Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Acute lung injury （ALI） is one of the most common and critical diseases in clinical practice， with extremely high morbidity and mortality， seriously threatening human life and health. The pathogenesis of ALI is complex， in which the inflammatory response is a key factor. Studies have shown that NOD-like receptor protein 3 （NLRP3） inflammasomes are involved in ALI through mechanisms such as inflammation induction， increased microvascular permeability， recruitment of neutrophils， oxidative stress， and pyroptosis， playing a key role in the occurrence and progression of ALI. Therefore， regulating NLRP3 inflammasomes and inhibiting the release of inflammatory factors can alleviate the damage in ALI. At present， ALI is mainly treated by mechanical ventilation and oxygen therapy， which have problems such as high costs and poor prognosis. In recent years， studies have shown that traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） can reduce the inflammatory response and the occurrence of oxidative stress and pyroptosis by regulating the NLRP3 inflammasome， thus alleviating the damage and decreasing the mortality of ALI. Based on the relevant literature in recent years， this article reviews the research progress in TCM treatment of ALI by regulating NLRP3 inflammasomes， discusses how NLRP3 inflammasomes participate in ALI， and summarizes the active ingredients， extracts， and compound prescriptions of TCM that regulate NLRP3 inflammasomes， aiming to provide new ideas for the clinical treatment of ALI and the development of relevant drugs.

ObjectiveTo investigate the analgesic effect of Tuina at the "Weizhong （BL 40）" on neuropathic pain in a rat model of chronic constriction injury （CCI） of the sciatic nerve and its potential central spinal mechanisms. MethodsThirty-two Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into four groups （8 rats in each group）， sham-operated group， model group， Tuina group， and blockade group. The CCI model was established in the model group， Tuina group， and the blockade group by ligating the sciatic nerve with catgut， while the sham-operated group underwent only sciatic nerve exposure without ligation. From postoperative day 4 to day 14， rats in the Tuina group and the blockade group received Tuina manipulation at the "Weizhong （BL 40）" using a dynamic pressure distribution measurement system （5 N pressure， 2 Hz frequency， 10 min per session， once daily）. The blockade group also received intraperitoneal injections of the microglial inhibitor minocycline （10 mg/kg） once daily. The sham-operated and the model group underwent the same handling and fixation as the Tuina group without actual Tuina. Mechanical withdrawal threshold （MWT） and paw withdrawal latency （PWL） were measured before surgery and on day 3， 7， 10， and 14 post-surgery. Transmission electron microscopy was used to evaluate sciatic nerve injury and repair， measuring axon diameter and total myelinated fiber diameter to calculate the g-ratio. Western Blotting was performed to detect the protein levels of ionized calcium-binding adapter molecule 1 （Iba-1）， CD206， CD68， interleukin-10 （IL-10）， and β-endorphin （β-EP） precursor pro-opiomelanocortin （POMC） in the ipsilateral spinal dorsal horn. ResultsCompared with the sham-operated group， the model group showed significantly reduced MWT and PWL on day 3， 7， 10， and 14 （P＜0.01）. Compared with the model group， the Tuina group and the blockade group showed increased MWT and PWL on day 10 and 14 （P＜0.05）. Compared with the Tuina group， the blockade group exhibited higher MWT on day 7， 10， and 14， and higher PWL on day 10 （P＜0.05）. Sciatic nerve pathological morphology revealed intact and well-structured myelin in the sham-operated group， while the model group exhibited myelin collapse， distortion， and myelin ovoid formation. The Tuina group displayed partially irregular myelin with occasional myelin collapse， whereas the blockade group exhibited partial myelin irregularities and phospholipid shedding. Compared with the sham-operated group， the model group showed a decreased g-ratio and increased levels of Iba-1 and CD68 in the spinal dorsal horn （P＜0.05 or P＜0.01）. Compared with the model group， the Tuina group and the blockade group exhibited an increased g-ratio and reduced Iba-1 and CD68 levels. Additionally， the Tuina group showed elevated levels of CD206， IL-10， and POMC， whereas the blockade group had decreased CD206 levels （P＜0.05）. ConclusionTuina at "Weizhong （BL 40）" alleviates neuropathic pain in CCI rats， potentially by regulating microglial activation in the spinal cord， inhibiting M1 polarization while promoting M2 polarization， and activating the IL-10/β-EP pathway to exert analgesic effects.

[Objective] To explore the relationship between neutrophil activation under cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) and the incidence of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CS-AKI). [Methods] This prospective cohort study enrolled adult patients who scheduled for cardiac surgery under CPB at West China Hospital between May 1, 2022 and March 31, 2023. The primary outcome was acute kidney injury (AKI). Blood samples (5 mL) were obtained from the central vein before surgery, at rewarming, at the end of CPB, and 24 hours after surgery. Neutrophils were labeled with CD11b, CD54 and other markers. To assess the effect of neutrophils activation on AKI, propensity score matching (PSM) was employed to equilibrate covariates between the groups. [Results] A total of 120 patients included into the study, and 17 (14.2%) developed AKI. Both CD11b⁺ and CD54⁺ neutrophils significantly increased during the rewarming phase and the increases were kept until 24 hours after surgery. During rewarming, the numbers of CD11b⁺ neutrophils were significantly higher in AKI compared to non-AKI (4.71×10⁹/L vs 3.31×10⁹/L, Z=-2.14, P<0.05). Similarly, the CD54⁺ neutrophils counts were also significantly higher in AKI than in non-AKI before surgery (2.75×10⁹/L vs 1.79×10⁹/L, Z=-2.99, P<0.05), during rewarming (3.12×10⁹/L vs 1.62×10⁹/L, Z=-4.34, P<0.05), and at the end of CPB (4.28×10⁹/L vs 2.14×10⁹/L, Z=-3.91, P<0.05). An analysis of 32 matched patients (16 in each group) revealed that CD11b⁺ and CD54⁺ neutrophil levels of AKI were 1.74 folds (4.83×10⁹/L vs 2.77×10⁹/L, Z=-2.72, P<0.05) and 2.34 folds (3.32×10⁹/L vs 1.42×10⁹/L, Z=-4.12, P<0.05), respectively, of non-AKI at rewarming phase. [Conclusion] Neutrophils are activated during CPB, and they can be identified by CD11b/CD54 markers. The activated neutrophils of AKI patients are approximately 2 folds of non-AKI during the rewarming phase, with disparity reached peak between groups during rewarming. These findings suggest the removal of 50% of activated neutrophils during the rewarming phase may be effective to reduce the risk of AKI.

Objective: To investigate the potential of conventional cranial computed tomography (CT) in assessing the early neurological deterioration(END), long-term prognosis, and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome elements during the acute phase in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods: This study included 101 patients with AIS onset within 24 h in the Emergency Department of Fangshan Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, from November 2019 to May 2021. To investigate the correlation between the relevant characteristics of the first conventional cranial CT in patients with AIS onset within 24 h and END, 90 d prognosis, and initial syndrome elements, the presence or absence of END, the 90 d prognosis (non-disabling outcome or functionally independent outcome), and the establishment of syndrome elements (internal fire, phlegm-dampness, blood stasis, qi deficiency, yin deficiency) were used as dependent variables and grouping criteria. Results: This study included 61 males and 40 females, with an age of (64.43±10.56) years. The time from onset to conventional cranial CT examination was 3.50 (1.50, 9.75) h. Among the patients, there were 70 cases (69.3%) of mild AIS, 30 cases (29.7%) of moderate AIS, and one case (1.0%) of severe AIS. Fifteen patients (14.9%) received intravenous thrombolysis. Among the 101 patients, six syndrome elements were observed within 24 h of onset: internal wind in 101 cases (100.0%), internal fire in 58 cases (57.4%), phlegm-dampness in 60 cases (59.4%), blood stasis in 67 cases (66.3%), qi deficiency in 39 cases (38.6%), and yin deficiency in 23 cases (22.8%). The incidence of END was higher in patients with lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (32.9%) than in those without such lesions (10.7%), showing a strong positive correlation with END occurrence (OR=4.082, P = 0.026). The incidence of END was higher in patients with lesions in the basal ganglia region (33.3%) and the carotid system blood supply area (32.8%) than in those without lesions in the basal ganglia region (15.8%) and the carotid system territory (14.7%), showing moderate positive correlations with END occurrence (OR=2.667, P =0.047; OR=2.836, P=0.044). The proportion of non-disabling outcomes was lower among patients with white matter degeneration (30.8%) and lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (52.1%) than in those without white matter degeneration (63.6%) and without such lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (78.6%), both showing strong negative correlations with the occurrence of non-disabling outcomes (OR=0.254, P=0.034; OR=0.296, P=0.015). Similarly, the proportion of functionally independent outcomes was lower among individuals with white matter degeneration (30.8%) and lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (64.4%) than in those without white matter degeneration (77.3%) and without such lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (89.3%), both also showing strong negative correlations with the occurrence of functionally independent outcomes (OR=0.131, P=0.001; OR=0.217, P=0.014). The incidence rates of internal fire, blood stasis, and yin deficiency syndrome elements were 66.7%, 73.0%, and 30.2%, respectively, among patients with lesions in the basal ganglia region, compared to 42.1%, 55.3%, and 10.5% among those without lesions in this region. The presence of lesions in the basal ganglia region showed moderate to strong positive correlations with internal fire and yin deficiency syndrome elements (OR=2.750, P=0.016; OR=3.670, P=0.028). Patients with lesions in the centrum semiovale and corona radiata regions (66.7%) had a higher incidence of qi deficiency than those without lesions in this region (33.7%), showing a strong positive correlation with the occurrence of qi deficiency (OR=3.931, P=0.022). No CT characteristics were found to be correlated with phlegm-dampness syndrome elements. Conclusion The first cranial CT in patients with AIS has potential application value in predicting disease progression, assessing prognosis, and diagnosing syndromes, which can provide physicians with diagnostic and treatment decisions to improve the long-term prognosis of patients with AIS.

Background: The genetic basis for hyperglycaemia in pregnancy remain unclear. This study aimed to uncover the genetic determinants of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and investigate their applications. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for GDM in Chinese women (464 cases and 1,217 controls), followed by de novo replications in an independent Chinese cohort (564 cases and 572 controls) and in silico replication in European (12,332 cases and 131,109 controls) and multi-ethnic populations (5,485 cases and 347,856 controls). A polygenic risk score (PRS) was derived based on the identified variants. Results: Using the genome-wide scan and candidate gene approaches, we identified four susceptibility loci for GDM. These included three previously reported loci for GDM and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at MTNR1B (rs7945617, odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.38 to 1.96]), CDKAL1 (rs7754840, OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.58), and INS-IGF2-KCNQ1 (rs2237897, OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79), as well as a novel genome-wide significant locus near TBR1-SLC4A10 (rs117781972, OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.61 to 2.62; Pmeta=7.6×10-9), which has not been previously reported in GWAS for T2DM or glycaemic traits. Moreover, we found that women with a high PRS (top quintile) had over threefold (95% CI, 2.30 to 4.09; Pmeta=3.1×10-14) and 71% (95% CI, 1.08 to 2.71; P=0.0220) higher risk for GDM and abnormal glucose tolerance post-pregnancy, respectively, compared to other individuals. Conclusion Our results indicate that the genetic architecture of glucose metabolism exhibits both similarities and differences between the pregnant and non-pregnant states. Integrating genetic information can facilitate identification of pregnant women at a higher risk of developing GDM or later diabetes.

Background: In acute and chronic renal inflammatory diseases, the activation of inflammatory cells is involved in the defect of erythropoietin (EPO) production. Ras guanine nucleotide-releasing protein-4 (RasGRP4) promotes renal inflammatory injury in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Our study aimed to investigate the role and mechanism of RasGRP4 in the production of renal EPO in diabetes. Methods: The degree of tissue injury was observed by pathological staining. Inflammatory cell infiltration was analyzed by immunohistochemical staining. Serum EPO levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and EPO production and renal interstitial fibrosis were analyzed by immunofluorescence. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and Western blotting were used to detect the expression of key inflammatory factors and the activation of signaling pathways. In vitro, the interaction between peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and C3H10T1/2 cells was investigated via cell coculture experiments. Results: RasGRP4 decreased the expression of hypoxia-inducible factor 2-alpha (HIF2A) via the ubiquitination–proteasome degradation pathway and promoted myofibroblastic transformation by activating critical inflammatory pathways, consequently reducing the production of EPO in T2DM mice. Conclusion RasGRP4 participates in the production of renal EPO in diabetic mice by affecting the secretion of proinflammatory cytokines in PBMCs, degrading HIF2A, and promoting the myofibroblastic transformation of C3H10T1/2 cells.

Background: The genetic basis for hyperglycaemia in pregnancy remain unclear. This study aimed to uncover the genetic determinants of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and investigate their applications. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for GDM in Chinese women (464 cases and 1,217 controls), followed by de novo replications in an independent Chinese cohort (564 cases and 572 controls) and in silico replication in European (12,332 cases and 131,109 controls) and multi-ethnic populations (5,485 cases and 347,856 controls). A polygenic risk score (PRS) was derived based on the identified variants. Results: Using the genome-wide scan and candidate gene approaches, we identified four susceptibility loci for GDM. These included three previously reported loci for GDM and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at MTNR1B (rs7945617, odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.38 to 1.96]), CDKAL1 (rs7754840, OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.58), and INS-IGF2-KCNQ1 (rs2237897, OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79), as well as a novel genome-wide significant locus near TBR1-SLC4A10 (rs117781972, OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.61 to 2.62; Pmeta=7.6×10-9), which has not been previously reported in GWAS for T2DM or glycaemic traits. Moreover, we found that women with a high PRS (top quintile) had over threefold (95% CI, 2.30 to 4.09; Pmeta=3.1×10-14) and 71% (95% CI, 1.08 to 2.71; P=0.0220) higher risk for GDM and abnormal glucose tolerance post-pregnancy, respectively, compared to other individuals. Conclusion Our results indicate that the genetic architecture of glucose metabolism exhibits both similarities and differences between the pregnant and non-pregnant states. Integrating genetic information can facilitate identification of pregnant women at a higher risk of developing GDM or later diabetes.

Background: In acute and chronic renal inflammatory diseases, the activation of inflammatory cells is involved in the defect of erythropoietin (EPO) production. Ras guanine nucleotide-releasing protein-4 (RasGRP4) promotes renal inflammatory injury in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Our study aimed to investigate the role and mechanism of RasGRP4 in the production of renal EPO in diabetes. Methods: The degree of tissue injury was observed by pathological staining. Inflammatory cell infiltration was analyzed by immunohistochemical staining. Serum EPO levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and EPO production and renal interstitial fibrosis were analyzed by immunofluorescence. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and Western blotting were used to detect the expression of key inflammatory factors and the activation of signaling pathways. In vitro, the interaction between peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and C3H10T1/2 cells was investigated via cell coculture experiments. Results: RasGRP4 decreased the expression of hypoxia-inducible factor 2-alpha (HIF2A) via the ubiquitination–proteasome degradation pathway and promoted myofibroblastic transformation by activating critical inflammatory pathways, consequently reducing the production of EPO in T2DM mice. Conclusion RasGRP4 participates in the production of renal EPO in diabetic mice by affecting the secretion of proinflammatory cytokines in PBMCs, degrading HIF2A, and promoting the myofibroblastic transformation of C3H10T1/2 cells.

Background: The genetic basis for hyperglycaemia in pregnancy remain unclear. This study aimed to uncover the genetic determinants of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and investigate their applications. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for GDM in Chinese women (464 cases and 1,217 controls), followed by de novo replications in an independent Chinese cohort (564 cases and 572 controls) and in silico replication in European (12,332 cases and 131,109 controls) and multi-ethnic populations (5,485 cases and 347,856 controls). A polygenic risk score (PRS) was derived based on the identified variants. Results: Using the genome-wide scan and candidate gene approaches, we identified four susceptibility loci for GDM. These included three previously reported loci for GDM and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at MTNR1B (rs7945617, odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.38 to 1.96]), CDKAL1 (rs7754840, OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.58), and INS-IGF2-KCNQ1 (rs2237897, OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79), as well as a novel genome-wide significant locus near TBR1-SLC4A10 (rs117781972, OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.61 to 2.62; Pmeta=7.6×10-9), which has not been previously reported in GWAS for T2DM or glycaemic traits. Moreover, we found that women with a high PRS (top quintile) had over threefold (95% CI, 2.30 to 4.09; Pmeta=3.1×10-14) and 71% (95% CI, 1.08 to 2.71; P=0.0220) higher risk for GDM and abnormal glucose tolerance post-pregnancy, respectively, compared to other individuals. Conclusion Our results indicate that the genetic architecture of glucose metabolism exhibits both similarities and differences between the pregnant and non-pregnant states. Integrating genetic information can facilitate identification of pregnant women at a higher risk of developing GDM or later diabetes.