1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Research on the correlation between Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway and spermatogenesis in rats based on the testicular tissue co-culture system
Yan LI ; Shanshan LIU ; Lin GAO ; Lingyi KONG ; Xia YUN ; Yan ZHANG ; Taodi LIU
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2026;61(1):91-97
ObjectiveTo verify the association between the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway and rat spermatogenesis by constructing an in vitro co-culture system of testis. MethodsTesticular tissue blocks from 20-25-day-old male rats were placed in an in vitro culture system, and the culture medium was replaced every 2 to 3 days. PCR was used to verify the expression of marker genes of various spermatogenic cells. RNA interference technology was employed to verify the correlation between the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway and rat spermatogenesis. ResultsThe co-culture system could be continuously cultured for more than 2.5 months in vitro. RT-PCR showed that specific marker genes of spermatogonia, spermatocyte and spermoblast were expressed. The RNA and protein expression of Trib3 and Akt changed after the knocking down of Ddit3 and Trib3, respectively. It demonstrated the existence of Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway in rat spermatogenesis. ConclusionThe culture time of more than 2.5 months indicates that the culture system can temporarily maintain the proliferation and differentiation of stem cells, and simultaneously maintain and stabilize spermatogenesis in a simple system. The successful validation of the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway also confirms that this culture system can be used to study possible molecular mechanisms of spermatogenesis in vitro.
3.Perioperative safety of thymectomy in myasthenia gravis patients with oral high-dose glucocorticoids
Jinjin YAN ; Dazhi PANG ; Jitian ZHANG ; Guangqiang SHAO ; Zhihai LIU ; Rutaiyang LIU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(04):565-569
Objective To investigate the perioperative safety of patients with myasthenia gravis who take high doses of oral glucocorticoids. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients with myasthenia gravis who received oral glucocorticoids and underwent thoracoscopic thymectomy at the Department of Thoracic Surgery, the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital from April 2013 to October 2019. Patients were divided into a high-dose steroid group and a medium-to-low dose steroid group based on the dosage of oral steroids, and the clinical data of the two groups were compared. Results A total of 102 patients were included, including 19 (18.62%) males and 83 (81.37%) females, with an average age of (32.25±9.83) years. There were 75 patients in the medium-to-low dose steroid group and 27 patients in the high-dose steroid group. All patients in both groups successfully completed the surgery without major intraoperative bleeding, conversion to open chest surgery, delayed extubation, severe infection, or perioperative death. The daily oral steroid dose for the high-dose steroid group was (35.81±4.29) mg, and for the medium-to-low dose steroid group it was (15.29±2.17) mg. There was no statistical difference in the operation time [(124.69±23.51) min vs. (117.89±21.46) min, P=0.172] and intraoperative blood loss [(21.19±3.48) mL vs. (20.56±3.41) mL, P=0.419] between the two groups. Postoperatively, 12 (11.76%) patients developed complications: one patient of myasthenic crisis (the medium-to-low dose steroid group), which was improved after short-term respiratory support and intravenous immunoglobulin treatment; 11 patients of respiratory/swallowing difficulties (9 in the medium-to-low dose steroid group and 2 in the high-dose steroid group), which were improved after anticholinergic treatment to reduce oral secretions and sputum suction, and the patients were discharged smoothly. There was no statistical difference in the incidence of postoperative complications between the two groups (P=0.637). Conclusion On the basis of good perioperative management, it is safe and feasible for patients with myasthenia gravis who take high dose of oral steroids to undergo thymectomy, and they have the same perioperative safety as patients with medium-to-low dose steroids.
4.Evaluation of Pulmonary Air-Blood Barrier Damage in Ulcerative Colitis Inflammatory Cancer Transformation Model Mice:Based on the "Lung-Intestine Correlation" Theory
Huiyan XU ; Haimei ZHANG ; Xinyu ZHAN ; Fanwu WU ; Yongsen JIA ; Chenxi WU ; Lingyu KONG ; Xin YAN
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(7):776-783
ObjectiveTo dynamically observe and evaluate the damage to the pulmonary air-blood barrier in mice during the inflammatory cancer transformation process of ulcerative colitis (UC) based on the "lung-intestine correlation" theory. MethodsSixty-five C57BL/6 mice were divided into a normal group (n=25) and a model group (n=40) using a random number table. Azoxymethane/dextran sodium sulfate (DSS) method was used to establish a mouse model of UC inflammation cancer transformation in the modeling group. According to the tissue collection time points at 5, 8, 11, 13, and 15 weeks, the normal group mice were randomly divided into the normal 5w, 8w, 11w, 13w, and 15w groups. The model group mice, 10 mice of which died after the first cycle of DSS administration, were randomly divided into model 5w, 8w, 11w, 13w, and 15w groups. During the experiment, the general condition of the mice was observed daily, and their body weight was measured weekly. At the corresponding tissue collection time points, the colon length of each group was measured. Histopathology of mouse lung and colon tissues was examined using HE staining. Immunofluorescence was used to detect changes in the positive expression of tight junction protein (ZO-1), vascular endothelial cadherin (VE-cadherin), and cytoskeletal protein (F-actin) in lung and colon tissues. RT-PCR was used to detect the mRNA expression of apoptosis regulatory proteins B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2), BCL2-associated X protein (Bax), and Cysteine aspartic acid protease-3 (Caspase-3) in lung tissues. Western Blot was employed to measure protein levels of ZO-1, VE-cadherin, and F-actin in lung tissues. ResultsCompared to the normal group at the same time point, the mice in the model group at each time point generally had poorer conditions, with weight loss and shortened colon length (P<0.05 or P<0.01). In the model 5w group, there was significant inflammatory cell infiltration in the colon tissue; in the model 8w group, there was mild atypical hyperplasia; in the model 11w group, the crypt structure was disordered, and moderate to severe atypical hyperplasia occurred; in the model 13w and 15w groups, tumors appeared. Pulmonary interstitial lesions, inflammation, vasculitis, and fibrosis were observed at all stages of UC inflammation cancer transformation. The protein levels of ZO-1, VE-cadherin, and F-actin, as well as Bcl-2 mRNA expression in lung tissue decreased during the acute inflammatory recovery period, atypical hyperplasia period, and canceration period, while the expressions of Bax and Caspase-3 mRNA increased; the expressions of ZO-1, VE-cadherin, and F-actin proteins in colon tissue decreased during the acute inflammatory recovery period, atypical hyperplasia period, and canceration period (P<0.01 or P<0.05). Compared to the model 5w group, the ZO-1 and F-actin protein levels and Bcl-2 mRNA expression in lung tissue in the other model groups increased in the atypical hyperplasia period and canceration period, while the expressions of Bax and Caspase-3 mRNA decreased; the expression of ZO-1 protein in colon tissue increased in the canceration period, and the expression of VE-cadherin protein decreased in the atypical hyperplasia period (P<0.01 or P<0.05). ConclusionIn the process of "inflammatory response-atypical hyperplasia-carcinogenesis" in UC inflammatory cancer transformation mice, there were damage to air-blood barrier.
5.Traditional Chinese Medicine Treats Acute Lung Injury by Modulating NLRP3 Inflammasome: A Review
Jiaojiao MENG ; Lei LIU ; Yuqi FU ; Hui SUN ; Guangli YAN ; Ling KONG ; Ying HAN ; Xijun WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(6):292-301
Acute lung injury (ALI) is one of the most common and critical diseases in clinical practice, with extremely high morbidity and mortality, seriously threatening human life and health. The pathogenesis of ALI is complex, in which the inflammatory response is a key factor. Studies have shown that NOD-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) inflammasomes are involved in ALI through mechanisms such as inflammation induction, increased microvascular permeability, recruitment of neutrophils, oxidative stress, and pyroptosis, playing a key role in the occurrence and progression of ALI. Therefore, regulating NLRP3 inflammasomes and inhibiting the release of inflammatory factors can alleviate the damage in ALI. At present, ALI is mainly treated by mechanical ventilation and oxygen therapy, which have problems such as high costs and poor prognosis. In recent years, studies have shown that traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) can reduce the inflammatory response and the occurrence of oxidative stress and pyroptosis by regulating the NLRP3 inflammasome, thus alleviating the damage and decreasing the mortality of ALI. Based on the relevant literature in recent years, this article reviews the research progress in TCM treatment of ALI by regulating NLRP3 inflammasomes, discusses how NLRP3 inflammasomes participate in ALI, and summarizes the active ingredients, extracts, and compound prescriptions of TCM that regulate NLRP3 inflammasomes, aiming to provide new ideas for the clinical treatment of ALI and the development of relevant drugs.
6.Identification and Potential Clinical Utility of Common Genetic Variants in Gestational Diabetes among Chinese Pregnant Women
Claudia Ha-ting TAM ; Ying WANG ; Chi Chiu WANG ; Lai Yuk YUEN ; Cadmon King-poo LIM ; Junhong LENG ; Ling WU ; Alex Chi-wai NG ; Yong HOU ; Kit Ying TSOI ; Hui WANG ; Risa OZAKI ; Albert Martin LI ; Qingqing WANG ; Juliana Chung-ngor CHAN ; Yan Chou YE ; Wing Hung TAM ; Xilin YANG ; Ronald Ching-wan MA
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(1):128-143
Background:
The genetic basis for hyperglycaemia in pregnancy remain unclear. This study aimed to uncover the genetic determinants of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and investigate their applications.
Methods:
We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for GDM in Chinese women (464 cases and 1,217 controls), followed by de novo replications in an independent Chinese cohort (564 cases and 572 controls) and in silico replication in European (12,332 cases and 131,109 controls) and multi-ethnic populations (5,485 cases and 347,856 controls). A polygenic risk score (PRS) was derived based on the identified variants.
Results:
Using the genome-wide scan and candidate gene approaches, we identified four susceptibility loci for GDM. These included three previously reported loci for GDM and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at MTNR1B (rs7945617, odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.38 to 1.96]), CDKAL1 (rs7754840, OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.58), and INS-IGF2-KCNQ1 (rs2237897, OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79), as well as a novel genome-wide significant locus near TBR1-SLC4A10 (rs117781972, OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.61 to 2.62; Pmeta=7.6×10-9), which has not been previously reported in GWAS for T2DM or glycaemic traits. Moreover, we found that women with a high PRS (top quintile) had over threefold (95% CI, 2.30 to 4.09; Pmeta=3.1×10-14) and 71% (95% CI, 1.08 to 2.71; P=0.0220) higher risk for GDM and abnormal glucose tolerance post-pregnancy, respectively, compared to other individuals.
Conclusion
Our results indicate that the genetic architecture of glucose metabolism exhibits both similarities and differences between the pregnant and non-pregnant states. Integrating genetic information can facilitate identification of pregnant women at a higher risk of developing GDM or later diabetes.
7.Ras Guanine Nucleotide-Releasing Protein-4 Inhibits Erythropoietin Production in Diabetic Mice with Kidney Disease by Degrading HIF2A
Junmei WANG ; Shuai HUANG ; Li ZHANG ; Yixian HE ; Xian SHAO ; A-Shan-Jiang A-NI-WAN ; Yan KONG ; Xuying MENG ; Pei YU ; Saijun ZHOU
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(3):421-435
Background:
In acute and chronic renal inflammatory diseases, the activation of inflammatory cells is involved in the defect of erythropoietin (EPO) production. Ras guanine nucleotide-releasing protein-4 (RasGRP4) promotes renal inflammatory injury in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Our study aimed to investigate the role and mechanism of RasGRP4 in the production of renal EPO in diabetes.
Methods:
The degree of tissue injury was observed by pathological staining. Inflammatory cell infiltration was analyzed by immunohistochemical staining. Serum EPO levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and EPO production and renal interstitial fibrosis were analyzed by immunofluorescence. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and Western blotting were used to detect the expression of key inflammatory factors and the activation of signaling pathways. In vitro, the interaction between peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and C3H10T1/2 cells was investigated via cell coculture experiments.
Results:
RasGRP4 decreased the expression of hypoxia-inducible factor 2-alpha (HIF2A) via the ubiquitination–proteasome degradation pathway and promoted myofibroblastic transformation by activating critical inflammatory pathways, consequently reducing the production of EPO in T2DM mice.
Conclusion
RasGRP4 participates in the production of renal EPO in diabetic mice by affecting the secretion of proinflammatory cytokines in PBMCs, degrading HIF2A, and promoting the myofibroblastic transformation of C3H10T1/2 cells.
8.International clinical practice guideline on the use of traditional Chinese medicine for functional dyspepsia (2025).
Sheng-Sheng ZHANG ; Lu-Qing ZHAO ; Xiao-Hua HOU ; Zhao-Xiang BIAN ; Jian-Hua ZHENG ; Hai-He TIAN ; Guan-Hu YANG ; Won-Sook HONG ; Yu-Ying HE ; Li LIU ; Hong SHEN ; Yan-Ping LI ; Sheng XIE ; Jin SHU ; Bin-Fang ZENG ; Jun-Xiang LI ; Zhen LIU ; Zheng-Hua XIAO ; Jing-Dong XIAO ; Pei-Yong ZHENG ; Shao-Gang HUANG ; Sheng-Liang CHEN ; Gui-Jun FEI
Journal of Integrative Medicine 2025;23(5):502-518
Functional dyspepsia (FD), characterized by persistent or recurrent dyspeptic symptoms without identifiable organic, systemic or metabolic causes, is an increasingly recognized global health issue. The objective of this guideline is to equip clinicians and nursing professionals with evidence-based strategies for the management and treatment of adult patients with FD using traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). The Guideline Development Group consulted existing TCM consensus documents on FD and convened a panel of 35 clinicians to generate initial clinical queries. To address these queries, a systematic literature search was conducted across PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP Database, China Biology Medicine (SinoMed) Database, Wanfang Database, Traditional Medicine Research Data Expanded (TMRDE), and the Traditional Chinese Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System (TCMLARS). The evidence from the literature was critically appraised using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. The strength of the recommendations was ascertained through a consensus-building process involving TCM and allopathic medicine experts, methodologists, pharmacologists, nursing specialists, and health economists, leveraging their collective expertise and empirical knowledge. The guideline comprises a total of 43 evidence-informed recommendations that span a range of clinical aspects, including the pathogenesis according to TCM, diagnostic approaches, therapeutic interventions, efficacy assessments, and prognostic considerations. Please cite this article as: Zhang SS, Zhao LQ, Hou XH, Bian ZX, Zheng JH, Tian HH, Yang GH, Hong WS, He YY, Liu L, Shen H, Li YP, Xie S, Shu J, Zeng BF, Li JX, Liu Z, Xiao ZH, Xiao JD, Zheng PY, Huang SG, Chen SL, Fei GJ. International clinical practice guideline on the use of traditional Chinese medicine for functional dyspepsia (2025). J Integr Med. 2025; 23(5):502-518.
Dyspepsia/drug therapy*
;
Humans
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional/methods*
;
Practice Guidelines as Topic
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
9.Home-based acupressure for managing constipation and subjective well-being in spinal cord injury survivors: A randomized controlled trial.
Meng-Qi LI ; Yan LI ; Winsome LAM ; Wing Fai YEUNG ; Yuen Shan HO ; Jia-Ying LI ; Tsz Ching SUN ; Sam YUEN ; Yu-le HU ; Jannelle YORKE
Journal of Integrative Medicine 2025;23(6):660-669
BACKGROUND:
Spinal cord injury (SCI) survivors often experience constipation, which contributes to a reduced sense of well-being and a lower quality of life. Acupressure offers a non-pharmacological and non-invasive alternative therapy for treating constipation.
OBJECTIVE:
This study examined the effects of home-based acupressure on constipation and subjective well-being among SCI survivors.
DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS:
This randomized controlled trial randomly assigned 80 adults from Hong Kong with SCI to two study groups. Using a video demonstration filmed by a registered traditional Chinese medicine practitioner, the intervention group performed home-based acupressure (self-administered or caregiver-assisted) twice daily, 15 min/session, for 10 consecutive days. The control group performed manual light touching of the abdomen with the same frequency and duration as the intervention group. Both groups received defecation education through a structured booklet.
MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES:
The primary outcome was constipation severity. Secondary outcomes included bowel habits, psychological well-being, and quality of life. Focus group interviews were conducted after the intervention to collect subjective feedback from participants.
RESULTS:
Significant group-by-time interaction effects on constipation severity (P = 0.005) and quality of life (P = 0.001) revealed that home-based acupressure produced better results than the control. These treatment effects persisted at the one-month follow-up and continued to have a large effect size (Cohen's d > 0.8). Compared to the control group, the acupressure group also had improvements in anxiety (Cohen's d = 0.69) and depression (Cohen's d = 0.72) at the end of the intervention period. Three qualitative categories were identified from the focus group interviews: improvements in bowel function and management; reduced psychological distress following relief from constipation; and acceptability of home-based acupressure.
CONCLUSION:
Acupressure effectively relieves constipation, enhances psychological well-being, and improves quality of life in people with SCI. These data provide novel evidence supporting the use of home-based acupressure as an acceptable and effective therapy for treating constipation after SCI.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05558657). Please cite this article as: Li MQ, Li Y, Lam W, Yeung WF, Ho YS, Li JY, Sun TC, Yuen S, Hu YL, Yorke J. Home-based acupressure for managing constipation and subjective well-being in spinal cord injury survivors: A randomized controlled trial. J Integr Med. 2025; 23(6):660-669.
Humans
;
Acupressure/methods*
;
Constipation/psychology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Spinal Cord Injuries/complications*
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
;
Quality of Life
;
Aged
10.Multidrug resistance reversal effect of tenacissoside I through impeding EGFR methylation mediated by PRMT1 inhibition.
Donghui LIU ; Qian WANG ; Ruixue ZHANG ; Ruixin SU ; Jiaxin ZHANG ; Shanshan LIU ; Huiying LI ; Zhesheng CHEN ; Yan ZHANG ; Dexin KONG ; Yuling QIU
Chinese Journal of Natural Medicines (English Ed.) 2025;23(9):1092-1103
Cancer multidrug resistance (MDR) impairs the therapeutic efficacy of various chemotherapeutics. Novel approaches, particularly the development of MDR reversal agents, are critically needed to address this challenge. This study demonstrates that tenacissoside I (TI), a compound isolated from Marsdenia tenacissima (Roxb.) Wight et Arn, traditionally used in clinical practice as an ethnic medicine for cancer treatment, exhibits significant MDR reversal effects in ABCB1-mediated MDR cancer cells. TI reversed the resistance of SW620/AD300 and KBV200 cells to doxorubicin (DOX) and paclitaxel (PAC) by downregulating ABCB1 expression and reducing ABCB1 drug transport function. Mechanistically, protein arginine methyltransferase 1 (PRMT1), whose expression correlates with poor prognosis and shows positive association with both ABCB1 and EGFR expressions in tumor tissues, was differentially expressed in TI-treated SW620/AD300 cells. SW620/AD300 and KBV200 cells exhibited elevated levels of EGFR asymmetric dimethylarginine (aDMA) and enhanced PRMT1-EGFR interaction compared to their parental cells. Moreover, TI-induced PRMT1 downregulation impaired PRMT1-mediated aDMA of EGFR, PRMT1-EGFR interaction, and EGFR downstream signaling in SW620/AD300 and KBV200 cells. These effects were significantly reversed by PRMT1 overexpression. Additionally, TI demonstrated resistance reversal to PAC in xenograft models without detectable toxicities. This study establishes TI's MDR reversal effect in ABCB1-mediated MDR human cancer cells through inhibition of PRMT1-mediated aDMA of EGFR, suggesting TI's potential as an MDR modulator for improving chemotherapy outcomes.
Humans
;
Protein-Arginine N-Methyltransferases/antagonists & inhibitors*
;
Drug Resistance, Neoplasm/drug effects*
;
ErbB Receptors/genetics*
;
Animals
;
Cell Line, Tumor
;
Drug Resistance, Multiple/drug effects*
;
Methylation/drug effects*
;
Saponins/administration & dosage*
;
Mice
;
Mice, Nude
;
Mice, Inbred BALB C
;
ATP Binding Cassette Transporter, Subfamily B/genetics*
;
Doxorubicin/pharmacology*
;
Paclitaxel/pharmacology*
;
Female
;
Repressor Proteins


Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail