1.The incidence trend and age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County, Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022
Zhifei Chen ; Yimamu Maiwulajiang ; Kerimu Munire ; Liping Zhang ; Yanling Zheng
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2025;60(2):326-331
Objective:
To analyze the trend of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County of Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022 and the influence of age, period and birth cohort effect on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis, so as to provide a new theoretical reference for the prevention and control of local pulmonary tuberculosis.
Methods :
Based on the registration data of new pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Yecheng County, Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022, the connection point regression model was used to calculate the crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate, annual percentage change(APC), and average annual percentage change(AAPC) to describe the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the influence of age, period and birth cohort effect on the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence.
Results :
From 2011 to 2022, a total of 17 057 new cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were registered in Yecheng County, Xinjiang. The crude incidence and standardized incidence were 416.07/100 000 and 496.01/100 000, respectively. The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis increased first and then decreased during the 12 years, with an upward trend from 2011 to 2018. The APC values of the standardized incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in the total population, males and females were 24.42%(95%CI: 11.55-38.78), 27.24%(95%CI: 12.35-44.10) and 21.79%(95%CI: 9.81-35.09), respectively. From 2018 to 2022, there was a downward trend. The APC values of the standardized incidence of tuberculosis in the total population, males and females were-38.51%(95%CI:-53.27--19.09),-38.18%(95%CI:-54.59--15.85) and-38.73%(95%CI:-52.96--20.19), respectively. With the increase of age, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a trend of rising first and then fluctuating steadily. The risk of the population increased first and then decreased over time, and the later the birth, the lower the risk of the cohort.
Conclusion
The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County of Xinjiang showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing in the past 12 years, and gradually increased with age. The earlier the birth, the higher the risk of the disease. Men and the elderly are the key targets of tuberculosis prevention and control in Yecheng County, Xinjiang. It is recommended to strengthen the screening of key populations.
2.Discriminant analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis patients and pneumonia patients based on machine learning
Minli Chang ; Shuping You ; Xiaodie Chen ; Zhifei Chen ; Yanling Zheng
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2025;60(3):507-514
Objective :
To explore the feasibility of machine learning methods in the discrimination of tuberculosis patients.
Methods :
The data of 15 observation indicators of 860 patients were obtained from a tertiary hospital. Through in-depth mining and analysis of the data, support vector machine, random forest and neural network model methods were used to discriminate the diseases of patients.
Results :
The accuracies of the TB suspected patient discrimination models based on support vector machine, random forest and neural network were 90%, 91% and 88%, respectively.
Conclusion
All three machine learning methods can be used for discriminative analysis of suspected tuberculosis patients. In comparison, random forest performs better in discriminating patients with tuberculosis from those with pneumonia.
3.Spatial and temporal epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in Shache county, Kashgar region, 2019—2021
Xiaodie Chen ; Yimamu Maiwulajiang ; Minli Chang ; Lining Zhang ; Yanling Zheng
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2025;60(5):937-944
Objective:
To investigate the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of tuberculosis epidemics in Shache County, Kashgar Region, Xinjiang.
Methods:
Information on the incidence of tuberculosis in Sacha County from 2019—2021 was collected and spatiotemporally analyzed by applying the circular distribution method, local spatial autocorrelation analysis, hot and cold spot analysis, directional distribution and spatial center of gravity methods.
Results :
The total number of tuberculosis cases in Shache County in 2019—2021 was 8 345, of which 52.03%were male and 47.97% were female, and the patients were predominantly 60-75 years old. The number of reported incidences of TB in Tagarqi Township, Shache Township, and Chajek Township ranked among the top three in the county. Spring and summer were the disease-prone seasons for TB, and mid-March to mid-July was the period of high disease incidence. Misha Township and Ishkuli Township are the “high and high” gathering areas, while the “low and low” gathering areas are mainly concentrated in Khoshrav Township and Karasu Township. The hotspots of TB incidence in Shache county were Tagarqi township, Misha township, and Ishkuli township. During the study period, the center of gravity of TB incidence in Shache county of Kashgar area gradually shifted from the southwest to the northeast.
Conclusion
In Shache county, there is a certain degree of aggregation of tuberculosis outbreaks, with more men than women reporting illnesses, a larger proportion of older people, and a strong seasonal incidence of the disease, with Mixia township and Ishikuli township being the key areas of incidence. Relevant departments should continue to strengthen the disease surveillance of key populations and regions during the high incidence of tuberculosis, and take appropriate intervention measures to reduce the risk of tuberculosis transmission.
4.Clinical Observation of Dangui Siwei Yin Cell-Wall Broken Powder in Treating Degenerative Lumbar Spinal Stenosis with Qi Deficiency and Blood Stasis Syndrome
Zhaoyuan ZHANG ; Long CHEN ; Zhouhang ZHENG ; Hua SHEN ; Miaoling LIU ; Yanling LIANG ; Weixuan CHEN ; Yu ZHANG
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;42(11):2720-2727
Objective To evaluate the clinical efficacy of Dangui Siwei Yin cell-wall broken powder in the treatment of degenerative lumbar spinal stenosis(DLSS)with qi deficiency and blood stasis syndrome.Methods A randomized controlled trial was conducted on 72 patients with qi deficiency and blood stasis-typed DLSS admitted to Guangdong Second Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital(Huangpu Hospital)from November 2023 to January 2025.Patients were randomly divided into a cell-wall broken powder group and a traditional midicinal slice group(36 cases each)using a random number table method.Both groups received conventional western treatment(oral administration of Etoricoxib Tablets and Mecobalamin Tablets).Additionally,the cell-wall broken powder group was treated with Dangui Siwei Yin cell-wall broken powder,while the traditional midicinal slice group received traditional decoction of Dangui Siwei Yin.Both groups underwent a 1-week treatment course.Changes in Visual Analogue Scale(VAS)of pain scores,Oswestry Disability Index(ODI)scores,and Japanese Orthopaedic Association(JOA)lumbar function scores were observed before and after treatment.Clinical efficacy and medication safety were evaluated.Results(1)After one week of treatment,the total effective rate was 88.89%(32/36)in the cell-wall broken powder group and 75.00%(27/36)in the traditional midicinal slice group.The intergroup comparison(by chi-square test)showed that the efficacy in the cell-wall broken powder group was superior to the traditional midicinal slice group(P<0.05).(2)After treatment,VAS and ODI scores were significantly decreased in both groups(P<0.05),while JOA scores significantly increased(P<0.05).The cell-wall broken powder group demonstrated superior improvements in VAS and ODI reduction and JOA elevation compared to the traditional midicinal slice group(P<0.05).(3)The adverse reaction rate was 8.33%(3/36)in the cell-wall broken powder group and 11.11%(4/36)in the traditional midicinal slice group,with no statistically significant difference(P>0.05).Conclusion Compared with traditional midicinal slice,Dangui Siwei Yin cell-wall broken powder exhibit better efficacy in alleviating low back and leg pain and improving lumbar function in qi deficiency and blood stasis-typed DLSS patients.This study provides evidence-based medical support for the clinical application and further development of cell-wall broken powder formulations in traditional Chinese medicine.
5.Clinical investigations and comparative analysis of foodborne and iatrogenic botulism
Yaqing AN ; Tuokang ZHENG ; Baopu LYU ; Jianxing HOU ; Yanling DONG ; Hengbo GAO ; Dongqi YAO ; Yingping TIAN ; Yu GONG
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(9):1245-1250
Objective:This study aims to systematically compare the differences in severity, clinical manifestations, and treatment processes between patients with foodborne and iatrogenic botulism, thereby providing evidence-based support for clinical diagnosis and management.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on botulism patients admitted to the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University between January 2010 and July 2024. The foodborne group was diagnosed according to the WS/T 83-1996 standard. The iatrogenic group required a documented history of type A botulinum toxin injection and typical clinical manifestations. Individuals with comorbid neurological disorders or incomplete clinical data were excluded. The severity of poisoning was classified into three groups: mild, moderate, and severe, according to the "Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Botulism". SPSS 26.0 software was used to statistically analyze the distribution of poisoning severity between groups and to compare clinical symptoms and course indicators across severity grades.Results:A total of 220 botulism patients were included in this study, comprising 86 cases of foodborne poisoning (39.1%) and 134 cases of iatrogenic poisoning (60.9%). There was a significant difference in the distribution of poisoning severity between the two groups ( P=0.001), the proportion of severe poisoning was significantly higher in the foodborne group. Analysis of clinical symptoms indicated that, among patients with mild poisoning, the incidence of nausea and vomiting was significantly higher in the foodborne group, compared to that in the iatrogenic group (44.0% vs. 16.4%, P=0.006). In patients with moderate poisoning, the iatrogenic group exhibited a significantly higher prevalence of hoarseness (60.5% vs. 35.7%, P=0.041) and neck weakness (53.5% vs. 17.9%, P=0.003) compared to the foodborne group. Conversely, the foodborne cohort experienced a notably longer interval before seeking medical attention when compared to their iatrogenic counterparts (2.25 d vs. 1.50 d, P=0.003). Among severe poisoning patients, the foodborne group exhibited a higher likelihood of experiencing fever (51.5% vs. 25.0%, P=0.044) and abdominal distension accompanied by constipation (69.7% vs. 41.7%, P=0.034) when compared to the iatrogenic group. Furthermore, the foodborne cohort demonstrated a significantly shorter incubation period (1.00 d vs. 2.45 d, P<0.001), an extended length of hospitalization (22.0 d vs. 16.00 d, P=0.001), and a prolonged duration of antitoxin therapy (14.00 d vs. 9.50 d, P<0.001), alongside a markedly higher total dosage administered (315 900 U vs. 163 300 U, P<0.001) compared to their iatrogenic counterparts. Conclusions:Statistically significant differences exist between food-borne and iatrogenic botulism. Food-borne botulism is characterized by acute onset, greater severity, and a prolonged course, predominantly featuring systemic symptoms and gastrointestinal dysfunction. In contrast, iatrogenic botulism primarily manifests with ocular and oropharyngeal muscle symptoms and is generally less severe.
6.National health examination and the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis epidemic trend in Urumqi
Peiyao Zhou ; Feifei Li ; Yaoqin Lu ; Yanling Zheng ; Liping Zhang
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2025;60(8):1520-1525
Objective :
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in Urumqi and assess the im⁃pact of the national health examination policy , as well as COVID⁃19 prevention and control measures , on tuberculo⁃sis incidence in Xinjiang.
Methods:
The seasonal patterns of pulmonary tuberculosis were examined using the seasonal index method and circular distribution analysis. An Interrupted Time Series (ITS , Interrupted Time Series) model was employed to investigate how the national health examination policy and COVID_19 interventions influenced trends in tuberculosis incidence in Urumqi.
Results:
From 2013 to 2021 , a total of 19 ,049 cases of tuberculosis were reported in Urumqi. The peak incidence day occurred on May 25th , indicating a consistently high rate throughout the year, particularly during spring and summer months. The results of the interrupted time series model indicated that the initial monthly incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Urumqi was 5. 05 per 100 ,000. From January 2013 to September 2016 , the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a slow upward trend , and the upward trend was significant (β1 = 0. 039 ,P < 0. 05) . After the implementation of the universal health checkup policy , the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a slow downward trend , and the downward trend was significant(β3 = - 0. 109 ,P < 0. 05) . After the outbreak of the COVID_19 epidemic in January 2020 , the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Urumqi first dropped rapidly and then entered a slow upward stage , and the upward trend was significant(β5 = 0. 082 , P < 0. 05) .
Conclusion
It is recommended that public health authorities prioritize timely identification of potential TB patients during periods with elevated incidence rates observed in spring and summer months. While significant progress has been made through implementing national health examinations policies , attention must be directed towards understanding how ongoing epidemics affect TB patient detection. Thus , enhancing surveillance efforts and intervention strategies are essential in adapting to this new normal. Key words tuberculosis ; seasonal index method ; circular distribution method ; national health examination ; COVID_19 ; interruption time series
7.Spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2010 to 2022
Feifei Li ; Peiyao Zhou ; Yaoqin Lu ; Yanling Zheng ; Liping Zhang
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2024;59(12):2176-2182
Objective:
To analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Xinjiang, and to provide reference for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis.
Methods:
The reported incidence numbers of tuberculosis and population data from various counties, cities(prefectures), and districts in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2022 were collected. Based on spatial-temporal scan statistics, standard deviational ellipse analysis, and centroid migration models, the clustering and migration trends of tuberculosis incidence were evaluated. Utilizing Kriging interpolation techniques, an interpolation analysis of the 2022 incidence rate was conducted on an annual scale, with the reported incidence rate in 2018 serving as a temporal control, to identify hotspots of the spatio-temporal distribution. ArcGIS software was employed to visualize the continuous spatial trends of incidence rate changes.
Results:
The annual reported incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2022 varied year by year, with fluctuations and increases prior to 2018, peaking in 2018, and then declining annually thereafter. The spatial distribution of the incidence rate exhibited a trend of initial clustering followed by diffusion, with the centroid of incidence shifting towards the northeast, yet the epicenter of the epidemic remained in Aksu Prefecture. The results of spatiotemporal scan statistics analysis revealed that the three-level aggregated areas of the epidemic encompassed a total of 41 prefectures, counties, and cities, with the tuberculosis incidence risk in the primary and secondary aggregated areas being significantly higher than that in other regions(P<0.01). The Kriging interpolation prediction map suggested that the four prefectures in southern Xinjiang continued to be high-risk regions for tuberculosis(incidence rate>300/100 000). The overall incidence rate in the northern region was relatively low, with the lowest rate observed in Urumqi, radiating outwards.
Conclusion
The incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang shows an upward trend before 2018, followed by a year-on-year decrease. The centroid of the incidence rate shifts towards the northeast. From 2010 to 2022, the tuberculosis epidemic in Xinjiang exhibits a notable spatiotemporal clustering, particularly prominent in the southwestern region, where the four prefectures constitute high-risk areas for tuberculosis. The prevention and control efforts of tuberculosis in Xinjiang should prioritize the regions with high tuberculosis incidence, intensifying prevention and control measures as well as policy support.
8.Effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on hospitalization volume of ischemic heart disease in Urumqi City
Di WU ; Chenchen WANG ; Yaoqin LU ; Cheng LI ; Yu SHI ; YILIPA YILIHAMU ; Yanling ZHENG ; Liping ZHANG
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2024;41(10):1115-1123
Background The effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on ischemic heart disease (IHD) hospitalizations in Urumqi have not been fully understood. Objective To investigate the effects of meteorological conditions (temperature, relative humidity) and common air pollutants [fine particulate matter (PM2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM10), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO)] on the daily hospitalization volume of IHD, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of targeted prevention and management strategies. Methods Basic information of
9.Analysis on the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis before and after the COVID-19 in Hotan,Xinjiang,from 2015 to 2021
Yilihamu YILIPA ; Yuemaier NUERBIYE ; Di WU ; Yu SHI ; Yanling ZHENG ; Liping ZHANG
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2024;59(4):678-683
Objective To analyze the incidence characteristics and trends in pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture,before and after the epidemic,and to provide a reference basis for the formulation and evaluation of tu-berculosis prevention and control measures in the Hotan prefecture.Methods The Hotan prefecture's pulmonary tuberculosis incidence data was collected between 2015 and 2021.Joinpoint regression(JPR)model and Interrupt-ed Time Series(ITS)model were established to explore the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis,as well as the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures in Xinjiang on the incidence trend in Hotan,respectively.Furthermore,an analysis of variations in incidence among different age and gender subgroups was carried out.Re-sults The results of the JPR model showed that from 2015 to 2021,the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuber-culosis in the Hotan prefecture initially increased and then decreased,with a turning point appearing in December 2018.The incidence rate in males was slightly higher than that in females,and the turning point and incidence trend were consistent with the overall trend.Among all age subgroups,those≥60 age group had the highest inci-dence rate,with the trend also showing an initial increase followed by a decrease.A turning point in the incidence rate for the under 18 age group appeared in June 2021,yet the trend was not statistically significant(P>0.05).The turning points in the 19-59 age group and in those aged≥60 were consistent with the overall trend.The re-sults of the ITS model showed that the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture significantly decreased since January 2020,dropping from 319.28 per 100 000 in 2019 to 155.88 per 100 000 in 2021,a de-crease of 51.16%year-on-year,with a monthly average reduction of 0.049 per 100 000.Conclusion In 2018,Xinjiang province integrated tuberculosis screening into the universal health checkup for the entire population,which led to the identification of numerous cases of tuberculosis.In the Hotan prefecture,the reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis peaked in December 2018 and then started to decline.Under the impact of COVID-19 isola-tion measures in Xinjiang,the reported incidence rate showed a notable decrease starting in January 2020.Reitera-ting preventive measures and remaining watchful for the possible appearance of latent tuberculosis patients is crucial as the pandemic fades.
10.An early scoring system to predict mechanical ventilation for botulism:a single-center-based study
An YAQING ; Zheng TUOKANG ; Dong YANLING ; Wu YANG ; Gong YU ; Ma YU ; Xiao HAO ; Gao HENGBO ; Tian YINGPING ; Yao DONGQI
World Journal of Emergency Medicine 2024;15(5):365-371
BACKGROUND:Early identification of patients requiring ventilator support will be beneficial for the outcomes of botulism.The present study aimed to establish a new scoring system to predict mechanical ventilation(MV)for botulism patients. METHODS:A single-center retrospective study was conducted to identify risk factors associated with MV in botulism patients from 2007 to 2022.Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to screen out risk factors for constructing a prognostic scoring system.The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was calculated. RESULTS:A total of 153 patients with botulism(66 males and 87 females,with an average age of 43 years)were included.Of these,49 patients(32.0%)required MV,including 21(13.7%)with invasive ventilation and 28(18.3%)with non-invasive ventilation.Multivariate analysis revealed that botulinum toxin type,pneumonia,incubation period,degree of hypoxia,and severity of muscle involvement were independent risk factors for MV.These risk factors were incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression analysis to establish a prognostic scoring system.Each risk factor was scored by allocating a weight based on its regression coefficient and rounded to whole numbers for practical utilization([botulinum toxin type A:1],[pneumonia:2],[incubation period≤1 day:2],[hypoxia<90%:2],[severity of muscle involvement:grade II,3;grade III,7;grade IV,11]).The scoring system achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.82(95%CI 0.75-0.89,P<0.001).At the optimal threshold of 9,the scoring system achieved a sensitivity of 83.7%and a specificity of 70.2%. CONCLUSION:Our study identified botulinum toxin type,pneumonia,incubation period,degree of hypoxia,and severity of muscle involvement as independent risk factors for MV in botulism patients.A score≥9 in our scoring system is associated with a higher likelihood of requiring MV in botulism patients.This scoring system needs to be validated externally before it can be applied in clinical settings.


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