1.Relationship between folic acid and thyroid antibodies in early pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy
Tongkui WANG ; Xiuming SUN ; Xiaoli WANG ; Chunxiao ZHOU ; Hongmin WANG ; Xiaorong FU ; Kun YANG
Chinese Journal of Endocrine Surgery 2025;19(2):243-247
Objective:To analyze the relationship between folate and thyroid antibody in early pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcome in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy.Methods:The data of 97 pregnant women with hypothyroidism from Jul. 2020 to Mar. 2023 in the Obstetrics Department of Liaocheng Second People’s Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. The levels of folate, thyroglobulin antibody (TGAb) and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) were detected in the first trimester. According to whether adverse pregnancy outcome occurred in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy, they were divided into occurrence group and non-occurrence group. The clinical data of the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group were compared. Logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to analyze the predictive value of folic acid, TGAb, TPOAb and their combination on adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy.Results:Among 97 pregnant women, the incidence of adverse pregnancy outcome was 14.43% (14/97) .The folate level in the occurrence group was lower than non-occurrence group ( P<0.05) , and the TGAb and TPOAb levels in the occurrence group were higher than non-occurrence group ( P<0.05) . The occurrence group with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) , glutamine transpeptidase (GGT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were all higher than non-occurrence group ( P<0.05) .The folate, TGAb, and TPOAb levels were factors influencing adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism ( P<0.05) . The area under the curve (AUC) values of folate, TGAb, TPOAb and their combined prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy were 0.804, 0.843, 0.799, 0.909 ( P<0.05) , while the combined three with AUC values were higher ( P<0.05) . Conclusion:The folate, TGAb and TPOAb levels in early pregnancy can be used to evaluate adverse pregnancy outcomes in hypothyroidism pregnant women, and the combination of the three has a higher evaluation value.
2.Clinical features and sepsis-related factors in 159 patients with necrotizing soft tissue infection.
Hongmin LUO ; Xiaoyan WANG ; Xu MU ; Zeyang YAO ; Chuanwei SUN ; Lianghua MA ; Shaoyi ZHENG ; Huining BIAN ; Wen LAI
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(9):817-821
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the clinical features of patients with necrotizing soft tissue infection (NSTI) and the related factors for sepsis, so as to provide a basis for early intervention and improvement of patients' prognosis.
METHODS:
A retrospective case series study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of NSTI patients admitted to the department of burns and wound repair surgery of Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital from October 2021 to December 2024. Demographic information, underlying diseases, infection characteristics, laboratory test results and etiological findings at admission, treatment status, occurrence of complications (including sepsis) and prognosis were collected. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to identify the associated factors for sepsis in NSTI patients. Receiver operator characteristic curves (ROC curves) were plotted to evaluate the predictive value of individual and combined factors for sepsis.
RESULTS:
A total of 159 NSTI patients were enrolled, mainly middle-aged and elderly males. Most patients had comorbidities, including diabetes mellitus (110 cases, 69.2%) and hypertension (67 cases, 42.1%). The main infection site was the lower extremities (104 cases, 65.4%). Common symptoms included redness (96 cases, 60.4%), swelling (129 cases, 81.1%), local heat (60 cases, 37.7%), pain (100 cases, 62.9%), and skin ulceration or necrosis (9 cases, 5.7%). Imaging findings included soft tissue swelling (66 cases, 57.9%), gas accumulation (41 cases, 36.0%), and abnormal signal/density shadows (50 cases, 43.9%). Staphylococcus aureus was the main pathogenic bacterium [12.0% (31/259)], and drug-resistant Escherichia coli had the highest detection rate among drug-resistant bacteria [35.1% (13/37)]. Regarding debridement and repair, most patients (80 cases, 50.3%) underwent debridement ≥ 72 hours after admission, while only 10.1% (16 cases) received debridement within 6 hours. Most patients underwent multiple debridements, with 2 times of debridements being the most common (68 cases, 42.8%), and the maximum times of debridements reached 6. The largest number of patients received secondary suture (44 cases, 27.7%). In terms of complications, sepsis was the most common (66 cases, 41.51%), followed by acute kidney injury, respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), while disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) was the least common. During the follow-up period, 9 patients (5.66%) were readmitted within 90 days, and 11 patients died, with a mortality rate of 6.92%. Univariate analysis showed that diabetes, coronary heart disease, gout, body temperature, heart rate, C-reactive protein, platelet count, total bilirubin, albumin, creatinine, out-of-hospital treatment, and out-of-hospital use of antimicrobial agents were significantly associated with sepsis in NSTI patients (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that coronary heart disease [odds ratio (OR) = 30.085, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 2.105-956.935], C-reactive protein (OR = 1.026, 95%CI was 1.009-1.054), and total bilirubin (OR = 1.436, 95%CI was 1.188-1.948) were independent associated factors for sepsis in NSTI patients (all P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis revealed that the combination of the three predictors yielded the highest AUC for predicting sepsis in NSTI patients compared to any individual predictor [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.799 (95%CI was 0.721-0.878)].
CONCLUSIONS
The clinical features of NSTI patients show certain regularity. Coronary heart disease, C-reactive protein, and total bilirubin are independent associated factors for sepsis in NSTI patients.
Humans
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Male
;
Sepsis
;
Soft Tissue Infections/microbiology*
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Adult
;
Prognosis
;
Risk Factors
;
Necrosis
;
Logistic Models
;
Fasciitis, Necrotizing
3.Expert consensus on visualized tele-round and quality control management based on the improvement of clinical practice ability
Wanhong YIN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Ran ZHOU ; Dawei LIU ; Yan KANG ; Yaoqing TANG ; Xiaochun MA ; Jianguo LI ; Zhenjie HU ; Haitao ZHANG ; Wei HE ; Lixia LIU ; Wenjin CHEN ; Ran ZHU ; Jun WU ; Hongmin ZHANG ; Lina ZHANG ; Wenzhao CHAI ; Shihong ZHU ; Wangbin XU ; Rongqing SUN ; Xiangyou YU ; Tianjiao SONG ; Ying ZHU ; Hong REN ; Ai SHANMU ; Qing ZHANG ; Wei FANG ; Xiuling SHANG ; Liwen LYU ; Shuhan CAI ; Xin DING ; Heng ZHANG ; Guang FENG ; Lipeng ZHANG ; Bo HU ; Dong ZHANG ; Weidong WU ; Feng SHEN ; Xiaojun YANG ; Zhenguo ZENG ; Qibing HUANG ; Xueying ZENG ; Tongjuan ZOU ; Milin PENG ; Yulong YAO ; Mingming CHEN ; Hui LIAN ; Jingmei WANG ; Yong LI ; Feng QU ; Gang YE ; Rongli YANG ; Xiukai CHEN ; Suwei LI ; Juxiang WANG ; Yangong CHAO
Chinese Journal of Internal Medicine 2025;64(2):101-109
Turning to critical illness is a common stage of various diseases and injuries before death. Patients usually have complex health conditions, while the treatment process involves a wide range of content, along with high requirements for doctor′s professionalism and multi-specialty teamwork, as well as a great demand for time-sensitive treatments. However, this is not matched with critical care professionals and the current state of medical care in China. Telemedicine, which shortens the distance of medical professionals and the gap of disease diagnosis and treatments in various regions through electronic information, can effectively solve the current problem. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a standardized, high-quality visualization telemedicine round system .Therefore, experts have been organized to search domestic and foreign literature on telemedicine round for critically ill patients and to form this consensus based on clinical experiences so as to further improve the level of critical care treatments in regions.
4.Construction and validation of frailty risk nomogram model for patients with acute myocardial infarction after interventional treatment
Jing ZHAO ; Yanzhe WANG ; Chunxiao JI ; Xiu YANG ; Pingfan WANG ; Wencai LIU ; Engang HAO ; Qingning LIU ; Hongmin SUN ; Zishuai WU
Journal of Interventional Radiology 2025;34(6):656-663
Objective To discuss the factors influencing the occurrence of frailty in patients with acute myocardial infarction(AMI)after receiving interventional treatment,and to construct a prediction model,to draw a nomogram,and to make the validation of the model.Methods Using convenient sampling method,a total of 462 patients with AMI,who were admitted to the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine of three Grade Ⅲ-A hospitals in Shandong Province of China from July 2023 to January 2024,were selected as the study subjects.Among them,324 AMI patients encountered from July 2023 to November 2023 were selected as modeling group,and logistic regression was used to construct a risk prediction model and draw a nomogram to visualize the model.The remaining 138 AMI patients encountered from December 2023 to January 2024 were used as the validation group.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow testing were adopted to verify the predictive effect of the model.Results Of 324 patients in the modeling group,170(52.47%)developed frailty.Univariate analysis showed that significant differences in age,education level,body mass index(BMI),Charlson comorbidity index,grip strength,walking speed,brain natriuretic peptide precursor level,physical exercise,multiple medication,and kinesophobia existed between the two groups(all P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age,BMI,Charlson comorbidity index,grip strength,walking speed,NT-ProBNP precursor level,physical exercise,multiple medication,and kinesophobia were the influencing factors of frailty in patients with AMI after receiving interventional treatment,with an OR value of 1.061,0.630,1.529,0.931,0.005,0.358,1.783,2.929,and 0.497 respectively.The above nine factors were used as independent variables to draw the nomogram,the area under ROC curve of the model was 0.851(95%CI:0.809-0.892),the optimal critical value was 0.562,the sensitivity was 84.1%,and the specificity was 72.1%.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit testing showed that the model had anx2=12.957 and P=0.113.Conclusion The frailty condition of AMI patients after receiving interventional treatment is at a low to medium levels.The frailty risk prediction model constructed in this study has good prediction effect,which can provide guidance for clinical nurses to timely identify high-risk patients and to promptly adopt interventional measures.
5.Relationship between folic acid and thyroid antibodies in early pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy
Tongkui WANG ; Xiuming SUN ; Xiaoli WANG ; Chunxiao ZHOU ; Hongmin WANG ; Xiaorong FU ; Kun YANG
Chinese Journal of Endocrine Surgery 2025;19(2):243-247
Objective:To analyze the relationship between folate and thyroid antibody in early pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcome in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy.Methods:The data of 97 pregnant women with hypothyroidism from Jul. 2020 to Mar. 2023 in the Obstetrics Department of Liaocheng Second People’s Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. The levels of folate, thyroglobulin antibody (TGAb) and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) were detected in the first trimester. According to whether adverse pregnancy outcome occurred in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy, they were divided into occurrence group and non-occurrence group. The clinical data of the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group were compared. Logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to analyze the predictive value of folic acid, TGAb, TPOAb and their combination on adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy.Results:Among 97 pregnant women, the incidence of adverse pregnancy outcome was 14.43% (14/97) .The folate level in the occurrence group was lower than non-occurrence group ( P<0.05) , and the TGAb and TPOAb levels in the occurrence group were higher than non-occurrence group ( P<0.05) . The occurrence group with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) , glutamine transpeptidase (GGT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were all higher than non-occurrence group ( P<0.05) .The folate, TGAb, and TPOAb levels were factors influencing adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism ( P<0.05) . The area under the curve (AUC) values of folate, TGAb, TPOAb and their combined prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with hypothyroidism during pregnancy were 0.804, 0.843, 0.799, 0.909 ( P<0.05) , while the combined three with AUC values were higher ( P<0.05) . Conclusion:The folate, TGAb and TPOAb levels in early pregnancy can be used to evaluate adverse pregnancy outcomes in hypothyroidism pregnant women, and the combination of the three has a higher evaluation value.
6.Expert consensus on visualized tele-round and quality control management based on the improvement of clinical practice ability
Wanhong YIN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Ran ZHOU ; Dawei LIU ; Yan KANG ; Yaoqing TANG ; Xiaochun MA ; Jianguo LI ; Zhenjie HU ; Haitao ZHANG ; Wei HE ; Lixia LIU ; Wenjin CHEN ; Ran ZHU ; Jun WU ; Hongmin ZHANG ; Lina ZHANG ; Wenzhao CHAI ; Shihong ZHU ; Wangbin XU ; Rongqing SUN ; Xiangyou YU ; Tianjiao SONG ; Ying ZHU ; Hong REN ; Ai SHANMU ; Qing ZHANG ; Wei FANG ; Xiuling SHANG ; Liwen LYU ; Shuhan CAI ; Xin DING ; Heng ZHANG ; Guang FENG ; Lipeng ZHANG ; Bo HU ; Dong ZHANG ; Weidong WU ; Feng SHEN ; Xiaojun YANG ; Zhenguo ZENG ; Qibing HUANG ; Xueying ZENG ; Tongjuan ZOU ; Milin PENG ; Yulong YAO ; Mingming CHEN ; Hui LIAN ; Jingmei WANG ; Yong LI ; Feng QU ; Gang YE ; Rongli YANG ; Xiukai CHEN ; Suwei LI ; Juxiang WANG ; Yangong CHAO
Chinese Journal of Internal Medicine 2025;64(2):101-109
Turning to critical illness is a common stage of various diseases and injuries before death. Patients usually have complex health conditions, while the treatment process involves a wide range of content, along with high requirements for doctor′s professionalism and multi-specialty teamwork, as well as a great demand for time-sensitive treatments. However, this is not matched with critical care professionals and the current state of medical care in China. Telemedicine, which shortens the distance of medical professionals and the gap of disease diagnosis and treatments in various regions through electronic information, can effectively solve the current problem. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a standardized, high-quality visualization telemedicine round system .Therefore, experts have been organized to search domestic and foreign literature on telemedicine round for critically ill patients and to form this consensus based on clinical experiences so as to further improve the level of critical care treatments in regions.
7.A multi-dimensional analysis of pollen broadcasting concerns in Chinese population: a large-scale multi-center cross-sectional survey
Chiyu XU ; Yanshu ZHANG ; Ning LUAN ; Xiangyi LIU ; Dayang QIN ; Hongmin WANG ; Xuping XIAO ; Shuihong ZHOU ; Jie ZHANG ; Ping ZHANG ; Yuqing BAI ; Pengpeng WANG ; Yan QI ; Zhongwu SUN ; Zhuang LIU ; Luo BA ; Wenchao WANG ; Xing LU ; Min WANG ; Rui GUO ; Deyi SUN ; Liyuan TAO ; Li ZHU
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2024;59(1):2-11
Objective:To investigate the concern about pollen broadcasting in Chinese population from multiple dimensions and to understand the information about allergic rhinitis (AR) in China by analyzing related factors.Methods:From March 1 to September 30, 2022, a large-scale multi-center cross-sectional survey was conducted based on the Questionnaire Star platform in 21 Chinese hospitals. A total of 7 056 subjects from 7 regions in China: Northeast, North, East, Central, South, Southwest, and Northwest China were included. Basic characteristics (including social demographic characteristics and disease characteristics of AR patients), concern about pollen broadcasting, the willingness of pollen-induced AR (PiAR) patients to receive pollen broadcasting, and the treatment satisfaction rate of AR patients were collected. The chi-square test, multivariate linear regression model, and Logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the concern about pollen broadcasting in the Chinese population and related factors from multiple dimensions.Results:Among 7 056 subjects, 23.02% were concerned about pollen broadcasting. Among 3 176 self-reported AR and 1 019 PiAR patients, 25.60% and 39.16% were concerned about pollen broadcasting, respectively, which was higher than that of non-AR or non-PiAR subjects ( χ2 value was 21.74 and 175.11, respectively, both P<0.001). Among AR patients, the proportion of spring and autumn allergen-positive patients concerned about pollen broadcasting was higher than that in perennial allergen-positive patients ( χ2 value was 20.90 and 19.51, respectively, both P<0.001). The proportion of AR patients with asthma, sinusitis, allergic conjunctivitis, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was higher than those without complications ( χ2 value was 50.83, 21.97, 56.78, 7.62, respectively, all P<0.05). The proportion of AR patients in North China who could find pollen broadcasting locally was 31.01%, significantly higher than those in other regions (all P<0.05). Multivariate linear regression model analysis showed that among PiAR patients, those with higher per capita household income and higher AR disease cognition levels had been concerned about pollen broadcasting in the past, and those complicated with allergic conjunctivitis had stronger intention to receive pollen broadcasting (B value was 0.24, 0.13, 0.66, 0.47, respectively, all P<0.05). The higher the disease cognition level of PiAR patients, the stronger their willingness to actively participate in treatment ( R2=0.72, P<0.001). Only 18.89% of AR patients felt satisfied with the treatment effect. Logistic regression analysis showed that in AR patients, the treatment satisfaction rate was significantly higher among those concerned about pollen broadcasting compared to those who were not ( OR=1.83, P<0.001). Conclusions:Currently, the dissemination of pollen broadcasting in China is hindered by various factors such as disease cognition level. The treatment satisfaction among AR patients remains unsatisfactory.
8.TCM Guidelines for Diagnosis and Treatment of Chronic Cough in Children
Xi MING ; Liqun WU ; Ziwei WANG ; Bo WANG ; Jialin ZHENG ; Jingwei HUO ; Mei HAN ; Xiaochun FENG ; Baoqing ZHANG ; Xia ZHAO ; Mengqing WANG ; Zheng XUE ; Ke CHANG ; Youpeng WANG ; Yanhong QIN ; Bin YUAN ; Hua CHEN ; Lining WANG ; Xianqing REN ; Hua XU ; Liping SUN ; Zhenqi WU ; Yun ZHAO ; Xinmin LI ; Min LI ; Jian CHEN ; Junhong WANG ; Yonghong JIANG ; Yongbin YAN ; Hengmiao GAO ; Hongmin FU ; Yongkun HUANG ; Jinghui YANG ; Zhu CHEN ; Lei XIONG
Journal of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;40(7):722-732
Following the principles of evidence-based medicine,in accordance with the structure and drafting rules of standardized documents,based on literature research,according to the characteristics of chronic cough in children and issues that need to form a consensus,the TCM Guidelines for Diagnosis and Treatment of Chronic Cough in Children was formulated based on the Delphi method,expert discussion meetings,and public solicitation of opinions.The guideline includes scope of application,terms and definitions,eti-ology and diagnosis,auxiliary examination,treatment,prevention and care.The aim is to clarify the optimal treatment plan of Chinese medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of this disease,and to provide guidance for improving the clinical diagnosis and treatment of chronic cough in children with Chinese medicine.
9.Effects of antibacterial absorbable suture closure in the repair of small range of bone defect wounds due to deep sternal wound infection after median thoracotomy
Hanhua LI ; Bing XIONG ; Zu'an LIU ; Zhifeng HUANG ; Chuanwei SUN ; Hongmin LUO ; Lianghua MA ; Huining BIAN ; Shaoyi ZHENG ; Wen LAI
Chinese Journal of Burns 2024;40(5):461-467
Objective:To investigate the effects of antibacterial absorbable suture closure in the repair of small range of bone defect wounds due to deep sternal wound infection after median thoracotomy.Methods:This study was a retrospective non-randomized clinical controlled study. A total of 32 patients (20 males and 12 females, aged (58±11) years) who met the inclusion criteria and underwent closure with antibacterial absorbable sutures (hereinafter referred to as direct closure surgery) admitted to Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital of Southern Medical University (hereinafter referred to as our hospital) from October 2017 to December 2021 were included in direct closure group. A total of 39 patients (27 males and 12 females, aged (59±11) years) who met the inclusion criteria and received bilateral pectoralis major muscle flap packing repair admitted to our hospital from January 2015 to January 2020, were included in muscle flap packing group. In the two groups, sternal infected wounds were thoroughly debrided during stage Ⅰ surgery, followed by wound repair during stage Ⅱ surgery. The width of sternal cross-section defects after debridement was less than 1 cm for patients in the two groups. For patients in direct closure group, stage Ⅱ wound repair involved intermittent sutures to the anterior sternal plate or full-thickness sternum with a total of 6 or 7 double sternal sutures. Relevant data including the duration of the stage Ⅱ wound repair surgery and the volume of blood loss during surgery, length of hospital stay, and bacterial wound infection of patients in the two groups were recorded. The postoperative complications and wound healing of patients in the two groups were recorded. During follow-up, the wound infection or recurrence of patients in the two groups and the sternal healing of patients in direct closure group were observed.Results:Compared with those in muscle flap packing group, the duration of stage Ⅱ wound repair surgery and length of hospital stay of patients in direct closure group were significantly shorter (with t values of 13.61 and 6.25, respectively, P<0.05), and there was no statistically significant difference in intraoperative blood loss volume of the stage Ⅱ wound repair surgery between the two groups ( P>0.05). The main bacterial infection in the two groups was Staphylococcus. In direct closure group, one patient had exudation in the wound two weeks post-operation, however the wound healed well after two weeks of conservative dressing changes; the wounds of the other patients healed well. In muscle flap packing group, 5 patients had postoperative complications, of which one patient died, and the wounds of 4 patients healed after dressing change or reoperation; the wounds of the other patients healed well. There was no statistically significant difference in complication incidence of patients between the two groups ( P>0.05). During the follow-up of 22-45 months, there was no re-infection or recurrence in the wound of patients in direct closure group and surviving patients in muscle flap packing group, the sternum of patients in the direct closure group achieved anatomical union. Conclusions:Direct closure surgery can not only effectively repair sternal cross-sectional defects with width below 1 cm due to deep sternal wound infections after median thoracotomy, but can also significantly shorten the operation time and duration of hospitalization.
10.Establishment of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model of Tuberculosis Incidence in Heze City and Evaluation of its Prediction Effect
Fusheng SUN ; Hongmin LIU ; Jing WANG
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics 2024;41(2):185-189
Objective An autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)was established to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in Heze in 2022.Methods Based on the monthly registered incidence of tuberculosis patients in Heze city from 2010 to 2020,the optimal ARIMA model was established to predict the incidence in 2021 and compare with the actual value,so as to evaluate the prediction effect and predict the incidence trend in 2022.Results The incidence of tuberculosis in Heze city showed a decreasing trend year by year,with certain seasonal changes.The optimal model was ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12,the fitting results showed that the overall prediction error rate was 2.59%and the mean absolute percentage error was 17.76%in 2021.The number of cases predicted in 2022 was 1644,which continued to show a downward trend and the epidemic situation was stable.Conclusion ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model can better predict the short-term incidence trend of tuberculosis in Heze city,but it should be modified according to the changes of monitoring data to improve the prediction accuracy.

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