1.A prediction model for hypertension risk among residents aged 18 to 79 years
GONG Haiying ; XUE Fengyu ; LIU Xiaofen ; XING Ruiting ; MIAO Yuyang ; ZHAO Yao
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(10):1075-1080
Objective:
To construct a hypertension risk prediction model for residents aged 18-79 years, so as to provide an assessment tool for early screening and prevention of hypertension in high-risk groups.
Methods:
The permanent residents aged 18-79 years from 6 townships (streets) in Fangshan District of Beijing Municipality were selected as the study subjects using a multi-stage stratified random sampling method from March to June 2023. Demographic information, lifestyle, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, and blood lipid were collected through questionnaire survey, physical examination, and laboratory tests. Subjects were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a 7∶3 ratio. The logistic regression model was used to screen the risk factors of hypertension, and a hypertension risk prediction nomogram was constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were used to verify the discrimination, fit, and clinical application value of the model.
Results:
A total of 4 438 subjects were included, including 2 365 males (53.29%) and 2 073 females (46.71%), with a mean age of (44.99±14.90) years. The prevalence of hypertension was 35.29% (1 566 cases), and the standardized prevalence was 24.74%. The logistic regression model screened out 9 influencing factors of hypertension. The nomogram was established as ln[p/ (1-p)]= -2.873 + 0.935×40-<50 years + 1.463×50-<60 years + 1.908×60-<70 years + 2.346×70-79 years + 0.298×male-0.675×college degree or above + 0.384×smoking + 0.227×drinking + 0.572×overweight + 1.449×obesity + 0.557×heart rate ≥80 beats/min + 0.428×diabetes + 0.484×dyslipidemia. The area under the ROC curve of the validation set was 0.821 (95%CI: 0.798-0.843), and the calibration curve results showed that the calibration curve fitted the actual curve well. Decision curve analysis showed that the threshold probability was in the range of 0.10 to 0.70, and the model had good predictive value and clinical application value.
Conclusion
The nomogram based on age, gender, educational level, smoking, drinking, body mass index, heart rate, diabetes, and dyslipidemia can be used to predict the risk of hypertension among residents aged 18-79 years.
2.The prevalence, awareness, treatment and control rates of diabetes among residents in Fangshan District
GONG Haiying ; XING Ruiting ; LIU Xiaofen ; MIAO Yuyang ; ZHENG Kexin ; ZHAO Yao
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(7):616-621
Objective:
To investigate the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control rates of diabetes among residents in Fangshan District, Bejing Municipality, so as to provide reference for strengthening the prevention and control of diabetes.
Methods:
The residents aged 18 to 79 years were selected in Fangshan District using multistage stratified cluster sampling method from March to June 2023. Demographic information, lifestyle, body mass index, fasting blood glucose, and blood lipid were collected through questionnaire surveys, physical examinations and laboratory tests. The prevalence, awareness, treatment and control rates of diabetes among residents were analyzed and their influencing factors were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model.
Results:
A total of 4 438 residents were enrolled, including 2 367 males (53.33%) and 2 071 females (46.67%), and had a mean age of (44.99±14.90) years. The prevalence, awareness, treatment and control rates of diabetes were 15.75%, 57.37%, 56.22% and 22.90%, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age (aged 30 to 39 years, OR=1.624, 95%CI: 1.011-2.609; aged 40 to 49 years, OR=3.469, 95%CI: 2.163-5.561; aged 50 to 59 years, OR=4.202, 95%CI: 2.595-6.803; aged 60 to 69 years, OR=7.229, 95%CI: 4.406-11.862; aged 70 to 79 years, OR=7.929, 95%CI: 4.665-13.479), obesity (OR=1.368, 95%CI: 1.071-1.748), hypertension (OR=1.943, 95%CI: 1.601-2.359) and dyslipidemia (OR=2.754, 95%CI: 2.287-3.317) were the factors affecting the prevalence of diabetes. Sex (women, OR=1.529, 95%CI: 1.019-2.293), age (aged 40 to 49 years, OR=4.971, 95%CI: 1.681-14.698; aged 50 to 59 years, OR=6.070, 95%CI: 2.045-18.020; aged 60 to 69 years, OR=6.902, 95%CI: 2.287-20.832; aged 70 to 79 years, OR=6.954, 95%CI: 2.191-22.070) and hypertension (OR=1.906, 95%CI: 1.337-2.718) were the factors affecting the awareness of diabetes. Age (aged 40 to 49 years, OR=4.699, 95%CI: 1.594-13.855; aged 50 to 59 years, OR=5.990, 95%CI: 2.023-17.732; aged 60 to 69 years, OR=7.134, 95%CI: 2.370-21.470; aged 70 to 79 years, OR=6.639, 95%CI: 2.102-20.964) and hypertension (OR=1.857, 95%CI: 1.304-2.645) were the factors affecting the treatment of diabetes. Age (aged 40 to 49 years, OR=2.948, 95%CI: 1.349-6.438; aged 60 to 69 years, OR=2.344, 95%CI: 1.049-5.234) was the factor affecting the control of diabetes.
Conclusions
The prevalence rate of diabetes among residents in Fangshan District was high, and the improvements of awareness rate, treatment rate and control rate were not obvious. Health education and management of diabetes should be strengthened for elderly, hypertensive and dyslipidemic residents.


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