1.Spicy food consumption and risk of vascular disease: Evidence from a large-scale Chinese prospective cohort of 0.5 million people.
Dongfang YOU ; Dianjianyi SUN ; Ziyu ZHAO ; Mingyu SONG ; Lulu PAN ; Yaqian WU ; Yingdan TANG ; Mengyi LU ; Fang SHAO ; Sipeng SHEN ; Jianling BAI ; Honggang YI ; Ruyang ZHANG ; Yongyue WEI ; Hongxia MA ; Hongyang XU ; Canqing YU ; Jun LV ; Pei PEI ; Ling YANG ; Yiping CHEN ; Zhengming CHEN ; Hongbing SHEN ; Feng CHEN ; Yang ZHAO ; Liming LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(14):1696-1704
BACKGROUND:
Spicy food consumption has been reported to be inversely associated with mortality from multiple diseases. However, the effect of spicy food intake on the incidence of vascular diseases in the Chinese population remains unclear. This study was conducted to explore this association.
METHODS:
This study was performed using the large-scale China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) prospective cohort of 486,335 participants. The primary outcomes were vascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD), major coronary events (MCEs), cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and non-stroke cerebrovascular disease. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the association between spicy food consumption and incident vascular diseases. Subgroup analysis was also performed to evaluate the heterogeneity of the association between spicy food consumption and the risk of vascular disease stratified by several basic characteristics. In addition, the joint effects of spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of vascular disease were also evaluated, and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the reliability of the association results.
RESULTS:
During a median follow-up time of 12.1 years, a total of 136,125 patients with vascular disease, 46,689 patients with IHD, 10,097 patients with MCEs, 80,114 patients with cerebrovascular disease, 56,726 patients with stroke, and 40,098 patients with non-stroke cerebrovascular disease were identified. Participants who consumed spicy food 1-2 days/week (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = [0.93, 0.97], P <0.001), 3-5 days/week (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = [0.94, 0.99], P = 0.003), and 6-7 days/week (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.002) had a significantly lower risk of vascular disease than those who consumed spicy food less than once a week ( Ptrend <0.001), especially in those who were younger and living in rural areas. Notably, the disease-based subgroup analysis indicated that the inverse associations remained in IHD ( Ptrend = 0.011) and MCEs ( Ptrend = 0.002) risk. Intriguingly, there was an interaction effect between spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of IHD ( Pinteraction = 0.037).
CONCLUSIONS
Our findings support an inverse association between spicy food consumption and vascular disease in the Chinese population, which may provide additional dietary guidance for the prevention of vascular diseases.
Humans
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Male
;
Female
;
Prospective Studies
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Middle Aged
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Aged
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Vascular Diseases/etiology*
;
Risk Factors
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Adult
;
Proportional Hazards Models
;
Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology*
;
East Asian People
2.Multicenter retrospect analysis of early clinical features and analysis of risk factors on prognosis of elderly patients with severe burns
Qimin MA ; Wenbin TANG ; Xiaojian LI ; Fei CHANG ; Xi YIN ; Zhaohong CHEN ; Guohua WU ; Chengde XIA ; Xiaoliang LI ; Deyun WANG ; Zhigang CHU ; Yi ZHANG ; Lei WANG ; Choulang WU ; Yalin TONG ; Pei CUI ; Guanghua GUO ; Zhihao ZHU ; Shengyu HUANG ; Liu CHANG ; Rui LIU ; Yongji LIU ; Yusong WANG ; Xiaobin LIU ; Tuo SHEN ; Feng ZHU
Chinese Journal of Burns 2024;40(3):249-257
Objective:To investigate the early clinical characteristics of elderly patients with severe burns and the risk factors on prognosis.Methods:This study was a retrospective case series study. Clinical data of 124 elderly patients with severe burns who met the inclusion criteria and were admitted to the 12 hospitals from January 2015 to December 2020 were collected, including 4 patients from the Fourth People's Hospital of Dalian, 5 patients from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, 22 patients from Guangzhou Red Cross Hospital of Jinan University, 5 patients from Heilongjiang Provincial Hospital, 27 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, 9 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 10 patients from Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, 9 patients from Tongren Hospital of Wuhan University & Wuhan Third Hospital, 12 patients from the 924 th Hospital of PLA, 6 patients from Zhangjiagang First People's Hospital, 4 patients from Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province, and 11 patients from Zhengzhou First People's Hospital. The patients' overall clinical characteristics, such as gender, age, body mass index, total burn area, full-thickness burn area, inhalation injury, causative factors, whether combined with underlying medical diseases, and admission time after injury were recorded. According to the survival outcome within 28 days after injury, the patients were divided into survival group (89 cases) and death group (35 cases). The following data of patients were compared between the two groups, including the basic data and injuries (the same as the overall clinical characteristics ahead); the coagulation indexes within the first 24 hours of injury such as prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), thrombin time, D-dimer, fibrinogen degradation product (FDP), international normalized ratio (INR), and fibrinogen; the blood routine indexes within the first 24 hours of injury such as white blood cell count, platelet count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, monocyte count, red blood cell count, hemoglobin, and hematocrit; the organ function indexes within the first 24 hours of injury such as direct bilirubin, total bilirubin, urea, serum creatinine, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, total protein, albumin, globulin, blood glucose, triglyceride, total cholesterol, alkaline phosphatase, creatine kinase, electrolyte indexes (potassium, sodium, chlorine, calcium, magnesium, and phosphorus in blood), uric acid, myoglobin, and brain natriuretic peptide; the infection and blood gas indexes within the first 24 hours of injury such as procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, pH value, oxygenation index, base excess, and lactate; treatment such as whether conducted with mechanical ventilation, whether conducted with continuous renal replacement therapy, whether conducted with anticoagulation therapy, whether applied with vasoactive drugs, and fluid resuscitation. The analysis was conducted to screen the independent risk factors for the mortality within 28 days after injury in elderly patients with severe burns. Results:Among 124 patients, there were 82 males and 42 females, aged 60-97 years, with body mass index of 23.44 (21.09, 25.95) kg/m 2, total burn area of 54.00% (42.00%, 75.00%) total body surface area (TBSA), and full-thickness burn area of 25.00% (10.00%, 40.00%) TBSA. The patients were mainly combined with moderate to severe inhalation injury and caused by flame burns. There were 43 cases with underlying medical diseases. The majority of patients were admitted to the hospital within 8 hours after injury. There were statistically significant differences between patients in the 2 groups in terms of age, total burn area, full-thickness burn area, and inhalation injury, and PT, APTT, D-dimer, FDP, INR, white blood cell count, platelet count, urea, serum creatinine, blood glucose, blood sodium, uric acid, myoglobin, and urine volume within the first 24 hours of injury (with Z values of 2.37, 5.49, 5.26, 5.97, 2.18, 1.95, 2.68, 2.68, 2.51, 2.82, 2.14, 3.40, 5.31, 3.41, 2.35, 3.81, 2.16, and -3.82, respectively, P<0.05); there were statistically significant differences between two groups of patients in whether conducted with mechanical ventilation and whether applied with vasoactive drugs (with χ2 values of 9.44 and 28.50, respectively, P<0.05). Age, total burn area, full-thickness burn area, serum creatinine within the first 24 hours of injury, and APTT within the first 24 hours of injury were the independent risk factors for the mortality within 28 days after injury in elderly patients with severe burns (with odds ratios of 1.17, 1.10, 1.10, 1.09, and 1.27, 95% confidence intervals of 1.03-1.40, 1.04-1.21, 1.05-1.19, 1.05-1.17, and 1.07-1.69, respectively, P<0.05). Conclusions:The elderly patients with severe burns had the injuries mainly from flame burns, often accompanied by moderate to severe inhalation injury and enhanced inflammatory response, elevated blood glucose levels, activated fibrinolysis, and impaired organ function in the early stage, which are associated with their prognosis. Age, total burn area, full-thickness burn area, and serum creatinine and APTT within the first 24 hours of injury are the independent risk factors for death within 28 days after injury in this population.
3.Comparison of initiation of antihypertensive therapy strategies for primary preven-tion of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese population:A decision-analytic Markov modelling study
Tianjing ZHOU ; Qiuping LIU ; Minglu ZHANG ; Xiaofei LIU ; Jiali KANG ; Peng SHEN ; Hongbo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):441-447
Objective:To evaluate the health benefits and intervention efficiency of different strategies of initiating antihypertensive therapy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou(CHERRY)study.Methods:A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different antihy-pertensive initiation strategies,including:Strategy 1,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with systolic blood pressure(SBP)≥140 mmHg(2020 Chinese guideline on the primary preven-tion of cardiovascular diseases);Strategy 2,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥130 mmHg;Strategy 3,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP ≥140 mmHg,or with SBP between 130 and 140 mmHg and at high risk of cardiovascular diseases(2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline for the prevention,detection,evaluation,and management of high blood pressure in adults);Strategy 4,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥ 160 mmHg,or with SBP between 140 and 160 mmHg and at high risk of car-diovascular diseases(2019 United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline for the hypertension in adults:Diagnosis and management).The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was de-fined as the predicted risk over 10%based on the 2019 World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts.Different strategies were simulated by the Markov model for ten years(cycles),with parame-ters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature.After ten cycles of simulation,the numbers of quality-adjusted life years(QALY),cardiovascular events and all-cause deaths were calculated to evaluate the health benefits of each strategy,and the numbers needed to treat(NNT)for each cardiovas-cular event or all-cause death could be prevented were calculated to assess the intervention efficiency.One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rates of cardiovascular disease and probabilis-tic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.Results:A to-tal of 213 987 Chinese adults aged 35-79 years without cardiovascular diseases were included.Com-pared with strategy 1,the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 2 increased by 666(95%UI:334-975),while the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented increased by 10(95%UI:7-20).In contrast to strategy 1,the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 3 increased by 388(95%UI:194-569),and the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 6(95%UI:4-12),suggesting that strategy 3 had better health benefits and intervention efficiency.Compared to strategy 1,although the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented decreased by 193(95%UI:98-281)in strategy 4,the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 18(95%UI:13-37)with better efficiency.The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.Conclusion:When initiating antihypertensive therapy in an economically developed area of China,the strategy combined with cardiovascular risk assessment is more efficient than those purely based on the SBP threshold.The cardiovascular risk assessment strategy with different SBP thresholds is suggested to balance health benefits and intervention efficiency in diverse populations.
4.A multicenter study of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen,China
Li-Xiu SHI ; Jin-Xing FENG ; Yan-Fang WEI ; Xin-Ru LU ; Yu-Xi ZHANG ; Lin-Ying YANG ; Sheng-Nan HE ; Pei-Juan CHEN ; Jing HAN ; Cheng CHEN ; Hui-Ying TU ; Zhang-Bin YU ; Jin-Jie HUANG ; Shu-Juan ZENG ; Wan-Ling CHEN ; Ying LIU ; Yan-Ping GUO ; Jiao-Yu MAO ; Xiao-Dong LI ; Qian-Shen ZHANG ; Zhi-Li XIE ; Mei-Ying HUANG ; Kun-Shan YAN ; Er-Ya YING ; Jun CHEN ; Yan-Rong WANG ; Ya-Ping LIU ; Bo SONG ; Hua-Yan LIU ; Xiao-Dong XIAO ; Hong TANG ; Yu-Na WANG ; Yin-Sha CAI ; Qi LONG ; Han-Qiang XU ; Hui-Zhan WANG ; Qian SUN ; Fang HAN ; Rui-Biao ZHANG ; Chuan-Zhong YANG ; Lei DOU ; Hui-Ju SHI ; Rui WANG ; Ping JIANG ; Shenzhen Neonatal Data Network
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2024;26(5):450-455
Objective To investigate the incidence rate,clinical characteristics,and prognosis of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen,China.Methods Led by Shenzhen Children's Hospital,the Shenzhen Neonatal Data Collaboration Network organized 21 institutions to collect 36 cases of neonatal stroke from January 2020 to December 2022.The incidence,clinical characteristics,treatment,and prognosis of neonatal stroke in Shenzhen were analyzed.Results The incidence rate of neonatal stroke in 21 hospitals from 2020 to 2022 was 1/15 137,1/6 060,and 1/7 704,respectively.Ischemic stroke accounted for 75%(27/36);boys accounted for 64%(23/36).Among the 36 neonates,31(86%)had disease onset within 3 days after birth,and 19(53%)had convulsion as the initial presentation.Cerebral MRI showed that 22 neonates(61%)had left cerebral infarction and 13(36%)had basal ganglia infarction.Magnetic resonance angiography was performed for 12 neonates,among whom 9(75%)had involvement of the middle cerebral artery.Electroencephalography was performed for 29 neonates,with sharp waves in 21 neonates(72%)and seizures in 10 neonates(34%).Symptomatic/supportive treatment varied across different hospitals.Neonatal Behavioral Neurological Assessment was performed for 12 neonates(33%,12/36),with a mean score of(32±4)points.The prognosis of 27 neonates was followed up to around 12 months of age,with 44%(12/27)of the neonates having a good prognosis.Conclusions Ischemic stroke is the main type of neonatal stroke,often with convulsions as the initial presentation,involvement of the middle cerebral artery,sharp waves on electroencephalography,and a relatively low neurodevelopment score.Symptomatic/supportive treatment is the main treatment method,and some neonates tend to have a poor prognosis.
5.Comparison of aspirin treatment strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases: A decision-analytic Markov modelling study.
Ming Lu ZHANG ; Qiu Ping LIU ; Chao GONG ; Jia Min WANG ; Tian Jing ZHOU ; Xiao Fei LIU ; Peng SHEN ; Hong Bo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2023;55(3):480-487
OBJECTIVE:
To compare the expected population impact of benefit and risk of aspirin treatment strategies for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by different guidelines in the Chinese Electronic Health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study.
METHODS:
A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different strategies of aspirin treatment, including: Strategy ①: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases; Strategy ②: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-59 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2022 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease; Strategy ③: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk and blood pressure well-controlled (< 150/90 mmHg), recommended by the 2019 Guideline on the Assessment and Management of Cardio-vascular Risk in China. The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was defined as the 10-year predicted risk over 10% based on the 2019 World Health Organization non-laboratory model. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and the number needed to treat (NNT) for each ischemic event (including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were calculated to assess the effectiveness of the different strategies. The number needed to harm (NNH) for each bleeding event (including hemorrhagic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding) was calculated to assess the safety. The NNT for each net benefit (i.e., the difference of the number of ischemic events could be prevented and the number of bleeding events would be added) was also calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of the incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.
RESULTS:
A total of 212 153 Chinese adults, were included in this study. The number of people who were recommended for aspirin treatment Strategies ①-③ was 34 235, 2 813, and 25 111, respectively. The Strategy ③ could gain the most QALY of 403 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 222-511] years. Compared with Strategy ①, Strategy ③ had similar efficiency but better safety, with the extra NNT of 4 (95%UI: 3-4) and NNH of 39 (95%UI: 19-132). The NNT per net benefit was 131 (95%UI: 102-239) for Strategy ①, 256 (95%UI: 181-737) for Strategy ②, and 132 (95%UI: 104-232) for Strategy ③, making Strategy ③ the most favorable option with a better QALY and safety, along with similar efficiency in terms of net benefit. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
The aspirin treatment strategies recommended by the updated guidelines on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases showed a net benefit for high-risk Chinese adults from developed areas. However, to balance effectiveness and safety, aspirin is suggested to be used for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases with consideration for blood pressure control, resulting in better intervention efficiency.
Adult
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Humans
;
Aspirin/therapeutic use*
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Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage
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Myocardial Infarction/prevention & control*
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Primary Prevention/methods*
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Middle Aged
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Aged
6.Applications of the NDR and DIAL models for risk prediction on cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes in Ningbo
Qianqian LI ; Jingyuan LIANG ; Jiamin WANG ; Peng SHEN ; Yexiang SUN ; Qi CHEN ; Jinguo WU ; Ping LU ; Jingyi ZHANG ; Hongbo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2022;43(6):945-952
Objective:To validate the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction models based on the Sweden National Diabetes Register (NDR) and Diabetes Lifetime-perspective prediction (DIAL) model for assessing risks of 5-year and 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes.Methods:Based on the Chinese Electronic Health Records Research in Yinzhou study, 83 503 patients with type 2 diabetes aged 30-75 years without a history of CVD at baseline were included from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020. Recalibrated NDR model was used to estimate 5-year risk, while the recalibrated DIAL model was used to predict 5-year and 10-year risks. The competing events adjusted Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to obtain the observed cardiovascular events. Discrimination C statistics evaluated model accuracy, calibration χ2 value, and calibration plots. Results:Through a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 7 326 cardiovascular events, and 2 937 non-vascular deaths were identified among a total of 83 503 subjects. The recalibrated NDR model overestimated 5-year risk by 39.4% in men and 8.6% in women, whereas the overestimation for the recalibrated DIAL model was 14.6% in men and 50.1% in women. The DIAL model had a better discriminative ability ( C-statistic=0.681, 95% CI: 0.672-0.690) than NDR model ( C-statistic=0.667, 95% CI: 0.657-0.677) in 5-year risk prediction for men, and the models had a similar ability for women ( C-statistic=0.699, 95% CI: 0.690-0.708 for NDR and C-statistic=0.698, 95% CI: 0.689-0.706 for DIAL). The prediction accuracy of the DIAL model was improved in the 10-year risk, with the underestimation being 1.6% for men and the overestimation being 12.8% for women. Conclusions:Both recalibrated NDR and DIAL models overestimated 5-year cardiovascular risk in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes, while the higher overestimation was shown using the DIAL model. However, the improvement was found in predicting 10-year CVD risk using the DIAL model, which suggested the value of lifetime risk prediction and indicated the need for research on the lifetime risk prediction model for cardiovascular risk assessment in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes.
7. Distribution of mesencephalic astrocyte derived neurotrophic factor in human, mouse and rat brain
Xiao-Lu TANG ; Pei WANG ; Yan-Yan SU ; Xue-Yan WU ; Cong-Cong DENG ; Ming-Hui CHEN ; Kai TIAN ; Hui MA ; Yu-Xian SHEN ; Yu-Xian SHEN
Acta Anatomica Sinica 2022;53(5):551-556
Objective To observe the distribution of mesencephalic astrocyte derived neurotrophic factor (MANF) within the brain in human, mice and rats and the comparison across the species. Methods An immunohistochemical method was applied to investigate the expression of MANF and to compare the differences among species in the brain of human specimens ( n = 5) , mice ( n = 6) , and rats ( n = 6). Results The expression of MANF varied in different brain regions in human, mice and rats. In human, in the cortex, the expression of MANF was the highest among all brain regions. In the subcortical areas or the nucleus, brainstem and cerebellum expression level of MANF were relatively lower. The distribution of MANF in mouse and rat brain were slightly different from that in human brain, but generally consistent. Conclusion The distribution pattern of MANF is similar across the species, however, within a species, MANF expression levels varies in different brain regions.
8.Effectiveness of statin treatment strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population: A decision-analytic Markov model.
Chao GONG ; Qiu Ping LIU ; Jia Min WANG ; Xiao Fei LIU ; Ming Lu ZHANG ; Han YANG ; Peng SHEN ; Hong Bo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2022;54(3):443-449
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the effectiveness of statin treatment strategies based on risk assessment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases by the Western guidelines in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed areas using data from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study.
METHODS:
A Markov model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the following statin treatment strategies, including: (1) usual care without cardiovascular risk assessment(Strategy 0); (2) using the World Health Organization (WHO) non-laboratory-based risk charts with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 20%) (Strategy 1); (3) using the WHO laboratory-based risk charts with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 20%) (Strategy 2); and (4) using the Prediction for Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Risk in China (China-PAR) model with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 10%, Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, adults in the medium-risk group received lifestyle intervention, and adults in the high-risk group received life-style intervention and statin treatment under these strategies. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) using parameters from the CHERRY study, published data, meta-analyses and systematic reviews for Chinese. The number of cardiovascular events or deaths, as well as the number need to treat (NNT) with statin per cardiovascular event or death prevented, were calculated to compare the effectiveness of different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.
RESULTS:
Totally 225 811 Chinese adults aged 40-79 years without cardiovascular diseases at baseline were enrolled. In contrast to the usual care without risk assessment-based statin treatment strategy, Strategy 1 using the WHO non-laboratory-based risk charts could prevent 3 482 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 2 110-4 661] cardiovascular events, Strategy 2 using the WHO laboratory-based risk charts could prevent 3 685 (95%UI: 2 255-4 912) events, and Strategy 3 using the China-PAR model could prevent 3 895 (95%UI: 2 396-5 181) events. NNTs with statin per cardiovascular event prevented were 22 (95%UI: 14-54), 21 (95%UI: 14-52), and 27 (95%UI: 17-67), respectively. Strategy 3 could prevent more cardiovascular events, while Strategies 1 and 2 required fewer numbers need to treat with statin per cardiovascular event prevented. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
The statin treatment strategies based on risk assessment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by the Western guidelines could achieve substantive health benefits in adults from developed areas of China. Using the China-PAR model for cardiovascular risk assessment could prevent more cardiovascular diseases while using the WHO risk charts seems more efficient.
Adult
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Cardiovascular Diseases/prevention & control*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Cost-Benefit Analysis
;
Humans
;
Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors/therapeutic use*
;
Primary Prevention
9.Effectiveness of different screening strategies for type 2 diabete on preventing cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population using a decision-analytic Markov model.
Jia Min WANG ; Qiu Ping LIU ; Ming Lu ZHANG ; Chao GONG ; Shu Dan LIU ; Wei Ye CHEN ; Peng SHEN ; Hong Bo LIN ; Pei GAO ; Xun TANG
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2022;54(3):450-457
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the effectiveness of different screening strategies for type 2 diabetes to prevent cardiovascular disease in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed areas based on the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study.
METHODS:
A Markov model was used to simulate different systematic diabetes screening strategies, including: (1) screening among Chinese adults aged 40-70 years recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline for the prevention and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes (Strategy 1); (2) screening among Chinese adults aged 35 to 70 years recommended by the 2022 American Diabetes Association Standard of Medical Care in Diabetes (Strategy 2); and (3) screening among Chinese adults aged 35-70 years with overweight or obesity recommended by the 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Screening for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes (Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, individuals who were screened positively (fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/L) would be introduced to intensive glycemic targets management (glycated hemoglobin < 7.0%).The Markov model simulated different screening scenarios for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Number of cardiovascular disease events or deaths could be prevented and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated to compare the effectiveness of the different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on the sensitivity of screening methods and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on uncertainties of diabetes incidence, the sensitivity of screening methods, and intensive glycemic management effects were conducted.
RESULTS:
Totally 289 245 Chinese adults aged 35-70 years without cardiovascular diseases or diagnosed diabetes at baseline were enrolled. In terms of the number of cardiovascular disease events could be prevented, Strategy 1 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 35-70 years was 222 (95%UI: 180-264), Strategy 2 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 40-70 years was 227 (95%UI: 185-271), and Strategy 3 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 35-70 years with obesity or overweight (body mass index ≥ 24 kg/m2) was 131 (95%UI: 98-164), compared with opportunistic screening. NNS per cardiovascular disease event for the strategies 1, 2 and 3 were 1 184 (95%UI: 994-1 456), 1 274 (95%UI: 1 067-1 564) and 814 (95%UI: 649-1 091), respectively. Compared with Strategy 1, NNS per cardiovascular disease event for Strategy 2 increased by 90 (95%UI: -197-381) with similar effectiveness of cardiovascular prevention; however, NNS per cardiovascular disease event for Strategy 3 was reduced by 460 (95%UI: 185-724) in contrast to the Strategy 2, suggesting that the Strategy 3 was more efficient. The results were consistent in multiple sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
Systematic screening for diabetes based on the latest guidelines in economically developed areas of China can reduce cardiovascular events and deaths. However, merely lowering the starting age of screening from 40 to 35 years seems ineffective for preventing cardiovascular disease, while screening strategy for Chinese adults aged 35-70 years with overweight or obesity is recommended to improve efficiency.
Adult
;
Cardiovascular Diseases/prevention & control*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Cost-Benefit Analysis
;
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/prevention & control*
;
Humans
;
Mass Screening/methods*
;
Obesity
;
Overweight
;
United States
10.Effects of tranexamic acid on vascular occlusive events and perioperative resuscitation in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing total joint arthroplasty.
Shangkun TANG ; Zongke ZHOU ; Jing YANG ; Pengde KANG ; Bin SHEN ; Fuxing PEI ; Xiaojun SHI
Chinese Medical Journal 2022;135(19):2354-2356

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