Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective: To explore the application and clinical efficacy of red blood cell therapeutic apheresis in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) and hereditary hemochromatosis (HH). Methods: 1) The EPP patient was hospitalized twice for "abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and brown urine". One and two sessions of red blood cell exchange/therapeutic plasma exchange (RCE/TPE) were respectively performed during the two hospitalizations. During each session, one RCE with 6-8 units of leukoreduced RBCs and 3-4 TPE procedures with 1 800-2 000 mL of frozen plasma was conducted. Biochemical parameters were monitored before and after treatment. 2) The HH patient was hospitalized for “repeatedly elevated aminotransferases”. Erythrocytapheresis was performed once, removing 550 mL of red blood cells, and venous phlebotomy was conducted once every 2 months subsequently. Blood routine and ferritin levels were assessed before and after treatment. Results: 1) During the first hospitalization, the EPP patient was relieved of the abdominal pain and brown urine after therapeutic apheresis. The total bilirubin level decreased from 141.8 μmol/L on admission to 68.6 μmol/L at discharge, with a symptom remission duration of 10 months. During the second hospitalization, the EPP patient still had recurrent abdominal pain after therapeutic apheresis. He developed psychiatric symptoms and gastrointestinal bleeding subsequently, accompanied by elevated bilirubin levels. Liver function deteriorated and the patient went into the state of the end-stage liver disease (ESLD). 2) For the HH patient, the hemoglobin level prior to erythrocytapheresis and vein phlebotomy was 150-160 g/L, with the lowest value occurring two days after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 107 g/L. The ferritin level before erythrocytapheresis was 2 428.08 ng/mL and it declined gradually after theraphy, with the lowest value occurring two months after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 1 094 ng/mL. The ferritin level was 1 114 ng/mL two months following the first vein phlebotomy, however it increased to 1 472 ng/mL two months after the second vein phlebotomy. Conclusion: RCE/TPE may alleviate protoporphyrin liver disease and help patients with bridging liver transplantation before EPP developments to ESLD. For HH patients with significantly elevated ferritin levels, erythrocytapheresis reduces serum ferritin more quickly and maintains its level longer relative to phlebotomy.

Objective: To explore the application and clinical efficacy of red blood cell therapeutic apheresis in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) and hereditary hemochromatosis (HH). Methods: 1) The EPP patient was hospitalized twice for "abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and brown urine". One and two sessions of red blood cell exchange/therapeutic plasma exchange (RCE/TPE) were respectively performed during the two hospitalizations. During each session, one RCE with 6-8 units of leukoreduced RBCs and 3-4 TPE procedures with 1 800-2 000 mL of frozen plasma was conducted. Biochemical parameters were monitored before and after treatment. 2) The HH patient was hospitalized for “repeatedly elevated aminotransferases”. Erythrocytapheresis was performed once, removing 550 mL of red blood cells, and venous phlebotomy was conducted once every 2 months subsequently. Blood routine and ferritin levels were assessed before and after treatment. Results: 1) During the first hospitalization, the EPP patient was relieved of the abdominal pain and brown urine after therapeutic apheresis. The total bilirubin level decreased from 141.8 μmol/L on admission to 68.6 μmol/L at discharge, with a symptom remission duration of 10 months. During the second hospitalization, the EPP patient still had recurrent abdominal pain after therapeutic apheresis. He developed psychiatric symptoms and gastrointestinal bleeding subsequently, accompanied by elevated bilirubin levels. Liver function deteriorated and the patient went into the state of the end-stage liver disease (ESLD). 2) For the HH patient, the hemoglobin level prior to erythrocytapheresis and vein phlebotomy was 150-160 g/L, with the lowest value occurring two days after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 107 g/L. The ferritin level before erythrocytapheresis was 2 428.08 ng/mL and it declined gradually after theraphy, with the lowest value occurring two months after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 1 094 ng/mL. The ferritin level was 1 114 ng/mL two months following the first vein phlebotomy, however it increased to 1 472 ng/mL two months after the second vein phlebotomy. Conclusion: RCE/TPE may alleviate protoporphyrin liver disease and help patients with bridging liver transplantation before EPP developments to ESLD. For HH patients with significantly elevated ferritin levels, erythrocytapheresis reduces serum ferritin more quickly and maintains its level longer relative to phlebotomy.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of acupuncture-moxibustion on idiopathic facial palsy (IFP) at acute phase and recovery phase. METHODS: According to whether received acupuncture-moxibustion at acute phase or not, 198 IFP patients were divided into an early-phase intervention group (118 cases) and a non-early-phase intervention group (80 cases). With the propensity score matching employed, 70 cases were included in each group. On the basis of the conventional treatment of western medicine, acupuncture-moxibustion was supplemented in the two groups. In the early-phase intervention group, acupuncture-moxibustion was delivered at the acute phase (duration of illness≤7 days); in the non-early-phase intervention group, acupuncture-moxibustion was operated at the recovery phase (duration of illness>7 days). At the acute phase, warm needling was performed at Yifeng (TE17), Xiaguan (ST7), Hegu (LI4) and Zusanli (ST36) on the affected side; and at the recovery phase, electroacupuncture was delivered at Cuanzhu (BL2), Sizhukong (TE23) and Yangbai (GB14), etc. on the affected side, with the disperse-dense wave and 2 Hz/100 Hz of frequency. The intervention was operated for 30 min each time, once every two days, three treatments weekly and for 4 weeks. Before treatment, 1 week and 4 weeks of treatment, the House-Brackmann (H-B) facial nerve function grade, the score of Sunnybrook facial nerve function, and the score of facial disability index (FDI) were compared between the two groups. The clinical effect in 1 and 4 weeks of treatment and safety were evaluated. RESULTS: In 1 and 4 weeks of treatment, the H-B grade was improved when compared with that before treatment in each group (P<0.05), and in 4 weeks of treatment, H-B grade in the early-phase intervention group was superior to that of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). In 1 and 4 weeks of treatment, Sunnybrook scores and the scores of physical function of FDI were elevated in comparison with those before treatment in the two groups (P<0.05); and in 4 weeks of treatment, the elevation of these two indexes in the early-phase intervention group was greater than that of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). In 4 weeks of treatment, the scores of social function in FDI were reduced when compared with those before treatment in the two groups (P<0.05). In 4 weeks of treatment, the total effective rate (97.1%, 68/70) in the early-phase intervention group was higher than that (87.1%, 61/70) of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events between the two groups (P>0.05). CONCLUSION Acupuncture-moxibustion therapy starting at the acute phase is more beneficial to the functional recovery of the impaired facial nerve than at the recovery phase in the IFP patients.
Humans ; Female ; Male ; Acupuncture Therapy ; Moxibustion ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; Acupuncture Points ; Treatment Outcome ; Facial Paralysis/therapy* ; Cohort Studies ; Aged ; Bell Palsy/therapy* ; Adolescent

Autoimmune hepatitis （AIH） is a chronic inflammatory liver disease. The pathogenesis of AIH remains unclear， but it is mainly autoimmune injury caused by the breakdown of autoimmune tolerance due to the abnormal activation of the immune system， while the specific molecular mechanism remains unknown. Recent studies have shown that abnormal amino acid metabolism plays an important role in the development and progression of AIH. This article reviews the research advances in amino acid metabolic reprogramming in AIH， in order to provide a theoretical basis for amino acid metabolism as a new target for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of AIH.

Objective To analyze risk factors for sleep disorders in patients with chronic heart failure(CHF)and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods Using simple random sampling,306 hospital-ized CHF patients meeting inclusion criteria were enrolled from four Grade A tertiary hospitals in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region(two in Nanning,one each in Yulin and Guilin)between March 2023 and March 2024.LASSO regression analysis was initially employed for variable screening,followed by logistic regression to identify predictive variables for constructing the nomogram model.Model validation and performance evalua-tion were conducted using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,and clinical decision curves,with internal validation performed through Bootstrap resampling(1 000 iterations).Results The incidence of sleep disorders among the 306 patients was 57.5%(176/306).Logistic regression analysis identified eight independent risk factors for sleep disorders in CHF patients(P＜0.05):age,education level,monthly house-hold income per capita,NYHA cardiac function classification,number of comorbidities,triglyceride levels,ano-rexia,and anxiety.The model demonstrated good discrimination for the AUC of 0.91(95%CI:0.77-0.88)and calibration consistency.Conclusion The prediction model established in this study shows good predictive performance,serving as a valuable reference for healthcare providers to early identify sleep disorders and im-plement preventive care strategies in patients with CHF.

Objective:To evaluate the safety and effectiveness of fuzuloparib for the treatment of ovarian epithelial cancer patients in the real world setting.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the baseline data of 4 620 ovarian cancer patients who had received fuzuloparib monotherapy or combination therapy. Another 224 ovarian cancer patients who were willing to receive fuzuloparib monotherapy or combination therapy were prospectively enrolled, and their baseline characteristics, drug effectiveness, and safety data were analyzed.Results:(1) Among the 4 620 patients in the retrospective cohort, the median age of patients was 60 years; tumor types: 89.8% (4 149/4 620) had ovarian cancer. Among patients with clearly documented information, the vast majority had a histological type of serous carcinoma (82.9%, 3 770/4 546) and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging of Ⅲ-Ⅳ (90.9%, 1 537/1 691). (2) Among the 224 patients in the prospective cohort, the median age of patients was 57 years; tumor types: 83.9% (188/224) had ovarian cancer. Among patients with clearly documented records, the predominant pathologic type was serous carcinoma (91.9%, 193/210), and FIGO stage was Ⅲ-Ⅳ in 79.9% (139/174). (3) Among the 224 prospective patients: 84 patients received first-line fluzoparib maintenance therapy, 92 patients received fluzoparib maintenance therapy after platinum-sensitive recurrence, 23 patients received direct fluzoparib treatment after platinum-sensitive recurrence, 19 patients received direct fluzoparib treatment after platinum-resistant recurrence. The median follow-up durations were 8.5, 8.7, 7.9, and 6.7 months, respectively. The median durations of fluzoparib treatment were 6.7, 4.8, 3.1, and 1.9 months, respectively. The median progression-free survival (PFS) times were not reached during follow-up, 12.6 months, not reached during follow-up, and 4.8 months, respectively. The 1-year PFS rates were 84.1%, 55.0%, 69.8%, and 45.5%, respectively. The remaining 6 patients received other fluzoparib regimens. (4) Among the 224 patients in the prospective dataset, 205 had safety data recorded. Of these, 127 patients (62.0%, 127/205) experienced treatment-related adverse events, with common events including anemia (24.4%, 50/205), thrombocytopenia (21.0%, 43/205), and leukopenia (19.5%, 40/205). Among the 205 patients, 43 (21.0%, 43/205) experienced grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events, with common events including anemia (8.3%, 17/205) and thrombocytopenia (8.3%, 17/205).Conclusions:The effectiveness of fuzuloparib in clinical application is generally consistent with other drugs in the same class, with good safety. This study provids new clinical evidence for the treatment of ovarian cancer with fuzuloparib.

Objective To examine the changing prevalence and antimicrobial resistance profiles of Burkholderia cepacia in 52 hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021.Methods A total of 9 261 strains of B.cepacia were collected from 52 hospitals between January 1,2015 and December 31,2021.Antimicrobial susceptibility of the strains was tested using Kirby-Bauer method or automated antimicrobial susceptibility testing systems according to a unified protocol.The results were interpreted according to the breakpoints released in the Clinical & Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)guidelines(2023 edition).Results A total of 9 261 strains of B.cepacia were isolated from all age groups,especially elderly patients.The proportion was 11.1％(1 032 strains)in children,significantly lower than the proportion in adults.About half(46.5％,4 310/9 261)of the strains were isolated from patients at least 60 years old and 42.3％(3 919/9 261)of the strains were isolated from young adults.Most isolates(71.1％)were isolated from sputum and respiratory secretions,followed by urine(10.7％)and blood samples(8.1％).B.cepacia isolates were highly susceptible to the five antimicrobial agents recommended in the CLSI M100 document(33rd edition,2023).B.cepacia isolates showed relatively higher resistance rates to meropenem and levofloxacin.However,the resistance rates to ceftazidime,trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole,and minocycline remained below 8.1％.The percentage of B.cepacia strains resistant to levofloxacin was the highest compared to other antibiotics in any of the three age groups(from 12.4％in the patients＜18 years old to 20.6％in the patients aged 60 years or older).Conclusions B.cepacia is one of the clinically important non-fermenting gram-negative bacteria.Accurate and timely reporting of antimicrobial susceptibility test results and ongoing antimicrobial resistance surveillance are helpful for rational prescription of antimicrobial agents and proper prevention and control of nosocomial infections.

The clinical data of a child with refractory systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA) who was admitted to the Children′s Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine in October 2023 were analyzed, and literature review was conducted.The patient was a 9-year-old boy, who was admitted due to recurrent fever, accompanied by rash and joint pain for more than 4 years.Four years ago, he was diagnosed with macrophage activation syndrome and sJIA.In the past 4 years, the condition recurred 3 times under treatment with glucocorticoids, Cyclosporine, and Methotrexate.He previously experienced allergic shock after 5 minutes of infusion of Tocilizumab.Due to Tocilizumab allergy, he was treated with Janus kinase inhibitors, but the disease still recurred.After informed consent was obtained from the guardian, 240 mg of Tocilizumab was administrated for desensitization once every 2 weeks and the process went smoothly.The patient has been followed up for more than 6 months and no allergic reactions had occurred.The condition was well controlled, and the Prednisone acetate tablet had been reduced to 2.5 mg orally once a day.At present, there are 10 patients undergoing desensitization treatment both domestically and internationally, including 2 males and 8 females, aged between 2.5 and 54.0 years.All of them have achieved a success in desensitization.Therefore, Tocilizumab desensitization therapy is of great significance for patients who are allergic to biologics in clinical practice.

Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of clinically isolated Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis in hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021,and provide evidence for rational use of antimicrobial agents.Methods Data of H.influenzae and M.catarrhalis strains isolated from 2015 to 2021 in CHINET program were collected for analysis,and antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by disc diffusion method or automated systems according to the uniform protocol of CHINET.The results were interpreted according to the CLSI breakpoints in 2022.Beta-lactamases was detected by using nitrocefin disk.Results From 2015 to 2021,a total of 43 642 strains of Haemophilus species were isolated,accounting for 2.91％of the total clinical isolates and 4.07％of Gram-negative bacteria in CHINET program.Among the 40 437 strains of H.influenzae,66.89％were isolated from children and 33.11％were isolated from adults.More than 90％of the H.influenzae strains were isolated from respiratory tract specimens.The prevalence of β-lactamase was 53.79％in H.influenzae strains.The H.influenzae strains isolated from children showed higher resistance rate than the strains isolated from adults.Overall,779 strains of H.influenzae did not produce β-lactamase but were resistant to ampicillin(BLNAR).Beta-lactamase-producing strains showed significantly higher resistance rates to these antimicrobial agents than the β-lactamase-nonproducing strains.Of the 16 191 M.catarrhalis strains,80.06％were isolated from children and 19.94％isolated from adults.M.catarrhalis strains were mostly susceptible to both amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and cefuroxime,evidenced by resistance rate lower than 2.0％.Conclusions The emergence of antibiotic-resistant H.influenzae due to β-lactamase production poses a challenge for clinical anti-infective treatment.Therefore,it is very important to implement antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae and guide rational antibiotic use.All local clinical microbiology laboratories should actively improve antibiotic susceptibility testing and strengthen antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae.