1.Comparative study of SARIMA and seasonal index model in predicting non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning
Wantong HAN ; Yongqiang ZHANG ; Shichang DU ; Wei WANG ; Kai QU ; Xin HE ; Cixian XU ; Xiumei SUN ; Qiran SUN ; Jinyao ZHANG ; Fan BU ; Xingui SUN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(6):12-16
Objective To establish a prediction model for the occurrence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing, and to provide scientific basis and theoretical support for the prevention and warning of poisoning events. Methods Based on the monitoring data of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing from 2016 to 2024, the seasonal ARIMA model and seasonal index model were established to analyze the data and predict the occurrence of events. Results Between 2016 and 2024, a total of 436 cases of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning were reported in Beijing, showing a downward trend. The established SARIMA model and seasonal index model were SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0) 12, Yt = (-0.0339t+5.8863) × St, and the average relative errors were 65.42% and 29.19%, respectively. In terms of months, the SARIMA model had better predictive performance during April and summer (June to August), while the seasonal index model was superior in other months. By combining the two models, the predicted number of events in 2025 was as follows: 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 5, 2, 7, 1, 1, 1, and 2. Conclusion The seasonal index model has the best prediction effect on the non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing throughout the year, and the number of summer events predicted by SARIMA model is closer to the actual values. The two models can be combined to predict the trend of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning, which provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of carbon monoxide poisoning in the future.
2.Study on characteristic chromatogram of Chaenomeles sinensis and content determination of 3 flavones
Tianmi ZHU ; Shuhe CHEN ; Jingsong YAN ; Xingui WANG ; Yuqing DUAN ; Xiaoyi YANG
China Pharmacy 2024;35(2):150-154
OBJECTIVE To establish the characteristic chromatogram of Chaenomeles sinensis, determine the contents of rutin, hyperin and quercitrin, and to identify C. sinensis and C. speciosa. METHODS HPLC method was performed on Agilent 5 TC-C18 column, with acetonitrile-0.2% formic acid solution as the mobile phase for gradient elution, at the flow rate of 1.0 mL/min. The column temperature was 30 ℃ . The detection wavelength was 330 nm in characteristic chromatogram and 350 nm in content determination. The characteristic chromatogram of C. sinensis was established and similarity was evaluated by the Similarity Evaluation System for Chromatographic Fingerprint of TCM (2012 edition). Hierarchical cluster analysis of 15 batches of C. sinensis (S1-S15) was performed by using SPSS 23.0 software. The contents of 3 flavones in 15 batches of C. sinensis and 7 batches of C. speciosa (S16-S22) were determined, while their characteristic chromatograms were compared. RESULTS The similarities of the characteristic chromatogram for 15 batches of C. sinensis ranged from 0.783 to 0.969, and 11 characteristic peaks were confirmed. Four constituents were identified as chlorogenic acid, rutin, hyperin and quercitrin. The medicinal materials in 15 batches of C. sinensis could be divided into 2 categories: S5-S8 were one category, and the others belonged to one category. The characteristic chromatogram of C. sinensis was obviously different from C. speciosa. The contents of rutin, hyperin and quercitrin in 15 batches of C. sinensis were 48.99-294.45, 3.49-102.55, 31.98-149.49 μg/g, respectively. The content of rutin in C. speciosa was lower than that in C. sinensis. None of hyperin (except for S20) and quercitrin were detected in C. speciosa. CONCLUSIONS The characteristic chromatogram and the method for content determination of 3 flavones in C. sinensis are established successfully and can be used for the quality control of C. sinensis and its identification from C. speciosa.
3.Temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Beijing, 2008-2023
Yongqiang ZHANG ; Wei WANG ; Xitai LI ; Shichang DU ; Cixian XU ; Hong QIAO ; Xingui SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2024;45(10):1383-1389
Objective:To analyze the temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing and provide reference evidence in HFMD prevention and control.Methods:The monthly incidence data of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2023 were collected from Notifiable Disease Management Information System of the Chinese Information System of Disease Control and Prevention, and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD were analyzed by the methods of time series seasonal decomposition graph, concentration degree, and circular distribution.The WPS office software 2019 was used to clean the data, Python software 3.12 was used to analyze and make statistical charts.Results:The monthly incidence fluctuation of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2015 was higher than that from 2016 to 2022. From 2016 to 2022, the fluctuation range of monthly incidence showed a gradually decreasing trend.From 2008 to 2015, the concentration ( M) was 0.58, indicating a relatively strong seasonality; the mean angle ( α) calculated by the circular distribution method was 174.95°, and the mean angle standard deviation ( s) was 60.43°. The annual incidence peak occurred on June 27, and the incidence peak period was from April 27 to August 27. From 2016 to 2019 and 2023, the M was 0.57, indicating a relatively strong seasonality. The α was 228.05°, and s was 61.44°. The annual incidence peak occurred on August 20, and the incidence peak period was from June 18 to October 21. From 2020 to 2022, the M was 0.42, indicating a seasonality, the α was 238.27° and s was 76.35°. The annual incidence peak occurred on July 15, and the incidence peak period was from June 14 to November 14. The α of 2008-2015, 2016-2019 and 2023, and 2020-2022 were tested by the Watson-Williams method and the difference was statistically significant ( F=33 443.09, P<0.001). In 2023, the M was 0.77, indicating a strong seasonality. The incidence peak occurred on September 16, and the incidence peak period was from August 5 to October 28. Conclusions:The seasonality of HFMD in Beijing was obvious from 2008 to 2023, and the incidence peak day and peak period overall had rearward shifts. It is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive analysis of the distribution characteristics at different dimensions and the comprehensive prevention and control in key areas, places, and populations during the peak incidence period.
4.Optimization of the processing of vinegar-Corni Fructus through Box-Behnken design combined with entropy-weight method
Huan GAO ; Shuhe CHEN ; Jingsong YAN ; Shenrong GAO ; Yuting XU ; Xingui WANG
International Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;46(10):1343-1348
Objective:To optimize the processing technology of vinegar-Corni Fructus using Box Behnken design and entropy weight method.Methods:The optimal processing parameters of vinegar-Corni Fructus were optimized by Box-Behnken design. 5-Hydroxymethylfurfural, Nuxaside, Monosanthin, and appearance character were used as comprehensive evaluation indexes. The entropy weight method was used to calculate the weights of each index, taking Design Expert 12.0 for data analysis.Results:The optimal process for vinegar-Corni Fructus as follow: The ratio of excipients was 15%, the simmering time was 2 h, and the steaming time was 8 h.Conclusion:The optimal vinegar-Corni Fructus processing is stable and feasible, which can be used for the production of processed prescriptions.
5.Relationship of galectin-3 and PLR with postoperative ventricular remodeling in patients over 75 years old with AMI
Xingui ZHANG ; Changhong WANG ; Jin WANG
Chinese Journal of Geriatric Heart Brain and Vessel Diseases 2024;26(5):504-507
Objective To investigate the changes in peripheral blood galectin-3(Gal-3)and platelet to lymphocyte ratio(PLR)and their relationship with ventricular remodeling in elderly patients over 75 years old with acute myocardial infarction(AMI)after PCI.Methods A total of 86 AMI patients(aged ≥75 years)undergoing elective PCI in our hospital from March 2021 to September 2023 were recruited in this study.According to ventricular remodeling occurred or not after PCI,they were divided into ventricular remodeling group(39 cases)and non-ventricular remodeling group(47 cases).Gal-3 level and PLR were detected and calculated before and in 3 and 5 d after PCI,and the results were compared between the two groups.Multivariate logistic regression anal-ysis was used to analyze the relationship of Gal-3 and PLR with ventricular remodeling in elderly AMI patients after PCI,and ROC curve was plotted to study the predictive value of the two indi-cators for ventricular remodeling.Results In the elderly AMI patients,the levels of Gal-3 and PLR were decreased in 3 and 5 d after PCI than before operation,and the levels at 5 d were lower than those of 3 d after operation(P<0.05).The ventricular remodeling group had obviously high-er levels of Gal-3 and PLR in peripheral blood than the non-ventricular remodeling group before and in 3 and 5 d after PCI(P<0.05,P<0.01).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Gal-3(OR=1.986,95%CI:1.017-2.875,P=0.007)and PLR(OR=1.774,95%CI:1.132-2.428,P=0.014)were risk factors for ventricular remodeling in AMI patients after PCI.ROC curve indicated that the AUC value of combined Gal-3 and PLR before PCI in predicting ventricu-lar remodeling in the AMI patients after PCI was 0.882(95%CI:0.824-0.941),which was supe-rior to the value of the two indicator alone(P<0.05).Conclusion The levels of Gal-3 and PLR in peripheral blood are lower in the elderly AMI patients after PCI than before PCI,and the two in-dicators are risk factors for ventricular remodeling in these patients after PCI.Combined detection of them has high predictive value for ventricular remodeling in the patients.
6.Depression and Anxiety During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Epidemiology, Mechanism, and Treatment.
Chunyan ZHU ; Ting ZHANG ; Qianqian LI ; Xingui CHEN ; Kai WANG
Neuroscience Bulletin 2023;39(4):675-684
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had an adverse impact on the physical and mental health of the public worldwide. In addition to illness in patients with COVID-19, isolated people and the general population have experienced mental health problems due to social distancing policies, mandatory lockdown, and other psychosocial factors, and the prevalence of depression and anxiety significantly increased during the pandemic. The purpose of this review is to elucidate the epidemiology, contributing factors, and pathogenesis of depression and anxiety. during the pandemic. These findings indicate that physicians and psychiatrists should pay more attention to and identify those with a high risk for mental problems, such as females, younger people, unmarried people, and those with a low educational level. In addition, researchers should focus on identifying the neural and neuroimmune mechanisms involved in depression and anxiety, and assess the intestinal microbiome to identify effective biomarkers. We also provide an overview of various intervention methods, including pharmacological treatment, psychological therapy, and physiotherapy, to provide a reference for different populations to guide the development of optimized intervention methods.
Female
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Humans
;
COVID-19/epidemiology*
;
Pandemics
;
Depression/therapy*
;
SARS-CoV-2
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Communicable Disease Control
;
Anxiety/psychology*
7.Epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in schools of Beijing from 2010 to 2020
Chinese Journal of School Health 2022;43(4):622-626
Objective:
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases at schools in Beijing from 2010 to 2020, providing evidence for the prevention and control strategies in school infectious diseases.
Methods:
Information on public health emergencies was collected from Public Health Emergency Reporting System (the subsystem of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System) reported from 2010 to 2020.
Results:
A total of 146 public health emergencies and 138 public health emergencies of infectious diseases in schools were reported in Beijing from 2010 to 2020, including 4 291 cases with the rate of 2.32% and affected or exposed 185 179 cases. There were significant difference in mean annual incidence rates( χ 2=782.46, P <0.01). There were 71 events of respiratory infectious diseases and 66 events of intestinal infectious diseases, accounting for 51.45% and 47.83%, respectively. The annual incidence peaks of public health emergencies of infectious diseases were during March-June and October-December. The events mainly occurred in kindergartens and primary schools among each stage of school periods with 51 and 46 incidences respectively, which accounted for 70.29% of the total number of public health emergencies in schools. The leading infectious diseases among all the reported events in kindergartens and primary schools were hand foot mouth disease and varicella. Varicella and other infectious diarrhoeal diseases were at the top lists of infectious disease outbreaks at the secondary and university stages.
Conclusion
Infectious diseases events were the major type of public health emergencies at schools in Beijing from 2010 to 2020. Respiratory infectious diseases and intestinal infectious diseases were the keys to the prevention and control of public health emergencies related to school. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance for public health emergencies especially for symptom surveillance. The prevention and control measures should be taken according to the characteristics of different age groups. At the same time, the prevention and control of school infectious diseases and the drill of the plan during peak periods need to be particularly strengthened.
8.Post-marketing immunogenicity and safety of domestic 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine: a multicenter study
Min ZHANG ; Ruizhi ZHANG ; Xingui YE ; Junshi ZHAO ; Dongjuan ZHANG ; Fang LAN ; Long YAN ; Haiyan ZHU ; Li XIAO ; Zhangbin TANG ; Juan CHEN ; Junfeng WANG ; Haiping CHEN ; Yuan YANG ; Shengyi WANG ; Xuanwen SHI ; Xiaoqin LIU ; Shaoxiang LIU
Chinese Journal of Microbiology and Immunology 2022;42(11):865-870
Objective:To evaluate the post-marketing safety and immunogenicity of a 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23).Methods:From September 2020 to June 2021, a clinical trial of single-dose PPV23 was conducted in people ≥3 years old in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of Guizhou, Hunan and Fujian provinces. Blood samples were collects from the subjects before and 30 d after vaccination. ELISA was used to quantitatively detect IgG antibodies against capsular polysaccharides of 23 Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes in serum samples. The adverse events (AEs) were monitored within 7 d after vaccination. Results:A total of 409 subjects were enrolled and included in safety analysis. Except for one with antibody level inversion, the other 408 participants were included in immunogenicity analysis. The levels of antibodies against the 23 Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes were all increased after vaccination by an average of 4.24 folds. The two-fold growth rates of the antibodies ranged from 51.72% to 96.81% with a total two-fold growth rate of 78.59%. The overall rate of AEs was 27.14% (111/409). Local AEs were mainly pain, induration, redness and swollen. No serious adverse events related to vaccination occurred. Conclusions:This study preliminarily demonstrated the good immunogenicity and safety of PPV23 vaccine.
9.Design and application of a multifunctional infrared wind heating medical rewarming equipment
Shengbiao WANG ; Qian ZHOU ; Xingui DAI ; Yunfeng LI
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2021;33(5):618-620
Hypothermia can have adverse effects on various systems of trauma patients, and significantly increase the mortality. All of the current rewarming equipments are contact rewarming equipment, which have the shortcomings of single function and poor effect. The medical staff of the First People's Hospital of Chenzhou designed a multi-functional infrared heating medical rewarming equipment, and obtained the National Utility Model Patent of China (ZL 2018 2 1705172.9). By integrating the infrared heating lamp tube and the air heating device and controlling them independently, the equipment can not only treat the wound by infrared alone, but also keep the wound warm by using the air heating function at low room temperature. In addition, it can also warm the patients with hypothermia separately. The device's dual functions of promoting wound healing and rewarming by infrared therapy and wind-heating are accurate. It is easy to operate with good controllability, and contributes to individualized precision treatment, which is worthy of transformation and promotion.
10.Recent advances in mechanism and treatment of fracture-related tension blister
Xiaojun CHEN ; Junfei GUO ; Huiyang JIA ; Chen WANG ; Jialiang GUO ; Xingui WANG ; Kuo ZHAO ; Zhiyong HOU ; Yingze ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2021;37(9):848-854
The presence of tension blister often predicts severe soft tissue damage,which not only increases the risk of wound complications but also prolongs the surgical treatment time. However,the developed tension blister has been proposed as a potential decompressive approach for it may relieve the pressure of osteofascial compartment and improve the likelihood of relieving clinical symptoms,as well as avoid unnecessary surgery in cases of suspected osteofascial compartment syndrome. Recently,the osteofascial system has been increasingly recognized that associations were found between the tension blister and osteofascial self-release processing. Thus,the timing of blister occurrence and regression substantially influences physicians′ clinical decisions,making blister management as part of the treatment of fractures. In this review,the authors give an overview of the characteristics,mechanism,stress reduction effect,prevention,current treatment status and complications of the fracture-related tension blister,hoping to help orthopedic physicians understand and treat the tensile blister.


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