Objective To investigate the impact of holiday effects and prevention/control measures on the development characteristics and incidence trends of influenza in Hefei City using a Prophet-LSTM hybrid model, and to validate the applicability of the Prophet-LSTM model in influenza prediction by comparing the performance of different forecasting models. Methods Influenza incidence data from Hefei City (2016–2024) were collected to construct a Prophet-LSTM feature analysis and prediction model to analyze the impact of holiday effects and intervention measures on influenza incidence trends. Comparative models (ARIMA, GRU, and TimeGPT) were established and evaluated on the same test set. Results The data analysis revealed significantly increased influenza incidence during holidays (e.g., New Year's Day, Spring Festival, and National Day), while prevention and control measures led to declining trends. The Prophet-LSTM model demonstrated high consistency between the predicted and actual values, outperforming the comparative models with superior MAE (0.209), MSE (0.195), and IA (0.914), indicating higher prediction accuracy and trend-fitting capability. Conclusion The Prophet-LSTM model effectively captures spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza incidence, exhibits enhanced predictive performance when incorporating holiday effects and intervention measures, and demonstrates significant advantages and application value in influenza forecasting.

Objective To quantitatively assess the exposure-response association between exposure to heatwave and sudden death, estimate the attributable excess deaths, and identify potential vulnerable subgroups. Methods A time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted among residents who died from sudden death in Jiangsu Province, China between 2015 and 2021. Heatwave events in Jiangsu Province, defined using varying relative temperature thresholds and durations, were identified using temperature data from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS V2.0). Individual heatwave exposure was assessed based on each subject's residential address. The exposure-response association between heatwave and sudden death was evaluated using conditional logistic regression model combined with a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model(DLNM). Heatwave-attributable excess deaths were estimated. Stratified analyses by sex and age were performed to assess potential effect modifications. Results Under all definitions, exposure to heatwave was significantly associated with an increased risk of sudden death, and the risk increased with the intensity of heatwave. Using the P95_3d definition (temperature exceeding the 95th percentile for ≥3 consecutive days), heatwave was significantlyassociated with a 56% increased risk of sudden death (95% CI: 31%, 86%). The population-attributable fraction of sudden death due to heatwave exposure was 1.45% (95% CI: 0.97%, 1.90%). Stratified analyses indicated no statistically significant differences in the association between heatwave exposure and sudden death across age or sex subgroups. Conclusion Heatwave exposure was associated with an increased risk of sudden death. Reducing heatwave exposure during summer may help lower the occurrence of sudden death.

Objective To analyze the clinical manifestations of patients over 60 years old with acute respiratory infection in Pudong New Area of Shanghai and the risk factors of positive detection of novel coronavirus, and to provide reference for improving prevention and control strategies and measures. Methods General conditions, clinical features, basic complications and respiratory samples of inpatients over 60 years old with acute respiratory infection from eight hospitals in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from January to October 2023 were collected, and SARS-CoV-2 detection was carried out. Chi-square test and binary logistics regression were used for data analysis. Results A total of 604 patients over 60 years old were collected, including 356 (58.945) males with a median age of 77 (IQR:70-85) years. Of the 604 cases, 264 were detected positive for SARS-CoV-2, with a positive detection rate of 43.71%. The results of univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in the detection rates of SARS-CoV-2 among different age groups (χ²=10.60, P=0.01) and different months (χ²=87.15, P=0.00), and among those with cough (χ²=5.28, P=0.02), sputum (χ²=4.19, P=0.04), sore throat (χ²=3.93, P=0.04), and hypertension (χ²=7.63, P=0.01). In the binary logistics regression analysis, month (P=0.00, OR=2.93, 95% CI=1.49-5.78) and age (P=0.00, OR=2.60, 95% CI=1.55-4.37) were independent risk factors for positive detection of SARS-CoV-2. Conclusion The majority of hospitalized cases of acute respiratory infection over 60 years old are male, and the risk factors for positive detection of novel coronavirus are age 80~89 years old and time between May and June.

Objective To analyze the characteristics of viral hepatitis mortality and life loss among residents in Pudong New Area from 2003 to 2023, and to provide a basis for related prevention and control work. Methods Viral hepatitis mortality data were obtained from the Pudong New Area mortality monitoring system. The crude mortality rate (CMR), standardized mortality rate (SMR), potential years of life lost (PYLL), average years of life lost (AYLL), and standardized potential years of life lost (SPYLL) were calculated to analyze viral hepatitis deaths. The average annual change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) of the mortality rate were calculated by Joinpoint regression analysis to analyze the trend of mortality. Results The CMR and SMR of viral hepatitis among residents in Pudong New Area from 2003 to 2023 were 3.89/100000 and 1.98/100000, respectively. Both CMR and SMR of viral hepatitis showed a decreasing trend over time (CMR:APC=-5.476, t=-13.581, P<0.001; SMR:APC=- 7.624, t= -21.253, P<0.001). The CMR for males was 4.75/100000 and the SMR for males was 2.65/100000; the CMR for females was 3.04/100000 and the SMR for females was 1.32/100000, with a higher mortality rate for males than for females（Z_CME=12.094，P<0.001; Z_SMR=-14.718，P<0.001). Deaths were concentrated in the age groups of 45-64 years old and 65 years old and above, accounting for 91.62% of the total deaths. The PYLL of deaths due to viral hepatitis among residents in Pudong New Area from 2003 to 2023 was 26912 person-years, with a PYLLR of 0.45% and an AYLL of 8.88 years per person. Conclusion The mortality rate of viral hepatitis among the residents of Pudong New Area in 2003-2023 shows a decreasing trend over time. The mortality rate of males is higher than that of females, and the deaths of middle-aged and elderly people account for a large proportion of the total deaths. Chronic hepatitis B is the main cause of death.

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and disease burden of liver cancer in Guangdong Province in 2020, and to provide a scientific foundation for the development of regionalized prevention and control strategies for liver cancer. Methods According to the cancer registry data of Guangdong Province, the incidence, mortality and age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population in 2020 were calculated to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of liver cancer. The disability adjusted life years (DALYs), year of life loss (YLL), year of lived with disability (YLD), and cause-eliminated life expectancy were used to assess the disease burden of liver cancer. Results In 2020, the crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in Guangdong Province were 27.79/100 000 and 20.84/100 000，respectively, and the crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer were 25.49/100,000 and 17.64/100 000, respectively. The total DALY and DALY rate of liver cancer in Guangdong Province were 515 311 person-years and 513.83/100 000, respectively. After eliminating the causes of death from liver cancer, the life expectancy in Guangdong Province increased from 84.60 years to 84.99 years. All indicators consistently demonstrated that the burden of liver cancer was higher in males than that in females, and the burden of liver cancer was higher in rural areas than that in urban areas. Conclusion Liver cancer in Guangdong Province exhibits a high incidence, mortality and disease burden level in 2020. There are obvious differences of gender, age and region in cancer burden. It is necessary to strengthen liver cancer screening and diagnosis and treatment in men, the elderly and those in rural areas to reduce the burden of liver cancer gradually in Guangdong Province.

Objective To construct a prediction model for the population with hypertension and diabetes to assess the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD), and to provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted CKD prevention and control measures. Methods Based on physical examination data from community residents aged 60 years and above in Nanjing in 2022, 10 221 patients with hypertension and diabetes were selected as the study subjects. Variables associated with CKD prevalence were screened using univariate analysis, and further variable selection was performed using LASSO regression. Finally, a CKD risk prediction model was constructed based on logistic regression. The model's performance was evaluated using the ROC curve and calibration curve. Results The prevalence rate of CKD in the study population was 22.71%, with a mean age of 71.66 years. LASSO regression identified seven variables associated with CKD: age, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), hemoglobin, uric acid, triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR), and medical insurance type. The final logistic regression model incorporated six variables: age [OR=1.067 (95% CI: 1.058-1.076)], BUN [OR=1.377 (95% CI: 1.338-1.418)], hemoglobin [OR=0.992 (95% CI: 0.989-0.995)], uric acid [OR=1.004 (95% CI: 1.003-1.004)], TyG index [OR=1.445 (95% CI: 1.324-1.577)], and self-payment medical insurance [OR=1.732 (95% CI: 1.542-1.945)]. The model had an AUC of 0.759 (95% CI: 0.747-0.770) and a Brier score of 0.140 (95% CI: 0.136-0.145), indicating good predictive performance. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the predicted risk and the observed value. Conclusion The constructed LASSO-logistic regression risk prediction model in this study can effectively assess the risk of CKD in elderly individuals aged 60 years and above with hypertension and diabetes, providing a basis for early identification of high-risk individuals and the formulation of targeted CKD prevention and control measures.

Objective To evaluate the effects of inhaled conditioning with a mixture of lavender oil and citrus oil on sleep and depressive symptoms in puerperium women. Methods A randomized controlled trial design was used in this study. Convenience sampling method was used to select 144 pregnant women who gave birth in different hospitals in Shenzhen and were willing to spend the puerperium in the maternity center. According to the random number table method, the subjects were divided into the control group (n=68) and the intervention group (n=76). The intervention was mixed inhalation of lavender oil and citrus oil. Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and numerical rating Scale (NRS) were used to evaluate the subjects before and after the intervention. Results After the intervention, the PSQI total score, EPDS total score and pain score of the intervention group were significantly lower than those before the intervention (P<0.05). In particular, the intervention group showed the most significant improvements in sleep quality, time to fall asleep, sleep disturbance, and hypnotic medication use (P<0.05), while the control group showed improvements only in time to fall asleep and sleep disturbance. In addition, pain scores decreased in both groups, but the decrease was greater in the intervention group. Conclusions Inhalation of lavender oil and citrus oil can effectively improve the sleep quality, depression and pain of puerperium women, and provide a safe and effective non-drug therapy for puerperium women.

Objective To investigate the effect of bone metabolic markers on sarcopenia in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods A total of 412 patients with T2DM in the department of endocrinology of Nanjing Central Hospital from May 2020 to June 2025 were selected as the research subjects. According to Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS) in 2019, these patients were evaluated for skeletal muscle mass index (ASMI), muscle strength, and muscle function, and were divided into a sarcopenia group (84 cases) and a non-sarcopenia group (328 cases). The glucolipid metabolic indexes were detected in both groups of patients, and the bone metabolic markers were evaluated, including procollagen type 1 N-terminal peptide (P1NP), beta-C-terminal telopeptide of type 1 collagen (β-CTX), and 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25-(OH)D]. The factors influencing the occurrence of sarcopenia in T2DM patients were analyzed by logistic regression analysis, and the diagnostic values of bone metabolic markers on sarcopenia in patients with T2DM were assessed by ROC curve. Results The levels of P1NP and 25-(OH)D were lower, while β-CTX level was higher in the sarcopenia group compared to the non-sarcopenia group, with statistical differences (P<0.05). After logistic correlation analysis, it was found that P1NP, β-CTX and 25-(OH)D were all influencing factors for the occurrence of sarcopenia in T2DM patients. ROC curve analysis suggested that combined detection of PINP, β-CTX, and 25-(OH)D had higher diagnostic value, with an area under the curve up to 0.805. Conclusion The abnormal expression of bone metabolic markers is associated with the increased risk of sarcopenia in patients with T2DM. The detection of serum bone metabolic markers expression level is of certain significance for the assessment of diabetes-related sarcopenia.

Objective To study the five-year survival status and influencing factors of elderly patients with lung cancer complicated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods A cohort study was conducted to follow up 450 patients with lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who were hospitalized in our hospital from January 2018 to December 2023. The endpoint of the follow-up was the end of a five-year period or death. The Life Tables method was used to calculate survival rates and plot survival curves. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the influencing factors of five-year survival. Results The results indicated that the overall five-year survival rate of patients was 4.89%, and it decreased year by year. Cox regression analysis showed that age, gender, family functioning, and psychological status significantly influenced patient survival rate (all P<0.05). Stratified analysis found that the smoking status, family functioning, and psychological status of male patients all had an impact on survival rate (all P<0.05), while the psychological status of female patients had a more significant impact on survival (P=0.008). Conclusion This study provides a scientific basis for comprehensive intervention of elderly lung cancer patients with COPD. It is recommended that clinical attention should be paid to psychological and family factors to improve patient prognosis.

Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that occurs in the glandular epithelium of the breast, and it is one of the most common tumors that seriously affect the physical and mental health of women. With the aggravation of population aging, the incidence of breast cancer in the elderly has increased year by year in recent years. Elderly patients with breast cancer often have a variety of underlying diseases, and their prognosis is usually related to many factors such as cancer staging, cancer classification, treatment status and health status, with a significant difference in survival rate among patients. Due to the unique clinical and pathological characteristics of elderly patients with breast cancer compared to young and middle-aged patients, there are many studies on the treatment of elderly breast cancer patients in the past, and there are few reviews on the influencing factors of prognosis in elderly patients. This paper reviews the research progress of influencing factors of prognosis in elderly patients with breast cancer from the aspects of clinicopathological factors, treatment options and prognosis factors, in order to provide a reference for clinical determination of treatment options for elderly patients with breast cancer in the future.