1.Predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk in hip fracture patients using explainable machine learning models
Fengting LU ; Xiaoming LI ; Dekui LI ; Xianyuan XIE ; Jiazhong WANG ; Qing YU ; Gan HUANG ; Jun SHEN
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(2):196-202
Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.
2.Optimization of Quality Standards for Polygalae Radix Based on Characteristic Chromatograms and QAMS for Xanthones
Humin XIE ; Xiaoqing CUI ; Weihong FENG ; Yu LU ; Xiaoqian LIU ; Xiaoli SUN ; Yanrong LI ; Zhimin WANG ; Chun LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(9):196-204
ObjectiveTo address the limitations of the current quality standard for Polygalae Radix(PR), which relies on a single component for quality assessment and struggles to holistically control its intrinsic quality, by constructing a comprehensive quality evaluation system integrating "macro-characterization of chemical profile, synchronous quantification of multiple index components, and quantitative analysis of multi-components by single marker(QAMS) for key component groups". This study aims to facilitate the scientific revision of the quality standard for PR. MethodsHigh performance liquid chromatography(HPLC) characteristic chromatograms were established for 11 batches of PR medicinal materials(YZ), 10 batches of PR decoction pieces(YP), and 10 batches of licorice-processed PR decoction pieces(ZYZ), followed by similarity evaluation and identification of common peaks. HPLC-QAMS was developed for xanthones(sibiricaxanthone B, polygalaxanthone Ⅺ, polygalaxanthone Ⅲ) in the characteristic chromatograms. Simultaneously, the external standard method(ESM) was used to determine the contents of the corresponding xanthones and 3,6'-disinapoyl sucrose in YZ, YP, and ZYZ, followed by multivariate statistical analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. ResultsThe similarity between the characteristic chromatograms of 31 batches of PR samples and the reference chromatogram was>0.9. A total of 13 common peaks were identified, and 10 of these peaks were characterized through reference standard comparison. The successfully constructed QAMS method showed that the relative correction factors(RCFs) of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ to polygalaxanthone Ⅲ were 0.76 and 0.88, and their relative retention times(RRTs) were 0.85 and 0.97, respectively. The results calculated by the QAMS method showed no significant difference from those obtained by the ESM. According to the limit standard for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in the 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China(hereinafter referred to as the Chinese Pharmacopoeia), the pass rate of 31 batches of samples was only 19.35%. Multivariate statistical analysis indicated certain compositional differences between different batches of YZ and YP, as well as between YP and ZYZ, with 3,6'-disinapoyl sucrose identified as the main differentiating component. Furthermore, correlation analysis revealed that the content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ was positively correlated with the contents of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ, but showed no association with the content of 3,6'-disinapoyl sucrose. ConclusionIt is recommended that the content limit for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in YZ,YP and ZYZ be revised to not less than 0.07%, or the total content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ, sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ be not less than 0.18%. The newly established triple quality control model of "holistic control via characteristic chromatograms, precise quantification of oligosaccharide esters, and efficient detection of xanthones by QAMS" provides a systematic and precise solution for quality evaluation of PR and similar Chinese herbal medicines.
3.Pinelliae Rhizoma and Its Prescription Compatibility for Depression Treatment: A Review
Zhe XIE ; Yifan SHI ; Linzhe SU ; Ming BAI ; Yucheng LI ; Baoying WANG ; Erping XU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(9):284-293
Depression is a common mental disorder that falls under the category of "stagnation syndrome" in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). Its complex pathogenesis poses challenges for the development of novel therapeutic agents. Currently, clinically used antidepressants are often accompanied by significant side effects, and statistics show that about one-third of patients do not respond to these medications. TCM demonstrates advantages in the treatment of depression through multi-target, multi-pathway and multi-mechanistic approaches. Pinelliae Rhizoma, a phlegm-resolving herb, exhibits effects such as drying dampness and resolving phlegm, as well as eliminating stuffiness and reducing masses. The characteristics of harmonizing Yin and Yang and resolving stagnation in the middle energizer align precisely with the pathogenesis of depression syndrome, demonstrating therapeutic efficacy in affected patients. Literature studies have found that the active ingredients of Pinelliae Rhizoma, such as cavidine, baicalein, β-sitosterol, as well as Pinelliae Rhizoma herb pairs, such as Pinelliae Rhizoma-Magnoliae Officinalis Cortex, Pinelliae Rhizoma-husked sorghum, Pinelliae Rhizoma-Prunellae Spica, exhibit significant antidepressant effects. Furthermore, TCM formulas containing Pinelliae Rhizoma as the principal therapeutic agent, such as Banxia Xiexin Tang, Banxia Houpo Tang, and Wendan Tang, as well as formulas incorporating Pinelliae Rhizoma like compound Xiaochaihu Tang, Chaihu Jia Longgu Muli Tang, and Erchen Tang, have also demonstrated favorable antidepressant efficacy. The antidepressant mechanism of these agents may involve modulation of 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) and dopamine (DA) levels, up-regulation of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) expression, regulation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, reduction of oxidative stress, modulation of nuclear transcription factor-κB (NF-κB) signaling pathway, and inhibition of microglia-mediated inflammatory responses. This review summarized the antidepressant mechanisms and clinical applications of the active components, herb pairs, and TCM formulas containing Pinelliae Rhizoma, aiming to provide a reference for modern research on the use of Pinelliae Rhizoma in antidepressant therapy.
4.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
5.Effects of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid combined with clomiphene on clinical efficacy,pregnancy and safety in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome
Hailing HU ; Qiongjiao ZHOU ; Dan XIE ; Yu CAI
China Pharmacy 2026;37(9):1190-1194
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (ω-3PUFA) combined with clomiphene on clinical efficacy, pregnancy and safety in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 112 PCOS patients who received treatment in Dept. of Obstetrics and Gynecology of Hunan Prevention and Treatment Institute for Occupational Diseases from January 2022 to December 2023. According to the different treatment regimens, the patients were divided into single-drug group (60 cases) and drug-combination group (52 cases). Single-drug group was given clomiphene orally, and drug-combination group was given clomiphene+ω-3PUFA. Clinical efficacy, pregnancy status and the occurrence of adverse drug reaction (ADR) as well as ovarian function and oxidative stress indexes before and after treatment were compared between 2 groups. RESULTS The overall response rate (90.38% vs. 71.67%), ovulation rate (84.62% vs. 61.67%), and pregnancy rate (51.92% vs. 26.67%) were all markedly higher in drug combination group than single drug group ( P <0.05). Before treatment, there was no statistical significance in ovarian function and oxidative stress indexes between 2 groups ( P >0.05). Compared with before treatment, serum anti-Müllerian hormone levels, inhibin B concentr ations, and the number of cystic follicles in 2 groups were decreased significantly after 12 weeks of treatment ( P <0.05). The endometrial thickness increased significantly ( P <0.05), while the serum levels of malondialdehyde and advanced oxidation protein products decreased significantly ( P <0.05); the activities of serum superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase increased significantly ( P <0.05); the improvement of drug combination group was significantly better than single drug group ( P <0.05). The ovarian volumes in both groups were significantly smaller after treatment compared to before treatment ( P <0.05), but there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups ( P >0.05). There was no significant difference in the overall incidence of ADR between the two groups during the treatment ( P >0.05). CONCLUSIONS The combination of ω-3PUFA and clomiphene has a definite therapeutic effect on PCOS, which can effectively reduce the body’s oxidative stress response, improve ovarian function, and increase ovulation and pregnancy rates.
6.Effects and mechanisms of action of Yiqi wenyang huwei decoction in improving bronchial asthma in rats
Yunqing YANG ; Jianyu XIE ; Wei TANG ; Chao YE ; Qiangqiang YU ; Peng SUN ; Yuping YANG ; Jianwei YU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(10):1264-1271
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Yiqi wenyang huwei decoction (YQWY) in improving airway inflammation and remodeling in rats with bronchial asthma (BA) based on the Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)/myeloid differentiation primary response protein 88 (MyD88)/nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) signaling pathway. METHODS Male SD rats were randomly divided into the normal group, the model group, the dexamethasone group (positive control, 0.5 mg/kg), and YQWY low-, medium- and high-dose groups (5, 10, 20 g/kg, calculated by the crude drug), with 8 rats in each group. Except for the normal group, rats in all other groups were sensitized twice with ovalbumin combined with aerosol challenge to establish a BA model. From day 14 to day 34 of the experiment, the rats in each group were administered the corresponding drug solution or normal saline intragastrically, once a day, 1 hour before aerosol challenge. At 24 hours after the final aerosol challenge, asthma symptom scores were assessed, serum levels of immunoglobulin E (IgE) were measured, and the levels of inflammatory cytokines (interleukin-4, interleukin-5, interleukin-13 and tumor necrosis factor-α) and the numbers of inflammatory cells (white blood cell, eosinophil, neutrophil, lymphocyte, monocyte and basophil) in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid were determined. Pathological changes in lung tissue were observed. The mRNA expressions of TLR4, MyD88 and NF-κB, as well as the protein expressions of TLR4, MyD88, NF-κB p65 and phosphorylated NF-κB p65 in lung tissue, were detected. RESULTS Compared with the model group, the pathological changes, such as inflammatory cell infiltration, abnormal deposition of collagen fibers, and goblet cell hyperplasia in the lung tissue of rats in each drug group, were alleviated to varying degrees. The asthma symptom scores (except for the YQWY low-dose group), the levels of IgE and inflammatory cytokines (except for interleukin-5 in the YQWY medium-dose group), the number of inflammatory cells (except for monocyte and basophil in the YQWY low-dose group), the mRNA expression of TLR4, MyD88 and NF-κB, as well as the protein expressions of TLR4, MyD88, NF-κB p65 and phosphorylated NF-κB p65 (except for MyD88 and NF-κB p65 proteins in the YQWY low-dose group as detected by Western blo t) were all significantly reduced or down-regulated ( P <0.05 or P <0.01). CONCLUSIONS YQWY can alleviate asthma-like manifestations in BA rats and improve their airway inflammation and remodeling; these effects may be related to the formula’s inhibition of the abnormal activation of the TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB signaling pathway.
7.Construction and evaluation of the pharmaceutical affairs management system for externally dispensed medications in medical institutions
Hongbao XIE ; Xiaoling YU ; Zhenwei CHEN ; Cuihong WU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(11):1393-1397
OBJECTIVE To establish a pharmaceutical management system for externally dispensed medicines in medical institutions, so as to improve medication safety and regulatory efficiency. METHODS Based on policy analysis and hospital practice, a pharmaceutical management system for externally dispensed medicines was constructed by integrating institutional frameworks, an information‑based platform and management procedures, and the management effectiveness was evaluated. RESULTS Our hospital formulated the Regulations on the Management of Externally Dispensed Medicines , which standardized catalogue selection, prescription issuance, acceptance and use, supervision and evaluation. An information‑based management platform for externally dispensed medicines was built relying on the hospital information system, enabling electronic prescription circulation, intelligent prescription review and whole‑process traceability. Institutional requirements and platform functions were embedded into three core management procedures, namely catalogue selection, prescription issuance, and medicine acceptance and use, forming a closed‑loop working mechanism. After the implementation of the management system, compared with pre‑implementation, the qualified rate of externally dispensed prescriptions increased from 85.2% to 99.3% ( P <0.001), the automatic prescription review pass rate exceeded 95%, the prescription review duration shortened from 7.2 min to 1.8 min ( P <0.001). All dimensional satisfaction scores of patients and medical staff were significantly improved, the standardization awareness of medical staff reached 100%. CONCLUSIONS The construction of a pharmaceutical management system for externally dispensed medicines with standardized institutional frameworks, informatized platforms and standardized procedures effectively enhances the rationality and management efficiency of externally dispensed prescription medicines, and provides a replicable practical pathway for the management of externally dispensed medicines in medical institutions.
8.Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for high altitude de-acclimatization syndrome
Yu DING ; Zejun WANG ; Jiaxin XIE ; Siyu ZHAO ; Gang ZHANG
Journal of Army Medical University 2025;47(1):20-29
Objective To construct risk models for predicting the occurrence of high altitude de-acclimatization syndrome(HADAS)in the population returning from the plateau to the plain based on different machine learning algorithms and validate the predicting efficiency of these models.Methods Field or online surveys were conducted on the individuals who had ended their high-altitude living and returned to the plain areas from November 2020 to February 2024.Basic information,chronic mountain sickness(CMS),HADAS symptoms and other data were collected.With the inclusion and exclusion criteria,totally 1 095 individuals were subjected and assigned into the modeling group.Positive events were defined as HADAS score>5.Then the modelling group was divided into a training set(n=766)and an internal test set(n=329)in a 7∶3 ratio.Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression was used to select independent variables.Risk prediction models for high-altitude adaptation symptoms were built based on 8 machine learning methods,including multiple factor logistic regression(LR),decision tree(DT),random forest(RF),eXtreme gradient boosting(XGB),support vector machine(SVM),K-nearest neighbor(KNN),light gradient boosting(LGB)and na?ve bayes(NB).The models were compared and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves and confusion matrices in the internal test set.The final model was presented using a nomogram or Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)algorithm.In August 2024,another 132 individuals who returned to the plains and met the same criteria were recruited and served as the external validation group.Results There were 549 individuals(50.14%)out of the 1 095 subjects having HADAS symptoms.LASSO regression identified CMS score,age and duration of high-altitude residence as significant predictors.Among the 8 machine learning algorithms,the LR model was identified as the best,with an area under the curve(AUC)value of 0.819(95%CI:0.789~0.850)and 0.841(95%CI:0.799~0.884),and an F1 score of 0.801 in the internal test set,respectively,and the AUC value and F1 score of the LR model were the largest among the 8 models in the internal test set.Spiegelhalter Z test of the calibration curve of the LR model indicated that its P=0.703 in the training set while P=0.281 in the internal test set.The AUC value of the LR model was 0.867(95%CI:0.765~0.969)in the external validation set.Conclusion The LR model constructed based on indicators including CMS score,age and duration of high-altitude residence has a good overall performance in the internal test set,and good discriminating effect in the external validation set.The constructed nomogram is convenient for application.
9.Paeoniflorin alleviates sepsis-associated acute kidney injury in mice by inhibiting aerobic glycolysis through the β-catenin/c-Myc pathway
Yu GONG ; Jiao LEI ; Ming ZHANG ; Jing XIE ; Ruonan LI ; Yuqing MA
Journal of Army Medical University 2025;47(2):132-140
Objective To investigate the role and mechanism of paeoniflorin(PF)in sepsis-associated acute kidney injury(SA-AKI)in mice.Methods Mouse SA-AKI model was constructed by intraperitoneal injection of 15 mg/kg LPS.Twenty-four male C57BL/6J mice(6~8 weeks old,weighing 20~25 g)were randomly divided into Control group,model group,PF group(intraperitoneally injected with 50 mg/kg PF 30 min before LPS administration),and β-catenin specific agonist BML284 group(10 mg/kg BML284 by intraperitoneal injection after 50 mg/kg PF administration).The renal histopathological changes were observed by HE staining and Paller scoring.ELISA was used to determine the contents of serum creatinine(Scr),neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin(NGAL)and lactate,and renal contents of hexokinase 2(HK2),lactate dehydrogenase A(LDHA),IL-1β and IL-18.Western blotting was performed to detect the expression of total β-catenin,p-β-cateninY654,nucleus β-catenin and c-Myc.Results Compared with the Control group,the LPS group showed obviously damaged renal tissue,higher Paller score(P<0.05),increased serum Scr and NGAL levels(P<0.05),elevated renal contents of aerobic glycolytic indexes such as HK2,LDHA and serum lactate,as well as contents of IL-1β and IL-18(P<0.05),and enhanced expression of total β-catenin,p-β-cateninY654,nucleus β-catenin and c-Myc in the renal tissue(P<0.05).PF treatment attenuated the renal tissue damage,decreased Paller score(P<0.05),reduced serum Scr and NGAL levels(P<0.05),HK2,LDHA and serum lactate levels,and contents of IL-1 β and IL-18 in renal tissues(P<0.05),and down-regulated the renal expression of total β-catenin,p-β-cateninY654,nucleusβ-catenin and c-Myc when compared with the levels in the model group(P<0.05).While,addition of BML284 reversed above effects of PF treatment with significant differences(P<0.05).Conclusion PF can alleviate SA-AKI,and its mechanism may be through its inhibiting the β-catenin/c-Myc pathway,thus reducing the aerobic glycolysis level and inflammatory response in renal tissue.
10.NK cell-specific knockout of UTX modulates pulmonary metastasis of melanoma in a sex-dependent manner
Pei HUANG ; Hongchen WANG ; He HUANG ; Jiaxin XIE ; Yu WU ; Simin ZHOU ; Xinyi LIAO ; Xiao GUAN
Journal of Army Medical University 2025;47(8):807-815
Objective To explore the role of X chromosome encoded epigenetic regulator UTX in NK cell-mediated anti-tumor activity.Methods Male Ncr1-iCre mice were crossed with female UTXfl/fl mice to generate F1 Ncr1-iCre+UTXfl/-male mice,which were further crossed with female UTXfl/fl mice to obtain male Ncr1-iCre-UTX fl/-control mice(M-Con)and NK-specific deletion of UTX male mice Ncr1-iCre+UTXfl/-(M-KO),as well as female Ncr1-iCre-UTXfl/fl control mice(F-Con)and UTX-deficient female mice Ncr1-iCre+UTXfl/fl(F-KO).UTX-deficient mice were injected with melanoma cell line B16F10 via tail vein to observe pulmonary metastatic tumor nodules.Moreover,flow cytometry was applied to detect the proportion and quantity of pulmonary NK cells(CD3-CD19-NK1.1+),maturation makers KLRG1 and CD11b,activation receptors NKG2D and CD69,and effector molecules,including perforin,granzyme B,CD107a,and IFN-γ.Then pulmonary NK cells were sorted and co-cultured with B16F10 cells,and the apoptosis of the melanoma cells was measured with flow cytometry.Results Compared with the M-Con mice,the M-KO mice presented less number of pulmonary tumor nodules(P<0.05),increased proportion and quantity of NK cells in the tumor microenvironment(P<0.01),though no obvious changes in the ratio of NK maturation makers KLRG1 to CD11b,enhanced expression level of cytotoxic molecule perforin(P<0.01),but no changes in the expression of effector molecule granzyme B,degranulation marker CD107a and cytokine IFN-γ in NK cells.Co-culture of NK cells and B16F10 cells promoted the apoptosis of tumor cells(P<0.05).Compared with the F-Con mice,the F-KO mice had no statistical difference in the number of pulmonary tumor nodules,but larger proportion and number of NK cells(P<0.05),decreased ratio of KLRG1 to CD11b(P<0.01),elevated level of perforin but decreased levels of granzyme B,CD107a and IFN-γ in NK cells(P<0.01).The co-culture of NK cells and B16F10 cells reduced the apoptosis of tumor cells in F-KO female mice(P<0.05).Conclusion NK-specific deletion of UTX regulates pulmonary metastasis of melanoma in a sex-dependent manner.


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