1.A Method for Position Correction of Ultrasonic Arrays Used in High-resolution Photoacoustic Tomography
Yang TANG ; Zhan-Jun ZHANG ; Xing HUANG ; Kuan PENG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(3):767-778
ObjectivePhotoacoustic tomography (PAT) holds significant potential for high-resolution deep-tissue imaging. In preclinical research, custom-designed concave arc-shaped ultrasound transducer arrays are often used to maximize the detection aperture. However, manufacturing limitations and assembly tolerances frequently cause the actual physical positions of array elements to deviate from their theoretical design. Additionally, concave arrays are typically covered with an acoustic lens, which introduces a mismatch in the speed of sound between the coupling medium and the lens material. The combination of these geometric and acoustic-phase errors leads to severe image artifacts, reduced contrast, and degraded resolution. This study proposes a systematic two-step calibration strategy to address these issues and substantially improve image quality. MethodsFirst, a high-intensity isotropic photoacoustic point source was constructed using a multi-mode optical fiber coated with carbon nanotubes (CNTs) to acquire high signal-to-noise ratio calibration data. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was employed to accurately determine the time of arrival (ToA) of photoacoustic signals. Subsequently, a geometric calibration algorithm based on nonlinear least-squares (NLS) estimation was developed. This algorithm iteratively solves for the true spatial coordinates of each array element by minimizing the residual between theoretical and measured acoustic path lengths. To further address sound-speed inhomogeneity caused by the acoustic lens, a phase compensation algorithm based on bilinear interpolation was proposed. This algorithm computes a pixel-specific phase delay map across the imaging region and performs point-by-point signal correction during delay-and-sum (DAS) reconstruction. The proposed methods were validated using a custom 96-channel concave arc-shaped array (center frequency: 12 MHz) through both phantom imaging and in vivo mouse tumor models. ResultsPhantom experiments showed that at an imaging depth of14 mm, the reconstruction position deviation of the point source in the uncalibrated system reached up to 1 mm. After applying the combined calibration, the lateral resolution (full width at half maximum, FWHM) at the focal point of the arc array reached 95 μm—representing a 85% reduction compared to the uncalibrated state and a 79% reduction compared to geometric calibration alone without phase compensation. In vivo experiments demonstrated that the calibrated system clearly resolved the microvascular network of subcutaneous tumors in mice. Photoacoustic signals were strictly confined within tumor boundaries delineated by ultrasound imaging (USI), eliminating the vascular spillover artifacts commonly observed in uncalibrated images. Furthermore, after intravenous injection of indocyanine green (ICG), the system successfully detected weak photoacoustic signals at a depth of 5 mm, performing significantly better than the uncalibrated system. ConclusionThe proposed calibration method, which integrates nonlinear least-squares estimation with phase compensation, significantly improves image fidelity and spatial resolution consistency across a wide field of view by correcting systemic geometric errors and acoustic phase aberrations. This approach demonstrates high robustness and provides a reliable technical foundation for the clinical translation of photoacoustic probes with non-standard geometries.
2.Standards for the Application of Hemodynamic Monitoring Technology in Critical Care
Hua ZHAO ; Hongmin ZHANG ; Xin DING ; Huan CHEN ; Jun DUAN ; Wei DU ; Bo TANG ; Yuankai ZHOU ; Dongkai LI ; Xinchen WANG ; Cui WANG ; Gaosheng ZHOU ; Xiaoting WANG
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):73-85
With the rapid advancement of hemodynamic indices and monitoring technologies, their classification methods and application processes have become increasingly complex. Currently, no unified standard hasbeen established, making it difficult to fully meet the clinical requirements for hemodynamic management. To assist in hemodynamic monitoring assessment and therapeutic decision-making in critically ill patients, the Critical Hemodynamic Therapy Collaborative Group, in conjunction with the Critical Ultrasound Study Group, has jointly developed the Standard for the Application of Hemodynamic Monitoring Techniques in Critical Care. The first part of this standard systematically categorizes hemodynamic indicators into flow indicators, pressure and its derivative indicators, and tissue perfusion indicators, while elaborating on the clinical application of each. The second part establishes a standardized clinical implementation pathway for hemodynamic monitoring. It proposes a tiered monitoring strategy-comprising basic, advanced, indication-specific, and special scenario monitoring-tailored to different clinical settings. It emphasizes the central role of critical care ultrasound across all levels of monitoring and establishes hemodynamic assessment standards for organs such as the brain, kidneys, and gastrointestinal tract. This standard aims to provide a unified framework for clinical practice, teaching, training, and research in critical care medicine, thereby promoting standardized development within the discipline.
3.Evaluation of the anticoagulant effect of nafamostat mesylate in continuous veno-venous hemofiltration with different dilution methods for uremic patients
Li SHEN ; Yao ZHANG ; Jun WANG ; Hong ZHU ; Yong QIN ; Yuewu TANG ; Ni DU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(3):350-355
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the anticoagulant efficacy and safety of nafamostat mesylate (NM) in the treatment of uremic patients at high risk of bleeding undergoing continuous veno-venous hemofiltration (CVVH) with different methods (pre- dilution and post-dilution). METHODS A total of 130 uremic patients at high risk of bleeding who underwent CVVH treatment in the nephrology department of Chongqing University Three Gorges Hospital from July 2023 to September 2024 were selected. They were divided into pre-dilution group and post-dilution group according to the random number table method, with 65 cases in each group. Both groups of patients received CVVH treatment under NM anticoagulation. The pre-dilution group adopted the pre-dilution replacement method, while the post-dilution group adopted the post-dilution replacement method. The coagulation, pressure, and usage duration of the filter and dialysis circuit venous reservoirs were compared between the two groups. The changes in prothrombin time (PT), prothrombin time-international normalized ratio (PT-INR), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), and fibrinogen (FIB) in the peripheral venous blood before the heparin pump and after the filter at 1, 4 and 7 h of CVVH treatment, as well as 20 min after the end of treatment, were compared between the two groups. The single-compartment urea clearance rate (spKt/V), β2-microglobulin (β2-MG) clearance rate and the incidence of adverse reactions were duni2007@foxmail.com compared between the two groups. RESULTS Both the pre-dilution and post-dilution groups had 60 patients who completed the study. The incidence of grade Ⅱ-Ⅲ coagulation of the filter and venous reservoirs, as well as the number of patients with transmembrane and venous pressure alarm intervention in the post- dilution group were significantly higher or more than those in the pre-dilution group (P<0.05), while usage time of the filter and the pipeline in the post-dilution group was significantly shorter than that in the pre-dilution group (P<0.05). The APTT values before the heparin pump as well as PT and APTT values after the filter at 1 h, 4 h, and 7 h of CVVH treatment in the post-dilution group were significantly higher than those in the pre-dilution group (P<0.001). There were no significant differences in PT, PT- INR, APTT and FIB between the two groups of patients 20 min after the end of treatment (P>0.05). The spKt/v and β2-MG clearance rates in the post-dilution group were significantly higher than those in the pre-dilution group (P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse reactions between the two groups (P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS When NM is used as an anticoagulant in the CVVH treatment of uremic patients at high risk of bleeding, compared with the pre-dilution treatment method, the post-dilution treatment method has a higher incidence of filter and dialysis tubing venous reservoir, a shorter usage time of the filter and pipeline, and a greater impact on extracorporeal coagulation, but has a higher solute clearance rate. Clinically, different dilution methods can be selected according to the different treatment needs of patients.
4.Traditional Chinese Medicine Alleviates Dry Eye Disease by Regulating Tear Film Homeostasis: A Review
Sainan TIAN ; Bin'an WANG ; Yao CHEN ; Guicheng LIU ; Li TANG ; Pei LIU ; Genyan QIN ; Jun PENG ; Qinghua PENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):172-181
Dry eye (DE) is a prevalent multifactorial disease of the ocular surface, clinically characterized by tear film homeostasis imbalance accompanied by related ocular surface symptoms. Specifically, the tear film is a thin liquid layer of tears covering the cornea and conjunctiva through blinking, while tear film homeostasis serves as the foundation for maintaining normal ocular surface structure and function. Insufficient tear secretion and excessive tear film evaporation lead to tear hyperosmolarity and the production of inflammatory mediators, disrupting tear film homeostasis and subsequently forming DE. Additionally, cascade reactions are triggered, resulting in a "vicious cycle of DE" that exacerbates the disease severity and prolongs its duration. Therefore, for DE treatment, it is crucial to restore tear film homeostasis and terminate this vicious cycle. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), which differentiates and treats DE based on systemic conditions, often achieves favorable therapeutic outcomes, offering additional treatment options for DE. Studies have demonstrated that TCM can alleviate DE by regulating tear film homeostasis and terminating the vicious cycle. This review systematically summarizes recent basic experimental research in China and abroad on TCM in alleviating DE by regulating tear film homeostasis, aiming to provide a theoretical basis for clinical treatment and an insight for research design.
5.Chufeng Yisuntang Ameliorates PM2.5-induced Dry Eye via ROS/p38 MAPK Signaling Pathway
Yuan ZHONG ; Pan ZHAO ; Shi TAN ; Yu TANG ; Dongdong LI ; Lihao CHEN ; Jun PENG ; Qinghua PENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):191-200
ObjectiveTo establish a mouse model of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5)-induced dry eye and investigate whether Chufeng Yisuntang can ameliorate the PM2.5-induced ocular surface damage by regulating the reactive oxygen species (ROS)/p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (p38 MAPK) signaling pathway. MethodsSixty 8-week-old male C57BL/6J mice were used. Ten were randomly selected as the control group. The remaining 50 mice received topical instillation of 1 drop (0.1 mL) of 5 g·L-1 PM2.5 suspension in both eyes, four times daily. Successfully modeled mice were randomized into four groups (n=10): Model, p38 MAPK inhibitor, Chufeng Yisuntang, and combination (Chufeng Yisuntang at 7.3 g·kg-1 + p38 MAPK inhibitor SB203580 at 5 mg·kg-1). Chufeng Yisuntang was administered via gavage, and the inhibitor group via intraperitoneal injection. The control and model groups received equal volumes of distilled water by gavage. All treatments lasted for 4 weeks. General conditions were dynamically observed. Tear secretion, tear film break-up time, and corneal fluorescein staining were assessed. After intervention for 4 weeks, hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining was used to examine the histopathological changes. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was adopted to measure serum levels of ROS, malondialdehyde (MDA), superoxide dismutase (SOD) 1, and SOD2. Western blot and Real-time PCR were employed to determine the protein and gene levels, respectively, of p38 MAPK, B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2), Bcl-2-associated X protein (Bax), and cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase-3 (Caspase-3) in the corneal tissue. ResultsCompared with the control group, the model group exhibited reduced tear secretion volume and tear film breakup time, along with increased corneal fluorescein staining scores (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the Chufeng Yisuntang group, p38 MAPK inhibitor group, and combination group demonstrated increased tear secretion volume and tear film breakup time, along with decreased corneal fluorescein staining scores (P<0.01). HE staining revealed that compared with the control group, the model group exhibited marked increases in corneal epithelial cell layers and epithelial thickness, along with reduced meibomian gland acini and intensely stained, densely packed nuclei around the acini. Compared with the model group, the Chufeng Yisuntang group, p38 MAPK inhibitor group, and combination group showed intact corneal structure, improved cell morphology, and reduced damage severity. ELISA revealed elevated ROS and MDA levels (P<0.01) and decreased SOD1 and SOD2 levels (P<0.01) in the model group compared with the control group. Compared with the model group, Chufeng Yisuntang, p38 MAPK inhibitor, and the combination lowered ROS and MDA levels (P<0.01), while raising SOD1 and SOD2 levels (P<0.05, P<0.01). Western blot revealed that compared with the control group, the model group exhibited increased protein levels of p38 MAPK, Bax, and Caspase-3 (P<0.01) and reduced protein level of Bcl-2 (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, Chufeng Yisuntang, p38 MAPK inhibitor, and the combination down-regulated the protein levels of p38 MAPK, Bax, and Caspase-3 (P<0.01), while up-regulating the protein level of Bcl-2 (P<0.01). Compared with the Chufeng Yisuntang group, the combination group exhibited decreased protein levels of p38 MAPK, Bax, and Caspase-3 (P<0.01) and increased protein level of Bcl-2 (P<0.01). Real-time PCR revealed that compared with the control group, the model group exhibited upregulated mRNA levels of p38 MAPK, Bax, and Caspase-3 (P<0.01), and downregulated mRNA level of Bcl-2 (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, Chufeng Yisuntang, p38 MAPK inhibitor, and the combination down-regulated the mRNA levels of p38 MAPK, Bax, and Caspase-3 (P<0.01), while up-regulating the mRNA level of Bcl-2 (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the Chufeng Yisuntang group, the combination group exhibited decreased mRNA levels of p38 MAPK, Bax, and Caspase-3 expression (P<0.05, P<0.01) and increased mRNA level of Bcl-2 (P<0.01). ConclusionChufeng Yisuntang may partially protect against PM2.5-induced corneal injury by inhibiting the ROS/p38 MAPK pathway, enhancing antioxidant defense, and reducing epithelial apoptosis.
6.Diagnostic value of serum Mac-2 binding protein for the severity of schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis
Jun WU ; Meiqun LUO ; Shuying XIE ; Ronghua ZHU ; Hui XU ; Long TANG ; Fei HU ; Sheng DING
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(1):38-43
Objective To evaluate the value of serum Mac-2 binding protein (M2BP) for assessment of the severity of schisto somiasis-induced liver fibrosis, so as to provide insights into non-invasive diagnosis and disease surveillance of liver fibrosis caused by schistosomiasis. Methods A total of 234 individuals with a history of Schistosoma japonicum infection were sampled from Xinhua Village, Lushan City, Jiangxi Province from 2019 to 2020, and 234 serum samples were collected from all participants. All participants received B-ultrasound examinations of the liver. Serum samples were categorized into four groups (grades 0, Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis groups) according to B-ultrasound examination results, and then, each group was randomly divided into a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve group and an efficacy assessment group at a ratio of 7∶3. Serum M2BP concentration was measured in four groups using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and differences in serum M2BP concentrations were compared with analysis of variance and Spearman correlation analysis. Serum M2BP concentration was subjected to ROC curve analysis among individuals with different grades of schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis in the ROC curve group to determine the optimal diagnostic threshold of M2BP concentration at different fibrosis grades, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the diagnostic performance. The diagnostic accuracy was verified by comparing the accordance rate and Kappa consistency test in the efficacy assessment group. Results Among 234 serum samples, there were 79 samples with grade 0 schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis, 87 samples with Grade Ⅰ, 46 samples with Grade Ⅱ and 22 samples with Grade Ⅲ according to the B-ultrasound examinations. The mean serum M2BP concentrations were (0.40 ± 0.31) [95% confidence interval (CI): (0.33, 0.47)], (0.64 ± 0.48) [95% CI: (0.53, 0.74)], (1.76 ± 0.58) [95% CI: (1.59, 1.93)] μg/mL and (2.56 ± 0.93) [95% CI: (2.14, 2.97)] μg/mL in the four groups, respectively (F = 150.796, P < 0.001), and the severity of schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis significantly positively correlated with serum M2BP concentration (rs = 0.715, P < 0. 001). The sample sizes of grades 0, Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis sera were randomly allocated as follows: 55 versus 24, 61 versus 26, 32 versus 14, and 15 versus 7 in the ROC curve and efficacy assessment groups, respectively, and the serum M2BP concentrations were (0.39 ± 0.29) μg/mL and (0.42 ± 0.36) μg/mL (F = 0.196, P > 0.05), (0.59 ± 0.47) μg/mL and (0.75 ± 0.51) μg/mL (F = 1.967, P > 0.05), (1.73 ± 0.59) μg/mL and (1.85 ± 0.57) μg/mL (F = 0.417, P > 0.05), and (2.46 ± 0.64) μg/mL and (2.76 ± 1.41) μg/mL (F = 0.491, P > 0.05), respectively. ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal diagnostic thresholds of serum M2BP concentration were 0.347 86 μg/mL (AUC = 0.635, P < 0.05), 1.188 83 μg/mL (AUC = 0.938, P < 0.000 1) and 2.021 21 μg/mL (AUC = 0.821, P < 0.000 1) for grade Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis. In addition, the accordance rates between the optimal diagnostic threshold of serum M2BP and B-ultrasound examinations for predicting grade Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ schistosomiasis-induceed liver fibrosis were 69.23%, 85.71% and 71.43% (χ2 = 1.340, P > 0.05), and the overall Kappa consistency test showed moderate consistency [Kappa = 0.608, 95% CI: (0.428, 0.788); Z = 6.609, P < 0.000 1]. Conclusions Serum M2BP may serve as a potential biomarker for assessing moderate to advanced schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis; however, its diagnostic value for early-stage schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis remains limited.
7.GPX3 attenuates ischemia-reperfusion injury in kidney transplantation by inhibiting ROS-mediated NET formation
Jun PEI ; Hongyu TANG ; Moudong WU ; Jinpu PENG ; Nini AN ; Xingyu PAN
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(4):602-609
Objective To investigate the role and potential mechanism of glutathione peroxidase 3 (GPX3) in ischemia-reperfusion injury (IRI) during kidney transplantation. Methods C57BL/6 mice were divided into four groups according to different interventions: sham operation group (Sham group), kidney transplantation group (KT group), kidney transplantation + GPX3 overexpression group (KT+GPX3 group) and kidney transplantation + GPX3 overexpression + reactive oxygen species (ROS) agonist group (KT+GPX3+CADD522 group). Twenty-four hours after model establishment, inferior vena cava blood was collected to detect blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and serum creatinine (Scr). Left renal tissues were harvested for immunofluorescence staining to detect ROS and NADPH oxidase 2 (NOX2). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was performed to measure neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), tumor necrosis factor (TNF) -α and interleukin (IL)-1β. Western blotting was used to detect myeloperoxidase (MPO) and citrullinated histone H3 (CitH3). Results Compared with the Sham group, the expression level of GPX3 was decreased in the KT group; compared with the KT group, GPX3 expression was increased in the KT+GPX3 group; compared with the KT+GPX3 group, GPX3 expression was reduced in the KT+GPX3+CADD522 group (all P<0.05). Compared with the Sham group, the levels of Scr, BUN, NGAL and KIM-1 were elevated in the KT group; compared with the KT group, the above indicators were decreased in the KT+GPX3 group; compared with the KT+GPX3 group, the levels of Scr, BUN, NGAL and KIM-1 were increased in the KT+GPX3+CADD522 group (all P<0.05). Compared with the Sham group, the expression levels of NOX2 and ROS were increased in the KT group; compared with the KT group, NOX2 and ROS levels were decreased in the KT+GPX3 group; compared with the KT+GPX3 group, NOX2 and ROS levels were upregulated in the KT+GPX3+CADD522 group (all P<0.05). Compared with the Sham group, the expression levels of MPO and CitH3 were increased in the KT group; compared with the KT group, MPO and CitH3 levels were decreased in the KT+GPX3 group; compared with the KT+GPX3 group, MPO and CitH3 levels were increased in the KT+GPX3+CADD522 group (all P<0.05). Compared with the Sham group, the expression levels of TNF-α and IL-1β were increased in the KT group; compared with the KT group, TNF-α and IL-1β levels were decreased in the KT+GPX3 group; compared with the KT+GPX3 group, TNF-α and IL-1β levels were increased in the KT+GPX3+CADD522 group (all P<0.05). Conclusions GPX3 may alleviate renal tissue inflammation by inhibiting ROS-mediated neutrophil extracellular trap (NET) formation, thereby attenuating IRI in renal transplantation.
8.Hepatocyte-like cell therapy for end-stage liver disease: From basic science to clinical application
Wenwen Ge ; Zhoucheng Wang ; Yutong Chen ; Xiao Tang ; Zijian Lou ; Jun Chen ; Xiao Xu ; Kai Wang
Liver Research 2026;10(1):10-21
End-stage liver disease (ESLD) covers the end-stage of acute and chronic liver diseases, mainly involving decompensated cirrhosis, various types of liver failure, and advanced liver cancer. Hepatocyte transplantation has shown promise in treating ESLD, but its clinical application is hampered by the shortage of donor hepatocytes. Cell therapy, an emerging effective treatment for ESLD, faces the same limitation due to scarce hepatocyte availability. Hepatocyte-like cells (HLCs), which are terminally differentiated cells, can be induced from both stem cells and somatic cells. As HLCs exhibit the morphology and function of primary hepatocytes, they offer a promising supplementary source of hepatocytes for cell therapy. First, we provide a background for the differentiation and maturation of primary hepatocytes. Subsequently, based on the current insights into the molecular pathways that regulate hepatocyte differentiation in vivo, we describe a strategy for establishing HLC derived from either stem cells or somatic cells. The key characteristics of these HLCs are also detailed. Furthermore, HLC offers therapeutic potential for liver failure, and HLC-based liver organoids and bioartificial liver systems have demonstrated the ability to provide liver functions, offering an innovative approach to treating various types of ESLD. Despite their promise, challenges such as efficiency in differentiation and functional maturation need to be addressed to improve the clinical application of HLCs. This review discusses these advancements and outlines the therapeutic potential and current challenges of HLC therapy for ESLD.
9.Application evaluation of the care-need grading assessment tool for adult with disabilities in welfare institutions
Qi TANG ; Jun LÜ ; Chunhua MA ; Haoying HUANG ; Jiayao SUN ; Ran TAO ; Chunlei LU ; Aihua HUANG
Chinese Journal of Rehabilitation Theory and Practice 2026;32(8):946-958
ObjectiveTo apply and systematically evaluate the care-need grading assessment tool for adults with disabilities in welfare institutions. MethodsFrom June to July, 2025, four disability care institutions in Shanghai were selected, and a total of 1 002 adults with disabilities were assessed using the self-developed care-need grading assessment tool for adults with disabilities in welfare institutions. The application effectiveness of the tool was evaluated by analyzing the classification results of care need grading and the reclassification in grade distribution. The application validity was assessed through score differences across functional dimensions, reduced-dimension clustering scatter plots for each grade, and external variables. The application efficiency was evaluated based on the average assessment duration and learning curves. The application utility value was assessed through the distribution characteristics and mapping relationships of service lists across different grades. ResultsThe distribution across disability levels was 84 in Level 1, 298 in Level 2, 92 in Level 3, 246 in Level 4, and 282 in Level 5, indicating a trend where individuals from higher levels in the original system shifted toward the middle and lower levels of the new system. The tool demonstrated strong discriminatory power across the four functional dimensions (P < 0.001), indicating favorable discriminant validity. The five classified levels exhibited clear clustering boundaries in the reduced-dimension space, reflecting robust structural validity. The classification results were consistent with theoretical expectations regarding external variables, including age, disability type, disability grade, number of comorbidities, and primary clinical diagnoses (P < 0.05), demonstrating sound external validity. The median assessment duration was 5.80 minutes, with a significant learning effect (P = 0.037), showcasing high efficiency. Finally, service lists tailored to different care levels were developed, where service content exhibited graded differences across care levels and accurately mapped the care-need characteristics of each grade, reflecting substantial utility value. ConclusionThis tool can classify the care needs of adults with disabilities into five levels, with sound validity and high assessment efficiency; while the resulting service lists for different care levels can be used to guide practical implementation, which can be used for the graded assessment of care needs among adults with disabilities.
10.Analysis of prediction of incidence and epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou, 2013-2025
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(7):1026-1030
Objective:
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou, so as to provide reference basis for further exploring scientifically effective prevention and control measures.
Methods:
Reported cases of HFMD in children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou City from 2013-2025 were selected from China disease prevention and control information system, and the incidence in different years was analyzed descriptively; the trends of the composition ratio and incidence in various age groups were analyzed by using the Joinpoint regression model, spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed at the district level, and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was applied to predict annual incidence rate for 2026.
Results:
From 2013 to 2025, the average annual reported incidence rate of HFMD among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou was 2 513.98/100 000, showing a fluctuating trend. Peaks of incidence occurred from May to July and from September to October. The male to female ratio was 1.49∶1. The average annual incidence rate was 4 743.99/100 000 in the 0-1 years age group, 3 298.19/100 000 in the 2-5 years age group, and 544.22/ 100 000 in the 6-9 years age group. Joinpoint regression analysis showed a decreasing trend in the proportion of the 0-1 years age group (APC= -6.02 %, t =-3.77) and an increasing trend in the proportion of the 6-9 years age group (APC=16.39%, t =5.67) (both P < 0.05 ). No significant global spatial clustering was observed at the district level; however, local scattered clusters were identified in certain areas. Using the SARIMA(2,0,0)(2,0,0) 12 model, the predicted annual incidence rate of HFMD among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou in 2026 was 2 680.56/100 000.
Conclusions
From 2013 to 2025, the annual incidence rate of HFMD among children aged 0-9 years in Guangzhou exhibited a fluctuating trend; the highest incidence rate is observed in the 0-1 years age group, while the proportion of cases in the 6-9 years age group increase year by year;and local spatial clusters of abnormal distribution are identified. It is essential to enhance risk monitoring and health education in key populations and areas to mitigate the risk of infection in children.


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