Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system for the intensive care unit (ICU) and evaluate its application effect in ICU shift handovers. METHODS: A research and development team was established, consisting of 1 department director, 1 head nurse, 3 information technology engineers, 3 nurses, and 2 doctors. Team members were assigned responsibilities including overall coordination and planning, platform design and maintenance, pre-application training, collection and organization of clinical feedback, and research investigation respectively. A digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system was developed for ICU based on the Shannon-Weaver linear transmission model. This innovative system integrated automated data collection, intelligent dynamic monitoring, multidimensional condition analysis and visual reporting functions. A cloud platform was used to gather data from multi-parameter vital signs monitors, infusion pumps, ventilators and other devices. Artificial intelligence algorithms were employed to standardize and analyze the data, providing personalized recommendations for healthcare professionals. A self-controlled before-after method was adopted. Before the application of the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system (from December 2023 to March 2024), the traditional verbal bedside handover was used; from June 2024 to March 2025, the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system was applied for shift handovers. Questionnaires before the application of the shift handover system were collected in April 2024, and those after the application were collected in April 2025. The shift handover time, handover quality (scored by the nursing handover evaluation scale), satisfaction with doctor-nurse communication (scored by the ICU doctor-nurse scale) before and after the application of the handover system were compared, and nurses' satisfaction with the shift handover system (scored by the clinical nursing information system effectiveness evaluation scale) was investigated. RESULTS: After the application of the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system, the shift handover time was significantly shorter than that before the application [minutes: 20 (15, 25) vs. 30 (22, 40)], the handover quality was significantly higher than that before the application [score: 84.0 (78.0, 88.5) vs. 71.0 (55.0, 79.0)], and the satisfaction with doctor-nurse communication was also significantly higher than that before the application (score: 84.58±6.79 vs. 74.50±11.30). All differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). In addition, the nurses' system effectiveness evaluation scale score was 102.30±10.56, which indicated that nurses had a very high level of satisfaction with the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system. CONCLUSIONS The application of the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system can shorten the shift handover time, improve the handover quality, and enhance the satisfaction with doctor-nurse communication. Nurses have a high level of satisfaction with this system.
Intensive Care Units ; Humans ; Patient Handoff ; Artificial Intelligence ; Algorithms

Background::Genetic variants of dopaminergic transcription factor-encoding genes are suggested to be Parkinson’s disease (PD) risk factors; however, no comprehensive analyses of these genes in patients with PD have been undertaken. Therefore, we aimed to genetically analyze 16 dopaminergic transcription factor genes in Chinese patients with PD.Methods::Whole-exome sequencing (WES) was performed using a Chinese cohort comprising 1917 unrelated patients with familial or sporadic early-onset PD and 1652 controls. Additionally, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was performed using another Chinese cohort comprising 1962 unrelated patients with sporadic late-onset PD and 1279 controls.Results::We detected 308 rare and 208 rare protein-altering variants in the WES and WGS cohorts, respectively. Gene-based association analyses of rare variants suggested that MSX1 is enriched in sporadic late-onset PD. However, the significance did not pass the Bonferroni correction. Meanwhile, 72 and 1730 common variants were found in the WES and WGS cohorts, respectively. Unfortunately, single-variant logistic association analyses did not identify significant associations between common variants and PD. Conclusions::Variants of 16 typical dopaminergic transcription factors might not be major genetic risk factors for PD in Chinese patients. However, we highlight the complexity of PD and the need for extensive research elucidating its etiology.

Objective:To understand the epidemiology of rubella and the genetic characteristics of the virus circulating during the period 2021-2022, providing basic scientific data for rubella prevention and control in China.Methods:National rubella incidence data for the period 2021-2022 were obtained from the Infectious Disease Surveillance System module and the Surveillance Report Management module of the China′s Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Positive rubella virus(RuV)isolates were obtained from the National Measles/Rubella Laboratory Network. Two nucleotide (nt) fragments [F1-480 (8 633-9 112 nt) and F2-633 (8 945-9 577 nt)] located in the E1 gene were amplified and determined by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and the target gene (E1-739) was obtained after collating and splicing. The sequences obtained in this study were used to construct a phylogenetic tree with the reported reference strains for genotype and lineage identification. Additionally, the phylogenetic analysis was performed to assess their genetic relatedness of RuV strains prevalent in China during 2018-2020 from GenBank database.Results:In 2021-2022, the rubella incidence in China was 0.06/100, 000 (2021: 840 cases; 2022: 784 cases), with cases primarily concentrated in the western and southern provinces. Age distribution analysis showed that rubella cases in 2021-2022 was mainly in children under 5 years of age (2021: 34.17%, 287/840; 2022: 42.09%, 330/784), with the highest proportion in children aged 0-2 years. Further analysis of the immunization history of cases revealed that in the 8-23 months age group, a significant proportion of cases had received only one dose of rubella containing vaccine (RCV); cases in the 2-14 years age group were mainly among children who had received two or more doses of RCV; however, cases over 15 years of age were primarily found in individuals who had not received RCV or had unknown immunization history. National virological surveillance data showed that totally 22 RuV virus isolates were obtained, from 6 provinces in China during 2021-2022, which belonged to lineage 1E-L2 (11 strains) and 2B-L2c (11 strains). And these viruses displayed high genetic homology with RuV prevalent from 2018 to 2020.Conclusions:The incidence of rubella in China was maintained at a low level during 2021-2022, and the prevalent RuV strains were lineage 1E-L2 and 2B-L2c.

Objective:To investigate the protective effects and mechanism of Shenyan 1 Prescription on renal fibrosis of unilateral ureteral obstruction (UUO) rats through TGF- β 1/Smad homologous 3 (Smad3) pathway regulating ferroptosis.Methods:Totally 48 male SD rats were divided into four groups: sham-operation group, UUO model group, and Shenyan 1 Prescription low-(10 drug/kg) , and high-dosage (20 crude drug/kg) groups according to random number table method, with 12 rats in each group. The UUO model was induced by the method of unilateral ureteral obstruction except for those sham-operation group. After modeling, rats received corresponding drugs or normal saline by gavage for 4 weeks, once per day. After 4 weeks, the body mass and the left kidney weight were measured. The 24 h urine protein and the levels of serum albumin (ALB), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), serum creatinine (SCr) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were detected by biochemical analysis method; the ROS level in renal tissue was measured using a chemical fluorescence assay kit, and the SOD and MDA levels in left renal tissue of rats were measured using ELISA method; the morphology of renal tissue and the specific blue staining of hemosiderin were observed using HE and Prussian blue staining methods, respectively; the expressions of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), Smad3, glutathione peroxidase 4 (GPX4), and solute carrier family 1 member 5 (SLC1A5) were detected by Western blot.Results:Compared with the model group, the 24 h urinary protein excretion in Shenyan 1 Prescription high-dosage group decreased ( P<0.05), the serum ALB level increased ( P<0.05), the ALT level decreased ( P<0.05), and the expression of SLC1A5 in renal tissue decreased ( P<0.05); the left kidney weight/body decreased in Shenyan 1 Prescription low- and high-dosage groups ( P<0.05); the levels of serum ROS and MDA decreased ( P<0.05), and the activity of SOD significantly increased ( P<0.05); the expressions of TGF-β1 and Smad3 in renal tissue decreased ( P<0.05), and the expression of GPX4 increased ( P<0.05), and the renal pathological injury and ion deposition were improved. Conclusion:Shenyan 1 Prescription has a protective effect on the structure and function of renal tissues in UUO rats through regulating ferroptosis via inhibition of the TGF-β1/ Smad3 pathway to inhibit renal fibrosis of UUO rats.

Objective:To study the current status of longitudinal extrauterine growth restriction (EUGR) in extremely preterm infants (EPIs) and to develop a prediction model based on clinical data from multiple NICUs.Methods:From January 2017 to December 2018, EPIs admitted to 32 NICUs in North China were retrospectively studied. Their general conditions, nutritional support, complications during hospitalization and weight changes were reviewed. Weight loss between birth and discharge > 1SD was defined as longitudinal EUGR. The EPIs were assigned into longitudinal EUGR group and non-EUGR group and their nutritional support and weight changes were compared. The EPIs were randomly assigned into the training dataset and the validation dataset with a ratio of 7∶3. Univariate Cox regression analysis and multiple regression analysis were used in the training dataset to select the independent predictive factors. The best-fitting Nomogram model predicting longitudinal EUGR was established based on Akaike Information Criterion. The model was evaluated for discrimination efficacy, calibration and clinical decision curve analysis.Results:A total of 436 EPIs were included in this study, with a mean gestational age of (26.9±0.9) weeks and a birth weight of (989±171) g. The incidence of longitudinal EUGR was 82.3%(359/436). Seven variables (birth weight Z-score, weight loss, weight growth velocity, the proportion of breast milk ≥75% within 3 d before discharge, invasive mechanical ventilation ≥7 d, maternal antenatal corticosteroids use and bronchopulmonary dysplasia) were selected to establish the prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training dataset and the validation dataset were 0.870 (95% CI 0.820-0.920) and 0.879 (95% CI 0.815-0.942), suggesting good discrimination efficacy. The calibration curve indicated a good fit of the model ( P>0.05). The decision curve analysis showed positive net benefits at all thresholds. Conclusions:Currently, EPIs have a high incidence of longitudinal EUGR. The prediction model is helpful for early identification and intervention for EPIs with higher risks of longitudinal EUGR. It is necessary to expand the sample size and conduct prospective studies to optimize and validate the prediction model in the future.

Objective:To observe the therapeutic effect of intraocular lens (IOL) protected phacoemulsification (PHACO) in patients with hard nucleus cataract.Methods:A randomized controlled clinical study was conducted.A total of consecutive 120 patients (120 eyes) with hard nucleus cataract of Emery grade Ⅳ or Ⅴ were enrolled from January 2019 to May 2022.The patients were randomly divided into PHACO group receiving routine PHACO, IOL protected PHACO group receiving PHACO under IOL protection, and extracapsular cataract extraction (ECCE) group receiving ECCE, with 40 cases (40 eyes) in each group.Finally, 99 patients completed the follow-up, including 30 cases (30 eyes) in PHACO group, 35 cases (35 eyes) in IOL protected PHACO group, and 34 cases (34 eyes) in ECCE group.The total operation time, intraoperative PHACO time and cumulative energy release of each patient were recorded.The corneal endothelial cell density (ECD), coefficient of variation in endothelial cell area (CV), hexagonal endothelial cell ratio (6A), corneal astigmatism and the number of eyes with different grades of uncorrected visual acuity were measured and compared after 3-month follow-up.The intraoperative and postoperative complications were recorded.This study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Ethics Committee of Yanbian University Hospital (NO.2023002).Patients were informed of study content and purpose and signed a consent form before treatment.Results:There was no significant difference in ultrasonic energy and time between PHACO group and IOL protected PHACO group ( P=0.691, 0.982).The total operation time was (38.81±2.73) and (36.45±3.45) minutes in PHACO group and IOL protected PHACO group, significantly shorter than (69.60±4.35) minutes in ECCE group (both at P<0.001).There was no significant difference in age, sex, lens nucleus hardness and other baseline data among the three groups before operation (all at P>0.05).Three months after operation, the number of patients with higher uncorrected visual acuity in PHACO group and IOL protected PHACO group was larger than that in ECCE group ( P=0.006, 0.007).The ECD and 6A in IOL protected PHACO group were (2 155.57±177.88)/mm 2 and (41.31±5.18)%, respectively, which were significantly higher than (1 912.64±224.11)/mm 2 and (36.18±3.27)% in PHACO group, and the CV in IOL protected PHACO group was (50.34±5.90)%, which was lower than (55.67±3.30)% in PHACO group, showing statistically significant differences ( P=0.007, 0.003, 0.005).At 1 week and 3 months after the operation, the corneal astigmatism was significantly lower in IOL-protected PHACO group than in ECCE group, but higher than in PHACO group, and the difference were statistically significant (all at P<0.05). Conclusions:Compared with conventional PHACO, IOL-protected PHACO can effectively reduce the damage of corneal endothelium caused by ultrasonic energy, shorten the operation time and reduce postoperative inflammatory reaction compared with ECCE, and does not significantly increase postoperative corneal astigmatism.IOL-protected PHACO is an effective improved surgical method for patients with hard nucleus cataract.

ObjectiveTo explore the effects and mechanisms of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang on hepatic oxidative stress injury in type 2 diabetes mellitus （T2DM） rats based on the nuclear factor erythroid 2 related factor 2 （Nrf2）/heme oxygenase-1 （HO-1） axis. MethodSix ZDF （fa/+） rats were as assigned to the blank group， and 30 ZDF （fa/fa） rats were used to induce the T2DM model by feeding a high-fat diet. After successful modeling， the rats were randomly divided into the model group， metformin group （0.18 g·kg^-1）， and low， medium， and high dose groups of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang （0.54， 1.08， 2.16 g·kg^-1）， with six rats in each group. After 12 weeks of drug intervention， the body mass， liver mass， fasting blood glucose （FBG）， and oral glucose tolerance test （OGTT） levels were measured. Serum total cholesterol （TC）， triglycerides （TG）， high-density lipoprotein cholesterol （HDL）， low-density lipoprotein cholesterol （LDL）， alanine aminotransferase （ALT）， and aspartate aminotransferase （AST） levels were detected using an automatic biochemical analyzer. The pathological changes of liver tissue were observed by hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） was used to detect the activity of superoxide dismutase （SOD）， reactive oxygen species （ROS）， glutathione peroxidase （GSH-Px）， and the level of malondialdehyde （MDA） in liver tissues. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expression of Nrf2 in the liver. Real time quantitative polymerase chain reaction （Real-time PCR） and Western blot were used to detect the mRNA and protein expression levels of Nrf2 and HO-1 in liver tissues. ResultCompared with the normal group， the model group showed a significant increase in body mass， liver mass， and liver index （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the metformin group and the medium and high dose groups of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed a significant decrease in body weight， liver mass， and liver index （P<0.01）. Compared with the normal group， the model group showed significantly increased TC， TG， and LDL levels （P<0.01）， and significantly decreased HDL levels （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the metformin group and all doses of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed significantly reduced TC levels （P<0.01）， and significantly reduced TG levels （P<0.05）. The medium and high dose groups of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed significantly reduced LDL levels （P<0.05）. The metformin group and all doses of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed significantly increased HDL levels （P<0.05）. Compared with the normal group， the model group showed significantly increased ALT and AST activities （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， all doses of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang and the metformin group showed significantly reduced ALT activities （P<0.05） and significantly reduced AST activities （P<0.01）. Compared with normal group， the model group showed significantly increased FBG at all time points （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the metformin group and all doses of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed significantly reduced FBG at 8， 10， 12 weeks. The OGTT results showed that compared with the normal group， the model group had significantly increased blood glucose at all time points （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the metformin group showed significantly reduced blood glucose at all time points （P<0.01）， and the medium and high dose groups of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed significantly reduced blood glucose at 90， 120 min （P<0.01）. HE pathology showed clear and regular liver cell structure in the normal group， while the model group showed disordered liver cell structure with visible fat vacuoles and a large number of deformed necrotic cells. The liver tissue structure improved in the metformin group and all doses of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang， with fewer necrotic cells. Compared with the normal group， the model group showed significantly reduced SOD and GSH-Px levels （P<0.01）， and significantly increased ROS and MDA levels （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the metformin group and all doses of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed significantly increased SOD and GSH-Px levels （P<0.01）， and significantly reduced MDA levels （P<0.01）. The medium and high dose groups of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed significantly reduced ROS levels （P<0.05）. Compared with the normal group， the model group showed significantly reduced Nrf2 and HO-1 mRNA expression levels （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the metformin group and the medium and high dose groups of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed significantly increased Nrf2 and HO-1 mRNA expression levels （P<0.05）. Immunohistochemistry showed that compared with the normal group， the model group had significantly reduced positive expression of Nrf2 and HO-1 （P<0.05）. Compared with the model group， the metformin group and all doses of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed increased positive expression of Nrf2 and HO-1， with a significant increase in brown-yellow granules around the cell nucleus （P<0.05）. Western blot results showed that compared with the normal group， the model group had significantly reduced protein expression of Nrf2 and HO-1 （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the metformin group and all doses of modified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang showed significantly increased protein expression of Nrf2 and HO-1 （P<0.01）. ConclusionModified Dahuang Huanglian Xiexintang can significantly improve the general condition and pathological changes of liver tissues in T2DM model rats. This improvement is likely achieved through ameliorating hepatic oxidative stress injury via regulating the Nrf2/HO-1 axis.

Objective To evaluate the applicability of the comprehensive index method for assessing occupational health risks on chemical hazards in key work sites of a metal product enterprise. Methods A metal product enterprise in Beijing City was chosen as the research subject using the convenience sampling method. Occupational health investigations and chemical hazard monitoring were conducted at four work sites: grinding machine operation, welding, cutting, and painting. The comprehensive index method was used to determine the risk levels of chemical hazards. Results The grinding dust in the grinding machine operation work site was assessed as moderate risk. The nitrogen oxides and ozone in the welding (southeast) work sites were assessed as moderate risk. The nitrogen oxides ozone and welding fumes in the welding (northwest) and cutting work site were assessed as moderate risk. Benzene in the painting work site was assessed as moderate risk. All chemical hazards in other work sites were determined to pose low risks. Co-exposures to nitrogen oxides and ozone in the two welding work sites and cutting work site were classified as moderate risk. Co-exposure to ethylbenzene, xylene, methanol, ethyl acetate, and butyl acetate in the painting work site also posed moderate risk, while the co-exposure to toluene and methanol in the painting work site was assessed as low risk. Conclusion The comprehensive index method could be used for the occupational health risk assessment in the metal product enterprise. The enterprise should strengthen hazard control measures for exposure to grinding dust, welding fumes, nitrogen oxides, ozone, and benzene, and closely monitor the health risks associated with co-exposures of chemical hazards.