Objective To study the seasonal distribution characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in PM_2.5 in Lianyungang City, and analyze the sources of PAHs pollution, and to evaluate the health risks of PAHs in different seasons. Methods PM2.5 samples were collected regularly from January 2019 to December 2023, and 16 types of PAHs were determined by HPLC. Kruskal-Wallis H test was used to compare the concentrations of PM2.5 and PAHs in different years and seasons. The source of PAHs was analyzed by characteristic ratio and principal component analysis (PCA). Health risks were assessed using the BaP equivalent method and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) model. Results The annual exceedance rates of PM_2.5 and BaP in Lianyungang showed a decreasing trend from 2019 to 2023. PM_2.5, total PAHs and PAHs monomers (except Ace, Flu and Acy) all showed significant seasonal differences, with the highest concentration in winter (P<0.001). The average proportion of 4-ring PAHs was the highest and the average proportion of 2-ring PAHs was the lowest. The proportion of 5-6 ring PAHs was relatively high in winter and spring. PM2.5and PAHs were negatively correlated with temperature, relative humidity and precipitation, and were positively correlated with atmospheric pressure. PM_2.5 was negatively correlated with wind speed, while some PAHs monomers were positively correlated with wind speed. The characteristic ratio and PCA results showed that the main sources of PAHs in Lianyungang City were mixed sources of road dust and vehicle emissions, oil pollution sources and biomass combustion sources. The results of ILCR showed that the highest risk was found in adults, with males slightly higher than females. In Lianyungang, the maximum value of ILCR in winter was more than 10-6 in people over 9 years old. Conclusion The main sources of PAHs in PM_2.5 in Lianyungang City are mixed sources of road dust and vehicle emissions, oil pollution sources, and biomass combustion sources. Under the current exposure level of PAHs in PM_2.5, residents have a certain potential carcinogenic risk.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the efficacy， safety and economics of calcium channel modulators in the treatment of diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain （DPNP）， and provide evidence-based evidence for clinical drug selection and decision-making. METHODS PubMed， Embase， Cochrane Library， CNKI， Wanfang data， VIP net， CBM and official websites of foreign health technology assessment （HTA） institutions were systematically searched to collect HTA reports， systematic review/meta-analyses， and pharmacoeconomic studies of pregabalin， gabapentin， crisugabalin， and mirogabalin for the treatment of DPNP. The timeframe for all searches was from the inception to June 2024. After data extraction and quality assessment， the results of the included studies were analyzed descriptively. RESULTS A total of 16 articles were included， involving 1 HTA report， 7 systematic reviews/meta- analyses， and 8 pharmacoeconomic studies. No studies on crisugabalin were retrieved. Compared with placebo， both pregabalin and mirogabalin reduced end point pain scores and increased the proportion of patients with ≥30% and/or ≥50% reduction in pain scores. Pregabalin also improved patient global impression of change （PGIC）. Gabapentin was similar to placebo in reducing end point pain scores and increasing the proportion of patients with ≥30% and/or ≥50% reduction in pain scores， but gabapentin improved PGIC of patients. Compared with pregabalin， mirogabalin was more effective in the treatment of pain. The safety of pregabalin and mirogabalin was similar， and compared with placebo， both pregabalin and mirogabalin increased the risk of common adverse reactions such as dizziness and somnolence. The safety of gabapentin was similar to placebo and duloxetine. Compared with duloxetine， pregabalin and gabapentin were not cost-effective. Compared with gabapentin， pregabalin was cost-effective. Mirogabalin was cost-effective， as compared with placebo and pregabalin. CONCLUSIONS Pregabalin and mirogabalin are effective in the treatment of DPNP， the efficacy of mirogabalin is better than pregabalin， and the safety is similar between them. The economic conclusions vary from country to country， pending a pharmacoeconomic study based on our population.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-utility of benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy as first-line treatment for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer （ES-SCLC） from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS Based on the data from the ETER 701 study， a partitioned survival model was constructed with a cycle of 3 weeks to simulate the total cost， quality-adjusted life years （QALY）， and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER） over 10 years for patients with ES- SCLC treated with benmelstobart plus anlotinib and chemotherapy， or chemotherapy alone. One-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were performed to verify the robustness of the simulation results. The willingness-to-pay （WTP） threshold was set at 3 times the per capita gross domestic product （GDP） of China in 2023， which amounted to 268 074 yuan/QALY. RESULTS Compared with chemotherapy alone， benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy gained 0.438 QALY more at the cost of 403 505.55 yuan more， with an ICER of 922 031.37 yuan/QALY， which was higher than the WTP threshold set in this study. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that benmelstobart’s cost and utility value of the progression-free survival state had a greater impact on the ICER value； probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model； only when the price of benmelstobart was reduced by 75.4%， the combined regimen would be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS The first-line treatment of ES-SCLC with benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy is not cost-effective from the perspective of China’s healthcare system at present.

Varicocele-induced infertility （VCI） is a common andrological disease in clinical practice. Oxidative stress represents the primary mechanism through which varicocele causes male infertility. Traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） treatment， characterized by its multi-target， multi-component， multi-system， and multi-pathway actions， has achieved favorable outcomes in the field of VCI treatment. This paper summarizes the underlying oxidative stress mechanism of VCI and the relevant signaling pathways involved. By reviewing the current research status on how monomers， active fractions， compound formulas， and related preparations of TCM can intervene in oxidative stress through the regulation of these signaling pathways to improve VCI， it is found that the nuclear factor-erythroid 2-related factor 2 （Nrf2） signaling pathway， the mitogen-activated protein kinase （MAPK） signaling pathway， and the hypoxia-inducible factor-1α （HIF-1α） signaling pathway are closely related to the development of VCI. TCM monomers and active fractions （flavonoids from Cuscutae Semen， polysaccharides from Astragali Radix， curcumin， ginsenoside Rg1， hyperin and echinacoside）， as well as compound formulas and related preparations of TCM （modified Dahuang zhechong granules， Shengjing huoxue formula， modified Tianxiong san， Tongjingling， Bushen huoxue formula， Mailuoshutong pill， Zishen yutai pill， Danhong tongjing formula） can alleviate oxidative stress， reduce lipid peroxidation damage， improve mitochondrial dysfunction， decrease sperm DNA fragmentation， and inhibit apoptosis by activating the Nrf2 signaling pathways and inhibiting the MAPK and HIF-1α signaling pathways， thereby improving reproductive function.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with aromatase inhibitor （AI） versus AI monotherapy as first-line treatment for hormone receptor-positive （HR+）/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative （HER2－） metastatic breast cancer， thereby providing evidence-based support for clinical therapeutic decision- making and healthcare policy formulation. METHODS Based on the MECCA trial， a partitioned survival model was constructed using a 4-week cycle length to simulate outcomes over patients’ lifetime. The model outputs included total costs， quality-adjusted life year （QALY）， and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER）. Sensitivity analyses were performed to validate the robustness of base-case results， while scenario analyses examined the cost-effectiveness of both treatment strategies under 10-year， 20-year， and lifetime time horizons. RESULTS With the willingness-to-pay （WTP） threshold set at 1 times China’s 2024 per capita gross domestic product （GDP） （95 749 yuan/QALY）， patients receiving capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen gained incremental utility （0.66 QALYs） while incurring higher costs， with ICER of 27 684.85 yuan/QALY. Results of the one-way sensitivity analysis showed that factors with significant impacts on ICER included the cost discount rate， drug costs of the capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI group， utility value in the progression-free survival state， follow-up costs， and treatment costs in the subsequent stablephase. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that when the WTP threshold ≥49 250 yuan/QALY， the capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen had a 100% probability of being cost-effective. Scenario analysis results demonstrated that capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen was more cost-effective than the AI alone regimen across 10-year， 20-year， and lifetime study horizons. CONCLUSIONS Under the premise that the WTP threshold is set at 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024， capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen is more cost-effective than the AI alone regimen as the first-line treatment for HR+/HER2－ metastatic breast cancer.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of sacituzumab tirumotecan （ST） versus chemotherapy treatment physician’s choice （TPC） as second-line and later-line treatment for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer （mTNBC） from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was constructed based on the OptiTROP-Breast 01 trial， with a cycle length of 4 weeks and a time horizon of 10 years， applying a 5% discount rate. Quality adjusted life year （QALY） and costs were used as outcome measures， and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER） of ST versus TPC for second-line and later-line treatment of mTNBC was calculated. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to validate the robustness of the base-case results. RESULTS At a willingness-to-pay threshold （WTP） of 3 times China’s 2024 per capita gross domestic product （GDP） （287 247 yuan/QALY）， patients receiving ST gained incremental utility （0.42 QALY） at a higher cost， yielding an ICER of 205 562.07 yuan/QALY， which was lower than WTP， indicating that ST was more cost-effective compared to TPC. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that key factors influencing the ICER included the utility value of progression-free survival and the price of ST. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis showed that the base-case results were robust. CONCLUSIONS From the perspective of China’s healthcare system， at a WTP of 3 times China’s per capita GDP， ST is more cost-effective than TPC as second-line and later-line treatment for mTNBC.

OBJECTIVE To assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of five glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists （GLP- 1RAs） in the treatment of poorly controlled type 2 diabetes mellitus （T2DM） treated with metformin. METHODS Baseline data from patients in previously published meta-analysis and included randomized controlled trials （RCTs） were extracted to predict survival， long-term efficacy， and costs for each group using the United Kingdom prospective diabetes study outcome model 2.1. The cost-effectiveness of 5 GLP-1RAs （liraglutide， lixisenatide， exenatide， dulaglutide， and semaglutide） was analyzed by cost- utility analysis. Sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis were also performed to verify the uncertainty of basic analysis results. RESULTS A total of 21 RCTs with 6 796 patients were included. Survival analysis curves showed the superiority of semaglutide in reducing the risk of death from cardiovascular disease and dulaglutide in reducing the risk of all-cause mortality over other GLP- 1RAs. The cost-utility analysis showed that the five drugs were economically superior to inferior in the order of lixisenatide， semaglutide， exenatide， dulaglutide， and liraglutide； one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that the results were robust. The scenario analysis results indicated that the price of semaglutide should decrease by at least 54.64% to 369.21 yuan， which is cost-effectiveness compared to lixisenatide. CONCLUSIONS For T2DM patients in China with poor glycemic control after treatment with metformin， lixisenatide and semaglutide may be considered as the preferred regimen.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tislelizumab combined with chemotherapy as first-line treatment for locally advanced unresectable or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma. METHODS The data of RATIONALE-305 study and related literature were used to establish a partitioned survival model from the perspective of China’s health system. The cycle was 3 weeks， the simulation time was set as 10 years， and the discount rate was 5%. The quality-adjusted life years （QALYs） were used as the health outcome indicator to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tislelizumab combined with chemotherapy versus placebo combined with chemotherapy as first-line treatment for locally advanced unresectable or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma， and one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were also conducted. RESULTS The base analysis showed that the patients received more 0.268 QALYs with tislelizumab plus chemotherapy， compared with placebo plus chemotherapy， but the cost increased by 70 404.81 yuan with an incremental cost- effectiveness ratio （ICER） of 262 431.62 yuan/QALY， which was less than three times China’s gross domestic product （GDP） per capita in 2023 as the willingness-to-pay （WTP） threshold （268 074 yuan/QALY）. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the efficacy value of progress free survive and the price of tislelizumab had a greater impact on the ICER value. The results of probability sensitivity analysis showed that when the WTP threshold was 3 times China’s GDP per capita in 2023， the probability of tislelizumab being cost-effective was 53.3%. CONCLUSIONS When the WTP threshold is 3 times China’s GDP per capita in 2023， tislelizumab plus chemotherapy is cost-effective for first-line treatment of locally advanced unresectable or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma， compared with placebo plus chemotherapy.

Objective To compare the effects of SARIMA,LSTM and EDM in predicting the incidence of HFRS in Weifang under different circumstances,and explore the best prediction model.Methods The monthly incidence of HFRS in Weifang from January 2011 to December 2017 was selected to construct the SARIMA model,univariate LSTM model,univariate EDM model,and SARIMAX model,multivariate LSTM model,and multivariate EDM model including meteorological factors.The monthly incidence from January 2018 to December 2018 was predicted,and the prediction effects of each model were compared.Results The MAPE of SARIMA model,univariate LSTM model,multivariate LSTM model,univariate EDM model,multivariate EDM model were 42.17%,48.40%,16.19%,55.00%,51.79%,respectively.Conclusion The multivariate LSTM model including meteorological factors had a good prediction effect on the incidence of HFRS in Weifang,and the prediction results could provide reference for the prevention and control of HFRS.

Objective:To investigate the distribution of potential suitable habitats for Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province during different climatic periods. Methods:The geographical location data of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2023 were collected through literature search and field ecological investigation. The environmental factor variables were downloaded from the WorldClim website and the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Platform. A combination of SDMtune, ENMTools packages, and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model were used to predict the potential habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province during different climatic periods and determine its dominant environmental factors. Among them, the time range of historical climatic period data was 1970 - 2000. The future climatic period data (2021 - 2040, 2041 - 2060) were selected as the low forcing scenario (SSP126 scenario) of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) in the Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution, to simulate the impact of global warming on the distribution of potential habitats for Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province. Results:A total of 83 geographical distribution sites of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province were obtained. After screening, 10 environmental factors were included in the MaxEnt model. Among them, the cumulative contribution percentage of annual precipitation, average annual temperature, and vegetation type was 67.3%. Compared with historical climatic period, the total potential habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province increased from 29.81 × 10 4 km 2 to 32.24 × 10 4 km 2 in 2041 - 2060. The center of potential habitats moved to 47.75° N, and 128.66° E, with a northwest offset of 126.07° and a migration distance of 45.83 km. Conclusion:With global climate warming, the total potential habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province has increased, showing an overall trend of migration to the northwest.