1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Practical exploration on the responsibilities and operation specifications of assistants in robotic radical gastrectomy
Yulong TIAN ; Yuqi SUN ; Xiaoning KANG ; Yan WANG ; Shougen CAO ; Xiaodong LIU ; Zequn LI ; Gan LIU ; Xiaojie TAN ; Cheng MENG ; Haitao JIANG ; Zhaojian NIU ; Yanbing ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2025;28(8):937-941
Robot-assisted surgery with its advantages such as three-dimensional high-definition vision, dexterous robotic arms, and tremor filtration, is increasingly being applied to complex radical gastrectomy. However, the role of the surgical assistant remains crucial during the procedure. The assistant is responsible for tasks outside the console, including adjusting robotic arms, changing instruments, exposing the surgical field, and addressing unexpected situations. The technical proficiency of the assistant and their collaboration efficiency with the primary surgeon directly impact the smoothness of surgery and patients' outcomes. With the expansion of robot-assisted surgical indications, the establishment of a standardized training system and the optimization of team collaboration models have become urgent challenges to address. This article draws on the author's practical experience as an assistant in robot-assisted gastric cancer surgeries, conducting an in-depth analysis of the responsibilities and operational skills of surgical assistants in robot-assisted procedures. The aim is to develop a relatively comprehensive set of operational guidelines for surgical assistants in robot-assisted radical gastrectomy, providing valuable references for enhancing the overall efficiency of surgical teams and improving surgical outcomes.
3.A cross-sectional study of anxiety disorders in adults in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
Xin WANG ; Lixia CHEN ; Tingting ZHANG ; Ping LYU ; Dongsheng LYU ; Zhaorui LIU ; Jie YAN ; Ruiqi WANG ; Hua DING ; Yinxia BAI ; Yueqin HUANG ; Xiaojie SUI
Chinese Mental Health Journal 2025;39(5):385-391
Objective:To describe the prevalence of anxiety disorders and its distribution in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,and to explore the relevant factors of anxiety disorders.Methods:From June 2019 to Decem-ber 2019,representative multi-stage disproportionate stratified sampling procedure was used to sample in residents aged 18 and over in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.All respondents were face-to-face interviewed by trained interviewers.Composite International Diagnostic Interview-3.0(CIDI-3.0)was used to diagnose anxiety disorders according to the criteria and definition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders,Fourth Edition(DSM-Ⅳ).Chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used for statistical anal-ysis.Results:Totally 12 315 people were interviewed in the survey.The weighted 12-mouth prevalence rate of any anxiety disorder was 4.64%,and the lifetime prevalence rate was 6.25%.The weighted 12-month prevalence rate of anxiety disorders was higher in female than that in male(5.38%vs.3.92%).The rate was higher in rural resi-dents than that in urban residents(5.67%vs.3.95%).The rate was higher in people with chronic diseases than that in people without chronic diseases(6.81%vs.2.29%).Logistic regression analysis showed that unmarried(OR=2.32,95%CI:1.31-4.10),separated/divorced(OR=2.49,95%CI:1.33-4.67),in debt(OR=1.55,95%CI:1.04-2.32),chronic disease(OR=2.22,95%CI:1.39-3.53),family history of anxiety disorders(OR=12.05,95%CI:8.78-16.53),poor sleep(OR=2.64,95%CI:1.97-3.54)were risk factors of occurrence of anxiety disorders,while junior high school(OR=0.65,95%CI:0.44-0.96)was protective factor of anxiety disor-ders.Conclusion:Adults with chronic diseases,poor sleep,unmarried or separated/divorced,family history of anxi-ety disorders,and financial debt are at higher risk groups of anxiety disorder in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Re-gion.
4.Application of a wearable visual field meter based on extended reality glasses in macular disease
Jing YUAN ; Xingchang WANG ; Xiquan SUN ; Huiguang JIAO ; Qian WANG ; Yanxia TONG ; Biyue TU ; Xixi YAN ; Zhen ZHAO ; Xiaojie OU ; Sawut ABDULLA
Chinese Journal of Experimental Ophthalmology 2025;43(11):1035-1040
Objective:To evaluate the application effect of a wearable visual field meter based on extended reality (XR) glasses for patients with macular disease.Methods:A self-controlled study was conducted.A total of 41 consecutive patients (41 eyes) with macular disease were recruited at Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from October 2022 to October 2024.All patients underwent 10-2 center visual field test using a self-developed wearable visual field meter (XRVF), and the results were compared with those obtained using a traditional Humphrey field analyzer (HFA).The comparison parameters included mean retinal sensitivity (MS), false positive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR), and testing duration.A subject satisfaction questionnaire was administered.This study followed the Declaration of Helsinki.The study protocol was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University (No.WDRY2024-K263), and all subjects signed the informed consent form.Results:The retinal sensitivity of patients measured by HFA was (23.24±3.71)dB, which was higher than (22.01±3.45)dB by XRVF, showing a statistically significant difference ( t=4.924, P=0.036).The FPR measured by HFA and XRVF were (2.39±2.51)% and (2.59±3.29)%, respectively, and the FNR were (3.49±6.05)% and (3.74±5.38)%, respectively, showing no statistically significant difference ( t=-3.624, P=0.948; t=-1.241, P=0.519).The median test duration for HFA and XRVF was 6.15 (5.78, 6.65) and 5.98 (5.71, 6.69)minutes, respectively, without statistically significant difference ( Z=-1.987, P=0.953).92.6% of the subjects thought the device was comfortable, simple and practical. Conclusions:The XRVF has good consistency with the HFA, can effectively and reliably evaluate the visual field function of patients with macular disease, and is easily accepted by patients.
5.A cross-sectional study of mood disorder in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
Peifeng YANG ; Ruiqi WANG ; Tingting ZHANG ; Hua DING ; Lixia CHEN ; Zhaorui LIU ; Ping LYU ; Dongsheng LYU ; Jie YAN ; Yinxia BAI ; Yueqin HUANG ; Xiaojie SUI
Chinese Mental Health Journal 2025;39(4):308-314
Objective:To describe the prevalence and distributions of mood disorder in Inner Mongolia Au-tonomous Region,and analyze the related risk factors.Methods:The multistage stratified sampling method with un-equal probability was used to select permanent residents aged 18 years and over in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Re-gion.The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 was used as a diagnostic tool.Mood disorders were di-agnosed according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fourth Edition(DSM-Ⅳ).Single and multivariate analyses were used to investigate the related factors of mood disorders.Results:Totally,12 315 community residents were interviewed in the survey.The weighted 12-month prevalence and lifetime prevalence of mood disorder were 5.4%and 8.7%,respectively.Weighted 12-month prevalence of depressive disorder was 4.9%,and that of bipolar disorder was 0.3%.Among all subtypes of mood disorder,the 12-month prevalence rate of major depressive disorder(3.1%)was the highest.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female,unmarried,separated or divorced,unemployment,family history,other mental disorders,sleep disorders and chronic diseases(OR=1.56,2.80,2.07,1.42,13.46,7.97,3.23,2.13)were risk factors of mood disorder,while aged 65 years and over(OR=0.44)was protective factor of mood disorders.The lifetime consultation rate in patients with mood disorders was 15.5%,the rate of psychiatric consultation was 3.7%,the rate of medication was 1.8%.Con-clusion:It indicates that female residents and people who are unmarried,separated and divorced,unemployed,with family history,suffering from other mental disorders,suffering from sleep disorders,and suffering from chronic dis-eases may be high risk groups of mood disorders,and the utilization rate of health services is rather low in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
6.Practical exploration on the responsibilities and operation specifications of assistants in robotic radical gastrectomy
Yulong TIAN ; Yuqi SUN ; Xiaoning KANG ; Yan WANG ; Shougen CAO ; Xiaodong LIU ; Zequn LI ; Gan LIU ; Xiaojie TAN ; Cheng MENG ; Haitao JIANG ; Zhaojian NIU ; Yanbing ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2025;28(8):937-941
Robot-assisted surgery with its advantages such as three-dimensional high-definition vision, dexterous robotic arms, and tremor filtration, is increasingly being applied to complex radical gastrectomy. However, the role of the surgical assistant remains crucial during the procedure. The assistant is responsible for tasks outside the console, including adjusting robotic arms, changing instruments, exposing the surgical field, and addressing unexpected situations. The technical proficiency of the assistant and their collaboration efficiency with the primary surgeon directly impact the smoothness of surgery and patients' outcomes. With the expansion of robot-assisted surgical indications, the establishment of a standardized training system and the optimization of team collaboration models have become urgent challenges to address. This article draws on the author's practical experience as an assistant in robot-assisted gastric cancer surgeries, conducting an in-depth analysis of the responsibilities and operational skills of surgical assistants in robot-assisted procedures. The aim is to develop a relatively comprehensive set of operational guidelines for surgical assistants in robot-assisted radical gastrectomy, providing valuable references for enhancing the overall efficiency of surgical teams and improving surgical outcomes.
7.Analysis of the Spatial Autocorrelation of Large Medical Equipment Allocation and Its Influencing Factors in China
Wenjie FAN ; Liwei SHI ; Yi XIA ; Xiaojie YAN ; Xingcun ZHAO ; Yue XIAO
Chinese Hospital Management 2025;45(7):70-74
Objective To study the spatial correlation characteristics of the number of large medical equipment alloca-tion in China's provinces and cities,with a view to providing a reference basis for the optimization of the allocation of large medical equipment.Methods It analyzed the spatial autocorrelation of China's large medical equipment alloca-tion and its influencing factors by using the Moran's I,grey correlation and other methods.Results The results of the spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the allocation of large medical equipment in China was positively corre-lated spatially,and the spatial agglomeration was significant(Global Moran's I index value was 0.392,P<0.05).The grey correlation of GDP,year-end resident population,geographic area,number of tertiary hospitals,number of beds in medical institutions,number of practicing(assistant)physicians,and annual discharges in each province and city were 0.913,0.919,0.745,0.883,0.907,0.929,0.880,respectively.Conclusion China's large-scale medi-cal equipment configuration of spatial autocorrelation properties,distributed in the eastern Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta region and some provinces and cities in the west of the large-scale medical equipment configura-tion level in the formation of high-value agglomeration and low-value agglomeration area respectively.At the same time,the equipment configuration has the characteristics of high-quality medical resources concentration,oriented to the needs of the masses,taking into account economic and social development,etc.It is recommended to fur-ther optimise the spatial structure of equipment allocation,incorporate the configuration of large-scale medical equip-ment into the consideration of regional health resource planning at all levels,and enhance the linkage of the equip-ment configuration planning between provinces and cities.
8.Study on safety,pharmacokinetics,and pharmacodynamics of YZJ-3058 tablets for single oral administration in healthy Chinese subjects
Yan TIAN ; Xinyi YANG ; Shuangshuang LIN ; Jinjie HE ; Jingjing WANG ; Qiong WEI ; Xingxing HUANG ; Xiaojie WU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics 2025;30(6):796-803
AIM:To evaluate the safety and toler-ability of single dose oral BTK inhibitor YZJ-3058 tablets under fasting conditions in healthy adults,as well as the pharmacokinetic and pharmacologi-cal characteristics of YZJ-3058 and its metabolites.METHODS:A total of 22 healthy subjects were en-rolled in this experiment and administered a single dose orally.They were divided into three groups:50 mg,100 mg,and 200 mg.Among them,2 sub-jects were enrolled in the 50 mg dose group,and 10 subjects were enrolled in the 100 mg and 200 mg dose groups,respectively.RESULTS:In healthy subjects,YZJ-3058 tablets were administered orally on an empty stomach at doses of 50,100,and 200 mg,with a median Tmax of 1.25 to 2.00 hours and an average Cmax of 62.85,89.44,and 99.20 ng/mL,re-spectively.The average AUC0-t was 183.87,297.72,and 453.98 h·ng-1·mL,respectively.The average AUC0-∞ was 189.30,321.33,and 551.44 h·ng-1·mL,and the median t1/2 was 1.16,5.06,and 7.97 hours,respectively.After a single oral administration of 50,100,and 200 mg YZJ-3058 tablets,the highest target occupancy rate was achieved at 4 hours.The average BTK occupancy rates at 24 hours after ad-ministration were 88.95%,96.73%,and 99.24%,re-spectively.The average BTK occupancy rates at 48 hours after administration were 75.65%,89.80%,and 96.68%,respectively.No serious adverse events or adverse events leading to withdrawal oc-curred,and all subjects had good tolerability.CON-CLUSION:YZJ-3058 tablets have good safety and tolerability for single oral administration on an empty stomach in healthy subjects within the dose range of 50-200 mg.Cmax and AUC increase with dose,with fast absorption and saturation.The ter-minal elimination rate gradually slows down with dose increase,and it has a significant and sus-tained occupying effect on BTK targets.
9.Validation of the Chinese version of the Meaning in Life in Children Questionnaire
Xiaojie SHEN ; Yanli LI ; Ruoxin LI ; Shuchang YAN
Chinese Mental Health Journal 2025;39(6):522-527
Objective:To adapt the Meaning in Life in Children Questionnaire(MIL-CQ)into a Chinese ver-sion and examine its validity and reliability.Methods:A total of 1 649 primary school students were recruited and divided into 4 samples.Sample 1(n=527)was used for item analysis and exploratory factor analysis.Sample 2(n=503)was used for confirmatory factor analysis(CFA).In sample 3(n=512),criterion validity was assessed u-sing the Chinese version of Satisfaction with Life Scale(C-SWLS),Williams Creativity Assessment Packet(CAP),Quality of Life Scale for Children and Adolescents(QLSCA),and Strength and Difficulty Questionnaire(SDQ),followed by a second confirmatory factor analysis.Sample 1 and Sample 2 were combined for internal con-sistency reliability analysis;Sample 4(n=107)was used for test-retest reliability analysis.Results:The exploratory factor analysis showed that the Chinese version of the MIL-CQ contained 18 items,including three factors(attitude,creativity,and experience).Both CFAs showed excellent fit(CFI=0.95/0.96,TLI=0.94/0.96,SRMR=0.04,RMSEA=0.04,x2/df=1.60/1.71,Ps<0.001).The total scores and subscale scores of the Chinese version of MIL-CQ were positively correlated with the scores of C-SWLS,CAP,QLSCA,and the prosocial behavior section of the SDQ(r=0.17-0.58,Ps<0.01),and negatively correlated with the difficulty section of the SDQ(r=-0.06--0.39,Ps<0.01).The Cronbach's α coefficients for the total scale and the three subscales ranged from 0.64 to 0.83,and the test-retest reliability(ICC)over a 1-month interval ranged from 0.69 to 0.77.Conclusion:The Chi-nese version of the Meaning in Life in Children Questionnaire has good validity and reliability for assessing mean-ing in life among children.
10.A cross-sectional study of anxiety disorders in adults in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
Xin WANG ; Lixia CHEN ; Tingting ZHANG ; Ping LYU ; Dongsheng LYU ; Zhaorui LIU ; Jie YAN ; Ruiqi WANG ; Hua DING ; Yinxia BAI ; Yueqin HUANG ; Xiaojie SUI
Chinese Mental Health Journal 2025;39(5):385-391
Objective:To describe the prevalence of anxiety disorders and its distribution in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,and to explore the relevant factors of anxiety disorders.Methods:From June 2019 to Decem-ber 2019,representative multi-stage disproportionate stratified sampling procedure was used to sample in residents aged 18 and over in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.All respondents were face-to-face interviewed by trained interviewers.Composite International Diagnostic Interview-3.0(CIDI-3.0)was used to diagnose anxiety disorders according to the criteria and definition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders,Fourth Edition(DSM-Ⅳ).Chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used for statistical anal-ysis.Results:Totally 12 315 people were interviewed in the survey.The weighted 12-mouth prevalence rate of any anxiety disorder was 4.64%,and the lifetime prevalence rate was 6.25%.The weighted 12-month prevalence rate of anxiety disorders was higher in female than that in male(5.38%vs.3.92%).The rate was higher in rural resi-dents than that in urban residents(5.67%vs.3.95%).The rate was higher in people with chronic diseases than that in people without chronic diseases(6.81%vs.2.29%).Logistic regression analysis showed that unmarried(OR=2.32,95%CI:1.31-4.10),separated/divorced(OR=2.49,95%CI:1.33-4.67),in debt(OR=1.55,95%CI:1.04-2.32),chronic disease(OR=2.22,95%CI:1.39-3.53),family history of anxiety disorders(OR=12.05,95%CI:8.78-16.53),poor sleep(OR=2.64,95%CI:1.97-3.54)were risk factors of occurrence of anxiety disorders,while junior high school(OR=0.65,95%CI:0.44-0.96)was protective factor of anxiety disor-ders.Conclusion:Adults with chronic diseases,poor sleep,unmarried or separated/divorced,family history of anxi-ety disorders,and financial debt are at higher risk groups of anxiety disorder in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Re-gion.


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