1.Interleukin-33 Knockout Promotes High Mobility Group Box 1 Release from Astrocytes by Acetylation Mediated by P300/CBP-Associated Factor in Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis.
Yifan XIAO ; Liyan HAO ; Xinyi CAO ; Yibo ZHANG ; Qingqing XU ; Luyao QIN ; Yixuan ZHANG ; Yangxingzi WU ; Hongyan ZHOU ; Mengjuan WU ; Mingshan PI ; Qi XIONG ; Youhua YANG ; Yuran GUI ; Wei LIU ; Fang ZHENG ; Xiji SHU ; Yiyuan XIA
Neuroscience Bulletin 2025;41(7):1181-1197
High mobility group box 1 (HMGB1), when released extracellularly, plays a pivotal role in the development of spinal cord synapses and exacerbates autoimmune diseases within the central nervous system. In experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a condition that models multiple sclerosis, the levels of extracellular HMGB1 and interleukin-33 (IL-33) have been found to be inversely correlated. However, the mechanism by which IL-33 deficiency enhances HMGB1 release during EAE remains elusive. Our study elucidates a potential signaling pathway whereby the absence of IL-33 leads to increased binding of P300/CBP-associated factor with HMGB1 in the nuclei of astrocytes, upregulating HMGB1 acetylation and promoting its release from astrocyte nuclei in the spinal cord of EAE mice. Conversely, the addition of IL-33 counteracts the TNF-α-induced increase in HMGB1 and acetylated HMGB1 levels in primary astrocytes. These findings underscore the potential of IL-33-associated signaling pathways as a therapeutic target for EAE treatment.
Animals
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Encephalomyelitis, Autoimmune, Experimental/metabolism*
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Astrocytes/metabolism*
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Interleukin-33/metabolism*
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HMGB1 Protein/metabolism*
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Acetylation
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Mice, Knockout
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Mice, Inbred C57BL
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p300-CBP Transcription Factors/metabolism*
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Mice
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Spinal Cord/metabolism*
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Cells, Cultured
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Female
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Signal Transduction
2.The establishment of quality indicator system of interventional nursing based on Donabedian quality structure model
Zhengli HUANG ; Xiaoyan WANG ; Youhua XUE ; Xuemei WANG ; Yang XU
Journal of Interventional Radiology 2024;33(7):785-789
Objective To establish a quality indicator system of interventional nursing.Methods Taking Donabedian quality structure model as the theoretical basis and through literature analysis,expert meeting and summarizing the clinical problems,the first draft about interventional nursing care quality indicators was composed,which included 3 first-level indicators,12 second-level indicators and 55 third-level indicators.A total of 27 experts on interventional nursing and nursing administration were selected from 25 grade-3A level hospitals in 13 provinces and cities of China.The Delphi method was used to conduct two rounds of expert correspondence consultation,and the quality indicator system of interventional nursing was established.Results Finally,a quality indicator system of interventional nursing,which included 3 first-level indicators,7 second-level indicators and 29 third-level indicators,was formulated.In both the two rounds of expert letter inquiry,the positive coefficient and authority coefficient were 100%and 0.95 respectively.The coefficient of variation of each index in the first and the second round of expert letter inquiry was 0-0.25 and 0-0.21 respectively.In the first round of expert letter inquiry,the Kendall harmony coefficients of the first-level,second-level and third-level indexes were 0.672,0.271 and 0.341 respectively,while in the second round of expert letter inquiry,the Kendall harmony coefficients of the first-level,second-level and third-level indexes were 0.462,0.475 and 0.330 respectively,the differences were statistically significant(all P<0.01).Conclusion The quality indicator system of interventional nursing established in this study carries a relatively high reliability and scientific nature,and it can provide reference for evaluating and monitoring the safety and quality control in interventional nursing.
3.Locking compression plating for treatment of periprosthetic distal femur fractures in the aged
Yake LIU ; Zhenyu ZHOU ; Ran TAO ; Yi CAO ; Jianwei ZHU ; Youhua WANG ; Yue LU ; Hua XU ; Jiacheng XU ; Hongdong MA ; Jining SHEN ; Fengxiang ZHAO ; Kefan WU ; Fan LIU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedic Trauma 2024;26(9):790-796
Objective:To explore the clinical outcomes of locking compression plating (LCP) in the treatment of periprosthetic fracture (PPF) of the distal femur in the aged patients.Methods:A retrospective study was performed to analyze the 31 aged patients who had been treated at Department of Orthopedic Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital to Nantong University for PPF of the distal femur with LCP between June 2012 and May 2023. There were 27 females and 4 males with an age of (80.2±6.1) years. According to the Unified Classification System (UCS), 18 PPFs were classified as type Ⅴ.3B1 and 6 PPFs as type Ⅴ.3B2 after total knee arthroplasty and 7 PPFs as type Ⅳ.3C after total hip arthroplasty. The patients were fixated with a lateral single plate in 25 cases, and with lateral and medial dual plates in 6 cases. The surgical time, intraoperative blood loss, hospitalization time, postoperative weight-bearing time, fracture healing time, and knee joint function and complications during follow-up were recorded.Results:For the 25 patients undergoing fixation with a lateral single plate, the surgical time was (58.7±7.9) minutes, the intraoperative blood loss (78.0±15.1) mL, the hospitalization time (6.9±1.6) days, the postoperative weight-bearing time (5.9±1.4) days, and the follow-up time 37 (15, 51) months. For the 6 patients undergoing fixation with lateral and medial dual plates, the surgical time was (186.6±9.8) minutes, the intraoperative blood loss (1,256.7±231.2) mL, the hospitalization time (17.8±3.3) days, the postoperative weight-bearing time (3.6±0.6) days, and the follow-up time 17 (16, 21) months. The fracture healing time was (14.9±2.0) and (18.7±2.6) weeks, respectively, for patients fixed with single and double steel plates. By the scoring criteria of the American Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS), the knee joint function was evaluated at the last follow-up as excellent in 10 cases and as good in 15 cases for the 25 patients undergoing fixation with a lateral single plate, and as good for all the 6 patients undergoing fixation with lateral and medial dual plates. No patient experienced such complications as incision infection, bone nonunion, or internal fixation failure during the follow-up period.Conclusions:LCP fixation can achieve satisfactory outcomes in the treatment of PPF of the distal femur in the aged patients. As fixation with a single lateral femoral plate is suitable for most of the aged patients with PPF of the distal femur, it can be used as the first choice. Fixation with dual plates can provide stronger stability, but its indications should be strictly controlled.
4.Failure mode and long-term survival after neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
Ruiqi WANG ; Lin WANG ; Xiao HU ; Honglian MA ; Guoqin QIU ; Zhun WANG ; Xiaojiang SUN ; Yongling JI ; Xiaojing LAI ; Wei FENG ; Liming SHENG ; Yuezhen WANG ; Xia ZHOU ; Youhua JIANG ; Changchun WANG ; Qiang ZHAO ; Xun YANG ; Jinshi LIU ; Jian ZENG ; Haitao JIANG ; Pu LI ; Xianghui DU ; Qixun CHEN ; Yujin XU
Chinese Journal of Radiation Oncology 2023;32(4):301-306
Objective:To analyze the fail mode of neoadjuvant therapy combined with surgery for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after long-term follow-up.Methods:Clinical data of consecutive 238 patients with locally advanced resectable ESCC who underwent neoadjuvant therapy combined with surgery in Zhejiang Cancer Hospital from September 2012 to October 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. The failure mode in the whole cohort was analyzed after long-term follow-up. The overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) rates were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method. Survival differences were determined by log-rank test.Results:The pathological complete response (pCR) rate was 42.0% in 238 patients. After a median follow-up of 46.1 months, tumor progression occurred in 96 patients (40.3%), including 25 patients (10.5%) with local recurrence, 61 patients (25.6%) with distant metastases, and 10 patients (4.2%) with simultaneous local recurrence and distant metastases. The median OS and DFS were 64.7 months and 49.9 months. And the 3-, 5-, and 7-year OS and DFS rates were 70.0%, 52.8%, 36.4% and 63.5%, 42.5%, and 30.0%, respectively. The 3-, 5-, and 7-year locoregional recurrence-free survival rates and distant metastasis-free survival rates were 86.0%, 71.4%, 61.2% and 70.6%, 55.9%, 43.0%. Compared with non-pCR patients, the overall progression rate and distant metastasis rate of pCR patients were lower (26.0% vs. 50.7%, 16.0% vs. 32.6%, both P<0.05). And the 3-, 5-, and 7-year OS (83.0% vs. 60.2%, 69.7% vs. 41.7%, 50.4% vs. 27.7%, all P<0.001) and DFS rates (80.4% vs. 51.4%, 63.9% vs. 31.2%, 45.9% vs. 20.3%, all P<0.001) were significantly better in pCR patients. Conclusions:Distant metastasis is the main failure mode of patients with locally advanced ESCC after neoadjuvant therapy. Patients with postoperative pCR can achieve better long-term survival.
5.Analysis of failure patterns and survival after SBRT for 147 cases of T 1-2N 0M 0 stage non-small cell lung cancer
Lin WANG ; Ruiqi WANG ; Baiqiang DONG ; Xiao HU ; Honglian MA ; Zhun WANG ; Xiaojing LAI ; Wei FENG ; Xiao LIN ; Youhua JIANG ; Changchun WANG ; Qiang ZHAO ; Haitao JIANG ; Pu LI ; Xianghui DU ; Ming CHEN ; Qixun CHEN ; Yujin XU
Chinese Journal of Radiation Oncology 2023;32(8):683-688
Objective:To analyze the failure patterns and survival after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in patients with T 1-2N 0M 0 non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). Methods:Clinical data of early-stage NSCLC patients who received SBRT at Zhejiang Cancer Hospital from January 2012 to September 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. The primary observed endpoint was the pattern of disease progression, which was divided into intra-field recurrence, regional lymph node recurrence and distant metastasis. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate analysis was conducted by log-rank test, and multivariate analysis was performed by Cox's model.Results:A total of 147 patients with 156 lesions were included. The median follow-up time was 44.0 months (16.5-95.5 months). A total of 57 patients (38.8%) progressed: 14 patients (24.5%) had recurrence with the 1-, 3-, and 5-year local recurrence rates of 2.0%, 10.9%, and 14.3%, respectively; 36 patients (63.2%) had Distant metastasis with the 1-, 3- and 5-year distant metastasis rates of 12.2%, 22.4% and 28.6%, respectively; and 7 patients (12.3%) had recurrence complicated with distant metastasis. The 3-, 5- and 7-year OS rates were 80.5%, 64.2% and 49.9% for all patients, respectively. The median OS was 78.4 months. The 3-, 5- and 7-year PFS rates were 64.8%,49.5% and 41.5%, with a median PFS of 57.9 months (95% CI: 42.3-73.5 months). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that biologically equivalent dose and age were the factors affecting the efficacy of SBRT (both P<0.05). Conclusion:Distant metastasis is the main failure pattern in patients with T 1-2N 0M 0 NSCLC after SBRT. High-risk population should be selected for further systematic treatment to improve the efficacy.
6.Combination pattern of internal fixation for periprosthesis fractures of the proximal femur after hip replacement
Yake LIU ; Zhenyu ZHOU ; Ran TAO ; Yi CAO ; Jianwei ZHU ; Youhua WANG ; Yue LU ; Hua XU ; Xingli BAO ; Fan LIU ; Jining SHEN ; Xiaoliang SUN ; Yanglin GU ; Jian TANG ; Jun LIU ; Ranran ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2023;43(3):155-163
Objective:To investigate the combination of internal fixation for periprosthetic fractures of the proximal femur (PFFF) after hip arthroplasty.Methods:The data of 58 patients with periprosthetic fractures after hip arthroplasty from May 2008 to March 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including 31 males and 27 females. The average age was 75.5±18.2 years (range, 35-95 years). There were 39 total hip arthroplasty and 19 hemiarthroplasty; 37 biological prosthesis and 21 cemented prosthesis. Intraoperative periprosthetic fractures occurred in 6 cases and 52 cases postoperatively. Unified classification system (UCS): UCS IV.3A1 type 2 cases, 3A2 type 1 case, 3B1.1 type 19 cases, 3B2.1 type 25 cases, 3B3 type 2 cases, 3C type 9 cases. Fracture site: 3 cases in zone A (greater trochanter), 46 cases in zone B (around the femoral stem), and 9 cases in zone C (distal to the tip of the femoral stem. Internal fixation is composed of primary and secondary fixation, the main fixation method was the cerclage of steel wire or titanium cable, locking compression plate, and locking attachment plate fixation. The secondary fixation method was the cerclage of titanium cable, which was required to cover three zones A, B and C to form an overall balanced fixation. The modified Harris hip scores (mHHS), plate length, working length and screw number of different internal fixation combinations were compared.Results:The follow-up time was 54.2±21.6 months (range, 11-86 months). All patients showed signs of fracture healing at 10.2±1.5 weeks (range, 7-13 weeks) after operation, and bony union was observed at 19.6±1.3 weeks (range, 17-22 weeks) after operation. No delayed union or nonunion was observed. After operation, one case had a stress fracture and was revised with double-plate internal fixation; one case had a failed internal fixation and was revised with double-plate internal fixation and a large allograft bone graft. The mHHS score of UCSIV.3B2.1 group (80.3±4.6) was the lowest at 6 months after operation, and the difference between the groups of different types was statistically significant ( F=256.72, P<0.001). The score of simple internal fixation group (91.6±4.2) was higher than that of revision combined with internal fixation group (81.9±4.1), and the difference was statistically significant ( t=8.32, P<0.001). The plate length and working length were 24.9±2.5 cm and 12.6±1.7 cm for UCS IV.3B1.1, 25.4±2.6 cm and 13.6±1.8 cm for 3B2.1 and 28.1±2.5 cm and 4.9±1.9 cm for 3C, respectively ( F=5.33, P=0.005; F=6.78, P<0.001). The number of screws in zone A was significant difference among different UCS types ( F=52.67, P<0.001); UCS IV.3B1.1 (6.5±2.3) and 3B2.1 (6.7±2.2) were more than 3B3 (3.5±1.5) and 3C (3.7±1.6). The number of screws in zone B was significant difference among different UCS types ( F=42.15, P<0.001); The number of UCS IV.3B1.1 (2.3±1.6) and 3B2.1 (2.8±1.9) were significantly more than that of 3B3 (1.0±0.5) and 3C (1.2±0.6). The number of screws in zone C was significant differences among different UCS types ( F=39.62, P<0.001); The number of UCS IV.3B1.1 (3.8±1.9) and 3B2.1 (3.9±1.7) were more than that of 3B3 (2.0±0.5), the difference was statistically significant ( P<0.05). Conclusion:The function of hip after simple internal fixation of proximal femoral periprosthetic fractures was better than that of those who underwent revision at the same time; the number of screws of UCSIV.B1 and B2 is more than that of B3.
7.A 2-year follow-up analysis of diabetic patients and high-risk groups in a community in Shanghai
Youhua YAO ; Lei XU ; Shiping WANG ; Yong BAO
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2023;35(8):799-803
ObjectiveA high-risk group of diabetes in a community in Shanghai was followed up for 2 years. The level of blood glucose control was monitored, the incidence and risk factors of the high-risk group were analyzed, and the incidence and risk factors distribution in the community were studied. The results will provide a basis for the community to formulate strategies for early prevention and treatment of diabetes in Shanghai. MethodsA total of 580 subjects were collected, according to the criteria of high-risk groups of diabetes. Among them, 77 people whose blood glucose had reached the diagnostic criteria for diabetes entered the patient group, and the rest 503 people entered the high-risk group. Corresponding intervention methods such as outpatient follow-up and health education were given, and blood glucose monitoring was repeated at the 12th month and 24th month after enrollment. Blood glucose control, new-onset diabetes and the effect of intervention were analyzed. ResultsThe patients’ venous fasting blood glucose level at the 12th and 24th month was significantly lower than that at the baseline survey, and there was no significant change in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference. Subjects in patient group were older and had a higher proportion of a history of impaired glycemic regulation, family history of diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia than those in high-risk group. In the high-risk group of 503 cases, 74 (14.7%) were new-onset diabetics during the follow-up period, A higher proportion of new-onset diabetics were male, BMI, a combined history of impaired glucose regulation and gestational diabetes history of gestational diabetes mellitus (women only) was a contributing factor to the onset of diabetes. ConclusionHigh-risk groups are more susceptible to diabetes; patients in the diabetes group have better control of fasting blood glucose levels during the 2-year follow-up period, and outpatient follow-up combined with comprehensive interventions helps diabetic patients to control blood glucose.
8.Applicability of feature selection combined with Boosting algorithm in severity prediction of non-fatal occupational injuries in miners
Youhua MO ; Ting XU ; Shidi MENG ; Xiaojun ZHU ; Jingguang FAN
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2023;40(10):1115-1120
Background Identification and analysis of influencing factors of occupational injury is an important research content of feature selection. In recent years, with the rise of machine learning algorithms, feature selection combined with Boosting algorithm provides a new analysis idea to construct occupational injury prediction models. Objective To evaluate applicability of Boosting algorithm-based model in predicting severity of miners' non-fatal occupational injuries, and provide a basis for rationally predicting the severity level of miners' non-fatal occupational injuries. Methods The publicly available data of the US Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) from 2001 to 2021 on metal miners' non-fatal occupational injuries were used, and the outcome variables were lost working days < 105 d (minor injury) and ≥ 105 d (serious injury). Four different feature sets were screened out by four feature selection methods including least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression, stepwise regression, single factor + Lasso regression, and single factor + stepwise regression. Logistic regression, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were selected to construct prediction models by training with the four feature sets. A total of 12 prediction models of severity of miners' non-fatal occupational injuries were built and their area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index were calculated for model evaluation. Results According to the results of four feature selection methods, age, time of accident occurrence, total length of service, cause of injury, activities that triggered injury occurrence, body part of injury, nature of injury, and outcome of injury were identified as influencing factors of non-fatal occupational injury severity in miners. Feature set 4 was the optimal set screened out by single factor+stepwise regression and the GBDT model presented the best predictive performance in predicting the severity of non-fatal occupational injuries. The associated specificity, sensitivity, and Youden index were 0.7530, 0.9490, and 0.7020, respectively. The AUC values of logistic regression, GBDT, and XGBoost models trained by feature set 4 were 0.8526 (95%CI: 0.8387, 0.8750), 0.8640 (95%CI: 0.8474, 0.8806), and 0.8603 (95%CI: 0.8439, 0.8773), respectively, higher than the AUC values trained by feature set 2 [0.8487 (95%CI: 0.8203, 0.8669), 0.8110 (95%CI: 0.8012, 0.8344), and 0.8439 (95%CI: 0.8245, 0.8561), respectively] . The AUC values of GBDT and XGBoost models trained by feature set 4 were higher than that of logistic regression model. Conclusion The performance of the prediction models constructed by predictors screened out by two feature selection methods is better than those by single feature selection methods. At the same time, under the condition of optimal feature set, the performance of model prediction based on Boosting is better than that of traditional logistic regression model.
9.Disease burden of deaths attributable to occupational injuries in China from 1990 to 2019
Shidi MENG ; Ting XU ; Youhua MO ; Xiaojun ZHU
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2023;40(10):1121-1127
Background Occupational injuries are one of the leading causes of death or disability in occupational populations. According to the World Health Organization and the International Labour Organization, occupational injuries were the occupational contributor responsible for the largest loss of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) globally in 2016. Objective To analyze the burden of deaths attributed to occupational injuries in Chinese population from 1990 to 2019, and provide a reference for further construction of occupational injury surveillance system. Methods Using the results and data of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019), this study estimated the burden of deaths attributable to occupational injuries by year, sex, and age groups, and the indicators included deaths, years of life lost (YLL), mortality, and YLL rates. Age-standardized rates of deaths and YLL rates were calculated using a world standard population presented by GBD 2019. Annualized rate of change (ARC) was use to evaluate changes in the indicators over time. All results were presented as point estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (95%UI). Results In 2019, the deaths attributable to occupational injuries among women in China accounted for 33.16% of that among world's women, their YLL accounted for 31.88%, and the two indicators among Chinese men accounted for 17.98% and 17.09%, respectively. Compared with 1990, the standardized mortality rate and the standardized YLL rate attributable to occupational injuries in China in 2019 decreased, among which the ARCs of the standardized mortality rate in the whole population, men, and women were −0.68 (95%UI: −0.78, −0.51), −0.68 (95%UI: −0.80, −0.47), and −0.68 (95%UI: −0.82, −0.46), respectively. The ARCs of the standardized YLL rate in the whole population, men, and women were −0.68 (95%UI: −0.78, −0.51), −0.67 (95%UI: −0.80, −0.48), and −0.68 (95%UI: −0.81, −0.44), respectively. Absolute values of the ARCs of the standardized mortality rate and the standardized YLL rate attributable to occupational injuries from 1990 to 2010 were higher than those from 2010 to 2019. The ARCs of the standardized YLL rate for road injuries, falls, and drowning from 1990 to 2010 were −0.55 (95%UI: −0.67, −0.36), −0.57 (95%UI: −0.73, −0.38), −0.77 (95%UI: −0.84, −0.63), and the ARCs from 2010 to 2019 were −0.27 (95%UI: −0.46, −0.02), −0.07 (95%UI: −0.34, −0.26), −0.06 (95%UI: −0.32, −0.29), respectively. In 2019, the standardized mortality rate attributable to occupational injuries among Chinese men was 5.68/100000 (95%UI: 3.89/100000, 8.23/100000), and the standardized YLL rate was 286.27/100000 (95%UI: 197.58/100000, 411.38/100000); the standardized mortality rate attributable to occupational injuries among Chinese women was 1.55/100000 (95%UI: 0.99/100000, 2.36/100000), and the standardized YLL rate was 80.85/100000 (95%UI: 51.61/100000, 122.07/100000). Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the burden of deaths attributable to occupational injuries in China is declined, but the rate of decline is slowed down in the last decade. The burden of deaths attributable to occupational injuries among women in China still accounts for a high proportion of the global burden among women. The burden of deaths attributable to occupational injuries among Chinese men is higher than that among Chinese women.
10.Trend and prediction of fatality due to occupational injuries in China
Ting XU ; Youhua MO ; Shidi MENG ; Xiaojun ZHU
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2023;40(10):1128-1134
Background Occupational injury is one of the important causes of death among the working population and a worldwide hot topic, but there are few relevant studies on the trend and prediction of occupational injury attributable deaths in China. Objective To analyze the trend of occupational injury attributable deaths in China from 2000 to 2019, predict the deaths of occupational injuries in China from 2020 to 2024 by contructing a gray GM(1,1) model, and provid a reference for surveillance and assessment of occupational injuries. Methods Mortality, crude mortality rates, and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China by year, sex, and age groups were calculated using data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Join-point model was used to analyze possible trend of standardized mortality rate from 2000 to 2019, and calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). After a gray model GM(1,1) was established, the accuracy of the model was evaluated by posterior error ratio (C) and small error probability (P) and rated as Level 1 (good, C≤0.35 and P≥0.95) or Level 2 (qualified, 0.35<C≤0.50 and 0.80≤P<0.95). Then the gray model was further used to predict the number of deaths and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China from 2020 to 2024. Results From 2000 to 2019, the deaths due to occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, the number of deaths decreased from 111557 to 61780, the crude mortality rate decreased from 8.58/100000 to 4.34/100000, the standardized mortality rate decreased from 7.67/100000 to 3.65/100000, and the AAPC of standardized mortality rate was −4.0% (P<0.05); the number of male deaths decreased from 87760 to 49192, and the male standardized mortality rate decreased from 11.78/100000 to 5.68/100000; the number of female deaths decreased from 23797 to 12588, and the female standardized mortality rate decreased from 3.34/100000 to 1.55/100000; the AAPCs of male and female standardized mortality rate were −3.9% and −4.1% respectively. The accuracy of the established gray model for deaths (C=0.09, P=1) was rated as Level 1, and that for standardized mortality rate (C=0.41, P=0.9) was rated as level 2, which allowed for prediction extrapolation. The model showed that from 2020 to 2024, the number of occupational injury attributable deaths would be 76039, 73849, 71721, 69655, and 67649, and the standardized mortality rate would be 4.23/100000, 4.07/100000, 3.92/100000, 3.77/100000, and 3.62/100000, respectively. Conclusion From 2000 to 2019, the standardized mortality rate of occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, and it is predicted that the standardized mortality rate from 2020 to 2024 will still show a downward trend, but the number of deaths will remain high, so it is necessary to continue to strengthen prevention and control of occupational injuries.

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