Objective To explore the application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in predicting the number of reported hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province，to use this model to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis E, and to provide reference for the scientific prevention and control of hepatitis E. Methods Monthly reported cases of hepatitis E in Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2021 were collected. The ARIMA model was established using SPSS 27.0, and the model was validated and parameters were optimized with data from January 2022 to December 2022. The optimal fitting model was used to predict the incidence of hepatitis E in 2023. Results Hepatitis E incidence in Yunnan Province showed a certain seasonal distribution, with most cases concentrated from March to August. All parameters of ARIMA(3,1,4)(1,1,1)₁₂ passed statistical tests. The Ljung-Box test showed statistic Q =10.050, P = 0.346, residual sequence was a white noise sequence, and goodness-of-fit index stationary R² was 0.591. The model extrapolation effect was verified with 2022 data, and MAPE was 14.747, indicating that the model extrapolation effect was effective. The number of hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province in 2023 was expected to be 1,086. Conclusion The ARIMA (3,1,4)(1,1,1)₁₂ model shows good fitting performance for hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province and can effectively predict short-term disease trends, providing a theoretical basis for formulating prevention and control measures for hepatitis E.

OBJECTIVE: To study incident and clinical characteristics of the coronary microcirculation dysfunction (CMD) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) by myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) and to explore the predictive value of CMD for in-hospital acute heart failure event. METHODS: One hundred and forty five patients with AMI who had received PCI and completed MCE during hospitalization in Peking University People' s Hospital from November 2015 to July 2021 were enrolled in our study. The patients were divided into CMD group and normal group according to the coronary microcirculation status detected by MCE. Clinical data and MCE data of the two groups were collected and analyzed. The acute heart failure event during hospitalization was described. A multivariate Logistic regression model was built to analyze the risk of acute heart failure in patients with CMD. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the value of CMD in predicting acute heart failure event. RESULTS: CMD detected by MCE occurred in 87 patients (60%). Compared with normal group, patients with CMD had higher troponin I (TnI) peak level [52.8 (8.1, 84.0) μg/L vs. 18.9 (5.7, 56.1) μg/L, P=0.005], poorer Killip grade on admission (P=0.030), different culprit vessel (P < 0.001) and more patients had thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) flow pre-PCI less than grade 3 in culprit vessel (65.1% vs. 43.1%, P=0.025). Meanwhile, patients with CMD had poorer left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) [52% (43%, 58%) vs. 61% (54%, 66%)], poorer global longitudinal strain (GLS) [-11.2% (-8.7%, -14.0%) vs.-13.9% (-10.8%, -17.0%)] and worse wall motion score index (WMSI) (1.58±0.36 vs. 1.25± 0.24) (P all < 0.001). Acute left heart failure happened in 13.8% of the CMD patients, which were significant higher than that in the patients with normal coronary microcirculation perfusion (1.7%, P=0.013). After correcting for the culprit vessel, the TIMI flow pre-PCI in the culprit vessel and the peak TnI value, the risk of acute left heart failure in the patients with CMD was still high (OR=9.120, 95%CI: 1.152-72.192, P=0.036). The area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.677 (95%CI: 0.551-0.804, P=0.035). CONCLUSION The incidence of CMD detected by MCE in patients with AMI post-PCI was 60%. Patients with CMD have a higher risk of acute left heart failure during hospitalization.
Humans ; Heart Failure/physiopathology* ; Microcirculation ; Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/adverse effects* ; Myocardial Infarction/complications* ; Male ; Female ; Hospitalization ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Echocardiography ; Coronary Circulation ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Troponin I/blood*

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the differential efficacy and safety profiles of oral mucosa (OM) grafts compared with acellular dermal matrix (ADM) grafts in the surgical management of long-segment urethral strictures. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted involving 27 patients who underwent graft urethroplasty for long-segment urethral strictures in Peking University First Hospital, spanning from May 2010 to September 2023. The patient cohort comprised 14 individuals who received OM grafts and 13 who underwent ADM grafts. The participants were stratified into two groups based on the type of grafts material utilized during surgery. The demographic and clinical baseline characteristics included an average age of (43.3±14.0) years in the OM group and (54.2±15.9) years in the ADM group. The mean body mass index (BMI) for the respective groups were (24.7±4.3) kg/m² for OM and (25.4±4.8) kg/m² for ADM. Etiological differences were noted, with idiopathic causes predominantly in the OM cohort and lichen sclerosus in the ADM cohort. RESULTS: The surgical interventions were successfully executed for all the patients. The median stricture length was 4.5 (2.5, 9.0) cm for the OM group and 5.0 (2.0, 14.0) cm for the ADM group (P=0.555). The median operative duration was 160 (71, 221) min for the OM group and 134 (112, 274) min for the ADM group (P=0.065). The catheterization durations was 1.5 (1.0, 6.0) months for the OM group and 3.0 (1.0, 3.0) months for the ADM group. The median postoperative follow-up duration was 12.5 (1.0, 170.0) months for the OM group and 59.0 (3.0, 142.0) months for the ADM group. The surgical success rates were 50.00% in the OM group and 53.85% in the ADM group. No statistically significant differences were observed in postoperative quality of life (QoL) or international prostate symptom score (IPSS) at the final follow-up. The stricture-free survival rates did not differ significantly (HR=0.875, 95%CI: 0.507-1.511, P=0.6). In terms of safety, three patients in the OM group experienced sexual dysfunction, and two had oral complications, whereas the ADM group had one case of postoperative infection. CONCLUSION The findings suggest that ADM grafts are comparable to OM grafts in terms of efficacy and safety for the treatment of long-segment urethral strictures, including complex cases attributed to lichen sclerosus. However, given the small sample size of this study, the above conclusions may have certain limitations. Larger cohort studies will be needed in the future to further validate these findings.
Humans ; Urethral Stricture/surgery* ; Acellular Dermis ; Mouth Mucosa/transplantation* ; Retrospective Studies ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Adult ; Treatment Outcome ; Skin Transplantation/methods* ; Aged

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of early antimicrobial therapy on the prognosis of patients with suspected sepsis in emergency and outpatient settings. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted. Patients with suspected sepsis admitted to the emergency department of Taizhou Hospital, Zhejiang Province, from May 1, 2022, to July 31, 2023, were enrolled. Participants were divided into an early group (0-1 hour) and a delayed group (> 1 hour) according to duration from admission to antimicrobial administration. General information, initial vital signs, laboratory parameters within 24 hours after admission, disease severity scores, vasoactive drug usage, and clinical outcomes of the patient were collected. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to analyze 28-day survival. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to identify independent risk factors for prognosis of the patients with suspected sepsis in emergency and outpatient settings. Sensitivity analyses were conducted through subgroup analyses. RESULTS: A total of 143 patients with suspected sepsis were enrolled in the analysis, with 66 patients in the early group and 77 in the delayed group. No statistically significant differences were observed in baseline characteristics (age, gender, vital signs, laboratory parameters, disease severity scores) or clinical outcomes [vasoactive drug usage rate, mechanical ventilation duration, length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, total hospitalization duration] between the two groups. The 28-day mortality, multidrug resistance rate and sepsis confirmation rate did not differ significantly between the early group and delay group [28-day mortality: 18.2% (12/66) vs. 20.8% (16/77), multidrug resistance rate: 3.0% (2/66) vs. 2.6% (2/77), sepsis confirmation rate: 87.9% (58/66) vs. 88.3% (68/77), all P > 0.05]. Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis showed no difference in 28-day cumulative survival between the two groups (Log-Rank test: χ² = 2.528, P = 0.112). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression identified vasoactive drug usage [hazard ration (HR) = 2.465, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.019-5.961, P = 0.045] and endotracheal intubation (HR = 5.516, 95%CI was 2.195-13.858, P < 0.001) as independent risk factors for 28-day death of the patients with suspected sepsis in emergency and outpatient settings. Further exploration of the impact of early antimicrobial therapy on 28-day death in different subgroups of the patients with suspected sepsis in emergency and outpatient settings was conducted through subgroup analysis. The results showed that in the patients with different ages (< 60 years old: HR = 1.214, 95%CI was 0.535-2.751, P = 0.643; ≥ 60 years old: HR = 2.085, 95%CI was 0.233-18.668, P = 0.511), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores (< 6: HR = 1.411, 95%CI was 0.482-4.128, P = 0.530; ≥ 6: HR = 0.869, 95%CI was 0.292-2.587, P = 0.801), shock indexes (< 1: HR = 1.095, 95%CI was 0.390-3.077, P = 0.863; ≥ 1: HR = 1.364, 95%CI was 0.458-4.059, P = 0.577) and whether diagnosed with sepsis or not (yes: HR = 0.943, 95%CI was 0.059-15.091, P = 0.967; no: HR = 1.207, 95%CI was 0.554-2.628, P = 0.636) subgroups, early usage of antibiotics had not shown any advantage in improving prognosis compared with delayed usage. CONCLUSION Early antimicrobial therapy does not improve the prognosis of patients with suspected sepsis in emergency and outpatient settings.
Humans ; Sepsis/drug therapy* ; Prospective Studies ; Prognosis ; Emergency Service, Hospital ; Outpatients ; Female ; Male ; Anti-Infective Agents/therapeutic use* ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Treatment Outcome

OBJECTIVE: To identify and validate novel biomarkers for the early diagnosis of sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) and precise continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) using proteomics. METHODS: A prospective multicenter cohort study was conducted. Patients with sepsis admitted to five hospitals in Taizhou City of Zhejiang Province from April 2019 to December 2021 were continuously enrolled, based on the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI). Sepsis patients were divided into SA-AKI group and non-SA-AKI group, and healthy individuals who underwent physical examinations during the same period were used as control (NC group). Peripheral blood samples from participants were collected for protein mass spectrometry analysis. Differentially expressed proteins were identified, and functional enrichment analysis was conducted on these proteins. The levels of target proteins were detected by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and the predictive value of target protein for SA-AKI were evaluated by receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve). Additionally, sepsis patients and healthy individuals were selected from one hospital to externally verify the expression level of the target protein and its predictive value for SA-AKI, as well as the accuracy of CRRT treatment. RESULTS: A total of 37 patients with sepsis (including 19 with AKI and 18 without AKI) and 31 healthy individuals were enrolled for proteomic analysis. Seven proteins were identified with significantly differential expression between the SA-AKI group and non-SA-AKI group: namely cystatin C (CST3), β ₂-microglobulin (β ₂M), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 4 (IGFBP4), complement factor I (CFI), complement factor D (CFD), CD59, and glycoprotein prostaglandin D2 synthase (PTGDS). Functional enrichment analysis revealed that these proteins were involved in immune response, complement activation, coagulation cascade, and neutrophil degranulation. ELISA results demonstrated specific expression of each target protein in the SA-AKI group. Additionally, 65 patients with sepsis (38 with AKI and 27 without AKI) and 20 healthy individuals were selected for external validation of the 7 target proteins. ELISA results showed that there were statistically significant differences in the expression levels of CST3, β ₂M, IGFBP4, CFD, and CD59 between the SA-AKI group and non-SA-AKI group. ROC curve analysis indicated that the area under the curve (AUC) values of CST3, β ₂M, IGFBP4, CFD, and CD59 for predicting SA-AKI were 0.788, 0.723, 0.723, 0.795, and 0.836, respectively, all exceeding 0.7. Further analysis of patients who underwent CRRT or not revealed that IGFBP4 had a good predictive value, with an AUC of 0.84. CONCLUSIONS Based on proteomic analysis, CST3, β ₂M, IGFBP4, CFD, and CD59 may serve as potential biomarkers for the diagnosis of SA-AKI, among which IGFBP4 might be a potential biomarker for predicting the need for CRRT in SA-AKI patients. However, further clinical validation is required.
Humans ; Sepsis/complications* ; Acute Kidney Injury/blood* ; Proteomics ; Prospective Studies ; Biomarkers/blood* ; Male ; Female ; beta 2-Microglobulin/blood* ; Middle Aged ; Cystatin C/blood* ; Aged

Objective:To analyze the changing trends of the epidemic characteristics of human brucellosis in Hangzhou City, and to provide a basis for further formulating prevention and control measures.Methods:The epidemic data of brucellosis in Hangzhou City from 2004 to 2021 were collected from the "China Disease Control and Prevention Information System" and the annual reports, compilations and summaries of prevention and control work of brucellosis in Hangzhou City, and the epidemiological characteristics and trends of brucellosis cases in Hangzhou City from 2004 to 2009, 2010 to 2015, and 2016 to 2021 were compared and analyzed.Results:A total of 186 cases of brucellosis were diagnosed in Hangzhou City from 2004 to 2021, with an average annual incidence rate of 0.151/100 000, ranging from 0.016/100 000 to 0.286/100 000. The incidence rate showed a stage-by-stage upward trend from 2004 to 2009, 2010 to 2015, and 2016 to 2021 ( Z = 3.15, P = 0.002). The age of onset of brucellosis cases was predominantly 18 - 60 years old, accounting for 78.49% (146/186). The male-to-female ratio was 2.10∶1.00 (126∶60). The occupational and non-occupational populations accounted for 62.90% (117/186) and 37.10% (69/186), respectively, with the proportion of non-occupational cases in the three stages being 28.57%, 23.29% and 51.76%, showing an increasing trend (χ 2trend = 9.85, P = 0.002). The regional distribution was dominated by Yuhang District, accounting for 55.91% (104/186), followed by Jianggan District (9.14%, 17/186) and Fuyang District (7.53%, 14/186). The number of brucellosis epidemic counties (cities, districts) increased from 6 to 9. The seasonal analysis showed that the proportion of cases from January to June decreased from 84.93% (23/28) from 2004 to 2009 to 54.12% (46/85) from 2016 to 2021. The proportion of infection from outside the province in the three stages was 0, 10.96% and 27.38%, respectively, showing an upward trend (χ 2trend = 18.16, P < 0.001), the main infected areas were Henan Province, Heilongjiang Province, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. In clinical symptoms and signs, the incidence of muscle and joint pain and low back pain increased from 60.71% (17/28) and 10.71% (3/28) from 2004 to 2009, respectively, to 83.53% (71/85) and 25.88% (22/85) from 2016 to 2021, both showing an upward trend (χ 2trend = 9.92, 4.67, P = 0.002, 0.031). Conclusions:The incidence of human brucellosis in Hangzhou City is on the rise, and the number of cases of non-occupational population has increased significantly in recent years. The sheep breeding places have gradually become the high incidence areas of brucellosis in Hangzhou City. It is recommended to strengthen the promotion and education of knowledge on brucellosis prevention among the general public, and focus on actively monitoring human brucellosis in high-risk areas.

Objective To analyze the current research status and hotspots in the field of operating room efficiency both domestically and internationally,and provide theoretical and practical guidance for the improvement and evaluation of operating room efficiency.Methods Using bibliometric methods to search for domestic and foreign literature on operating room efficiency in CNKI and Web of Science core collection databases,Citespace software was used for visual analysis of publication volume,core authors,publication institutions,keyword co-occurrence,clustering,and emergence.Results A total of 387 foreign litera-ture on operating room efficiency were retrieved,with the United States ranking first in terms of publication volume.Research in-stitutions mostly collaborate closely,with research hotspots mainly focusing on time management,anesthesia management,cost management,and quality management.Research frontiers include artificial intelligence,quality improvement,etc;A total of 235 domestic literature have been searched,but a close cooperation network has not yet formed.The research hotspots mainly include lean management,process management,nursing management,etc.The research frontiers include information systems,quality and safety,etc.Conclusion China should integrate research capabilities,strengthen institutional cooperation,pay attention to research hotspots and frontiers,and increase the importance of research on operating room efficiency.

OBJECTIVE To construct a clinical model of motion sickness(MS),provide a relatively objective diagnostic model for MS research,and provide a basis for further clinical intervention of the disease.METHODS A total of 60 subjects were included and divided into experimental group and control group according to the presence or absence of MS.The MS clinical model was established using SRM-IV rotating chair.Peripheral blood was collected before and after acceleration exposure,and the contents of adrenocorticotropic hormone(ACTH),growth hormone(GH),prolactin(PRL),follicle stimulating hormone(FSH),luteinizing hormone(LH),thyroid stimulating hormone(TRH)and gastrin-17(G-17),acetylcholine(ACH)and 5-hydroxytryptamine(5-HT)were detected,Graybiel scale was used to evaluate the severity of MS.The correlation between MS symptoms and signs and peripheral blood indexes was analyzed by multiple linear regression,and the diagnostic model was established.construct a clinical model of MS and a diagnostic model based on blood parameters,so as to provide a reliable clinical model and an objective diagnostic model for MS research,and to provide a basis for further clinical intervention of the disease.RESULTS After acceleration exposure,the Graybiel scores,ACH,5-HT,ACTH,GH and PRL levels in peripheral blood of the experimental group were higher than those before exposure,and were significantly different from those of the control group(P<0.001).There was no significant difference in FSH,LH,TRH and G-17 between the two groups before and after acceleration exposure(P>0.05).Multi-index combined diagnostic model:Graybiel scores=-9.32+0.131×ACTH+0.055×ACH+0.041×5-HT.CONCLUSION The levels of ACH,5-HT,ACTH,GH and PRL increased during the onset of MS.The multi-index combined diagnosis model can provide a certain basis for the objective diagnosis of MS in clinical practice.

Background::The incidence rate of lung cancer in women has significantly increased over the past decade, and previous evidence has indicated a significant relationship between the elevated levels of sex hormones and the risk of lung cancer. Therefore, we hypothesized that female hormone-related cancer (FHRC) patients, including breast, endometrial, cervical, and ovarian cancer patients, may experience a higher risk of developing subsequent lung cancer. This meta-analysis aimed to identify the risk of lung cancer among FHRC patients compared to the general population.Methods::The PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and CNKI databases were searched up to May 11, 2022. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to identify the risk of subsequent lung cancer after FHRC. Subgroup analyses based on the follow-up time and tumor type were also conducted.Results::A total of 58 retrospective cohort studies involving 4,360,723 FHRC participants were included. The pooled results demonstrated that FHRC patients had a significantly increased risk of developing subsequent primary lung cancer (SIR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.48-1.76, P <0.001). Subgroup analysis revealed an obvious trend of increasing lung cancer risk over time (SIRs for <5 years, ≥5 years, ≥10 years, ≥20 years, and ≥30 years after FHRC: 1.32, 1.59, 1.57, 1.68, and 1.95, respectively). In addition, subgroup analysis stratified by tumor type indicated an increased risk of developing subsequent lung cancer after breast (SIR = 1.25, P <0.001), endometrial (SIR = 1.40, P = 0.019), cervical (SIR = 2.56, P <0.001), and ovarian cancer (SIR = 1.50, P = 0.010). Conclusion::FHRC patients are more likely to develop lung cancer than the general population. Furthermore, the increased risk of subsequent primary lung cancer is more obvious with a longer survival time and is observed in all types of hormone-related cancer.Registration::International Platform of Registered Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Protocols: No. INPLASY202270044; https://inplasy.com/

Objective To investigate the diagnostic efficiency of artificial intelligence(AI)in rib frac-ture under the computed tomography(CT)images with different reconstruction slice thickness.Methods The first CT images of 100 patients with rib fractures were selected,and the interval-free recon-struction was carried out with the thickness of 0.625 mm,1.250 mm,2.500 mm and 5.000 mm,respectively.The rib fracture screening function of AI was used to automatically detect the CT images of four groups,and the diagnostic efficiency of AI for rib fracture under different reconstruction thickness conditions was com-pared.Results The sensitivity of AI in the diagnosis of rib fracture at 0.625 mm,1.250 mm,2.500 mm and 5.000 mm thickness was 99.32%(436/439),98.41%(432/439),89.52%(393/439)and 83.60%(367/439),respectively.The false positive rate was 4.80%(22/458),0.92%(4/436),0.76%(3/396)and 0.27%(1/368).The diagnostic sensitivity of AI in 0.625 mm and 1.250 mm thickness was higher than that in 2.500 mm and 5.000 mm,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05),while there was no significant difference in the thickness of 0.625 mm and 1.250 mm.The false positive rate of AI in the diagnosis of 0.625 mm slice thickness was higher than that of 1.250 mm,2.500 mm and 5.000 mm,and the difference was sta-tistically significant(P<0.05),while there was no significant difference in the thickness of 1.250 mm,2.500 mm and 5.000 mm(P>0.05).Conclusion The diagnostic efficiency of AI in 1.250 mm CT images is better than that in 0.625 mm,2.500 mm and 5.000 mm CT images.