1.Isometric exercise reduces resting blood pressure:a meta-analysis of moderating factors and dose effects
Yang JIANG ; Hao PENG ; Yanping SONG ; Na YAO ; Yueyu SONG ; Xingxiao YIN ; Yanqi LI ; Qigang CHEN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(4):975-986
OBJECTIVE:Elevated blood pressure increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases.Isometric exercise training has been shown to significantly reduce resting blood pressure,but the factors influencing its effectiveness remain unclear,and specific application guidelines are yet to be established.This study aims to evaluate the impact of isometric exercise training on resting blood pressure through meta-analysis,explore its moderating factors,and provide evidence-based recommendations based on its dose-response relationship.METHODS:Following the PRISMA guidelines,a systematic search was conducted in PubMed,Embase,Cochrane Library,Scopus,and Web of Science databases using keywords"Isometric exercise training,""Systolic blood pressure,"and"Diastolic blood pressure,"covering literature up to September 2024.Randomized controlled trials involving isometric exercise training and resting blood pressure were included.Three independent researchers performed literature screening and data extraction,assessing bias risk and quality grades using the Risk of Bias 2.0 tool and GRADE framework.Main effect pooling,publication bias assessment,subgroup,and regression analysis were conducted using R software(version 4.3.4).RESULTS:A total of 28 articles(comprising 32 randomized controlled trials)involving 977 participants were included.(1)Meta-analysis results indicated that isometric exercise training significantly reduced resting systolic blood pressure(MD=-8.01,95%CI=-9.22 to-6.80,P<0.01,I2=18.20%,low evidence grade)and diastolic blood pressure(MD=-3.46,95%CI=-4.64 to-2.28,P<0.01,I2=0%,moderate evidence grade)compared to no exercise.(2)Subgroup analysis results revealed significant influences of gender,health status,exercise modality,frequency,intensity,duration,sets per session,rest duration,and baseline blood pressure on the main effects for both systolic(P<0.01)and diastolic blood pressure(P<0.05).(3)Regression analysis results did not show any significant influencing factors,but body mass index(β=-4.11,P=0.091)showed a significant negative trend on the main effect for systolic blood pressure.(4)No significant publication bias was observed in the meta-analysis results(P>0.05).CONCLUSION:(1)Isometric exercise training significantly lowers systolic(low evidence grade)and diastolic(moderate evidence grade)blood pressure with clinically meaningful thresholds.(2)Participant characteristics(gender,health status,baseline blood pressure,and body mass index)and isometric exercise training protocols(modality,frequency,intensity,duration,cycle,sets per session,and rest duration)influence its antihypertensive effects.(3)The article recommends the optimal blood pressure management prescription:three sessions per week,with four sets per session,each set lasting 2 minutes with a 2-minute rest,at an intensity of 95%HRpeak using isometric wall squat exercises;the intervention period can be adjusted around a 6-week node.Future high-quality research is urgently needed to further validate and support these conclusions.
2.Isometric exercise reduces resting blood pressure:a meta-analysis of moderating factors and dose effects
Yang JIANG ; Hao PENG ; Yanping SONG ; Na YAO ; Yueyu SONG ; Xingxiao YIN ; Yanqi LI ; Qigang CHEN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(4):975-986
OBJECTIVE:Elevated blood pressure increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases.Isometric exercise training has been shown to significantly reduce resting blood pressure,but the factors influencing its effectiveness remain unclear,and specific application guidelines are yet to be established.This study aims to evaluate the impact of isometric exercise training on resting blood pressure through meta-analysis,explore its moderating factors,and provide evidence-based recommendations based on its dose-response relationship.METHODS:Following the PRISMA guidelines,a systematic search was conducted in PubMed,Embase,Cochrane Library,Scopus,and Web of Science databases using keywords"Isometric exercise training,""Systolic blood pressure,"and"Diastolic blood pressure,"covering literature up to September 2024.Randomized controlled trials involving isometric exercise training and resting blood pressure were included.Three independent researchers performed literature screening and data extraction,assessing bias risk and quality grades using the Risk of Bias 2.0 tool and GRADE framework.Main effect pooling,publication bias assessment,subgroup,and regression analysis were conducted using R software(version 4.3.4).RESULTS:A total of 28 articles(comprising 32 randomized controlled trials)involving 977 participants were included.(1)Meta-analysis results indicated that isometric exercise training significantly reduced resting systolic blood pressure(MD=-8.01,95%CI=-9.22 to-6.80,P<0.01,I2=18.20%,low evidence grade)and diastolic blood pressure(MD=-3.46,95%CI=-4.64 to-2.28,P<0.01,I2=0%,moderate evidence grade)compared to no exercise.(2)Subgroup analysis results revealed significant influences of gender,health status,exercise modality,frequency,intensity,duration,sets per session,rest duration,and baseline blood pressure on the main effects for both systolic(P<0.01)and diastolic blood pressure(P<0.05).(3)Regression analysis results did not show any significant influencing factors,but body mass index(β=-4.11,P=0.091)showed a significant negative trend on the main effect for systolic blood pressure.(4)No significant publication bias was observed in the meta-analysis results(P>0.05).CONCLUSION:(1)Isometric exercise training significantly lowers systolic(low evidence grade)and diastolic(moderate evidence grade)blood pressure with clinically meaningful thresholds.(2)Participant characteristics(gender,health status,baseline blood pressure,and body mass index)and isometric exercise training protocols(modality,frequency,intensity,duration,cycle,sets per session,and rest duration)influence its antihypertensive effects.(3)The article recommends the optimal blood pressure management prescription:three sessions per week,with four sets per session,each set lasting 2 minutes with a 2-minute rest,at an intensity of 95%HRpeak using isometric wall squat exercises;the intervention period can be adjusted around a 6-week node.Future high-quality research is urgently needed to further validate and support these conclusions.
3.Research progress on health effects of triclosan and triclocarban
Jiaqi LIU ; Min HUANG ; Zichen YANG ; Yi WANG ; Ke ZHAO ; Yuhua ZHOU ; Yuanping WANG ; Na WANG ; Hexing WANG ; Qingwu JIANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(3):251-258
Triclosan (TCS) and triclocarban (TCC) are widely used synthetic broad-spectrum antibacterial agents that can enter the human body through the skin, gastrointestinal tract, and other pathways. More and more studies have found that exposure to TCS and TCC can affect human health, but currently, review reports on the health effects of human exposure to TCS and TCC are limited. Therefore, this study reviewed population studies on the relationship between TCS and TCC exposure and health effects by searching the PubMed database, summarized the associated health outcomes, and elucidated the biological mechanisms. A total of 56 studies were retrieved, among which cross-sectional studies (25 studies, 44.64%) and cohort studies (25 studies, 44.64%) accounted for a relatively large proportion, while case-control studies (6 studies, 10.72%) were relatively few. Studies on TCS exposure (48 studies, 85.71%) were far more prevalent than those on TCC exposure (2 studies, 3.57%). The remaining 6 studies involved both TCS and TCC exposure. The research results revealed that TCS exposure was associated with male and female abnormal reproductive functions, fetal growth restriction, abnormal behavior development in children, obesity, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), and immune-related diseases. Although the results of different studies show significant differences, they have indicated that exposure to TCS is a potential risk factor for these health problems. Due to the limited number of studies, the evidence for the relationship between TCC exposure and most of the aforementioned health effects is insufficient. Population studies and in vitro and in vivo studies have shown that exposure to TCS and TCC can interfere with the microbial homeostasis, the endocrine system, oxidative stress and immune function of the body, which are potential mechanisms causing adverse health effects. In the future, large-scale prospective cohort studies, as well as in vivo and in vitro studies, are still needed to further clarify the associations between TCS and TCC exposure and health effects, and to deeply explore its mechanism of action. These efforts will provide references for clarifying the human health hazards of TCS and TCC exposure and formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.
4.Spatiotemporal clustering characteristics and epidemiological trends of typhus fever in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province, 2005‒2023
Tianren LU ; Lijuan ZHAO ; Lizhong DUAN ; Kai HE ; Na WANG ; Zongqi JIANG ; Zhijie ZHANG ; Dongsheng HUANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(4):274-279
ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence and spatiotemporal distribution of typhus fever in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2023, to identify high-risk populations and regions, so as to provide a scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of local prevention and control resources and developing targeted intervention measures. MethodsData of typhus fever cases in Baoshan City from 2005 to 2023 were obtained from the Infectious Disease Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal, spatial and demographic distribution of typhus fever cases. Spatial clustering was assessed using spatial dynamic window scan statistics (circular and elliptical windows), flexible spatial scan statistics, and local spatial autocorrelation methods (including local Moran’s I, local Geary’s C, and Getis-Ord Gi*). Retrospective spatiotemporal scan statistics were employed to detect spatiotemporal clusters. ResultsA total of 1 099 typhus fever cases were reported in Baoshan City from 2005 to 2023. The incidence rate peaked at 6.31/ 100 000 in 2007, followed by a decline until reaching its lowest level at 0.21/100 000 in 2015 , and subsequently rebounded during 2016‒2023. The highest proportion of cases was among children under 10 years of age (31.12%), and the top three occupations of cases were farmers, students, and children, accounting for 88.62% of all cases. Cases occurred predominantly between June and September each year. The incidence was relatively high in Jiucheng Town (62.58/100 000), Yaoguan Town (57.15/100 000), and Dianyang Town (46.81/100 000) of Shidian County. Spatial clustering analyses indicated that high-risk areas were mainly located in the southern part of Baoshan City, showing a south-to-north trend. Spatiotemporal scan analyses identified five clusters, with the most likely cluster centered around Yaoguan Town, covering ten towns (subdistricts) during the period 2007‒2010. ConclusionThe incidence of typhus fever in Baoshan City exhibits a clear seasonal and spatial clustering pattern, with peak incidence occurring in summer and autumn. Spatially, cases are primarily distributed in the southern part of Baoshan City, and high-risk clusters exhibit a south-to-north trend. Farmers, students, and children are the high-risk groups.
5.Characteristics of mitochondrial translational initiation factor 2 gene methylation and its association with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma
Huajie XIE ; Kai CHANG ; Yanyan WANG ; Wanlin NA ; Huan CAI ; Xia LIU ; Zhongyong JIANG ; Zonghai HU ; Yuan LIU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(2):284-291
ObjectiveTo investigate the characteristics of mitochondrial translational initiation factor 2 (MTIF2) gene methylation and its association with the development and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). MethodsMethSurv and EWAS Data Hub were used to perform the standardized analysis and the cluster analysis of MTIF2 methylation samples, including survival curve analysis, methylation signature analysis, the association of tumor signaling pathways, and a comparative analysis based on pan-cancer database. The independent-samples t test was used for comparison between two groups; a one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison between multiple groups, and the least significant difference t-test was used for further comparison between two groups. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to perform the univariate and multivariate survival analyses of methylation level at the CpG site. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to investigate the survival differences between the patients with low methylation level and those with high methylation level, and the Log-likelihood ratio method was used for survival difference analysis. ResultsGlobal clustering of MTIF2 methylation showed that there was no significant difference in MTIF2 gene methylation level between different races, ethnicities, BMI levels, and ages. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis showed that the patients with N-Shore hypermethylation of the MTIF2 gene had a significantly better prognosis than those with hypomethylation (hazard ratio [HR]=0.492, P<0.001), while there was no significant difference in survival rate between the patients with different CpG island and S-Shore methylation levels (P>0.05). The methylation profile of the MTIF2 gene based on different ages, sexes, BMI levels, races, ethnicities, and clinical stages showed that the N-Shore and CpG island methylation levels of the MTIF2 gene decreased with the increase in age, and the Caucasian population had significantly lower N-Shore methylation levels of the MTIF2 gene than the Asian population (P<0.05); the patients with clinical stage Ⅳ had significantly lower N-Shore and CpG island methylation levels of the MTIF2 gene than those with stage Ⅰ/Ⅱ (P<0.05). Clinical validation showed that the patients with stage Ⅲ/Ⅳ HCC had a significantly lower methylation level of the MTIF2 gene than those with stage Ⅰ/Ⅱ HCC and the normal population (P<0.05). ConclusionN-Shore hypomethylation of the MTIF2 gene is a risk factor for the development and progression of HCC.
6.SR9009 combined with indolepropionic acid alleviates inflammation in C2C12 myoblasts through the nuclear factor-kappa B signaling pathway
Huihui JI ; Xu JIANG ; Zhimin ZHANG ; Yunhong XING ; Liangliang WANG ; Na LI ; Yuting SONG ; Xuguang LUO ; Huilin CUI ; Ximei CAO
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(6):1220-1229
BACKGROUND:Rev-erbα is involved in the regulation of inflammation,but pharmacological activation of Rev-erbα increases the risk for cardiovascular diseases.To reduce the relevant risk,an exploration on SR9009,a Rev-erbα agonist,combined with other drugs to relieve inflammation in skeletal myoblasts was conducted,laying the theoretical foundation for the treatment of inflammation-associated skeletal muscle atrophy. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the relationship of SR9009,indolepropionic acid and nuclear factor-κB signaling pathways in lipopolysaccharide-induced C2C12 myoblasts. METHODS:(1)C2C12 myoblasts were induced to differentiate in the presence of lipopolysaccharide(1 μg/mL).RNA-seq and KEGG pathway analysis were used to study signaling pathways.(2)C2C12 myoblast viability was assessed using the cell counting kit-8 assay to determine optimal concentrations of indolepropionic acid.Subsequently,cells were categorized into control group,lipopolysaccharide(1 μg/mL)group,SR9009(10 μmol/L)+lipopolysaccharide group,indolepropionic acid(80μmol/L)+lipopolysaccharide group,and SR9009+indolepropionic acid+lipopolysaccharide group.ELISA was employed to measure protein expression levels of interleukin-6 in the cultured supernatant.Real-time quantitative PCR were employed to measure mRNA expression levels of interleukin-6,tumor necrosis factor α,TLR4 and CD14.Western blot assay were employed to measure protein expression levels of NF-κB p65 and p-NF-κB p65.(3)After Rev-erbα was knocked down by siRNA,knockdown efficiency was assessed by RT-qPCR.And mRNA levels of interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor α were also measured. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Compared with the blank control group,lipopolysaccharide time-dependently inhibited myofibroblast fusion to form myotubes,the mRNA expression levels of interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor α were elevated,and the level of interleukin-6 in the cell supernatant was significantly increased.The results of KEGG pathway showed that the nuclear factor-κB signaling pathway was activated by lipopolysaccharide.Indolepropionic acid exhibited significant suppression of C2C12 myoblasts viability when its concentration exceeded 80 μmol/L.Indolepropionic acid and SR9009 inhibited the activation of NF-κB signaling pathway,thereby played an anti-inflammatory role,and suppressed the mRNA expression levels of interleukin-6,tumor necrosis factor α,TLR4 and CD14.Compared with the lipopolysaccharide group,the ratio of p-NF-κB p65/NF-κB p65 protein expression were downregulated.SR9009 combined with indolepropionic acid notably reduced lipopolysaccharide-induced inflammation,further downregulated the mRNA expression levels of interleukin-6,tumor necrosis factor α,TLR4 and CD14.The ratio of p-NF-κB p65/NF-κB p65 protein expression was significantly lower than that in the SR9009+lipopolysaccharide group or indolepropionic acid+lipopolysaccharide group.Rev-erbα increases time-dependently with lipopolysaccharide induction.The knockdown efficiency of Rev-erbα by siRNA reached over 58%,and lipopolysaccharide was added after Rev-erbα was successfully knocked down.Compared with the lipopolysaccharide group,the mRNA expression levels of interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor α were significantly up-regulated.These results conclude that Rev-erbα may act as a promising pharmacological target to reduce inflammation.SR9009 targeted activation of Rev-erbα combined with indolepropionic acid significantly inhibits the nuclear factor-κB signaling pathway and attenuates the inflammatory response of C2C12 myofibroblasts.Moreover,the combined anti-inflammatory effect is superior to that of the intervention alone.
7.Comorbidity status of cardiovascular diseases and its influencing factors in community-based schizophrenia patients in Shanghai, 2022
Chenyao YANG ; Weibo ZHANG ; Yanli LIU ; Xiaolan WANG ; Yi ZHU ; Na WANG ; Yihua JIANG ; Lina WANG ; Jun CAI
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(10):835-841
ObjectiveTo investigate the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases and their influencing factors in community-based schizophrenia patients in Shanghai, and to provide a scientific basis for the early identification and prevention of cardiovascular disease in this population. MethodsBased on the Shanghai community cohort with severe mental disorders in 2022, a total of 3 954 community-based schizophrenia patients were identified and included in this study through a stratified cluster sampling method. Basic information and relevant clinical data (including metabolic index data) were collected through questionnaire survey, physical examination and laboratory testing. Univariate analyses were performed using the chi-square tests, and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify influencing factors of comorbid cardiovascular diseases. ResultsA total of 3 954 community-based schizophrenia patients were included, of which a total of 1 237 (31.28%) patients had comorbid cardiovascular diseases. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that age 60 years old or above (OR=5.524, 95%CI: 3.716‒8.214), smoking behavior (OR=1.328, 95%CI: 1.042‒1.692), overweight (OR=1.900, 95%CI: 1.046‒3.451) or obesity (OR=2.678, 95%CI: 1.439‒4.985), elevated blood pressure (OR=1.546, 95%CI: 1.294‒1.846), abnormal fasting blood glucose (OR=1.552, 95%CI: 1.322‒1.823) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol abnormalities (OR=1.283, 95%CI: 1.025‒1.606) were positively associated with the risk of comorbid cardiovascular diseases in patients with schizophrenia, while educational attainment of college/bachelor’s degree or above (OR=0.640, 95%CI: 0.450‒0.910) and being unmarried (OR=0.552, 95%CI: 0.457‒0.667) were negatively associated with the risk of cardiovascular diseases comorbidity. ConclusionAdvanced age, unhealthy behaviors and lifestyles, as well as abnormalities in blood pressure, blood glucose, and blood lipids, could all increase the risk of comorbid cardiovascular diseases in community schizophrenia patients. It is suggested to strengthen the monitoring and management of these risk factors in this population in the future, so as to achieve early detection, early diagnosis and early intervention of cardiovascular diseases.
8.Proportions of memory T cells and expression of their associated cytokines in lymph nodes of mice infected with Echinococcus multilocularis
Yinshi LI ; Duolikun ADILAI ; Bingqing DENG ; Ainiwaer ABIDAN ; Sheng SUN ; Wenying XIAO ; Conghui GE ; Na TANG ; Jing LI ; Hui WANG ; Tao JIANG ; Chuanshan ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(2):136-143
Objective To investigate the effects of Echinococcus multilocularis infection on levels of memory T (Tm) cells and their subsets in lymph nodes of mice at different stages of infection, so as to provide new insights into immunotherapy for alveolarechinococcosis. MethodsTwenty-four C57BL/6J mice aged 6 to 9 weeks were randomly divided into the infection group and the control group, of 12 mice in each group. Mice in the infection group were administered with 3 000 E. multilocularis protoscoleces via portal venous injection, while animals in the control group were administered with an equal volume of physiological saline. Three mice from each group were sacrificed 4, 12 weeks and 24 weeks post-infection, and lymph nodes were sampled and stained with hematoxylin and eosin (HE) to investigate the histopathological changes of mouse lymph nodes in the infection group. The expression and localization of T lymphocyte surface markers CD3, CD4, and CD8 were observed in mouse lymph nodes using immunohistochemical staining. In addition, lymphocyte suspensions were prepared from mouse lymph nodes in both groups at different time points post-infection, and the levels of Tm cell subsets and their secreted cytokines were detected using flow cytometry. Results HE staining showed diffuse structural alterations in the subcapsular cortical and paracortical regions of mouse lymph nodes in the infection group 4 weeks post-infection with E. multilocularis. Immunohistochemical staining detected CD3, CD4 and CD8 expression in mouse lymph nodes in both groups. Flow cytometry revealed higher proportions of CD4+ Tm cells [(55.3 ± 4.8)% vs. (38.8 ± 6.1)%; t = -4.259, P < 0.05] and CD4+ tissue-resident Tm (Trm) cells [(57.7 ± 3.7)% vs. (34.1 ± 11.2)%; t = -3.990, P < 0.05] in mouse lymph nodes in the infection group than in the control group 4 weeks post-infection, and higher proportions of CD4+ Tm cells [(34.6 ± 3.2)% vs. (23.3 ± 7.5)%; t = -2.764, P < 0.05] and CD4+ Trm cells [(44.0 ± 1.9)% vs. (31.2 ± 1.5)%; t = -4.039, P < 0.05] in mouse lymph nodes in the infection group than in the control group 24 weeks post-infection. The proportions of CD8+ Tm cells were higher in the infection group than in the control group 4 weeks [(56.8 ± 2.7)% vs. (43.9 ± 5.2)%; t = -4.416, P < 0.01] and 12 weeks post-infection [(25.4 ± 2.7)% vs. (12.0 ± 2.6)%; t = -2.552, P < 0.05], while the proportions of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α+ CD4+ T cells [(15.7 ± 5.0)% vs. (49.4 ± 6.4)%; t = 7.150, P < 0.01], TNF-α+CD8+ T cells [(20.7 ± 5.5)% vs. (57.5 ± 8.4)%; t = -6.694, P < 0.01], and TNF-α+ CD8+ Tm cells [7.0% (1.0%) vs. 31.0% (11.0%); Z = -2.236, P < 0.05] were lower in the infection group than in the control group 24 weeks post-infection. Conclusions Tm cells levels are consistently increased in lymph nodes of mice at different stages of E. multilocularis infection, with Trm cells as the predominantly elevated subset. The impaired capacity of CD8+ Tm cells to secrete the effector molecule TNF-α in mouse lymph nodes at the late-stage infection may facilitate chronic parasitism of E. multilocularis.
9.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.
10.Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Liaoning Cancer Regi-stration Areas from 2016 to 2020 and Trends from 2006 to 2020
Huijuan MU ; Yanxia LI ; Xiang MA ; Jun NA ; Liya YU ; Jiang TIAN ; Li LIU
China Cancer 2025;34(4):279-289
[Purpose]To analyze cancer incidence and mortality in Liaoning cancer registration areas from 2016 to 2020 and the trends from 2006 to 2020.[Methods]Cancer data in cancer registra-tion areas in Liaoning Province from 2016 to 2020 were collected.The incidence and mortality,age-standardized rate,cumulative rate(0~74 years old),and age-specific rate were calculated.Age-standardized incidence and mortality rate were calculated by the Chinese standard popula-tion(ASIRC,ASMRC)and Segi world standard population(ASIRW,ASMRW).Joinpoint software was applied to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality.[Results]From 2016 to 2020,the crude incidence rate of cancer in Liaoning cancer registration areas was 422.30/105,the ASIRC and ASIRW were 215.67/105 and 209.52/105.The ASIRC was higher in urban areas(225.00/105)than that in rural areas(190.15/105),and higher in male(221.47/105)than that in female(213.03/105).The crude mortality rate was 254.22/105,the ASMRC and ASMRW were 113.26/105 and 112.91/105.The ASMRC in urban areas(113.12/105)was the same as that in rural areas(113.01/105),and higher in male(146.86/105)than that in female(83.46/105).The ASIRW of lung cancer was 46.13/105,and the ASMRW was 32.04/105,both ranking the first of all cancers.From 2006 to 2020,the crude incidence,ASIRC and ASIRW in urban areas showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.921%,t=16.222,P<0.05;AAPC=0.823%,t=2.409,P<0.05;AAPC=0.875%,t=2.933,P<0.05).The crude incidence,ASIRC and ASIRW in urban female were all rising(AAPC=4.151%,t=15.888,P<0.05;AAPC=1.597%,t=4.819,P<0.05;AAPC=1.514%,t=4.752,P<0.05).During the same period,the cancer mortality in urban areas showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.175%,t=14.745,P<0.05),and the ASMRW showed a decreasing trend(AAPC=-0.908%,t=-2.273,P<0.05).The crude mor-tality of both men and women showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.010%,t=6.032,P<0.05;AAPC=2.820%,t=5.921,P<0.05),while the crude mortality and ASMRW for female showed a significant downward trend(AAPC=-1.487%,t=-2.437,P<0.05;AAPC=-2.680%,t=-2.246,P<0.05).From 2016 to 2020,the crude incidence,ASIRC and ASIRW in rural areas showed no significant change;however,the crude incidence in male was increasing(AAPC=2.025%,t=3.853,P<0.05).In the same period,the crude mortality rate in rural areas increased(AAPC=3.577%,t=9.377,P<0.05),while there was no significant change in the ASMRC and ASMRW.The crude mortality of both men and women showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.377%,t=10.615,P<0.05;AAPC=3.978%,t=7.245,P<0.05),while there was no significant change in ASMRC and ASMRW.[Conclusion]The cancer burden in Liaoning from 2016 to 2020 was higher than the average level in China,can-cer prevention and control should be further strengthened in the provice.

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