Objective:To construct a prediction model for the emergency volume of the psychiatric hospital, and analyze the changes of psychiatric emergency visits, so as to provide references for optimizing the allocation of emergency service resources.Methods:This study extracted data of the visit time of emergency patients, etc from the information system of a certain psychiatric hospital from 2018 to 2023. The monthly emergency visits (emergency volume) from 2018 to 2022 were used to construct the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), and the monthly emergency volume from 2023 was used to validate the predictive performance of the model.Results:After model construction and screening, seasonal ARIMA (0, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1) 12 was determined as the optimal model. The predicted values of the model were in good agreement with the actual values, with an average relative error fluctuation of 1.6% to 26.8% and an average absolute error fluctuation of 9 to 159 person-time. Conclusions:The seasonal ARIMA model could accurately predict the emergency volume of a certain psychiatric hospital and provide references for human resource allocation and emergency response. However, this prediction model was suitable for short-term forecasting. If long-term forecasting was needed, continuous data fitting was necessary to ensure the effectiveness of the prediction.

Objective To investigate etiologic characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in a sentinel hospital in Guangzhou from 2017 to 2021, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Descriptive epidemiologic methods were used to analyze the etiologic characteristics of mild cases of HMFD during 2017-2021. Results A total of 1 633 specimens of mild cases of HMFD were collected from 2017 to 2021. The total enterovirus (EV) positive rate was 78.41%, among which the positive rates of the main pathogen Cox A6, Cox A16, Cox A10, and EV71 were 40.83%, 17.68%, 6.13%, and 1.62%, respectively. The total positive rate of enteroviruses and the positive rate of enteroviruses of all types in each year were statistically different (P<0.001). In 2017-2021, the prevalence of HFMD in Guangzhou was mainly Cox A6, followed by Cox A16 which had the highest positive rate in 2018 (24.62%). The positive rate of EV71 decreased year by year. Cox A6 was highly prevalent from June to December every year, while the detection rate of Cox A16 was high from April to August every year. The positive detection rate of EV71 was high from January to May in 2017 and low from 2018 to 2021, with no epidemic peak. Conclusion From 2017 to 2021, the main pathogen of HMFD in Guangzhou is Cox A6, not EV71 or CoxA16, which suggests that it is of great significance to strengthen the monitoring of epidemic trend of HFMD for the prevention and control of HFMD.

Objective:To observe the effects of static 70° head-up tilted standing and of repeated body repositioning on hemodynamics in healthy young and middle-aged persons.Methods:The hemodynamics of 24 middle-aged and 23 younger persons were studied. Both groups were requested to perform static 70° head-up tilted standing and to repeatedly change their body position from 0° to 70° of tilt at a velocity of 1°/second for ten minutes in a random order. Before, between and after each test the subjects rested supine for ten minutes. Hemodynamic variables and blood pressure were recorded non-invasively.Results:The average heart rate (HR) increased significantly in both groups when rising from supine to the testing positions. In 70° tilted standing the average HR of the youth group, 84.0±9.5bpm, was significantly higher than that in the other position and that of the middle-aged group in the same position. The average HR of the middle-aged group in 70° tilted standing was also significantly higher than in the other position. Among the middle-aged group, the average stroke volume (SV) in the testing positions was significantly lower than when resting. Significant differences were observed in the average diastolic blood pressure (DBP) between the testing and rest positions for both groups, with the average DBP of the middle-aged group significantly higher than that of the youth group in all three positions. Among the youth group, the average SV, CO and systolic blood pressure (SBP) of the males were significantly higher than among the females in all of the different body positions.Conclusions:Young persons mainly rely on an increased heart rate to maintain cardiac output while middle-aged participants appear to achieve this through increased peripheral resistance. Repeated position changes have less impact on hemodynamics than 70° inclined standing, making it a safer and more stable training method. However, the long-term effects of such intervention need to be confirmed in further studies.

Objective:To analyze the survival benefits and treatment related toxic effects of simultaneous integrated boost intensity-modulated radiotherapy (SIB-RT) for non-operative esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients.Methods:The data of 2 132 ESCC patients who were not suitable for surgery or rejected operation, and underwent radical radiotherapy from 2002 to 2016 in 10 hospitals of Jing-Jin-Ji Esophageal and Esophagogastric Cancer Radiotherapy Oncology Group (3JECROG) were analyzed. Among them, 518 (24.3%) cases underwent SIB (SIB group) and 1 614 (75.7%) cases did not receive SIB (No-SIB group). The two groups were matched with 1∶2 according to propensity score matching (PSM) method (caliper value=0.02). After PSM, 515 patients in SIB group and 977 patients in No-SIB group were enrolled. Prognosis and treatment related adverse effects of these two groups were compared and the independent prognostic factor were analyzed.Results:The median follow-up time was 61.7 months. Prior to PSM, the 1-, 3-, and 5-years overall survival (OS) rates of SIB group were 72.2%, 42.8%, 35.5%, while of No-SIB group were 74.3%, 41.4%, 31.9%, respectively ( P=0.549). After PSM, the 1-, 3-, and 5-years OS rates of the two groups were 72.5%, 43.4%, 36.4% and 75.3%, 41.7%, 31.6%, respectively ( P=0.690). The univariate survival analysis of samples after PSM showed that the lesion location, length, T stage, N stage, TNM stage, simultaneous chemoradiotherapy, gross tumor volume (GTV) and underwent SIB-RT or not were significantly associated with the prognosis of advanced esophageal carcinoma patients who underwent radical radiotherapy ( P<0.05). Cox model multivariate regression analysis showed lesion location, TNM stage, GTV and simultaneous chemoradiotherapy were independent prognostic factors of advanced esophageal carcinoma patients who underwent radical radiotherapy ( P<0.05). Stratified analysis showed that, in the patients whose GTV volume≤50 cm 3, the median survival time of SIB and No-SIB group was 34.7 and 30.3 months ( P=0.155), respectively. In the patients whose GTV volume>50 cm 3, the median survival time of SIB and No-SIB group was 16.1 and 20.1 months ( P=0.218). The incidence of radiation esophagitis and radiation pneumonitis above Grade 3 in SIB group were 4.3% and 2.5%, significantly lower than 13.1% and 11% of No-SIB group ( P<0.001). Conclusions:The survival benefit of SIB-RT in patients with locally advanced esophageal carcinoma is not inferior to non-SIB-RT, but without more adverse reactions, and shortens the treatment time. SIB-RT can be used as one option of the radical radiotherapy for locally advanced esophageal cancer.

Objective:To analyze the survival benefits and treatment related toxic effects of simultaneous integrated boost intensity-modulated radiotherapy (SIB-RT) for non-operative esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients.Methods:The data of 2 132 ESCC patients who were not suitable for surgery or rejected operation, and underwent radical radiotherapy from 2002 to 2016 in 10 hospitals of Jing-Jin-Ji Esophageal and Esophagogastric Cancer Radiotherapy Oncology Group (3JECROG) were analyzed. Among them, 518 (24.3%) cases underwent SIB (SIB group) and 1 614 (75.7%) cases did not receive SIB (No-SIB group). The two groups were matched with 1∶2 according to propensity score matching (PSM) method (caliper value=0.02). After PSM, 515 patients in SIB group and 977 patients in No-SIB group were enrolled. Prognosis and treatment related adverse effects of these two groups were compared and the independent prognostic factor were analyzed.Results:The median follow-up time was 61.7 months. Prior to PSM, the 1-, 3-, and 5-years overall survival (OS) rates of SIB group were 72.2%, 42.8%, 35.5%, while of No-SIB group were 74.3%, 41.4%, 31.9%, respectively ( P=0.549). After PSM, the 1-, 3-, and 5-years OS rates of the two groups were 72.5%, 43.4%, 36.4% and 75.3%, 41.7%, 31.6%, respectively ( P=0.690). The univariate survival analysis of samples after PSM showed that the lesion location, length, T stage, N stage, TNM stage, simultaneous chemoradiotherapy, gross tumor volume (GTV) and underwent SIB-RT or not were significantly associated with the prognosis of advanced esophageal carcinoma patients who underwent radical radiotherapy ( P<0.05). Cox model multivariate regression analysis showed lesion location, TNM stage, GTV and simultaneous chemoradiotherapy were independent prognostic factors of advanced esophageal carcinoma patients who underwent radical radiotherapy ( P<0.05). Stratified analysis showed that, in the patients whose GTV volume≤50 cm 3, the median survival time of SIB and No-SIB group was 34.7 and 30.3 months ( P=0.155), respectively. In the patients whose GTV volume>50 cm 3, the median survival time of SIB and No-SIB group was 16.1 and 20.1 months ( P=0.218). The incidence of radiation esophagitis and radiation pneumonitis above Grade 3 in SIB group were 4.3% and 2.5%, significantly lower than 13.1% and 11% of No-SIB group ( P<0.001). Conclusions:The survival benefit of SIB-RT in patients with locally advanced esophageal carcinoma is not inferior to non-SIB-RT, but without more adverse reactions, and shortens the treatment time. SIB-RT can be used as one option of the radical radiotherapy for locally advanced esophageal cancer.

Objective:To evaluate the effect of definitive radiotherapy with different doses on overall survival (OS) and identify the prognostic factors of patients with non-metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).Methods:Clinical data of 2 344 ESCC patients treated with definitive radiotherapy (RT) alone or chemoradiotherapy from 2002 to 2016 in 10 hospitals were collected and analyzed retrospectively. After the propensity score matching (PSM)(1 to 2 ratio), all patients were divided into the low-dose group (equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions, EQD 2Gy<60 Gy; n=303) and high-dose group (EQD 2Gy≥60 Gy; n=606) based on the dose of radiation. Survival analysis was conducted by Kaplan- Meier method. Multivariate prognostic analysis was performed by Cox′s regression model. Results:The median follow-up time was 59.6 months. After the PSM, the 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 66.5%, 34.7%, 27.2% in the low-dose group, 72.9%, 41.7% and 34.7% in the high-dose group, respectively ( P=0.018). The 1-, 3-and 5-year progression-free survival rate was 52.2%, 27.2%, 23.1% in the low-dose group, 58.3%, 38.1% and 33.9% in the high-dose group, respectively ( P=0.001). The outcomes of univariate analysis indicated that cervical/upper esophagus location, early (stage Ⅱ) AJCC clinical stage, node negative status, tumor length ≤5 cm, receiving intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), receiving concurrent chemotherapy and EQD 2Gy≥60 Gy were closely associated with better OS (all P<0.05). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that tumor location, regional lymph node metastasis, concurrent chemotherapy and EQD 2Gy were the independent prognostic factors for OS (all P<0.05). Conclusion:Three-dimensional conformal or IMRT with EQD 2Gy≥60 Gy yields favorable survival outcomes for patients with locally advanced ESCC.

Objective: To evaluate the prognostic factors of T1-2N0M0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) treated with definitive radiotherapy. Methods: The clinical data of 196 patients with T1-2N0M0 ESCC who were treated with definitive radiotherapy in 10 hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. All sites were members of Jing-Jin-Ji Esophageal and Esophagogastric Cancer Radiotherapy Oncology Group (3JECROG). Radiochemotherapy were applied to 78 patients, while the other 118 patients received radiotherapy only. 96 patients were treated with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) and 100 treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). The median dose of plan target volume(PTV) and gross target volume(GTV) were both 60 Gy. The median follow-up time was 59.2 months. Log rank test and Cox regression analysis were used for univariat and multivariate analysis, respectively. Results: The percentage of normal lung receiving at least 20 Gy (V₂₀) was (18.65±7.20)%, with average dose of (10.81±42.05) Gy. The percentage of normal heart receiving at least 30 Gy (V₃₀) was (14.21±12.28)%. The maximum dose of exposure in spinal cord was (39.65±8.13) Gy. The incidence of radiation pneumonia and radiation esophagitis were 14.80%(29/196) and 65.82%(129/196), respectively. The adverse events were mostly grade 1-2, without grade 4 toxicity. Median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were 70.1 months and 62.3 months, respectively. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates of all patients were 75.1%、57.4% and 53.2%, respectively. The 1-, 3- and 5-year PFS rates were 75.1%、57.4% and 53.2%, respectively. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that patients′age (HR=1.023, P=0.038) and tumor diameter (HR=1.243, P=0.028)were the independent prognostic factors for OS, while tumor volume were the independent prognostic factor for PFS. Conclusions Definitive radiotherapy is a promising therapeutic method in patients with T1-2N0M0 ESCC. Patients′ age, tumor diameter and tumor volume may impact patients′ prognosis.

Objective:To evaluate the survival and prognostic factors of radiotherapy in patient with Ⅳ stage esophageal squamous carcinoma treated with radiation or chemoradiation.Methods:The medical records of 608 patients with stage Ⅳ esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who met the inclusion criteria in 10 medical centers in China from 2002 to 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. The overall survival and prognostic factors of all patients at 1, 3 and 5 years were analyzed.Results:The 1-, 3-, 5- year overall survival (OS) rates was 66.7%, 29.5% and 24.3% in stage ⅣA patients, and 58.8%, 29.0% and 23.5% in stage ⅣB patients. There was no statistical difference between the two groups ( P=0.255). Univariate analysis demonstrated that the length of lesion, treatment plan, planned tumor target volume (PGTV) dose, subsequent chemotherapy, and degrees of anemia, radiation esophagitis, radiation pneumonia were related to the prognoses of patients with Ⅳ stage esophageal carcinomas after radiotherapy and chemotherapy ( P<0.05). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that PGTV dose ( OR=0.693, P=0.004), radiation esophagitis ( OR=0.867, P=0.038), and radiation pneumonia ( OR=1.181, P=0.004) were independent prognostic factors for OS. Conclusions:For patients with stage Ⅳ esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, chemoradiotherapy followed by sequential chemotherapy is recommended, which can extend the total survival and improve the prognosis of the patients. PGTV dose more than 60 Gy has better efficacy.

Objective:To evaluate the survival and prognostic factors of radiotherapy in patient with Ⅳ stage esophageal squamous carcinoma treated with radiation or chemoradiation.Methods:The medical records of 608 patients with stage Ⅳ esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who met the inclusion criteria in 10 medical centers in China from 2002 to 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. The overall survival and prognostic factors of all patients at 1, 3 and 5 years were analyzed.Results:The 1-, 3-, 5- year overall survival (OS) rates was 66.7%, 29.5% and 24.3% in stage ⅣA patients, and 58.8%, 29.0% and 23.5% in stage ⅣB patients. There was no statistical difference between the two groups ( P=0.255). Univariate analysis demonstrated that the length of lesion, treatment plan, planned tumor target volume (PGTV) dose, subsequent chemotherapy, and degrees of anemia, radiation esophagitis, radiation pneumonia were related to the prognoses of patients with Ⅳ stage esophageal carcinomas after radiotherapy and chemotherapy ( P<0.05). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that PGTV dose ( OR=0.693, P=0.004), radiation esophagitis ( OR=0.867, P=0.038), and radiation pneumonia ( OR=1.181, P=0.004) were independent prognostic factors for OS. Conclusions:For patients with stage Ⅳ esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, chemoradiotherapy followed by sequential chemotherapy is recommended, which can extend the total survival and improve the prognosis of the patients. PGTV dose more than 60 Gy has better efficacy.

Objective To compare the therapeutic effects between three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) and intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) in patients with stage Ⅱ/Ⅲ esophageal cancer and investigate the prognostic factors.Methods Medical record of 2 132 patients with stage Ⅱ/Ⅲ esophageal cancer who underwent definitive radiotherapy with/without chemotherapy in 10 hospitals from January 2002 to December 2016 from were retrospectively analyzed.Among these patients,37.9％ of them were aged ≥ 70 years,33.9％ with neck and upper esophageal tumors and 66.1％ with middle and lower esophageal and borderline tumors.The median gross tumor volume (GTV) and lymph node gross tumor volume (GTVnd) was 41.6 cm3.Among them,32％ were stage Ⅱ] and 68％ were stage Ⅲ.A total of 723 patients received 3DCRT and 1 409 cases received IMRT.Patients received an equivalent dose in 2 Gy (EQD2) ≥ 60 Gy accounted for 86.1％,and 41.1％ of them received concurrent chemoradiotherapy.Results The median follow-up time was 60.8 months.The 1-,3-and 5-year overall survival (OS) of all patients was 73.9％,41.7％ and 32.6％,and the 1-,3-and 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 62.2％,37.3％ and 32％,respectively.Multivariate analysis demonstrated that age,primary tumor location,clinical stage,tumor target volume,EQD2 and concurrent chemoradiotherapy were the independent prognostic factors for OS.Age,primary tumor location,clinical stage,tumor target volume and EQD2 were the independent prognostic factors for PFS.The OS and PFS did not significantly differ among the low-risk,low-/moderate-risk,moderate-/high-risk and high-risk groups according to age≥70 years,tumor diameter＞5 cm,tumor volume ≥41.6 cm3 and stage Ⅲ (P＜0.001).After the propensity score matching (PSM) method,neither 3DCRT nor IMRT yielded significant advantages in OS or PFS (P=0.971;P=0.658).However,IMRT tended to yield survival benefits in low-risk patients (P=0.125).Conclusions Both 3DCRT and IMRT yield relatively high OS rate in patients with stage Ⅱ/Ⅲ esophageal cancer.The prognosis model established in this investigation can properly predict the survival of patients.Low-risk patients tend to obtain survival benefits from IMRT.