1.Comparative study of SARIMA and seasonal index model in predicting non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning
Wantong HAN ; Yongqiang ZHANG ; Shichang DU ; Wei WANG ; Kai QU ; Xin HE ; Cixian XU ; Xiumei SUN ; Qiran SUN ; Jinyao ZHANG ; Fan BU ; Xingui SUN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(6):12-16
Objective To establish a prediction model for the occurrence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing, and to provide scientific basis and theoretical support for the prevention and warning of poisoning events. Methods Based on the monitoring data of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing from 2016 to 2024, the seasonal ARIMA model and seasonal index model were established to analyze the data and predict the occurrence of events. Results Between 2016 and 2024, a total of 436 cases of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning were reported in Beijing, showing a downward trend. The established SARIMA model and seasonal index model were SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0) 12, Yt = (-0.0339t+5.8863) × St, and the average relative errors were 65.42% and 29.19%, respectively. In terms of months, the SARIMA model had better predictive performance during April and summer (June to August), while the seasonal index model was superior in other months. By combining the two models, the predicted number of events in 2025 was as follows: 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 5, 2, 7, 1, 1, 1, and 2. Conclusion The seasonal index model has the best prediction effect on the non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing throughout the year, and the number of summer events predicted by SARIMA model is closer to the actual values. The two models can be combined to predict the trend of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning, which provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of carbon monoxide poisoning in the future.
2.Construction and empirical study of multi-agent collaborative governance model for outpatients'sense of access to medical treatment
Chenhui LI ; Guoguan ZHENG ; Shichang WANG
Modern Hospital 2024;24(9):1400-1403
Objective To explore the interaction between multiple governance subjects of the medical service system and their governance roles,and to provide theoretical support for the effectively enhancing of patients'sense of access to medical care.Methods Outpatients of different types of public hospitals in Hangzhou were selected as the research objects,question-naire surveys were conducted using quota sampling method,and hypotheses and models were verified using structural equation modelling technology.Results Statistical tests and path correction showed that the model had a good fit,and that the manage-ment of government departments,internal management of hospitals,service of medical staff,and cognitive attitudes had a positive impact on the sense of access to healthcare,with total effects of 0.71,0.63,0.38,and 0.12,respectively.Conclusion The construction of a collaborative governance model that takes government departments as the leader,public hospitals as the carrier,medical staff as the center axis,and patients as the centre is the best way to practice a collaborative governance model of various subjects,and is an excellent way to practice a collaborative governance model of various subjects.The synergistic governance model of various subjects is one of the critical strategies to practise people's co-construction and sharing and to enhance the sense of access to healthcare effectively.
3.Risk factors for postoperative delirium after Stanford type A aortic dissection : A systematic review and meta-analysis
Pu WANG ; Qiaomei WU ; Shichang GUO ; Mingxin WANG ; Meiying CHEN ; Nan MU ; Wenting TAN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2024;31(05):791-799
Objective To systematically evaluate the risk factors for postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection. Methods We searched the CNKI, SinoMed, Wanfang data, VIP, PubMed, Web of Science, EMbase, The Cochrane Library database from inception to September 2022. Case-control studies, and cohort studies on risk factors for postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection were collected to identify studies about the risk factors for postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection. Quality of the included studies was evaluated by the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS). The meta-analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 software and Stata 15.0 software. Results A total of 21 studies were included involving 3385 patients. The NOS score was 7-8 points. The results of meta-analysis showed that age (MD=2.58, 95%CI 1.44 to 3.72, P<0.000 01), male (OR=1.33, 95%CI 1.12 to 1.59, P=0.001), drinking history (OR=1.45, 95%CI 1.04 to 2.04, P=0.03), diabetes history (OR=1.44, 95%CI 1.12 to 1.85, P=0.005), preoperative leukocytes (MD=1.17, 95%CI 0.57 to 1.77), P=0.000 1), operation time (MD=21.82, 95%CI 5.84 to 37.80, P=0.007), deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (DHCA) time (MD=3.02, 95%CI 1.04 to 5.01, P=0.003), aortic occlusion time (MD=8.94, 95%CI 2.91 to 14.97, P=0.004), cardiopulmonary bypass time (MD=13.92, 95%CI 5.92 to 21.91, P=0.0006), ICU stay (MD=2.77, 95%CI 1.55 to 3.99, P<0.000 01), hospital stay (MD=3.46, 95%CI 2.03 to 4.89, P<0.0001), APACHEⅡ score (MD=2.76, 95%CI 1.59 to 3.93, P<0.000 01), ventilation support time (MD=6.10, 95%CI 3.48 to 8.72, P<0.000 01), hypoxemia (OR=2.32, 95%CI 1.40 to 3.82, P=0.001), the minimum postoperative oxygenation index (MD=−79.52, 95%CI −125.80 to −33.24, P=0.000 8), blood oxygen saturation (MD=−3.50, 95%CI −4.49 to −2.51, P<0.000 01), postoperative hemoglobin (MD=−6.35, 95%CI −9.21 to −3.50, P<0.000 1), postoperative blood lactate (MD=0.45, 95%CI 0.15 to 0.75, P=0.004), postoperative electrolyte abnormalities (OR=5.94, 95%CI 3.50 to 10.09, P<0.000 01), acute kidney injury (OR=1.92, 95%CI 1.34 to 2.75, P=0.000 4) and postoperative body temperature (MD=0.79, 95%CI 0.69 to 0.88, P<0.000 01) were associated with postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection. Conclusion The current evidence shows that age, male, drinking history, diabetes history, operation time, DHCA time, aortic occlusion time, cardiopulmonary bypass time, ICU stay, hospital stay, APACHEⅡ score, ventilation support time, hypoxemia and postoperative body temperature are risk factors for the postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection. Oxygenation index, oxygen saturation, and hemoglobin number are protective factors for delirium after Stanford type A aortic dissection.
4.Efficacy of Zengye Chengqi decoction combined with olanzapine in the treatment of schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome
Weili WANG ; Li DENG ; Hongyu WANG ; Shichang YANG ; Guimei CUI
Sichuan Mental Health 2024;37(5):403-408
Background Patients with schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome experience more severe symptoms,and a substantial proportion of patients derive inadequate benefit from antipsychotics and suffer from serious adverse effects,yet few studies have been conducted on the treatment of schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome with Zengye Chengqi decoction.Objective To explore the efficacy of Zengye Chengqi decoction combined with olanzapine in the treatment of schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome,in order to provide references for the treatment of schizophrenia with the combination of traditional Chinese and western medicine.Methods A total of 60 patients attending the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical College from January 2022 to August 2023 and fulfilling the International Classification of Diseases(ICD-10)diagnostic criteria for schizophrenia were enrolled,and assigned into study group(n=30)and control group(n=30)using random number table methods.All patients were treated with olanzapine,and study group was given Zengye Chengqi decoction on this basis.Treatment for both groups lasted for 4 weeks.All participants were assessed using Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale(PANSS),Montreal Cognitive Assessment(MoCA)and Event-Related Potential P300 at baseline and end of treatment.The occurrence of adverse reactions was recorded at the end of treatment.Results Study group reported a higher treatment effective rate compared with control group(χ2=9.320,P=0.002).After treatment,study group detected a significant reduction in PANSS subscales and total scores(F=10.287,8.258,8.844,20.079,P<0.01),and a notable increase in scores of delayed recall and orientation domains from MoCA(F=4.463,22.255,P<0.05 or 0.01)when compared with control group,with statistical difference.For the P3 component of event-related potential,study group produced significantly larger amplitudes than control group(F=4.247,P<0.05).The incidence rate of abnormal liver function,constipation and increased body mass index(BMI)in study group was lower than those in control group(χ2=4.320,4.463,7.200,P<0.05 or 0.01).Conclusion Zengye Chengqi decoction combined with olanzapine are found to be effective in improving the psychotic symptoms and cognitive function and alleviating the adverse reactions of patients with schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome.
5.Temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Beijing, 2008-2023
Yongqiang ZHANG ; Wei WANG ; Xitai LI ; Shichang DU ; Cixian XU ; Hong QIAO ; Xingui SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2024;45(10):1383-1389
Objective:To analyze the temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing and provide reference evidence in HFMD prevention and control.Methods:The monthly incidence data of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2023 were collected from Notifiable Disease Management Information System of the Chinese Information System of Disease Control and Prevention, and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD were analyzed by the methods of time series seasonal decomposition graph, concentration degree, and circular distribution.The WPS office software 2019 was used to clean the data, Python software 3.12 was used to analyze and make statistical charts.Results:The monthly incidence fluctuation of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2015 was higher than that from 2016 to 2022. From 2016 to 2022, the fluctuation range of monthly incidence showed a gradually decreasing trend.From 2008 to 2015, the concentration ( M) was 0.58, indicating a relatively strong seasonality; the mean angle ( α) calculated by the circular distribution method was 174.95°, and the mean angle standard deviation ( s) was 60.43°. The annual incidence peak occurred on June 27, and the incidence peak period was from April 27 to August 27. From 2016 to 2019 and 2023, the M was 0.57, indicating a relatively strong seasonality. The α was 228.05°, and s was 61.44°. The annual incidence peak occurred on August 20, and the incidence peak period was from June 18 to October 21. From 2020 to 2022, the M was 0.42, indicating a seasonality, the α was 238.27° and s was 76.35°. The annual incidence peak occurred on July 15, and the incidence peak period was from June 14 to November 14. The α of 2008-2015, 2016-2019 and 2023, and 2020-2022 were tested by the Watson-Williams method and the difference was statistically significant ( F=33 443.09, P<0.001). In 2023, the M was 0.77, indicating a strong seasonality. The incidence peak occurred on September 16, and the incidence peak period was from August 5 to October 28. Conclusions:The seasonality of HFMD in Beijing was obvious from 2008 to 2023, and the incidence peak day and peak period overall had rearward shifts. It is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive analysis of the distribution characteristics at different dimensions and the comprehensive prevention and control in key areas, places, and populations during the peak incidence period.
6.Pattern differentiation methods and its clinical application of tangible or intangible abdominal masses of kidney collaterals
Xue LI ; Jing GAO ; Shijing ZHENG ; Bo PENG ; Shichang WANG ; Xinyu ZHAO ; Yan ZHOU ; Jing LI
Journal of Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;47(8):1049-1054
The pattern differentiation method is the most representative part of the inheritance of the experience of renowned practitioners of traditional Chinese medicine,reflecting their clinical thinking characteristics. Among them,Professor LYU Renhe proposed and developed the theory of abdominal masses in the long-term diagnosis and treatment of kidney diseases. Based on his clinical experience,he formed the method of differentiation of Shenluozhengjia (tangible or intangible abdominal masses of kidney collaterals). This differentiation method is characterized by its simple and easy clinical application. Tangible or intangible abdominal masses of kidney collaterals refer to chronic kidney disease,which is based on the basic cause of kidney deficiency. External or internal pathogenic factors cannot be eliminated,and prolonged illness invades the kidney collaterals,causing pathological products,such as qi stagnation,blood stasis,phlegm dampness,heat toxin,and turbid toxin to stagnate in the kidney collaterals,resulting in damage to the kidney body and loss of kidney function. The basic pathogenesis is a deficiency of kidney qi and the formation of tangible or intangible abdominal masses of the kidney collaterals. During pattern differentiation,the type is determined by the deficiency,which is fixed,and the pattern is determined by the excess,which is constantly changing with the condition and can be combined. Furthermore,he summarized the dietary principles as having more essence and less coarseness,more milk and less meat,a phased diet,and the selection of the symptomatic diet. To inherit and improve the theory and clinical practice of the pattern differentiation theory of tangible or intangible abdominal masses of kidney collaterals,this article reviews and summarizes the unique pattern differentiation method of the kidney collateral pattern from the aspects of definition,theoretical origin,etiology and pathogenesis,differentiation and treatment,and regulation,providing a basis for forming suitable diagnosis and treatment method for clinical promotion.
7.The effects of Oxcarbazepine, Lamotrigine and Levetiracetam on cognitive function of children with self-limited epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes
Zhe CHENG ; Ailing DU ; Leiyin CHEN ; Fei GUO ; Pengge FEI ; Jinghua WANG ; Haorui DU ; Shichang YANG
Chinese Journal of Applied Clinical Pediatrics 2023;38(11):874-880
Objective:To investigate the efficacy and cognitive function of 3 new antiepileptic drugs Oxcarbazepine (OXC), Lamotrigine (LTG) and Levetiracetam (LEV) in children with self-limited epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes (SeLECTS).Methods:This was a prospective study.A total of 98 children with SeLECTS who were treated in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University from January 2014 to June 2020 were divided into OXC group, LTG group and LEV group according to the applied therapeutic drugs.Video electroencephalograph (EEG), Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC) and event-related potentials (ERPs) of the children were collected before treatment and 48 weeks of treatment.Clinical efficacy and impact on cognitive function among the 3 groups were compared.Results:(1)Efficacy: There was no significant difference in the effective rate of seizure reduction after treatment among the 3 groups( χ2=0.808, P=0.668). There was no significant difference in EEG remission rate among the 3 groups( χ2=0.763, P=0.683). (2)Cognitive function: ①Intragroup comparison of WISC findings showed that the full scale score (FIQ) and verbal intelligence quotient (VIQ) were significantly enhanced, and the scores of comprehension, vocabulary, arithmetic, decoding and spelling subtests were more significantly enhanced in OXC group after treatment (all P<0.05). In the LTG group, FIQ, VIQ and operational intelligence quotient (PIQ) were significantly enhanced after treatment (all P<0.05), and the subtest scores of comprehension, vocabulary, arithmetic, mapping and layout were significantly enhanced (all P<0.05). In LEV group, FIQ, VIQ and PIQ were significantly enhanced after treatment (all P<0.05), especially the increase in the VIQ, and the scores of vocabulary, understanding, similarity, arithmetic, decoding and puzzle subtests were significantly enhanced (all P<0.05). Pairwise comparison of WISC findings showed that there were no significant differences in the FIQ, VIQ, PIQ and subtest scores before treatment among the 3 groups (all P>0.05). After treatment, the arithmetic and decoding scores of OXC group were significantly higher than those of LTG group (all P<0.05), which were comparable between OXC group and LEV group (all P>0.05). The PIQ and the scores of mapping and layout in LTG group were significantly higher than those of the other 2 groups (all P<0.05). The LEV group had higher scores in vocabulary, comprehension and spelling than those of the other 2 groups (all P<0.05), which had higher decoding scores than those of the LTG group (all P<0.05). No significant differences were found in decoding scores between LEV and OXC group (all P>0.05). Higher VIQ and FIQ were detected in LEV group than those of the other 2 groups (all P<0.05). ②Intragroup comparison of ERPs showed that the latency of LEV group after treatment was significantly shorter than that before treatment ( P<0.05), and there was no significant difference between the other 2 groups before and after treatment (all P>0.05). Pairwise comparison of ERPs showed that before treatment, there were no significant differences in P300 amplitude and latency among the 3 groups (all P>0.05). After treatment, the latency of LEV group was significantly shorter than that of the other 2 groups ( P<0.05), and there was no significant difference in the amplitude between the 3 groups before and after treatment ( P>0.05). Conclusions:(1)In the treatment of SeLECTS in children, OXC, LTG and LEV have reliable and equivalent effects.(2)OXC, LTG and LEV have protective effects on cognitive function in children with SeLECTS.After treatment, LEV provides the strongest protective effect on FIQ, and the protective effect on VIQ is equivalent to OXC, but better than LTG.LTG is superior in protecting spatial perception and PIQ.
8.Influencing factors of medication adherence in patients with severe mental disorders in Zhengzhou
Fan HAI ; Baoqin ZHANG ; Jing QIAO ; Jingfang ZHANG ; Daping DUAN ; Qiheng ZHANG ; Yujie GUO ; Ying WANG ; Benliang LI ; Shichang YANG
Sichuan Mental Health 2022;35(6):531-536
ObjectiveTo investigate the status and influencing factors of medication adherence in patients with severe mental disorders in Zhengzhou, so as to provide references for the formulation of prevention and treatment measures for severe mental disorders. MethodsFrom March to June 2021, a stratified multistage cluster sampling method was applied to select 342 patients from the National Information System for Severe Mental Disorders in Zhengzhou. The general demographic data of patients were collected via self-designed questionnaire, and the medication status was investigated, then the influential factors were summarized. The differences in influential factors of medication adherence were compared between the medication adherence group and the medication non-adherence group. Thereafter, Logistic regression analysis was applied to explore the factors influencing medication adherence. ResultsA total of 320 patients were included in the final analysis, altogether 76.56% of patients (n=245) complied with medication. The differences between patients in the medication adherence group and those in the medication non-adherence group were statistically significant in terms of residence, occupation, and outpatient chronic disease reimbursement (χ2=14.015, 7.502, 13.106, P<0.05 or 0.01). In the questionnaire of influential factors on medication adherence, there were statistically significant differences in the scores of lack of insight, stigma and drug-related factors between the two groups (Z=7.588, 2.379, 2.893, P<0.05 or 0.01). Outpatient chronic disease reimbursement was a protective factor for medication adherence (OR=2.727, 95% CI: 1.320~5.634, P<0.01), while rural residence (OR=0.465, 95% CI: 0.221~0.977, P<0.05) and lack of insight (OR=0.398, 95% CI: 0.286~0.553, P<0.01) were risk factors for medication adherence. ConclusionPatients with severe mental disorders in Zhengzhou have a high rate of medication adherence, moreover, the outpatient chronic disease reimbursement, lack of insight and residence may be influencing factors for medication adherence in patients with severe mental disorders.
9.Enhanced recovery after surgery combined with laparoscopy for the treatment of colorectal cancer in the elderly: therapeutic efficacy and effects on proinflammatory factors and immune responses
Shichang BIAN ; Weisheng WANG ; Dianfeng WANG ; Zhijun SUN ; Hongjuan WAN
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2021;40(8):1035-1039
Objective:To investigate the efficacy of enhanced recovery after surgery(ERAS)combined with laparoscopy for the treatment of colorectal cancer in the elderly and its effects on proinflammatory factors and immune responses.Methods:A total of 158 elderly patients with colorectal cancer treated with surgery were retrospectively analyzed.According to different treatment methods, they were divided into the control group(76 cases)and the study group(82 cases). The control group received traditional open surgery and routine perioperative care.The study group received laparoscopic radical resection of colorectal cancer plus perioperative ERAS.Surgery parameters, complications, postoperative immune function and proinflammatory factor levels were compared between the two groups.Results:The operation duration of the study group was significantly longer than that of the control group[(128.5±33.7)min vs.(117.4±28.7)min, t=2.220, P=0.028], whereas the intraoperative blood loss[(100.8±20.5)ml vs.(250.7±62.3)ml, t=20.621, P<0.01]and the incision length[(4.5±1.2)cm vs.(17.5±3.0)cm, t=36.243, P<0.01]were significantly less than those in the control group.The time to first flatus[(2.0±0.9)d vs.(3.8±1.8)d, t=8.037, P<0.01], time to first defecation[(2.8±0.8)d vs.(4.5±1.1)d, t=11.167, P<0.01], time to first ambulation[(1.2±0.2)d vs.(3.8±1.3)d, t=17.888, P<0.01]and hospitalization length[(7.1±0.2)d vs.(11.4±2.2)d, t=17.625, P<0.01]were also significantly shorter than those in the control group.The incidences of surgical site infections(2.4% vs.10.5%, χ2=4.351, P=0.037), abdominal distension(7.3% vs.19.7%, χ2=5.279, P=0.023)and intestinal obstruction(9.8% vs.22.4%, χ2=4.711, P=0.030)in the study group were significantly lower than those in the control group.The levels of C-reactive protein, interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-α in the study group were significantly lower than those in the control group at 1 d, 3 d and 7 d after surgery( t= 9.612, 7.300, 5.446, 8.762, 12.138, 15.370, 10.186, 10.432, 13.512, respectively, all P<0.05). The levels of CD3 + , CD4 + and CD4 + /CD8 + in the study group were significantly higher than those in the control group at 1 d, 3 d and 7 d after surgery( t= 2.128, 2.957, 2.313, 2.914, 2.937, 2.809, 5.089, 5.623, 5.409, respectively, P<0.05 for all), and the levels of CD8 + were significantly lower than those of the control group( t= 2.008, 2.580, 4.902, all P<0.05). Conclusions:Laparoscopy combined with ERAS for the treatment of colorectal cancer in the elderly can reduce surgical injury and complications and mitigate inflammatory responses with little impact on immune responses.
10.Correlation between left behind expericences with depressive and anxiety symptoms of left behind middle school stutents
WANG Cuimei, YU Zhiwen, HUANG Xiang, ZHONG Houyong, GONG Ling, WANG Shichang, LU Jinkui, WU Xiaoyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2021;42(12):1825-1828
Objective:
To explore the relationship between left behind experiences due to work migration of parents with depressive and anxiety symptoms among left behind middle school stutents, to provide a theoretical basis for the government to formulate intervention policies for mental health of left behind children.
Methods:
The stratified random cluster sampling method was used to investigate 2 160 children in Poyang and Guangfeng Counties of Shangrao City, Jiangxi Province from April to June, 2019. Finally, 776 left behind children aged 13 to 18 were selected. The Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7) and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) were used to evaluate the depression and anxiety symptoms. Family characteristics and lifestyle behaviors of left behind children were investigated by questionnaire.
Results:
In terms of gender, the detection rates of both depressive symptoms and anxiety symptoms were higher in girls than in boys. In terms of age, the detection rates of depressive symptoms (43.2%) and anxiety symptoms (39.9%) in left behind children in high school (16-18 years old) were higher than those in middle school (13-15 years old)( 27.3 % and 33.0%). The detection rate of depressive among left behind children significantly differet in sexual, gender ( χ 2= 10.48 , 21.08); the detection rate of anxiety symptoms among left behind children significantly different in sexual, maternal occupation, and paternal educational background ( χ 2=8.66, 5.30, 8.35) ( P <0.05).
Conclusion
Parent child separation is associated with depressive symptoms in left behind middle school stutents. Mental health of children in middle school stutents is of great significance to the prevention of depression and anxiety symptoms in left behind children.


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