1.Bioinformatics Analysis and Experimental Validation of the Mechanism of Leigongteng (Tripterygium wilfordii Hook. f.) in Treating Rheumatoid Arthritis
Yuzheng YANG ; Xiaoling YAO ; Feng LUO ; Wukai MA
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(7):724-733
ObjectiveTo explore the potential mechanisms of Leigongteng (Tripterygium wilfordii Hook. f.) in treating rheumatoid arthritis (RA) using bioinformatics analysis and experimental validation. MethodsBioinformatics approaches, including the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO), the traditional Chinese medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform (TCMSP), Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment, protein-protein interaction (PPI) network analysis, molecular docking, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and immune infiltration analysis, were used to predict the key active components of Leigongteng and its target genes for RA treatment. Experimental validation was conducted using human rheumatoid arthritis fibroblast-like synoviocytes (HFLS-RA) in vitro, with methotrexate as the positive control. A scratch assay was performed to assess cell migration after 24 hours of culture. Western blotting was used to detect protein expression levels, qPCR was used to measure target gene mRNA levels, and ELISA was conducted to evaluate inflammatory cytokine levels, including interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α). ResultsA total of 117 target genes of Leigongteng were identified and intersected with RA-related genes, yielding 55 key genes. Further screening identified three core genes: PTGS2, CXCR4, and TIMP1. Based on the correspondence between potential drug targets and key components, triptolide and nobiletin were identified as the primary active compounds. Molecular docking results showed that both triptolide and nobiletin had binding energies lower than -5 kcal/mol with their respective target proteins, indicating strong interactions. In vitro experiments demonstrated that, compared with the blank control group, the triptolide, nobiletin, and positive control groups exhibited reduced cell migration rates after 24 hours of culture (P<0.01). The expression levels of PTGS2 and CXCR4 (both mRNA and protein) were significantly downregulated, while TIMP1 expression was upregulated. Levels of IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α decreased, whereas IL-10 levels increased (P<0.01). Compared with the positive control group, the triptolide and nobiletin groups showed increased cell migration rates, upregulated PTGS2 and CXCR4 expression (mRNA and protein), downregulated TIMP1 expression (mRNA and protein), increased IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α levels, and decreased IL-10 levels (P<0.05 or P<0.01). ConclusionThe key active components of Leigongteng, triptolide and nobiletin, may alleviate RA by inhibiting PTGS2 and CXCR4 while promoting TIMP1 expression, thereby suppressing inflammatory responses.
2.Effects of wearable electronic device-based interventions on physical activity and sedentary behavior in healthy adolescents:a meta-analysis
Yida WANG ; Jun LIU ; Xiaoling WANG ; Liyan WANG ; Chengru YANG ; Xuexiao ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(8):1693-1704
OBJECTIVE:Although wearable electronic devices have demonstrated potential utility as intervention tools to enhance physical activity,comprehensive evaluations of their specific effects on the healthy adolescent population remain scarce.Consequently,this article aims to systematically explore and summarize the impact of interventions based on wearable electronic devices on the physical activity and sedentary behavior of healthy adolescents,thereby providing more precise and reliable evidence-based support for public health practices. METHODS:Randomized controlled trials assessing the effects of wearable electronic device-based interventions on the physical activity and sedentary behavior of healthy adolescents were retrieved from databases including Web of Science,PubMed,Scopus,The Cochrane Library,and EBSCO.Meta-analysis was conducted using Review Manager 5.4 and Stata 17,evaluating the effects of interventions on physical activity and sedentary behavior through the standardized mean difference.To ensure the robustness of the research findings,a Leave-One-Out sensitivity analysis was conducted,and subgroup analyses were carried out to explore the potential influence of different factors on the results.The review protocol was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews(CRD42023406645). RESULTS:(1)Twelve publications were ultimately included,consisting of three randomized controlled trials and nine cluster-randomized controlled trials,involving a total of 4 933 healthy adolescents.(2)Meta-analysis results revealed that interventions based on wearable electronic devices had a positive effect on moderate to vigorous physical activity[standardized mean difference(SMD)=0.10;95%confidence interval(CI):0.04 to 0.17;P<0.05).However,the interventions did not significantly improve low-intensity physical activity(SMD=-0.15;95%CI:-0.32 to 0.02;P>0.05),daily step count(SMD=0.13;95%CI:-0.65 to 0.91;P>0.05),and sedentary behavior(SMD=0.00;95%CI:-0.09 to 0.09;P>0.05).(3)Subgroup analyses indicated that short-term interventions(≤12 weeks)(SMD=0.11;95%CI:0.03 to 0.18;P=0.008),studies using pedometers worn at the waist or hip(SMD=0.10;95%CI:0.04 to 0.17;P=0.002),and experiments registered at clinical trial centers(SMD=0.11;95%CI:0.04 to 0.17;P=0.001)had a more significant effect on enhancing daily moderate to vigorous physical activity. CONCLUSION:The current evidence suggests that interventions based on wearable electronic devices possess certain advantages in enhancing the daily moderate-to-vigorous physical activity of healthy adolescents.It is recommended that interventions not exceeding 12 weeks and utilizing pedometers positioned at the waist or hip may yield more favorable results.However,the effects of these interventions on daily step count,low-intensity physical activity,and sedentary behavior exhibit some limitations.Consequently,future investigations necessitate higher-quality,larger-scale randomized controlled trials for further validation.
3.Association between ambient ozone exposure during pregnancy and risk of preterm birth in Guangdong Province
Peng HU ; Shanshan RAN ; Qingmei LIN ; Yin YANG ; Zilong ZHANG ; Xiaoling GUO ; Yonggui GAO ; Jinde ZHAO ; Hualiang LIN
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2025;42(4):379-384
Background Air pollution exposure has a significant impact on maternal and child health. However, the research on the association between ambient ozone (O3) exposure during pregnancy and the risk of premature birth in newborns is limited, and the conclusions are inconsistent. Objective To investigate the association of ambient O3 exposure during pregnancy with the risk of preterm birth in Guangdong Province. Methods Data of pregnant women in Guangzhou from 2013 to 2019 and Foshan from 2018 to 2023 were collected, and O3 concentrations during different trimesters were assessed according to maternal residential addresses. Bilinear interpolation was used to evaluate the concentrations of air pollution. A cohort study design was adopted in our study. Restricted cubic spline curves were used to evaluate the exposure-response relationship between O3 exposure and preterm birth risk and explore potential exposure threshold of O3. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of O3 exposure with preterm birth. Results A total of 702 924 pregnant women were included in this study, of whom 43 051 (6.12%) were preterm. The average O3 exposure concentrations of pregnant women during the first, second, third, and whole trimesters were 95.51, 97.51, 100.60, and 97.87 μg·m−3, respectively. We observed J-shaped associations between O3 exposure and preterm birth risk during the second, third, and whole trimesters of pregnancy using restricted cubic spline curves. This study found that there were threshold concentrations between O3 exposure and preterm birth risk during different gestational periods, and the threshold concentrations in the first, second, third, and whole trimesters were 112.32, 99.83, 111.74, and 112.46 μg·m−3, respectively. During the second, third, and whole trimesters of pregnancy, after adjusting for maternal age, baby sex, pre-pregnancy body mass index, mode of delivery, baby birth weight, gestational diabetes, and gestational hypertension, the odds ratios (OR) of preterm birth were 1.02 (95%CI: 1.01, 1.04), 1.02 (95%CI: 1.00, 1.03), and 1.17 (95%CI: 1.13, 1.21) for each 10 μg·m−3 increase in O3 concentration above the O3 threshold. No significant association was found between O3 exposure and the risk of preterm birth during the first trimester. Conclusion There is a nonlinear association between the risk of preterm birth and O3 exposure during pregnancy, and higher concentrations of O3 exposure during pregnancy are associated with the risk of preterm birth. Above the O3 threshold concentration during pregnancy, especially during the second, third, and whole trimesters, the risk of preterm birth elevates with the increase of O3 exposure concentrations.
4.Pharmaceutical care for a ulcerative colitis and ankylosing spondylitis patient who developed pustular psoriasis induced by infliximab
Xiaoling TUO ; Zhao WANG ; Shijie JU ; Shaoqi YANG ; Lijuan MA
China Pharmacy 2025;36(18):2312-2316
OBJECTIVE To provide a reference for pharmaceutical care in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and ankylosing spondylitis (AS) who developed pustular psoriasis induced by infliximab. METHODS Clinical pharmacists participated in the pharmaceutical care process of a patient with UC and AS who developed pustular psoriasis after using infliximab. The clinical pharmacists determined, using Naranjo’s Scale, that the correlation between the patient’s pustular psoriasis and infliximab was “likely”. Regarding the patient’s development of pustular psoriasis after using infliximab, the clinical pharmacists recommended discontinuing infliximab and switching to Upadacitinib extended-release tablets. For the patient’s skin allergic reaction after using upadacitinib, the clinical pharmacists advised continuing the use of upadacitinib and closely monitoring any potential adverse reactions during the treatment period. RESULTS The clinicians adopted the clinical pharmacists’ recommendation. Following the treatment, the patient’s symptoms were significantly alleviated, and the patient was discharged with medication. The follow-up after discharge showed that the treatment was effective and well-tolerated. CONCLUSIONS The clinical pharmacists analyzed the causal relationship between infliximab and pustular psoriasis. Through pharmaceutical care measures such as dynamic monitoring of skin lesions, evaluation of treatment responses, and optimization of drug regimens, they assisted the physicians in formulating an individualized medication plan, ensuring the safety and efficacy of the patient’s medication use.
5.Analysis of the burden and trends of oral disorders among the elderly in China from 1990 to 2021
LI Zhixiao ; LOU Ting ; BAI Xiaoling ; CHEN Su ; GUO Shihong ; YANG Zengzhen ; XIAO Changliang
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2025;33(11):954-967
Objective:
To analyze the disease burden and trends of oral diseases among China’s elderly population (1990-2021) and provide evidence for developing targeted intervention strategies
Methods :
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we extracted prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for oral conditions (permanent dental caries, edentulism, periodontal diseases, and other oral disorders) in individuals aged ≥60 years in China. Due to data limitations, other oral diseases only included DALYs and prevalence. Age-standardized rates (ASR)—including age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR)--were calculated. Trends were assessed via Joinpoint regression using average annual percentage change (AAPC), stratified by sex and age groups (60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85-89, 90-94, 95+ years).
Results:
From 1990 to 2021, China’s elderly population exhibited distinct trends in oral disease burden. Overall oral diseases showed declining ASDR and ASPR, yet ASIR slightly increased. Permanent dental caries demonstrated significant rises across ASDR, ASIR, and ASPR. Edentulism showed declining ASDR and ASPR alongside stable ASIR. 95+ age group saw rising rates. Periodontal diseases remained largely stable in ASDR and ASPR but experienced a slight ASIR decline. Other oral disorders showed mild ASDR decline and stable ASPR. Notably, sex and age disparities persisted. Women consistently bore higher burdens for overall oral diseases, caries, edentulism, and other oral diseases but lower periodontal disease rates compared to men. 85-89, 90-95, 95+ age group faced rising DALYs and prevalence for overall oral diseases, while all other age groups demonstrated declining trends in both DALYs and prevalence; for permanent caries, the 60-64 age group showed the largest increases in DALY rate, incidence, and prevalence; edentulism demonstrated the most pronounced and sustained rises in DALY rate and prevalence in the 95+ group, while declining most rapidly in the 60-64 age group; for periodontal disease, both DALY rates and prevalence declined in the 90-94 and 95+ age groups, but increased across all measures (DALY rate, incidence, and prevalence) in the 70-74 and 75-79 age group; other oral conditions exhibited relatively stable burden distributions or minor changes, with no significant age-specific shifting trends observed.
Conclusion
From 1990 to 2021, China’s elderly oral disease burden declined overall, but caries surged, edentulism improved, periodontal diseases stabilized, and other oral diseases slightly declined. Prioritizing older women and the adults aged 85+ is critical to addressing evolving oral health needs.
6.Temporal trend in mortality due to congenital heart disease in China from 2008 to 2021.
Youping TIAN ; Xiaojing HU ; Qing GU ; Miao YANG ; Pin JIA ; Xiaojing MA ; Xiaoling GE ; Quming ZHAO ; Fang LIU ; Ming YE ; Weili YAN ; Guoying HUANG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(6):693-701
BACKGROUND:
Congenital heart disease (CHD) is a leading cause of birth defect-related mortality. However, more recent CHD mortality data for China are lacking. Additionally, limited studies have evaluated sex, rural-urban, and region-specific disparities of CHD mortality in China.
METHODS:
We designed a population-based study using data from the Dataset of National Mortality Surveillance in China between 2008 and 2021. We calculated age-adjusted CHD mortality using the sixth census data of China in 2010 as the standard population. We assessed the temporal trends in CHD mortality by age, sex, area, and region from 2008 to 2021 using the joinpoint regression model.
RESULTS:
From 2008 to 2021, 33,534 deaths were attributed to CHD. The period witnessed a two-fold decrease in the age-adjusted CHD mortality from 1.61 to 0.76 per 100,000 persons (average annual percent change [AAPC] = -5.90%). Females tended to have lower age-adjusted CHD mortality than males, but with a similar decline rate from 2008 to 2021 (females: AAPC = -6.15%; males: AAPC = -5.84%). Similar AAPC values were observed among people living in urban (AAPC = -6.64%) and rural (AAPC = -6.12%) areas. Eastern regions experienced a more pronounced decrease in the age-adjusted CHD mortality (AAPC = -7.86%) than central (AAPC = -5.83%) and western regions (AAPC = -3.71%) between 2008 and 2021. Approximately half of the deaths (46.19%) due to CHD occurred during infancy. The CHD mortality rates in 2021 were lower than those in 2008 for people aged 0-39 years, with the largest decrease observed among children aged 1-4 years (AAPC = -8.26%), followed by infants (AAPC = -7.01%).
CONCLUSIONS
CHD mortality in China has dramatically decreased from 2008 to 2021. The slower decrease in CHD mortality in the central and western regions than in the eastern regions suggested that public health policymakers should pay more attention to health resources and health education for central and western regions.
Humans
;
Heart Defects, Congenital/mortality*
;
Male
;
Female
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Infant
;
Child, Preschool
;
Adult
;
Child
;
Adolescent
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Middle Aged
;
Young Adult
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Aged
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Rural Population
7.Safety and efficacy of Angong Niuhuang Pills in patients with moderate-to-severe acute ischemic stroke (ANGONG TRIAL): A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled pilot clinical trial.
Shengde LI ; Anxin WANG ; Lin SHI ; Qin LIU ; Xiaoling GUO ; Kun LIU ; Xiaoli WANG ; Jie LI ; Jianming ZHU ; Qiuyi WU ; Qingcheng YANG ; Xianbo ZHUANG ; Hui YOU ; Feng FENG ; Yishan LUO ; Huiling LI ; Jun NI ; Bin PENG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(5):579-588
BACKGROUND:
Preclinical studies have indicated that Angong Niuhuang Pills (ANP) reduce cerebral infarct and edema volumes. This study aimed to investigate whether ANP safely reduces cerebral infarct and edema volumes in patients with moderate to severe acute ischemic stroke.
METHODS:
This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pilot trial included patients with acute ischemic stroke with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores ranging from 10 to 20 in 17 centers in China between April 2021 and July 2022. Patients were allocated within 36 h after onset via block randomization to receive ANP or placebo (3 g/day for 5 days). The primary outcomes were changes in cerebral infarct and edema volumes after 14 days of treatment. The primary safety outcome was severe adverse events (SAEs) for 90 days.
RESULTS:
There were 57 and 60 patients finally included in the ANP and placebo groups, respectively for modified intention-to-treat analysis. The median age was 66.0 years, and the median NIHSS score at baseline was 12.0. The changes in cerebral infarct volume at day 14 were 0.3 mL and 0.4 mL in the ANP and placebo groups, respectively (median difference: -7.1 mL; interquartile range [IQR]: -18.3 to 2.3 mL, P = 0.30). The changes in cerebral edema volume of the ANP and placebo groups on day 14 were 11.4 mL and 4.0 mL, respectively ( median difference: 3.0 mL, IQR: -1.3 to 9.9 mL, P = 0.15). The rates of SAE within 90 days were similar in the ANP (3/57, 5%) and placebo (7/60, 12%) groups ( P = 0.36). Changes in serum mercury and arsenic concentrations were comparable. In patients with large artery atherosclerosis, ANP reduced the cerebral infarct volume at 14 days (median difference: -12.3 mL; IQR: -27.7 to -0.3 mL, P = 0.03).
CONCLUSIONS:
ANP showed a similar safety profile to placebo and non-significant tendency to reduce cerebral infarct volume in patients with moderate-to-severe stroke. Further studies are warranted to assess the efficacy of ANP in reducing cerebral infarcts and improving clinical prognosis.
TRAIL REGISTRATION
Clinicaltrials.gov , No. NCT04475328.
Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Double-Blind Method
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects*
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Ischemic Stroke/drug therapy*
;
Pilot Projects
;
Stroke/drug therapy*
;
Treatment Outcome
8.Current status of generalized pustular psoriasis: Findings from a multicenter hospital-based survey of 127 Chinese patients.
Haimeng WANG ; Jiaming XU ; Xiaoling YU ; Siyu HAO ; Xueqin CHEN ; Bin PENG ; Xiaona LI ; Ping WANG ; Chaoyang MIAO ; Jinzhu GUO ; Qingjie HU ; Zhonglan SU ; Sheng WANG ; Chen YU ; Qingmiao SUN ; Minkuo ZHANG ; Bin YANG ; Yuzhen LI ; Zhiqiang SONG ; Songmei GENG ; Aijun CHEN ; Zigang XU ; Chunlei ZHANG ; Qianjin LU ; Yan LU ; Xian JIANG ; Gang WANG ; Hong FANG ; Qing SUN ; Jie LIU ; Hongzhong JIN
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(8):953-961
BACKGROUND:
Generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP), a rare and recurrent autoinflammatory disease, imposes a substantial burden on patients and society. Awareness of GPP in China remains limited.
METHODS:
This cross-sectional survey, conducted between September 2021 and May 2023 across 14 hospitals in China, included GPP patients of all ages and disease phases. Data collected encompassed demographics, clinical characteristics, economic impact, disease severity, quality of life, and treatment-related complications. Risk factors for GPP recurrence were analyzed.
RESULTS:
Among 127 patients (female/male ratio = 1.35:1), the mean age of disease onset was 25 years (1st quartile [Q1]-3rd quartile [Q3]: 11-44 years); 29.2% had experienced GPP for more than 10 years. Recurrence occurred in 75.6% of patients, and nearly half reported no identifiable triggers. Younger age at disease onset ( P = 0.021) and transitioning to plaque psoriasis ( P = 0.022) were associated with higher recurrence rates. The median diagnostic delay was 8 months (Q1-Q3: 2-41 months), and 32.3% of patients reported misdiagnoses. Comorbidities were present in 53.5% of patients, whereas 51.1% experienced systemic complications during treatment. Depression and anxiety affected 84.5% and 95.6% of patients, respectively. During GPP flares, the median Dermatology Life Quality Index score was 19.0 (Q1-Q3: 13.0-23.5). This score showed significant differences between patients with and without systemic symptoms; it demonstrated correlations with both depression and anxiety scores. Treatment costs caused financial hardship in 55.9% of patients, underscoring the burden associated with GPP.
CONCLUSIONS
The substantial disease and economic burdens among Chinese GPP patients warrant increased attention. Patients with early onset disease and those transitioning to plaque psoriasis require targeted interventions to mitigate the high recurrence risk.
Humans
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Male
;
Female
;
Psoriasis/pathology*
;
Adult
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Adolescent
;
Child
;
Young Adult
;
Quality of Life
;
Middle Aged
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Recurrence
;
Risk Factors
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
;
East Asian People
9.Comparison of glucose fluctuation between metformin combined with acarbose or sitagliptin in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes: A multicenter, randomized, active-controlled, open-label, parallel design clinical trial.
Xiaoling CAI ; Suiyuan HU ; Chu LIN ; Jing WU ; Junfen WANG ; Zhufeng WANG ; Xiaomei ZHANG ; Xirui WANG ; Fengmei XU ; Ling CHEN ; Wenjia YANG ; Lin NIE ; Linong JI
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(9):1116-1125
BACKGROUND:
Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors are both hypoglycemia agents that specifically impact on postprandial hyperglycemia. We compared the effects of acarbose and sitagliptin add on to metformin on time in range (TIR) and glycemic variability (GV) in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus through continuous glucose monitoring (CGM).
METHODS:
This study was a randomized, open-label, active-con-trolled, parallel-group trial conducted at 15 centers in China from January 2020 to August 2022. We recruited patients with type 2 diabetes aged 18-65 years with body mass index (BMI) within 19-40 kg/m 2 and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) between 6.5% and 9.0%. Eligible patients were randomized to receive either metformin combined with acarbose 100 mg three times daily or metformin combined with sitagliptin 100 mg once daily for 28 days. After the first 14-day treatment period, patients wore CGM and entered another 14-day treatment period. The primary outcome was the level of TIR after treatment between groups. We also performed time series decomposition, dimensionality reduction, and clustering using the CGM data.
RESULTS:
A total of 701 participants received either acarbose or sitagliptin treatment in combination with metformin. There was no statistically significant difference in TIR between the two groups. Time below range (TBR) and coefficient of variation (CV) levels in acarbose users were significantly lower than those in sitagliptin users. Median (25th percentile, 75th percentile) of TBR below target level <3.9 mmol/L (TBR 3.9 ): Acarbose: 0.45% (0, 2.13%) vs . Sitagliptin: 0.78% (0, 3.12%), P = 0.042; Median (25th percentile, 75th percentile) of TBR below target level <3.0 mmol/L (TBR 3.0 ): Acarbose: 0 (0, 0.22%) vs . Sitagliptin: 0 (0, 0.63%), P = 0.033; CV: Acarbose: 22.44 ± 5.08% vs . Sitagliptin: 23.96 ± 5.19%, P <0.001. By using time series analysis and clustering, we distinguished three groups of patients with representative metabolism characteristics, especially in GV (group with small wave, moderate wave and big wave). No significant difference was found in the complexity of glucose time series index (CGI) between acarbose users and sitagliptin users. By using time series analysis and clustering, we distinguished three groups of patients with representative metabolism characteristics, especially in GV.
CONCLUSIONS:
Acarbose had slight advantages over sitagliptin in improving GV and reducing the risk of hypoglycemia. Time series analysis of CGM data may predict GV and the risk of hypoglycemia.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
Chinese Clinical Trial Registry: ChiCTR2000039424.
Humans
;
Metformin/therapeutic use*
;
Sitagliptin Phosphate/therapeutic use*
;
Acarbose/therapeutic use*
;
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood*
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Middle Aged
;
Male
;
Female
;
Adult
;
Blood Glucose/drug effects*
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Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use*
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Aged
;
Glycated Hemoglobin/metabolism*
;
Adolescent
;
Young Adult
;
China
;
East Asian People
10.Nomogram prediction model for factors associated with vascular plaques in a physical examination population.
Xiaoling ZHU ; Lei YAN ; Li TANG ; Jiangang WANG ; Yazhang GUO ; Pingting YANG
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(7):1167-1178
OBJECTIVES:
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) poses a major threat to global health. Evaluating atherosclerosis in asymptomatic individuals can help identify those at high risk of CVD. This study aims to establish an individualized nomogram prediction model to estimate the risk of vascular plaque formation in asymptomatic individuals.
METHODS:
A total of 5 655 participants who underwent CVD screening at the Health Management Center of The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, between January 2022 and June 2024 we retrospectively enrolled. Using simple random sampling, participants were divided into a training set (n=4 524) and a validation set (n=1 131) in an 8꞉2 ratio. Demographic and clinical data were collected and compared between groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent factors associated with vascular plaques and to construct a nomogram prediction model. The predictive performance and clinical utility of the model were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
RESULTS:
The mean age of participants was 52 years old. There were 3 400 males (60.12%). The overall detection rate of vascular plaque in the screening population was 49.87% (2 820/5 655). No statistically significant differences were observed in clinical indicators between the training and validation sets (all P>0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis identified age, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), lipoprotein(a), male sex, smoking history, hypertension history, and diabetes history as independent risk factors for vascular plaque in asymptomatic individuals (all P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model for predicting vascular plaque risk were 0.778 (95% CI 0.765 to 0.791, P<0.001) in the training set and 0.760 (95% CI 0.732 to 0.787, P<0.001) in the validation set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated good model calibration (training set: P=0.628; validation set: P=0.561). The calibration curve plotted using the Bootstrap method demonstrated good agreement between predicted probabilities and actual probabilities. DCA showed that the nomogram provided a clinical net benefit for predicting vascular plaque risk when the threshold probability ranged from 0.02 to 0.99.
CONCLUSIONS
The nomogram prediction model for vascular plaque risk, constructed using readily available and cost-effective physical examination indicators, exhibited good predictive performance. This model can assist in the early identification and intervention of asymptomatic individuals at high risk for cardiovascular disease.
Humans
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Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Female
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Nomograms
;
Retrospective Studies
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Risk Factors
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Plaque, Atherosclerotic/diagnosis*
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Aged
;
Adult
;
Physical Examination
;
Logistic Models
;
Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology*
;
ROC Curve


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