1.Predictive nomogram for central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma based on CT-clinical data
Rui FAN ; Xingyun HE ; Junze DU ; Linli CHEN
Journal of Army Medical University 2025;47(18):2245-2253
Objective To investigate the predictive value of a nomogram for central lymph node metastasis(CLNM)in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma(PTMC)based on CT features combined with clinical factors.Methods A case-control study was conducted on 256 pathologically confirmed PTMC patients from 2 tertiary hospitals from January 2022 to November 2024.All participants underwent contrast-enhanced neck CT scanning within 2 weeks before surgery and received central lymph node dissection.The 201 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University were randomized into a training set(n=140)and an internal validation set(n=61)in a 7∶3 ratio.The 55 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were all assigned into an external validation set.Their clinical data and CT features were collected.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify independent predictive factors for CLNM,and then a nomogram model was constructed.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis(area under the curve,AUC),calibration curve,and decision curve analysis(DCA)were performed to evaluate the model performance,discrimination and clinical utility.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified 4 independent CLNM predictors(P<0.05),that is,male(OR=5.991,95%CI:2.209~18.350),tumor size≥0.82 cm(OR=18.880,95%CI:1.803~229.500),capsular involvement(OR=9.805,95%CI:4.015~26.340),and CT-diagnosed lymph node positivity(OR=2.872;95%CI:1.176~7.232).The nomogram achieved an AUC value of 0.859(95%CI:0.796~0.922),0.786(95%CI:0.671~0.901),and 0.783(95%CI:0.648~0.917)in the training and internal and external validation sets,respectively.Calibration curves demonstrated high consistency between predicted and observed probabilities(Hosmer-Lemeshow P>0.05).DCA confirmed net clinical benefits for CLNM before surgical treatment with a threshold probability range of 0.18~0.80.Conclusion Based on sex,tumor size,capsular involvement,and CT-diagnosed lymph node metastasis,our nomogram model effectively predicts CLNM risk in PTMC patients.It can be used as a quantitative tool for personalized surgical planning and shows high clinical applicability.
2.Analyses of the influence of diabetes-related deaths on the probability of premature mortality and life expectancy in Minhang District, Shanghai from 2004 to 2023
Shuili XUAN ; Jingyi NI ; Jiaqi GUO ; Wei LIU ; Lijing CHEN ; Yibin ZHOU ; Linli CHEN ; Huilin XU
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(9):752-758
ObjectiveTo analyze the impact of diabetes-related deaths on the probability of premature mortality and life expectancy in Minhang District of Shanghai from 2004 to 2023, and to provide reference data for the optimization of targeted prevention and control strategies. MethodsAll death cases involving diabetes among the registered residents of Minhang District from 2004 to 2023 were collected. The probability of premature mortality and life expectancy was computed using the abridged life table method. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated with Joinpoint 4.9.0.0. The Arriaga decomposition method was employed for statistical analyses of the influence of cause-specific and age-specific mortality related to diabetes on life expectancy. ResultsThe total number of diabetes-related mortality, crude mortality, and standardized mortality for both males and females in Minhang District from 2004 to 2023 exhibited an increasing trend (P<0.001). The primary causes of death among diabetes-related cases were cardiovascular disease (37.68%), diabetes mellitus (31.95%), and malignant tumor (17.80%). From 2004 to 2023, probability of premature mortality to diabetes-related diseases demonstrated a rising trend (P<0.001), contrasting with the declining trend observed in the overall population (P=0.001). Males showed a significant upward trajectory (P<0.001), while females displayed a stable pattern. Among the diseases exerting considerable influence, cardiovascular disease and malignant tumor revealed a marked increase over time (P<0.001), whereas diabetes mellitus maintained a stable trend; both factors negatively impacted the reduction in probability of premature mortality. From 2004 to 2023, diabetes-related mortality reduced life expectancy among residents by an average of 1.22 years (-49.89%), indicating a negative impact; the reduction was 1.41 years in males and 0.90 years in females. The age groups exhibiting greater negative contributions differed by genders, namely males aged 50‒54 years and females aged 70‒74 years. Cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and malignant tumor contributed significantly to this decline (-0.46 years, -0.42 years, -0.20 years, respectively), with male experiencing higher negative contributions than females. ConclusionIn Minhang District, the rising mortality associated with diabetes-related diseases negatively impact both the reduction of the probability of premature mortality and the increase in life expectancy. This trend is primarily attributed to the rapid escalation of mortality and younger age demographic of male residents, which warrants significant attention. It is recommended that, based on the enhancement of case management, efforts should be directed towards the targeted prevention and control of risk factors and high-risk populations.
3.A survey study on the influence of personality trait on depressive symptom and obesity in patients before bariatric and metabolic surgery
Haonan ZHOU ; Xiaomei CHEN ; Bingji MA ; Zhihong SU ; Yuanmin GAO ; Linli SUN
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(8):1053-1060
Objective:To conduct a survey on the influence of personality trait on depres-sive symptom and obesity in patients before bariatric and metabolic surgery.Methods:The retros-pective cross-sectional investigation study was conducted. Patients who underwent bariatric and metabolic surgery in The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University and The First Affiliated Hospital of Ji′nan University from January 1 to June 1,2024 were recruited. The survey was conducted in electronic format using the general information survey questionnaire, the patient health question-naire-9 (PHQ-9), and the Chinese big five personality inventory brief version (CBF-PI-B). Observa-tion indicators: (1) results of the questionnaire; (2) general data of patient; (3) personality trait scores for patient with different subtypes of obesity; (4) depression symptom scores for patient with different subtypes of obesity; (5) correlation analysis for patient personality trait, depressive symptom and body mass index (BMI). Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the independent t test, and one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison among multiple groups. LSD test was used for pairwise comparison. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution among multiple groups was conducted using the Kruskal-Wallis H test, and Dunn Bonferroni test was used for pairwise comparison. The Spearman correlation analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were used for correlation analysis, and the mediation effect analysis was conducted using the Process 4.0 model and the Bootstrap test. Results:(1)Results of the questionnaire. A total of 146 questionnaires were distributed and collected, including 83 questionnaires from The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University and 63 questionnaires from The First Affiliated Hospital of Ji′nan University. Of 146 questionnaires, 137 questionnaires were valid, yielding an effective response rate of 93.836%(137/146). (2)General data of patient. Of the 137 patients who completed valid questionnaires, 52 were male with BMI of (41±5)kg/m 2, 85 were female with BMI of (38±6)kg/m 2, showing a significant difference between them ( t=2.586, P<0.05). There were 40 patients aged ≤25 years, with BMI of (42±5)kg/m 2, 28 patients aged 26-30 years, with BMI of (39±5)kg/m 2, 49 patients aged 31-40 years, with BMI of (38±6)kg/m 2, 14 patients aged 41-50 years, with BMI of (38±7)kg/m 2, 6 patients aged >50 years, with BMI of (37±3)kg/m 2. There were significant differences in BMI of patients of different age groups ( F=2.697, P<0.05). (3)Persona-lity trait scores for patient with different subtypes of obesity. Of the 137 patients who completed valid questionnaires, there were 15 patients of mild obesity, with personality trait neuroticism score of 19.0(14.0,24.0), personality trait strictness score of 32.5±5.2, personality trait extroversion score of 30.0(24.0,40.0), 36 patients of moderate obesity, with personality trait neuro-ticism score of 26.5(22.3,28.8), personality trait strictness score of 32.6±5.9, personality trait extro-version score of 34.0(26.3,39.0), 81 patients of severe obesity, with personality trait neuroticism score of 35.0(29.5,41.0), personality trait strictness score of 26.8±7.4, personality trait extroversion score of 28.0(20.5,35.0), 5 patients of extreme obesity, with personality trait neuroticism score of 28.0(26.5,44.0), personality trait strictness score of 19.6±3.4, personality trait extroversion score of 22.0(18.5,25.0). There were significant differences in personality trait neuroticism, strictness and extroversion among patients of different subtypes of obesity ( H=50.316, F=10.774, H=14.446, P<0.05). (4)Depression symptom scores for patient with different subtypes of obesity. Of the 137 pati-ents who completed valid questionnaires, the depressive symptom score were 4.0(2.0,9.0) for 15 pati-ents of mild obesity, 5.0(3.0,7.0) for 36 patients of moderate obesity, 13.0(8.5,17.0) for 81 patients of severe obesity, and 18.0(9.5,22.0) for 5 patients of extreme obesity, respectively, showing a significant difference among them ( H=50.129, P<0.05). (5) Correlation analysis for patient personality trait, depressive symptom and BMI. Results of Spearman correlation analysis showed that personality trait neuroticism were positively correlated with depressive symptoms and BMI ( r=0.780, 0.557, P<0.05), personality trait strictness was negatively correlated with depressive symptoms ( r=-0.523, P<0.05), personality trait extroversion were negatively correlated with depressive symptoms and BMI ( r=-0.448, -0.323, P<0.05), and depressive symptoms was positively correlated with BMI ( r=0.568, P<0.05). Results of Pearson correlation analysis showed that personality trait strictness was negatively correlated with BMI ( r=-0.489, P<0.05). Conclusion:Preoperative personality trait of patients undergoing bariatric and metabolic surgery can influence their depressive symptom and BMI.
4.Quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of yttrium aluminum garnet laser vitreolysis for symptomatic vitreous opacities
Canfeng HUANG ; Linli WANG ; Jiafeng NING ; Run GAN ; Xiaohe YAN ; Qingshan CHEN
Chinese Journal of Experimental Ophthalmology 2025;43(1):47-51
Objective:To evaluate the effectiveness of yttrium aluminum garnet (Nd∶YAG) laser vitreolysis in the treatment of symptomatic vitreous opacity.Methods:An observational case series study was performed.Forty-four eyes of 44 patients diagnosed as physiological vitreous opacity in Shenzhen Eye Hospital from June 2021 to September 2022 and treated with Nd∶YAG laser vitreolysis were enrolled.Before treatment and 2 months after last treatment, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) evaluated with standard logarithmic visual acuity chart, floater areas calculated through infrared fundus photography, and objective scattering index (OSI) obtained by the Optical Quality Analysis System (OQAS) were recorded.The occurrence of complications during the follow-up period was recorded.The differences in each indicator were compared, and a simple linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between floater area and OSI.This study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of Shenzhen Eye Hospital (No.2021-6-3).Patients were informed of the study methods and purposes.Written informed consent was obtained from each subject.Results:There was no significant difference in BCVA before and after Nd∶YAG laser vitreolysis ( t=-0.478, P=0.635).The floater area before laser treatment was (3.043±1.942)mm 2, which was significantly larger than (1.074±0.735)mm 2 after laser treatment ( t=0.769, P<0.001).The OSI before laser treatment was 1.976±0.975, which was significantly greater than 1.560±0.796 after laser treatment ( t=0.730, P<0.001).The results of linear regression analysis showed that the OSI=1.45+ 0.16× floater area ( F=5.681, P=0.020).No patient had visual acuity loss or intraocular pressure increase and no traumatic cataract or retinal damage occurred. Conclusions:After laser treatment, the floater area decreased, the OSI decreased, and the visual quality of patients improved.The OSI from OQAS Ⅱ and floater area can be used as quantitative evaluation indicators to objectively evaluate the effectiveness of Nd∶YAG laser vitreolysis.
5.Quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of yttrium aluminum garnet laser vitreolysis for symptomatic vitreous opacities
Canfeng HUANG ; Linli WANG ; Jiafeng NING ; Run GAN ; Xiaohe YAN ; Qingshan CHEN
Chinese Journal of Experimental Ophthalmology 2025;43(1):47-51
Objective:To evaluate the effectiveness of yttrium aluminum garnet (Nd∶YAG) laser vitreolysis in the treatment of symptomatic vitreous opacity.Methods:An observational case series study was performed.Forty-four eyes of 44 patients diagnosed as physiological vitreous opacity in Shenzhen Eye Hospital from June 2021 to September 2022 and treated with Nd∶YAG laser vitreolysis were enrolled.Before treatment and 2 months after last treatment, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) evaluated with standard logarithmic visual acuity chart, floater areas calculated through infrared fundus photography, and objective scattering index (OSI) obtained by the Optical Quality Analysis System (OQAS) were recorded.The occurrence of complications during the follow-up period was recorded.The differences in each indicator were compared, and a simple linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between floater area and OSI.This study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of Shenzhen Eye Hospital (No.2021-6-3).Patients were informed of the study methods and purposes.Written informed consent was obtained from each subject.Results:There was no significant difference in BCVA before and after Nd∶YAG laser vitreolysis ( t=-0.478, P=0.635).The floater area before laser treatment was (3.043±1.942)mm 2, which was significantly larger than (1.074±0.735)mm 2 after laser treatment ( t=0.769, P<0.001).The OSI before laser treatment was 1.976±0.975, which was significantly greater than 1.560±0.796 after laser treatment ( t=0.730, P<0.001).The results of linear regression analysis showed that the OSI=1.45+ 0.16× floater area ( F=5.681, P=0.020).No patient had visual acuity loss or intraocular pressure increase and no traumatic cataract or retinal damage occurred. Conclusions:After laser treatment, the floater area decreased, the OSI decreased, and the visual quality of patients improved.The OSI from OQAS Ⅱ and floater area can be used as quantitative evaluation indicators to objectively evaluate the effectiveness of Nd∶YAG laser vitreolysis.
6.A survey study on the influence of personality trait on depressive symptom and obesity in patients before bariatric and metabolic surgery
Haonan ZHOU ; Xiaomei CHEN ; Bingji MA ; Zhihong SU ; Yuanmin GAO ; Linli SUN
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(8):1053-1060
Objective:To conduct a survey on the influence of personality trait on depres-sive symptom and obesity in patients before bariatric and metabolic surgery.Methods:The retros-pective cross-sectional investigation study was conducted. Patients who underwent bariatric and metabolic surgery in The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University and The First Affiliated Hospital of Ji′nan University from January 1 to June 1,2024 were recruited. The survey was conducted in electronic format using the general information survey questionnaire, the patient health question-naire-9 (PHQ-9), and the Chinese big five personality inventory brief version (CBF-PI-B). Observa-tion indicators: (1) results of the questionnaire; (2) general data of patient; (3) personality trait scores for patient with different subtypes of obesity; (4) depression symptom scores for patient with different subtypes of obesity; (5) correlation analysis for patient personality trait, depressive symptom and body mass index (BMI). Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the independent t test, and one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison among multiple groups. LSD test was used for pairwise comparison. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution among multiple groups was conducted using the Kruskal-Wallis H test, and Dunn Bonferroni test was used for pairwise comparison. The Spearman correlation analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were used for correlation analysis, and the mediation effect analysis was conducted using the Process 4.0 model and the Bootstrap test. Results:(1)Results of the questionnaire. A total of 146 questionnaires were distributed and collected, including 83 questionnaires from The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University and 63 questionnaires from The First Affiliated Hospital of Ji′nan University. Of 146 questionnaires, 137 questionnaires were valid, yielding an effective response rate of 93.836%(137/146). (2)General data of patient. Of the 137 patients who completed valid questionnaires, 52 were male with BMI of (41±5)kg/m 2, 85 were female with BMI of (38±6)kg/m 2, showing a significant difference between them ( t=2.586, P<0.05). There were 40 patients aged ≤25 years, with BMI of (42±5)kg/m 2, 28 patients aged 26-30 years, with BMI of (39±5)kg/m 2, 49 patients aged 31-40 years, with BMI of (38±6)kg/m 2, 14 patients aged 41-50 years, with BMI of (38±7)kg/m 2, 6 patients aged >50 years, with BMI of (37±3)kg/m 2. There were significant differences in BMI of patients of different age groups ( F=2.697, P<0.05). (3)Persona-lity trait scores for patient with different subtypes of obesity. Of the 137 patients who completed valid questionnaires, there were 15 patients of mild obesity, with personality trait neuroticism score of 19.0(14.0,24.0), personality trait strictness score of 32.5±5.2, personality trait extroversion score of 30.0(24.0,40.0), 36 patients of moderate obesity, with personality trait neuro-ticism score of 26.5(22.3,28.8), personality trait strictness score of 32.6±5.9, personality trait extro-version score of 34.0(26.3,39.0), 81 patients of severe obesity, with personality trait neuroticism score of 35.0(29.5,41.0), personality trait strictness score of 26.8±7.4, personality trait extroversion score of 28.0(20.5,35.0), 5 patients of extreme obesity, with personality trait neuroticism score of 28.0(26.5,44.0), personality trait strictness score of 19.6±3.4, personality trait extroversion score of 22.0(18.5,25.0). There were significant differences in personality trait neuroticism, strictness and extroversion among patients of different subtypes of obesity ( H=50.316, F=10.774, H=14.446, P<0.05). (4)Depression symptom scores for patient with different subtypes of obesity. Of the 137 pati-ents who completed valid questionnaires, the depressive symptom score were 4.0(2.0,9.0) for 15 pati-ents of mild obesity, 5.0(3.0,7.0) for 36 patients of moderate obesity, 13.0(8.5,17.0) for 81 patients of severe obesity, and 18.0(9.5,22.0) for 5 patients of extreme obesity, respectively, showing a significant difference among them ( H=50.129, P<0.05). (5) Correlation analysis for patient personality trait, depressive symptom and BMI. Results of Spearman correlation analysis showed that personality trait neuroticism were positively correlated with depressive symptoms and BMI ( r=0.780, 0.557, P<0.05), personality trait strictness was negatively correlated with depressive symptoms ( r=-0.523, P<0.05), personality trait extroversion were negatively correlated with depressive symptoms and BMI ( r=-0.448, -0.323, P<0.05), and depressive symptoms was positively correlated with BMI ( r=0.568, P<0.05). Results of Pearson correlation analysis showed that personality trait strictness was negatively correlated with BMI ( r=-0.489, P<0.05). Conclusion:Preoperative personality trait of patients undergoing bariatric and metabolic surgery can influence their depressive symptom and BMI.
7.Analysis of Clinical Trial Institutions in Chongqing Area
Liya CAO ; Linli XIE ; Jiangchuan XIE ; Xinmei PAN ; Pan MA ; Xin ZHANG ; Yongchuan CHEN
Chinese Journal of Modern Applied Pharmacy 2024;41(9):1275-1280
OBJECTIVE
To investigate the current situation of clinical trial institutions in Chongqing after the recording system of clinical trial institutions, and to put forward suggestions.
METHODS
A total of 34 clinical trial institutions in Chongqing were selected as the research objects. The research contents mainly included the basic situation of the institutions, staffing, hardware and software construction, project operation and work difficulties, etc. Combined with the research results, suggestions were put forward for the difficulties of the new and old institutions in the operation of clinical trial institutions.
RESULTS
A total of 29 questionnaires were collected and 29 were valid. The release of clinical trial resources in Chongqing were not sufficient and uniform, there were problems such as insufficient incentive policies, lack of information platform construction, and the number and professional degrees of practitioners need to be improved. The new institutions had certain advantages in project load, office space and willingness to undertake, but it was restricted by principle investigator qualification, project experience and institutional reputation.
CONCLUSION
It is suggested to clarify the incentive mechanism, enhance the enthusiasm of clinical trials and establish a standardized training mechanism for clinical trial professionals. Make full use of the information platform to improve the efficiency of clinical trials, build a regional information platform to share information and resources, and accelerate the development of regional clinical trials.
8.Common problems and suggestions of biological sample management in drug clinical trials
Jiangchuan XIE ; Linli XIE ; Pan MA ; Xinmei PAN ; Liya CAO ; Xin ZHANG ; Yongchuan CHEN
China Pharmacy 2024;35(5):524-528
OBJECTIVE To provide a reference for improving the relevant standard operating procedures (SOP) and biological sample management in drug clinical trials. METHODS According to Good Clinical Practice, Data On-site Verification Points of Drugs Clinical Trials, Human Genetic Resources Management Regulations Implementation Rules, Qualification Examination Rules of Drug Clinical Trials Institution, based on the experience of managing clinical trials programs, the irregularities in biological samples management were analyzed by using statistical quality control tables and protocol deviation (PD) reported by sponsors, in the context of the quality control of drug clinical trials projects managed by the author from July 2016 to May 2023. The precautions in various aspects of sample management were put forward. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS A total of 101 biospecimen- related irregularities were found in the 60 drug clinical trials projects. Biological sample collection, preservation, and handling were the aspects with the highest incidence of irregular operations in biological sample management, accounting for 37.62%, 25.74%, and 21.78%, respectively. Regulating the management of biospecimens requires multiple efforts. The institutional office and the ethics committee carefully reviewed the consistency of the protocols, informed consent, and genetic office application involving biospecimen collection and handling when the project was initiated. Institutional office quality controllers should pay attention to the attendance and training of authorized personnel at project initiation. The principal investigator, research nurse, collector, handler, transporter, relevant personnel of the central laboratory, and institutional office quality controller have their roles during the project implementation phase. On this basis, all parties involved in the management of biological samples should do a good job of effective communication, find problems and report them in time, and conduct special studies on key aspects.
9.Construction of a predictive model for the prognosis of elderly patients with advanced lung adenocarcinoma after surgery based on the SEER database
Linli CHEN ; Arun ZHANG ; Wenlu BU ; Chuanbo LIU
Cancer Research and Clinic 2024;36(1):32-40
Objective:To construct and analyze the visual nomogram predictive model for the prognosis of elderly advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients after surgery based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.Methods:SEER*Stat8.4.0.1 software was used to screen out the data from 17 register in SEER database between 2000 and 2019, and finally 4 453 lung adenocarcinoma patients aged ≥ 65 years who underwent surgical treatment and were diagnosed as stage Ⅲ and Ⅳ according to the 7th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging criteria were enrolled. The data were randomly divided into the training set (3 117 cases) and the validation set (1 336 cases) in a 7:3 ratio; the epidemilogical data and clinicopathological characteristics of the two groups were compared. LASSO regression was used for data dimensionality reduction to select the best predictors from the prognostic factors of patients. Cox proportional risk model was used to perform univariate and multivariate analyses of the screened variables, and based on R software rms package and the prognostic independent risk factors, the nomogram was constructed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates of the patients. The validation set was validated by using Bootstrap method with 1 000 equal repeated samples with playback, and the accuracy of the nomogram model was verified by using the C-index, receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves.Results:There were no statistically significant differences in age, gender, race, tumor location, Grade grading, surgery methods, the number of lymph node dissection, radiotherapy, tumor diameter, tumor metastasis, marriage, living condition, TNM staging, radiochemotherapy of training set and validation set (all P > 0.05). In training set, 18 variables were included into LASSO regression analysis and were performed with dimensionality reduction; ultimately, 11 optimal predictive variables were selected, including age ≥ 85 years ( HR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.803-3.037, P < 0.01), male ( HR = 1.326, 95% CI: 1.228-1.432, P < 0.01), Grade grading Ⅲ-Ⅳ ( HR = 1.333, 95% CI: 0.844-2.105, P < 0.01), undissected lymph nodes ( HR = 2.261, 95% CI: 2.023-2.527, P < 0.01), tumor diameter ≥3.7 cm ( HR = 1.445, 95% CI: 1.333-1.566, P < 0.01), bone metastasis ( HR = 1.535, 95% CI: 1.294-1.819, P < 0.01), brain metastasis ( HR = 1.308, 95% CI: 1.117-1.532, P < 0.01), lung metastasis ( HR = 1.229, 95% CI: 1.056-1.431, P = 0.01), living in rural areas ( HR = 1.215, 95% CI: 1.084-1.363, P < 0.01), TNM staging Ⅳ ( HR = 1.155, 95% CI: 1.044-1.278, P = 0.01), postoperative radiotherapy ( HR = 1.148, 95% CI: 1.054-1.250, P < 0.01); lung adenocarcinoma patients with the above 11 factors had worse prognosis. Based on the variables, the nomogram predictive model was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS rates of elderly advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients. Bootstrap method was used for repeated sampling for 1 000 times to verify the modeling effect of nomogram. In the model group, C-index was 0.654 (95% CI: 0.641-0.668), 0.666 (95% CI: 0.646-0.685), respectively in the training set and the validation set. The nomogram was drawn to predict ROC curves of 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS rates for elderly advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients after operation in the training set and validation set; the area under the curve (AUC) of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS rates was 0.730 (95% CI: 0.708-0.754) and 0.689 (95% CI: 0.672-0.710), 0.687 (95% CI: 0.668-0.711) and 0.731 (95% CI: 0.697-0.765), 0.712 (95% CI:0.684-0.740) and 0.714 (95% CI: 0.683-0.745), respectively in the training and validation sets. The calibration curve showed a high consistency between the predicted probability of the model and the actual probability. Conclusions:The nomogram model constructed by optimal predictive variables for predicting the prognosis of elderly advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients after surgery may be a convenient tool for survival prediction of these patients.
10.Impact of ambient ozone exposure on death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Minhang District, Shanghai
Jie LIU ; Jun HUANG ; Xiaowen XU ; Lingyan ZHEN ; Linli CHEN ; Shengjie YING ; Xihao DU
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2024;41(5):467-473
Background Ozone (O3) pollution has gradually become a primary problem of air pollution in recent years. Conducting epidemiological studies on the correlation between O3 concentration variation and risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases can provide reference data for O3 risk assessment and related policy making. Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effects of O3 exposure on mortalities of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among residents in Minhang District, Shanghai. Methods Data of mortalities of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, air pollutants, and meteorological factors in Minhang District of Shanghai from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021 were collected. Associations between O3 concentration and the mortalities due to total cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, coronary heart disease, and stroke were analyzed by generalized additive models with a quasi Poisson distribution with different lag patterns, such as current day effect (lag0), single-day lag effects (lag1-lag3), and cumulative lag effects (lag01-lag03). The subgroup analyses of age, sex, and season were conducted. Furthermore, temperature was divided into low, middle, and high levels based on the 25th percentile (P25) and the 75th percentile (P75) to perform hierarchical analyses. Increased excess risks (ER) of death from target diseases caused by a 10 µg·m−3 increase in daily maximum 8 h concentration of O3 (O3-8 h) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to indicate the effects of O3. Results The associations between O3 and the risks of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were statistically significant at lag2, lag3, lag02, and lag03 (P<0.05), with the greatest effect size observed at lag03. The ER values of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in general population, male residents, and people aged 65 years and older, from coronary heart disease in male residents, and from stroke in general population increased by 1.02% (95%CI: 0.36%, 1.69%), 1.40% (95%CI: 0.47%, 2.34%), 0.87% (95%CI: 0.19%, 1.55%), 1.96% (95%CI: 0.49%, 3.44%), and 1.02% (95%CI: 0.07%, 1.98%) for a 10 µg·m−3 increase in O3-8 h concentration at lag03, respectively. During the warm season (from April 1 to September 30), the ER values of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and coronary heart disease per 10 µg·m−3 increase in O3 were 1.18% (95%CI: 0.33%, 3.33%) and 2.69% (95%CI: 0.39%, 5.03%), while the O3 effect was only statistically significant on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases during the cold season (from October 1 to March 31 next year). At the middle and high temperature levels, the ER values of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases increased by 1.63% (95%CI: 0.32%, 2.96%) and 1.14% (95%CI: 0.17%, 2.12%) respectively. The two-pollutant models showed similar results after including other pollutants (carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, fine particulate matter, or inhalable particulate matter). Conclusion Ambient O3 pollution may increase the mortality risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, coronary heart disease, and stroke in Minhang District of Shanghai.


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