Objective: To analyze the trend of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County of Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022 and the influence of age, period and birth cohort effect on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis, so as to provide a new theoretical reference for the prevention and control of local pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods : Based on the registration data of new pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Yecheng County, Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022, the connection point regression model was used to calculate the crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate, annual percentage change(APC), and average annual percentage change(AAPC) to describe the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the influence of age, period and birth cohort effect on the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence. Results : From 2011 to 2022, a total of 17 057 new cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were registered in Yecheng County, Xinjiang. The crude incidence and standardized incidence were 416.07/100 000 and 496.01/100 000, respectively. The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis increased first and then decreased during the 12 years, with an upward trend from 2011 to 2018. The APC values of the standardized incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in the total population, males and females were 24.42%(95%CI: 11.55-38.78), 27.24%(95%CI: 12.35-44.10) and 21.79%(95%CI: 9.81-35.09), respectively. From 2018 to 2022, there was a downward trend. The APC values of the standardized incidence of tuberculosis in the total population, males and females were-38.51%(95%CI:-53.27--19.09),-38.18%(95%CI:-54.59--15.85) and-38.73%(95%CI:-52.96--20.19), respectively. With the increase of age, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a trend of rising first and then fluctuating steadily. The risk of the population increased first and then decreased over time, and the later the birth, the lower the risk of the cohort. Conclusion The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County of Xinjiang showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing in the past 12 years, and gradually increased with age. The earlier the birth, the higher the risk of the disease. Men and the elderly are the key targets of tuberculosis prevention and control in Yecheng County, Xinjiang. It is recommended to strengthen the screening of key populations.

Objective To use the auto-regressive moving average(ARMA)model and long short term memory(LSTM)depth neural network to predict the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Jiashi County.Methods The legal infectious disease report data in this area from January 2014 to June 2023 were collected to construct the data set,in which the onset data of pulmonary tuberculosis from January 2014 to De-cember 2021 were used to the model construction and the data from January 2022 to June 2023 were used to the model verification.The Eviews7.2 and MATLAB2023a softwares were used to construct the ARMA mode and LSTM neural network.The monthly onset number of pulmonary tuberculosis from 2022 to 2023 was pre-dicted.Results The root-mean-square error(RMSE)of the optimal ARMA model and LSTM neural network verification from January 2014 to June 2023 was 26.494 and 12.713 respectively,suggesting that the fitting effect of LSTM neural network was better than that of ARMA model.The predictive results by adopting the LSTM neural network was basically consistent with the actual onset situation.Conclusion The LSTM neural network has good fitting and predicting effect for the onset trend in Jiashi County,which could provide the theoretical reference for predicting the onset number of pulmonary tuberculosis in the future in this area.