Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

OBJECTIVE To study the improvement effect and mechanism of Dendrobium officinale on skin damage in mice with xeroderma. METHODS The mice were randomly divided into control group， model group， and D. officinale group， with 5 mice in each group. Except for the control group （which only underwent shaving treatment）， the mice in all other groups were induced to develop a xeroderma model using an acetone-ether mixture for five consecutive days. The mice in D. officinale group were treated with 200 μL of D. officinale suspension （0.2 mg/mL） two hours after the first modeling each day. Mice in the control group and the model group were applied with an equal volume of pure water； once a day， until the end of the modeling process. After last medication， skin lesions and pathological morphology of the mice were observed. Immunofluorescence was used to detect the expressions of Filaggrin， Loricrin and Ki67 proteins in skin tissue of the mice. The core pathways through which D. officinale improves skin damage in xeroderma were screened using 16S rRNA sequencing combined with gene ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes （KEGG） enrichment analyses， and subsequent validation was conducted. RESULTS Compared with the control group， the mice in the model group exhibited obvious scratching behavior， with a large amount of scale on the skin， excessive epidermal keratinization， and thickened stratum spinosum. The skin scale score， epidermal thickness， and the expression levels of Ki67， Filaggrin， and Loricrin proteins in the skin tissue were significantly increased/elevated （ P ＜0.05）. Compared with model group， the mice in the D. officinale group exhibited reduced scratching behavior and scaling， along with a mitigated degree of skin keratinization. The aforementioned quantitative indicators were significantly decreased/reduced （ P ＜0.05）. The results of core pathway screening revealed that the KEGG pathways involving differentially expressed genes included signaling pathways such as interleukin-17 （IL-17） and tumor necrosis factor （TNF）. Further validation experim ents found that after intervention with D. officinale ， mRNA expression of downstream effector molecules CCN1， Hbegf， Tnfrsf12a， and Thbs1 genes in skin tissues were all significantly reduced （ P ＜0.05）. CONCLUSIONS D. officinale can repair skin damage in mice with xeroderma， and its mechanism of action is related to restoring the balance of proliferation and differentiation in keratinocytes and down-regulating the mRNA expressions of CCN1， Hbegf， Tnfrsf12a， and Thbs1.

ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive， simple， and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding （EGVB）， and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects， and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy， they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups， and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses， and the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram， and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count （RBC）， cholinesterase （ChE）， alkaline phosphatase （ALP）， albumin （Alb）， thrombin time （TT）， portal vein trunk diameter， sequential therapy， and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis， a logistic model was established as logit（P）=-0.805-1.978×（RBC）+0.001×（ChE）-0.020×（ALP）-0.314×（Alb）+0.567×（TT）+0.428×（portal vein trunk diameter）-2.303×［sequential therapy （yes=1， no=0）］-2.368×［primary prevention （yes=1， no=0）］. The logistic model （AUC=0.928， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.893—0.964， P<0.001） had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score （AUC=0.603， 95%CI： 0.520—0.687， P=0.003）， Child-Pugh class （AUC=0.650， 95%CI： 0.578—0.722， P=0.001）， and FIB-4 index （AUC=0.587， 95%CI： 0.503—0.671， P=0.045）. The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607， a sensitivity of 0.817， and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy， implementation of primary prevention， an increase in RBC， and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding， while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.

ObjectiveTo investigate the current professional competency among full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in Shanghai, so as to provide a scientific basis for future training programmes. MethodsIn December 2024, a questionnaire survey was conducted by the Shanghai Nosocomial Infection Quality Control Center among full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration across medical institutions at various levels and types in Shanghai using convenience sampling method. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: demographic information and professional competency assessment. The professional competency scale comprised four dimensions: fundamental cognition, basic skills, professional expertise, and personal qualities, totaling 35 items. ResultsA total of 1 179 questionnaires were distributed, with 1 144 valid responses collected, yielding an effective response rate of 97.03%. Statistically significant differences were observed among full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in terms of age (t=5.32, P=0.021), professional background (χ²=9.90, P=0.019), educational qualifications (χ²=19.10, P<0.001), professional titles (χ²=12.60, P=0.002), and the levels of medical institutions (χ²=111.08, P<0.001). The scores of full-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in fundamental cognition [92 (82, 99) points] and basic skills [88 (78, 96) points] were significantly higher than those of part-time personnel(Z=-2.21, P=0.027;Z=-2.74, P=0.006). Statistically significant differences were found in fundamental cognition scores between full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration regarding occupational safety protection, definition of healthcare-associated infection outbreaks, types of drug-resistant bacteria and their prevention and control strategies, and transmission routes of different infectious diseases (all P<0.05). Statistically significant differences were also observed in basic skills scores including proficient use of monitoring platforms, formulation and revision of standard operating procedures (SOPs), independent completion of targeted surveillance, guidance on basic infection control skills, guidance for key departments, and follow-up of personnel with occupational exposure (all P<0.05). However, no statistically significant differences were found in scores of professional knowledge and personal qualities (P>0.05). ConclusionThere are certain differences in professional competency between full-time and part-time personnel of the nosocomial infection control administration in Shanghai in terms of fundamental cognition and basic skills. Part-time personnel can effectively improve their professional competency through systematic training on basic infection control knowledge and practical skills, thereby comprehensively enhancing the overall quality of the nosocomial infection administration team.

Obesity has become one of the important factors affecting the entire management process of liver transplantation. Its impact is not only reflected in the increased risk of liver steatosis and ischemia-reperfusion injury in the donor, but also involves the increased technical difficulty during the perioperative period for the recipient, the increase in postoperative metabolic complications and poorer long-term prognosis. This article, based on recent relevant studies, reviews aspects such as the utilization of obese donors, the characteristics of adult and pediatric recipients, pre-transplant risk assessment and weight loss intervention, and post-transplant weight and metabolic management. Current evidence suggests that simply judging transplantation risks based on body mass index has limitations. Analysis of body composition, assessment of cardiovascular function and identification of sarcopenic obesity are more clinically valuable. For obese liver transplant recipients, in a multidisciplinary collaboration framework, emphasis should be placed on individualized screening, perioperative optimization and long-term follow-up management to improve the outcomes of the graft and the recipient.

ObjectiveTo investigate whether there exists an independent association beyond shared risk factors between colorectal space-occupying lesions and metabolic associated fatty liver disease （MAFLD）， and to provide new ideas for early identification of colorectal space-occupying lesions in the MAFLD population. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for 12 252 patients who were hospitalized in The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University （Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital） and underwent both colonoscopy and abdominal imaging （abdominal ultrasound， magnetic resonance imaging， or computed tomography） from September 1， 2018 to August 31， 2023. According to colonoscopy findings， the patients were divided into colorectal space-occupying lesion group with 6 545 patients and non-colorectal space-occupying lesion group with 5 707 patients. Baseline data were compared between the two groups. The univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to identify influencing factors for colorectal space-occupying lesions， and further analysis was performed to investigate the association of MAFLD and liver fibrosis （assessed by fibrosis-4 ［FIB-4］， nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score ［NFS］， and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index） with colorectal space-occupying lesions. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data with skewed distribution between groups， and the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. ResultsThe univariate analysis showed that compared with the non-colorectal space-occupying lesion group， the colorectal space-occupying lesion group had significantly higher age （Z=-95.628， P<0.001）， proportion of male patients （χ²=406.910， P<0.001）， body weight （Z=-24.928， P<0.001）， body mass index （BMI） （Z=-21.367， P<0.001）， diastolic blood pressure （Z=-15.527， P<0.001）， systolic blood pressure （Z=-16.965， P<0.001）， proportion of patients with history of coronary heart disease （χ²=28.112， P<0.001）/hypertension （χ²=152.993， P<0.001）/diabetes （χ²=52.175， P<0.001）/cerebral infarction （χ²=14.097， P<0.001）， white blood cell count （WBC） （Z=-12.801， P<0.001）， hemoglobin （HGB） （Z=-19.258， P<0.001）， aspartate aminotransferase （Z=-6.673， P=0.001）， alanine aminotransferase （Z=-10.375， P<0.001）， alkaline phosphatase （Z=-10.496， P<0.001）， gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase （GGT） （Z=-18.893， P<0.001）， blood urea nitrogen （Z=-13.291， P<0.001）， creatinine （Z=-16.798， P<0.001）， uric acid （Z=-16.822， P<0.001）， triglyceride （Z=-10.186， P<0.001）， and fasting blood glucose （Z=-15.761， P<0.001）. The multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age （odds ratio ［OR］=1.052， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.045 — 1.057， P<0.001）， sex （OR=0.523， 95%CI： 0.466 — 0.587， P<0.001）， BMI （OR=1.031， 95%CI： 1.018 — 1.046， P<0.001）， history of hypertension （OR=1.140， 95%CI： 1.019 — 1.276， P=0.022）， WBC （OR=1.057， 95%CI： 1.028 — 1.087， P<0.001）， GGT （OR=1.001， 95%CI： 1.000 — 1.002， P=0.021）， Alb （OR=0.982， 95%CI： 0.969 — 0.995， P=0.008）， and HGB （OR=1.004， 95%CI： 1.001 — 1.008， P=0.019） were independent influencing factors for colorectal space-occupying lesions. In the MAFLD population， after adjustment for age， sex， BMI， history of hypertension， WBC， HGB， GGT， and Alb， intermediate-to-high risk of advanced liver fibrosis assessed by FIB-4 and NFS was still an influencing factor for colorectal space-occupying lesions （FIB-4： OR=1.457， 95%CI： 1.176 — 1.810， P<0.05； NFS： OR=1.499， 95%CI： 1.244 — 1.809， P<0.05）. Liver fibrosis degree based on FIB-4 was not significantly associated with the pathological type， location， size， or number of colorectal space-occupying lesions （all P>0.05）. While intermediate-to-high risk of advanced liver fibrosis based on NFS was not associated with pathological type， location， or size， it might be associated with the number of lesions （χ²=9.770， P<0.05）. ConclusionAge， sex， BMI， history of hypertension， WBC， HGB， GGT， and Alb are independent influencing factors for colorectal space-occupying lesions. Intermediate-to-high risk of advanced liver fibrosis assessed by FIB-4 or NFS is independently associated with colorectal space-occupying lesions， and liver fibrosis assessed by NFS might be associated with the increase in the number of lesions.

Objective: To investigate the longitudinal associations between dietary patterns in early childhood and myopia among children, so as to provide evidence for improving early childhood dietary patterns and promoting healthy ocular development among children. Methods: Participants were derived from the Ma-anshan Birth Cohort (MABC). A total of 1 432 children were included. Dietary patterns at 2.5 years of age were collected in 2017 using a food frequency questionnaire completed by parents. In 2022, cycloplegic refraction and ocular biometric parameters were measured in children aged 7-8 years. Food components were grouped into tertiles ( T1-T 3), and latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify dietary pattern at the age of 2.5. Log-binomial regression and multiple linear regression model were applied to examine the associations of dietary patterns and their latent classes with myopia, spherical equivalent (SE), and axial length (AL). Results: The prevalence of myopia among children was 23.9%. After adjusting for covariates, the T 2 group of cereals and tubers was negatively associated with myopia rate ( RR=0.72, 95%CI =0.57-0.90) and AL ( β=-0.15, 95%CI =-0.24 to -0.05), and positively associated with SE ( β=0.21, 95%CI =0.06-0.35)(all P ＜0.05). Linear regression models showed that the T 2 group of fruits and vegetables was positively associated with AL ( β=0.09, 95%CI =0.00- 0.19 ); the T 3 group of high sugar foods ( β=0.11, 95%CI =0.00-0.21) and the T 3 group of processed foods ( β= 0.10 , 95%CI =0.00-0.19) were positively associated with AL; total scores for high sugar foods ( β=0.07, 95%CI =0.00-0.14) and processed foods ( β=0.09, 95%CI =0.01-0.17) were positively associated with AL (all P <0.05). After adjusting for sex, age, and parental myopia, the comprehensive high intake pattern was positively associated with AL ( β=0.12, 95%CI =0.00-0.23, P <0.05). After further adjusting for daily screen time and daily outdoor activity time, the association was no longer statistically significant ( β= 0.11 , 95%CI =-0.00-0.23, P >0.05). Conclusions Moderate consumption of cereals and tubers in early childhood may reduce the risk of myopia and delay AL growth. In contrast, high sugar and highly processed diets may promote AL and increase myopia risk. Establishing healthy dietary habits in early childhood and limiting intake of high sugar and processed foods is crucial for promoting ocular development in children.

Objective To investigate the influencing factors of advanced bone age in early adolescence, and to provide a scientific basis for the early identification of children and adolescents with abnormal bone age development. Methods A prospective cohort study design was adopted. From July 2022 to September 2023, height, weight, and body composition data of children were collected, with the baseline age of the study participants being 8.42±0.50 years. Subsequently, from March 2024 to November 2025, these children in the cohort were followed up and their bone age development was monitored. In the end, a total of 1142 participants with complete data were included in the study. Results In early adolescence, there were 239 individuals (20.93%) with early bone age development and 103 (9.02%) with delayed development. The proportion of early bone age development was higher among individuals whose mothers had gestational hypertension during pregnancy, and the difference was statistically significant (χ²=8.90, P<0.05). The proportion of early bone age development was higher among boys, and the difference was statistically significant (χ²=41.69, P＜0.001). Disordered multiclass logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for demographic factors, overweight (OR=2.65, 95%CI:1.81-3.88), obesity (OR=6.51, 95%CI: 4.45-9.53), and excessive body fat percentage (OR=4.60, 95% CI: 3.01-7.03) were associated with an increased risk of early bone age development in children and adolescents. Conclusion Being overweight/obese and having an excessive body fat percentage can increase the risk of early bone age development in adolescents.

Methods: The clinical data of 26 patients diagnosed with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation complicated by atlantodental bony obstruction were analyzed retrospectively. All patients underwent anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, followed by posterior occipitocervical fusion. Details including surgical duration and blood loss volume were recorded. Radiographic data such as the anterior atlantodental interval, O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle, and clinical data including the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score were assessed. The fusion time of the grafted bone and the development of complications were examined. Results: In patients undergoing anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, the surgical duration and blood loss volume were 120.1±16.4 minutes and 100.6±33.5 mL, respectively. The anterior atlantodental interval decreased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle increased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The JOA score during the latest follow-up significantly increased compared with that before the surgery (p <0.001). The improvement rate of the JOA score was 80.8%±18.1%. The fusion time of the grafted bone was 3–8 months, with an average of 5.7±1.5 months. In total, 11 patients presented with postoperative dysphagia and three with irritating cough. However, none of them exhibited other major complications. Conclusions Anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty can anatomically reduce the atlantoaxial joint with a satisfactory clinical outcome in patients with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction.

Methods: The clinical data of 26 patients diagnosed with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation complicated by atlantodental bony obstruction were analyzed retrospectively. All patients underwent anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, followed by posterior occipitocervical fusion. Details including surgical duration and blood loss volume were recorded. Radiographic data such as the anterior atlantodental interval, O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle, and clinical data including the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score were assessed. The fusion time of the grafted bone and the development of complications were examined. Results: In patients undergoing anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty, the surgical duration and blood loss volume were 120.1±16.4 minutes and 100.6±33.5 mL, respectively. The anterior atlantodental interval decreased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The O–C2 angle, space available for the cord, clivus–canal angle, and cervical medullary angle increased significantly after the surgery (p <0.001). The JOA score during the latest follow-up significantly increased compared with that before the surgery (p <0.001). The improvement rate of the JOA score was 80.8%±18.1%. The fusion time of the grafted bone was 3–8 months, with an average of 5.7±1.5 months. In total, 11 patients presented with postoperative dysphagia and three with irritating cough. However, none of them exhibited other major complications. Conclusions Anterior retropharyngeal atlantodentoplasty can anatomically reduce the atlantoaxial joint with a satisfactory clinical outcome in patients with irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation with atlantodental bony obstruction.