1.Correlation Analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on Syndrome Improvement and Clinical Biomarkers of "Excess Heat-Toxicity" Based on Machine Learning Model
Qi LI ; Keke LUO ; Baolin BIAN ; Hongyu YU ; Mengxiao WANG ; Mengyao TIAN ; Wen XIA ; Yuan MA ; Xinfang ZHANG ; Pengyue LI ; Nan SI ; Hongjie WANG ; Yanyan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):162-173
ObjectiveThis paper aims to find the identified and validated clinical biomarker data building upon a clinical study of early-phase phase Ⅱ and investigate the correlation analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" based on a machine learning model. Additionally, the effective prediction of clinical biomarker values for the main symptoms of the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome was assessed. MethodsA total of 229 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome were randomly divided into the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group. Syndrome score transition matrices were constructed for the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group based on three main symptoms of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome, such as oral ulcers, sore throat, and gum swelling and pain. Data from the patients with these three syndromes were also integrated for an overall analysis. The corresponding syndrome score transition matrices were further constructed to visualize symptom change trends of the patients in the two groups via heatmaps. Based on the identified and validated clinical biomarkers related to inflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism in the early phase, Spearman correlation analysis was employed to analyze and evaluate the associations between clinical biomarkers and syndrome improvement. Key clinical biomarkers reflecting the effect of Huanglian Jiedu Wan were screened through the comparison of differences between groups. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to develop a prediction model for main symptom classification, with classification performance evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance analysis was applied to identify variables with the greatest contribution to the prediction result. ResultsThe syndrome transition matrix results indicated that the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group showed a superior effect to the placebo group in improving oral ulcers, sore throat, and overall symptoms, with significant effects observed especially in sore throat and overall symptom analyses (P<0.01). Spearman correlation analysis revealed that several clinical biomarkers positively correlated with "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome and its main symptom improvement, were also called "heat-related biomarkers", including succinic acid, α-ketoglutaric acid, glycine, lactic acid, adenosine monophosphate (AMP), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and so on. Conversely, clinical biomarkers negatively correlated with symptom severity, were also called "heat-clearing related biomarkers" after administration of Huanglian Jiedu Wan, including malic acid, fumaric acid, cis-aconitic acid, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), IL-1β, IL-4, IL-8, succinic acid, and citric acid. The XGBoost classification model using all 52 biomarkers as variables achieved an average test accuracy of 0.754 and an average F1 score of 0.777. Feature importance analysis identified the scores of glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 were the highest in all the variables, with importance scores of 0.081 and 0.080, respectively. After screening out 14 key variables and optimizing the parameters, model performance improved to an average accuracy of 0.758 and an F1 score of 0.798. Feature importance analysis further determined that the glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 showed obvious changes after screening the variables, confirming the good syndrome prediction ability of the model constructed by these key clinical biomarkers. ConclusionThis study systematically elucidates the correlation between syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers of Huanglian Jiedu Wan in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome. An XGBoost classification model based on key clinical biomarkers is successfully established, achieving effective prediction of the symptoms related to the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome such as oral ulcers and sore throat and providing a new insight for objective identification of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes.
2.Correlation Analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on Syndrome Improvement and Clinical Biomarkers of "Excess Heat-Toxicity" Based on Machine Learning Model
Qi LI ; Keke LUO ; Baolin BIAN ; Hongyu YU ; Mengxiao WANG ; Mengyao TIAN ; Wen XIA ; Yuan MA ; Xinfang ZHANG ; Pengyue LI ; Nan SI ; Hongjie WANG ; Yanyan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):162-173
ObjectiveThis paper aims to find the identified and validated clinical biomarker data building upon a clinical study of early-phase phase Ⅱ and investigate the correlation analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" based on a machine learning model. Additionally, the effective prediction of clinical biomarker values for the main symptoms of the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome was assessed. MethodsA total of 229 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome were randomly divided into the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group. Syndrome score transition matrices were constructed for the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group based on three main symptoms of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome, such as oral ulcers, sore throat, and gum swelling and pain. Data from the patients with these three syndromes were also integrated for an overall analysis. The corresponding syndrome score transition matrices were further constructed to visualize symptom change trends of the patients in the two groups via heatmaps. Based on the identified and validated clinical biomarkers related to inflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism in the early phase, Spearman correlation analysis was employed to analyze and evaluate the associations between clinical biomarkers and syndrome improvement. Key clinical biomarkers reflecting the effect of Huanglian Jiedu Wan were screened through the comparison of differences between groups. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to develop a prediction model for main symptom classification, with classification performance evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance analysis was applied to identify variables with the greatest contribution to the prediction result. ResultsThe syndrome transition matrix results indicated that the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group showed a superior effect to the placebo group in improving oral ulcers, sore throat, and overall symptoms, with significant effects observed especially in sore throat and overall symptom analyses (P<0.01). Spearman correlation analysis revealed that several clinical biomarkers positively correlated with "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome and its main symptom improvement, were also called "heat-related biomarkers", including succinic acid, α-ketoglutaric acid, glycine, lactic acid, adenosine monophosphate (AMP), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and so on. Conversely, clinical biomarkers negatively correlated with symptom severity, were also called "heat-clearing related biomarkers" after administration of Huanglian Jiedu Wan, including malic acid, fumaric acid, cis-aconitic acid, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), IL-1β, IL-4, IL-8, succinic acid, and citric acid. The XGBoost classification model using all 52 biomarkers as variables achieved an average test accuracy of 0.754 and an average F1 score of 0.777. Feature importance analysis identified the scores of glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 were the highest in all the variables, with importance scores of 0.081 and 0.080, respectively. After screening out 14 key variables and optimizing the parameters, model performance improved to an average accuracy of 0.758 and an F1 score of 0.798. Feature importance analysis further determined that the glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 showed obvious changes after screening the variables, confirming the good syndrome prediction ability of the model constructed by these key clinical biomarkers. ConclusionThis study systematically elucidates the correlation between syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers of Huanglian Jiedu Wan in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome. An XGBoost classification model based on key clinical biomarkers is successfully established, achieving effective prediction of the symptoms related to the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome such as oral ulcers and sore throat and providing a new insight for objective identification of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes.
3.Clinicopathological features and surgery-related outcomes of duodenal adenocarcinoma: a multicenter retrospective study
Qifeng XIAO ; Xin WU ; Chunhui YUAN ; Zongting GU ; Xiaolong TANG ; Fanbin MENG ; Dong WANG ; Ren LANG ; Gang ZHAI ; Xiaodong TIAN ; Yu ZHANG ; Enhong ZHAO ; Xiaodong ZHAO ; Feng CAO ; Jingyong XU ; Ying XING ; Jishu WEI ; Shanmiao GOU ; Chengfeng WANG ; Jianwei ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2025;47(10):1026-1038
Objective:This multicenter retrospective study aimed to analyze the clinicopathological features of duodenal adenocarcinoma (DA) and identify prognostic factors for postoperative survival.Methods:Demographic characteristics, clinicopathological features, treatment outcomes and survival of DA patients undergoing surgical treatment at 18 Chinese medical centers from January 2012 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.Results:Among the 2 056 DA patients included, 46.8% (963) had extra-ampullary DA (EA-DA), and 53.2% (1 093) had peri-ampullary DA (PA-DA). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates for patients who underwent radical surgery were 93.2%, 71.0%, and 57.2%, respectively. The median overall survival was 76 months, and the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 65 months. No differences in survival were observed between the laparotomy group and minimally invasive surgery (MIS) group either before or after propensity score matching (OS: 76 vs. 75 months before PSM, P=0.986; OS: 75 vs. 75 months after PSM, P=0.602). Furthermore, there were no significant differences between-group in operation time and postoperative complications ( P>0.05). The MIS group experienced less intraoperative blood loss and shorter hospital stays. The multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that advanced age ( HR=1.43,95% CI:1.18-1.73), elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels ( HR=1.24,95% CI:1.02-1.51), perineural invasion ( HR=1.44,95% CI:1.14-1.81), vascular invasion ( HR=1.35,95% CI:1.07-1.71), advanced T stage (T3-4 vs. T1-2: HR=1.86,95% CI:1.49-2.31), regional lymph node metastasis ( HR=1.93,95% CI:1.58-2.36), preoperative biliary drainage ( HR=1.26,95% CI:1.04-1.53), intraoperative blood loss ( HR=1.34,95% CI:1.11-1.62), clinically significant postoperative pancreatic fistulas ( HR=1.53,95% CI:1.12-2.09), and postoperative hemorrhage ( HR=1.62,95% CI:1.14-2.29) were independent risk factors for poor prognosis after surgery (all P<0.05). Conclusions:Radical surgery is associated with favorable overall survival among DA patients, and no difference in survival is observed between EA-DA and PA-DA patients. MIS is a reliable alternative for DA treatment.
4.Downregulation of Neuralized1 in the Hippocampal CA1 Through Reducing CPEB3 Ubiquitination Mediates Synaptic Plasticity Impairment and Cognitive Deficits in Neuropathic Pain.
Yan GAO ; Yiming QIAO ; Xueli WANG ; Manyi ZHU ; Lili YU ; Haozhuang YUAN ; Liren LI ; Nengwei HU ; Ji-Tian XU
Neuroscience Bulletin 2025;41(12):2233-2253
Neuropathic pain is frequently comorbidity with cognitive deficits. Neuralized1 (Neurl1)-mediated ubiquitination of CPEB3 in the hippocampus is critical in learning and memory. However, the role of Neurl1 in the cognitive impairment in neuropathic pain remains elusive. Herein, we found that lumbar 5 spinal nerve ligation (SNL) in male rat-induced neuropathic pain was followed by learning and memory deficits and LTP impairment in the hippocampus. The Neurl1 expression in the hippocampal CA1 was decreased after SNL. And this decrease paralleled the reduction of ubiquitinated-CPEB3 level and reduced production of GluA1 and GluA2. Overexpression of Neurl1 in the CA1 rescued cognitive deficits and LTP impairment, and reversed the reduction of ubiquitinated-CPEB3 level and the decrease of GluA1 and GluA2 production following SNL. Specific knockdown of Neurl1 or CPEB3 in bilateral hippocampal CA1 in naïve rats resulted in cognitive deficits and impairment of synaptic plasticity. The rescued cognitive function and synaptic plasticity by the treatment of overexpression of Neurl1 before SNL were counteracted by the knockdown of CPEB3 in the CA1. Collectively, the above results suggest that the downregulation of Neurl1 through reducing CPEB3 ubiquitination and, in turn, repressing GluA1 and GluA2 production and mediating synaptic plasticity impairment in hippocampal CA1 leads to the genesis of cognitive deficits in neuropathic pain.
Animals
;
Male
;
Neuralgia/metabolism*
;
Rats
;
Down-Regulation/physiology*
;
Ubiquitination/physiology*
;
Neuronal Plasticity/physiology*
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
;
CA1 Region, Hippocampal/metabolism*
;
Cognitive Dysfunction/metabolism*
;
RNA-Binding Proteins/metabolism*
;
Receptors, AMPA/metabolism*
5.Glutamine signaling specifically activates c-Myc and Mcl-1 to facilitate cancer cell proliferation and survival.
Meng WANG ; Fu-Shen GUO ; Dai-Sen HOU ; Hui-Lu ZHANG ; Xiang-Tian CHEN ; Yan-Xin SHEN ; Zi-Fan GUO ; Zhi-Fang ZHENG ; Yu-Peng HU ; Pei-Zhun DU ; Chen-Ji WANG ; Yan LIN ; Yi-Yuan YUAN ; Shi-Min ZHAO ; Wei XU
Protein & Cell 2025;16(11):968-984
Glutamine provides carbon and nitrogen to support the proliferation of cancer cells. However, the precise reason why cancer cells are particularly dependent on glutamine remains unclear. In this study, we report that glutamine modulates the tumor suppressor F-box and WD repeat domain-containing 7 (FBW7) to promote cancer cell proliferation and survival. Specifically, lysine 604 (K604) in the sixth of the 7 substrate-recruiting WD repeats of FBW7 undergoes glutaminylation (Gln-K604) by glutaminyl tRNA synthetase. Gln-K604 inhibits SCFFBW7-mediated degradation of c-Myc and Mcl-1, enhances glutamine utilization, and stimulates nucleotide and DNA biosynthesis through the activation of c-Myc. Additionally, Gln-K604 promotes resistance to apoptosis by activating Mcl-1. In contrast, SIRT1 deglutaminylates Gln-K604, thereby reversing its effects. Cancer cells lacking Gln-K604 exhibit overexpression of c-Myc and Mcl-1 and display resistance to chemotherapy-induced apoptosis. Silencing both c-MYC and MCL-1 in these cells sensitizes them to chemotherapy. These findings indicate that the glutamine-mediated signal via Gln-K604 is a key driver of cancer progression and suggest potential strategies for targeted cancer therapies based on varying Gln-K604 status.
Glutamine/metabolism*
;
Myeloid Cell Leukemia Sequence 1 Protein/genetics*
;
Humans
;
Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-myc/genetics*
;
Cell Proliferation
;
Signal Transduction
;
Neoplasms/pathology*
;
F-Box-WD Repeat-Containing Protein 7/genetics*
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Cell Survival
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Cell Line, Tumor
;
Apoptosis
6.Aldolase A accelerates hepatocarcinogenesis by refactoring c-Jun transcription.
Xin YANG ; Guang-Yuan MA ; Xiao-Qiang LI ; Na TANG ; Yang SUN ; Xiao-Wei HAO ; Ke-Han WU ; Yu-Bo WANG ; Wen TIAN ; Xin FAN ; Zezhi LI ; Caixia FENG ; Xu CHAO ; Yu-Fan WANG ; Yao LIU ; Di LI ; Wei CAO
Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis 2025;15(7):101169-101169
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) expresses abundant glycolytic enzymes and displays comprehensive glucose metabolism reprogramming. Aldolase A (ALDOA) plays a prominent role in glycolysis; however, little is known about its role in HCC development. In the present study, we aim to explore how ALDOA is involved in HCC proliferation. HCC proliferation was markedly suppressed both in vitro and in vivo following ALDOA knockout, which is consistent with ALDOA overexpression encouraging HCC proliferation. Mechanistically, ALDOA knockout partially limits the glycolytic flux in HCC cells. Meanwhile, ALDOA translocated to nuclei and directly interacted with c-Jun to facilitate its Thr93 phosphorylation by P21-activated protein kinase; ALDOA knockout markedly diminished c-Jun Thr93 phosphorylation and then dampened c-Jun transcription function. A crucial site Y364 mutation in ALDOA disrupted its interaction with c-Jun, and Y364S ALDOA expression failed to rescue cell proliferation in ALDOA deletion cells. In HCC patients, the expression level of ALDOA was correlated with the phosphorylation level of c-Jun (Thr93) and poor prognosis. Remarkably, hepatic ALDOA was significantly upregulated in the promotion and progression stages of diethylnitrosamine-induced HCC models, and the knockdown of A ldoa strikingly decreased HCC development in vivo. Our study demonstrated that ALDOA is a vital driver for HCC development by activating c-Jun-mediated oncogene transcription, opening additional avenues for anti-cancer therapies.
7.Morin inhibits ubiquitination degradation of BCL-2 associated agonist of cell death and synergizes with BCL-2 inhibitor in gastric cancer cells.
Yi WANG ; Xiao-Yu SUN ; Fang-Qi MA ; Ming-Ming REN ; Ruo-Han ZHAO ; Meng-Meng QIN ; Xiao-Hong ZHU ; Yan XU ; Ni-da CAO ; Yuan-Yuan CHEN ; Tian-Geng DONG ; Yong-Fu PAN ; Ai-Guang ZHAO
Journal of Integrative Medicine 2025;23(3):320-332
OBJECTIVE:
Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the most common malignancies seen in clinic and requires novel treatment options. Morin is a natural flavonoid extracted from the flower stalk of a highly valuable medicinal plant Prunella vulgaris L., which exhibits an anti-cancer effect in multiple types of tumors. However, the therapeutic effect and underlying mechanism of morin in treating GC remains elusive. The study aims to explore the therapeutic effect and underlying molecular mechanisms of morin in GC.
METHODS:
For in vitro experiments, the proliferation inhibition of morin was measured by cell counting kit-8 assay and colony formation assay in human GC cell line MKN45, human gastric adenocarcinoma cell line AGS, and human gastric epithelial cell line GES-1; for apoptosis analysis, microscopic photography, Western blotting, ubiquitination analysis, quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis, flow cytometry, and RNA interference technology were employed. For in vivo studies, immunohistochemistry, biomedical analysis, and Western blotting were used to assess the efficacy and safety of morin in a xenograft mouse model of GC.
RESULTS:
Morin significantly inhibited the proliferation of GC cells MKN45 and AGS in a dose- and time-dependent manner, but did not inhibit human gastric epithelial cells GES-1. Only the caspase inhibitor Z-VAD-FMK was able to significantly reverse the inhibition of proliferation by morin in both GC cells, suggesting that apoptosis was the main type of cell death during the treatment. Morin induced intrinsic apoptosis in a dose-dependent manner in GC cells, which mainly relied on B cell leukemia/lymphoma 2 (BCL-2) associated agonist of cell death (BAD) but not phorbol-12-myristate-13-acetate-induced protein 1. The upregulation of BAD by morin was due to blocking the ubiquitination degradation of BAD, rather than the transcription regulation and the phosphorylation of BAD. Furthermore, the combination of morin and BCL-2 inhibitor navitoclax (also known as ABT-737) produced a synergistic inhibitory effect in GC cells through amplifying apoptotic signals. In addition, morin treatment significantly suppressed the growth of GC in vivo by upregulating BAD and the subsequent activation of its downstream apoptosis pathway.
CONCLUSION
Morin suppressed GC by inducing apoptosis, which was mainly due to blocking the ubiquitination-based degradation of the pro-apoptotic protein BAD. The combination of morin and the BCL-2 inhibitor ABT-737 synergistically amplified apoptotic signals in GC cells, which may overcome the drug resistance of the BCL-2 inhibitor. These findings indicated that morin was a potent and promising agent for GC treatment. Please cite this article as: Wang Y, Sun XY, Ma FQ, Ren MM, Zhao RH, Qin MM, Zhu XH, Xu Y, Cao ND, Chen YY, Dong TG, Pan YF, Zhao AG. Morin inhibits ubiquitination degradation of BCL-2 associated agonist of cell death and synergizes with BCL-2 inhibitor in gastric cancer cells. J Integr Med. 2025; 23(3): 320-332.
Humans
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Flavonoids/therapeutic use*
;
Stomach Neoplasms/pathology*
;
Animals
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Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-bcl-2/metabolism*
;
Cell Line, Tumor
;
Apoptosis/drug effects*
;
Cell Proliferation/drug effects*
;
Ubiquitination/drug effects*
;
Mice
;
Drug Synergism
;
Mice, Inbred BALB C
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Mice, Nude
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Xenograft Model Antitumor Assays
;
Flavones
8.Paclitaxel anti-cancer therapeutics: from discovery to clinical use.
Haizheng YU ; Fen LAN ; Yuan ZHUANG ; Qizhang LI ; Lianqing ZHANG ; Hongchang TIAN ; Xiao BU ; Ruibing CHEN ; Yingying GAO ; Zhuo WANG ; Lei ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Natural Medicines (English Ed.) 2025;23(7):769-789
Paclitaxel (PTX), a valuable natural product derived from Taxus species, exhibits remarkable anti-cancer properties. It penetrates nanopores in microtubule walls, interacting with tubulin on the lumen surface and disrupting microtubule dynamics, thereby inducing cytotoxic effects in cancer cells. PTX and its derivatives have gained approval for treating various diseases due to their low toxicity, high efficiency, and broad-spectrum application. The widespread success and expanding applications of PTX have led to increased demand, raising concerns about accessibility. Consequently, researchers globally have focused on developing alternative production methods and applying nanocarriers in PTX delivery systems to enhance bioavailability. This review examines the challenges and advancements in PTX sourcing, production, physicochemical properties, anti-cancer mechanisms, clinical applications, trials, and chemo-immunotherapy. It aims to provide a comprehensive reference for the rational development and effective utilization of PTX.
Humans
;
Paclitaxel/pharmacology*
;
Antineoplastic Agents, Phytogenic/pharmacology*
;
Neoplasms/drug therapy*
;
Animals
;
Taxus/chemistry*
9.Laboratory Diagnosis and Molecular Epidemiological Characterization of the First Imported Case of Lassa Fever in China.
Yu Liang FENG ; Wei LI ; Ming Feng JIANG ; Hong Rong ZHONG ; Wei WU ; Lyu Bo TIAN ; Guo CHEN ; Zhen Hua CHEN ; Can LUO ; Rong Mei YUAN ; Xing Yu ZHOU ; Jian Dong LI ; Xiao Rong YANG ; Ming PAN
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(3):279-289
OBJECTIVE:
This study reports the first imported case of Lassa fever (LF) in China. Laboratory detection and molecular epidemiological analysis of the Lassa virus (LASV) from this case offer valuable insights for the prevention and control of LF.
METHODS:
Samples of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), blood, urine, saliva, and environmental materials were collected from the patient and their close contacts for LASV nucleotide detection. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on positive samples to analyze the genetic characteristics of the virus.
RESULTS:
LASV was detected in the patient's CSF, blood, and urine, while all samples from close contacts and the environment tested negative. The virus belongs to the lineage IV strain and shares the highest homology with strains from Sierra Leone. The variability in the glycoprotein complex (GPC) among different strains ranged from 3.9% to 15.1%, higher than previously reported for the seven known lineages. Amino acid mutation analysis revealed multiple mutations within the GPC immunogenic epitopes, increasing strain diversity and potentially impacting immune response.
CONCLUSION
The case was confirmed through nucleotide detection, with no evidence of secondary transmission or viral spread. The LASV strain identified belongs to lineage IV, with broader GPC variability than previously reported. Mutations in the immune-related sites of GPC may affect immune responses, necessitating heightened vigilance regarding the virus.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Genome, Viral
;
Lassa Fever/virology*
;
Lassa virus/classification*
;
Molecular Epidemiology
;
Phylogeny
10.Comparison of small-sample multi-class machine learning models for plasma concentration prediction of valproic acid
Xi CHEN ; Shen’ao YUAN ; Hailing YUAN ; Jie ZHAO ; Peng CHEN ; Chunyan TIAN ; Yi SU ; Yunsong ZHANG ; Yu ZHANG
China Pharmacy 2025;36(11):1399-1404
OBJECTIVE To construct three-class (insufficient, normal, excessive) and two-class (insufficient, normal) models for predicting plasma concentration of valproic acid (VPA), and compare the performance of these two models, with the aim of providing a reference for formulating clinical medication strategies. METHODS The clinical data of 480 patients who received VPA treatment and underwent blood concentration test at the Xi’an International Medical Center Hospital were collected from November 2022 to September 2024 (a total of 695 sets of data). In this study, predictive models were constructed for target variables of three-class and two-class models. Feature ranking and selection were carried out using XGBoost scores. Twelve different machine learning algorithms were used for training and validation, and the performance of the models was evaluated using three indexes: accuracy, F1 score, and the area under the working characteristic curve of the subject (AUC). RESULTS XGBoost feature importance scores revealed that in the three-class model, the importance ranking of kidney disease and electrolyte disorders was higher. However, in the two-class model, the importance ranking of these features significantly decreased, suggesting a close association with the excessive blood concentration of VPA. In the three-class model, Random Forest method performed best, with F1 score of 0.704 0 and AUC of 0.519 3 on the test set; while in the two-class model, CatBoost method performed optimally, with F1 score of 0.785 7 and AUC of 0.819 5 on the test set. CONCLUSIONS The constructed three-class model has the ability to predict excessive VPA blood concentration, but its prediction and model generalization abilities are poor; the constructed two-class model can only perform classification prediction for insufficient and normal blood concentration cases, but its model performance is stronger.

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