1.Multicenter machine learning-based construction of a model for predicting potential organ donors and validation with decision curve analysis
Xu WANG ; Wenxiu LI ; Fenghua WANG ; Shuli WU ; Dong JIA ; Xin GE ; Zhihua SHAN ; Tongzuo LI
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):106-115
Objective To evaluate the predictive value of different machine learning models constructed in a multicenter environment for potential organ donors and verify their clinical application feasibility. Methods The study included 2 000 inpatients admitted to five domestic tertiary hospitals from January 2020 to December 2023, who met the criteria for potential organ donation assessment. They were randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set (7∶3). Another 300 similar patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from January 2024 to April 2025 were included as an external validation set. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and F1-score of three models were compared, and the consistency of the potential organ donor determination process was tested. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictive factors of potential organ donors. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to verify the resource efficiency of each model, and the threshold interval and intervention balance point were assessed. Results Apart from age, there were no significant differences in other basic characteristics among the centers (all P>0.05). The consistency of the potential organ donor determination process among researchers in each center was good [all 95% confidence interval (CI) lower limits >0]. In the internal validation set, the XGBoost model had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.94) and the best calibration (P=0.441, Brier score 0.099). In the external validation set, the XGBoost model also had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94), outperforming logistic regression and random forest models. Multivariate logistic regression showed that mechanical ventilation had the greatest impact (odds ratio=2.06, 95% CI 1.54-2.76, P<0.001). DCA indicated that the XGBoost model had the highest net benefit in the threshold interval of 0.2-0.6. The “treat all” strategy only had a slight advantage at extremely low thresholds. The recommended threshold interval, which balances intervention costs and clinical benefits, considers ≥50% positive predictive value (PPV) and ≤50 referrals per 100 high-risk patients. Conclusions The XGBoost model established in a multicenter environment is accurate and well-calibrated in predicting potential organ donors. Combined with DCA, it may effectively guide the timing of clinical interventions and resource allocation, providing new ideas for the assessment and management of organ donation after brain death.
2.Construction and effectiveness evaluation of a closed-loop management system for dispensed oral drugs in the inpatient pharmacy based on SWOT analysis
Jia WANG ; Weihong GE ; Ruijuan XU ; Shanshan QIAN ; Xuemin SONG ; Xiangling SHENG ; Bin WU ; Li LI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(4):401-406
OBJECTIVE To improve the efficiency and quality of dispensed oral drug management in the inpatient pharmacy, and ensure the safety of drug use in patients. METHODS SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunity, threat) analysis method was used to analyze the internal strengths and weaknesses, as well as the external opportunities and threats in the construction of a closed-loop management system for dispensed oral drugs in the inpatient pharmacy of our hospital, and propose improvement strategies. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS A refined, full-process, closed-loop traceability management system for dispensed oral drugs in the inpatient pharmacies was successfully established, which is traceable in origin, trackable in destination, and accountable in responsibility. After the application of this system, the registration rate of dispensed drug information and the correctness rate of registration content both reached 100%. The proportion of overdue drug varieties in the same period of 2024 decreased by 77.78% compared to March 2020, the inventory volume decreased by 29.50% compared to the first quarter of 2020, the per-bed medication volume decreased by 32.14% compared to the first quarter of 2020; the average workload per post in the same period of 2023 increased by 49.09% compared to 2019, the dispensing accuracy rate reached 100%, and the improvement rate of quality control problem increased by 25.25% compared to 2021. This system effectively improves the safety and accuracy of dispensed oral drug management in the inpatient pharmacy.
3.Comparison of the effects of three time series models in predicting the trend of erythrocyte blood demand
Yajuan QIU ; Jianping ZHANG ; Jia LUO ; Peilin LI ; Mengzhuo LUO ; Qiongying LI ; Ge LIU ; Qing LEI ; Kai LIAO
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(2):257-262
[Objective] To analyse and predict the tendencies of using erythrocyte blood in Changsha based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, long short-term memory (LSTM) and ARIMA-LSTM combination model, so as to provide reliable basis for designing a feasible and effective blood inventory management strategy. [Methods] The data of erythrocyte usage from hospitals in Changsha between January 2012 and December 2023 were collected, and ARIMA model, LSTM model and ARIMA-LSTM combination model were established. The actual erythrocyte consumption from January to May 2024 were used to assess and verify the prediction effect of the models. The extrapolation prediction accuracy of the models were tested using two evaluation indicators: mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE), and then the prediction performance of the model was compared. [Results] The RMSE of LSTM model, optimal model ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 and ARIMA-LSTM combination model were respectively 5 206.66, 3 096.43 and 2 745.75, and the MAPE were 18.78%,11.54% and 9.76% respectively, which indicated that the ARIMA-LSTM combination model was more accurate than the ARIMA model and LSTM model, and the prediction results was basically consistent with the actual situation. [Conclusion] The ARIMA-LSTM model can better predict the clinical erythrocyte consumption in Changsha in the short term.
4.Aldehyde Dehydrogenase 2 Gene Mutation May Reduce the Risk of Rupture of Intracranial Aneurysm in Chinese Han Population
Xiheng CHEN ; Siming GUI ; Dachao WEI ; Dingwei DENG ; Yudi TANG ; Jian LV ; Wei YOU ; Jia JIANG ; Jun LIN ; Huijian GE ; Peng LIU ; Yuhua JIANG ; Lixin MA ; Yunci WANG ; Ming LV ; Youxiang LI
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(2):237-249
Background:
and Purpose Ruptured intracranial aneurysms (RIA) are associated with a mortality rate of up to 40% in the Chinese population, highlighting the critical need for targeted treatment interventions for at-risk individuals. Although the impact of aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene mutations on susceptibility to intracranial aneurysms (IA) is well documented, the potential connection between ALDH2 rs671 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and RIA remains unexplored. Given the increased prevalence of ALDH2 gene mutations among Chinese Han individuals, it is clinically relevant to investigate the link between ALDH2 rs671 SNP and IA rupture.
Methods:
A prospective study was conducted on 546 patients diagnosed with IA to investigate the association between ALDH2 rs671 SNP and the risk of IA rupture.
Results:
The ALDH2 rs671 SNP (ALDH2*2) was significantly more prevalent in patients with unruptured IA (UIA) than in those with RIA (32.56% vs. 18.58%, P=0.004). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that people with the ALDH2 mutation (ALDH2*1/*2 and ALDH2*2/*2 gene type) had a significantly reduced odds ratio (OR=0.49; 95% confidence level [CI] 0.27–0.88; P=0.018) for RIAs. Age-specific subgroup analysis indicated that the ALDH2 mutation provided a stronger protective effect in individuals aged 60 years and above with IA compared to those under 60 years old (OR=0.38 vs. OR=0.52, both P<0.05).
Conclusion
The incidence of RIA was significantly higher in individuals with a normal ALDH2 gene (ALDH2*1/*1) than in those with an ALDH2 rs671 SNP (ALDH2*1/*2 or ALDH2*2/*2). ALDH2 rs671 SNP may serve as a protective factor against RIA in the Chinese Han population.
5.Aldehyde Dehydrogenase 2 Gene Mutation May Reduce the Risk of Rupture of Intracranial Aneurysm in Chinese Han Population
Xiheng CHEN ; Siming GUI ; Dachao WEI ; Dingwei DENG ; Yudi TANG ; Jian LV ; Wei YOU ; Jia JIANG ; Jun LIN ; Huijian GE ; Peng LIU ; Yuhua JIANG ; Lixin MA ; Yunci WANG ; Ming LV ; Youxiang LI
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(2):237-249
Background:
and Purpose Ruptured intracranial aneurysms (RIA) are associated with a mortality rate of up to 40% in the Chinese population, highlighting the critical need for targeted treatment interventions for at-risk individuals. Although the impact of aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene mutations on susceptibility to intracranial aneurysms (IA) is well documented, the potential connection between ALDH2 rs671 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and RIA remains unexplored. Given the increased prevalence of ALDH2 gene mutations among Chinese Han individuals, it is clinically relevant to investigate the link between ALDH2 rs671 SNP and IA rupture.
Methods:
A prospective study was conducted on 546 patients diagnosed with IA to investigate the association between ALDH2 rs671 SNP and the risk of IA rupture.
Results:
The ALDH2 rs671 SNP (ALDH2*2) was significantly more prevalent in patients with unruptured IA (UIA) than in those with RIA (32.56% vs. 18.58%, P=0.004). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that people with the ALDH2 mutation (ALDH2*1/*2 and ALDH2*2/*2 gene type) had a significantly reduced odds ratio (OR=0.49; 95% confidence level [CI] 0.27–0.88; P=0.018) for RIAs. Age-specific subgroup analysis indicated that the ALDH2 mutation provided a stronger protective effect in individuals aged 60 years and above with IA compared to those under 60 years old (OR=0.38 vs. OR=0.52, both P<0.05).
Conclusion
The incidence of RIA was significantly higher in individuals with a normal ALDH2 gene (ALDH2*1/*1) than in those with an ALDH2 rs671 SNP (ALDH2*1/*2 or ALDH2*2/*2). ALDH2 rs671 SNP may serve as a protective factor against RIA in the Chinese Han population.
6.Aldehyde Dehydrogenase 2 Gene Mutation May Reduce the Risk of Rupture of Intracranial Aneurysm in Chinese Han Population
Xiheng CHEN ; Siming GUI ; Dachao WEI ; Dingwei DENG ; Yudi TANG ; Jian LV ; Wei YOU ; Jia JIANG ; Jun LIN ; Huijian GE ; Peng LIU ; Yuhua JIANG ; Lixin MA ; Yunci WANG ; Ming LV ; Youxiang LI
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(2):237-249
Background:
and Purpose Ruptured intracranial aneurysms (RIA) are associated with a mortality rate of up to 40% in the Chinese population, highlighting the critical need for targeted treatment interventions for at-risk individuals. Although the impact of aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene mutations on susceptibility to intracranial aneurysms (IA) is well documented, the potential connection between ALDH2 rs671 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and RIA remains unexplored. Given the increased prevalence of ALDH2 gene mutations among Chinese Han individuals, it is clinically relevant to investigate the link between ALDH2 rs671 SNP and IA rupture.
Methods:
A prospective study was conducted on 546 patients diagnosed with IA to investigate the association between ALDH2 rs671 SNP and the risk of IA rupture.
Results:
The ALDH2 rs671 SNP (ALDH2*2) was significantly more prevalent in patients with unruptured IA (UIA) than in those with RIA (32.56% vs. 18.58%, P=0.004). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that people with the ALDH2 mutation (ALDH2*1/*2 and ALDH2*2/*2 gene type) had a significantly reduced odds ratio (OR=0.49; 95% confidence level [CI] 0.27–0.88; P=0.018) for RIAs. Age-specific subgroup analysis indicated that the ALDH2 mutation provided a stronger protective effect in individuals aged 60 years and above with IA compared to those under 60 years old (OR=0.38 vs. OR=0.52, both P<0.05).
Conclusion
The incidence of RIA was significantly higher in individuals with a normal ALDH2 gene (ALDH2*1/*1) than in those with an ALDH2 rs671 SNP (ALDH2*1/*2 or ALDH2*2/*2). ALDH2 rs671 SNP may serve as a protective factor against RIA in the Chinese Han population.
7.Mediating effect of activities of daily living between pain and depressive symptoms in Chinese elderly
Shan JIANG ; Huaiju GE ; Wenyu SU ; Shihong DONG ; Weimin GUAN ; Qing YU ; Huiyu JIA ; Wenjing CHANG ; Jinglei ZHANG ; Kang ZHANG ; Guifeng MA ; Wentao WEI
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(4):12-16
Objective To explore the mediating role of activities of daily living (ADL) in pain and depressive symptoms in the elderly in China. Methods Utilizing the data from 2020 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, 4403 Chinese elderly individuals aged ≥ 60 years old were selected as the research subjects. Depression Scale (CES-D 10) of the Center for Epidemiological Survey and ADL scale were used in the study. The PROCESS4.1 macro was used to test the mediating effect of daily living activities between pain and depressive symptoms, and the Bootstrap method was applied for verification of the mediating variables. Results A total of 2368 cases of depressive symptoms were detected in the elderly in China, with a detection rate of 53.78%. Pain was positively correlated with depressive symptoms (r=0.27, P<0.01), and activities of daily living were negatively correlated with pain and depressive symptoms (r=-0.27, -0.337, P<0.01). The results showed that the total effect value of pain on depressive symptoms was 0.33, the direct effect value was 0.24, and the mediating effect value of daily living activities was 0.09, accounting for 27.27%. Conclusion Pain and activities of daily living are important factors influencing depressive symptoms in the elderly, and activities of daily living play a partial mediating role in the relationship between pain and depressive symptoms in the elderly.
8.Reflection and recommendation on the current status of acupuncture direction selection and reporting.
Hongbo JIA ; Yibing LI ; Kangchen LEI ; Wenyi GE ; Wei LIU ; Songjiao LI ; Shuwen SHI ; Yutong DONG ; Congcong MA ; Li LI ; Jian LIU ; Xiaonong FAN
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2025;45(8):1187-1194
The randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarding acupuncture direction published from January 1st, 2013, to November 7th, 2023 were searched in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform, and VIP Chinese Journal Database. As a result, 21 RCTs were included. The problems identified included conceptual misunderstandings regarding acupuncture direction, incomplete selection strategies, confounding research factors, and inaccuracies in reporting. Based on the findings, four strategic approaches for enhancing therapeutic efficacy through acupuncture direction were summarized: aligning needle direction with the meridian pathway, directing the needle toward the lesion site, orienting the needle toward adjacent acupoints, and targeting special anatomical structures. Two additional strategies were proposed for optimizing the procedure: simplifying acupuncture operations and directing the needle toward safe anatomical sites. Recommendations were made to improve the rationality of research factor settings and the completeness of acupuncture operation reporting. Furthermore, three methods for reporting acupuncture direction were discussed: reporting the tip-pointed position, reporting the insertion angle and orientation, and reporting azimuth and polar angles, aiming to promote greater standardization and completeness in acupuncture practice and reporting.
Acupuncture Therapy/standards*
;
Humans
;
Acupuncture Points
;
Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
;
Meridians
9.Temporal trend in mortality due to congenital heart disease in China from 2008 to 2021.
Youping TIAN ; Xiaojing HU ; Qing GU ; Miao YANG ; Pin JIA ; Xiaojing MA ; Xiaoling GE ; Quming ZHAO ; Fang LIU ; Ming YE ; Weili YAN ; Guoying HUANG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(6):693-701
BACKGROUND:
Congenital heart disease (CHD) is a leading cause of birth defect-related mortality. However, more recent CHD mortality data for China are lacking. Additionally, limited studies have evaluated sex, rural-urban, and region-specific disparities of CHD mortality in China.
METHODS:
We designed a population-based study using data from the Dataset of National Mortality Surveillance in China between 2008 and 2021. We calculated age-adjusted CHD mortality using the sixth census data of China in 2010 as the standard population. We assessed the temporal trends in CHD mortality by age, sex, area, and region from 2008 to 2021 using the joinpoint regression model.
RESULTS:
From 2008 to 2021, 33,534 deaths were attributed to CHD. The period witnessed a two-fold decrease in the age-adjusted CHD mortality from 1.61 to 0.76 per 100,000 persons (average annual percent change [AAPC] = -5.90%). Females tended to have lower age-adjusted CHD mortality than males, but with a similar decline rate from 2008 to 2021 (females: AAPC = -6.15%; males: AAPC = -5.84%). Similar AAPC values were observed among people living in urban (AAPC = -6.64%) and rural (AAPC = -6.12%) areas. Eastern regions experienced a more pronounced decrease in the age-adjusted CHD mortality (AAPC = -7.86%) than central (AAPC = -5.83%) and western regions (AAPC = -3.71%) between 2008 and 2021. Approximately half of the deaths (46.19%) due to CHD occurred during infancy. The CHD mortality rates in 2021 were lower than those in 2008 for people aged 0-39 years, with the largest decrease observed among children aged 1-4 years (AAPC = -8.26%), followed by infants (AAPC = -7.01%).
CONCLUSIONS
CHD mortality in China has dramatically decreased from 2008 to 2021. The slower decrease in CHD mortality in the central and western regions than in the eastern regions suggested that public health policymakers should pay more attention to health resources and health education for central and western regions.
Humans
;
Heart Defects, Congenital/mortality*
;
Male
;
Female
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Infant
;
Child, Preschool
;
Adult
;
Child
;
Adolescent
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Middle Aged
;
Young Adult
;
Aged
;
Rural Population
10.Salvianolate injection ameliorates cardiomyopathy by regulating autophagic flux through miR-30a/becn1 axis in zebrafish.
Jianxuan LI ; Yang ZHANG ; Zhi ZUO ; Zhenzhong ZHANG ; Ying WANG ; Shufu CHANG ; Jia HUANG ; Yuxiang DAI ; Junbo GE
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(20):2604-2614
BACKGROUND:
Salvianolate is a compound mainly composed of salvia magnesium acetate, which is extracted from the Chinese herb Salvia miltiorrhiza . In recent years, salvianolate injection has been widely used in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, but the mechanism of how it can alleviate cardiotoxicity remains unclear.
METHODS:
The cardiac injury model was constructed by treatment with doxorubicin (Dox) or azithromycin (Azi) in zebrafish larvae. Heart phenotype, heart rate, and cardiomyocyte apoptosis were observed in the study. RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) analysis was used to explore the underlying mechanism of salvianolate treatment. Moreover, cardiomyocyte autophagy was assessed by in situ imaging. In addition, the miR-30a/becn1 axis regulation by salvianolate was further investigated.
RESULTS:
Salvianolate treatment reduced the proportion of pericardial edema, recovered heart rate, and inhibited cardiomyocyte apoptosis in Dox/Azi-administered zebrafish larvae. Mechanistically, salvianolate regulated the lysosomal pathway and promoted autophagic flux in zebrafish cardiomyocytes. The expression level of becn1 was increased in Dox-induced myocardial tissue injury after salvianolate administration; overexpression of becn1 in cardiomyocytes alleviated the Dox/Azi-induced cardiac injury and promoted autophagic flux in cardiomyocytes, while becn1 knockdown blocked the effects of salvianolate. In addition, miR-30a, negatively regulated by salvianolate, partially inhibited the cardiac amelioration of salvianolate by targeting becn1 directly.
CONCLUSION
This study has proved that salvianolate reduces cardiomyopathy by regulating autophagic flux through the miR-30a/becn1 axis in zebrafish and is a potential drug for adjunctive Dox/Azi therapy.
Animals
;
Zebrafish
;
MicroRNAs/genetics*
;
Autophagy/drug effects*
;
Myocytes, Cardiac/metabolism*
;
Cardiomyopathies/metabolism*
;
Beclin-1/genetics*
;
Apoptosis/drug effects*
;
Plant Extracts/therapeutic use*
;
Doxorubicin


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