Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.

ObjectiveTo address the limitations of the current quality standard for Polygalae Radix（PR）， which relies on a single component for quality assessment and struggles to holistically control its intrinsic quality， by constructing a comprehensive quality evaluation system integrating "macro-characterization of chemical profile， synchronous quantification of multiple index components， and quantitative analysis of multi-components by single marker（QAMS） for key component groups". This study aims to facilitate the scientific revision of the quality standard for PR. MethodsHigh performance liquid chromatography（HPLC） characteristic chromatograms were established for 11 batches of PR medicinal materials（YZ）， 10 batches of PR decoction pieces（YP）， and 10 batches of licorice-processed PR decoction pieces（ZYZ）， followed by similarity evaluation and identification of common peaks. HPLC-QAMS was developed for xanthones（sibiricaxanthone B， polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， polygalaxanthone Ⅲ） in the characteristic chromatograms. Simultaneously， the external standard method（ESM） was used to determine the contents of the corresponding xanthones and 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose in YZ， YP， and ZYZ， followed by multivariate statistical analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. ResultsThe similarity between the characteristic chromatograms of 31 batches of PR samples and the reference chromatogram was>0.9. A total of 13 common peaks were identified， and 10 of these peaks were characterized through reference standard comparison. The successfully constructed QAMS method showed that the relative correction factors（RCFs） of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ to polygalaxanthone Ⅲ were 0.76 and 0.88， and their relative retention times（RRTs） were 0.85 and 0.97， respectively. The results calculated by the QAMS method showed no significant difference from those obtained by the ESM. According to the limit standard for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in the 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China（hereinafter referred to as the Chinese Pharmacopoeia）， the pass rate of 31 batches of samples was only 19.35%. Multivariate statistical analysis indicated certain compositional differences between different batches of YZ and YP， as well as between YP and ZYZ， with 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose identified as the main differentiating component. Furthermore， correlation analysis revealed that the content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ was positively correlated with the contents of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， but showed no association with the content of 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose. ConclusionIt is recommended that the content limit for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in YZ，YP and ZYZ be revised to not less than 0.07%， or the total content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ， sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ be not less than 0.18%. The newly established triple quality control model of "holistic control via characteristic chromatograms， precise quantification of oligosaccharide esters， and efficient detection of xanthones by QAMS" provides a systematic and precise solution for quality evaluation of PR and similar Chinese herbal medicines.

Depression is a common mental disorder that falls under the category of "stagnation syndrome" in traditional Chinese medicine （TCM）. Its complex pathogenesis poses challenges for the development of novel therapeutic agents. Currently， clinically used antidepressants are often accompanied by significant side effects， and statistics show that about one-third of patients do not respond to these medications. TCM demonstrates advantages in the treatment of depression through multi-target， multi-pathway and multi-mechanistic approaches. Pinelliae Rhizoma， a phlegm-resolving herb， exhibits effects such as drying dampness and resolving phlegm， as well as eliminating stuffiness and reducing masses. The characteristics of harmonizing Yin and Yang and resolving stagnation in the middle energizer align precisely with the pathogenesis of depression syndrome， demonstrating therapeutic efficacy in affected patients. Literature studies have found that the active ingredients of Pinelliae Rhizoma， such as cavidine， baicalein， β-sitosterol， as well as Pinelliae Rhizoma herb pairs， such as Pinelliae Rhizoma-Magnoliae Officinalis Cortex， Pinelliae Rhizoma-husked sorghum， Pinelliae Rhizoma-Prunellae Spica， exhibit significant antidepressant effects. Furthermore， TCM formulas containing Pinelliae Rhizoma as the principal therapeutic agent， such as Banxia Xiexin Tang， Banxia Houpo Tang， and Wendan Tang， as well as formulas incorporating Pinelliae Rhizoma like compound Xiaochaihu Tang， Chaihu Jia Longgu Muli Tang， and Erchen Tang， have also demonstrated favorable antidepressant efficacy. The antidepressant mechanism of these agents may involve modulation of 5-hydroxytryptamine （5-HT） and dopamine （DA） levels， up-regulation of brain-derived neurotrophic factor （BDNF） expression， regulation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal （HPA） axis， reduction of oxidative stress， modulation of nuclear transcription factor-κB （NF-κB） signaling pathway， and inhibition of microglia-mediated inflammatory responses. This review summarized the antidepressant mechanisms and clinical applications of the active components， herb pairs， and TCM formulas containing Pinelliae Rhizoma， aiming to provide a reference for modern research on the use of Pinelliae Rhizoma in antidepressant therapy.

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a central neurodegenerative disease characterized by progressive cognitive decline and memory impairment in clinical. Currently, there are no effective treatments for AD. In recent years, a variety of therapeutic approaches from different perspectives have been explored to treat AD. Although the drug therapies targeted at the clearance of amyloid β-protein (Aβ) had made a breakthrough in clinical trials, there were associated with adverse events. Neuroinflammation plays a crucial role in the onset and progression of AD. Continuous neuroinflammatory was considered to be the third major pathological feature of AD, which could promote the formation of extracellular amyloid plaques and intracellular neurofibrillary tangles. At the same time, these toxic substances could accelerate the development of neuroinflammation, form a vicious cycle, and exacerbate disease progression. Reducing neuroinflammation could break the feedback loop pattern between neuroinflammation, Aβ plaque deposition and Tau tangles, which might be an effective therapeutic strategy for treating AD. Traditional Chinese herbs such as Polygonum multiflorum and Curcuma were utilized in the treatment of AD due to their ability to mitigate neuroinflammation. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen and indomethacin had been shown to reduce the level of inflammasomes in the body, and taking these drugs was associated with a low incidence of AD. Biosynthetic nanomaterials loaded with oxytocin were demonstrated to have the capability to anti-inflammatory and penetrate the blood-brain barrier effectively, and they played an anti-inflammatory role via sustained-releasing oxytocin in the brain. Transplantation of mesenchymal stem cells could reduce neuroinflammation and inhibit the activation of microglia. The secretion of mesenchymal stem cells could not only improve neuroinflammation, but also exert a multi-target comprehensive therapeutic effect, making it potentially more suitable for the treatment of AD. Enhancing the level of TREM2 in microglial cells using gene editing technologies, or application of TREM2 antibodies such as Ab-T1, hT2AB could improve microglial cell function and reduce the level of neuroinflammation, which might be a potential treatment for AD. Probiotic therapy, fecal flora transplantation, antibiotic therapy, and dietary intervention could reshape the composition of the gut microbiota and alleviate neuroinflammation through the gut-brain axis. However, the drugs of sodium oligomannose remain controversial. Both exercise intervention and electromagnetic intervention had the potential to attenuate neuroinflammation, thereby delaying AD process. This article focuses on the role of drug therapy, gene therapy, stem cell therapy, gut microbiota therapy, exercise intervention, and brain stimulation in improving neuroinflammation in recent years, aiming to provide a novel insight for the treatment of AD by intervening neuroinflammation in the future.

Objective : To investigate the protective effect of dimethyl fumarate(DMF) on maternal intrahepatic cholestasis(ICP) during pregnancy induced by di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate(DEHP) exposure and its mechanism. Methods : Thirty-two 8-week-old female institute of cancer research(ICR) mice were randomly divided into 4 groups: Ctrl group, DEHP group, DMF group and DEHP+DMF group. DEHP and DEHP+DMF groups were treated with DEHP(200 mg/kg) by gavage every morning at 9:00 a.m. DMF and DEHP+DMF groups were treated with DMF(150 mg/kg) from day 13 to day 16 of gestation by gavage. After completion of gavage on day 16 of pregnancy, maternal blood, maternal liver, placenta, and amniotic fluid were collected from pregnant mice after a six-hour abrosia. The body weight of the mother rats and the body weight of the fetus rats were sorted and analyzed; the levels of total bile acid(TBA), alkaline phosphatase(ALP), aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase(AST/ALT) in serum and TBA in liver, amniotic fluid and placenta were detected by biochemical analyzer; HE staining was used to observe the pathological changes of liver tissue; Quantitative reverse transcription PCR(RT-qPCR) was used to detect the expression levels of tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α), interleukin(IL)-6, IL-1, IL-18 and NOD-like receptor thermal protein domain associated protein 3(NLRP3) in the liver; Western blot was used to detect the expression of the nuclear factor KappaB(NF-κB) and NLRP3. Results : Compared with the control group, the body weight of the DEHP-treated dams and pups decreased(P<0.05); the levels of TBA, ALP, AST/ALT in the serum of dams and the levels of TBA in the liver, amniotic fluid, and placenta of dams increased(P<0.05); the histopathological results showed that liver tissue was damaged, bile ducts were deformed, and there was inflammatory cell infiltration around them; the levels of inflammation-related factors TNF-α, IL-6, IL-1, IL-18 and NLRP3 transcription in maternal liver increased(P<0.05); the expression of NF-κB and NLRP3 protein in maternal liver significantly increased( P<0. 05). Compared with the DEHP group,the body weight of both dams and fetuses significantly increased in DEHP + DMF group( P<0. 05); the levels of TBA,ALP,AST/ALT in the serum of dams and amniotic fluid of fetuses decreased( P<0. 05); the degree of liver lesions was improved; the transcription levels of inflammation-related factors TNF-α,IL-6,IL-1,IL-18 and NLRP3 in maternal liver decreased( P<0. 05); the expression of NF-κB and NLRP3 protein in maternal liver significantly decreased( P<0. 05). Conclusion DMF can effectively protect the DEHP exposure to lead to female ICP,and its mechanism may be through inhibiting the NF-κB/NLRP3 pathway and reducing liver inflammation.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the mechanism of Pangshi antai zhixue decoction in the improvement of spontaneous abortion with heat syndrome by regulating the NOD-like receptor protein 3 （NLRP3） inflammasome. METHODS The binding activities of 13 main components in Pangshi antai zhixue decoction with NLRP3， apoptosis-associated speck-like protein ， containing a CARD （ASC）， and caspase-1 precursor （pro- No.20-21ZY1053） caspase-1） were predicted by molecular docking. Sixty 1-day-old pregnant rats were randomly divided into normal group， model group， dexamethasone group （0.002 g/kg）， and Pangshi antai zhixue decoction low-， medium-， and high-dose groups （11.025， 22.05， 44.10 g/kg）， with 10 rats in each group. Each group was given distilled water/corresponding medicinal solution intragastrically， once a day， for 12 consecutive days. Except for normal group， other groups were given traditional Chinese medicine for warming yang and mifepristone to establish a model of spontaneous abortion with heat syndrome. 24 h after the last medication， serum levels of triiodothyronine （T3）， thyroxine （T4）， interleukin-2 （IL-2）， IL-4， IL-6， IL-10， and interferon-γ （IFN-γ） were all detected； the abortion rate and uterine coefficient were calculated； the pathological morphology of the pregnant uterus was observed； protein expressions of NLRP3， ASC and caspase-1 were detected. RESULTS The molecular docking results showed that the binding energies of 13 main components of Pangshi antai zhixue decoction with NLRP3， ASC， and pro-caspase-1 were all less than －5 kJ/moL. The animal experiment results showed that compared with normal group， the uterine coefficient and serum levels of IL-4， IL-6 and IL-10 were decreased significantly in model group （P＜0.05）； the abortion rate and serum levels of T3， T4， IL-2 and IFN-γ as well as protein expressions of NLRP3， ASC and caspase-1 were increased significantly （P＜0.05）； there were abortion lesions in the pregnant endometrium. Compared with the model group， most of the quantitative indicators mentioned above were significantly reversed in Pangshi antai zhixue decoction groups （P＜0.05）， and the endometrial miscarriage lesions in pregnancy were improved to varying degrees. CONCLUSIONS Pangshi antai zhixue decoction influences the immune balance between mother and fetus by regulating the formation of NLRP3 inflammasome， down-regulating pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IFN-γ and IL-2， and up-regulating anti-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-4， IL-6 and IL-10， thereby improving spontaneous abortion with heat syndrome.

OBJECTIVE To establish the fingerprint of Pinghuo tea standard decoction and a method for determination of multi-component to clarify the transfer relationship of quantities and quality from pieces and standard decoction. METHODS Fifteen batches of Pinghuo tea standard decoction were prepared and the extract rate was determined； the fingerprint of the preparation was established by using high-performance liquid chromatography（HPLC）； the similarity evaluation and the determination of common peaks were performed， and chemometric analysis was performed； the same method was used to determine the content of indicator components and the transfer rate was calculated. The chromatographic column was Venusil C18 column with mobile phase consisted of acetonitrile-0.1% phosphoric acid solution （gradient elution）； the column temperature was 30 ℃， and the detection wavelengths were 238 nm （0-37 min， 85-102 min） and 330 nm （37-85 min） at a flow rate of 1.0 mL/min with an injection volume of 10 μL. RESULTS The similarity of HPLC fingerprints for 15 batches of Pinghuo tea standard decoction was not lower than 0.968. A total of 24 common peaks were calibrated and 9 peaks were recognized， which were as follows neochlorogenic acid （peak 3）， chlorogenic acid （peak 6）， geniposide （peak 9）， glycyrrhizin （peak 10）， galuteolin （peak 11）， isochlorogenic acid A （peak 14）， luteolin （peak 21）， kaempferol （peak 23） and glycyrrhizic acid （peak 24）. Cluster analysis， principal component analysis and orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis showed consistent results， all of which could classify the 15 batches of samples into three categories. The linear range of indicator components in 15 batches of Pinghuo tea standard decoction， such as geniposide， luteolin， isochlorogenic acid A， glycyrrhizin， and glycyrrhizic acid， were 0.020 580-0.411 600， 0.001 617-0.080 850， 0.006 076-0.607 600， 0.005 125-0.071 740， and 0.017 288-0.432 200 mg/mL， respectively； RSDs of precision， repeatability， stability and recovery rate tests were all not higher than 4% （n＝6）. The mass fractions ranged 3.227 9-10.002 2， 0.297 4-0.554 6， 3.350 1-6.159 6， 0.720 6-1.073 3， 2.003 1-3.030 1 mg/g； transfer rates from the pieces and standard decoction were 19.762 8%-35.840 5%， 12.123 3%-21.254 0%， 46.097 2%-82.869 4%， 58.708 8%-91.629 6%， 39.114 3%-63.710 6%. The transfer rates of the extract from 15 batches of Pinghuo tea standard decoction ranged from 61.15%-84.68%. CONCLUSIONS Established HPLC fingerprint and content determination methods in this study are simple and accurate， which can provide reference for the quantitative value transfer study， quality control， clinical application and the development of subsequent formulations of Pinghuo tea standard decoction.

Background: s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model. Methods: Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort. Results: In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM). Conclusions Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.

Background: Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017–2022) and Shaoguan (2019–2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability. Results: During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women. Conclusion Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.