Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Stroke is one of the leading causes of disability and mortality worldwide. Research into its mechanisms and the development of therapeutic strategies heavily rely on animal models that accurately replicate the pathological features of human disease. An ideal animal model for stroke should not only reproduce the neurological deficits and pathological changes observed in clinical patients but also demonstrate good reproducibility and translational value. This review focuses on the preparation and evaluation methods of ischemic stroke animal models. Firstly, it elaborates on the selection criteria, advantages, and disadvantages of experimental animals, including rodents (rats, mice) and non-rodents (non-human primates, miniature pigs, rabbits, zebrafish). Secondly, it provides a detailed overview of the modeling principles, key procedures, and application scopes for ischemic stroke models and hemorrhagic stroke models. Furthermore, the review summarizes advances in the applications of emerging technologies—including gene editing [e.g., clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9) gene editing], multimodal imaging (e.g., two-photon microscopy, photoacoustic imaging), artificial intelligence, optogenetics, 3D bioprinting, organoid models, and multi-omics–in model optimization, precise assessment, and mechanistic investigation. Finally, based on a systematic analysis of relevant domestic and international literature from 2019 to 2024, this review discusses model selection strategies based on research objectives, a multidimensional evaluation system encompassing behavioral, imaging, and molecular pathological assessments, and envisions future directions involving technological integration to achieve model precision and individualization. This article aims to provide a comprehensive methodological reference to help researchers select appropriate animal models of stroke according to specific scientific questions.

OBJECTIVE To systematically evaluate the effects of oral non-peptidic thrombopoietin receptor agonists （TPO-RAs） on hepatic enzyme in adult patients with immune thrombocytopenia. METHODS A comprehensive literature search was conducted in PubMed， Web of Science， CNKI， Wanfang database and the Chinese Medical Association Journal Full-Text Database to collect randomized controlled trials （RCTs） comparing oral non-peptidic TPO-RAs （intervention group） with placebo or conventional therapy （control group）. All databases were searched from their inception to June 2025. After literature screening， data extraction and quality assessment of the included studies， meta-analysis was conducted using RevMan 5.4.1 software. RESULTS Twelve RCTs comprising 1 388 patients were included， with 971 in the intervention group and 417 in the control group. Meta-analysis results showed that there were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of the incidence of hepatic enzyme elevation[OR＝1.24， 95%CI （0.77， 1.99）， P ＝0.37 ] ， the incidence of hepatic enzyme elevation in patients treated for ≥6 weeks[OR＝1.21， 95%CI （0.73， 1.99）， P ＝0.46 ] ， and the incidence of severe hepatic enzyme elevation[OR＝1.39， 95%CI（0.46， 4.20）， P ＝0.55 ] . Subgroup analysis showed that there were no significant differences in the incidence of hepatic enzyme elevation between the intervention group and control group among patients using eltrombopag[OR＝1.57，95%CI（0.85，2.87）， P ＝0.15 ] ， avatrombopag[OR＝0.88，95%CI （0.09，8.46）， P ＝0.91 ] ， and hetrombopag[OR＝1.04，95%CI（0.30，3.65）， P ＝0.95 ] ， respectively. CONCLUSIONS Oral non-peptidic TPO-RAs do not significantly increase the risk of hepatic enzyme elevation in adult patients with immune thrombocytopenia， and show an overall favorable hepatic safety profile.

Objective To introduce the causes of accidents and the diagnosis and treatment of two patients with radiation-induced skin injury admitted to our hospital in 2023, and to provide a reference for the clinical treatment of subsequent radiation-induced skin injury. Methods The clinical treatment process of two patients with acute skin injury caused by external radiation exposure were summarized and analyzed. Results The exposure history of the two patients was reconstructed, the flaw detection scenario was simulated, the biological dose and hand skin exposure dose were estimated, and the infrared thermal imaging device was used for dynamic monitoring. A comprehensive analysis was conducted based on clinical manifestations and other data. The diagnosis of “Xie” was excessive exposure combined with acute radiation-induced skin injury on both hands (Grade IV for the right hand palm, index finger, and middle finger and Grade II for the left hand little finger). The diagnosis of “Hao” was acute radiation-induced skin injury on both hands (Grade I). The two patients received different clinical treatment measures: “Xie” was treated with both local and systemic therapies, while “Hao” was mainly treated with systemic therapy. Conclusion After systematic and effective treatment, the radiation-induced skin injuries healed in both patients.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the actual construction and operation status of established and under-construction centralized （cloud） prescription review centers （shortened for “prescription review center”） of close-knit county-level medical consortium in a certain city， so as to provide reference for improving the construction quality of the prescription review center. METHODS An online questionnaire survey was conducted to collect the data from 51 established and under-construction prescription review center in the city， covering basic information， funding sources， talent management， system construction， review rule maintenance， prescription review practices， prescription evaluation， data utilization， and current challenges. The collected data were summarized and analyzed. RESULTS A total of 51 valid questionnaires were retrieved， covering 32 established and 19 under-construction prescription review center. Among the 32 established prescription review centers， the main funding sources for their construction came from government financial allocations， accounting for 56.25%. Only 25.00% of prescription review center had review pharmacists who fully met national qualification requirements， and just 55.00% updated more than 10 review rule entries per month on average. Outpatient prescription verification realized full coverage， but 37.50% of prescription review centers only supported rationality verification of single prescriptions， and 50.00% could not retrieve laboratory and examination results to assist in prescription review. Additionally， 40.62% of prescription review center had not regularly conducted prescription evaluations for primary care institutions. The data from prescription review center was mainly used to support medication monitoring. Among the 19 prescription review centers currently in the planning stage， 63.16% had no identified funding sources. CONCLUSIONS The operation and construction of prescription review center in the city face challenges， such as funding shortages， absence of collaborative incentive mechanisms， and insufficient manpower.It is suggested that the state should issue a unified standard for the construction of the prescription review center as soon as possible， and local health administrative departments should formulate supporting policies and clarify assessment indicators in combination with the actual situation of the region.

OBJECTIVE To optimize the simmering technology of Rheum palmatum from Menghe Medical School and compare the difference of chemical components before and after processing. METHODS Using appearance score， the contents of gallic acid， 5-hydroxymethylfurfural （5-HMF）， sennoside A+sennoside B， combined anthraquinone and free anthraquinone as indexes， analytic hierarchy process （AHP）-entropy weight method was used to calculate the comprehensive score of evaluation indicators； the orthogonal experiment was designed to optimize the processing technology of simmering R. palmatum with fire temperature， simmering time， paper layer number and paper wrapping time as factors； validation test was conducted. The changes in the contents of five anthraquinones （aloe-emodin， rhein， emodin， chrysophanol， physcion）， five anthraquinone glycosides （barbaloin， rheinoside， rhubarb glycoside， emodin glycoside， and emodin methyl ether glycoside）， two sennosides （sennoside A， sennoside B）， gallic acid and 5-HMF were compared between simmered R. palmatum prepared by optimized technology and R. palmatum. RESULTS The optimal processing conditions of R. palmatum was as follows: each 80 g R. palmatum was wrapped with a layer of wet paper for 0.5 h， simmered on high heat for 20 min and then simmered at 140 ℃， the total simmering time was 2.5 h. The average comprehensive score of 3 validation tests was 94.10 （RSD＜1.0%）. After simmering， the contents of five anthraquinones and two sennosides were decreased significantly， while those of 5 free anthraquinones and gallic acid were increased to different extents； a new component 5-HMF was formed. CONCLUSIONS This study successfully optimizes the simmering technology of R. palmatum. There is a significant difference in the chemical components before and after processing， which can explain that simmering technology slows down the relase of R. palmatum and beneficiate it.

Objective To explore the diagnostic value of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for cystic fibrosis (CF). Methods A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, and SinoMed databases up to August 7, 2024. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were selected for data extraction and quality assessment. The quality of included studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), and the risk of bias and applicability of included prediction model studies were assessed by the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Results A total of 10 studies were included, among which 5 studies only identified specific exhaled VOCs in CF patients, and another 5 developed 7 CF risk prediction models based on the identification of VOCs in CF. The included studies reported a total of 75 exhaled VOCs, most of which belonged to the categories of acylcarnitines, aldehydes, acids, and esters. Most models (n=6, 85.7%) only included exhaled VOCs as predictive factors, and only one model included factors other than VOCs, including forced expiratory flow at 75% of forced vital capacity (FEF75) and modified Medical Research Council scale for the assessment of dyspnea (mMRC). The accuracy of the models ranged from 77% to 100%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.771 to 0.988. None of the included studies provided information on the calibration of the models. The results of the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) showed that the overall bias risk of all predictive model studies was high, and the overall applicability was unclear. Conclusion The exhaled VOCs reported in the included studies showed significant heterogeneity, and more research is needed to explore specific compounds for CF. In addition, risk prediction models based on exhaled VOCs have certain value in the diagnosis of CF, but the overall bias risk is relatively high and needs further optimization from aspects such as model construction and validation.

AIM: To observe the changes of retinal nerve fiber layer(RNFL)thickness and radial peripheral capillary(RPC)density in patients with unilateral branch retinal vein occlusion(BRVO), and further analyze the correlation between RPC density and RNFL thickness.METHODS: Observational study. Totally 37 patients with unilateral BRVO diagnosed at the ophthalmology department of First Hospital of Qinhuangdao from October 2020 to January 2022 were selected, the 37 affected eyes were the unilateral BRVO group, and 37 fellow healthy eyes were the contralateral unaffected group, and 35 healthy individuals(35 right eyes were selected)without ocular diseases during the same period were selected as the normal control group. The best corrected visual acuity, intraocular pressure, anterior segment, fundus and optical coherence tomography angiography(OCTA)were examined in both eyes of all BRVO patients and healthy individuals. The central macular thickness(CMT), the RNFL thickness, and the optic disc-AV crossing distance(DAVD)were measured by built-in software of the OCTA equipment. The optimized U-net algorithm was used to eliminate the large blood vessels, and then the RPC density was calculated. The CMT, RNFL thickness and RPC density were compared among the three groups. And the correlations of the RPC density with the CMT, RNFL thickness, and the DAVD were investigated.RESULTS: Compared with the contralateral unaffected group and the normal control group, the CMT and the RNFL thickness were significantly thickened in the unilateral BRVO group(all P<0.05); there were no statistical differences in the CMT and the RNFL thickness between the contralateral unaffected group and the normal control group(all P>0.05). The RPC density in the unilateral BRVO group increased compared with the contralateral unaffected group and decreased compared with the normal control group, but there was no statistically difference(all P>0.05). However, the RPC density in the contralateral unaffected group decreased compared with the normal control group(P<0.05). The RPC density in the unilateral BRVO group was not correlated with the CMT(P=0.960), but positively correlated with the RNFL thickness(r=0.401, P=0.014)and negatively correlated with the DAVD(r=-0.339, P=0.040).CONCLUSION: The RNFL thickened significantly and the RPC density did not change significantly in the optic disc area of BRVO patients. The RPC density is positively correlated with the RNFL thickness, indicating that the RNFL thickness can be used as a monitoring indicator to analyze and study the damage degree of the RPC density.

[Objective] To evaluate the efficacy and safety of sacral neuromodulation (SNM) in the treatment of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) complicated with underactive bladder (UAB) who respond poorly to transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP). [Methods] A retrospective analysis was performed on 10 patients with BPH and UAB treated with TURP by the same surgeon in Zhongda Hospital Southeast University during Jan.2018 and Jan.2023.The residual urine volume was not significantly relieved after operation, and the maximum urine flow rate and urine volume per discharge were not significantly improved.All patients underwent phase I SNM, and urinary diaries were recorded before and after surgery to observe the average daily frequency of urination, volume per urination, maximum urine flow rate, and residual urine volume. [Results] The operation time was (97.6±11.2) min.During the postoperative test of 2-4 weeks, if the residual urine volume reduction by more than 50% was deemed as effective, SNM was effective in 6 patients (60.0%). Compared with preoperative results, the daily frequency of urination [(20.2±3.8) times vs. (13.2±3.2) times], volume per urination [(119.2±56.7) mL vs. (246.5±59.2) mL], maximum urine flow rate [(8.7±1.5) mL/s vs. (16.5±2.6) mL/s], and residual urine volume [(222.5±55.0) mL vs. (80.8±16.0) mL] were significantly improved, with statistical significance (P<0.05). There were no complications such as bleeding, infection, fever or pain.The 6 patients who had effective outcomes successfully completed phase II surgery, and the fistula was removed.During the follow-up of 1 year, the curative effect was stable, and there were no complications such as electrode displacement, incision infection, or pain in the irritation sites.The residual urine volume of the other 4 unsuccessful patients did not improve significantly, and the electrodes were removed and the vesicostomy tube was retained. [Conclusion] SNM is safe and effective in the treatment of BPH with UAB patients with poor curative effects after TURP.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure （CHF）. METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group， Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups （12.25， 24.50 g/kg， calculated by crude drug）， and chemical medicine group （Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets， 10.42 mg/kg）， with 10 rats in each group； control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication， the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP） and adenosine triphosphate （ATP） in serum and phosphatidic acid （PA） and cardiolipin （CL） in myocardial tissue were all detected； the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed； the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined； the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed； the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 （Mfn1）， Mfn2， optic atrophy protein 1 （OPA1） and dynamin-related protein 1 （Drp1） were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group，the serum content of NT-proBNP， apoptotic rate of myocardial cells， and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly； serum content of ATP，contents of PA and CL， and relative expressions of Mfn1， Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced （P＜0.05）. There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue， degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells， and severe fibrosis； the mitochondria were swollen， with reduced or absent cristae， and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction， the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats （excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group） were significantly reversed （P＜0.05）； the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved， fibrosis had significantly reduced， mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal， cristae had increased， and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats， thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis， the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.