ObjectiveTo investigate the recurrence of ischemic stroke (IS) and to analyze the association between four indices of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) and the risk of IS recurrence by analyzing the follow-up data related to IS in the community-based natural population of Songjiang District, Shanghai, so as to provide a scientific basis for improving the prognosis of stroke patients in the community and controlling IS recurrence. MethodsA prospective follow-up study was conducted among the IS patients in the community-based cohort population, collecting data about patient’s age, gender, disease history, biochemical indicators, and etc. Cox regression model and restricted cubic spline model were used to analyze the relationship between different levels of plasma lipids and the recurrence of IS in these patients. ResultsA total of 1 368 patients with IS were included. The total follow-up duration was 7 171.46 person-years, with a median follow-up time of 6.24 years. There were 420 cases of IS recurrence, resulting in a cumulative recurrence rate of 30.70%. The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the recurrence risk of IS was reduced when the baseline TC and LDL-C levels of IS patients were in the ranges of 4.65‒5.67 mmol·L^-1 and 2.52‒3.46 mmol·L^-1, respectively. The results of restricted cubic spline analysis showed a U-shaped relationship between baseline TC and LDL-C levels and the recurrence risk in IS patients. ConclusionThe cumulative recurrence rate of patients with IS in the community of Songjiang District in Shanghai is high, and the levels of TC and LDL-C at baseline survey are correlated with the recurrence of IS in these patients. It is suggested to pay more attention to the levels of LDL-C and TC in patients with IS, so as to improve the prognosis.

ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.

Objective:To analyze the association between remnant cholesterol (RC) and the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in community population in Shanghai.Methods:Using baseline and follow-up data from the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank, individuals with ASCVD (including coronary heart disease, stroke, myocardial infarction, and peripheral artery disease) at baseline were excluded. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was employed to analyze the relationship between RC and ASCVD risk and the association under different LDL-C levels.Results:A total of 57 281 participants were included, with a median follow-up of 5.61 person-years. During the follow-up, 1 436 ASCVD events (2.51%) were recorded. After adjusting for potential confounders, individuals with moderate ( HR=1.18, 95% CI: 1.03-1.36) or high RC levels ( HR=1.32, 95% CI: 1.15-1.51) had an increased risk of ASCVD. The association was stronger in participants younger than 60 years-old (interaction P=0.048). Participants with RC ≥0.97 mmol/L and LDL-C <3.40 mmol/L demonstrated a 19% ( HR=1.19, 95% CI: 1.06-1.35) increased risk of ASCVD. When RC ≥0.97 mmol/L and LDL-C ≥3.40 mmol/L, ASCVD risk increased by 42% ( HR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.21-1.67). Conclusions:Elevated RC increases ASCVD risk, regardless of LDL-C levels. RC can serve as a valuable predictor and intervention target for ASCVD.

Objective:To analyze the mediating effect of cardiovascular health status (CVH) on the association between educational level and cardiovascular disease (CVD).Methods:The participants were from Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank, and questionnaire survey, physical examination, blood biochemistry were conducted from 2016 to 2020 for baseline information collection, and follow up was conducted until March 31, 2024 based on the medical data, CVD incidence data and death surveillance data at different levels. The associations of educational level, CVH and time to CVD onset of the study population were analyzed using the accelerated failure time model to analyze the mediating effects of CVH, health behaviors, and health factors in the association of educational level and time to CVD onset. The mediating effects of educational level, gender, and age moderated associations were also analyzed.Results:A total of 57 312 participants were included, with 2 780 new cases of CVD during a median follow-up of 6.71 (6.71-6.72) years, and a mean incidence density of 7.77/1 000 person-years (95% CI: 7.48/1 000 person-years -8.06/1 000 person-years). In total, the less educational level and the lower CVH, the higher CVD incidence density ( P<0.05). The results of accelerated failure time models showed that the time ratio for CVD-free survival was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.06-1.24) and 1.33 (95% CI: 1.10-1.60) for moderate and high educational level, respectively. The results of the mediation effect analysis showed that the association between moderate and high educational level and time to CVD onset was 29.60% (20.50%-50.00%) and 36.10% (23.80%-59.00%), 9.97% (5.07%-20.00%) and 13.84% (6.84%-29.00%), 15.24% (9.64%-27.00%) and 17.55% (11.58%-33.00%) of mediators mediated by CVH, health behaviors, health factors, respectively. Among them, there was an exposure-mediated interaction of educational level and a positive moderating effect of age. Conclusion:CVH, health behaviors and health factors had a proportionate mediating effect in the association between educational level and risk of CVD development.

Objective:To analyze the association of sedentary time and physical activity with the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in non-smoking women aged 40 years and above in Songjiang District, Shanghai.Methods:Based on a natural population-based cohort in Songjiang, a total of 18 707 non-smoking women who were aged 40 years and above and without COPD at baseline survey were enrolled in the study. Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the associations of the duration of sedentary behavior, physical activity with the risk for COPD at baseline survey, and the hazard ratio ( HR) of risk for COPD and its 95% CI were calculated. Stratified analyses were performed based on age, BMI, history of respiratory diseases and so on. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by excluding the cases diagnosed with COPD within one year after the baseline survey. Results:As of March 31, 2024, a total of 691 new COPD cases had been recorded after a median follow-up time of 6.96 years with an incidence density of 53.22 per 10 000 person-years. After adjusting for relevant confounders, in the tertile subgroups of sedentary time, the risk for COPD reduced by 17% in the short sedentary time group compared with the long sedentary time group ( HR=0.83,95% CI:0.70-0.99). Compared with the low physical activity level and long sedentary time group, the risk for COPD reduced by 24% in the high physical activity level and short sedentary time group ( HR=0.76, 95% CI: 0.61-0.95) and by 23% in the low physical activity level and short sedentary time group ( HR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.60-0.97). Compared with the non-physical exercise and long sedentary time group, the risk for COPD reduced by 28% in the non-physical exercise and short sedentary time group ( HR=0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.87). These associations remained when the cases diagnosed with COPD within one year of the baseline survey were excluded. Conclusions:Increasing physical activity and reducing sedentary time have beneficial effects to prevent COPD in non-smoking women, and reducing sedentary time alone may also reduce the risk for COPD if increasing physical exercise or other physical activity is not possible.

ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence and influencing factors of postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) among herpes zoster (HZ) patients aged 50 years and above in the community-based population of Shanghai who had not received the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV), so as to provide data support for formulating PHN prevention strategies. MethodsBased on baseline survey data, physical examinations, biochemical indicator tests, annual clinical diagnosis and treatment data from the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort, as well as the RZV vaccination data from the vaccination information platform of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the cumulative incidence rate of PHN was calculated. Logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the influencing factors of PHN. ResultsA total of 48 261 participants were included in this study, with 2 406 newly diagnosed HZ cases, among whom 11 had received at least one dose of RZV. Among 2 395 unvaccinated HZ patients, 262 new PHN cases were identified, with a cumulative incidence rate of 10.94% (95%CI: 9.72%‒12.26%). Factors influencing PHN incidence included age 70‒79 years (OR=2.069, 95%CI: 1.427‒3.028), history of immunosuppresant utilization (OR=1.592, 95%CI: 1.227‒2.072), and history of stroke (OR=1.657, 95%CI: 1.015‒2.605). For male patients, the influencing factors for PHN were age 70‒79 years (OR=2.319, 95%CI: 1.195‒4.802) and history of chronic bronchitis (OR=1.935, 95%CI: 1.010‒3.517), whereas, for female patients, age 70‒79 years (OR=1.767, 95%CI: 1.107‒2.831), history of immunosuppresant use (OR=1.603, 95%CI: 1.151‒2.245), history of stroke (OR=1.906, 95%CI: 1.059‒3.277), and alcohol consumption (OR=3.698, 95%CI: 1.093‒12.517) were influencing factors for PHN. ConclusionIndividuals with advanced age, history of immunosuppresant utilization, stroke, chronic bronchitis, and alcohol consumption are at high risk for PHN. These individuals should be prioritized for RZV vaccination to reduce the occurrence of PHN and improve their quality of life.

Objective:To analyze the association between remnant cholesterol (RC) and the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in community population in Shanghai.Methods:Using baseline and follow-up data from the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank, individuals with ASCVD (including coronary heart disease, stroke, myocardial infarction, and peripheral artery disease) at baseline were excluded. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was employed to analyze the relationship between RC and ASCVD risk and the association under different LDL-C levels.Results:A total of 57 281 participants were included, with a median follow-up of 5.61 person-years. During the follow-up, 1 436 ASCVD events (2.51%) were recorded. After adjusting for potential confounders, individuals with moderate ( HR=1.18, 95% CI: 1.03-1.36) or high RC levels ( HR=1.32, 95% CI: 1.15-1.51) had an increased risk of ASCVD. The association was stronger in participants younger than 60 years-old (interaction P=0.048). Participants with RC ≥0.97 mmol/L and LDL-C <3.40 mmol/L demonstrated a 19% ( HR=1.19, 95% CI: 1.06-1.35) increased risk of ASCVD. When RC ≥0.97 mmol/L and LDL-C ≥3.40 mmol/L, ASCVD risk increased by 42% ( HR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.21-1.67). Conclusions:Elevated RC increases ASCVD risk, regardless of LDL-C levels. RC can serve as a valuable predictor and intervention target for ASCVD.

Objective:To analyze the mediating effect of cardiovascular health status (CVH) on the association between educational level and cardiovascular disease (CVD).Methods:The participants were from Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank, and questionnaire survey, physical examination, blood biochemistry were conducted from 2016 to 2020 for baseline information collection, and follow up was conducted until March 31, 2024 based on the medical data, CVD incidence data and death surveillance data at different levels. The associations of educational level, CVH and time to CVD onset of the study population were analyzed using the accelerated failure time model to analyze the mediating effects of CVH, health behaviors, and health factors in the association of educational level and time to CVD onset. The mediating effects of educational level, gender, and age moderated associations were also analyzed.Results:A total of 57 312 participants were included, with 2 780 new cases of CVD during a median follow-up of 6.71 (6.71-6.72) years, and a mean incidence density of 7.77/1 000 person-years (95% CI: 7.48/1 000 person-years -8.06/1 000 person-years). In total, the less educational level and the lower CVH, the higher CVD incidence density ( P<0.05). The results of accelerated failure time models showed that the time ratio for CVD-free survival was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.06-1.24) and 1.33 (95% CI: 1.10-1.60) for moderate and high educational level, respectively. The results of the mediation effect analysis showed that the association between moderate and high educational level and time to CVD onset was 29.60% (20.50%-50.00%) and 36.10% (23.80%-59.00%), 9.97% (5.07%-20.00%) and 13.84% (6.84%-29.00%), 15.24% (9.64%-27.00%) and 17.55% (11.58%-33.00%) of mediators mediated by CVH, health behaviors, health factors, respectively. Among them, there was an exposure-mediated interaction of educational level and a positive moderating effect of age. Conclusion:CVH, health behaviors and health factors had a proportionate mediating effect in the association between educational level and risk of CVD development.

Objective:To analyze the association of sedentary time and physical activity with the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in non-smoking women aged 40 years and above in Songjiang District, Shanghai.Methods:Based on a natural population-based cohort in Songjiang, a total of 18 707 non-smoking women who were aged 40 years and above and without COPD at baseline survey were enrolled in the study. Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the associations of the duration of sedentary behavior, physical activity with the risk for COPD at baseline survey, and the hazard ratio ( HR) of risk for COPD and its 95% CI were calculated. Stratified analyses were performed based on age, BMI, history of respiratory diseases and so on. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by excluding the cases diagnosed with COPD within one year after the baseline survey. Results:As of March 31, 2024, a total of 691 new COPD cases had been recorded after a median follow-up time of 6.96 years with an incidence density of 53.22 per 10 000 person-years. After adjusting for relevant confounders, in the tertile subgroups of sedentary time, the risk for COPD reduced by 17% in the short sedentary time group compared with the long sedentary time group ( HR=0.83,95% CI:0.70-0.99). Compared with the low physical activity level and long sedentary time group, the risk for COPD reduced by 24% in the high physical activity level and short sedentary time group ( HR=0.76, 95% CI: 0.61-0.95) and by 23% in the low physical activity level and short sedentary time group ( HR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.60-0.97). Compared with the non-physical exercise and long sedentary time group, the risk for COPD reduced by 28% in the non-physical exercise and short sedentary time group ( HR=0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.87). These associations remained when the cases diagnosed with COPD within one year of the baseline survey were excluded. Conclusions:Increasing physical activity and reducing sedentary time have beneficial effects to prevent COPD in non-smoking women, and reducing sedentary time alone may also reduce the risk for COPD if increasing physical exercise or other physical activity is not possible.

ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence， recovery rate and associated factors of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease （NAFLD） among residents aged 65 years old and above in Xinqiao Community of Songjiang， Shanghai， and to provide basic data for further efficient community management. MethodsData of annual geriatric physical examination program for residents aged 65 and above were collected in Xinqiao Community， Songjiang from 2016 to 2022. Those residents who participated twice or more were included in this analysis. Data were collated into longitudinal form. For each participant， data of the first physical examination was used as baseline， and each subsequent examination was taken as follow-up. Incidence and recovery rate of NAFLD were calculated. Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore the associated factors and their changes with the onset and recovery of NAFLD. ResultsDuring the study period， a total of 11 983 residents participated in physical examinations， of which 8 644 participated twice or more， and 8 154 had no history of excessive alcohol consumption. B-ultrasound showed that there were 5 267 residents without NAFLD and 2 887 with NAFLD at baseline. After a median follow-up of 3.3 years， the incidence density of NAFLD in this population was estimated to be 11.5 per 100 person-years， and the recovery density was 23.4 per 100 person-years. The incidence density of NAFLD was negatively associated with age， and positively associated with baseline BMI， abdominal obesity， high fasting blood glucose， and high triglycerides. The recovery density was negatively associated with baseline BMI and abdominal obesity. Compared with those with normal BMI at both baseline and follow-up， those with persistent obesity showed the highest risk of NAFLD （males： HR： 3.19， 95%CI： 2.16-4.70； females： HR： 3.34， 95%CI： 2.46-4.54） and the lowest potential of recovery （males： HR： 0.58， 95%CI： 0.42-0.82； females： HR： 0.58， 95%CI： 0.44-0.77）. Persistently high triglycerides were also associated with a higher risk of developing the disease. ConclusionResidents aged 65 years old and above in Xinqiao， Shanghai had a higher incidence and recovery rate of NAFLD. Women， being obese and having hyperlipidemia are at a higher risk for the development and persistence of NAFLD.