Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

Prosthesis loosening is the leading cause of postoperative revision in unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). The deviation of medial and lateral translational installation of the prosthesis during surgery is a common clinical phenomenon and an important factor in increasing the risk of prosthesis loosening. This study established a UKA finite element model and a bone-prosthesis fixation interface micromotion prediction model. The predicted medial contact force and joint motion of the knee joint from a patient-specific lower extremity musculoskeletal multibody dynamics model of UKA were used as boundary conditions. The effects of 9 femoral component medial and lateral translational installation deviations on the Von Mises stress of the proximal tibia, the contact stress, and the micro-motion of the bone prosthesis fixation interface were quantitatively studied. It was found that compared with the neutral position (a/A of 0.492), the lateral translational deviation of the femoral component significantly increased the tibial Von Mises stress and the bone-prosthesis fixation interface contact stress. The maximum Von Mises stress and the maximum contact stress of the fixation interface increased by 14.08% and 143.15%, respectively, when a/A was 0.361. The medial translational deviation of the femoral component significantly increased the bone-prosthesis fixation interface micro-motion. The maximum value of micromotion under the conditions of femoral neutral and medial translation deviation was in the range of 20-50 μm, which is suitable for osseointegration. Therefore, based on considerations such as the micromotion range suitable for osseointegration reported in the literature, the risk of reducing prosthesis loosening, and factors that may induce pain, it is recommended that clinicians control the mounting position of the femoral component during surgery within the safe range of 0-4 mm medial translation deviation.
Humans ; Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee/methods* ; Finite Element Analysis ; Biomechanical Phenomena ; Knee Prosthesis ; Tibia/surgery* ; Femur/surgery* ; Stress, Mechanical ; Prosthesis Failure ; Knee Joint/surgery* ; Prosthesis Design

Although metal blocks have been widely used for reconstructing uncontained tibial bone defects, the influence of their elastic modulus on the stability of tibial prosthesis fixation remains unclear. Based on this, a finite element model incorporating constrained condylar knee (CCK) prosthesis, tibia, and metal block was established. Considering the influence of the post-restraint structure of the prosthesis, the effects of variations in the elastic modulus of the block on the von Mises stress distribution in the tibia and the block, as well as on the micromotion at the bone-prosthesis fixation interface, were investigated. Results demonstrated that collision between the insert post and femoral prosthesis during tibial internal rotation increased tibial von Mises stress, significantly influencing the prediction of block elastic modulus variation. A decrease in the elastic modulus of the metal block resulted in increased von Mises stress in the proximal tibia, significantly reduced von Mises stress in the distal tibia, decreased von Mises stress of the block, and increased micromotion at the bone-prosthesis fixation interface. When the elastic modulus of the metal block fell below that of bone cement, inadequate block support substantially increased the risk of stress shielding in the distal tibia and fixation interface loosening. Therefore, this study recommends that biomechanical investigations of CCK prostheses must consider the post-constraint effect, and the elastic modulus of metal blocks for bone reconstruction should not be lower than 3 600 MPa.
Knee Prosthesis ; Humans ; Finite Element Analysis ; Tibia/surgery* ; Elastic Modulus ; Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee/methods* ; Stress, Mechanical ; Metals ; Prosthesis Design ; Knee Joint/surgery* ; Biomechanical Phenomena

Ischemic stroke (IS) is a globally life-threatening disease. Presently, few therapeutic medicines are available for treating IS, and rt-PA is the only drug approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the US. In fact, many agents showing excellent neuroprotection but no blood flow-improving activity in animals have not achieved ideal clinical efficacy, while thrombolytic drugs only improving blood flow without neuroprotection have limited their wider application. To address these challenges and meet the huge unmet clinical need, we have designed and identified a novel compound AAPB with dual effects of neuroprotection and cerebral blood flow improvement. AAPB significantly reduced cerebral infarction and neural function deficit in tMCAO rats, pMCAO rats, and IS rhesus monkeys, as well as displayed exceptional safety profiles and excellent pharmacokinetic properties in rats and dogs. AAPB has now entered phase I of clinical trials fighting IS in China.

Objective:To evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of sulodexide soft capsules in treating proteinuria after renal transplantation, as well as its impact on graft function.Methods:The clinical data from 80 recipients who developed proteinuria after renal transplantation and were treated with sulodexide soft capsules during regular follow-up at the outpatient department of Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology from March 1, 2019, to March 1, 2023, were retrospectively analyzed. Proteinuria levels, graft function, safety-related indicators (coagulation function), and adverse events were compared before treatment and at 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 months after treatment. Based on efficacy, recipients were divided into a satisfactory efficacy group (67 cases) and a general efficacy group (13 cases). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to stratify baseline data and explore factors influencing efficacy.Results:Among the 80 recipients, 63 (78.75%) had mild proteinuria and 17 (21.25%) had moderate proteinuria. The overall treatment response rate was 91.25% (73/80). Drug-related adverse events occurred in 12 patients (15.0%). Median urinary protein excretion at 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 months post-treatment was 0.35 (0.20, 0.55) g/24 h, 0.30 (0.17, 0.44) g/24 h, 0.23 (0.15, 0.39) g/24 h, 0.21 (0.13, 0.32) g/24 h, and 0.15 (0.10, 0.23) g/24 h, respectively, all significantly lower than the pre-treatment level of 0.52 (0.43, 0.90) g/24 h (all P<0.001). The median urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios at the corresponding time points were 99.15 (45.33, 201.13) μg/mg, 77.20 (43.30, 176.20) μg/mg, 57.50 (31.35, 173.75) μg/mg, 53.55 (25.90, 142.00) μg/mg, and 39.05 (20.53, 103.60) μg/mg, also significantly reduced compared to the pre-treatment value of 152.05 (71.90, 271.23) μg/mg ( P=0.012, P=0.003, P<0.001, P<0.001, P<0.001, respectively). At 12 months post-treatment, the serum creatinine level (132.86±36.86 μmol/L) showed a statistically significant improvement compared to the pre-treatment level (146.60±48.42 μmol/L) ( P=0.045). Univariate analysis indicated that satisfactory efficacy was associated with the time of proteinuria onset post-transplantation, the interval between proteinuria onset and treatment initiation, and recipient age ( HR= 1.001, 95% CI: 1.001-1.020, P=0.043; HR = 1.034, 95% CI: 1.009-1.058, P=0.006; HR=1.058, 95% CI: 1.003-1.116, P=0.040). Stratified univariate analysis revealed that proteinuria onset within 2 years post-transplantation, treatment initiation within 2 years of proteinuria onset, and age younger than 45 years were significantly associated with satisfactory efficacy ( HR=5.524, 95% CI: 1.510-20.207, P=0.010; HR= 7.800, 95% CI: 2.104-28.920, P=0.002; HR=5.972, 95% CI: 1.497-23.822, P=0.011). Multivariate analysis identified the interval between proteinuria onset and treatment initiation as an independent factor influencing satisfactory efficacy ( HR=1.025, 95% CI: 1.010-1.093, P=0.015). Conclusions:Sulodexide effectively reduces proteinuria after renal transplantation, particularly in mild-to-moderate or early-onset cases, while maintaining stable allograft function without significant adverse effects

Objective Based on the finite element simulation analysis of the patient's torso-spine model and combined with theoretical calculation data,an individualized scoliosis orthosis was designed,and the effectiveness of the orthosis was verified through three-dimensional(3D)printing.Methods A patient with idiopathic scoliosis was chosen as the research object.Reverse engineering technology and computer-aided technology were used to establish the torso-spine model of the patient.The finite element method was used to analyze the model,and the optimal position and magnitude of the corrective force were determined by combining literature theory calculation.Based on this,an orthosis was designed.To verify the orthopedic effect,the patient's X-rays before and after wearing the orthosis were compared and evaluated,and the patient was followed up 6 months later.Results The optimal position and magnitude of the initial corrective force were determined through theoretical calculations and finite element simulations.Specifically,a 62.95 N corrective force applied to the L3 vertebral body and the left posterior region corresponding to the upper and lower intervertebral discs in the patient's lateral curvature segment of the spine to achieve the optimal orthopedic effect.On this basis,the orthosis was designed,followed by relevant experimental tests before and after wearing the designed orthosis.By comparing X-ray images of the patient before and after wearing the orthosis and combining them with follow-up data six months later,the optimized design of the orthosis met the expected clinical requirements for orthopedic effects.Conclusions The design of orthosis needs to be personalized according to the specific situation of patients with scoliosis.This study takes a patient with idiopathic scoliosis as the research object,providing new ideas and methods for the design of orthosis for patients with idiopathic scoliosis.

Objective:To evaluate the clinical features and risk factors of anastomotic leakage (AL) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by laparoscopic radical resection and proctocol ostomy.Method:Clinicla data of LARC patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by laparoscopic radical resection and proctocol ostomy admitted to Peking Union Medical College Hospital between Jan 2019 and Oct 2023 was enrolled. According to the occurrence of AL, patients were divided into AL group and non-AL group.Results:After propersity matching score(PSM), there were 40 patients (33.4%) and 80 patients (66.6%) in the AL and non-AL group, respectively. The first-onset symptoms of AL were abnormal character and color of the drainage (23 cases, 57.5%) and fever (14 cases, 35.0%). About 82.5% of the AL were graded as B,and all 36 patients (90.0%) were managed consveratively by fully drainage anti-infection therapy. Logistic regression analysis indicated that tumor circumferential range more than 1/2 cycle ( OR=5.95, 95% CI:2.12-1.67, P=0.004), male ( OR=4.28, 95% CI:1.22-15.00, P=0.023) and high-ligation of Inferior mesenteric artery ( OR=8.08, 95% CI:1.86-37.78, P=0.006) were independent risk factors of AL. Conclusions:In this series, grade-B AL ranks the top of the incidence, and all were cured by conservative therapy. Special attention should be paid to those patients with the characteristics of male, tumor circumferential range more than 1/2 cycle, and high-ligation of inferior mesenteric artery.

Objective: To explore the relationship between school sports environment and physical activity levels of middle school students, so as to provide theoretical and empirical support for optimizing school sports environment and enhance adolescent physical activity. Methods: Using multi-stage random cluster sampling, from September to December 2023, 1 329 junior and senior high school students from Xuancheng City of Anhui Province, Lianyungang City of Jiangsu Province, Wuhan City of Hubei Province, Qiqihar City and Suihua City of Heilongjiang Province, and Shenzhen City of Guangdong Province were selected. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (IPAQ-SF) assessed students physical activity levels, and the questionnaire on the characteristics of school sports environment was developed to evaluate the factors of school sports environment. Multivariate ordered Logistic regression was performed to analyze the correlation between school sports environment factors and physical activity levels, and the analytic hierarchy process determined the weight of key influencing factors. Results: The results showed that weekly vigorous physical activity time was [60 (25, 90)] minutes, moderate physical activity time was [60 (30, 90)] minutes, light physical activity time was [105 (40, 200)] minutes, and sedentary behavior time was [ 3 300 (2 100, 4 500)] minutes, only 10.53% of the students met World Health Organization physical activity recommendations, and 89.69% of the students averaged >8 h daily sedentary time. Multivariate ordered Logistic regression showed that adequate sports equipment significantly promoted physical activity across all intensities and reduced sedentary time ( OR = 4.97, 11.54, 4.03, 0.11); diverse sports activities improved vigorous and moderate physical activity while reducing sedentary time ( OR =4.20, 14.06, 0.17); and peer encouragement was associated with increased low-intensity physical activities and decreased sedentary time ( OR =10.40, 0.15)( P <0.05). The analytic hierarchy process weighting analysis identified the top three influential factors related to physical activity among middle school students: sufficient sports equipment, varied physical education activities, frequent peer encouragement, the influence weight accounts for 23.55% , 14.18% and 11.77% of the total, respectively. Conclusion Key school sports environmental factors for adolescent physical activity level include ensuring adequate sports equipment and class availability, diversifying activity content, fostering peer support, and cultivating an active sports culture and a comprehensive approach encourage students participation in extracurricular physical activities.

Objective To investigate the factors influencing international normalized ratio (INR)>3.0 in patients undergoing warfarin anticoagulation therapy after mechanical heart valve replacement. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of patients who underwent mechanical heart valve replacement surgery and received warfarin anticoagulation therapy at West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 1, 2011 to June 30, 2022. Based on the discharge INR values, patients were divided into two groups: an INR≤3.0 group and an INR>3.0 group. The factors associated with INR>3.0 at the time of discharge were analyzed. Results A total of 8901 patients were enrolled, including 3409 males and 5492 females, with a median age of 49.3 (43.5, 55.6) years. The gender, body mass index (BMI), New York Heart Association (NYHA) cardiac function grading, INR, glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, and preoperative prothrombin time (PT) were statistically different between the two groups (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lower BMI, preoperative PT>15 s, and mitral valve replacement were independent risk factors for INR>3.0 at discharge (P<0.05). Conclusion BMI, preoperative PT, and surgical site are factors influencing INR>3.0 at discharge in patients undergoing warfarin anticoagulation therapy after mechanical heart valve replacement. Special attention should be given to patients with lower BMI, longer preoperative PT, and mitral valve replacement to avoid excessive anticoagulation therapy.

This paper analyzed the causes of peripheral nerve injury induced by acupoint injection, and proposed methods for prevention. These methods included emphasizing the physicochemical properties of medications and strengthening research on medication compatibility, classifying high-risk acupoints and establishing international standards for safe acupoint needling, standardizing clinical procedures for acupoint injection, and incorporating ultrasound technology when necessary to improve the accuracy and safety of the procedure. These strategies aimed to reduce the risk associated with the clinical application of acupoint injection.
Humans ; Peripheral Nerve Injuries/prevention & control* ; Ultrasonography ; Acupuncture Points ; Injections/adverse effects*