1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Expert Consensus on Clinical Application of Qidong Yixin Oral Liquid
Changkuan FU ; Xiaochang MA ; Mingjun ZHU ; Yue DENG ; Hongxu LIU ; Mingxue ZHANG ; Ying CHEN ; Yan ZHOU ; Ling ZHANG ; Jianhua FU ; Wei YANG ; Yu'er HU ; Ming CHEN ; Yanming XIE ; Yuanyuan LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(4):147-158
The prescription of Qidong Yixin oral liquid is derived from the experience of national medical master Ren Jixue in treating viral myocarditis (VMC). It has the functions of tonifying Qi, nourishing the heart,calming the mind, and relieving palpitations. It is used to treat VMC and angina pectoris of coronary heart disease caused by deficiency of both Qi and Yin. However,the understanding of its efficacy evidence, advantageous aspects, dosage and administration, and medication safety remains insufficient in clinical practice. Therefore,the development of the Expert Consensus on the Clinical Application of Qidong Yixin Oral Liquid (hereinafter referred to as consensus) was initiated. Consensus strictly followed the process and methods of the expert consensus on the clinical application of Chinese patent medicines of the China Association of Chinese Medicine,successively completing multiple tasks such as the consensus project initiation,determination of clinical problems,evidence search and evaluation,formation of recommendation opinions and consensus suggestions,solicitation of opinions,peer review, submission for review and release, and so on. Consensus formed a total of 10 recommendation opinions and 12 consensus suggestions,clarifying the clinical positioning,efficacy advantages,syndrome differentiation,dosage and administration,combination therapy,timing of medication,adverse reactions,contraindications, and precautions of Qidong Yixin oral liquid,indicating that it has good clinical advantages and safety in the treatment of VMC and angina pectoris of coronary heart disease,providing norms and references for physicians to safely and rationally apply Qidong Yixin oral liquid. Consensus was reviewed and approved for release by the Standardization Office of the China Association of Chinese Medicine on December 23, 2024. Standard number:GSCACM-376-2024.
3.Pharmacodynamic Substances and Mechanisms of Xinglou Chengqi Tang in Treating Post-stroke Complications: A Review
Yujin ZHANG ; Xiangzhuo LIU ; Zhouyang CHEN ; Zihao SONG ; Xinyi LIU ; Yizhi YAN ; Chaoya LI ; Yingyan FANG ; Shasha YANG ; Xueqin CHENG ; Zhou XIE ; Sijie TAN ; Peng ZENG ; Yue ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(1):327-337
Stroke is the leading cause of death and disability among adults in China, and its common complications include digestive system abnormalities, cognitive impairment, depression, stroke-associated pneumonia, and hemiplegia. The combination of traditional Chinese and Western medicine has great potential in treating post-stroke complications. Xinglou Chengqitang (XLCQT) is a representative prescription of alleviating the disease in the upper part by treating the lower part. It has definite therapeutic effect and high safety. Clinically, XLCQT is often used to treat stroke and its complications. However, the quantity and quality of clinical trials of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications need to be improved. Additionally, since the basic research is weak, the material basis and multi-target mechanism for the efficacy of this prescription are unknown. This article reviews XLCQT in terms of the pharmacodynamic basis, medicinal properties, safety evaluation, and progress in clinical research and mechanisms in treating post-stroke complications. This article summarizes 22 key active ingredients of XLCQT in treating acute stroke complicated with syndrome of phlegm heat and fu-organ excess. Among these key active ingredients, resveratrol, kaempferol, luteolin, chrysoeriol, apigenin, (+)-catechin, and adenosine have good pharmacokinetic properties and high bioavailability. The mechanisms of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications are complex, including inflammatory response, brain-gut axis, hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, intestinal flora, neurotrophic factors, autophagy, oxidative stress, and free radical damage. This review helps to deeply understand the pharmacodynamic basis and mechanisms of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications and provides a theoretical basis for the clinical application of XLCQT against post-stroke complications and the development of drugs.
4.Correlation of Symptom Burden and Nutritional Status of Patients with Cancer in Chemotherapy Stage Under Guidance of TCM Constitution
Bailu SUI ; Yuhang FANG ; Yi XIE ; Yan WANG ; Ying ZHANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2026;53(2):127-132
Objective To investigate the relationship between symptom burden and nutritional status under Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) constitution classification in patients undergoing chemotherapy. Methods Data on the physical constitution, symptom burden, and nutritional status of 640 patients with malignant tumors within the 21st–28th days of chemotherapy treatment were collected and analyzed. Results Symptom burden was found to have a positive correlation with nutritional risk and TCM bias (except for idiosyncrasies), suggesting that constitution bias may be an important internal factor for the aggravation of clinical symptoms and malnutrition in patients with cancer. Conclusion The relationship between symptom burden and nutritional status in chemotherapy under the guidance of TCM constitution can be studied to predict the nutritional status and symptom burden of patients after chemotherapy to guide the symptom and nutritional management of patients with cancer in the chemotherapy stage.
5.Research progress of red light therapy for dry eye and visual fatigue
Yutong XIE ; Siyu JIA ; Jiamin GAO ; Ruofan LIU ; Meiling LI ; Jiangying LI ; Xi LUO ; Xiaonan LI ; Rong YAN ; Hongbo LI
International Eye Science 2026;26(4):636-640
Dry eye disease(DED)is a common ocular surface disorder worldwide, primarily characterized by a loss of homeostasis of the tear film, and frequently associated with meibomian gland dysfunction(MGD), decreased tear film stability, ocular discomfort, and visual impairment. In recent years, factors such as the widespread use of digital devices,the aging population, and environmental changes have contributed to a significant increase in its global prevalence, making it a major public health concern. Red light therapy(RLT), also known as low-level laser therapy(LLLT)or photobiomodulation(PBM), is a non-invasive treatment that utilizes low-energy red or near-infrared light to irradiate tissues. It exerts photobiomodulatory effects to promote cellular repair and functional recovery. This therapy has demonstrated considerable potential in treating various ocular conditions. Its broader clinical application could improve therapeutic outcomes, alleviate patient discomfort and financial burden, and reduce the consumption of healthcare resources, thereby yielding significant socio-economic benefits. This paper systematically reviews the multifaceted mechanisms and application prospects of RLT in managing DED, including its anti-inflammatory effects, improvement of meibomian gland function, promotion of conjunctival goblet cell repair, and alleviation of visual fatigue, aiming to provide a theoretical foundation and practical reference for its clinical adoption.
6.The effect of body mass index and inferior pulmonary ligament division on the residual lung expansion after right upper lobectomy: A retrospective cohort study in a single center
Guang MU ; Wenhao ZHANG ; Hongchang WANG ; Yan GU ; Chenghao FU ; Wentao XUE ; Shiyuan XIE ; Tong WANG ; Ke WEI ; Yang XIA ; Liang CHEN ; Jun WANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(02):261-266
Objective To analyze the effect of releasing the lower pulmonary ligament on right residual lung expansion after right upper lobe resection under different body mass index (BMI) levels. Methods The clinical data of patients who underwent thoracoscopic right upper lobe resection in the First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University from 2021 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into a group A (17 kg/m2<BMI≤23 kg/m2), a group B (23 kg/m2<BMI≤29 kg/m2) and a group C (BMI>29 kg/m2) according to BMI. The presence of residual cavity was judged by chest X-ray at 7-10 days after operation, the degree of compensation change of the right main bronchus angle was measured, and the changes in lung volume were determined by CT three-dimensional reconstruction. Results A total of 157 patients who underwent thoracoscopic right upper lobe resection were included, including 71 males and 86 females, with an average age of (59.7±11.2) years. There were 50 patients in the group A, 75 patients in the group B, and 32 patients in the group C. In the group A, compared with those without releasing the lower pulmonary ligament, patients with releasing had a lower incidence of postoperative residual cavity (P=0.016), greater changes in bronchus angle (P<0.001), and smaller changes in lung volume (P<0.001). In the group B and C, there was no significant effect of releasing the lower pulmonary ligament on postoperative residual cavity, bronchus angle, and lung volume changes (P>0.05). Conclusion For patients with thin and long body shape and low BMI, releasing the lower pulmonary ligament is helpful to promote the expansion of the residual lung after right upper lobe resection and reduce the occurrence of postoperative residual cavity in patients.
7.Chinese expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of chronic pain after lung surgery with integrated Traditional Chinese and Western medicine (2026 edition)
Jichen QU ; Wentian ZHANG ; Jianqiao CAI ; Zhigang CHEN ; Bin LI ; Wei DAI ; Xiangwu WANG ; Yan LI ; Xiang LÜ ; ; Yongfu ZHU ; Mingran XIE ; Sufang ZHANG ; Lei JIANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(04):522-534
Chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP) is a common long-term complication following lung surgery. Its high incidence significantly impacts patients’ quality of life and functional recovery, and imposes a substantial socioeconomic burden. This consensus aims to systematically establish a standardized integrated Chinese and Western medicine diagnostic and treatment framework for chronic post-lung surgery pain (CPLSP). Based on the latest domestic and international evidence-based medical research and multidisciplinary clinical experience, the working group comprehensively elaborates on core issues regarding CPLSP, including its definition, epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical assessment, Western medical treatment, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) treatment, and integrated strategies. The consensus emphasizes a patient-centered approach, adhering to the principles of multimodality, individualization, and stepwise management, highlighting the synergistic advantages of integrating Chinese and Western medicine throughout the entire perioperative management cycle encompassing "perioperative anti-inflammation, acute analgesia, and chronic rehabilitation." Through systematic literature retrieval and evidence integration, a total of 9 core recommendations were established to provide scientifically sound and clinically practical guidance.
8.Research hotspots and visual analysis on the medical artificial intelligence ethics at home and abroad
Mengze LYU ; Hongji LIN ; Ya’nan BA ; Yan ZHANG ; Jin XIE ; Yun LIU
Chinese Medical Ethics 2026;39(3):287-299
To conduct a bibliometric and keyword analysis on the domestic and international literature of medical artificial intelligence (AI) ethics, explore the research frontiers, hotspots, and development trends in this field, and provide references for promoting the construction of China’s ethical governance system on medical AI. Utilizing CiteSpace software, a comparative analysis was conducted between the reviewed domestic and international literature regarding their publication volume, author and institutional collaboration networks, as well as keyword co-occurrence, clustering, timeline graph, and burst, to explore the research hotspots and development trends in the field. A total of 2 393 Chinese and English publications were included. In recent years, research topics in medical AI ethics both domestically and internationally focused on three aspects, encompassing their theoretical research, emerging domains and their ethical risks, as well as the ethical governance and regulation of medical AI. International research hotspots included federated learning, computer-aided detection, informed consent, and other aspects, whereas domestic research hotspots were smart healthcare, responsibility ethics, ethical values, and other aspects. Internationally, greater attention was placed on ethical issues concerning population health and healthcare in the public health domain, whereas domestic research topics tended to focus more on theoretical discussions and the establishment of ethical principles. The ethical governance of medical AI represents a shared global challenge, necessitating enhanced research into both the variances and commonalities in this field.
9.Research progress on the mechanism of anti-hepatic fibrosis by alkaloids in traditional Chinese medicine
Danping FANG ; Fangyuan XIE ; Yan WANG ; Weiheng XU
Journal of Pharmaceutical Practice and Service 2026;44(4):173-177
Hepatic fibrosis is a pathological repair response of the liver to various chronic injuries, commonly seen in chronic liver diseases such as viral hepatitis, alcoholic liver disease, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, etc. Hepatic fibrosis is a necessary stage for the development of chronic liver disease into cirrhosis or even hepatocellular carcinoma. Reversing or delaying the progression of hepatic fibrosis is crucial for the treatment of chronic liver disease, but there are currently no safe and effective therapeutic drugs in clinical practice. In recent years, research has found that many alkaloids in traditional Chinese medicine have anti-fibrotic activity, and their mechanisms involved multiple aspects such as cell autophagy, antioxidation, and anti-inflammation. The anti-fibrotic effects and mechanisms of alkaloids from traditional Chinese medicine were reviewed, which could provide reference for the application of alkaloids in the prevention and treatment of hepatic fibrosis.
10.Prenatal ultrasound manifestations and postnatal follow-up of fetuses with 22q11.2 microdeletion syndrome.
Xiaofei LIU ; Ya'nan WANG ; Tizhen YAN ; Shengli ZHANG ; Yanchuan XIE ; Jiwu LOU ; Hongwei JIANG
Chinese Journal of Medical Genetics 2026;43(1):31-35
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the prenatal and postnatal phenotypes of 22q11.2 microdeletion syndrome (22q11.2DS) and enhance clinical understanding of this condition.
METHODS:
Data were collected from 86 fetuses diagnosed with 22q11.2DS at four prenatal diagnostic centers across China between January 2014 and August 2025. Prenatal imaging findings, pregnancy outcomes, and postnatal conditions were analyzed.
RESULTS:
Among the 86 fetuses, complete ultrasound data were available for 65 cases. Cardiovascular abnormalities were observed in 42 cases, thymic hypoplasia or aplasia in 7 cases, urinary system anomalies in 6 cases, nuchal translucency (NT) thickening in 7 cases, butterfly vertebrae, clubfoot, omphalocele and diaphragmatic hernia in 1 case each, cleft lip and palate in 2 cases, and ultrasound soft markers in 13 cases. The parents of 9 fetuses opted to continue with the pregnancy. Among these, 6 showed no significant ultrasound abnormalities and no related phenotypes postnatally, while the remaining 3 exhibited ultrasound anomalies with postnatal manifestations including developmental delay, immunodeficiency, and cardiac defects.
CONCLUSION
Fetuses with 22q11.2DS may exhibit various ultrasound abnormalities in multiple systems before and after birth. In addition to cardiovascular anomalies, they may also present with thymic hypoplasia or aplasia, thickened NT, and urinary abnormalities. Fetuses with thickened NT or thymic anomalies should be closely monitored, and thymic assessment should be included in routine prenatal imaging evaluations. For fetuses with 22q11.2DS who show no ultrasound abnormalities, the risk of developing severe phenotypes after birth is relatively low, but occult palate clefts and psychiatric disorders cannot be ruled out. Due to limitations in sample size and follow-up duration, above conclusions require further validation through large-scale prospective studies.
Humans
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Female
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Pregnancy
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Ultrasonography, Prenatal
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DiGeorge Syndrome/genetics*
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Adult
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Male
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Follow-Up Studies
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Fetus/diagnostic imaging*
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Phenotype
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Infant, Newborn


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