Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Autoimmune hepatitis （AIH） is a chronic inflammatory liver disease. The pathogenesis of AIH remains unclear， but it is mainly autoimmune injury caused by the breakdown of autoimmune tolerance due to the abnormal activation of the immune system， while the specific molecular mechanism remains unknown. Recent studies have shown that abnormal amino acid metabolism plays an important role in the development and progression of AIH. This article reviews the research advances in amino acid metabolic reprogramming in AIH， in order to provide a theoretical basis for amino acid metabolism as a new target for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of AIH.

Objective: To explore the application and clinical efficacy of red blood cell therapeutic apheresis in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) and hereditary hemochromatosis (HH). Methods: 1) The EPP patient was hospitalized twice for "abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and brown urine". One and two sessions of red blood cell exchange/therapeutic plasma exchange (RCE/TPE) were respectively performed during the two hospitalizations. During each session, one RCE with 6-8 units of leukoreduced RBCs and 3-4 TPE procedures with 1 800-2 000 mL of frozen plasma was conducted. Biochemical parameters were monitored before and after treatment. 2) The HH patient was hospitalized for “repeatedly elevated aminotransferases”. Erythrocytapheresis was performed once, removing 550 mL of red blood cells, and venous phlebotomy was conducted once every 2 months subsequently. Blood routine and ferritin levels were assessed before and after treatment. Results: 1) During the first hospitalization, the EPP patient was relieved of the abdominal pain and brown urine after therapeutic apheresis. The total bilirubin level decreased from 141.8 μmol/L on admission to 68.6 μmol/L at discharge, with a symptom remission duration of 10 months. During the second hospitalization, the EPP patient still had recurrent abdominal pain after therapeutic apheresis. He developed psychiatric symptoms and gastrointestinal bleeding subsequently, accompanied by elevated bilirubin levels. Liver function deteriorated and the patient went into the state of the end-stage liver disease (ESLD). 2) For the HH patient, the hemoglobin level prior to erythrocytapheresis and vein phlebotomy was 150-160 g/L, with the lowest value occurring two days after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 107 g/L. The ferritin level before erythrocytapheresis was 2 428.08 ng/mL and it declined gradually after theraphy, with the lowest value occurring two months after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 1 094 ng/mL. The ferritin level was 1 114 ng/mL two months following the first vein phlebotomy, however it increased to 1 472 ng/mL two months after the second vein phlebotomy. Conclusion: RCE/TPE may alleviate protoporphyrin liver disease and help patients with bridging liver transplantation before EPP developments to ESLD. For HH patients with significantly elevated ferritin levels, erythrocytapheresis reduces serum ferritin more quickly and maintains its level longer relative to phlebotomy.

Objective: To explore the application and clinical efficacy of red blood cell therapeutic apheresis in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) and hereditary hemochromatosis (HH). Methods: 1) The EPP patient was hospitalized twice for "abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and brown urine". One and two sessions of red blood cell exchange/therapeutic plasma exchange (RCE/TPE) were respectively performed during the two hospitalizations. During each session, one RCE with 6-8 units of leukoreduced RBCs and 3-4 TPE procedures with 1 800-2 000 mL of frozen plasma was conducted. Biochemical parameters were monitored before and after treatment. 2) The HH patient was hospitalized for “repeatedly elevated aminotransferases”. Erythrocytapheresis was performed once, removing 550 mL of red blood cells, and venous phlebotomy was conducted once every 2 months subsequently. Blood routine and ferritin levels were assessed before and after treatment. Results: 1) During the first hospitalization, the EPP patient was relieved of the abdominal pain and brown urine after therapeutic apheresis. The total bilirubin level decreased from 141.8 μmol/L on admission to 68.6 μmol/L at discharge, with a symptom remission duration of 10 months. During the second hospitalization, the EPP patient still had recurrent abdominal pain after therapeutic apheresis. He developed psychiatric symptoms and gastrointestinal bleeding subsequently, accompanied by elevated bilirubin levels. Liver function deteriorated and the patient went into the state of the end-stage liver disease (ESLD). 2) For the HH patient, the hemoglobin level prior to erythrocytapheresis and vein phlebotomy was 150-160 g/L, with the lowest value occurring two days after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 107 g/L. The ferritin level before erythrocytapheresis was 2 428.08 ng/mL and it declined gradually after theraphy, with the lowest value occurring two months after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 1 094 ng/mL. The ferritin level was 1 114 ng/mL two months following the first vein phlebotomy, however it increased to 1 472 ng/mL two months after the second vein phlebotomy. Conclusion: RCE/TPE may alleviate protoporphyrin liver disease and help patients with bridging liver transplantation before EPP developments to ESLD. For HH patients with significantly elevated ferritin levels, erythrocytapheresis reduces serum ferritin more quickly and maintains its level longer relative to phlebotomy.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of acupuncture-moxibustion on idiopathic facial palsy (IFP) at acute phase and recovery phase. METHODS: According to whether received acupuncture-moxibustion at acute phase or not, 198 IFP patients were divided into an early-phase intervention group (118 cases) and a non-early-phase intervention group (80 cases). With the propensity score matching employed, 70 cases were included in each group. On the basis of the conventional treatment of western medicine, acupuncture-moxibustion was supplemented in the two groups. In the early-phase intervention group, acupuncture-moxibustion was delivered at the acute phase (duration of illness≤7 days); in the non-early-phase intervention group, acupuncture-moxibustion was operated at the recovery phase (duration of illness>7 days). At the acute phase, warm needling was performed at Yifeng (TE17), Xiaguan (ST7), Hegu (LI4) and Zusanli (ST36) on the affected side; and at the recovery phase, electroacupuncture was delivered at Cuanzhu (BL2), Sizhukong (TE23) and Yangbai (GB14), etc. on the affected side, with the disperse-dense wave and 2 Hz/100 Hz of frequency. The intervention was operated for 30 min each time, once every two days, three treatments weekly and for 4 weeks. Before treatment, 1 week and 4 weeks of treatment, the House-Brackmann (H-B) facial nerve function grade, the score of Sunnybrook facial nerve function, and the score of facial disability index (FDI) were compared between the two groups. The clinical effect in 1 and 4 weeks of treatment and safety were evaluated. RESULTS: In 1 and 4 weeks of treatment, the H-B grade was improved when compared with that before treatment in each group (P<0.05), and in 4 weeks of treatment, H-B grade in the early-phase intervention group was superior to that of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). In 1 and 4 weeks of treatment, Sunnybrook scores and the scores of physical function of FDI were elevated in comparison with those before treatment in the two groups (P<0.05); and in 4 weeks of treatment, the elevation of these two indexes in the early-phase intervention group was greater than that of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). In 4 weeks of treatment, the scores of social function in FDI were reduced when compared with those before treatment in the two groups (P<0.05). In 4 weeks of treatment, the total effective rate (97.1%, 68/70) in the early-phase intervention group was higher than that (87.1%, 61/70) of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events between the two groups (P>0.05). CONCLUSION Acupuncture-moxibustion therapy starting at the acute phase is more beneficial to the functional recovery of the impaired facial nerve than at the recovery phase in the IFP patients.
Humans ; Female ; Male ; Acupuncture Therapy ; Moxibustion ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; Acupuncture Points ; Treatment Outcome ; Facial Paralysis/therapy* ; Cohort Studies ; Aged ; Bell Palsy/therapy* ; Adolescent

Objective To analyze risk factors for sleep disorders in patients with chronic heart failure(CHF)and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods Using simple random sampling,306 hospital-ized CHF patients meeting inclusion criteria were enrolled from four Grade A tertiary hospitals in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region(two in Nanning,one each in Yulin and Guilin)between March 2023 and March 2024.LASSO regression analysis was initially employed for variable screening,followed by logistic regression to identify predictive variables for constructing the nomogram model.Model validation and performance evalua-tion were conducted using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,and clinical decision curves,with internal validation performed through Bootstrap resampling(1 000 iterations).Results The incidence of sleep disorders among the 306 patients was 57.5%(176/306).Logistic regression analysis identified eight independent risk factors for sleep disorders in CHF patients(P＜0.05):age,education level,monthly house-hold income per capita,NYHA cardiac function classification,number of comorbidities,triglyceride levels,ano-rexia,and anxiety.The model demonstrated good discrimination for the AUC of 0.91(95%CI:0.77-0.88)and calibration consistency.Conclusion The prediction model established in this study shows good predictive performance,serving as a valuable reference for healthcare providers to early identify sleep disorders and im-plement preventive care strategies in patients with CHF.

Objective:To develop the Suicide Outcomes Scale for Undergraduates with Suicidal Ideation(SO-SUSI)and test its validity and reliability.Methods:Based on semi-structured interview,literature review and expert discussion,main aspects and indicator system were defined.The initial version of SOSUSI was formed,and items were either modified from existing scales targeting the relevant constructs,or compiled according to previous inter-view results.A total of 607 undergraduates with suicidal ideation were enrolled.The sample was randomly divided in half,one half(n=317)was used for item analysis and exploratory factor analysis,and another half(n=290)for confirmatory factor analysis.All data were used for reliability analysis.The Self-rating Depression Scale(SDS)and Suicidal Intent(SI)were used for criterion validity.Results:The SOSUSI included 39 items in 4 dimensions(nega-tive reinforcement of suicide,negative consequences of suicide,loss of suicide,and positive reinforcement of sui-cide)which explained 50.10％of the total variance.Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the four-factor struc-ture model fitted well(x2/df=3.27,CFI=0.92,TLI=0.91,IFI=0.92,SRMR=0.09).The scores of negative re-inforcement and positive reinforcement of suicide were positively correlated with the SDS and SI scores(ICC=0.15-0.33,Ps＜0.05),while the scores of negative consequences and loss of suicide were negatively correlated with the SI scores(ICC=-0.42--0.56,Ps＜0.05).The Cronbach's α coefficients of each dimension ranged from 0.79 to 0.91.Conclusion:The Suicide Outcomes Scale for Undergraduates with Suicidal Ideation(SOSUSI)has good validity and internal consistency reliability.

Objective To investigate the feasibility of AccuLearning system for the auto-segmentation of target areas and organs-at-risk(OAR)for total marrow and lymphoid irradiation(TMLI)in children.Methods Thirty pediatric patients who underwent TMLI since 2018 to 2022 were selected.The patients were immobilized in the supine position,and their CT images were acquired on the Philips Brilliance Big Bore CT scanner.After the target areas and OAR were manually delineated and modified,the CT images and manually delineated contours were imported into AccuLearning system for training,validation,and testing of the auto-segmentation model.The auto-segmentation results in 6 TMLI patients in the test set were evaluated in terms of Dice similarity coefficient(DSC),95%Hausdorff distance and average surface distance.Results On the test set with 6 cases,except for the lens that was difficult to be delineated automatically,the DSC values was above 0.70 for all other target areas and OAR,with only one patient having a DSC value of 0.59 for the stomach.The average DSC value for the stomach in all 6 patients was 0.76,and the average DSC values for the other organs were above 0.80.Conclusion The target areas and OAR automatically delineated with the model can meet the requirements of clinical planning after simple modifications.

Objective:To report the results of national surveillance on the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profile of clinical Gram-negative bacteria isolates from bloodstream infections in China in 2022.Methods:The clinical isolates of Gram-negative bacteria from blood cultures in member hospitals of national bloodstream infection Bacterial Resistant Investigation Collaborative System（BRICS）were collected during January 2022 to December 2022. Antibiotic susceptibility tests were conducted by agar dilution or broth dilution methods recommended by Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute（CLSI）. WHONET 5.6 and SPSS 25.0 software were used to analyze the data.Results:During the study period，9 035 strains of Gram-negative bacteria were collected from 51 hospitals，of which 7 895（87.4%）were Enterobacteriaceae and 1 140（12.6%）were non-fermenting bacteria. The top 5 bacterial species were Escherichia coli（ n=4 510，49.9%）， Klebsiella pneumoniae（ n=2 340，25.9%）， Pseudomonas aeruginosa（ n=534，5.9%）， Acinetobacter baumannii complex（ n=405，4.5%）and Enterobacter cloacae（ n=327，3.6%）. The ESBLs-producing rates in Escherichia coli， Klebsiella pneumoniae and Proteus spp. were 47.1%（2 095/4 452），21.0%（427/2 033）and 41.1%（58/141），respectively. The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli（CREC）and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae（CRKP）were 1.3%（58/4 510）and 13.1%（307/2 340）；62.1%（36/58）and 9.8%（30/307）of CREC and CRKP were resistant to ceftazidime/avibactam combination，respectively. The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii（CRAB）complex was 59.5%（241/405），while less than 5% of Acinetobacter baumannii complex was resistant to tigecycline and polymyxin B. The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa（CRPA）was 18.4%（98/534）. There were differences in the composition ratio of Gram-negative bacteria in bloodstream infections and the prevalence of main Gram-negative bacteria resistance among different regions，with statistically significant differences in the prevalence of CRKP and CRPA（ χ2=20.489 and 20.252， P<0.001）. The prevalence of CREC，CRKP，CRPA，CRAB，ESBLs-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae were higher in provinicial hospitals than those in municipal hospitals（ χ2=11.953，81.183，10.404，5.915，12.415 and 6.459， P<0.01 or <0.05），while the prevalence of CRPA was higher in economically developed regions（per capita GDP ≥ 92 059 Yuan）than that in economically less-developed regions（per capita GDP <92 059 Yuan）（ χ2=6.240， P=0.012）. Conclusions:The proportion of Gram-negative bacteria in bloodstream infections shows an increasing trend，and Escherichia coli is ranked in the top，while the trend of CRKP decreases continuously with time. Decreasing trends are noted in ESBLs-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. Low prevalence of carbapenem resistance in Escherichia coli and high prevalence in CRAB complex have been observed. The composition ratio and antibacterial spectrum of bloodstream infections in different regions of China are slightly different，and the proportion of main drug resistant bacteria in provincial hospitals is higher than those in municipal hospitals.

The incidence rate of drug-induced liver injury （DILI） is increasing year by year with unknown mechanisms， and the treatment methods for DILI mainly include drugs， liver support systems， and liver transplantation， all of which have certain limitations. Therefore， the search for safer and more effective treatment methods has become a research hotspot at present. Studies have shown that mesenchymal stem cells and their exosomes can alleviate liver injury by reducing liver inflammation， promoting hepatocyte proliferation and regeneration， inhibiting the apoptosis of hepatocytes， improving oxidative stress， and regulating immunity. This article briefly reviews the role of mesenchymal stem cells and their exosomes in the treatment of DILI， so as to provide a reference for further research.