OBJECTIVE: To describe survival trends and global patterns of esophageal cancer (EC) using survival data from population-based cancer registries. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, SEER, and SinoMed databases for articles published up to 31 December 2023. Eligible EC survival estimates were evaluated according to country or region, period, sex, age group, pathology, and disease stage. RESULTS: After 2010, Jordan exhibited the highest age-standardized 5-year relative survival rates (RSRs)/net survival rates (NSRs) at 41.1% between 2010 and 2014, while India had the lowest, at 4.1%. Survival rates generally improved with diagnostic age across most countries, with significant increases in South Korea and China, of 12.7% and 10.5% between 2000 and 2017, respectively. Survival was higher among women compared to men, ranging from 0.4%-10.9%. Survival rates for adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma were similar, differing by about 4%. In China, the highest age-standardized RSRs/NSRs was 33.4% between 2015 and 2017. Meanwhile, the lowest was 5.3%, in Qidong (Jiangsu province) between 1992-1996. CONCLUSION Global EC survival rates have improved significantly in recent decades, but substantial geographical, sex, and age disparities still exist. In Asia, squamous cell carcinoma demonstrated superior survival rates compared to adenocarcinoma, while the opposite trend was observed in Western countries. Future research should clarify the prognostic factors influencing EC survival and tailor prevention and screening strategies to the changing EC survival patterns.
Humans ; Esophageal Neoplasms/mortality* ; Registries ; Male ; Female ; Survival Analysis ; Middle Aged ; Survival Rate ; Aged ; Global Health

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic factors of pediatric Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of children with newly diagnosed HL from January 2011 to December 2023 at four hospitals: Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University Zhangzhou Hospital, First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University, and Fujian Children's Hospital. Patients were categorized into low-risk (R1), intermediate-risk (R2), and high-risk (R3) groups based on HL staging and pre-treatment risk factors. The patients received ABVD regimen or Chinese Pediatric HL-2013 regimen chemotherapy. Early treatment response and long-term efficacy were assessed, and prognostic factors were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The overall complete response (CR) rates after 2 and 4 cycles of chemotherapy were 42% and 68%, respectively. Compared with the ABVD regimen group, patients treated with the HL-2013 regimen in the R1 group showed significantly higher CR rates after both 2 and 4 cycles (P<0.05). However, no statistically significant differences in CR rates were observed between the two regimens in the R2 and R3 groups (P>0.05). The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) rate, overall survival rate, and freedom from treatment failure rate were 83%±4%, 97%±2%, and 88%±4%, respectively. Cox analysis indicated that the presence of a large tumor mass at diagnosis and failure to achieve CR after 4 cycles of chemotherapy were independent risk factors for lower EFS rates (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS Pediatric HL generally has a favorable prognosis. The presence of a large tumor mass at diagnosis and failure to achieve CR after 4 cycles of chemotherapy indicate poor prognosis.
Humans ; Hodgkin Disease/pathology* ; Male ; Child ; Female ; Adolescent ; Retrospective Studies ; Child, Preschool ; Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use* ; Prognosis ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Survival Analysis ; Infant

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the gene mutation characteristics and survival time of patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) based on next-generation sequencing(NGS) gene detection. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 92 patients with AML (non APL) admitted to our hospital from January 2018 to May 2022. AML related genes tested were using NGS, the mutation characteristics and survival time of AML patients were analyzed. RESULTS: Among the 92 patients, 41 were males and 51 were females. A total of 38 types of gene mutations were detected. Six-two patients carried at least one gere mutation, while no gene mutations were detected in 30 patients. In the group with favourable prognosis (n =14), the frequencies of higher gene mutations were NRAS, KIT (21.43%, n =3), KRAS (14.29%, n =2). In the group with intermediate prognosis (n =64), the gene mutation frequencies from high to low were DNMT3A (18.75%, n =12), NPM1 (17.19%, n =11), IDH2, FLT3-ITD, CEBPA (12.50%, n =8), TET2 (10.94%, n =7). In the poor prognosis group (n =14), ASXL1, TP53, EZH2, NRAS had higher gene mutation frequency than others(14.29 %, n =2 ). Statistical analysis revealed that KIT had a relative hotspot of mutations in the intermediate-risk group, and DNMT3A had a relative hotspot of mutations in the high-risk group (P < 0.05). The correlation analysis of genes with high mutation rates in different prognostic groups, such as NRAS, KIT, IDH2, DNMT3A, NPM1, and FLT3-ITD, with prognosis found that KIT was a factor affecting OS (P < 0.05), while no significant differences were observed for the others(P >0.05). CONCLUSION The frequency of gene mutations is high in AML patients, 67.4% of the patients carried at least one gene mutation. The mutation frequency varies among different genes in patients with different karyotypes, and there are obvious dominant mutations. KIT and DNMT3A can be used as factors for evaluating the prognosis of AML.
Humans ; Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/genetics* ; Nucleophosmin ; Mutation ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies ; Male ; Female ; High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing ; Middle Aged ; DNA Methyltransferase 3A ; Adult ; Aged ; Survival Analysis ; Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-kit/genetics*

Background: Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in children under five years remains a major global health concern. It carries a burden to the overall health of a child, contributes to mortality, and adds financial strain to the family and the hospital. The Philippine Integrated Management of Acute Malnutrition was established to address acute malnutrition in Filipino children. Objective: This study aimed to determine the factors affecting survival of patients admitted at Bicol Regional Training and Teaching Hospital (BRTTH) In-patient Therapeutic Care (ITC). Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study design utilizing survival analysis. Accrual period was from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018. Follow-up ended on March 31, 2019. There were 154 admissions and excluded 17 missing charts. Survival analysis was done utilizing STATA 14. Results: The prevalence of SAM requiring ITC admission was 3.0 percent. Majority belonged to 6-59 months of age (63%), with equal predilection for both sexes (1:1) and 71% came from the home province, Albay. Most of patients’ caretakers had middle educational attainment. Sixty-eight percent (68%) were new patients, 16% readmitted, 15% transferred from the Out-patient Therapeutic Care (OTC) and <1% relapsed. The top three most common complications and co-morbidities include: pneumonia, low electrolytes, and fever. Sixty-three percent (63%) of patients at the ITC had a desirable treatment outcome, of which, 8% were cured and 55% transferred to OTC. Undesirable outcomes accounted for 37% of the cases which included non-cured, defaulter, and died at 12%, 8%, and 17%, respectively. The risk of dying was higher in SAM patients with parents having middle and low educational attainment as compared to those with high educational attainment (2-5 folds to 100-200 folds). SAM patients presenting with hypovolemic shock were likely to die by 1.5-19 times (1.5-19x) as compared to those without. SAM patients with malignancy were more likely to die 4-44 folds as compared to patients without malignancy. Conclusion and Recommendations Educational attainment of parents, malignancy, and hypovolemic shock were significant predictors of mortality. We recommend prompt intervention by educating families, strengthen policies targeting socio-economic determinants, capacitate medical staff, refine current clinical practice guidelines and treatment pathways to reduce the number of children who die from severe acute malnutrition.
Severe Acute Malnutrition ; Survival Analysis

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity and effectiveness of parameter estimation using a time-dependent Weibull proportional hazards model for survival analysis containing partly interval censored data and explore the impact of different covariates on the results of analysis. METHODS: We established a time-dependent Weibull proportional hazards model using the Weibull distribution as the baseline hazard function of the model which incorporated time-varying covariates. Maximum likelihood estimation was employed to estimate the model parameters, which were obtained by optimization of the likelihood function. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Numerical simulation results showed that with higher proportions of precise observations across different sample sizes and parameter settings, the proposed model resulted in improved accuracy of parameter estimation with coverage probabilities approximating the theoretical expectation of 95%. As the sample sizes increased, the parameter biases of the model tended to decrease. Experiments with empirical data further validated the effectiveness of the model. Compared with the failure time data for each precisely observed individual, additional interval-censored data helped to obtain more effective estimates of the regression parameters. Comparison with the Cox model that included time-varying covariates further demonstrated the effectiveness of the time-dependent Weibull proportional hazards model for parameter estimation in survival analysis with partly interval censored data.
Proportional Hazards Models ; Survival Analysis ; Likelihood Functions ; Humans ; Computer Simulation ; Time Factors

OBJECTIVE: To study the prognostic value of LPCAT1 in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). METHODS: TaqMan-based reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) was used to detect relative expression of LPCAT1 in 214 newly diagnosed adult AML patients and 24 normal controls. Survival functions were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and were compared by the Log-rank test. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to identify prognostic factors. RESULTS: The expression level of LPCAT1 in adult AML was 34.37%(1.83%-392.63%), which was significantly lower than 92.81%(2.60%-325.84%) of normal controls (P<0.001). The prognostic significance of LPCAT1 was evaluated in 171 non-acute promyelocytic leukemia patients with complete clinical information and prognostic data. Survival analysis showed that the expression level of LPCAT1 had no significant effect on the prognosis of the whole cohort. However, in AML patients with FAB subtype M2 (AML-M2), the 2-year relapse-free survival (RFS) rate of patients with low LPCAT1 expression was 35.4%(95%CI: 0.107-0.601), which was significantly lower than 79.2%(95%CI: 0.627-0.957) of patients with high LPCAT1 expression (P=0.012). Multivariate analysis showed that low expression of LPCAT1 was an independent risk factor for RFS of AML-M2 patients (HR=0.355, 95%CI: 0.126-0.966, P=0.049). CONCLUSION In adult AML patients LPCAT1 shows low expression. Low LPCAT1 expression is an independent risk factor for RFS in M2-AML patients.
Humans ; Adult ; Prognosis ; Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/metabolism* ; Survival Analysis ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk Factors ; 1-Acylglycerophosphocholine O-Acyltransferase

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing tumor-specific survival of early-onset locally advanced rectal cancer. Methods: All-age patients with primary locally advanced rectal cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2010 to 2019) were included in this study. Early- and late-onset locally advanced rectal cancer was defined according to age of 50 years at diagnosis. Early-onset locally advanced rectal cancer was divided into five age groups for subgroup analyses. Age, sex, tumor-specific survival time and survival status of patients at diagnosis, pathological grade, TNM stage, perineural invasion, tumor deposits, tumor size, pretreatment CEA , radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and number of lymph node dissections were included. Progression-free survival (PFS) was analyzed and compared between patients with early- and late-onset rectal cancer. Results: A total of 5,048 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer were included in the study (aged 27-70 years): 1,290 (25.55%) patients with early-onset rectal cancer and 3,758 (74.45%) patients with late-onset rectal cancer. Patients with early-onset rectal cancer had a higher rate of perineural invasion (P<0.001), more positive lymph nodes dissected (P<0.001), higher positive lymph node ratios (P<0.001), and a higher proportion receiving preoperative radiotherapy (P=0.002). Patients with early-onset rectal cancer had slightly better short-term survival than those with late-onset rectal cancer (median (IQR ): 54 (33-83) vs 50 (31-79) months, χ²=5.192, P=0.023). Multivariate Cox regression for all patients with locally advanced rectal cancer showed that age (P=0.008), grade of tumor differentiation (P=0.002), pretreatment CEA (P=0.008), perineural invasion (P=0.021), positive number (P=0.004) and positive ratio (P=0.001) of dissected lymph nodes, and sequence of surgery and radiotherapy (P=0.005) influenced PFS. This suggests that the Cox regression results for all patients may not be applicable to patients with early-onset cancer. Cox analysis showed tumor differentiation grade (patients with low differentiation had a higher risk of death, P=0.027), TNM stage (stage III patients had a higher risk of death, P=0.025), T stage (higher risk of death in stage T4, P<0.001), pretreatment CEA (P=0.002), perineural invasion (P<0.001), tumor deposits (P=0.005), number of dissected lymph nodes (patients with removal of 12-20 lymph nodes had a lower risk of death, P<0.001), and positive number of dissected lymph nodes (P<0.001) were independent factors influencing PFS of patients with early-onset locally advanced rectal cancer. Conclusion: Patients with early-onset locally advanced rectal cancer were more likely to have adverse prognostic factors, but an adequate number of lymph node dissections (12-20) resulted in better survival outcomes.
Humans ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies ; Neoplasm Staging ; Extranodal Extension/pathology* ; Survival Analysis ; Rectal Neoplasms/surgery* ; Lymph Nodes/pathology*

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive ability of two extended Cox models in nonlinear survival data analysis. METHODS: Through Monte Carlo simulation and empirical study and with the conventional Cox Proportional Hazards model and Random Survival Forests as the reference models, we compared restricted cubic spline Cox model (Cox_RCS) and DeepSurv neural network Cox model (Cox_DNN) for their prediction ability in nonlinear survival data analysis. Concordance index was used to evaluate the differentiation of the prediction results (a larger concordance index indicates a better prediction ability of the model). Integrated Brier Score was used to evaluate the calibration degree of the prediction (a smaller index indicates a better prediction ability). RESULTS: For data that met requirement of the proportion risk, the Cox_RCS model had the best prediction ability regardless of the sample size or deletion rate. For data that failed to meet the proportion risk, the prediction ability of Cox_DNN was optimal for a large sample size (≥500) with a low deletion (< 40%); the prediction ability of Cox_RCS was superior to those of other models in all other scenarios. For example data, the Cox_RCS model showed the best performance. CONCLUSION In analysis of nonlinear low maintenance data, Cox_RCS and Cox_DNN have their respective advantages and disadvantages in prediction. The conventional survival analysis methods are not inferior to machine learning or deep learning methods under certain conditions.
Proportional Hazards Models ; Survival Analysis ; Calibration ; Computer Simulation ; Data Analysis

Objective: To report the long-term survival of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients treated with radical nephrectomy in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical, pathological and follow-up records of 1 367 non-metastatic RCC patients treated with radical nephrectomy from 1999 to 2020 in this center. The primary endpoint of this study was overall survival rate. Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and group differences were compared through Log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were fit to determine the clinical and pathological features associated with overall survival rate. Results: A total of 1 367 patients treated with radical nephrectomy with complete follow-up data were included in the study. The median follow-up time was 52.6 months, and 1 100 patients survived and 267 died, with the median time to overall survival not yet reached. The 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates were 82.8% and 74.9%, respectively. The 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates of Leibovich low-risk patients were 93.3% and 88.2%, respectively; of Leibovich intermediate-risk patients were 82.2% and 72.3%, respectively; and of Leibovich high-risk patients were 50.5% and 30.2%, respectively. There were significant differences in the long-term survival among the three groups (P<0.001). The 10-year overall survival rates for patients with pT1, pT2, pT3 and pT4 RCC were 83.2%, 73.6%, 55.0% and 31.4%, respectively. There were significant differences among pT1, pT2, pT3 and pT4 patients(P<0.001). The 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates of patients with lymph node metastasis were 48.5% and 35.6%, respectively, and those of patients without lymph node metastasis were 85.1% and 77.5%, respectively. There was significant difference in the long-term survival between patients with lymph node metastasis and without lymph node metastasis. The 10-year overall survival rate was 96.2% for nuclear Grade 1, 81.6% for nuclear Grade 2, 60.5% for nuclear Grade 3, and 43.4% for nuclear Grade 4 patients. The difference was statistically significant. There was no significant difference in the long-term survival between patients with localized renal cancer (pT1-2N0M0) who underwent open surgery and minimally invasive surgery (10-year overall survival rate 80.5% vs 85.6%, P=0.160). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that age≥55 years (HR=2.11, 95% CI: 1.50-2.96, P<0.001), T stage(T3+ T4 vs T1a: HR=2.37, 95% CI: 1.26-4.46, P=0.008), local lymph node metastasis (HR=3.04, 95%CI: 1.81-5.09, P<0.001), nuclear grade (G3-G4 vs G1: HR=4.21, 95%CI: 1.51-11.75, P=0.006), tumor necrosis (HR=1.66, 95% CI: 1.17-2.37, P=0.005), sarcomatoid differentiation (HR=2.39, 95% CI: 1.31-4.35, P=0.005) and BMI≥24kg/m(2) (HR=0.56, 95%CI: 0.39-0.80, P=0.001) were independent factors affecting long-term survival after radical nephrectomy. Conclusions: The long-term survival of radical nephrectomy in patients with renal cell carcinoma is satisfactory. Advanced age, higher pathological stage and grade, tumor necrosis and sarcomatoid differentiation were the main adverse factors affecting the prognosis of patients. Higher body mass index was a protective factor for the prognosis of patients.
Humans ; Middle Aged ; Carcinoma, Renal Cell/secondary* ; Lymphatic Metastasis ; Retrospective Studies ; Neoplasm Staging ; Kidney Neoplasms/pathology* ; Prognosis ; Nephrectomy ; Survival Analysis ; Necrosis/surgery* ; Survival Rate

Objective: To analyze the survival of newly diagnosed malignant tumors in cancer registration areas of Hubei Province from 2013 to 2015. Methods: From January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015, all newly diagnosed malignant tumors were collected from cancer registration areas in Hubei Province, and patients were followed up using a combination of active and passive methods. Cancer survival was analyzed using the strs package in Stata software. Observed and expected survival were calculated using the life table and Ederer Ⅱ methods, and the difference in survival rate of patients with different sex, age, urban and rural areas and different cancer species was compared. Results: From 2013 to 2015, 83 987 new malignant tumors were diagnosed in cancer registration areas in Hubei Province, including 45 742 males (54.46%) and 38245 females (45.54%). The overall 5-year relative survival rate was 41.46%, 34.43% for men and 49.63% for women. With the increase of age, the observed survival rate and relative survival rate of patients of different genders showed a decreasing trend. The 5-year relative survival rate of patients with malignant tumors was 47.58% in urban areas and 26.58% in rural areas. The observed survival rate and relative survival rate in rural areas were significantly lower than those in urban areas. The overall 5-year relative survival rates for common malignancies were 20.61% for lung cancer, 15.36% for liver cancer, 22.89% for esophageal cancer, 34.92% for gastric cancer, and 54.87% for colorectal cancer. In addition, the 5-year relative survival rates of common malignant tumors in women were 78.65% for breast cancer and 52.55% for cervical cancer. Conclusions: In Hubei Province, the survival rate of malignant tumors is different among different genders, regions, age groups and cancer species. Prevention and treatment and health education should be strengthened for malignant tumor patients in rural areas and those with high incidence and low survival rate such as liver cancer and lung cancer, and relevant strategies should be formulated according to the gender and age distribution characteristics of different cancer species.
Humans ; Female ; Male ; Liver Neoplasms ; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Lung Neoplasms ; China/epidemiology* ; Urban Population ; Incidence ; Survival Analysis ; Rural Population ; Registries