BACKGROUND: Spicy food consumption has been reported to be inversely associated with mortality from multiple diseases. However, the effect of spicy food intake on the incidence of vascular diseases in the Chinese population remains unclear. This study was conducted to explore this association. METHODS: This study was performed using the large-scale China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) prospective cohort of 486,335 participants. The primary outcomes were vascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD), major coronary events (MCEs), cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and non-stroke cerebrovascular disease. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the association between spicy food consumption and incident vascular diseases. Subgroup analysis was also performed to evaluate the heterogeneity of the association between spicy food consumption and the risk of vascular disease stratified by several basic characteristics. In addition, the joint effects of spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of vascular disease were also evaluated, and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the reliability of the association results. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 12.1 years, a total of 136,125 patients with vascular disease, 46,689 patients with IHD, 10,097 patients with MCEs, 80,114 patients with cerebrovascular disease, 56,726 patients with stroke, and 40,098 patients with non-stroke cerebrovascular disease were identified. Participants who consumed spicy food 1-2 days/week (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = [0.93, 0.97], P <0.001), 3-5 days/week (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = [0.94, 0.99], P = 0.003), and 6-7 days/week (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.002) had a significantly lower risk of vascular disease than those who consumed spicy food less than once a week ( Ptrend <0.001), especially in those who were younger and living in rural areas. Notably, the disease-based subgroup analysis indicated that the inverse associations remained in IHD ( Ptrend = 0.011) and MCEs ( Ptrend = 0.002) risk. Intriguingly, there was an interaction effect between spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of IHD ( Pinteraction = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS Our findings support an inverse association between spicy food consumption and vascular disease in the Chinese population, which may provide additional dietary guidance for the prevention of vascular diseases.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Prospective Studies ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Vascular Diseases/etiology* ; Risk Factors ; China/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology* ; East Asian People

Objective To investigate the hepatic hemodynamic characteristics of cirrhotic patients with splenectomy using iodine map of dual-source computed tomography(DSCT).Methods Twenty-four cirrhotic patients with splenectomy were selected as a study group,41 cirrhotic patients without splenectomy as a cirrhosis group and other 32 patients with normal liver as a control group.The iodine concentration(IC)in hepatic arterial and venous phases was measured on the iodine map,and the arterial iodine fraction(AIF)and portal venous iodine concentration(PVIC)were calculated.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves were plotted and the area under the curve(AUC)was recorded to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of each parameter using the DeLong test.Results IC in arterial phase and AIF were significantly higher,and IC in venous phase and PVIC were significantly lower in study group(P<0.05).The AUC values of the four parameters between study group and cirrhosis group were 0.735,0.992,0.943,and 0.994,respectively.Conclusion DSCT iodine map is helpful for clinical quantitative assessment of hepatic hemodynamic characteristics in cirrhotic patients with splenectomy,and the PVIC has optimal independent diagnostic performance.

Extremely unbalanced data here refers to datasets where the values of independent or dependent variables exhibit severe unbalance in proportions, such as extremely unbalanced case-control ratio, very low incidence rate of disease, heavily censored time-to-event data, and low-frequency or rare variants. In such scenarios, the statistic derived from hypothesis test using the classical statistical method, e.g., logistic regression model and Cox proportional hazard regression model, might deviate from theoretical asymptotic distribution, resulting in inflation or deflation of type I error. With the increased availability and exploration of resources from large-scale population cohorts in genome-wide association study (GWAS), there is a growing demand for effective and accurate statistical approaches to handle extremely unbalanced data in independent and non-independent samples. Our study introduces classical statistical methods in genetic statistics firstly, then, summarizes the failure of classical statistical methods in dealing with extremely unbalanced data through simulation experiments to draw researchers' attention to the extremely unbalanced data in GWAS.

Objective:To investigate the inhibitory effect of RMT1-10-induced tolerogenic dendritic cells (Tol-DCs) in vitro on high-risk corneal allograft rejection in mice and its mechanism. Methods:One hundred SPF male BALB/c mice and fifty SPF male C57BL/6 mice were selected.Bone marrow-derived immature dendritic cells (imDCs) obtained from C57BL/6 mice were divided into imDCs group, mature dentritic cells (mDCs) group, RMT1-10 group, and IgG isotype control group.The imDCs in the four groups were cultured with no intervention, lipopolysaccharide, RMT1-10 and lipopolysaccharide, or IgG isotype antibody and lipopolysaccharide for 7 days according to grouping.The expression levels of different phenotypes of DCs including CD11c, CD80, CD86, major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-Ⅱ, T cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain containing molecule (Tim)-4 and CD103 in the four groups were detected by flow cytometry.The concentrations of interleukin-10 (IL-10) and transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) in the DCs supernatants were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.A mixed lymphocyte culture system was established, and the stimulation index (SI) of CD4 + T cell proliferation stimulated with DCs was detected by cell counting kit 8 method.Corneal neovascularization was induced by corneal stromal suture in BALB/c mice, and the 80 mice with neovascularization in 4 quadrants growing into the middle and peripheral cornea were used as recipients.The recipient mice were randomized into imDCs group, mDCs group, RMT1-10 group, and IgG isotype control group using the random number table method, with 20 mice in each group.An injection of corresponding DCs (1×10 6 cells/100 μl) was administered to the recipient mice via the tail vein according to grouping.At 7 days following the injection, C57BL/6 mice were used as donors and penetrating keratoplasty was performed.Within one month after the operation, signs of corneal grafts rejection, including opacity, edema and neovascularization, were observed by slit lamp biomicroscopy and scored every day.At 21 days after the operation, 5 recipients selected from each group were subcutaneously injected with naive C57BL/6 splenocytes (1×10 6 cells/100 μl) behind the ear.The delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) was evaluated by ear swelling at 24 hours after the subcutaneous injection.The use and care of experimental animals complied with the Regulations on the Management of Experimental Animals promulgated by the State Science and Technology Commission.This study protocol was approved by an Ethics Committee of the Affiliated Hospital of Chengde Medical University (No.CYFYLL2020055). Results:Compared with mDCs group, the expressions of CD80, CD86 and MHC-Ⅱ, and the percentage of Tim-4-positive cells in CD11c-positive cells were significantly decreased in RMT1-10 group, showing statistically significant differences (all at P<0.001). The percentage of Tim-4-positive cells were significantly decreased in RMT1-10 group than imDCs group, and the percentage of CD103-positive cells in RMT1-10 group was significantly higher than imDCs group, mDCs group and IgG isotype control group (all at P<0.001). The concentrations of IL-10 and TGF-β in the cell culture supernatant of RMT1-10 group were significantly higher than those of the other three groups, with statistically significant differences (all at P<0.001). There were statistically significant differences in the SI of CD4 + T cell proliferation simulated by DCs ( Fgroup=1 833.00, P<0.001; Fratio=230.40, P<0.001; Finteraction=3.06, P=0.01). The SI of DCs/CD4 + T cells ratio at 1∶5, 1∶10, 1∶20 and 1∶40 were all significantly lower in imDCs group than mDCs group, and were all significantly lower in RMT1-10 group than imDCs group (all at P<0.05). There was a statistically significant difference in corneal graft survival curve among various groups ( χ2=77.69, P<0.001). The survival rate of RMT1-10 group was significantly higher than that of imDCs group ( χ2=9.74, P=0.002), and the survival rate of imDCs group was significantly higher than that of mDCs group ( χ2=31.02, P<0.001). The ear swelling of recipient mice of positive control group, mDCs group, IgG isotype control group, imDCs group and RMT1-10 group was (503.6±17.2), (475.7±17.6), (456.2±18.8), (225.2±39.4), (118.1±12.6), and (106.4±7.4) μm, with a statistically significant difference among them ( F=377.10, P<0.001). The mice ear swelling was more serious in positive control group than mDCs group, more serious in IgG isotype control group than imDCs group, and more serious in imDCs group than RMT1-10 group (all at P<0.05). Conclusions:RMT1-10 can inhibit the rejection of high-risk corneal transplantation in mice, the mechanism of which may be attributed to inducing imDCs to transform into Tol-DCs in vitro and up-regulating the expression of TGF-β and IL-10, which promotes antigen-specific immune tolerance after adoptive transfer, thereby indirectly prolongs the survival of corneal grafts.

Objective:To explore the consistency of peripheral whole blood and venous serum procalcitonin (PCT) levels, and the value of peripheral whole blood PCT in evaluating pediatric bacterial infection.Methods:This multicenter cross-sectional parallel control study was conducted in 11 children′s hospital. All the 1 898 patients older than 28 days admitted to these hospitals from March 2018 to February 2019 had their peripheral whole blood and venous serum PCT detected simultaneously with unified equipment, reagent and method. According to the venous serum PCT level, the patients were stratified to subgroups. Analysis of variance and chi-square test were used to compare the demographic characteristics among groups. And the correlation between the peripheral blood and venous serum PCT level was investigated by quantitative Pearson correlation analysis.The PCT resultes were also converted into ranked data to further test the consistency between the two sampling methods by Spearman′s rank correlation test. Furthermore, the ranked data were converted into binary data to evaluate the consistency and investigate the best cut-off of peripheral blood PCT level in predicting bacterial infection.Results:A total of 1 898 valid samples were included (1 098 males, 800 females),age 27.4(12.2,56.7) months. There was a good correlation between PCT values of peripheral whole blood and venous serum ( r=0.97 , P<0.01). The linear regression equation was PCT?venous serum=0.135+0.929×PCT peripheral whole blood. However, when stratified to 5 levels, PCT results showed diverse and unsatisfied consistency between the two sampling methods ( r=0.51-0.92, all P<0.01). But after PCT was converted to ordinal categorical variables, the stratified analysis showed that the coincidence rate of the measured values by the two sampling methods in each boundary area was 84.9%-97.1%. The dichotomous variables also showed a good consistency (coincidence rate 96.8%-99.3%, Youden index 0.82-0.89). According to the severity of disease, the serum PCT value was classified into 4 intervals（<0.5、0.5-<2.0、2.0-<10.0、≥10.0 μg/L）, and the peripheral blood PCT value also showed a good predictive value (AUC value was 0.991 2-0.997 9). The optimal cut points of peripheral whole blood PCT value 0.5、1.0、2.0、10.0 μg/L corresponding to venous serum PCT values were 0.395, 0.595, 1.175 and 3.545 μg/L, respectively. Conclusions:There is a good correlation between peripheral whole blood PCT value and the venous serum PCT value, which means that the peripheral whole blood PCT could facilitate the identification of infection and clinical severity. Besides, the sampling of peripheral whole blood is simple and easy to repeat.

During the epidemics of COVID-19 in domestic China and recently continuing rapid spread worldwide, a bunch of studies fitted the epidemics by transmission dynamics model to nowcast and forecast the trend of epidemics of COVID-19. However, due to little known of the new virus in early stage and much uncertainty in the comprehensive strategies of prevention and control for epidemics, majority of models, not surprisingly, predict in less accuracy, although the dynamics model has its great value in better understanding of transmission. This comment discusses the principle assumptions and limitations of the dynamics model in forecasting the epidemic trend, as well as its great potential role in evaluation the efforts of prevention and control strategies.

Objectives: Fitting and forecasting the trend of COVID-19 epidemics. Methods: Based on SEIR dynamic model, considering the COVID-19 transmission mechanism, infection spectrum and prevention and control procedures, we developed SEIR^{+ CAQ} dynamic model to fit the frequencies of laboratory confirmed cases obtained from the government official websites. The data from January 20, 2020 to February 7, 2020 were used to fit the model, while the left data between February 8-12 were used to evaluate the quality of forecasting. Results: According to the cumulative number of confirmed cases between January 29 to February 7, the fitting bias of SEIR^{+ CAQ} model for overall China (except for cases of Hubei province), Hubei province (except for cases of Wuhan city) and Wuhan city was less than 5%. For the data of subsequent 5 days between February 8 to 12, which were not included in the model fitting, the prediction biases were less than 10%. Regardless of the cases diagnosed by clinical examines, the numbers of daily emerging cases of China (Hubei province not included), Hubei Province (Wuhan city not included) and Wuhan city reached the peak in the early February. Under the current strength of prevention and control, the total number of laboratory- confirmed cases in overall China will reach 80 417 till February 29, 2020, respectively. Conclusions The proposed SEIR^{+ CAQ} dynamic model fits and forecasts the trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia well and provides evidence for decision making.

Objective:To assess the risk of COVID-19 foreign imports cases to China.Methods:We collected epidemic data (cumulative daily confirmed cases in each country, cumulative confirmed imported cases), demographic data (population density, population) and information on potential source groups of tourists (the daily estimated number of overseas Chinese, overseas Chinese students, overseas workers, foreign students coming to China and flight passengers) and the global health security index (GHS) to assess and predict risk of imported cases for recent (February 1 st to April 25 th) and future (after April 26 th). Results:Strong positive correlation was found among variables including the number of imported cases, cumulative confirmed cases, attack rate, number of overseas Chinese, number of overseas Chinese students, number of foreign students coming to China, number of flight passengers and GHS. In the recent risk analysis, imported cases of Russian were the highest, followed by United Kingdom, United States, France and Spain. In the future risk prediction, 44 countries including United States and Singapore are evaluated as potential high-risk countries in the future through the attack rate index of each country and the estimated average number of daily passengers.Conclusion:The risk assessment of COVID-19 imported cases can be used to identify high-risk areas in recent and future, and might be helpful to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic and ultimately overcome the epidemic.

Objectives:The COVID-19 epidemic has swept all over the world. Estimates of its case fatality rate were influenced by the existing confirmed cases and the time distribution of onset to death, and the conclusions were still unclear. This study was aimed to estimate the age-specific case fatality rate of COVID-19.Methods:Data on COVID-19 epidemic were collected from the National Health Commission and China CDC. The Gamma distribution was used to fit the time from onset to death. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate age-specific case fatality rate.Results:The median time from onset to death of COVID-19 was M=13.77 ( P25- P75: 9.03-21.02) d. The overall case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 4.1 % (95 %CI: 3.7 %-4.4 %) and the age-specific case fatality rate were 0.1 %, 0.4 %, 0.4 %, 0.4 %,0.8 %, 2.3 %, 6.4 %, 14.0 and 25.8 % for 0-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-, 50-, 60-, 70- and ≥80 years group, respectively. Conclusions:The Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method adjusting censored is suitable for case fatality rate estimation during the epidemic of a new infectious disease. Early identification of the COVID-19 case fatality rate is helpful to the prevention and control of the epidemic.

Objective:To infer the start time of the resurgent COVID-19 epidemic in Xinfadi wholesale market in Beijing in June 2020 and evaluate the effect of comprehensive prevention and control measures in this epidemic.Methods:SEIR dynamics model was used to fit daily onset infections to search the start date of this resurgent COVID-19 epidemic in Beijing. The number of cumulative infections from June 12 to July 1 in Beijing were fitted considering different levels of control strength.Results:The current reemerged COVID-19 epidemic in Beijing probably started between May 22 and May 28 (cumulative probability: 95 %), with the highest probability on May 25 (23 %). The R0 of the current reemerged COVID-19 epidemic was 4.22 (95 %CI: 2.88-7.02). Dynamic model fitting suggested that by June 11, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases would reached 99 (95 %CI: 77-121), which was in line with the actual situation, and without control, by July 1, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases would reach 65 090 (95 %CI: 39 068-105 037). Since June 12, comprehensive prevention and control measures have been implemented in Beijing, as of July 1, compared with uncontrolled situation, the number of infections had been reduced by 99 %, similar to the fitting result of a 95 % reduction of the transmission rate. The sensitivity analysis showed consistent results. Conclusions:For the emergent outbreak of COVID-19, the dynamics model can be used to infer the start time of the transmission and help tracing the source of epidemic. The comprehensive prevention and control measures taken in Beijing have quickly blocked over 95 % of the transmission routes and reduced 99 % of the infections, containing the sudden epidemic timely and effectively, which have value in guiding the prevention and control of the epidemic in the future.