1.Analysis of Chronic Gouty Arthritis Animal Models Based on Clinical Characteristics of Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine
Yan XIAO ; Siyuan LIN ; Fan YANG ; Qianglong CHEN ; Xiaohua CHEN ; Meiling WANG ; Zhen ZHANG ; Jiali LUO ; Youxin SU ; Jiemei GUO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):84-92
ObjectiveBased on the clinical characteristics of chronic gouty arthritis (CGA) in both traditional Chinese and western medicine, this study aims to systematically evaluate the clinical concordance of existing CGA animal models, providing recommendations for establishing animal models that align with the pathological characteristics of CGA and the manifestations of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes. MethodsBy comprehensively retrieving Chinese and international databases such as China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, VIP Chinese Science and Technology Periodical Database (VIP), and PubMed, all relevant literature on CGA animal models was collected. Based on the guidelines, the diagnostic criteria of both traditional Chinese and western medicine were summarized and organized. The evaluation indicators for the CGA model were constructed with reference to existing evaluation modes, and the CGA animal models were analyzed to systematically evaluate the clinical concordance of existing models. ResultsThe current methods used to construct CGA animal models mainly include monosodium urate crystal induction, high-protein diet induction (poultry lack urate oxidase), and high-fat diet combined with urate oxidase inhibitors and joint injection. Based on 11 pieces of included literature, the traditional Chinese and western medicine scoring data of each model were extracted, and the average scoring values of all models were ultimately calculated. The results show that the average clinical concordances of existing CGA animal models in both traditional Chinese and western medicine are 43.33% and 64.44%, respectively. Among them, the model with the highest clinical concordance rate is the one with a high-fat diet combined with potassium oxonate to induce hyperuricemia plus joint injection, achieving 83.33% clinical concordance in western medicine and 60% in traditional Chinese medicine. This model aligns well with the pathogenic characteristics and pathological changes of clinical CGA. ConclusionAlthough current CGA animal models can simulate some pathological characteristics of CGA, they struggle to comprehensively reflect the complex pathological processes of CGA and the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes. Therefore, in the future, it is necessary to establish the CGA animal models that incorporate the clinical disease and syndrome characteristics of traditional Chinese and western medicine and formulate the uniform model evaluation criteria, providing more precise tools for CGA mechanism research and the development of traditional Chinese medicine.
2.Qualitative study on the process evaluation of tobacco control intervention in junior high school
LIU Wanqi, CAO Yuan, SU Qi, LUO Chuning, ZENG Xinying, LIU Ying, LIU Fen, LIU Shiwei
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(2):183-188
Objective:
To evaluate the implementation process of a school-family collaborative "online+offline" tobacco control intervention program in junior high school in Beijing and to explore the execution status, influencing factors and sustainability potential of the intervention, so as to provide evidence for optimizing youth tobacco control strategies.
Methods:
In November 2024, using the random number table method, four first year junior high school classes were selected from three schools each in Fengtai District, Tongzhou District, and Fangshan District of Beijing. One class served as the control group, while the other three classes were designated as intervention groups (one each for online intervention, offline intervention, and combined online offline intervention). The control group received only conventional education.The online intervention group was engaged in WeChat push interventions, including watching micro videos, viewing promotional materials, participating in online quizzes and mini games; the offline intervention group attended knowledge lectures, played peer games, and participated in offline knowledge competitions; the combined online offline intervention group integrated all the aforementioned online and offline intervention measures. The intervention period was from November 2024 to June 2025, spanning a total of 7 months. Based on the Practical, Robust Implementation and Sustainability Model(PRISM) framework, a qualitative research design was employed to conduct semi structured interviews with 48 participants (12 in each of the intervention groups and 12 organizational staff members) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 3 districts and 3 sampled schools. The interview outlines were designed according to the intervention plan. Data was managed using Nvivo 12.0 software and analyzed following Colaizzi s seven step phenomenological analysis method. Theoretical saturation was assessed using a reserved subset of transcripts.
Results:
Four core themes were identified in the tobacco control intervention process. Overall fidelity of intervention implementation was largely consistent with the original plan, and students showed strong willingness and positive evaluations toward interactive formats such as knowledge contests and peer games, though occasional breakdowns in school-family communication and blurred boundaries between online and offline components were observed; the participants showed a polarized response in terms of satisfaction and participation, most students and parents recognized the significance of the activity, and some parents observed a reduction in smoking behavior; the implementation of internal tobacco control policies in the school was strict, and the atmosphere was favorable, but there was still room for improvement, such as the scarcity of community tobacco control activities and the difficulty in implementing smoke free units; implementation and sustainability infrastructure were preliminarily established, such as through homeroom teacher supervision and training student assistants to assisted in activities, while the sustainability support system required further refinement.
Conclusion
The school-family collaborative "online+offline" tobacco control intervention has demonstrated significant positive effects, but further optimization of activity design, enhancement of community reward mechanisms, and standardized training are required to improve the efficacy and sustainability of the intervention.
3.Development of a Diagnostic Scale for Qi-Yin Deficiency with Blood Stasis Syndrome in Diabetic Macrovascular Disease
Qingzhi LIANG ; Ting LUO ; Yi SU ; Xiaoqin LIU ; Hong GAO ; Hongyan XIE ; Chunguang XIE
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(11):225-234
ObjectiveTo construct a standardized diagnostic scale for Qi-Yin deficiency with blood stasis syndrome in diabetic macrovascular disease. MethodsLiterature related to Qi-Yin deficiency with blood stasis syndrome in diabetic macrovascular disease was retrieved from CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang databases. Diagnostic information from four diagnostic methods was extracted and standardized, with items having a frequency of ≥15 included in the item pool. A three-round Delphi expert consultation was conducted, screening items using support degree, mean score, rank sum, and coefficient of variation. Item weights were determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), gactor analysis (FA), and combined weighting method (CWM). The optimal weighting method was selected by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The Youden index was calculated to establish the diagnostic cutoff value, which was proportionally scaled. ResultsA total of 102 studies were included. Thirty-five items were incorporated into the item pool. The authority coefficients for the three Delphi rounds were 0.82, 0.85, and 0.86, with coordination coefficients of 0.648, 0.538, and 0.506, respectively. Fifteen items were retained after screening. ROC curve analysis showed the AUC ranking as FA > CWM > AHP. The maximum Youden index was 0.814, corresponding to a diagnostic cutoff of 8.361 (scaled to 40 points). The final scale adopted a structured diagnostic framework: the symptom dimension requires at least 2 items, and the tongue or pulse dimension requires at least 1 category. ConclusionThis study developed a standardized diagnostic scale for Qi-Yin deficiency with blood stasis syndrome in diabetic macrovascular disease. Core items were screened via the Delphi method, with factor analysis identified as the optimal weighting method through AUC comparison. The diagnostic threshold (40 points) and structured diagnostic framework provide a quantitatively clear, clinically practical tool.
4.Analysis on Characteristics and Prescriptions of Chinese Patent Medicines for Functional Diarrhea on Market
Shuangfei DENG ; Siyu LI ; Changyue SONG ; Caiyu LIU ; Daiyue DING ; Xiaohui SU ; Xiaoqin LUO ; Haiyu ZHAO ; Xiangying KONG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(11):261-268
ObjectiveThis study focused on the marketed Chinese patent medicines for the treatment of Functional Diarrhea (FDr) in China and their prescription characteristics, in order to provide support for the clinical application and research and development of anti-FDr Chinese patent medicines. MethodsCollect the information of Chinese patent medicines that have been marketed to treat FDr, use Microsoft Excel 2021 software to conduct preliminary data collation and statistical analysis, and use the ancient and modern medical record cloud platform (V2.3.9) to analyze the standardized Chinese patent medicine prescriptions from the aspects of drug nature and taste, medication characteristics and prescription rules. Results147 kinds of FDr Chinese patent medicines were included in this study. There are a total of 40 varieties of FDr Chinese patent medicines suitable for children; The distribution of dosage forms is mainly pills, tablets, and capsules. 110 prescriptions were screened, among which the proportion of Chinese patent medicines for the treatment of spleen deficiency syndrome was the highest; The top three drug use frequency were licorice, Atractylodes macrocephala, and Poria cocos; The medicinal properties are mainly warm and flat, and the medicinal taste is mostly pungent, sweet and bitter, and most of them belong to the two meridians of the spleen and stomach; The association rules analysis obtains 20 strong association pairing sets; Three drug combinations were obtained by cluster analysis. ConclusionFDr Chinese patent medicine shows unique value in clinical application, especially in the field of children. However, there are still problems such as strong professionalism in the indication expression of drug instructions, limited coverage of the medical insurance catalog, and lack of high-level evidence-based medicine and pharmacoeconomic evidence. To this end, in the future, efforts should be made to build a multi-level evidence-based evidence system, improve medication compliance, and deepen research on syndrome-based medication laws, so as to enhance the clinical application value and scientific connotation of FDr Chinese patent medicines.
5.Disease burden and changing trends of bladder cancer in China and globally in 1992 - 2021
Zhengnan LI ; Zhuang LI ; Yuanyuan LUO ; Bo YU ; Hao SU ; GuangYong CAO ; Kai YIN ; Dongbo YUAN ; Jianguo ZHU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(3):8-13
Objective To analyze the disease burden and trends of bladder cancer in China and globally from 1992 to 2021. Methods Using the GBD 2021 database, the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of bladder cancer in China and globally from 1992–2021 were analyzed. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using Joinpoint regression. Subgroup analyses by sex and age were conducted, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for the next 15 years. Results In 2021, China reported 106 000 new cases (ASIR: 5.14/100 000), 571 000 prevalent cases (age-standardized prevalence rate, ASPR: 26.61/100 000), 43 000 deaths (ASMR: 2.34/100 000), and a DALY rate of 45.31/100 000. From 1992–2021, China showed upward trends in ASIR and ASPR but declines in ASMR and DALYs, while global ASIR, ASMR, and DALYs decreased overall with slow ASPR growth. The peak cases in China and globally were both concentrated in the 65-79 age group, with a significantly higher burden on males than females. In China, smoking-related ASMR and ASDR exceeded global averages and rose, whereas high glucose-related indexes were lower and declined. Projections for 2021–2036 indicated that the global incidence and mortality rates would be rising, but ASIR/ASPR would be declining, while in China, the incidence rate would continue to rise, and the mortality rate will stabilize, with a significant increase in ASIR and a gradual decrease in ASPR. Conclusion From 1992 to 2021, the incidence of bladder cancer in China has shown a continuous upward trend and is projected to persist in the future, with significant gender and age differences. Particular attention should be given to elderly males aged 85-89. The disease burden of bladder cancer attributable to smoking continues to rise, highlighting the urgent need to strengthen tobacco control policies.
6.Establishment and Evaluation of Diabetic Macrovascular Atherosclerosis Model with Qi and Yin Deficiency Syndrome
Ting LUO ; Qingzhi LIANG ; Xi PENG ; Yi SU ; Hongyan XIE ; Chunguang XIE
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(13):86-98
ObjectiveTo explore the establishment of a rat model of diabetic macrovascular atherosclerosis (DMA) with Qi and Yin deficiency syndrome induced by high-fat diet, streptozotocin (STZ), and Yin-depleting herbs, and to evaluate its biological characteristics. MethodsForty SD rats were randomly divided into a blank group (n=10) and a modeling group (n=30). Except for the blank group, rats in the model group were fed a high-fat diet for 4 weeks, followed by intraperitoneal injection of STZ (30 mg·kg-1) to establish a diabetic model. Twenty-four successfully modeled diabetic rats were randomly divided into a model group (n=7), a Qi and Yin deficiency syndrome group (n=8), and a counter-syndrome group (n=9). Except for the model group, rats received intragastric administration of Yin-depleting herbs (1.2 g·kg-1) for 8 weeks. The counter-syndrome group was further treated with Shenqi compound formula (1.69 g·kg-1) for an additional 8 weeks. General condition and body weight were recorded, and syndrome-related indicators were assessed, including precordial temperature, skin moisture content, grip strength, open-field test performance, and tongue appearance. Serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), endothelin-1 (ET-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1), insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), and monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Fasting blood glucose, blood lipids, hemorheological parameters, and coagulation function were analyzed using an automatic biochemical analyzer. Vascular ultrasound and hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining were used to evaluate vascular lesions. ResultsIn terms of syndrome manifestations, compared with the blank group, body weight increased rapidly during the first 5 weeks in the model, Qi and Yin deficiency, and counter-syndrome groups. After STZ injection combined with Yin-depleting herbal administration at week 5, body weight decreased significantly (P<0.01) and continued to decline until the end of the experiment. Rats exhibited decreased activity, irritability, coarse and yellowish fur with obvious shedding, polydipsia, polyphagia, frequent urination, and dry stools, which were most pronounced in the Qi and Yin deficiency group. Grip strength decreased, peak activity time occurred earlier, total distance in the open-field test was reduced, and residence time was prolonged. Precordial temperature decreased (P<0.01), while paw temperature increased (P<0.05), and skin moisture and oil content were reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01). In terms of disease-related indicators, compared with the blank group, fasting blood glucose was significantly increased (>16.7 mmol·L-1) in the model and Qi and Yin deficiency groups, and blood lipid levels were significantly elevated (P<0.05). Vascular-related factors ET-1, MCP-1, VCAM-1, and VEGF were significantly increased (P<0.05,P<0.01), while IGF-1 was significantly decreased (P<0.01). Pathological examination of the aortic valve showed valvular thickening and structural disorganization. Carotid artery examination revealed discontinuity of the intima, foam cell accumulation beneath the intima, disordered smooth muscle arrangement, and widened intercellular spaces. Compared with the model group, ET-1, MCP-1, and VEGF levels were significantly decreased in both the Qi and Yin deficiency group and the counter-syndrome group. The reductions in ET-1 and MCP-1 were more pronounced in the Qi and Yin deficiency group (P<0.01), while the decrease in VCAM-1 was more significant in the counter-syndrome group (P<0.05). Compared with the blank group, the Qi and Yin deficiency group showed significantly prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), thrombin time (TT), and prothrombin time (PT) (P<0.01). The erythrocyte deformability index (TK), erythrocyte sedimentation rate, erythrocyte electrophoresis index, and whole blood low-shear viscosity all showed increasing trends. Vascular ultrasound revealed reduced arterial blood flow velocity, increased vascular resistance, and intimal thickening without plaque formation. The aortic intima showed no obvious overall thickening, with only occasional localized thickening and foam cell presence, and carotid artery injury was observed. ConclusionA rat model of DMA with Qi and Yin deficiency syndrome was successfully established using high-fat diet feeding combined with STZ injection and Yin-depleting herbal administration. Shenqi compound formula effectively alleviated Qi and Yin deficiency syndrome, regulated glucose and lipid metabolism, improved hemorheological and coagulation function, reduced vascular lesion severity, and demonstrated potential for early prevention and treatment of DMA.
7.Optimization of purification process and component analysis of alkaloids from Zanthoxylum bungeanum Maxim
Heying YANG ; Caiping LUO ; Ting PENG ; Wenyi LIANG ; Songzhang SHEN ; Juan SU
Journal of Pharmaceutical Practice and Service 2025;43(2):75-81
Objective To optimize the process conditions and analyze the components of alkaloids from Zanthoxylum bungeanum Maxim(Z. bungeanum)using macroporous resin. Methods Combining single factor tests and orthogonal tests, the content of hydroxy-α-sanshool(HAS)and hydroxy-β-sanshool(HBS)were considered as indexes to determine the best process parameters. Ultra-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole tandem time-of-flight mass spectrometry(UPLC-Q-TOF-MSE)was used to identify the structures of alkaloids. Results The optimal conditions were Mitsubishi HP-20 macroporous resin, the loading solution concentration was 0.2 g crude drug/ml, the ratio of crude drug to resin volume was 1 g∶2.5 ml, the diameter/height ratio of resin column was 1∶7, the dynamic adsorption flow rate was 4 times of bed volume(BV)per hour, and the adsorption time was 1 h. Impurities were removed by using 2 BV of 20% ethanol, 5 BV of 80% ethanol was used to elution, and the content of HAS and HBS was 4.71% and 1.02%, respectively. A total of 20 alkaloids were identified from Z. bungeanum. Conclusion This method was stable and feasible, obtaining high purity and various kinds of alkaloids, which could be used for the enrichment and purification of alkaloids from Z. bungeanum.
8.Stimulation mechanism of osteoblast proliferation and differentiation by Duzhong Decoction-containing serum through L-VGCCs.
Ze-Bin CHEN ; Lan-Lan LUO ; Xin-Yi SHI ; Rui-Tong ZHAO ; Cai-Xian HU ; Yun-Ying FU ; Su-Zhen CHAO ; Bo LIU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(12):3335-3345
This paper aimed to explore the effects of Duzhong Decoction(DZD)-containing serum on the proliferation and osteoblast differentiation of MC3T3-E1 cells through L-type voltage-gated calcium channels(L-VGCCs). L-VGCCs inhibitors, nifedipine and verapamil, were used to block L-VGCCs in osteoblasts. MC3T3-E1 cells were divided into a control group, a low-dose DZD-containing serum(L-DZD) group, a medium-dose DZD-containing serum(M-DZD) group, a high-dose DZD-containing serum(H-DZD) group, a nifedipine group, a H-DZD + nifedipine group, verapamil group, and a H-DZD + verapamil group. The CCK-8 method was used for cell proliferation analysis, alkaline phosphatase(ALP) assay kits for intracellular ALP activity measurement, Western blot for protein expression level in cells, real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR technology for intracellular mRNA expression level determination, fluorescence spectrophotometer for free Ca~(2+) concentration determination in osteoblasts, and alizarin red staining(ARS) for mineralized nodule formation in osteoblasts. The experimental results show that compared to the control group, DZD groups can promote MC3T3-E1 cell proliferation, ALP activity, and mineralized nodule formation, increase intracellular Ca~(2+) concentrations, and upregulate the protein expression of bone morphogenetic protein 2(BMP2), collagen Ⅰ(COL1), α2 subunit protein of L-VGCCs(L-VGCCα2), and the mRNA expression of Runt-related transcription factor 2(RUNX2), and BMP2. After blocking L-VGCCs with nifedipine and verapamil, the intervention effects of DZD-containing serum were inhibited to varying degrees. Both nifedipine and verapamil could inhibit ALP activity, reduce mineralized nodule areas, and downregulate the expression of bone formation-related proteins. Moreover, the effects of DZD-containing serum on increasing MC3T3-E1 cell proliferation, osteoblast differentiation, and Ca~(2+) concentrations, upregulating the mRNA expression of osteoprotegerin(OPG) and protein expression of phosphorylated protein kinase B(p-Akt) and phosphorylated forkhead box protein O1(p-FOXO1), and upregulating phosphatase and tensin homolog(PTEN) expression were reversed by nifedipine. The results indicate that DZD-containing serum can increase the Ca~(2+) concentration in MC3T3-E1 cells to promote bone formation, which may be mediated by L-VGCCs and the PTEN/Akt/FoxO1 signaling pathway, providing a new perspective on the mechanism of DZD in treating osteoporosis.
Animals
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Osteoblasts/metabolism*
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Cell Proliferation/drug effects*
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Cell Differentiation/drug effects*
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Mice
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*
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Calcium Channels, L-Type/genetics*
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Alkaline Phosphatase/genetics*
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Serum/chemistry*
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Cell Line
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Osteogenesis/drug effects*
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Bone Morphogenetic Protein 2/genetics*
9.Follow up analysis of tuberculosis incidence risk and risk factors among middle school students in Chongqing
ZHANG Wen, SU Qian, LIAO Wenping, ZHANG Liyi, XIN Yu, L Juan, LUO Jie, SHI Lin, FAN Jun, SHI Yaling
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(9):1351-1354
Objective:
To understand the incidence risk and risk factors of tuberculosis (TB) among middle school students in Chongqing, so as to provide a basis for formulating TB prevention and control strategies.
Methods:
From September to December 2022, 32 181 middle school students were selected as the study cohort from 15 administrative districts in Chongqing by using the stratified cluster random sampling method. All cohort members were screened with the tuberculin skin test (TST), and relevant information was collected from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2024. On the basis of active screening, the follow up data of the participants were compared with the National Tuberculosis Management Information System to obtain the incidence status of the study subjects. The Log rank test was used to compare the TB incidence rates among students with different characteristics, and a Cox proportional hazards model was established to analyze the incidence risk and risk factors of TB.
Results:
The TST screening rate of the cohort members was 93.0%. During the 2 year follow up period, a total of 36 TB cases occurred, with a cumulative incidence rate of 111.87/100 000 and an incidence density of 55.95/100 000. Among them, the cumulative incidence rate of students from public schools (170.44/ 100 000 ) was higher than that of students from private schools (41.16/100 000), the cumulative incidence rate of students in schools located in high epidemic areas (153.95/100 000) was higher than that in medium epidemic areas (69.00/100 000), and the difference was statistically significant ( χ 2=11.49, 4.73, both P <0.05). The Log-rank test for different TST results showed that the difference in TB comulative incidence rate between students with strongly positive TST results (216.55/ 100 000 ) and those with negative TST results (81.40/100 000) was statistically significant ( χ 2=5.85, P <0.05). Univariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model revealed that the risk of TB was lower in students from private schools ( HR=0.25, 95% CI = 0.10-0.59) and students in medium epidemic areas ( HR=0.46, 95%CI =0.23-0.94); whereas the risk of TB was increased in students with strongly positive TST results ( HR=1.39, 95%CI =1.05-1.84) (all P <0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the risk of TB in students from private schools was lower than that of students from public schools ( HR=0.23, 95%CI=0.08-0.62, P <0.05).
Conclusions
The annual average incidence rate of TB among middle school students in Chongqing is at a relatively high level. It is necessary to strengthen the management and intervention for student groups, including those in public schools, those in schools located in high epidemic areas, and those with strongly positive TST results, so as to reduce the incidence rate of TB.
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.


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