1.Construction of a prediction model for early hormone remission after prolactinoma surgery based on machine learning
Yanxia DENG ; Jiahui LIU ; Jing XU ; Weijie WANG ; Kun SUN ; Lianshu DING ; Jian JIANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine 2026;33(3):406-413
Objective To explore factors associated with early postoperative hormonal remission in patients with prolactinoma and to develop prediction models based on clinical and radiological features. Methods Data from 107 patients with prolactinoma who underwent transsphenoidal surgery at The First People’s Hospital of Huai’an, Nanjing Medical University between January 2020 and December 2024 was collected, included general clinical characteristics, preoperative laboratory indicators, and imaging features. Based on whether early postoperative prolactin (PRL) levels normalized, patients were divided into a remission group (n=76) and a non-remission group (n=31). Univariate logistic regression was used for preliminary evaluation of candidate variables, followed by LASSO regression for feature selection. Multiple machine learning models were constructed, including logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors, naive Bayes, decision tree, neural network, and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT). All models were trained and evaluated using ten-fold cross-validation, with comprehensive assessment of model performance based on the area under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F1 score. Results The maximum diameter of tumors in the non remission group was larger than that in the remission group (P=0.019), and the incidence of tumor stroke and preoperative PRL levels were significantly higher than those in the remission group (P<0.001). Univariate analysis showed that sex, maximum tumor diameter, tumor stroke, and preoperative PRL levels were influencing factors for early postoperative hormone response in patients with prolactinoma (P<0.05). The comparison results of machine learning models show that the neural network model performs the best (AUC=0.921) and has good clinical application value, followed by the GBDT model (AUC=0.893) and the support vector machine model (AUC=0.884). Other models also show certain predictive ability. Conclusions Sex, preoperative PRL levels, maximum tumor diameter, Hounsfield unit value, and tumor stroke are important factors affecting early hormone response after prolactinoma surgery. The machine learning model constructed based on the above variables has good predictive performance, and performs the best and has good clinical application value.
2.The correlation between serum phosphate disorder and the prognosis of sepsis in children
Yan JIANG ; Weikai WANG ; Yanxia WANG ; Xin WANG
Chinese Pediatric Emergency Medicine 2025;32(3):170-175
Objective:To explore the relationship between serum phosphate levels and poor prognosis in children with sepsis.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted to the children with sepsis or septic shock admitted to Gansu Provincial Maternal and Child Health Hospital from 2017 to 2023.Based on the pretreatment serum phosphate values of the children,they were divided into hypophosphatemia group,normal blood phosphate group,and hyperphosphatemia group.The clinical data of characteristics,length of hospital stay and regression of septic children in different serum phosphate groups were recorded,and the prognosis of the children was followed up 3 months after discharge from the hospital.The relationship between serum phosphate levels and prognosis of sepsis in children was explored using univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis.Results:A total of 200 children aged 0-14 years diagnosed with sepsis were included,of whom 100 cases (50.0%) had hypophosphatemia,43 cases (21.5%) had hyperphosphatemia,and 57 cases (28.5%) had normophosphate status (normophosphate group).Compared with the normophosphate and hypophosphate groups,the proportion of critically ill patients in the pediatric critical illness score of the hyperphosphatemia group was significantly increased.The incidence of septic shock increased by 5.5% and 24.1%,respectively( P=0.032).The duration of mechanical ventilation was significantly longer than the other two groups ( P=0.013).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the 3-month post-discharge mortality rate ( RR=6.960,95% CI 1.580-30.667, P=0.010) and total mortality ( RR=6.880,95% CI 2.038-23.233, P=0.002) of septic children in the hyperphosphatemia group were 6.960 and 6.880 times higher than those in the normophosphate group,and the differences were statistically significant. Conclusion:Elevated serum phosphate levels may be an early warning factor for poor prognosis of sepsis in children,and PICU healthcare professionals should pay attention to this indicator and take timely diagnostic and therapeutic measures to improve the prognosis.
3.Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Liaoning Cancer Regi-stration Areas from 2016 to 2020 and Trends from 2006 to 2020
Huijuan MU ; Yanxia LI ; Xiang MA ; Jun NA ; Liya YU ; Jiang TIAN ; Li LIU
China Cancer 2025;34(4):279-289
[Purpose]To analyze cancer incidence and mortality in Liaoning cancer registration areas from 2016 to 2020 and the trends from 2006 to 2020.[Methods]Cancer data in cancer registra-tion areas in Liaoning Province from 2016 to 2020 were collected.The incidence and mortality,age-standardized rate,cumulative rate(0~74 years old),and age-specific rate were calculated.Age-standardized incidence and mortality rate were calculated by the Chinese standard popula-tion(ASIRC,ASMRC)and Segi world standard population(ASIRW,ASMRW).Joinpoint software was applied to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality.[Results]From 2016 to 2020,the crude incidence rate of cancer in Liaoning cancer registration areas was 422.30/105,the ASIRC and ASIRW were 215.67/105 and 209.52/105.The ASIRC was higher in urban areas(225.00/105)than that in rural areas(190.15/105),and higher in male(221.47/105)than that in female(213.03/105).The crude mortality rate was 254.22/105,the ASMRC and ASMRW were 113.26/105 and 112.91/105.The ASMRC in urban areas(113.12/105)was the same as that in rural areas(113.01/105),and higher in male(146.86/105)than that in female(83.46/105).The ASIRW of lung cancer was 46.13/105,and the ASMRW was 32.04/105,both ranking the first of all cancers.From 2006 to 2020,the crude incidence,ASIRC and ASIRW in urban areas showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.921%,t=16.222,P<0.05;AAPC=0.823%,t=2.409,P<0.05;AAPC=0.875%,t=2.933,P<0.05).The crude incidence,ASIRC and ASIRW in urban female were all rising(AAPC=4.151%,t=15.888,P<0.05;AAPC=1.597%,t=4.819,P<0.05;AAPC=1.514%,t=4.752,P<0.05).During the same period,the cancer mortality in urban areas showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.175%,t=14.745,P<0.05),and the ASMRW showed a decreasing trend(AAPC=-0.908%,t=-2.273,P<0.05).The crude mor-tality of both men and women showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.010%,t=6.032,P<0.05;AAPC=2.820%,t=5.921,P<0.05),while the crude mortality and ASMRW for female showed a significant downward trend(AAPC=-1.487%,t=-2.437,P<0.05;AAPC=-2.680%,t=-2.246,P<0.05).From 2016 to 2020,the crude incidence,ASIRC and ASIRW in rural areas showed no significant change;however,the crude incidence in male was increasing(AAPC=2.025%,t=3.853,P<0.05).In the same period,the crude mortality rate in rural areas increased(AAPC=3.577%,t=9.377,P<0.05),while there was no significant change in the ASMRC and ASMRW.The crude mortality of both men and women showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.377%,t=10.615,P<0.05;AAPC=3.978%,t=7.245,P<0.05),while there was no significant change in ASMRC and ASMRW.[Conclusion]The cancer burden in Liaoning from 2016 to 2020 was higher than the average level in China,can-cer prevention and control should be further strengthened in the provice.
4.The correlation between serum phosphate disorder and the prognosis of sepsis in children
Yan JIANG ; Weikai WANG ; Yanxia WANG ; Xin WANG
Chinese Pediatric Emergency Medicine 2025;32(3):170-175
Objective:To explore the relationship between serum phosphate levels and poor prognosis in children with sepsis.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted to the children with sepsis or septic shock admitted to Gansu Provincial Maternal and Child Health Hospital from 2017 to 2023.Based on the pretreatment serum phosphate values of the children,they were divided into hypophosphatemia group,normal blood phosphate group,and hyperphosphatemia group.The clinical data of characteristics,length of hospital stay and regression of septic children in different serum phosphate groups were recorded,and the prognosis of the children was followed up 3 months after discharge from the hospital.The relationship between serum phosphate levels and prognosis of sepsis in children was explored using univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis.Results:A total of 200 children aged 0-14 years diagnosed with sepsis were included,of whom 100 cases (50.0%) had hypophosphatemia,43 cases (21.5%) had hyperphosphatemia,and 57 cases (28.5%) had normophosphate status (normophosphate group).Compared with the normophosphate and hypophosphate groups,the proportion of critically ill patients in the pediatric critical illness score of the hyperphosphatemia group was significantly increased.The incidence of septic shock increased by 5.5% and 24.1%,respectively( P=0.032).The duration of mechanical ventilation was significantly longer than the other two groups ( P=0.013).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the 3-month post-discharge mortality rate ( RR=6.960,95% CI 1.580-30.667, P=0.010) and total mortality ( RR=6.880,95% CI 2.038-23.233, P=0.002) of septic children in the hyperphosphatemia group were 6.960 and 6.880 times higher than those in the normophosphate group,and the differences were statistically significant. Conclusion:Elevated serum phosphate levels may be an early warning factor for poor prognosis of sepsis in children,and PICU healthcare professionals should pay attention to this indicator and take timely diagnostic and therapeutic measures to improve the prognosis.
5.CRTC2 attenuates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy by inhibiting cardiomyocyte ferroptosis
Zhaoyue WANG ; Hongyu ZHENG ; Yanxia WANG ; Yuanqin ZHAO ; Wei DENG ; Kun ZHOU ; Qian XU ; Huiting LIU ; Shao OUYANG ; Miao JIANG ; Zhongzhou YANG ; Zhisheng JIANG
Chinese Journal of Arteriosclerosis 2025;33(10):849-858
Aim To investigate the role and regulatory mechanism of CREB regulated transcription coactivator 2(CRTC2)in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Methods A pathological cardiomyocyte hypertrophy model was established in C57BL/6 mice by intraperitoneal injection of isoproterenol(ISO),the expression of CRTC2 in cardiac tissue was detec-ted by Western blot.The CRTC2 knockout mice model was constructed,the cardiac function of mice was detected by small animal echocardiography,the collagen fiber content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by Masson staining,the car-diomyocyte hypertrophy related proteins:skeletal muscle α1-actin(ACTA1)and brain natriuretic peptide(BNP),as well as ferroptosis related proteins:acyl-CoA synthetase long chain family member 4(ACSL4),solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11)and glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4)in mice cardiac tissue were detected by Western blot,the iron ion content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by iron ion kit,to evaluate the correlation between CRTC2 and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis.H9c2 cells were induced by ISO to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the protein expressions of CRTC2,ACTA1,BNP,ACSL4,SLC7A11 and GPX4 were detected after intervention with fer-roptosis inhibitor ferrostatin-1(Fer-1).H9c2 cells with CRTC2 overexpression induced by ISO were used to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the related indicators of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis were detec-ted to explore the mechanism of CRTC2 in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Results Compared with the control group,the expression of CRTC2 protein in the cardiac tissue of ISO induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy mice was increased(P<0.05).Compared with wild-type mice,CRTC2-/-mice showed worsened cardiac function,manifested as increased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDD),left ventricular end-systolic diameter(LVESD),left ventricular posterior wall thickness(LVPWT),heart weight/tibia length(HW/TL)and heart weight/body weight(HW/BW),decreased short axis shortening(FS)and ejection fraction(EF),increased collagen fiber content in cardiac tissue,upregulated ex-pression of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy-related proteins ACTA1 and BNP,increased mRNA and protein expression of ferrop-tosis-related protein ACSL4,decreased mRNA and protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4,and elevated iron ion content in cardiac tissue(P<0.05 or P<0.01).In vitro experiments showed that compared with ISO group,the ISO+Fer-1 group had no significant change in CRTC2 protein expression(P>0.05),the expression of ACTA1 and BNP protein decreased,the surface area of cardiomyocyte reduced,the expression of ACSL4 protein decreased,and the expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 proteins increased(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Compared with the ISO group,the LV-CRTC2+ISO group showed a decrease in surface area of cardiomyocytes(P<0.01),a decrease in ACTA1,BNP and ACSL4 protein ex-pression,an increase in SLC7A11 and GPX4 protein expression,and a decrease in ROS and iron ion content(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Conclusion CRTC2 alleviates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and protect cardiac function by suppressing fer-roptosis in cardiomyocytes.
6.CRTC2 attenuates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy by inhibiting cardiomyocyte ferroptosis
Zhaoyue WANG ; Hongyu ZHENG ; Yanxia WANG ; Yuanqin ZHAO ; Wei DENG ; Kun ZHOU ; Qian XU ; Huiting LIU ; Shao OUYANG ; Miao JIANG ; Zhongzhou YANG ; Zhisheng JIANG
Chinese Journal of Arteriosclerosis 2025;33(10):849-858
Aim To investigate the role and regulatory mechanism of CREB regulated transcription coactivator 2(CRTC2)in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Methods A pathological cardiomyocyte hypertrophy model was established in C57BL/6 mice by intraperitoneal injection of isoproterenol(ISO),the expression of CRTC2 in cardiac tissue was detec-ted by Western blot.The CRTC2 knockout mice model was constructed,the cardiac function of mice was detected by small animal echocardiography,the collagen fiber content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by Masson staining,the car-diomyocyte hypertrophy related proteins:skeletal muscle α1-actin(ACTA1)and brain natriuretic peptide(BNP),as well as ferroptosis related proteins:acyl-CoA synthetase long chain family member 4(ACSL4),solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11)and glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4)in mice cardiac tissue were detected by Western blot,the iron ion content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by iron ion kit,to evaluate the correlation between CRTC2 and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis.H9c2 cells were induced by ISO to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the protein expressions of CRTC2,ACTA1,BNP,ACSL4,SLC7A11 and GPX4 were detected after intervention with fer-roptosis inhibitor ferrostatin-1(Fer-1).H9c2 cells with CRTC2 overexpression induced by ISO were used to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the related indicators of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis were detec-ted to explore the mechanism of CRTC2 in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Results Compared with the control group,the expression of CRTC2 protein in the cardiac tissue of ISO induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy mice was increased(P<0.05).Compared with wild-type mice,CRTC2-/-mice showed worsened cardiac function,manifested as increased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDD),left ventricular end-systolic diameter(LVESD),left ventricular posterior wall thickness(LVPWT),heart weight/tibia length(HW/TL)and heart weight/body weight(HW/BW),decreased short axis shortening(FS)and ejection fraction(EF),increased collagen fiber content in cardiac tissue,upregulated ex-pression of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy-related proteins ACTA1 and BNP,increased mRNA and protein expression of ferrop-tosis-related protein ACSL4,decreased mRNA and protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4,and elevated iron ion content in cardiac tissue(P<0.05 or P<0.01).In vitro experiments showed that compared with ISO group,the ISO+Fer-1 group had no significant change in CRTC2 protein expression(P>0.05),the expression of ACTA1 and BNP protein decreased,the surface area of cardiomyocyte reduced,the expression of ACSL4 protein decreased,and the expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 proteins increased(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Compared with the ISO group,the LV-CRTC2+ISO group showed a decrease in surface area of cardiomyocytes(P<0.01),a decrease in ACTA1,BNP and ACSL4 protein ex-pression,an increase in SLC7A11 and GPX4 protein expression,and a decrease in ROS and iron ion content(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Conclusion CRTC2 alleviates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and protect cardiac function by suppressing fer-roptosis in cardiomyocytes.
7.Renal solitary fibrous tumors: a clinicopathological analysis of five cases
Yan WANG ; Zhengyi SHAN ; Zhihan GUO ; Daochen ZHONG ; Wenjuan YU ; Yanxia JIANG ; Wei ZHANG ; Yujun LI
Chinese Journal of Pathology 2025;54(12):1276-1281
Objective:To investigate the clinicopathological features, diagnosis, and prognosis of renal solitary fibrous tumor (SFT).Methods:Five cases of renal SFT with unequivocal diagnoses at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between January 2011 and July 2025 were subject to analyses of their clinical, morphological, immunophenotypic, and molecular characteristics, accompanied by a literature review.Results:Two males and three females aged between 45 and 62 years were included, all of whom presented with the discovery of a renal mass during routine physical examinations. Gross examination showed that the five tumors were all confined in the kidney. The tumors were nodular with maximum diameters ranging from 2.5 cm to 11.0 cm (mean, 5.8 cm). Upon cross-sectioning, they exhibited gray-white or gray-yellow cut surface. Histologically, the tumor cells exhibited oval or short spindle shapes in four cases, presenting with varying densities and arranged in short bundles, woven patterns, and irregular formation. Various amounts of coarse collagen and scattered staghorn blood-vessels were found in the stroma. In one case (case 5), the tumor cells were long spindle-shaped, densely organized in bundles, and interwoven, exhibiting inconspicuous boundaries, moderate nuclear atypia, and at least 4 mitotic figures per 10 high-power fields. Irregular patchy collagen deposition was particularly prominent at the edges of the tumor tissue. In two cases (cases 3 and 5), scattered and various amounts of renal tubules were observed in the tumor. Two cases (cases 4 and 5) demonstrated focal invasion of the renal parenchyma, although no necrosis was noted. Immunohistochemical staining showed that the tumor cells were diffusely and strongly positive for vimentin and STAT6 in all 5 cases, and positive for CD34. Bcl-2 positivity was present in 4 of the 5 cases. All cases were negative for CKpan, EMA, PAX8, HMB45, Melan A, SMA, and S-100 protein. The p53 status was wild type, and the Ki-67 index ranged from 1% to 8%. Next-generation sequencing was conducted on one case (case 4), revealing the NAB2 (exon 3)::STAT6 (exon 18) gene fusion. The 5 patients were followed up for 1 to 158 months (mean, 56 months), and all were alive with no recurrence or metastasis.Conclusions:SFT of the kidney are rare and morphologically similar to extrarenal SFT. Key morphological features include short spindle-shaped tumor cells arranged in bundles, interwoven patterns or irregularly, accompanied by staghorn blood-vessels and scattered coarse hyaline collagen fibers. SFT with epithelial inclusions may represent a relatively common histological subtype in the kidney. Immunohistochemical staining that demonstrates diffuse and strong positivity for STAT6 and CD34 is instrumental in diagnosing this tumor. The pathogenesis is linked to the centromeric inversion of chromosome 12q, resulting in the fusion of the NAB2 and STAT6 genes. Most of these tumors exhibit favorable prognosis.
8.Cryopreservation of small-volume red blood cells: evaluation of blood group antigen reactivity and its application value
Yaling ZHAO ; Yanxia WANG ; Ziye WANG ; Siyu MA ; Wei SHAO ; Yuanyuan ZHANG ; Xin JIANG ; Jia GAN
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(3):352-357
[Objective] To establish a cryopreservation protocol for small-volume (≤1 mL) red blood cells (RBCs) and to evaluate the reactivity and stability of blood group antigens after cryopreservation, so as to explore its potential application in immunohematology reference laboratories. [Methods] Small-volume RBCs were cryopreserved for 120 days, followed by thawing and deglycerolization to restore the RBC components. The quality of the RBCs was assessed. Serum antibodies were serially diluted and reacted with RBCs before and after cryopreservation, and agglutination scores were recorded to quantitatively evaluate the reactivity and stability of blood group antigens such as Rh, Duffy, Lewis, Kidd, M, and H. Flow cytometry was used to analyze the percentage and mean fluorescence intensity of ABO antigen expression on RBCs before and after cryopreservation to assess the usability of cryopreserved RBCs in flow immunophenotyping and blood group subtype studies. [Results] The hemolysis rate of thawed and deglycerolized RBCs was (0.27±0.10)%, with a supernatant free hemoglobin level of (0.52±0.14) g/L, and the RBC recovery rate was (69.12±7.91)%. The direct antiglobulin test (DAT) was negative for all thawed RBCs. There was no difference in the reactivity of blood group antigens before and after cryopreservation, and no difference in the percentage and mean fluorescence intensity of A and B antigen expression on RBCs before and after cryopreservation. [Conclusion] The small-volume RBC cryopreservation protocol can be applied to immunohematology analysis in reference laboratories and is expected to be widely used in blood group identification, antibody screening, identification, and blood group-related research.
9.Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Liaoning Cancer Regi-stration Areas from 2016 to 2020 and Trends from 2006 to 2020
Huijuan MU ; Yanxia LI ; Xiang MA ; Jun NA ; Liya YU ; Jiang TIAN ; Li LIU
China Cancer 2025;34(4):279-289
[Purpose]To analyze cancer incidence and mortality in Liaoning cancer registration areas from 2016 to 2020 and the trends from 2006 to 2020.[Methods]Cancer data in cancer registra-tion areas in Liaoning Province from 2016 to 2020 were collected.The incidence and mortality,age-standardized rate,cumulative rate(0~74 years old),and age-specific rate were calculated.Age-standardized incidence and mortality rate were calculated by the Chinese standard popula-tion(ASIRC,ASMRC)and Segi world standard population(ASIRW,ASMRW).Joinpoint software was applied to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality.[Results]From 2016 to 2020,the crude incidence rate of cancer in Liaoning cancer registration areas was 422.30/105,the ASIRC and ASIRW were 215.67/105 and 209.52/105.The ASIRC was higher in urban areas(225.00/105)than that in rural areas(190.15/105),and higher in male(221.47/105)than that in female(213.03/105).The crude mortality rate was 254.22/105,the ASMRC and ASMRW were 113.26/105 and 112.91/105.The ASMRC in urban areas(113.12/105)was the same as that in rural areas(113.01/105),and higher in male(146.86/105)than that in female(83.46/105).The ASIRW of lung cancer was 46.13/105,and the ASMRW was 32.04/105,both ranking the first of all cancers.From 2006 to 2020,the crude incidence,ASIRC and ASIRW in urban areas showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.921%,t=16.222,P<0.05;AAPC=0.823%,t=2.409,P<0.05;AAPC=0.875%,t=2.933,P<0.05).The crude incidence,ASIRC and ASIRW in urban female were all rising(AAPC=4.151%,t=15.888,P<0.05;AAPC=1.597%,t=4.819,P<0.05;AAPC=1.514%,t=4.752,P<0.05).During the same period,the cancer mortality in urban areas showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.175%,t=14.745,P<0.05),and the ASMRW showed a decreasing trend(AAPC=-0.908%,t=-2.273,P<0.05).The crude mor-tality of both men and women showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.010%,t=6.032,P<0.05;AAPC=2.820%,t=5.921,P<0.05),while the crude mortality and ASMRW for female showed a significant downward trend(AAPC=-1.487%,t=-2.437,P<0.05;AAPC=-2.680%,t=-2.246,P<0.05).From 2016 to 2020,the crude incidence,ASIRC and ASIRW in rural areas showed no significant change;however,the crude incidence in male was increasing(AAPC=2.025%,t=3.853,P<0.05).In the same period,the crude mortality rate in rural areas increased(AAPC=3.577%,t=9.377,P<0.05),while there was no significant change in the ASMRC and ASMRW.The crude mortality of both men and women showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.377%,t=10.615,P<0.05;AAPC=3.978%,t=7.245,P<0.05),while there was no significant change in ASMRC and ASMRW.[Conclusion]The cancer burden in Liaoning from 2016 to 2020 was higher than the average level in China,can-cer prevention and control should be further strengthened in the provice.
10.Construction and validation of prediction models for delayed encephalopathy after acute carbon monoxide poisoning based on machine learning
Yanwu YU ; Yan ZHANG ; Ding YUAN ; Huihui HAO ; Fang YANG ; Hongyi YAN ; Pin JIANG ; Mengnan GUO ; Zhigao XU ; Changhua SUN ; Gaiqin YAN ; Lu CHE ; Jianjun GUO ; Jihong CHEN ; Yan LI ; Yanxia GAO
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(10):1403-1409
Objective:s To investigate the risk factors for delayed encephalopathy after acute carbon monoxide poisoning (DEACMP) in patients with acute carbon monoxide poisoning (ACOP) and to develop predictive models based on machine learning algorithms.Methods:Patients with ACOP hospitalized at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from August 2019 to October 2024 were included, with the occurrence of DEACMP as the outcome measure. The dataset was randomly divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Lasso regression was used to select features influencing the outcome in training sets. Nine machine learning models—including Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Support Vector Machine (SVM)—were constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted and the area under the curve (AUC) calculated for each model. Calibration curves were used to assess accuracy, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to evaluate clinical utility. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was employed to visualize and interpret the best-performing model.Results:A total of 264 ACOP patients were included, of whom 54 (20.5%) developed DEACMP. Lasso regression identified eight key feature variables. Based on these factors, predictive models were constructed, showing good AUC stability across the nine machine learning models in both training (0.92–0.99) and validation sets (0.85–0.91). The RF model performed best, with an AUC of 0.99 in the training set and 0.90 in the validation set; its calibration curve and DCA curve also demonstrated excellent performance. SHAP analysis of the RF model revealed the importance ranking of factors from highest to lowest as follows: Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, duration of coma, age, history of coronary heart disease, CK-MB level, monocyte count, diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and drinking history.Conclusions:The RF model exhibited the highest predictive performance for DEACMP occurrence in ACOP patients. The influencing factors, ranked in order of importance from highest to lowest, are as follows: GCS score, duration of coma, age, history of coronary heart disease, CK-MB level, monocyte count, DBP, and drinking history.

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