SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS OF GENERAL PRACTITIONERS USING A FORECASTING APPROACH UNTIL 2025 AND A MULTI-STATE MARKOV MODEL: A RETROSPECTIVE LONGITUDINAL STUDY ntroduction: Undesirable working conditions, insufficient professional development and other labour market pressures have significantly impacted the status of general practitioners (GPs). This study aimed to conduct a situational analysis of GPs in Iran using a forecasting approach until 2025. Methods: Data were collected concurrently through direct contact, data matching among databases and tracking among graduates from four clusters of medical science universities over the past decade. This retrospective longitudinal study determined the status of GPs over consecutive years. Multi-state Markov and binary logistic regression analyses were performed using R and Stata 14. Results: Of 430 graduates over the past decade, 94% were successfully identified. Only 20% of the graduates remained active as GPs. The greatest fluctuations in transfer occurred in the third year after graduation, with the remaining proportion of GPs dropping to less than 50%. The probability of remaining as GPs was 0.76 per year, while the highest transition was observed towards specialisation (0.12). Additionally, 2% of the GPs chose not to work, and less than 1% transitioned to a different specialty. Based on the transfer matrix for 2025, only 19% of the GPs were projected to remain, with the majority (59%) transitioning to specialisation. Conclusion: The transfer probability varies across different years, indicating higher flow rates among GPs. However, only a limited number of GPs are projected to remain until 2025. A comprehensive set of interventions should be considered, spanning the pre-medical stage, during education and after graduation, to mitigate the factors contributing to GPs leaving their profession.

Objectives: The health system reform process is highly political and controversial, and in most cases, it fails to realize its intended goals. This study was conducted to synthesize factors underlying the failure of health system reforms. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-synthesis, we searched 9 international and regional databases to identify qualitative and mixed-methods studies published up to December 2019. Using thematic synthesis, we analyzed the data. We utilized the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research checklist for quality assessment. Results: After application of the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 40 of 1837 articles were included in the content analysis. The identified factors were organized into 7 main themes and 32 sub-themes. The main themes included: (1) reforms initiators’ attitudes and knowledge; (2) weakness of political support; (3) lack of interest group support; (4) insufficient comprehensiveness of the reform; (5) problems related to the implementation of the reform; (6) harmful consequences of reform implementation; and (7) the political, economic, cultural, and social conditions of the society in which the reform takes place. Conclusions Health system reform is a deep and extensive process, and shortcomings and weaknesses in each step have overcome health reform attempts in many countries. Awareness of these failure factors and appropriate responses to these issues can help policymakers properly plan and implement future reform programs and achieve the ultimate goals of reform: to improve the quantity and quality of health services and the health of society.