Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

ObjectiveTo verify the association between the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway and rat spermatogenesis by constructing an in vitro co-culture system of testis. MethodsTesticular tissue blocks from 20-25-day-old male rats were placed in an in vitro culture system， and the culture medium was replaced every 2 to 3 days. PCR was used to verify the expression of marker genes of various spermatogenic cells. RNA interference technology was employed to verify the correlation between the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway and rat spermatogenesis. ResultsThe co-culture system could be continuously cultured for more than 2.5 months in vitro. RT-PCR showed that specific marker genes of spermatogonia， spermatocyte and spermoblast were expressed. The RNA and protein expression of Trib3 and Akt changed after the knocking down of Ddit3 and Trib3， respectively. It demonstrated the existence of Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway in rat spermatogenesis. ConclusionThe culture time of more than 2.5 months indicates that the culture system can temporarily maintain the proliferation and differentiation of stem cells， and simultaneously maintain and stabilize spermatogenesis in a simple system. The successful validation of the Ddit3-Trib3-Akt signaling pathway also confirms that this culture system can be used to study possible molecular mechanisms of spermatogenesis in vitro.

Objective To investigate the perioperative safety of patients with myasthenia gravis who take high doses of oral glucocorticoids. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients with myasthenia gravis who received oral glucocorticoids and underwent thoracoscopic thymectomy at the Department of Thoracic Surgery, the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital from April 2013 to October 2019. Patients were divided into a high-dose steroid group and a medium-to-low dose steroid group based on the dosage of oral steroids, and the clinical data of the two groups were compared. Results A total of 102 patients were included, including 19 (18.62%) males and 83 (81.37%) females, with an average age of (32.25±9.83) years. There were 75 patients in the medium-to-low dose steroid group and 27 patients in the high-dose steroid group. All patients in both groups successfully completed the surgery without major intraoperative bleeding, conversion to open chest surgery, delayed extubation, severe infection, or perioperative death. The daily oral steroid dose for the high-dose steroid group was (35.81±4.29) mg, and for the medium-to-low dose steroid group it was (15.29±2.17) mg. There was no statistical difference in the operation time [(124.69±23.51) min vs. (117.89±21.46) min, P=0.172] and intraoperative blood loss [(21.19±3.48) mL vs. (20.56±3.41) mL, P=0.419] between the two groups. Postoperatively, 12 (11.76%) patients developed complications: one patient of myasthenic crisis (the medium-to-low dose steroid group), which was improved after short-term respiratory support and intravenous immunoglobulin treatment; 11 patients of respiratory/swallowing difficulties (9 in the medium-to-low dose steroid group and 2 in the high-dose steroid group), which were improved after anticholinergic treatment to reduce oral secretions and sputum suction, and the patients were discharged smoothly. There was no statistical difference in the incidence of postoperative complications between the two groups (P=0.637). Conclusion On the basis of good perioperative management, it is safe and feasible for patients with myasthenia gravis who take high dose of oral steroids to undergo thymectomy, and they have the same perioperative safety as patients with medium-to-low dose steroids.

ObjectiveTo dynamically observe and evaluate the damage to the pulmonary air-blood barrier in mice during the inflammatory cancer transformation process of ulcerative colitis （UC） based on the "lung-intestine correlation" theory. MethodsSixty-five C57BL/6 mice were divided into a normal group （n=25） and a model group （n=40） using a random number table. Azoxymethane/dextran sodium sulfate （DSS） method was used to establish a mouse model of UC inflammation cancer transformation in the modeling group. According to the tissue collection time points at 5， 8， 11， 13， and 15 weeks， the normal group mice were randomly divided into the normal 5w， 8w， 11w， 13w， and 15w groups. The model group mice， 10 mice of which died after the first cycle of DSS administration， were randomly divided into model 5w， 8w， 11w， 13w， and 15w groups. During the experiment， the general condition of the mice was observed daily， and their body weight was measured weekly. At the corresponding tissue collection time points， the colon length of each group was measured. Histopathology of mouse lung and colon tissues was examined using HE staining. Immunofluorescence was used to detect changes in the positive expression of tight junction protein （ZO-1）， vascular endothelial cadherin （VE-cadherin）， and cytoskeletal protein （F-actin） in lung and colon tissues. RT-PCR was used to detect the mRNA expression of apoptosis regulatory proteins B-cell lymphoma-2 （Bcl-2）， BCL2-associated X protein （Bax）， and Cysteine aspartic acid protease-3 （Caspase-3） in lung tissues. Western Blot was employed to measure protein levels of ZO-1， VE-cadherin， and F-actin in lung tissues. ResultsCompared to the normal group at the same time point， the mice in the model group at each time point generally had poorer conditions， with weight loss and shortened colon length （P＜0.05 or P＜0.01）. In the model 5w group， there was significant inflammatory cell infiltration in the colon tissue； in the model 8w group， there was mild atypical hyperplasia； in the model 11w group， the crypt structure was disordered， and moderate to severe atypical hyperplasia occurred； in the model 13w and 15w groups， tumors appeared. Pulmonary interstitial lesions， inflammation， vasculitis， and fibrosis were observed at all stages of UC inflammation cancer transformation. The protein levels of ZO-1， VE-cadherin， and F-actin， as well as Bcl-2 mRNA expression in lung tissue decreased during the acute inflammatory recovery period， atypical hyperplasia period， and canceration period， while the expressions of Bax and Caspase-3 mRNA increased； the expressions of ZO-1， VE-cadherin， and F-actin proteins in colon tissue decreased during the acute inflammatory recovery period， atypical hyperplasia period， and canceration period （P＜0.01 or P＜0.05）. Compared to the model 5w group， the ZO-1 and F-actin protein levels and Bcl-2 mRNA expression in lung tissue in the other model groups increased in the atypical hyperplasia period and canceration period， while the expressions of Bax and Caspase-3 mRNA decreased； the expression of ZO-1 protein in colon tissue increased in the canceration period， and the expression of VE-cadherin protein decreased in the atypical hyperplasia period （P＜0.01 or P＜0.05）. ConclusionIn the process of "inflammatory response-atypical hyperplasia-carcinogenesis" in UC inflammatory cancer transformation mice， there were damage to air-blood barrier.

Acute lung injury （ALI） is one of the most common and critical diseases in clinical practice， with extremely high morbidity and mortality， seriously threatening human life and health. The pathogenesis of ALI is complex， in which the inflammatory response is a key factor. Studies have shown that NOD-like receptor protein 3 （NLRP3） inflammasomes are involved in ALI through mechanisms such as inflammation induction， increased microvascular permeability， recruitment of neutrophils， oxidative stress， and pyroptosis， playing a key role in the occurrence and progression of ALI. Therefore， regulating NLRP3 inflammasomes and inhibiting the release of inflammatory factors can alleviate the damage in ALI. At present， ALI is mainly treated by mechanical ventilation and oxygen therapy， which have problems such as high costs and poor prognosis. In recent years， studies have shown that traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） can reduce the inflammatory response and the occurrence of oxidative stress and pyroptosis by regulating the NLRP3 inflammasome， thus alleviating the damage and decreasing the mortality of ALI. Based on the relevant literature in recent years， this article reviews the research progress in TCM treatment of ALI by regulating NLRP3 inflammasomes， discusses how NLRP3 inflammasomes participate in ALI， and summarizes the active ingredients， extracts， and compound prescriptions of TCM that regulate NLRP3 inflammasomes， aiming to provide new ideas for the clinical treatment of ALI and the development of relevant drugs.

ObjectiveTo investigate the analgesic effect of Tuina at the "Weizhong （BL 40）" on neuropathic pain in a rat model of chronic constriction injury （CCI） of the sciatic nerve and its potential central spinal mechanisms. MethodsThirty-two Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into four groups （8 rats in each group）， sham-operated group， model group， Tuina group， and blockade group. The CCI model was established in the model group， Tuina group， and the blockade group by ligating the sciatic nerve with catgut， while the sham-operated group underwent only sciatic nerve exposure without ligation. From postoperative day 4 to day 14， rats in the Tuina group and the blockade group received Tuina manipulation at the "Weizhong （BL 40）" using a dynamic pressure distribution measurement system （5 N pressure， 2 Hz frequency， 10 min per session， once daily）. The blockade group also received intraperitoneal injections of the microglial inhibitor minocycline （10 mg/kg） once daily. The sham-operated and the model group underwent the same handling and fixation as the Tuina group without actual Tuina. Mechanical withdrawal threshold （MWT） and paw withdrawal latency （PWL） were measured before surgery and on day 3， 7， 10， and 14 post-surgery. Transmission electron microscopy was used to evaluate sciatic nerve injury and repair， measuring axon diameter and total myelinated fiber diameter to calculate the g-ratio. Western Blotting was performed to detect the protein levels of ionized calcium-binding adapter molecule 1 （Iba-1）， CD206， CD68， interleukin-10 （IL-10）， and β-endorphin （β-EP） precursor pro-opiomelanocortin （POMC） in the ipsilateral spinal dorsal horn. ResultsCompared with the sham-operated group， the model group showed significantly reduced MWT and PWL on day 3， 7， 10， and 14 （P＜0.01）. Compared with the model group， the Tuina group and the blockade group showed increased MWT and PWL on day 10 and 14 （P＜0.05）. Compared with the Tuina group， the blockade group exhibited higher MWT on day 7， 10， and 14， and higher PWL on day 10 （P＜0.05）. Sciatic nerve pathological morphology revealed intact and well-structured myelin in the sham-operated group， while the model group exhibited myelin collapse， distortion， and myelin ovoid formation. The Tuina group displayed partially irregular myelin with occasional myelin collapse， whereas the blockade group exhibited partial myelin irregularities and phospholipid shedding. Compared with the sham-operated group， the model group showed a decreased g-ratio and increased levels of Iba-1 and CD68 in the spinal dorsal horn （P＜0.05 or P＜0.01）. Compared with the model group， the Tuina group and the blockade group exhibited an increased g-ratio and reduced Iba-1 and CD68 levels. Additionally， the Tuina group showed elevated levels of CD206， IL-10， and POMC， whereas the blockade group had decreased CD206 levels （P＜0.05）. ConclusionTuina at "Weizhong （BL 40）" alleviates neuropathic pain in CCI rats， potentially by regulating microglial activation in the spinal cord， inhibiting M1 polarization while promoting M2 polarization， and activating the IL-10/β-EP pathway to exert analgesic effects.

[Objective] To explore the relationship between neutrophil activation under cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) and the incidence of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CS-AKI). [Methods] This prospective cohort study enrolled adult patients who scheduled for cardiac surgery under CPB at West China Hospital between May 1, 2022 and March 31, 2023. The primary outcome was acute kidney injury (AKI). Blood samples (5 mL) were obtained from the central vein before surgery, at rewarming, at the end of CPB, and 24 hours after surgery. Neutrophils were labeled with CD11b, CD54 and other markers. To assess the effect of neutrophils activation on AKI, propensity score matching (PSM) was employed to equilibrate covariates between the groups. [Results] A total of 120 patients included into the study, and 17 (14.2%) developed AKI. Both CD11b⁺ and CD54⁺ neutrophils significantly increased during the rewarming phase and the increases were kept until 24 hours after surgery. During rewarming, the numbers of CD11b⁺ neutrophils were significantly higher in AKI compared to non-AKI (4.71×10⁹/L vs 3.31×10⁹/L, Z=-2.14, P<0.05). Similarly, the CD54⁺ neutrophils counts were also significantly higher in AKI than in non-AKI before surgery (2.75×10⁹/L vs 1.79×10⁹/L, Z=-2.99, P<0.05), during rewarming (3.12×10⁹/L vs 1.62×10⁹/L, Z=-4.34, P<0.05), and at the end of CPB (4.28×10⁹/L vs 2.14×10⁹/L, Z=-3.91, P<0.05). An analysis of 32 matched patients (16 in each group) revealed that CD11b⁺ and CD54⁺ neutrophil levels of AKI were 1.74 folds (4.83×10⁹/L vs 2.77×10⁹/L, Z=-2.72, P<0.05) and 2.34 folds (3.32×10⁹/L vs 1.42×10⁹/L, Z=-4.12, P<0.05), respectively, of non-AKI at rewarming phase. [Conclusion] Neutrophils are activated during CPB, and they can be identified by CD11b/CD54 markers. The activated neutrophils of AKI patients are approximately 2 folds of non-AKI during the rewarming phase, with disparity reached peak between groups during rewarming. These findings suggest the removal of 50% of activated neutrophils during the rewarming phase may be effective to reduce the risk of AKI.

Objective: To investigate the potential of conventional cranial computed tomography (CT) in assessing the early neurological deterioration(END), long-term prognosis, and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome elements during the acute phase in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods: This study included 101 patients with AIS onset within 24 h in the Emergency Department of Fangshan Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, from November 2019 to May 2021. To investigate the correlation between the relevant characteristics of the first conventional cranial CT in patients with AIS onset within 24 h and END, 90 d prognosis, and initial syndrome elements, the presence or absence of END, the 90 d prognosis (non-disabling outcome or functionally independent outcome), and the establishment of syndrome elements (internal fire, phlegm-dampness, blood stasis, qi deficiency, yin deficiency) were used as dependent variables and grouping criteria. Results: This study included 61 males and 40 females, with an age of (64.43±10.56) years. The time from onset to conventional cranial CT examination was 3.50 (1.50, 9.75) h. Among the patients, there were 70 cases (69.3%) of mild AIS, 30 cases (29.7%) of moderate AIS, and one case (1.0%) of severe AIS. Fifteen patients (14.9%) received intravenous thrombolysis. Among the 101 patients, six syndrome elements were observed within 24 h of onset: internal wind in 101 cases (100.0%), internal fire in 58 cases (57.4%), phlegm-dampness in 60 cases (59.4%), blood stasis in 67 cases (66.3%), qi deficiency in 39 cases (38.6%), and yin deficiency in 23 cases (22.8%). The incidence of END was higher in patients with lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (32.9%) than in those without such lesions (10.7%), showing a strong positive correlation with END occurrence (OR=4.082, P = 0.026). The incidence of END was higher in patients with lesions in the basal ganglia region (33.3%) and the carotid system blood supply area (32.8%) than in those without lesions in the basal ganglia region (15.8%) and the carotid system territory (14.7%), showing moderate positive correlations with END occurrence (OR=2.667, P =0.047; OR=2.836, P=0.044). The proportion of non-disabling outcomes was lower among patients with white matter degeneration (30.8%) and lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (52.1%) than in those without white matter degeneration (63.6%) and without such lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (78.6%), both showing strong negative correlations with the occurrence of non-disabling outcomes (OR=0.254, P=0.034; OR=0.296, P=0.015). Similarly, the proportion of functionally independent outcomes was lower among individuals with white matter degeneration (30.8%) and lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (64.4%) than in those without white matter degeneration (77.3%) and without such lesions in the contralateral cerebral hemisphere to the affected limb (89.3%), both also showing strong negative correlations with the occurrence of functionally independent outcomes (OR=0.131, P=0.001; OR=0.217, P=0.014). The incidence rates of internal fire, blood stasis, and yin deficiency syndrome elements were 66.7%, 73.0%, and 30.2%, respectively, among patients with lesions in the basal ganglia region, compared to 42.1%, 55.3%, and 10.5% among those without lesions in this region. The presence of lesions in the basal ganglia region showed moderate to strong positive correlations with internal fire and yin deficiency syndrome elements (OR=2.750, P=0.016; OR=3.670, P=0.028). Patients with lesions in the centrum semiovale and corona radiata regions (66.7%) had a higher incidence of qi deficiency than those without lesions in this region (33.7%), showing a strong positive correlation with the occurrence of qi deficiency (OR=3.931, P=0.022). No CT characteristics were found to be correlated with phlegm-dampness syndrome elements. Conclusion The first cranial CT in patients with AIS has potential application value in predicting disease progression, assessing prognosis, and diagnosing syndromes, which can provide physicians with diagnostic and treatment decisions to improve the long-term prognosis of patients with AIS.

Background: The genetic basis for hyperglycaemia in pregnancy remain unclear. This study aimed to uncover the genetic determinants of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and investigate their applications. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for GDM in Chinese women (464 cases and 1,217 controls), followed by de novo replications in an independent Chinese cohort (564 cases and 572 controls) and in silico replication in European (12,332 cases and 131,109 controls) and multi-ethnic populations (5,485 cases and 347,856 controls). A polygenic risk score (PRS) was derived based on the identified variants. Results: Using the genome-wide scan and candidate gene approaches, we identified four susceptibility loci for GDM. These included three previously reported loci for GDM and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at MTNR1B (rs7945617, odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.38 to 1.96]), CDKAL1 (rs7754840, OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.58), and INS-IGF2-KCNQ1 (rs2237897, OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79), as well as a novel genome-wide significant locus near TBR1-SLC4A10 (rs117781972, OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.61 to 2.62; Pmeta=7.6×10-9), which has not been previously reported in GWAS for T2DM or glycaemic traits. Moreover, we found that women with a high PRS (top quintile) had over threefold (95% CI, 2.30 to 4.09; Pmeta=3.1×10-14) and 71% (95% CI, 1.08 to 2.71; P=0.0220) higher risk for GDM and abnormal glucose tolerance post-pregnancy, respectively, compared to other individuals. Conclusion Our results indicate that the genetic architecture of glucose metabolism exhibits both similarities and differences between the pregnant and non-pregnant states. Integrating genetic information can facilitate identification of pregnant women at a higher risk of developing GDM or later diabetes.

Background: In acute and chronic renal inflammatory diseases, the activation of inflammatory cells is involved in the defect of erythropoietin (EPO) production. Ras guanine nucleotide-releasing protein-4 (RasGRP4) promotes renal inflammatory injury in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Our study aimed to investigate the role and mechanism of RasGRP4 in the production of renal EPO in diabetes. Methods: The degree of tissue injury was observed by pathological staining. Inflammatory cell infiltration was analyzed by immunohistochemical staining. Serum EPO levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and EPO production and renal interstitial fibrosis were analyzed by immunofluorescence. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and Western blotting were used to detect the expression of key inflammatory factors and the activation of signaling pathways. In vitro, the interaction between peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and C3H10T1/2 cells was investigated via cell coculture experiments. Results: RasGRP4 decreased the expression of hypoxia-inducible factor 2-alpha (HIF2A) via the ubiquitination–proteasome degradation pathway and promoted myofibroblastic transformation by activating critical inflammatory pathways, consequently reducing the production of EPO in T2DM mice. Conclusion RasGRP4 participates in the production of renal EPO in diabetic mice by affecting the secretion of proinflammatory cytokines in PBMCs, degrading HIF2A, and promoting the myofibroblastic transformation of C3H10T1/2 cells.