1.Association between the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and meteorological factors in Shenzhen City from 2012 to 2019
Liangqiang LIN ; Dongfeng KONG ; Lanbin XIANG ; Zhigao CHEN ; Yanmin QIN ; Yuefa ZHUANG ; Yang LIU ; Jianfeng LI
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(2):194-199
Objective To examine the association between epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and meteorological factors in Shenzhen City during the period from 2012 to 2019. Methods Average atmospheric pressure, average air temperature, average relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and sunshine duration were captured from Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen City each month from 2012 to 2019. The average monthly rodent densities in Shenzhen City from 2012 to 2019 were acquired from the Vector Surveillance Management System of Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the monthly HFRS incidence was retrieved from Shenzhen Municipal Disease Surveillance System from 2012 to 2019. The correlation between meteorological factors and the monthly incidence of HFRS was examined us ing Spearman’s rank correlation in Shenzhen City, and the temporal trends in monthly HFRS incidence and the degrees of freedom for the rodent density were determined in Shenzhen City with a generalized additive model. The optimal lag time was identified using excess risk (ER) and its 95% confidence interval (CI), and univariate and multivariate models were fitted to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in Shenzhen City. Results The median number of incident HFRS cases was 3.00 (interquartile range, 3.25) in Shenzhen City from 2012 to 2019, with an average air temperature of (23.44 ± 4.91) °C, average relative humidity of (76.05 ± 7.61)%, median precipitation of 4.10 (interquartile range, 6.83) mm, average wind speed of (1.97 ± 0.26) m/s, average sunshine duration of (5.17 ± 1.64) h, and median monthly rodent density of 1.74% (interquartile range, 2.52%). Spearman’s rank correlation analysis showed that the average air temperature positively correlated with average relative humidity (rs = 0.420, P < 0.05), precipitation (rs = 0.658, P < 0.05) and sunshine duration (rs = 0.633, P < 0.05), and the atmospheric pressure negatively correlated with average air temperature (rs = −0.925, P < 0.05), relative humidity (rs = −0.614, P < 0.05), precipitation (rs = −0.789, P < 0.05) and sunshine duration (rs = −0.437, P < 0.05), while the average relative humidity correlated positively with precipitation (rs = 0.724, P < 0.05) and negatively with sunshine duration (rs = −0.218, P < 0.05). Univariate modeling analysis showed that the ERs and their 95% CI were 0.639% (0.540%, 0.737%) for average atmospheric pressure, −7.157% (−8.113%, −6.190%) for average air temperature, −3.603% (−4.219%, −2.985%) for average relative humidity, −5.889% (−7.085%, −4.669%) forprecipitation,21.881% (−5.149%, 56.612%) for average wind speed, and −13.877% (−16.641%, −11.022%) for sunshine duation (all P values < 0.05). Multivariate modeling analysis showed that in the ensemble model combining average atmospheric pressure and precipitation, the highest ER (6.686%) was caused by increased average atmospheric pressure, and the highest absolute ER values for average air temperature (6.615%), average relative humidity (3.107%) and precipitation (5.386%) were seen after adjustment only for sunshine duration (all P values < 0.05), while the highest absolute ER for sunshine duration (11.875%) was found after adjustment for precipitation (P < 0.05). Conclusions An increase in average air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and sunshine duration resulted in a reduced incidence rate of HFRS in Shenzhen City from 2012 to 2019, and an increase in average atmospheric pressure increased the incidence of HFRS. Meteorological factors are important determinants affecting HFRS incidence in Shenzhen City.
2.Efficacy and Safety of His-purkinje Conduction System Pacing Combined With Atrioventricular Node Ablation for the Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation Combined With Heart Failure:a Meta-analysis
Jiayue HAO ; Yanmin WU ; Huiping LI ; Pan ZHANG ; Lanfang ZHANG ; Zhanqi WANG
Chinese Circulation Journal 2025;40(9):912-918
Objectives:To systemically evaluate the efficacy and safety of His-Purkinje conduction system pacing(HPCSP,including His bundle pacing[HBP]and left bundle branch area pacing[LBBAP])combined with atrioventricular node ablation for the treatment of atrial fibrillation combined with heart failure.Methods:The PubMed,Cochrane Library,Web of Science,Embase,China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI),Wanfang Data,VIP,and Yiigle were searched for studies on HPCSP combined with atrioventricular node ablation for the treatment of atrial fibrillation combined with heart failure since the established until July 31,2024.Meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.4 and Stata 15.1.Results:A total of 13 studies were included with 1 071 patients,the success rate of HPCSP combined with atrioventricular node ablation was 93.1%.The meta-analysis results revealed that,in terms of effectiveness outcomes,compared with baseline,left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(mean difference[MD]=-3.11,95%CI:-4.16 to-2.06,P<0.000 01)was significantly reduced,New York Heart Association(NYHA)cardiac function classification(MD=-1.36,95%CI:-1.48 to-1.24,P<0.000 01)was significantly decreased,and left ventricular ejection fraction(MD=9.86,95%CI:7.02 to 12.69,P<0.000 01)was significantly increased during follow-up.The pacing QRS duration was prolonged from baseline after atrioventricular node ablation(MD=7.83,95%CI:2.79 to 12.87,P=0.002);In terms of safety outcomes,HPCSP pacing thresholds remained stable(MD=0.07,95%CI:-0.01 to 0.15,P=0.11)and impedance was decreased(MD=-78.84,95%CI:-120.21 to-37.47,P=0.000 2)during operation and follow-up.The complication rate was 7.9%,the heart failure rehospitalization rate was 4.5%and the mortality rate was 5.8%.Compared with biventricular pacing(BVP),HPCSP was correlated with shorter pacing QRS duration(MD=-39.08,95%CI:-62.35 to-15.80,P=0.001)and higher left ventricular ejection fraction(MD=4.38,95%CI:0.37 to 8.40,P=0.03),there was no significant difference in left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(MD=-9.11,95%CI:-19.93 to 1.72,P=0.100).During follow-up,LBBAP exhibited a lower pacing threshold than HBP(MD=0.61,95%CI:0.23 to 1.00,P=0.002);Endpoint event rates were similar between HBP and LBBP(RR=1.47,95%CI:0.83 to 2.60,P=0.190).Conclusions:Results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that HPCSP combined with atrioventricular node ablation for the treatment of atrial fibrillation combined with heart failure is effective and safe.HPCSP is associated with better ventricular electro-mechanical synchronization and cardiac function compared with BVP,and LBBAP pacing parameters are superior to HBP.
3.Analysis of factors influencing hyperdynamic circulation indicators in patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites
Yanmin ZHENG ; Qingqing WANG ; Shenghao LI ; Ye LI ; Lu ZHANG
The Journal of Practical Medicine 2025;41(20):3228-3234
Objective To investigate the factors influencing hyperdynamic circulation-related indicators in patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 377 patients diagnosed with cirrhosis-associated ascites at the Third People's Hospital of Kunming between October 2022 and October 2024.Patients were categorized into grade 1,grade 2,and grade 3 ascites groups according to ascites severity grading.The general demographic characteristics and clinical parameters of the three groups were compared.Potential positive predictors were initially identified through univariate analyses,including Spearman correlation and non-parametric tests.Binary logistic regression and multiple linear regression models were subsequently employed to investigate the factors influencing high dynamic circulation-related indicators(heart rate[HR],E/A ratio,and left ventricular diastolic function[LVDF])in patients with cirrhosis-related ascites.Results Significant differences in the incidence of HR,the ratio of early to late diastolic filling velocities(E/A),and LVDF were observed among different ascites groups(P<0.05).Age,ascites depth,serum chloride(Cl-),CO2,red cell distribution width coefficient of variation(RDW-CV),and etiology were identified as independent determinants of HR in patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites.Age,white blood cell count(WBC),albumin(ALB),and etiology were independent determinants of E/A in patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites.Age(OR=1.088,95%CI 1.062-1.114,P<0.001)and serum potassium(K+)(OR=1.919,95%CI 1.218-3.025,P=0.005)were independent risk factors for LVDF in patients with cirrhotic ascites,whereas RDW-CV(OR=0.902,95%CI 0.883-0.961,P=0.023)and ALB(OR=0.921,95%CI 0.883-0.961,P<0.001)were identified as protective factors.Conclusions Serum ALB is an independent influencing factor for E/A ratio and LVDF in cirrhotic patients with ascites and hyperdynamic circulation.K+and RDW-CV are also independent predictors of LVDF,whereas Cl-independently influences heart rate.Clinical monitoring and targeted intervention for these parameters should be emphasized.
4.Predictive value of proximal angle of atherosclerosis carotid plaque and distribution of neovascularization in evaluating the recurrence of cerebral infarction
Ziyue HU ; Ruyu ZHENG ; Dan LIU ; Shan TANG ; Yanmin KAN ; Xiang JING ; Qian LI
Tianjin Medical Journal 2025;53(4):439-443
Objective To explore the correlation between the proximal angle of carotid atherosclerotic plaques and neovascularization scores,and their clinical application value in predicting recurrent cerebral infarction.Methods A total of 88 patients who underwent carotid plaque ultrasound examination in our hospital were selected.According to CT/MRI results,patients were divided into the non-cerebral infarction group(45 cases)and the cerebral infarction group(43 cases).Conventional ultrasound examination was performed followed by contrast-enhanced ultrasound.Plaque length,thickness and proximal angle were measured,and the neovascularization score of the proximal end was evaluated using contrast-enhanced ultrasound,and the results were compared and analyzed.Results In the cerebral infarction group,plaque thickness,proximal angle,and neovascularization score were significantly higher than those in the non-cerebral infarction group(P<0.05),while there was no significant difference in plaque length.The proportion of plaques with a proximal neovascularization score of 2 or 3 was higher in the cerebral infarction group than those of the non-cerebral infarction group(79.1%vs.24.4%,P<0.01).A positive correlation was found between the proximal angle and neovascularization score in all patients(rs=0.374,P<0.01).There was no significant difference between the area under the ROC curve for neovascularization score in predicting recurrent cerebral infarction and the proximal angle(P>0.05).The optimal cutoff value of the proximal angle was 18.8,and the sensitivity and the specificity for predicting recurrent cerebral infarction were 93.0%and 62.2%.In the cerebral infarction group,seven patients(16.3%)had recurrent infarction within one year,and these patients had higher proximal neovascularization scores,with angles greater than 18.8°.Conclusion There is a strong correlation between proximal angle of carotid plaques and neovascularization score,which has a positive predictive role in the recurrence of cerebral infarction,providing a reliable auxiliary diagnostic basis for clinical practice.
5.A multicentre retrospective study of house dust mite allergen preparation treating multi-sensitized allergic rhinitis patients
Zhouxian PAN ; Shengyang YAO ; Yongshi YANG ; Lisha LI ; Ruonan CHAI ; Wenchao GUAN ; Xiaoshang LOU ; Chuanhe LIU ; Li SHA ; Yanmin BAO ; Shijie ZHUANG ; Yin WANG ; Kai GUAN ; Rongfei ZHU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(6):834-843
Objective:To investigate, for multi-sensitized allergic rhinitis (AR) patients allergic to dust mites combined with other allergens (pollen, mold, animal dander, etc.), whether the single dust mite subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) can improve the specific symptoms caused by other allergens in the patients, and to analyze the relationship between the effectiveness of symptom improvement in these patients and the type, quantity and severity of the allergens.Methods:A multicenter retrospective study was conducted to collect mul-sensitized AR patients from allergy or respiratory departments of 5 hospitals who received house dust mite allergen preparation SCIT for 12 to 36 months and met other inclusion and exclusion criteria from February to July 2024. General clinical data were collected and the perennial or seasonal symptoms before and after treatment were evaluated with visual analogue scale (VAS) to assess whether there was an perennial or allergen-specific symptom improvement (VAS score decrease ≥30%), by which the patients were divided into effective group and ineffective. R software was used to analyze the differences between groups by using Fisher′s exact test and Mann-Whitney U test. Results:A total of 62 patients were enrolled, and the treatment were effective in 39 of them, with an effective rate of 62.9%. For allergen-specific symptoms, the median age of the effective group was higher than that of the ineffective group (12 years old vs. 8 years old, P=0.039), and the effective rate in dust mite specific immunoglobin E (sIgE) grade ≤5 group was higher than that in sIgE grade >5 group (81.6% vs. 45.5%, P=0.008), and the effective rate of mold sIgE grade ≤2 group was higher than that of sIgE grade >2 group (83.3% vs. 28.6%, P=0.045), and there was no statistically significant correlation between the other allergen grades and the effective rate ( P>0.05). For perennial symptoms, the effective rate in the mold grade ≤2 group was higher than that in the sIgE grade >2 group (91.3% vs. 28.6%, P=0.010), and there was no statistically significant correlation between the other allergen grades and the effective rate ( P>0.05). There was no significant correlation between the treatment effectiveness of perennial or allergen-specific symptoms and the number of combined allergens, the grade of skin test, and the difference between the grade of combined allergens and that of dust mites ( P>0.05). Conclusion:Among the patients with multi-sensitized AR allergic to dust mites included in this study, single dust mite SCIT is effective in some of them, and for allergen-specific symptoms, the effective group was elder, and dust mite sIgE grade 6 and mold sIgE grade ≥2 was related to the low effective rate of SCIT. The present results are insufficient for selecting single or multiple AIT in any type of multi-sensitized patients.
6.Analysis of preterm birth trends among advanced maternal-age women in Haidian District, Beijing from 2013 to 2022
Xiaoxuan ZOU ; Jiaxin LI ; Yinzhu ZHAO ; Yanmin YIN ; Ying YANG
Chinese Journal of Perinatal Medicine 2025;28(3):226-232
Objective:To analyze the trends of preterm birth among women of advanced maternal age in Haidian District, Beijing from 2013 to 2022.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the birth registration data in Haidian District, Beijing, from January 2013 to December 2022, focusing on the records of women aged ≥35 who delivered between 22 and 44 weeks of gestation. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the time trends of preterm birth rates among women of advanced maternal age in the Haidian District. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was applied to quantitatively evaluate the transient and long-term effects of China's universal two-child policy on the preterm birth rate among women of advanced maternal age.Results:(1) A total of 70 640 birth registration records from 68 587 women were finally included. The number of women giving birth peaked between 2016 and 2018 (8 158, 9 906, and 8 914 cases, respectively). The proportion of permanent residents in Beijing gradually decreased from 53.7% (2 175/4 049) in 2013 to 42.0% (4 160/9 906) in 2017 and then increased to over 98% between 2019 and 2022 [98.8% (7 828/7 925), 99.1% (6 283/6 340), 99.3% (5 970/6 014), and 99.5% (6 371/6 404), respectively]. (2) Among the 68 587 women, 57 339 (83.6%) were delivered at tertiary hospitals, and 35 496 (51.8%) were delivered by cesarean section. The proportion of multiple births increased slowly from 2.4% (236/9 906) in 2017 to 3.5% (225/6 404) in 2022. From 2013 to 2015, primiparous women accounted for the majority. Subsequently, the proportion of multiparous women increased annually, reaching 71.6% (6 385/8 914) in 2018 before gradually decreasing to 56.2% (3 600/6 404) in 2022. (3) A total of 70 640 live births were delivered. The highest number of deliveries was in 2017, with 10 139 cases. From 2013 to 2022, 36 995 male infants and 33 645 female infants were born, with preterm birth rates of 10.6% (3 914/36 995) and 9.4% (3 123/33 645), respectively. (4) Among the 70 640 infants, there were 124 extremely preterm infants (0.2%), 773 very preterm infants (1.1%), and 6 140 late preterm infants (8.7%), accounting for 1.8%, 11.0%, and 87.3% of all preterm infants (7 037 cases), respectively. (5) The optimal fitting results of Joinpoint regression indicated that the preterm birth rate showed a declining trend from 2013 to 2017 ( APC=-4.4%, 95% CI: -13.0% to -0.2%); with 2017 as the turning point, the preterm birth rate exhibited an upward trend from 2017 to 2022 ( APC=4.5%, 95% CI: 1.6% to 13.0%). (6) The results of ITS analysis revealed that the preterm birth rate instantly decreased by 0.79% ( β2=-0.79, P=0.026) in the month when the universal two-child policy took effect. In comparison, it increased by an average of 0.03% per month ( β3=0.07, P=0.001) after the implementation of the policy. After adjusting for the proportion of multiple births, the preterm birth rate significantly decreased before the policy took effect ( β1=-0.06, P=0.003), but increased by an average of 0.01% per month ( β3=0.07, P<0.001) after the policy took effect. There was no statistical significance in the transient impact of the policy on the preterm birth rate in this district ( β2=0.80, P=0.145). Conclusions:From 2013 to 2022, the preterm birth rates among women of advanced maternal age in Haidian District exhibit a "V"-shaped pattern with the implementation of the two-child policy as the turning point. It is necessary to continue strengthening maternal health care for women of advanced maternal age and ensure the targeted provision of related services to address the issue of increased preterm birth rates following the enforcement of the two-child policy.
7.Construction and application of a quality control and improvement system for metabolic and bariatric surgery in Beijing
Peirong TIAN ; Mengyi LI ; Jingli LIU ; Rixing BAI ; Jingtao BI ; Guanglong DONG ; Yanmin DU ; Jiagang HAN ; Wei HAN ; Yong JIANG ; Yuanxin LI ; Zhifei LI ; Hongwei LIN ; Diangang LIU ; Yang LIU ; Fanqiang MENG ; Runhong NI ; Jinghai SONG ; Qiang XU ; Wenmao YAN ; Nengwei ZHANG ; Chaohui ZHONG ; Peng ZHANG ; Zhongtao ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2025;63(7):624-629
Objective:To establish and assess the quality control and improvement system for metabolic and bariatric surgery in Beijing.Methods:Based on relevant documents from the National Health Commission and the Beijing Municipal Health Commission,and referencing the Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) by the American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery,a quality control system was developed under the Beijing Quality Control and Improvement Center of Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery. The system incorporated on-site evaluations,data registration,and specialized training. From May to December 2023,on-site assessments were conducted at 21 hospitals in Beijing performing bariatric surgery,evaluating personnel qualifications,infrastructure,clinical workflows,and postoperative follow-up. A quality control database was created to collect real-time surgical data,and training was provided for data entry and professional skills. Assessment results were classified as excellent,qualified,or needing improvement,with rectification suggestions offered and follow-up visits conducted to track progress.Results:All 21 hospitals achieved a 100% compliance rate for surgical indications, 16 (76.2%) met standardized surgical operation criteria,and 14 (66.7%) had standardized postoperative management. However,only 5 (23.8%) achieved a 12-month postoperative follow-up rate of ≥60%,and 4 (19.1%) had established specialized databases. Key challenges included insufficient specialized staffing (19.1%), lack of multidisciplinary collaboration (47.6%), inadequate equipment (57.1%), and low follow-up rates (57.1%). The database collected data from over 2 000 patients across 111 fields. After rectification, specialized database coverage rose to 61.9% (13 hospitals). Multi-level training programs developed backbone physicians and specialized nurses,significantly addressing the shortage of specialized personnel.Conclusion:The quality control system established in this study,through the integration of on-site evaluation,data registration,and specialized training,effectively enhances the standardization of surgical practices and data management capabilities.
8.Structural equation analysis and modeling of fect and ankles WMSDs and its adverse ergonomic factors
Xi ZHANG ; Ning JIA ; Xin SUN ; Meibian ZHANG ; Qing XU ; Huadong ZHANG ; Ruijie LING ; Yimin LIU ; Gang LI ; Yan YIN ; Hua SHAO ; Hengdong ZHANG ; Yanmin QI ; Bing QIU ; Tiebing LIU ; Dayu WANG ; Qiang ZENG ; Yan YE ; Bin XIAO ; Hua ZOU ; Jianchao CHEN ; Dongxia LI ; Yongquan LIU ; Jixiang LIU ; Enfei JIANG ; Jun QI ; Liangying MEI ; Tianlai LI ; Mimi YANG ; Xinwei GUO ; Zhongxu WANG
Chinese Journal of Industrial Hygiene and Occupational Diseases 2025;43(2):101-109
Objective:To explore the structural equation model to explore the levels of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) and various risk factors in the feet and ankle of China's occupational population, providing scientific basis for for preventing WMSDs in feet and ankles.Methods:Data of 73497 national occupational epidemiological cases were selected from June 2018 to December 2023 used the Chinese version of the Electronic Questionnaire on Musculoskeletal Disorders. The adverse ergonomic factors and their source classification standard and confirmatory factor analysis were used to investigate foot and ankle WMSDs and their related risk factors (including individual factors, work organization, work posture, work type, fatigue, etc.) in key occupational groups in China, and structural equation model hypothesis, fitting, verification, and path and intermediary effect analysis were carried out. The model fit evaluation indexes included Chi-square specific degrees of freedom ( χ2/ df), gauge fit index (NFI), Tucker Lewis index (TLI), goodness of Fit index (GFI), adjusted Goodness of Fit index (AGFI) and approximate root mean square error (RMSEA) . Results:A total of 73497 occupational workers were surveyed, with local muscle fatigue and WMSDs incidence rates in the feet and ankles being 17.17% and 12.06%, respectively. The fitting index of the adjusted structural equation model basically meets the standard (GFI=1, AGFI=1, RMESA=0.042, NFI=0.716, TLI=0.663). The top three factors affecting feet and ankle WMSDs are feet and ankle muscle fatigue, work type, and work organization, with standardized path coefficients of 0.221, 0.105, and 0.095, respectively. The top two factors affecting feet and ankle muscle fatigue are work organization and work type, with standardized path coefficients of 0.548 and 0.383, respectively. Feet and ankle muscle fatigue, work type, work organization, and work posture have a direct effect on feet and ankle WMSDs, with effect values of 0.221, 0.105, 0.095, and 0.077, respectively. The organization and type of work can also have indirect effects through feet and ankle muscle fatigue, with effect values of 0.121 and 0.084, respectively.Conclusion:Feet and ankle muscle fatigue has a direct impact on WMSDs, and plays a mediating role between ankle and ankle WMSDs caused by work organization and work type. Feet and ankle muscle fatigue is an important pathway leading to feet and ankle WMSDs. It is recommended that employers and managers detect job fatigue early and take corresponding prevention and intervention measures, which can play a key role in preventing feet and ankle WMSDs.
9.Practice research on the construction of a reserve teaching supervision expert echelon and competence improvement in university-affiliated hospitals
Mingyu DUAN ; Yanmin CHEN ; Huiming LI ; Xu ZHOU ; Jiayang XIA ; Jian LIN ; Yi ZHENG ; Chongzhi ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Medical Education Research 2025;24(8):1045-1050
Objective:To provide theoretical support and practice model for improving the clinical medical education supervision system of university-affiliated hospitals.Methods:This study focused on the group of reserve teaching supervision experts. Through literature research, questionnaire survey, and expert interview, the Competency Evaluation Criteria for Reserve Teaching Supervision Experts was constructed, which was implemented according to the training framework of "theory, practice, summary, and feedback". The paired t-test was performed using SPSS 24.0. Results:The research team formulated the Competency Evaluation Criteria for Reserve Teaching Supervision Experts through expert interviews. Six basic competencies and three advanced competencies for reserve teaching supervision experts were identified and their weights were assigned. A supervision team was established with supervision experts (including reserve teaching supervision experts) and teaching staff at a ratio of 1∶6.9, achieving an increase in the coverage of supervised specialties. A toolkit for enhancing the supervision capabilities of reserve experts was developed, and its effectiveness was analyzed. Statistical analysis showed that the overall score gap between reserve teaching supervision experts and senior supervision experts gradually narrowed. In terms of teaching demeanor and teaching effectiveness, there were no significant differences between the two types of experts. However, in terms of teaching content scores, there was a significant difference between reserve teaching supervision experts and senior supervision experts ( P<0.05). Conclusions:The training mechanism of reserve teaching supervision experts can effectively bridge the structural defects of the traditional supervision team. However, further emphasis is needed on the standardization and professionalization of teaching content supervision.
10.Predictive value of QTc for short-term prognosis in patients with cirrhotic ascites
Ye LI ; Shenghao LI ; Qingqing WANG ; Lu ZHANG ; Yanmin ZHENG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(7):1371-1379
Objective To explore the relationship between corrected QT interval(QTc)and short-term mortality rate in patients with cirrhotic ascites and the predictive value of QTc combined with Child-Pugh class for short-term death.Methods Patients hospitalized with cirrhotic ascites from October 2022 to March 2024 were selected as study subjects(training set,n=245),and similar patients from April to October 2024 were included for external validation(validation set,n=88).Patients'demographic data,basic clinical data,and first electrocardiography related indicators on admission were collected.Patients were divided into a death group and a survival group according to the 30-day follow-up result.The influencing factors for prognosis were explored by Lasso regression and univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression.A death risk nomogram model was constructed and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve),calibration curve,and decision curve.Data were analyzed for normality using Shapiro-Wilk test.Pairwise comparison for continuous data that were normally distributed was conducted by the independent-samples t test.Pairwise comparison for continuous data that were not normally distributed was conducted by the Mann-Whitney U test.Pairwise comparison for categorical data was performed using the chi-square test.Results The mortality rates were 35.1%(86/245)in the training set and 30.7%(27/88)in the validation set.Lasso regression showed that combined tumor,QTc,hematocrit,total bilirubin(TBil),direct bilirubin,alkaline phosphatase,albumin,cholinesterase,high-density lipoprotein cholesterol,carcinoembryonic antigen,international normalized ratio,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),and Child-Pugh class were potential influencing factors for 30-day death in patients with cirrhotic ascites.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression showed that QTc(odds ratio[OR]=1.010,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.001-1.020,P=0.039),presence of tumor(OR=6.904,95%CI:2.997-12.391,P<0.001),TBil(OR=1.009,95%CI:1.004-1.014,P=0.001),and Child-Pugh class(OR=2.532,95%CI:1.256-5.105,P=0.009)were independent risk factors for 30-day death in patients with cirrhotic ascites.For the nomogram model constructed based on the results of the multivariate logistic analysis,the area under the ROC curve in the training set was 0.824;the sensitivity and specificity were 81.1%and 74.4%,respectively;the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed P=0.673;the mean absolute error of the calibration curve was 0.020.The area under the ROC curve in the validation set was 0.886;the sensitivity and specificity were 91.8%and 70.4%,respectively;the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed P=0.965;the mean absolute error of the calibration curve was 0.032.With the threshold probability of 0.15 to 0.85,the decision curve suggested a good benefit.The area under the ROC curve of the predictive model(0.824)was greater than conventional MELD score(0.700),MELD-Na score(0.698),and Child-Pugh score(0.674)(all P<0.05).Conclusion QTc is an independent predictor of short-term death in patients with cirrhotic ascites,and the prognostic model including QTc and Child-Pugh class has a good predictive value for short-term mortality rate.

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