Objective To comprehensively analyze the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 1990 to 2021, and predict the trend of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031, in order to improve its prevention and treatment strategies. Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were extracted and analyzed for the disease burden of nasopharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, and tracheal, bronchial and lung cancers (hereinafter referred to as lung cancer) in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software was utilized to analyze the corresponding trends. The grey prediction model [GM (1,1)] was employed to forecast the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 2022 to 2031. Results The disease burden of respiratory cancers attributed to tobacco and occupational carcinogens in China raised from 1990 to 2021. Among the respiratory cancers, lung cancer led in terms of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and their respective age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021, followed by nasopharyngeal cancer, with laryngeal cancer being the lowest. Analysis via the Joinpoint regression model indicated that, overall, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers in China decreased during this time period, while that of lung cancer increased. From a gender perspective, the disease burden of male patients was significantly higher than that of female patients from 1990 to 2021. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 1990 to 2021 was still relatively heavy. As of 2021, the middle-aged and elderly population above 50 years old was the primary group suffering from the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China. The prediction model showed that the age-standardized rate of nasopharyngeal cancer in China would decline from 2022 to 2031; the age-standardized incidence rate of laryngeal cancer in China would increase, while its age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate would both decrease; the age-standardized rates of lung cancer in China would increase. Conclusion In the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers in China has lightened, but the overall disease burden of lung cancer is still on the rise. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China is still relatively heavy. The disease burden in male patients is significantly higher than that in female patients, and the population above 50 years old is the main group suffering from the disease burden. In the next 10 years, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China will still tend to increase. Therefore, targeted prevention and treatment strategies for men and the middle-aged and elderly populations remain key challenges that urgently need to be addressed in China's response to respiratory cancers.