1.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
2.Expert consensus on the application of artificial intelligence in lung cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment (2026 edition)
Wenzhao ZHONG ; Haibo WANG ; Yi HU ; Hao ZHANG ; Jigang DAI ; Junqiang FAN ; Guibin QIAO ; Fan YANG ; Jian HU ; Fengwei TAN ; Xuening YANG ; Qiang PU ; Zihao CHEN ; Hongxia TIAN ; Lunxu LIU ; Hecheng LI ; Xiaolong YAN ; Zongyang YU ; Zhenbin QIU ; Yihua SUN ; Jing HU ; Yuhang SHI ; Zhifei GUO ; Peng ZHANG ; Kezhong CHEN ; Shugeng GAO ; Yilong WU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(06):848-856
With the continuous deepening of the concept of precision diagnosis and treatment for lung cancer, how to achieve higher efficiency and accuracy in the screening, diagnosis, and treatment pathways in clinical practice has become an important issue that urgently needs to be overcome. The current clinical difficulty lies in the fact that despite continuous advancements in imaging and molecular diagnostic technologies, there are still limitations in manual efficiency and subjective experience when it comes to massive data analysis and multi-scale feature extraction. Artificial intelligence (AI), especially algorithm systems based on deep learning, is an innovative technology capable of deeply empowering medical big data. This method utilizes algorithms such as convolutional neural networks, combined with radiomics, pathomics, and multi-modal data fusion analysis, demonstrating immense potential in early precise detection and benign-malignant differentiation of pulmonary nodules, digital pathological subtype recognition and non-invasive prediction of driver genes, precise 3D surgical planning and automatic delineation of radiotherapy target volumes, as well as dynamic risk warning during follow-up. This innovative technology provides a brand-new solution for realizing intelligent and individualized lung cancer diagnosis and treatment models. This consensus, based on the latest evidence from evidence-based medicine and combined with the development trends in the AI field and real-world clinical needs, was ultimately formed by gathering the consensus opinions of multidisciplinary experts in radiology, pathology, thoracic surgery, and other fields. The main content covers the application specifications of AI in the three core scenarios of lung cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment, the technical standards for data collection and algorithm validation, as well as the ethical and regulatory challenges faced at the current stage. It aims to clarify the applicable boundaries of AI as a clinical auxiliary decision support tool, providing scientific guidance and standardized exploration directions for peers currently engaged in or planning to carry out AI-assisted clinical diagnosis, treatment, and translation of lung cancer.
3.Incidence and influencing factors of atrial fibrillation in elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Jiajia LI ; Hui HU ; Jian ZHANG ; Ju ZHAO ; Qiumei YANG ; Qingqing TANG ; Ling YUAN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(4):86-90
Objective To analyze the incidence rate and risk factors of atrial fibrillation (AF) in elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods A total of 392 patients with COPD in the hospital were selected from December 2020 to December 2024. Patients39; data (medical history, echocardiographic data, etc.) were recorded. The incidence rate of AF in patients was recorded and the patients were grouped according to whether or not they developed AF. The differences were compared between the two groups, and the risk factors of AF occurrence in elderly patients with COPD were analyzed. Results Among the 392 patients with COPD, 127 cases (32.40%) met the diagnostic criteria of AF. There were statistically significant differences in age, pulmonary infection, heart failure, diabetes, smoking history, disease duration, LAD, severe renal insufficiency and coronary heart disease between the AF group and the non-AF group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that age, pulmonary infection, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, smoking history, disease course, LAD, severe renal insufficiency and coronary heart disease were all risk factors for elderly patients with COPD (OR=1.129, 4.246, 3.955, 4.125, 2.038, 1.112, 1.102, 4.397, and 3.865, P<0.05). Conclusion The incidence rate of AF is high in elderly patients with COPD. Age, pulmonary infection, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, smoking history, course of disease, LAD, severe renal insufficiency, and coronary heart disease are all risk factors for AF.
4.Influence of balloon post-dilatation on cardiac conduction in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement: A retrospective cohort study
Wuchao XUE ; Yang LIU ; Ping JIN ; Meng' ; en ZHAI ; Linhe LU ; Yan ZHU ; Jian YANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(12):1716-1621
Objective To analyze the impact of balloon post-dilation on cardiac conduction in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Methods From June 2021 to December 2022, patients with severe aortic valve stenosis or regurgitation who underwent TAVR surgery using domestically produced valves at Xijing Hospital, Air Force Military Medical University were selected. The occurrence of intraoperative and postoperative cardiac conduction block was recorded. According to whether balloon post-dilation was performed during the surgery, patients were divided into the post-dilation group and the non-post-dilation group. The baseline data, postoperative cardiac conduction block occurrence, and cardiac function of the two groups were analyzed. Results A total of 126 patients were included, including 52 males and 74 females, with an average age of (66.6±7.6) years. There were 30 patients in the post-dilation group and 96 patients in the non-post-dilation group. On the first day after TAVR, the average QRS intervals in the post-dilation group and the non-post-dilation group were (105.6±13.8) ms and (125.9±28.2) ms, respectively (P=0.017). At discharge, the average PR intervals in the two groups were (168.7±36.8) ms and (192.1±44.2) ms, respectively (P=0.024). At discharge, 9 (7.1%) patients developed new atrioventricular block, 5 (4.0%) patients developed new complete right bundle branch block, and 33 (26.2%) patients developed new complete left bundle branch block. During hospitalization, 2 (1.6%) patients received permanent cardiac pacemakers, both of whom were in the non-post-dilation group. There was no statistical difference in postoperative left ventricular structure and function between the two groups (P>0.05). Conclusion Postoperative expansion using domestically produced interventional valves for TAVR do not increase the incidence of early atrioventricular block and permanent cardiac pacemaker implantation after valve implantation, and there are no significant changes in cardiac structure and function in patients with conduction block in the short term after surgery.
5.Effects of LSS function deficiency on intestinal function in NAFLD model mice
Hongmei Bai ; Zhen Yang ; Weikang Hu ; Zihan Wang ; Wenjing Zhou ; Qingya He ; Jian Zhong ; Mingcong Li ; Li Liu ; Chaoyang Zhang ; Sumei Zhang ; Shengquan Zhang
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2025;60(9):1653-1660
Objective:
To investigate the effect of loss of function of lanosterol synthase( LSS) gene on intestinal function in a mouse model of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease( NAFLD) induced by a high-fat diet.
Methods:
LSS gene heterozygous knockout C57 mice ( LSS + / -) were established using the CRISRP / Cas9 system.After being fed a high-fat diet with 60% fat content for 6 months,the fat deposition in liver tissues was detected by HE and Oil red O staining,the morphological changes of small intestine tissue were detected by HE staining.The changes in total cholesterol content in intestinal tissue were detected by kits.The gastrointestinal motility function of mice was detected by phenol red paste.The intestinal permeability was detected by Evans blue staining,and the expression of LSS,tight junction protein ( Claudin) -1,Claudin-5,cluster of differentiation 36 ( CD36) ,and Niemann-Pick type C1-like 1 protein ( NPC1L1) proteins in small intestinal tissues were detected by Western blot.
Results :
The results of HE and Oil red O staining of liver tissues showed that liver fat deposition in LSS gene heterozygous knockout mice was lower than that in wild-type mice in the high-fat diet group.The total cholesterol content in intestinal tis- sue of LSS gene heterozygous knockout mice decreased ( P <0. 01) ,but no morphological differences were ob- served between the two groups of mice by HE staining of intestinal tissues.The gastrointestinal motility function of LSS gene heterozygous knockout mice did not show significant changes.The intestinal permeability of LSS gene het- erozygous knockout mice in the high-fat diet group decreased as detected by Evans blue ( P<0. 05) .The expres- sion levels of Claudin-5 protein in the intestinal tissue of LSS gene heterozygous knockout mice in the high-fat diet group increased ( P <0. 05 ) ,while the expression of LSS protein in the intestinal tissues of LSS heterozygous knockout mice decreased ( P <0. 05) .
Conclusion
In the NAFLD model induced by a high-fat diet,LSS gene heterozygous knockout reduces liver fat deposition induced by a high-fat diet and improves intestinal barrier function by regulating cholesterol metabolism in intestinal tissues and up-regulating the expression of Claudin-5.
6.Principles, technical specifications, and clinical application of lung watershed topography map 2.0: A thoracic surgery expert consensus (2024 version)
Wenzhao ZHONG ; Fan YANG ; Jian HU ; Fengwei TAN ; Xuening YANG ; Qiang PU ; Wei JIANG ; Deping ZHAO ; Hecheng LI ; Xiaolong YAN ; Lijie TAN ; Junqiang FAN ; Guibin QIAO ; Qiang NIE ; Mingqiang KANG ; Weibing WU ; Hao ZHANG ; Zhigang LI ; Zihao CHEN ; Shugeng GAO ; Yilong WU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(02):141-152
With the widespread adoption of low-dose CT screening and the extensive application of high-resolution CT, the detection rate of sub-centimeter lung nodules has significantly increased. How to scientifically manage these nodules while avoiding overtreatment and diagnostic delays has become an important clinical issue. Among them, lung nodules with a consolidation tumor ratio less than 0.25, dominated by ground-glass shadows, are particularly worthy of attention. The therapeutic challenge for this group is how to achieve precise and complete resection of nodules during surgery while maximizing the preservation of the patient39;s lung function. The "watershed topography map" is a new technology based on big data and artificial intelligence algorithms. This method uses Dicom data from conventional dose CT scans, combined with microscopic (22-24 levels) capillary network anatomical watershed features, to generate high-precision simulated natural segmentation planes of lung sub-segments through specific textures and forms. This technology forms fluorescent watershed boundaries on the lung surface, which highly fit the actual lung anatomical structure. By analyzing the adjacent relationship between the nodule and the watershed boundary, real-time, visually accurate positioning of the nodule can be achieved. This innovative technology provides a new solution for the intraoperative positioning and resection of lung nodules. This consensus was led by four major domestic societies, jointly with expert teams in related fields, oriented to clinical practical needs, referring to domestic and foreign guidelines and consensus, and finally formed after multiple rounds of consultation, discussion, and voting. The main content covers the theoretical basis of the "watershed topography map" technology, indications, operation procedures, surgical planning details, and postoperative evaluation standards, aiming to provide scientific guidance and exploration directions for clinical peers who are currently or plan to carry out lung nodule resection using the fluorescent microscope watershed analysis method.
7.Guidelines for vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients in China
Jian Zhang ; Jun Lin ; Weijie Zhang ; Xiaoming Ding ; Xiaopeng Hu ; Wujun Xue
Organ Transplantation 2025;16(2):177-190
In order to further standardize the vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients in China, the Branch of Organ Transplantation of Chinese Medical Association has organized experts in kidney transplantation and infectious diseases. Based on the "Vaccination of Solid Organ Transplant Candidates and Recipients: Guidelines from the American Society of Transplantation Infectious Diseases Community of Practice", and in combination with the clinical reality of infectious diseases and vaccination after organ transplantation in China, as well as referring to relevant recommendations from home and abroad in recent years, these guidelines are formulated from aspects such as epidemiology, types of vaccines, vaccination principles, target population, and specific vaccine administration. The "Guidelines for Vaccination of Kidney Transplant Candidates and Recipients in China" aims to provide theoretical reference for medical workers in the field of kidney transplantation in China, regarding the vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients. It is expected to better guide the vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients, reduce the risk of postoperative infection, and improve survival outcomes.
8.Prevalence and consultation behavior of childhood respiratory diseases in a hospital in Zhejiang Province in 2019-2021
Kaiyi YANG ; Guoqiang QI ; Zhiwen ZHU ; Jian HUANG ; Shasha HU ; Gang YU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2024;35(2):12-16
Objective To analyze the causes of changes in the prevalence of respiratory diseases and the reason for changes in medical visit behavior of children in Zhejiang Province during the winter and spring seasons of 2019-2021, and to provide important reference for the allocation of hospital resources, implementation of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, and epidemic prevention and control. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 256 937 outpatient medical records from January 23rd to April 23rd of each year from 2019 to 2021 at the Children's Hospital Affiliated to Zhejiang University School of Medicine. Statistical methods were used for data analysis. Results A total of 256 937 cases were selected in the present study, including 157 000 cases in 2019, 22 192 cases in 2020, and 77 745 cases in 2021. The number of patients to the Children's Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine from outside Hangzhou accounted for 41.74%, 14.36% , and 18.53% in 2019-2021, respectively. For 0~2 years old , 3~6 years old , and 7~14 years old groups , the percentages of patients with upper respiratory tract infections were 49.54%, 45.95%, and 46.74%, respectively ; with lower respiratory tract infections were 42.90% , 31.76% , and 22.95% ; with influenza were 2.23% , 3.15% and 4.09%; and with asthma were 1.37%, 5.08%, and 8.15%, respectively. Conclusion From 2019 to 2021, there have been significant changes in the total number of respiratory diseases in children, the proportion of disease types, and the proportion of children's geographical composition. It is necessary to continue to monitor children's respiratory diseases, grasp the dynamic changes in their medical visits in real time, adjust the hospital admission model , implement the graded treatment policy, and promote the prevention and control of respiratory diseases in children.
9.Multicenter expert recommendations on interventional valve-in-valve technology for mitral bioprosthetic valve destruction in China
Haibo ZHANG ; Xiangbin PAN ; Yingqiang GUO ; Lai WEI ; Jian YANG ; Daxin ZHOU ; Yongjian WU ; Xu MENG ; Liming LIU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2024;31(08):1090-1095
Mitral valve replacement is one of the most common heart valve surgeries in China. In recent years, with the increase in degenerative valve diseases, older patients, and the progress of anti-calcification technology of biological valves, the proportion of mitral valve biological valve replacement has been increasing year by year. After the damage of traditional mitral valve biological valves, re-operation of valve replacement with thoracotomy is required. However, the adhesion between the heart and sternum, as well as the damage caused by cardiopulmonary bypass and cardiac arrest, can cause significant trauma to elderly patients and those with multiple organ dysfunction, leading to increased mortality and complication rates. In recent years, interventional valve surgery, especially transcatheter valve-in-valve surgery, has developed rapidly. This procedure can correct the damaged mitral valve function without stopping the heart, but there are still many differences between its technical process and conventional aortic valve replacement surgery. Therefore, organizing and writing multicenter expert recommendations on the technical process of transcatheter valve-in-valve surgery for damaged mitral valve biological valves is of great significance for the training and promotion of this technology.
10.Evaluation specification of CT images for transapical transcatheter aortic valve replacement
Yanyan MA ; Yang LIU ; Jian YANG ; Yingqiang GUO
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2023;30(05):647-659
According to the needs of CT image evaluation for transapical transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), 20 clinical questions were proposed by the Delphi method, 15 questions were initially determined, and 12 clinical questions were summarized and determined by domestic experts. PubMed, Web of Science, Wanfang, and CNKI databases were searched by computer to collect the relevant literature from inception to November 2022, and finally 53 studies were included. Based on evidence-based study and evaluation experience, 3 meetings were held to give recommendations for preoperative CT data acquisition method, preoperative imaging evaluation of aortic root, imaging evaluation of transapical approach, preoperative auxiliary guidance of TAVR by CT images combined with 3D printing, and postoperative imaging evaluation of transapical TAVR, hoping to promote the standardized and successful development of transapical TAVR in China.


Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail