1.Comparative study of SARIMA and seasonal index model in predicting non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning
Wantong HAN ; Yongqiang ZHANG ; Shichang DU ; Wei WANG ; Kai QU ; Xin HE ; Cixian XU ; Xiumei SUN ; Qiran SUN ; Jinyao ZHANG ; Fan BU ; Xingui SUN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(6):12-16
Objective To establish a prediction model for the occurrence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing, and to provide scientific basis and theoretical support for the prevention and warning of poisoning events. Methods Based on the monitoring data of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing from 2016 to 2024, the seasonal ARIMA model and seasonal index model were established to analyze the data and predict the occurrence of events. Results Between 2016 and 2024, a total of 436 cases of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning were reported in Beijing, showing a downward trend. The established SARIMA model and seasonal index model were SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0) 12, Yt = (-0.0339t+5.8863) × St, and the average relative errors were 65.42% and 29.19%, respectively. In terms of months, the SARIMA model had better predictive performance during April and summer (June to August), while the seasonal index model was superior in other months. By combining the two models, the predicted number of events in 2025 was as follows: 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 5, 2, 7, 1, 1, 1, and 2. Conclusion The seasonal index model has the best prediction effect on the non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events in Beijing throughout the year, and the number of summer events predicted by SARIMA model is closer to the actual values. The two models can be combined to predict the trend of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning, which provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of carbon monoxide poisoning in the future.
2.Temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Beijing, 2008-2023
Yongqiang ZHANG ; Wei WANG ; Xitai LI ; Shichang DU ; Cixian XU ; Hong QIAO ; Xingui SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2024;45(10):1383-1389
Objective:To analyze the temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing and provide reference evidence in HFMD prevention and control.Methods:The monthly incidence data of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2023 were collected from Notifiable Disease Management Information System of the Chinese Information System of Disease Control and Prevention, and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD were analyzed by the methods of time series seasonal decomposition graph, concentration degree, and circular distribution.The WPS office software 2019 was used to clean the data, Python software 3.12 was used to analyze and make statistical charts.Results:The monthly incidence fluctuation of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2015 was higher than that from 2016 to 2022. From 2016 to 2022, the fluctuation range of monthly incidence showed a gradually decreasing trend.From 2008 to 2015, the concentration ( M) was 0.58, indicating a relatively strong seasonality; the mean angle ( α) calculated by the circular distribution method was 174.95°, and the mean angle standard deviation ( s) was 60.43°. The annual incidence peak occurred on June 27, and the incidence peak period was from April 27 to August 27. From 2016 to 2019 and 2023, the M was 0.57, indicating a relatively strong seasonality. The α was 228.05°, and s was 61.44°. The annual incidence peak occurred on August 20, and the incidence peak period was from June 18 to October 21. From 2020 to 2022, the M was 0.42, indicating a seasonality, the α was 238.27° and s was 76.35°. The annual incidence peak occurred on July 15, and the incidence peak period was from June 14 to November 14. The α of 2008-2015, 2016-2019 and 2023, and 2020-2022 were tested by the Watson-Williams method and the difference was statistically significant ( F=33 443.09, P<0.001). In 2023, the M was 0.77, indicating a strong seasonality. The incidence peak occurred on September 16, and the incidence peak period was from August 5 to October 28. Conclusions:The seasonality of HFMD in Beijing was obvious from 2008 to 2023, and the incidence peak day and peak period overall had rearward shifts. It is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive analysis of the distribution characteristics at different dimensions and the comprehensive prevention and control in key areas, places, and populations during the peak incidence period.
3.Pattern differentiation methods and its clinical application of tangible or intangible abdominal masses of kidney collaterals
Xue LI ; Jing GAO ; Shijing ZHENG ; Bo PENG ; Shichang WANG ; Xinyu ZHAO ; Yan ZHOU ; Jing LI
Journal of Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;47(8):1049-1054
The pattern differentiation method is the most representative part of the inheritance of the experience of renowned practitioners of traditional Chinese medicine,reflecting their clinical thinking characteristics. Among them,Professor LYU Renhe proposed and developed the theory of abdominal masses in the long-term diagnosis and treatment of kidney diseases. Based on his clinical experience,he formed the method of differentiation of Shenluozhengjia (tangible or intangible abdominal masses of kidney collaterals). This differentiation method is characterized by its simple and easy clinical application. Tangible or intangible abdominal masses of kidney collaterals refer to chronic kidney disease,which is based on the basic cause of kidney deficiency. External or internal pathogenic factors cannot be eliminated,and prolonged illness invades the kidney collaterals,causing pathological products,such as qi stagnation,blood stasis,phlegm dampness,heat toxin,and turbid toxin to stagnate in the kidney collaterals,resulting in damage to the kidney body and loss of kidney function. The basic pathogenesis is a deficiency of kidney qi and the formation of tangible or intangible abdominal masses of the kidney collaterals. During pattern differentiation,the type is determined by the deficiency,which is fixed,and the pattern is determined by the excess,which is constantly changing with the condition and can be combined. Furthermore,he summarized the dietary principles as having more essence and less coarseness,more milk and less meat,a phased diet,and the selection of the symptomatic diet. To inherit and improve the theory and clinical practice of the pattern differentiation theory of tangible or intangible abdominal masses of kidney collaterals,this article reviews and summarizes the unique pattern differentiation method of the kidney collateral pattern from the aspects of definition,theoretical origin,etiology and pathogenesis,differentiation and treatment,and regulation,providing a basis for forming suitable diagnosis and treatment method for clinical promotion.
4.Relationship between mobile phone addiction and anxiety among college students: the acting path of loneliness
Mengyang TAO ; Lijun SUN ; Fei GUO ; Jianhua ZHANG ; Jinjin DONG ; Shichang YANG
Sichuan Mental Health 2024;37(2):156-161
BackgroundAnxiety exists as a prevalent psychological problem among college students nowadays, which brings negative influence on their normal life. Mobile phone addiction and loneliness both have an impact on college students' anxiety. However, the acting path of loneliness between mobile phone addiction and anxiety requires further exploration. ObjectiveTo analyze the relationships among mobile phone addiction, loneliness and anxiety in college students, and to explore the acting path of loneliness between mobile phone addiction and anxiety. MethodsOn December 21, 2023, 1 400 college students from a university in Henan Province were selected, in accordance with the simple random sampling method, for investigation of this study. Questionnaire survey was conducted by using several scales including Mobile Phone Addiction Tendency Scale (MPATS), Self-rating Anxiety Scale (SAS) and University of California Los Angeles-Loneliness Scale (UCLA-LS). Pearson correlation analysis was used to examine the correlation between the scores of each scale above, and SPSS macro program Process 3.3 was used to test the mediation effect. ResultsA total of 1 239 valid questionnaires were collected, with an effective recovery rate of 88.50%. The MPATS score of college students was positively correlated with both SAS and UCLA-LS scores (r=0.474, 0.387, P<0.01), and UCLA-LS score was positively correlated with SAS score (r=0.541, P<0.01). The indirect effect of loneliness between mobile phone addiction and anxiety was 0.160 (95% CI: 0.118~0.173), accounting for 33.97% of the total effect. ConclusionMobile phone addiction can positively predict anxiety among college students, and loneliness may act as the mediation path between mobile phone addiction and anxiety among college students.
5.Risk factors for postoperative delirium after Stanford type A aortic dissection : A systematic review and meta-analysis
Pu WANG ; Qiaomei WU ; Shichang GUO ; Mingxin WANG ; Meiying CHEN ; Nan MU ; Wenting TAN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2024;31(05):791-799
Objective To systematically evaluate the risk factors for postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection. Methods We searched the CNKI, SinoMed, Wanfang data, VIP, PubMed, Web of Science, EMbase, The Cochrane Library database from inception to September 2022. Case-control studies, and cohort studies on risk factors for postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection were collected to identify studies about the risk factors for postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection. Quality of the included studies was evaluated by the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS). The meta-analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 software and Stata 15.0 software. Results A total of 21 studies were included involving 3385 patients. The NOS score was 7-8 points. The results of meta-analysis showed that age (MD=2.58, 95%CI 1.44 to 3.72, P<0.000 01), male (OR=1.33, 95%CI 1.12 to 1.59, P=0.001), drinking history (OR=1.45, 95%CI 1.04 to 2.04, P=0.03), diabetes history (OR=1.44, 95%CI 1.12 to 1.85, P=0.005), preoperative leukocytes (MD=1.17, 95%CI 0.57 to 1.77), P=0.000 1), operation time (MD=21.82, 95%CI 5.84 to 37.80, P=0.007), deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (DHCA) time (MD=3.02, 95%CI 1.04 to 5.01, P=0.003), aortic occlusion time (MD=8.94, 95%CI 2.91 to 14.97, P=0.004), cardiopulmonary bypass time (MD=13.92, 95%CI 5.92 to 21.91, P=0.0006), ICU stay (MD=2.77, 95%CI 1.55 to 3.99, P<0.000 01), hospital stay (MD=3.46, 95%CI 2.03 to 4.89, P<0.0001), APACHEⅡ score (MD=2.76, 95%CI 1.59 to 3.93, P<0.000 01), ventilation support time (MD=6.10, 95%CI 3.48 to 8.72, P<0.000 01), hypoxemia (OR=2.32, 95%CI 1.40 to 3.82, P=0.001), the minimum postoperative oxygenation index (MD=−79.52, 95%CI −125.80 to −33.24, P=0.000 8), blood oxygen saturation (MD=−3.50, 95%CI −4.49 to −2.51, P<0.000 01), postoperative hemoglobin (MD=−6.35, 95%CI −9.21 to −3.50, P<0.000 1), postoperative blood lactate (MD=0.45, 95%CI 0.15 to 0.75, P=0.004), postoperative electrolyte abnormalities (OR=5.94, 95%CI 3.50 to 10.09, P<0.000 01), acute kidney injury (OR=1.92, 95%CI 1.34 to 2.75, P=0.000 4) and postoperative body temperature (MD=0.79, 95%CI 0.69 to 0.88, P<0.000 01) were associated with postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection. Conclusion The current evidence shows that age, male, drinking history, diabetes history, operation time, DHCA time, aortic occlusion time, cardiopulmonary bypass time, ICU stay, hospital stay, APACHEⅡ score, ventilation support time, hypoxemia and postoperative body temperature are risk factors for the postoperative delirium after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection. Oxygenation index, oxygen saturation, and hemoglobin number are protective factors for delirium after Stanford type A aortic dissection.
6.Efficacy of Zengye Chengqi decoction combined with olanzapine in the treatment of schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome
Weili WANG ; Li DENG ; Hongyu WANG ; Shichang YANG ; Guimei CUI
Sichuan Mental Health 2024;37(5):403-408
Background Patients with schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome experience more severe symptoms,and a substantial proportion of patients derive inadequate benefit from antipsychotics and suffer from serious adverse effects,yet few studies have been conducted on the treatment of schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome with Zengye Chengqi decoction.Objective To explore the efficacy of Zengye Chengqi decoction combined with olanzapine in the treatment of schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome,in order to provide references for the treatment of schizophrenia with the combination of traditional Chinese and western medicine.Methods A total of 60 patients attending the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical College from January 2022 to August 2023 and fulfilling the International Classification of Diseases(ICD-10)diagnostic criteria for schizophrenia were enrolled,and assigned into study group(n=30)and control group(n=30)using random number table methods.All patients were treated with olanzapine,and study group was given Zengye Chengqi decoction on this basis.Treatment for both groups lasted for 4 weeks.All participants were assessed using Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale(PANSS),Montreal Cognitive Assessment(MoCA)and Event-Related Potential P300 at baseline and end of treatment.The occurrence of adverse reactions was recorded at the end of treatment.Results Study group reported a higher treatment effective rate compared with control group(χ2=9.320,P=0.002).After treatment,study group detected a significant reduction in PANSS subscales and total scores(F=10.287,8.258,8.844,20.079,P<0.01),and a notable increase in scores of delayed recall and orientation domains from MoCA(F=4.463,22.255,P<0.05 or 0.01)when compared with control group,with statistical difference.For the P3 component of event-related potential,study group produced significantly larger amplitudes than control group(F=4.247,P<0.05).The incidence rate of abnormal liver function,constipation and increased body mass index(BMI)in study group was lower than those in control group(χ2=4.320,4.463,7.200,P<0.05 or 0.01).Conclusion Zengye Chengqi decoction combined with olanzapine are found to be effective in improving the psychotic symptoms and cognitive function and alleviating the adverse reactions of patients with schizophrenia of Yangming Fushi syndrome.
7.Effects of spheroid culture in a rotating bioreactor on secretion of inflammatory factors by human placenta-derived mesenchymal stem cells
Pingping ZHANG ; Tingting LIANG ; Mingsong FAN ; Li CHEN ; Shichang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2024;28(19):3012-3017
BACKGROUND:Spheroid culture of mesenchymal stem cells in bioreactors is an in vitro culture method to maintain their stemness properties and allow for large-scale expansion.Clarifying its effects on the immunoregulation effect of stem cells is beneficial for their clinical application. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effects of spheroid culture in a rotating bioreactor on the secretion of inflammatory factors by human placenta-derived mesenchymal stem cells. METHODS:Placenta-derived mesenchymal stem cells isolated from human placenta tissue were cultured in two-dimensional culture or a rotating bioreactor culture.Cell morphology and proliferation ability were observed using inverted phase contrast microscopy,immunohistochemical staining,and CCK-8 assay.The gene expression and protein secretion of several inflammatory factors were detected by RT-qPCR and flow immunofluorescence assay. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Mesenchymal stem cells cultured in a rotating bioreactor aggregated into multicellular spheroids,which gradually increased in number and volume.(2)The hematoxylin-eosin staining results showed that the mesenchymal stem cells cultured in the rotating bioreactor for 4 days were evenly distributed and had normal morphology in the spheroids.(3)Immunohistochemical staining results revealed many mesenchymal stem cells with Ki-67 positive in the spheroids.(4)The CCK-8 assay results exhibited that the viability of mesenchymal stem cells derived from spheroid culture was significantly higher than that of cells cultured in two-dimensional culture.(5)The results of RT-qPCR and flow immunofluorescence assay demonstrated that the gene expression and protein secretion(interleukin 1β,interleukin-4,interleukin-6,interleukin-8,interleukin-10,interleukin-17,tumor necrosis factor α and interferon α)of inflammatory factors derived from mesenchymal stem cells cultured in the rotating bioreactor were significantly higher than those in two-dimensional culture.(6)Our results indicate that spheroid culture in a rotating bioreactor can significantly elevate the secretion ability of various inflammatory factors by human placenta-derived mesenchymal stem cells,and enhance the immunoregulatory effect of human placenta-derived mesenchymal stem cells.
8.Construction and empirical study of multi-agent collaborative governance model for outpatients'sense of access to medical treatment
Chenhui LI ; Guoguan ZHENG ; Shichang WANG
Modern Hospital 2024;24(9):1400-1403
Objective To explore the interaction between multiple governance subjects of the medical service system and their governance roles,and to provide theoretical support for the effectively enhancing of patients'sense of access to medical care.Methods Outpatients of different types of public hospitals in Hangzhou were selected as the research objects,question-naire surveys were conducted using quota sampling method,and hypotheses and models were verified using structural equation modelling technology.Results Statistical tests and path correction showed that the model had a good fit,and that the manage-ment of government departments,internal management of hospitals,service of medical staff,and cognitive attitudes had a positive impact on the sense of access to healthcare,with total effects of 0.71,0.63,0.38,and 0.12,respectively.Conclusion The construction of a collaborative governance model that takes government departments as the leader,public hospitals as the carrier,medical staff as the center axis,and patients as the centre is the best way to practice a collaborative governance model of various subjects,and is an excellent way to practice a collaborative governance model of various subjects.The synergistic governance model of various subjects is one of the critical strategies to practise people's co-construction and sharing and to enhance the sense of access to healthcare effectively.
9.Research progress in prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation using PET/CT
Shichang LI ; Ainan GUO ; Fang ZHANG ; Lingge WEI ; Peng FU
Chinese Journal of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging 2024;44(10):633-636
With the increasing maturity of liver transplantation technology and the improvement of postoperative management, liver transplantation has become one of the important means for treating hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the postoperative recurrence is the main reason for treatment failure. Therefore, it is of great clinical significance to accurately predict the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients undergoing liver transplantation for HCC. PET/CT can reflect cellular metabolism and function changes in target organ at the molecular level. The tumor metabolic burden parameters of PET/CT have been included in the post-transplant evaluation system for liver transplantation and have good prognostic value. This article provides a review of prediction of HCC recurrence after liver transplantation using PET/CT.
10.Effectiveness of evidence-based thinking oriented micro-course and teaching method of case-based learning:cultivation of clinical thinking ability of nurses taking standardised training in ICU
Shichang GUO ; Mengqi XUE ; Qiaomei WU ; Lijuan ZHANG ; Wenting TAN
Modern Clinical Nursing 2024;23(7):39-45
Objective To explore the effect of evidence-based thinking oriented micro-course and case-based learning(CBL)on cultivation of clinical thinking ability of nurses who are taking the standardised nursing training in intensive care unit(ICU)so as to provide a new teaching method in the training of nurses.Methods A total of 72 nurses taking standardised nursing training in ICU of our hospital from November 2021 to October 2023 were selected as the research objects.Thirty-six of nurses who took rotation in the ICU from November 2021 to October 2022 were assigned in the control group,and other 36 nurses who took rotation in the ICU from November 2022 to October 2023 were assigned in the trial group.In the control group,CBL teaching method was adopted in the standardised nursing training,while both of evidence-based thinking oriented micro-course and CBL teaching mothed were adopted in the trial group for the standardised nursing training.The two groups were compared in terms of scores of clinical thinking ability,assessment of theory and clinical skills,as well as nurses'satisfaction with the teaching.Results After the training,nurses in the trial group exhibited significant superiority to the control group in total scores of clinical thinking ability and its three dimensions,critical thinking ability,systematic thinking ability and evidence-based thinking ability(P<0.05 for all).Furthermore,nurses in the trial group achieved significantly higher scores in theoretical assessment and assessment of clinical skills in comparison with those in the control group(P<0.05).Moreover,the trial group reported significantly higher satisfaction with both of the teaching method and learning atmosphere than those of the control group(P<0.05 for both).Conclusion Evidence-based thinking oriented micro-course and CBL teaching method can effectively improve the clinical thinking ability,theoretical knowledge and operational skills among the nurses taking standardised nursing training in ICU.


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