To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework.

Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective:To evaluate the effect of fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FEES) on clinical functional outcomes of patients with intensive care unit-acquired swallowing disorders (ICU-ASD).Methods:This retrospective cohort study analyzed clinical data of patients diagnosed with post-extubation dysphagia (PED) in the intensive care unit (ICU) and respiratory intensive care unit (RICU) of the Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University from February 2020 to February 2025. Patients were categorized into a FEES group of 60 cases [34 males, 26 females, aged 37-80 years (median age 62 years)] and a control group without FEES of 58 cases [32 males, 26 females, aged 39-77 years (median age 61 years)].The patients in two groups received swallowing function and feeding training based on the results of the FEES assessment and the Volume-Viscosity Swallow Test-Clinical Version (VVST-CV), respectively. Clinical functional outcome measures included pneumonia incidence, clinical pulmonary infection score (CPIS), pneumonia severity index (PSI), Functional Oral Intake Scale (FOIS), and dietary method at discharge. χ2 test, Mann-Whitney U test, and Wilcoxon signed-rank test, were employed for statistical analysis of the outcome measures. Results:Compared with the control group, the FEES group had significantly lower aspiration pneumonia incidence at discharge [3.3% (2/60) vs 15.5% (9/58), χ2=5.179, P=0.023]. Regarding dietary methods,a significantly higher proportion of patients in the FEES group achieved complete oral feeding compared with the control group [75.0% (45/60) vs 67.3% (39/58), χ2=8.065, P<0.05]. After training, the FEES group had higher median FOIS scores than the control group (7.00 vs 6.00, Z=-2.370, P=0.018), and lower CPIS scores (2.50 vs 5.00, Z=-2.216, P=0.027) and PSI scores (59.00 vs 73.00, Z=-2.251, P=0.024). Within-group comparisons revealed that FOIS scores significantly improved post-training in both groups (both P<0.001). Conclusion:Early FEES examination for ICU patients with acquired swallowing disorders is associated with a lower incidence of pneumonia, improved swallowing function, and superior clinical functional outcomes.

Objective:To evaluate the effect of fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FEES) on clinical functional outcomes of patients with intensive care unit-acquired swallowing disorders (ICU-ASD).Methods:This retrospective cohort study analyzed clinical data of patients diagnosed with post-extubation dysphagia (PED) in the intensive care unit (ICU) and respiratory intensive care unit (RICU) of the Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University from February 2020 to February 2025. Patients were categorized into a FEES group of 60 cases [34 males, 26 females, aged 37-80 years (median age 62 years)] and a control group without FEES of 58 cases [32 males, 26 females, aged 39-77 years (median age 61 years)].The patients in two groups received swallowing function and feeding training based on the results of the FEES assessment and the Volume-Viscosity Swallow Test-Clinical Version (VVST-CV), respectively. Clinical functional outcome measures included pneumonia incidence, clinical pulmonary infection score (CPIS), pneumonia severity index (PSI), Functional Oral Intake Scale (FOIS), and dietary method at discharge. χ2 test, Mann-Whitney U test, and Wilcoxon signed-rank test, were employed for statistical analysis of the outcome measures. Results:Compared with the control group, the FEES group had significantly lower aspiration pneumonia incidence at discharge [3.3% (2/60) vs 15.5% (9/58), χ2=5.179, P=0.023]. Regarding dietary methods,a significantly higher proportion of patients in the FEES group achieved complete oral feeding compared with the control group [75.0% (45/60) vs 67.3% (39/58), χ2=8.065, P<0.05]. After training, the FEES group had higher median FOIS scores than the control group (7.00 vs 6.00, Z=-2.370, P=0.018), and lower CPIS scores (2.50 vs 5.00, Z=-2.216, P=0.027) and PSI scores (59.00 vs 73.00, Z=-2.251, P=0.024). Within-group comparisons revealed that FOIS scores significantly improved post-training in both groups (both P<0.001). Conclusion:Early FEES examination for ICU patients with acquired swallowing disorders is associated with a lower incidence of pneumonia, improved swallowing function, and superior clinical functional outcomes.

Objective To understand the nursing practice of prone position ventilation for patients with moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS)in intensive care unit(ICU)in Shandong province,so as to provide basis for standardizing the nursing practice process of prone position ventilation and carrying out training for hospitals.Methods A self-made questionnaire was used,and convenience sampling was adopted.From September 15th to November 5th,2023,ICU nurses were selected from various hospital levels in Shandong province to investigate the obstructive factors of prone ventilation implementation,the weak links in nursing practice and status,and the occurrence of complications.Results A total of 1 188 questionnaires were collected,of which 991 were valid.92.8%(920/991)of nurses had performed prone position ventilation.The biggest obstacle to the implementation of prone position ventilation was the complexity of patient treatments and multiple devices involved[74.6%(686/920)].Regarding the status of training,90.5%(897/991)of nurses had received training on prone position ventilation and 77.0%(763/991)of nurses felt that training was needed.As for pre-operation assessment,more than 80.0%of nurses evaluated patients'vital signs,airway and secretions and so on,among which the evaluation awareness of analgesia was the worst[81.6%(751/920)].As for the main points of implementation,only 14.0%(129/920)of nurses chose the opposite side of the most important pipeline as the turning direction;48.6%(447/920)of nurses chose the anti-Trendelenburg position;36.3%(334/920)of nurses chose to ventilate≥12 hours.Facial edema[81.7%(752/920)],skin pressure injury[78.9%(726/920)]and eye complication[75.8%(697/920)]were the top 3 most frequent complications.Conclusions ICU nurses'prone position ventilation practices were generally line with the nursing team standard for prone position of adult mechanically ventilated patients and the best evidence recommendation,and needs to be further standardized in aspects of turning direction,position management,ventilation duration,and enteral nutrition management.It is recommended that nursing managers at all levels of hospitals further improve the quality of nursing practice of prone position ventilation according to relevant evidence-based evidence and the actual situation of hospitals.

Objective:To describe the prevalence of anxiety disorders and its distribution in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,and to explore the relevant factors of anxiety disorders.Methods:From June 2019 to Decem-ber 2019,representative multi-stage disproportionate stratified sampling procedure was used to sample in residents aged 18 and over in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.All respondents were face-to-face interviewed by trained interviewers.Composite International Diagnostic Interview-3.0(CIDI-3.0)was used to diagnose anxiety disorders according to the criteria and definition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders,Fourth Edition(DSM-Ⅳ).Chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used for statistical anal-ysis.Results:Totally 12 315 people were interviewed in the survey.The weighted 12-mouth prevalence rate of any anxiety disorder was 4.64％,and the lifetime prevalence rate was 6.25％.The weighted 12-month prevalence rate of anxiety disorders was higher in female than that in male(5.38％vs.3.92％).The rate was higher in rural resi-dents than that in urban residents(5.67％vs.3.95％).The rate was higher in people with chronic diseases than that in people without chronic diseases(6.81％vs.2.29％).Logistic regression analysis showed that unmarried(OR=2.32,95％CI:1.31-4.10),separated/divorced(OR=2.49,95％CI:1.33-4.67),in debt(OR=1.55,95％CI:1.04-2.32),chronic disease(OR=2.22,95％CI:1.39-3.53),family history of anxiety disorders(OR=12.05,95％CI:8.78-16.53),poor sleep(OR=2.64,95％CI:1.97-3.54)were risk factors of occurrence of anxiety disorders,while junior high school(OR=0.65,95％CI:0.44-0.96)was protective factor of anxiety disor-ders.Conclusion:Adults with chronic diseases,poor sleep,unmarried or separated/divorced,family history of anxi-ety disorders,and financial debt are at higher risk groups of anxiety disorder in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Re-gion.

Objective:To describe the prevalence and distributions of mood disorder in Inner Mongolia Au-tonomous Region,and analyze the related risk factors.Methods:The multistage stratified sampling method with un-equal probability was used to select permanent residents aged 18 years and over in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Re-gion.The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 was used as a diagnostic tool.Mood disorders were di-agnosed according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fourth Edition(DSM-Ⅳ).Single and multivariate analyses were used to investigate the related factors of mood disorders.Results:Totally,12 315 community residents were interviewed in the survey.The weighted 12-month prevalence and lifetime prevalence of mood disorder were 5.4％and 8.7％,respectively.Weighted 12-month prevalence of depressive disorder was 4.9％,and that of bipolar disorder was 0.3％.Among all subtypes of mood disorder,the 12-month prevalence rate of major depressive disorder(3.1％)was the highest.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female,unmarried,separated or divorced,unemployment,family history,other mental disorders,sleep disorders and chronic diseases(OR=1.56,2.80,2.07,1.42,13.46,7.97,3.23,2.13)were risk factors of mood disorder,while aged 65 years and over(OR=0.44)was protective factor of mood disorders.The lifetime consultation rate in patients with mood disorders was 15.5％,the rate of psychiatric consultation was 3.7％,the rate of medication was 1.8％.Con-clusion:It indicates that female residents and people who are unmarried,separated and divorced,unemployed,with family history,suffering from other mental disorders,suffering from sleep disorders,and suffering from chronic dis-eases may be high risk groups of mood disorders,and the utilization rate of health services is rather low in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the suspected outbreak of one incident of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii(CRAB)infection in an intensive care unit(ICU)so as to provide experience and reference for preven-tion and control of multidrug-resistant organisms(MDROs)infections in a grass-root hospital.METHODS The epidemiological survey and environmental hygiene surveillance were performed for 8 patients with CRAB infection who were detected in ICU of Qingbaijiang District People's Hospital from Jul.21,2022 to Aug.6,2022 so as to find out the infection sources and transmission routes and take targeted intervention measures.RESULTS Totally 8 patients had CRAB infection in the ICU in a short time period,the drug resistance spectrum was basically the same;the CRAB infection/colonization rate was 12.50％(8/64),the incidence rate of CRAB infection was 7.81％(5/64),which was higher during this period than that during the same period in 2020 and 2021(P＜0.05).The environmental hygiene surveillance showed that the isolation rate of CRAB was 6.00％(3/50).The strains isolated from the hand washing sink between bed 2 and bed 3,the hanging tower of bed 13 and the countertops of treat-ment rooms showed the basically same result of drug susceptibility testing with CRAB strains isolated from the patients.This incident had been effectively under control through targeted prevention and control strategies such as the control and separation of the patients,subgrouping treatment and nursing,repeated deep cleaning and disinfec-tion as well as strict implementation of hand hygiene.CONCLUSION The overloaded enrollment of patients,insuf-ficient between-bed interval,poor and delayed cleaning and disinfection of environmental object surfaces,extensive contamination of instrument and facilities,spare supplies and hand washing sink are probably the leading causes of outbreak and prevalence of CRAB.

Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of common pathogens isolated from cerebrospinal fluid(CSF)in CHINET program from 2015 to 2021.Methods The bacterial strains isolated from CSF were identified in accordance with clinical microbiology practice standards.Antimicrobial susceptibility test was conducted using Kirby-Bauer method and automated systems per the unified CHINET protocol.Results A total of 14 014 bacterial strains were isolated from CSF samples from 2015 to 2021,including the strains isolated from inpatients(95.3％)and from outpatient and emergency care patients(4.7％).Overall,19.6％of the isolates were from children and 80.4％were from adults.Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria accounted for 68.0％and 32.0％,respectively.Coagulase negative Staphylococcus accounted for 73.0％of the total Gram-positive bacterial isolates.The prevalence of MRSA was 38.2％in children and 45.6％in adults.The prevalence of MRCNS was 67.6％in adults and 69.5％in children.A small number of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium(2.2％)and linezolid-resistant Enterococcus faecalis(3.1％)were isolated from adult patients.The resistance rates of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae to ceftriaxone were 52.2％and 76.4％in children,70.5％and 63.5％in adults.The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant E.coli and K.pneumoniae(CRKP)was 1.3％and 47.7％in children,6.4％and 47.9％in adults.The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii(CRAB)and Pseudomonas aeruginosa(CRPA)was 74.0％and 37.1％in children,81.7％and 39.9％in adults.Conclusions The data derived from antimicrobial resistance surveillance are crucial for clinicians to make evidence-based decisions regarding antibiotic therapy.Attention should be paid to the Gram-negative bacteria,especially CRKP and CRAB in central nervous system(CNS)infections.Ongoing antimicrobial resistance surveillance is helpful for optimizing antibiotic use in CNS infections.

Objective To investigate the antimicrobial resistance of clinical isolates from elderly patients(≥65 years)in major medical institutions across China.Methods Bacterial strains were isolated from elderly patients in 52 hospitals participating in the CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program during the period from 2015 to 2021.Antimicrobial susceptibility test was carried out by disk diffusion method and automated systems according to the same CHINET protocol.The data were interpreted in accordance with the breakpoints recommended by the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)in 2021.Results A total of 514 715 nonduplicate clinical isolates were collected from elderly patients in 52 hospitals from January 1,2015 to December 31,2021.The number of isolates accounted for 34.3％of the total number of clinical isolates from all patients.Overall,21.8％of the 514 715 strains were gram-positive bacteria,and 78.2％were gram-negative bacteria.Majority(90.9％)of the strains were isolated from inpatients.About 42.9％of the strains were isolated from respiratory specimens,and 22.9％were isolated from urine.More than half(60.7％)of the strains were isolated from male patients,and 39.3％isolated from females.About 51.1％of the strains were isolated from patients aged 65-＜75 years.The prevalence of methicillin-resistant strains(MRSA)was 38.8％in 32 190 strains of Staphylococcus aureus.No vancomycin-or linezolid-resistant strains were found.The resistance rate of E.faecalis to most antibiotics was significantly lower than that of Enterococcus faecium,but a few vancomycin-resistant strains(0.2％,1.5％)and linezolid-resistant strains(3.4％,0.3％)were found in E.faecalis and E.faecium.The prevalence of penicillin-susceptible S.pneumoniae(PSSP),penicillin-intermediate S.pneumoniae(PISP),and penicillin-resistant S.pneumoniae(PRSP)was 94.3％,4.0％,and 1.7％in nonmeningitis S.pneumoniae isolates.The resistance rates of Klebsiella spp.(Klebsiella pneumoniae 93.2％)to imipenem and meropenem were 20.9％and 22.3％,respectively.Other Enterobacterales species were highly sensitive to carbapenem antibiotics.Only 1.7％-7.8％of other Enterobacterales strains were resistant to carbapenems.The resistance rates of Acinetobacter spp.(Acinetobacter baumannii 90.6％)to imipenem and meropenem were 68.4％and 70.6％respectively,while 28.5％and 24.3％of P.aeruginosa strains were resistant to imipenem and meropenem,respectively.Conclusions The number of clinical isolates from elderly patients is increasing year by year,especially in the 65-＜75 age group.Respiratory tract isolates were more prevalent in male elderly patients,and urinary tract isolates were more prevalent in female elderly patients.Klebsiella isolates were increasingly resistant to multiple antimicrobial agents,especially carbapenems.Antimicrobial resistance surveillance is helpful for accurate empirical antimicrobial therapy in elderly patients.