1.Construction and validation of a prognostic prediction model for pediatric sepsis based on the Phoenix sepsis score.
Yongtian LUO ; Hui SUN ; Zhigui JIANG ; Zhen YANG ; Chengxi LU ; Lufei RAO ; Tingting PAN ; Yuxin RAO ; Xiao LI ; Honglan YANG
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(9):856-860
OBJECTIVE:
To construct and validate a prognostic prediction model for children with sepsis using the Phoenix sepsis score (PSS).
METHODS:
A retrospective case series study was conducted to collect clinical data of children with sepsis admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from January 2022 to April 2024. The data included general information, the worst values of laboratory indicators within the first 24 hours of PICU admission, PSS score, pediatric critical illness score (PCIS), and the survival status of the children within 30 days of admission. The statistically significant indicators in univariate Logistic regression analysis were included in multivariate Logistic regression analysis to screen the risk factors affecting the prognosis of children with sepsis and construct a nomogram model. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. The Bootstrap method was used to perform 1 000 repeated sampling internal verification and draw the calibration curve of the model.
RESULTS:
A total of 199 children with sepsis were included, of which 32 died and 167 survived 30 days after admission. In the univariate Logistic regression analysis, shock, white blood cell count (WBC), international normalized ratio (INR), lactic acid (Lac), PSS score, and PCIS score were identified as statistically significant predictors. These variables were then included in the multivariate Logistic regression analysis, which demonstrated that shock [odds ratio (OR) = 4.258, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.049-17.288], WBC (OR = 1.124, 95%CI was 1.052-1.210), and PSS score (OR = 1.977, 95%CI was 1.298-3.012) were independent risk factors for mortality in pediatric patients with sepsis (all P < 0.05). A nomogram model was constructed based on these three risk factors, with the model equation as follows: -4.809+1.449×shock+0.682×PSS score+0.117×WBC. The calibration curve results showed that the model's predictions were highly consistent with the actual observations. The ROC curve showed that when the Youden index of the prediction model was 0.792, the sensitivity and specificity were 90.6% and 88.6%, respectively, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.957 (95%CI was 0.930-0.984), which was higher than the AUC of shock, WBC, and PSS score alone (0.808, 0.667, 0.908, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
Shock, WBC, and PSS score have demonstrated certain predictive value for mortality in children with sepsis. The nomogram model based on the above indicators has important clinical significance for evaluating the prognosis and guiding treatment of children with sepsis.
Humans
;
Sepsis/diagnosis*
;
Prognosis
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Logistic Models
;
Intensive Care Units, Pediatric
;
Nomograms
;
Child
;
ROC Curve
;
Risk Factors
;
Male
;
Female
;
Child, Preschool
;
Infant
2.Time trend analysis of the disease burden of colorectal cancer among young and middle-aged adults in China from 1990 to 2021
Jun CHEN ; Dandan TANG ; Yuxin ZHOU ; Yuting TAN ; Honglan LI ; Qun XU ; Yongbing XIANG
Journal of International Oncology 2025;52(8):508-516
Objective:To analyze the disease burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) among young and middle-aged people in China from 1990 to 2021, and to explore the influence of age, period and cohort on the incidence and mortality of CRC in young and middle-aged people of China.Methods:Data on CRC in patients aged 40-59 years in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Statistics such as incidence rate, mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and their corresponding age-standardized rates were calculated to analyze the CRC incidence and mortality in different age and sex groups of young and middle-aged Chinese young people from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the CRC incidence, the mortality and the DALY rate, as well as to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). The effects of three independent factors, namely age, period and cohort, on the incidence and mortality of CRC in young and middle-aged people of China were analyzed and evaluated through the age-period-cohort model.Results:From 1990 to 2021, there was a remarkable upward trend in the incidence, mortality, and DALY of CRC among Chinese young and middle-aged adults. In 2021, the number of incidence cases of CRC among young and middle-aged people in China reached 181 000, and the number of deaths reached 57 900, which were 236.80% and 75.48% higher than those in 1990 (53 800 and 33 000, respectively). During the same period, DALY increased by 62.59%, with the 55-59 age group having the largest increase at 83.35%. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased by 49.04%, rising from 25.51/100 000 to 38.02/100 000, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) declined by 28.75%, decreasing from 17.01/100 000 to 12.12/100 000, respectively. The increase in ASIR was the greatest among the 40-44 age group, reaching 57.31%, while the decline in ASMR was the most significant among the 50-54 age group, amounting to 30.18%. However, the DALY rate declined by 26.66%, from 673.52/100 000 to 493.94/100 000. The decline in DALY was the greatest among the 50-54 age group, reaching 28.26%. Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that, from 1990 to 2021, the incidence of CRC in Chinese young and middle-aged adults rose on average by 1.32% annually, and the increase was higher in men (1.87%) than that in women (0.36%). The mortality rate showed a downward trend, with an average annual decline of 1.10%, with a higher decline in women than in men (-2.14% vs. -0.50%). The DALY rate showed a downward trend, with an average annual decline of 1.00%, and more decline in women than in men (-2.06% vs. -0.41%). All of these trends were statistically significant (all P<0.001). The age-period-cohort model analysis showed that, the net drift of CRC incidence was 1.21% (1.02%-1.41%) per year among Chinese young and middle-aged adults between 1990 and 2021, while the net drift in mortality was -1.40% (-1.59%--1.21%) per year. The impact of age on CRC incidence and mortality intensified with advancing age. Incidence attributable to age rose from 12.66% (11.90%- 13.46%) in the 40-44 age group to 56.68% (54.37%-59.08%) in the 55-59 age group. Similarly, mortality attributable to age increased from 6.47% (6.12%-6.85%) in the 40-44 age group to 25.74% (24.58%-26.96%) in the 55-59 age group. In all age groups, the role of CRC incidence and mortality attributable to age was higher in men than in women. Period effects on the RR value of CRC incidence showed a declining trend followed by an upward trend, with the highest risk during 2015-2019 ( RR=1.36, 95% CI: 1.28-1.43), using 2000-2004 as the reference. For mortality, period effects exhibited a declining trend, with the highest risk during 1990-1994 ( RR=1.23, 95% CI: 1.15-1.32), using 2000-2004 as the reference. Cohort effects indicated that later birth cohorts had higher incidence risks, with the highest incidence observed in the 1973-1977 birth cohort ( RR=1.30, 95% CI: 1.16-1.45), using the 1953-1957 birth cohort as the reference. Conversely, later birth cohorts had lower mortality risks, with the lowest mortality in the 1973-1977 birth cohort ( RR=0.78, 95% CI: 0.69-0.88), using the 1953-1957 birth cohort as the reference. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2021, the changes in the disease burden of CRC among young and middle-aged people in China are manifested as an increase in standardized incidence rate and a decrease in standardized mortality rate. Meanwhile, there are gender differences in the trend of temporal changes. Age, period and cohort all have a significant impact on the incidence and mortality trends of colorectal cancer in young and middle-aged people. Research on the etiology of CRC should be strengthened, and targeted prevention and control strategies should be formulated.
3.Association between dietary inflammatory index and gallstone disease among middle-aged and elderly population
TAN Jingyu ; TUO Jiayi ; YANG Danni ; FANG Jie ; LI Honglan ; XIANG Yongbing
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(7):611-615
Objective:
To analyze the association between dietary inflammatory index (DII) and gallstone disease among middle-aged and elderly population, so as to provide the evidence for the prevention and control of gallstone disease.
Methods:
Baseline survey data were collected from the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS) and Shanghai Men's Health Study (SMHS), including demographic information, gallstone disease prevalence and dietary habits. DII was calculated using 29 kinds of food parameters associated with common inflammatory biomarkers and food intake data of residents. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to analyze the association between dietary inflammatory index and gallstone disease.
Results:
A total of 132 312 individuals were included in the analysis. There were 59 627 males and 72 685 females. Among males, the median age was 53.07 (interquartile range, 9.73) years, 41 544 cases (69.67%) had an educational level of middle school, 4 463 cases (7.48%) had gallstone disease, and DII was -6.46 to 5.59. Among females, the median age was 50.27 (interquartile range, 9.05) years, 47 380 cases (65.19%) had an educational level of middle school, 8 090 cases (11.13%) had gallstone disease, and DII was -6.44 to 4.93. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for age, educational level, income level, smoking, alcohol consumption, tea consumption, physical activity and menopausal status (only for females), DII (OR=1.095, 95%CI: 1.002-1.196) was associated with an increased risk of gallston disease among males, but no statistically association was found among females (P>0.05).
Conclusion
DII might be associated with an increased risk of gallstone disease among middle-aged and elderly population.
4.Statistical analysis of disability-adjusted life years for stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai
Jing WU ; Lei ZHANG ; Yu JIANG ; Dandan TANG ; Yuxuan XIAO ; Yun ZHANG ; Honglan LI ; Wensui ZHAO ; Qinghua XIA ; Yongbing XIANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(2):168-176
Objectives:To analyze the status and temporal changes of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for stomach and colorectal cancers among registered permanent residents in Changning District of Shanghai Municipality, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of stomach and colorectal cancers in this district.Methods:Using the cancer registration data of stomach and colorectal cancers from 2002 to 2019, we estimated the indices such as the DALYs, the DALY crude rates, the age-standardized DALY rates, etc. Then we used the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) to explore the temporal variations in different periods.Results:The DALYs of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District from 2002 to 2019 were 55 931 person years and 65 252 person years, respectively. The crude rates of DALY were 512.16/10 5 and 597.51/10 5, respectively. We observed a higher disease burden in men than in women, and the peak rate of DALY in stomach cancer was in the 75-79 years age group, while in colorectal cancer the rate was in the 85-years-or-older age group. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that from 2002 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of stomach cancer showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.86%, P<0.05), while the trend of colorectal cancer was not statistically significant(AAPC=-0.08%, P>0.05). However, the trends in the age-standardized DALY rates of colorectal cancer were different between males and females, with males showing an upward trend (AAPC=1.24%, P<0.05) and females showing a downward trend (AAPC=-1.67%, P<0.05). Conclusions:The DALY of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai showed a decreasing trend. Males and the middle-aged and elderly populations are still the key targets for disease prevention and control in this district.
5.Statistical analysis of disability-adjusted life years for stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai
Jing WU ; Lei ZHANG ; Yu JIANG ; Dandan TANG ; Yuxuan XIAO ; Yun ZHANG ; Honglan LI ; Wensui ZHAO ; Qinghua XIA ; Yongbing XIANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(2):168-176
Objectives:To analyze the status and temporal changes of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for stomach and colorectal cancers among registered permanent residents in Changning District of Shanghai Municipality, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of stomach and colorectal cancers in this district.Methods:Using the cancer registration data of stomach and colorectal cancers from 2002 to 2019, we estimated the indices such as the DALYs, the DALY crude rates, the age-standardized DALY rates, etc. Then we used the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) to explore the temporal variations in different periods.Results:The DALYs of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District from 2002 to 2019 were 55 931 person years and 65 252 person years, respectively. The crude rates of DALY were 512.16/10 5 and 597.51/10 5, respectively. We observed a higher disease burden in men than in women, and the peak rate of DALY in stomach cancer was in the 75-79 years age group, while in colorectal cancer the rate was in the 85-years-or-older age group. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that from 2002 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of stomach cancer showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.86%, P<0.05), while the trend of colorectal cancer was not statistically significant(AAPC=-0.08%, P>0.05). However, the trends in the age-standardized DALY rates of colorectal cancer were different between males and females, with males showing an upward trend (AAPC=1.24%, P<0.05) and females showing a downward trend (AAPC=-1.67%, P<0.05). Conclusions:The DALY of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai showed a decreasing trend. Males and the middle-aged and elderly populations are still the key targets for disease prevention and control in this district.
6.Influence of diabetes and obesity on the risk of recurrence or anal fistula in patients with perianal abscess after simple incision and drainage
Honglan SUN ; Deming YU ; Huifeng LIU ; Changliang CHEN ; Nan LI
Chinese Journal of Endocrine Surgery 2024;18(3):358-362
Objective:To explore the interaction effect of diabetes and obesity on recurrence or anal fistula in patients with perianal abscess after simple incision and drainage.Methods:The clinical data of 163 patients with perianal abscess who underwent simple incision and drainage from Jun. 2021 to Jun. 2023 were analyzed retrospectively. The incidence of recurrence or anal fistula in 6 months after surgery was calculated. Multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of postoperative recurrence or anal fistula. The multiplicative and additive models were used to analyze the interaction effect of diabetes and obesity on the risk of postoperative recurrence or anal fistula.Results:In 6 months after simple incision and drainage, the incidence of recurrence or anal fistula was 28.22% (46/163). Univariate analysis results showed that gender, obesity, and diabetes were related to recurrence of perianal abscess or incidence of anal fistula ( P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis results showed that obesity ( OR=2.447, 95% CI: 1.320-4.538) and diabetes ( OR=2.162, 95% CI: 1.187-3.938) were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence or anal fistula ( P<0.05). Interaction effect analysis found that after adjusting for confounding factors, diabetes and obesity had additive interaction effect on the risk of postoperative recurrence or anal fistula. The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attribution percentage (AP), and interaction effect index (S) were 1.829 (95% CI: 0.605-3.007), 0.405 (95% CI: 0.143-0.597), and 2.098 (95% CI: 1.201-3.172), respectively. There was no multiplicative interaction effect between the two ( P>0.05) . Conclusions:Diabetes and obesity are independent risk factors for recurrence or anal fistula in patients with perianal abscess after simple incision and drainage. The two may have synergistic effect on the risk of postoperative recurrence or anal fistula.
7.Construction and preliminary application of nursing research clinic program based on grid management
Chenglin ZHANG ; Honglan SHAN ; Xuemei LI ; Xiaoyan LI ; Ye ZHU
Chinese Journal of Medical Science Research Management 2024;37(3):198-203
Objective:This study aimed to explore the implementation plan of the grid management joint scientific research clinic and to evaluate its impact on enhancing the scientific research capabilities of nursing staff.Methods:Nursing research team developed an implementation strategy for the grid management joint scientific research clinic in 2023 and then promoted it across the hospital. The scores of nursing staff were compared on the self-evaluation scale, general self-efficacy scale, and research innovation achievements before (April-December 2022) and after (January-September 2023) the implementation.Results:The research capabilities of nurses increased significantly from 103.13±2.56 to 141.32±18.09 ( P<0.001), and their self-efficacy increased significantly from 1.95±0.26 to 2.15±0.53 ( P<0.001). The number of college-level and above scientific research projects, the number of journal publications, the number of authorized patterns, the number of participation in academic exchanges at the municipal level and above in nursing societies, and the number of scientific research awards at the municipal level and above all increased compared with the previous ones with statistical significance. Conclusions:Implementing the grid management joint scientific research clinic is beneficial for improving overall nursing research capabilities, nurses' self-efficacy, and the effectiveness of scientific research training. This provides a reference for other hospitals to enhance the training of nursing staff's scientific research capabilities.
8.LPS adsorption and inflammation alleviation by polymyxin B-modified liposomes for atherosclerosis treatment.
Huiwen LIU ; Honglan WANG ; Qiyu LI ; Yiwei WANG ; Ying HE ; Xuejing LI ; Chunyan SUN ; Onder ERGONUL ; Füsun CAN ; Zhiqing PANG ; Bo ZHANG ; Yu HU
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2023;13(9):3817-3833
Chronic inflammation is critical in the onset and progression of atherosclerosis (AS). The lipopolysaccharide (LPS) level in the circulation system is elevated in AS patients and animal models, which is correlated with the severity of AS. Inspired by the underlying mechanism that LPS could drive the polarization of macrophages toward the M1 phenotype, aggravate inflammation, and ultimately contribute to the exacerbation of AS, LPS in the circulation system was supposed to be the therapeutic target for AS treatment. In the present study, polymyxin (PMB) covalently conjugated to PEGylated liposomes (PLPs) were formulated to adsorb LPS through specific interactions between PMB and LPS. In vitro, the experiments demonstrated that PLPs could adsorb LPS, reduce the polarization of macrophages to M1 phenotype and inhibit the formation of foam cells. In vivo, the study revealed that PLPs treatment reduced the serum levels of LPS and pro-inflammatory cytokines, decreased the proportion of M1-type macrophages in AS plaque, stabilized AS plaque, and downsized the plaque burdens in arteries, which eventually attenuated the progression of AS. Our study highlighted LPS in the circulation system as the therapeutic target for AS and provided an alternative strategy for AS treatment.
9.Characterization of candidate factors associated with the metastasis and progression of high-grade serous ovarian cancer.
Huiping LIU ; Ling ZHOU ; Hongyan CHENG ; Shang WANG ; Wenqing LUAN ; E CAI ; Xue YE ; Honglan ZHU ; Heng CUI ; Yi LI ; Xiaohong CHANG
Chinese Medical Journal 2023;136(24):2974-2982
BACKGROUND:
High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is the biggest cause of gynecological cancer-related mortality because of its extremely metastatic nature. This study aimed to explore and evaluate the characteristics of candidate factors associated with the metastasis and progression of HGSOC.
METHODS:
Transcriptomic data of HGSOC patients' samples collected from primary tumors and matched omental metastatic tumors were obtained from three independent studies in the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were selected to evaluate the effects on the prognosis and progression of ovarian cancer using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Hub genes' immune landscapes were estimated by the Tumor Immune Estimation Resource (TIMER) database. Finally, using 25 HGSOC patients' cancer tissues and 10 normal fallopian tube tissues, immunohistochemistry (IHC) was performed to quantify the expression levels of hub genes associated with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages.
RESULTS:
Fourteen DEGs, ADIPOQ , ALPK2 , BARX1 , CD37 , CNR2 , COL5A3 , FABP4 , FAP , GPR68 , ITGBL1 , MOXD1 , PODNL1 , SFRP2 , and TRAF3IP3 , were upregulated in metastatic tumors in every database while CADPS , GATA4 , STAR , and TSPAN8 were downregulated. ALPK2 , FAP , SFRP2 , GATA4 , STAR , and TSPAN8 were selected as hub genes significantly associated with survival and recurrence. All hub genes were correlated with tumor microenvironment infiltration, especially cancer-associated fibroblasts and natural killer (NK) cells. Furthermore, the expression of FAP and SFRP2 was positively correlated with the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, and their increased protein expression levels in metastatic samples compared with primary tumor samples and normal tissues were confirmed by IHC ( P = 0.0002 and P = 0.0001, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
This study describes screening for DEGs in HGSOC primary tumors and matched metastasis tumors using integrated bioinformatics analyses. We identified six hub genes that were correlated with the progression of HGSOC, particularly FAP and SFRP2 , which might provide effective targets to predict prognosis and provide novel insights into individual therapeutic strategies for HGSOC.
Humans
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Female
;
Ovarian Neoplasms/pathology*
;
Prognosis
;
Gene Expression Profiling
;
Transcriptome
;
Tumor Microenvironment
;
Receptors, G-Protein-Coupled/therapeutic use*
;
Tetraspanins/genetics*
;
Protein Kinases
;
Integrin beta1/therapeutic use*
10.Epidemiological characteristics and factors affecting blood pressure of migratory hypertensive population in Hainan Province A study of 180 cases
CHEN Qiaochun ; LI Yixuan ; LIU Luming ; JING Wenhua ; ZHU Chaoyong ; WU Honglan ; ZHOU Jing ; LONG Wenfang ; XIAO Sha ; WU Biao ; LIU Yunru
China Tropical Medicine 2023;23(10):1063-
Abstract: Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of the migratory bird population with hypertension in Hainan and to provide a basis for the health management of the migratory bird population. Methods One hundred and eighty migratory birds with hypertension who had lived in in the Mangrove Bay community of Chengmai, Hainan for 3 months or more were selected as the study population. Demographic data, including gender, age, ethnicity, occupation, medication use, family history of hypertension, hometown living environment, Hainan living environment (presence of water area and greenbelt around the residence, type of water area and greenbelt), smoking and alcohol consumption, and height and weight were collected by questionnaire and physical examination to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of the study subjects, and unconditional dichotomous logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors affecting the reduction of blood pressure among the hypertensive migratory bird population before and after taking medication in Hainan. Results A total of 180 study subjects were included, including 77 (42.8%) males and 103 (57.2%) females, with 78 (43.3%) subjects aged ≤65. The hypertension levels were: 87 (48.3%) had normal high blood pressure, 56 (31.1%) had grade 1 hypertension and 37 (20.6%) had grade 2 hypertension. The higher the blood pressure classification, the lower the percentage of migratory individuals whose blood pressure dropped during their stay in Hainan. Age, hypertension classification, dietary habits, living environment, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption were associated with a decrease in blood pressure during Hainan among the study participants who took hypertension medication regularly. Salty diet (OR=2.778, 95%CI:1.070-7.213, P=0.036) and alcohol consumption (OR=2.686, 95%CI:1.042-6.925, P=0.041) were unfavorable factors for lower diastolic blood pressure before taking medication; overweight (OR=3.487, 95%CI:1.306-9.310, P=0.013) was an unfavorable factor in the reduction of diastolic blood pressure after taking medication. Conclusion The blood pressure reduction is more significant in migratory individuals in migratory individuals under 65 years old, with a light diet, no alcohol consumption and normal BMI. Environmental factors, age, dietary habits and lifestyle are the main causes of blood pressure, which can provide a reference basis for the health management of the migratory birds with hypertension in Hainan.


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