1.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
2.Mid- and long-term efficacy of mitral valve plasty versus replacement in the treatment of functional mitral regurgitation: A 10-year single-center outcome
Hanqing LIANG ; Qiaoli WAN ; Tao WEI ; Rui LI ; Zhipeng GUO ; Jian ZHANG ; Zongtao YIN ; Jinsong HAN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(01):108-113
Objective To compare the mid- and long-term clinical results of mitral valve plasty (MVP) and mitral valve replacement (MVR) in the treatment of functional mitral regurgitation (FMR). Methods Patients with FMR who underwent surgical treatment in the Department of Cardiovascular Surgery of the General Hospital of Northern Theater Command from 2012 to 2021 were collected. The patients who underwent MVP were divided into a MVP group, and those who underwent MVR into a MVR group. The clinical data and mid-term follow-up efficacy of two groups were compared. Results Finally 236 patients were included. There were 100 patients in the MVP group, including 53 males and 47 females, with an average age of (61.80±8.03) years. There were 136 patients in the MVR group, including 72 males and 64 females, with an average age of (61.29±8.97) years. There was no statistical difference in baseline data between the two groups (P>0.05). There was no statistical difference between the two groups in the extracorporeal circulation time, aortic occlusion time, postoperative hospital and ICU stay, intraoperative blood loss, or hospitalization death (P>0.05), but the time of mechanical ventilation in the MVP group was significantly shorter than that in the MVR group (P=0.022). The total follow-up rate was 100.0%, the longest follow-up was 10 years, and the average follow-up time was (3.60±2.55) years. There were statistical differences in the left atrial diameter, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, left ventricular end-systolic diameter and cardiac function between the two groups compared with those before surgery (P<0.05). The postoperative left ventricular ejection fraction in the MVP group was statistically higher than that before surgery (P=0.002), but there was no statistical difference in the MVR group before and after surgery (P=0.658). The left atrial diameter in the MVP group was reduced compared with the MVR group (P=0.026). The recurrence rate of mitral regurgitation in the MVP group was higher than that in the MVR group, and the difference was statistically significant (10.0% vs. 1.5%, P=0.003). There were 14 deaths in the MVP group and 19 in the MVR group. The cumulative survival rate (P=0.605) and cardiovascular events-free survival rate (P=0.875) were not statistically significant between the two groups by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Conclusion The safety, and mid- and long-term clinical efficacy of MVP in the treatment of FMR patients are better than MVR, and the left atrial and left ventricular diameters are statistically reduced, and cardiac function is statistically improved. However, the surgeon needs to be well aware of the indications for the MVP procedure to reduce the rate of mitral regurgitation recurrence.
3.Principles, technical specifications, and clinical application of lung watershed topography map 2.0: A thoracic surgery expert consensus (2024 version)
Wenzhao ZHONG ; Fan YANG ; Jian HU ; Fengwei TAN ; Xuening YANG ; Qiang PU ; Wei JIANG ; Deping ZHAO ; Hecheng LI ; Xiaolong YAN ; Lijie TAN ; Junqiang FAN ; Guibin QIAO ; Qiang NIE ; Mingqiang KANG ; Weibing WU ; Hao ZHANG ; Zhigang LI ; Zihao CHEN ; Shugeng GAO ; Yilong WU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(02):141-152
With the widespread adoption of low-dose CT screening and the extensive application of high-resolution CT, the detection rate of sub-centimeter lung nodules has significantly increased. How to scientifically manage these nodules while avoiding overtreatment and diagnostic delays has become an important clinical issue. Among them, lung nodules with a consolidation tumor ratio less than 0.25, dominated by ground-glass shadows, are particularly worthy of attention. The therapeutic challenge for this group is how to achieve precise and complete resection of nodules during surgery while maximizing the preservation of the patient39;s lung function. The "watershed topography map" is a new technology based on big data and artificial intelligence algorithms. This method uses Dicom data from conventional dose CT scans, combined with microscopic (22-24 levels) capillary network anatomical watershed features, to generate high-precision simulated natural segmentation planes of lung sub-segments through specific textures and forms. This technology forms fluorescent watershed boundaries on the lung surface, which highly fit the actual lung anatomical structure. By analyzing the adjacent relationship between the nodule and the watershed boundary, real-time, visually accurate positioning of the nodule can be achieved. This innovative technology provides a new solution for the intraoperative positioning and resection of lung nodules. This consensus was led by four major domestic societies, jointly with expert teams in related fields, oriented to clinical practical needs, referring to domestic and foreign guidelines and consensus, and finally formed after multiple rounds of consultation, discussion, and voting. The main content covers the theoretical basis of the "watershed topography map" technology, indications, operation procedures, surgical planning details, and postoperative evaluation standards, aiming to provide scientific guidance and exploration directions for clinical peers who are currently or plan to carry out lung nodule resection using the fluorescent microscope watershed analysis method.
4.Guidelines for vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients in China
Jian Zhang ; Jun Lin ; Weijie Zhang ; Xiaoming Ding ; Xiaopeng Hu ; Wujun Xue
Organ Transplantation 2025;16(2):177-190
In order to further standardize the vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients in China, the Branch of Organ Transplantation of Chinese Medical Association has organized experts in kidney transplantation and infectious diseases. Based on the "Vaccination of Solid Organ Transplant Candidates and Recipients: Guidelines from the American Society of Transplantation Infectious Diseases Community of Practice", and in combination with the clinical reality of infectious diseases and vaccination after organ transplantation in China, as well as referring to relevant recommendations from home and abroad in recent years, these guidelines are formulated from aspects such as epidemiology, types of vaccines, vaccination principles, target population, and specific vaccine administration. The "Guidelines for Vaccination of Kidney Transplant Candidates and Recipients in China" aims to provide theoretical reference for medical workers in the field of kidney transplantation in China, regarding the vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients. It is expected to better guide the vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients, reduce the risk of postoperative infection, and improve survival outcomes.
5.Influence of balloon post-dilatation on cardiac conduction in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement: A retrospective cohort study
Wuchao XUE ; Yang LIU ; Ping JIN ; Meng' ; en ZHAI ; Linhe LU ; Yan ZHU ; Jian YANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(12):1716-1621
Objective To analyze the impact of balloon post-dilation on cardiac conduction in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Methods From June 2021 to December 2022, patients with severe aortic valve stenosis or regurgitation who underwent TAVR surgery using domestically produced valves at Xijing Hospital, Air Force Military Medical University were selected. The occurrence of intraoperative and postoperative cardiac conduction block was recorded. According to whether balloon post-dilation was performed during the surgery, patients were divided into the post-dilation group and the non-post-dilation group. The baseline data, postoperative cardiac conduction block occurrence, and cardiac function of the two groups were analyzed. Results A total of 126 patients were included, including 52 males and 74 females, with an average age of (66.6±7.6) years. There were 30 patients in the post-dilation group and 96 patients in the non-post-dilation group. On the first day after TAVR, the average QRS intervals in the post-dilation group and the non-post-dilation group were (105.6±13.8) ms and (125.9±28.2) ms, respectively (P=0.017). At discharge, the average PR intervals in the two groups were (168.7±36.8) ms and (192.1±44.2) ms, respectively (P=0.024). At discharge, 9 (7.1%) patients developed new atrioventricular block, 5 (4.0%) patients developed new complete right bundle branch block, and 33 (26.2%) patients developed new complete left bundle branch block. During hospitalization, 2 (1.6%) patients received permanent cardiac pacemakers, both of whom were in the non-post-dilation group. There was no statistical difference in postoperative left ventricular structure and function between the two groups (P>0.05). Conclusion Postoperative expansion using domestically produced interventional valves for TAVR do not increase the incidence of early atrioventricular block and permanent cardiac pacemaker implantation after valve implantation, and there are no significant changes in cardiac structure and function in patients with conduction block in the short term after surgery.
6.Prevalence and consultation behavior of childhood respiratory diseases in a hospital in Zhejiang Province in 2019-2021
Kaiyi YANG ; Guoqiang QI ; Zhiwen ZHU ; Jian HUANG ; Shasha HU ; Gang YU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2024;35(2):12-16
Objective To analyze the causes of changes in the prevalence of respiratory diseases and the reason for changes in medical visit behavior of children in Zhejiang Province during the winter and spring seasons of 2019-2021, and to provide important reference for the allocation of hospital resources, implementation of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, and epidemic prevention and control. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 256 937 outpatient medical records from January 23rd to April 23rd of each year from 2019 to 2021 at the Children's Hospital Affiliated to Zhejiang University School of Medicine. Statistical methods were used for data analysis. Results A total of 256 937 cases were selected in the present study, including 157 000 cases in 2019, 22 192 cases in 2020, and 77 745 cases in 2021. The number of patients to the Children's Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine from outside Hangzhou accounted for 41.74%, 14.36% , and 18.53% in 2019-2021, respectively. For 0~2 years old , 3~6 years old , and 7~14 years old groups , the percentages of patients with upper respiratory tract infections were 49.54%, 45.95%, and 46.74%, respectively ; with lower respiratory tract infections were 42.90% , 31.76% , and 22.95% ; with influenza were 2.23% , 3.15% and 4.09%; and with asthma were 1.37%, 5.08%, and 8.15%, respectively. Conclusion From 2019 to 2021, there have been significant changes in the total number of respiratory diseases in children, the proportion of disease types, and the proportion of children's geographical composition. It is necessary to continue to monitor children's respiratory diseases, grasp the dynamic changes in their medical visits in real time, adjust the hospital admission model , implement the graded treatment policy, and promote the prevention and control of respiratory diseases in children.
7.Trends of heart disease death and prediction of life expectancy without cause of death in Qidong City in 1990-2019
Lulu DING ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Yuanyou XYU ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Jian ZHU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2024;35(2):30-33
Objective To analyze the trend of heart disease death and the life expectancy without cause of death in Qidong City, Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019, and to provide reference for the prevention and control of heart disease. Methods Data on heart disease deaths among residents in Qidong City from 1990 to 2019 were collected through the Qidong City Death Registration and Monitoring System. The crude mortality rate (CR) and Chinese age-standardized mortality rate (CASR), potential years of life loss (PYLL), average years of life loss (AYLL), potential life loss years rate (PYLLR), life expectancy, and life expectancy without cause of death were calculated, and the annual percentage change (APC) was used to analyze the trend of heart disease death. Using SAS9.2 software, the death trend prediction was conducted by the ARIMA model in time series analysis. Results From 1990 to 2019, 27,762 residents died of heart disease in Qidong City, with a CR of 81.20/100 000 and an APC of 3.734%. There were 12 358 deaths of heart disease in men, with a CR of 73.24/100 000 and an APC of 3.86%, while there were 15 404 deaths of heart disease in women, with a CR of 88.95/100 000 and an APC of 3.63%. CR showed an upward trend (all P < 0.001). The PYLL for heart disease was 66 192.00 person-years, the AYLL was 13.23 person-years, and the PYLLR was 2.16‰. The life expectancy loss from heart disease was gradually increasing: 0.89 years in 1990 to 1.85 years in 2019, with an APC of 0.405% (P<0.001, a statistically significant trend). The prediction results showed that in 2029, the life expectancy after heart disease would reach 88.17 years. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the crude mortality rate of heart disease in Qidong City has showed an increasing trend, leading to an increasing loss of life due to heart disease year by year. The mortality rate and life loss of heart disease in women are higher than those in men. Targeted intervention measures should be further adopted to reduce the mortality rate of heart disease among residents in Qidong.
8.Relationship between zinc finger protein A20, CTGF and FibroScan and fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients
Song ZHANG ; Zilong ZHAO ; Qian HU ; Jian LI ; Xiaojing WANG ; Huijie GENG ; Haiyan KANG ; Dianxing SUN ; Zhengrong GUO
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2024;35(3):133-136
Objective Studies on the expression and location of zinc finger protein A20 (A20) and connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) in liver tissues of patients with chronic hepatitis B were conducted, and the relationship between them and liver fibrosis was determined by FibroScan. Methods Studies on A20 and CTGF in liver tissues of 160 patients with chronic hepatitis B were conducted in accordance with the stage of pathological fibrosis and inflammation of the liver, and quantitative immunohistochemistry test was conducted, and statistical analysis was conducted by FibroScan. Results The expressions of A20 and CTGF in liver tissues increased with the aggravation of liver pathological fibrosis and inflammation, and there were significant differences between each stage and the control group (P<0.05), and there were significant differences between adjacent groups (P<0.05). Studies have shown that FibroScan increases along with pathological fibrosis and inflammation in the liver. There are significant differences between the stage and the control group (P<0.05), and no significant differences between the adjacent groups (P>0.05). There was positive correlation between liver A20 and CTGF, r=0.796 (P<0.05). Conclusions In patients with chronic hepatitis B, A20, CTGF and FibroScan are positively correlated with the degree of liver fibrosis, and A20 and CTGF are also positively correlated with the degree of liver inflammation, which can be used as indicators to evaluate the degree of liver inflammation and fibrosis, and further guide the anti-inflammatory and anti-fibrosis treatment of patients.
9.Additional tricuspid valve annuloplasty versus isolated closure for atrial septal defect with secondary moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation: A propensity score matching study
Tianyu CHEN ; Xiaobing LIU ; Juemin YU ; Qiushi REN ; Hailong QIU ; Shusheng WEN ; Jian ZHUANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2024;31(04):519-527
Objective To compare the efficacy of additional tricuspid valve annuloplasty (TVP) and isolated closure for atrial septal defect (ASD) with moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation (TR). Methods Clinical data of the patients diagnosed with ASD combined with secondary moderate to severe TR and treated in our hospital from January 2009 to June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into a TVP group and a non-TVP group based on whether TVP was performed simultaneously. The baseline data of two groups were matched with a ratio of 1∶1 propensity score. Results A total of 32 pairs from 257 patients were successfully matched. In the TVP group, there were 24 females and 8 males with an average age of 44.0±13.1 years. In the non-TVP group, there were 28 females and 4 males with an average age of 44.5±11.6 years. The TR area and estimated pulmonary artery pressure in the two groups were significantly decreased compared with preoperation (all P<0.001). The TR area (P=0.001) and the estimated pulmonary artery pressure (P=0.002) were decreased more significantly in the TVP group than those in the non-TVP group. Linear regression analysis showed that age and preoperative TR area had a positive correlation with TR area at follow-up (β=0.045 and 0.259, respectively, both P<0.05), while additional TVP had a negative correlation (β=–1.542, P=0.001). Conclusion Additional TVP can significantly reduce the TR area and pulmonary artery pressure, and elderly patients with severe TR before surgery should actively receive TVP.
10.Pulmonary artery reconstruction to repair infant isolated unilateral absence of pulmonary artery: A retrospective cohort study in a single center
Xinjian YAN ; Jimei CHEN ; Jianzheng CEN ; Shusheng WEN ; Gang XU ; Hujun CUI ; Xiaobing LIU ; Jian ZHUANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2024;31(04):600-605
Objective To confirm the changes of pulmonary artery pressure, neo pulmonary artery stenosis and reoperation in children with unilateral absence of pulmonary artery (UAPA) undergoing pulmonary artery reconstruction. Methods The clinical data of the infants with UAPA undergoing pulmonary artery reconstruction in our hospital from February 19, 2019 to April 15, 2021 were analyzed. Changes in pulmonary artery pressure, neo pulmonary artery stenosis and reoperation were followed up. Results Finally 5 patients were collected, including 4 males and 1 female. The operation age ranged from 13 days to 2.7 years. Cardiac contrast-enhanced CT scans were performed in all children, and 2 patients underwent pulmonary vein wedge angiography to confirm the diagnosis and preoperative evaluation. Preoperative transthoracic echocardiography and intraoperative direct pulmonary arterial pressure measurement indicated that all 5 children had pulmonary hypertension, with a mean pulmonary arterial pressure of 31.3±16.0 mm Hg. Pulmonary arterial pressure decreased immediately after pulmonary artery reconstruction to 16.8±4.2 mm Hg. The mean follow-up time was 18.9±4.7 months. All 5 patients survived during the follow-up period, and 1 patient had neo pulmonary artery stenosis or even occlusion and was re-operated. Conclusion Pulmonary artery reconstruction can effectively alleviate the pulmonary hypertension in children with UAPA. The patency of the neo pulmonary artery should be closely followed up after surgery, and re-pulmonary angioplasty should be performed if necessary.


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