1.Analysis and prediction of the 50-year incidence trend of malignant tumors in the elderly of Qidong City
Mingbo JIANG ; Jian ZHU ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Lulu DING ; Yuanyou XU ; Jianguo CHEN ; Jian MAO
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2025;44(4):531-537
Objective:To analyze the incidence trends of malignant tumors in the elderly population aged over 60 years in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021, as well as to predict the incidence rate for the next decade.Methods:Data were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registry and Reporting System.The crude incidence rate(CR), age-standardized incidence rate using the Chinese standard population(ASRC), and age-standardized incidence rate based on Segi's world standard population(ASRW)were calculated.Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to determine the average annual percentage change(AAPC)in incidence.Additionally, the ARIMA model implemented in SAS 9.2 software was utilized for time series analysis to forecast incidence trends over the forthcoming 10 years.Results:In Qidong City, a total of 87, 401 malignant tumors were reported in the elderly population.The ASRW increased from 736.85 per 100, 000 in the years 1972-1976 to 1 056.33 per 100, 000 in 2017-2021.Specifically, the ASRW for males rose from 968.56 per 100, 000 to 1 332.75 per 100, 000, while the ASRW for females increased from 550.62 per 100, 000 to 825.44 per 100, 000, with AAPC values of 1.16%, 0.94%, and 1.44% over 50 years(all P<0.001).The incidence trend exhibited an upward trajectory with age, peaking in the 75-79 age group.The AAPC values for the incidence rates in the age groups of 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and those aged over 80 were 0.64%, 0.93%, 0.92%, 2.02%, and 2.44%, respectively(all P<0.001).Among the various cancers, lung cancer, which ranked first, saw an increase in ASRW from 100.87 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 248.84 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.In contrast, gastric cancer, ranked second, decreased from 216.23 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 103.54 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Liver cancer, ranked third, fluctuated from 113.47 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 125.13 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Colorectal cancer, ranked fourth, increased from 40.06 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 123.47 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021, while esophageal cancer, ranked fifth, decreased from 63.42 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 28.65 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.The AAPC values over 50 years for these cancers were 2.25%, -1.89%, 0.36%, 3.13%, and -1.86%, respectively(all P<0.05).Projections indicate that by 2031, the incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong will reach 1 253.84 per 100, 000, with estimates of 1 566.67 per 100, 000 for males and 983.14 per 100, 000 for females. Conclusions:The incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong City is increasing.Common types of cancer in this demographic include lung cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, and esophageal cancer.Notably, lung cancer, liver cancer, and colorectal cancer are on the rise and should be prioritized in cancer prevention and control efforts.
2.Analysis and prediction of the 50-year incidence trend of malignant tumors in the elderly of Qidong City
Mingbo JIANG ; Jian ZHU ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Lulu DING ; Yuanyou XU ; Jianguo CHEN ; Jian MAO
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2025;44(4):531-537
Objective:To analyze the incidence trends of malignant tumors in the elderly population aged over 60 years in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021, as well as to predict the incidence rate for the next decade.Methods:Data were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registry and Reporting System.The crude incidence rate(CR), age-standardized incidence rate using the Chinese standard population(ASRC), and age-standardized incidence rate based on Segi's world standard population(ASRW)were calculated.Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software to determine the average annual percentage change(AAPC)in incidence.Additionally, the ARIMA model implemented in SAS 9.2 software was utilized for time series analysis to forecast incidence trends over the forthcoming 10 years.Results:In Qidong City, a total of 87, 401 malignant tumors were reported in the elderly population.The ASRW increased from 736.85 per 100, 000 in the years 1972-1976 to 1 056.33 per 100, 000 in 2017-2021.Specifically, the ASRW for males rose from 968.56 per 100, 000 to 1 332.75 per 100, 000, while the ASRW for females increased from 550.62 per 100, 000 to 825.44 per 100, 000, with AAPC values of 1.16%, 0.94%, and 1.44% over 50 years(all P<0.001).The incidence trend exhibited an upward trajectory with age, peaking in the 75-79 age group.The AAPC values for the incidence rates in the age groups of 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and those aged over 80 were 0.64%, 0.93%, 0.92%, 2.02%, and 2.44%, respectively(all P<0.001).Among the various cancers, lung cancer, which ranked first, saw an increase in ASRW from 100.87 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 248.84 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.In contrast, gastric cancer, ranked second, decreased from 216.23 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 103.54 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Liver cancer, ranked third, fluctuated from 113.47 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 125.13 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.Colorectal cancer, ranked fourth, increased from 40.06 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 123.47 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021, while esophageal cancer, ranked fifth, decreased from 63.42 per 100, 000 in 1972-1981 to 28.65 per 100, 000 in 2012-2021.The AAPC values over 50 years for these cancers were 2.25%, -1.89%, 0.36%, 3.13%, and -1.86%, respectively(all P<0.05).Projections indicate that by 2031, the incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong will reach 1 253.84 per 100, 000, with estimates of 1 566.67 per 100, 000 for males and 983.14 per 100, 000 for females. Conclusions:The incidence of malignant tumors among the elderly population in Qidong City is increasing.Common types of cancer in this demographic include lung cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, and esophageal cancer.Notably, lung cancer, liver cancer, and colorectal cancer are on the rise and should be prioritized in cancer prevention and control efforts.
3.Discussion of Clinical Nursing and Communication Skills for Perioperative Patients with Liver, Gallbladder, Spleen, and Pancreas Illness in Solution Focused Approach
Zhongying CHEN ; Jiangang CHEN ; Chenyan WU ; Qinfeng QIAN ; Mingbo MAO ; Xiudi CHEN
Chinese Medical Ethics 2016;29(5):774-776
Objective:To conduct clinical psychological intervention for the perioperative patients through solu-tion focused approach, excavate potential and improve the adaptation ability. Methods: On the basis of establis-hing a good nurse-patient relationship, the application of the solution focused approach was conducted in the peri-operative patients ( description of the problem, the construction of specific aims, and discussion on the exception, giving feedback, and evaluation of progress) . Results:After the intervention of solution focused approach, the pa-tients′negative emotion such as nervousness, anxiety, fear and depression decreased significantly (P <0. 05). Conclusion:Psychological intervention could effectively eliminate the negative mood of patients, improve the doc-tor-patient relationship, dissolve the contradiction between doctors and patients, reduce the incidence of medical disputes, and thereby enhance mutual understanding, trust and respect between doctors and patients, which makes the doctor-patient relationship more harmonious.
4.Epidemiological analyses of children with mycoplasma pneumoniae infection in kunming region between 2003 and 2007
Qian WU ; Linxian NI ; Mao FAN ; Mingbo ZHAO ; Li GAO
Chinese Pediatric Emergency Medicine 2010;17(1):32-33,36
Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of children infected by mycoplasma pneumoniae(MP)over the last five years in Kunming region.Methods Indirect immunofluorescence assay was used to detect blood MP-IgM of hospitalized patients from January 2003 to December 2007 in order to determine the age and gender distribution characteristics of MP infection and to investigate the epidemiological features of the five years' results.Results Infection incidences by MP in Kunming region over the last five years were 20.9%,14.3%,17.5%,15.7%and 19.5%,respectively.Statistical significance was found among the groups mentioned above(P<0.01).The MP infection incidences in different age groups were 10.7%(~1 year old),20.5%(~3 years' old),21.5%(~6 years' old)and 21.7%(~14 years' old).MP infection incidences showed age and gender characteristics(P<0.01).Infants showed lower NIP infection incidence and infection incidence was higher in female.The epidemiological investigation indicated that MP infection incidences varied from year to year(P<0.01).The infection incidences of 2003 and 2007 by MP were higher than those of the other years.There were epidemiological differences in infection incidences by NIP over last five years(summer,autumn and winter).The MP infection incidences showed seasonal differences(P<0.01).Conclusion Mycoplasma pneumoniae was the main local causative agent responsible for respiratory tract infection in children aged under one years' old in Kunming region.Over the last five years,there were two outbreaks in the local area,but with no seasonal regularity of epidemiology.

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