ObjectiveTo observe the clinical efficacy and safety of Yuyin Lidan granules （YYLD） in preventing the recurrence of common bile duct stones （CBDS） in patients with liver and gallbladder dampness-heat syndrome following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography （ERCP）. MethodsThis randomized， parallel， controlled trial enrolled postoperative CBDS-ERCP patients who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Sixty-four patients were randomly assigned to an observation group or a control group， with 32 cases in each. Both groups received conventional Western medical treatment after ERCP， while the observation group additionally received YYLD for 8 weeks. The follow-up period lasted for 1 year. The efficacy indicators included bile bilirubin levels， traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） syndrome scores， clinical efficacy rate， pancreatitis and inflammation markers， postoperative liver function， and CBDS recurrence rate at 1-year follow-up， which were used to jointly evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of both groups. ResultsA total of 56 patients completed the study and were included in the final analysis， i.e.， 29 in the observation group and 27 in the control group. Baseline characteristics were comparable between the two groups. Compared with pre-treatment and with the control group after treatment， the bile bilirubin level in the observation group significantly decreased （P<0.05）. After treatment， the clinical cure and marked improvement rates were higher in the observation group than in the control group， showing a statistically significant difference in overall clinical efficacy （P<0.05）. Compared with pre-treatment， the primary and secondary symptoms in the observation group， as well as the primary symptom and the secondary symptom of nausea and vomiting in the control group （weeks 4 and 8）， were significantly reduced （P<0.05）. Compared with the control group after treatment， the observation group showed significant reductions in the primary symptom of loose stools/constipation （day 5 and week 4） and in three secondary symptoms， i.e.， bitter taste and sticky dry mouth， abdominal distension and poor appetite （throughout the treatment period）， and general heaviness and fatigue （day 5 and week 4）， with statistical differences （P<0.05）. Compared with pre-treatment， both groups showed decreased lipase and urinary amylase levels （P<0.05）. However， no significant between-group differences were observed in pancreatitis or inflammation-related indices after treatment. Compared with pre-treatment， all liver function indicators in the observation group and alanine aminotransferase （ ALT ）， γ-glutamyl transferase （ γ-GT ）， alkaline phosphatase （ALP）， and conjugated bilirubin in the control group significantly decreased at weeks 4 and 8 （P<0.05）. Compared with the control group after treatment， only serum total bilirubin and unconjugated bilirubin were significantly reduced in the observation group during the treatment period （P<0.05）. ConclusionYYLD combined with conventional Western medical treatment can effectively regulate bilirubin metabolism （in bile and serum）， improve TCM clinical symptoms， and prevent CBDS recurrence after ERCP in patients with liver and gallbladder dampness-heat syndrome. This regimen is safe and effective and is worthy of further clinical research and promotion.

ObjectiveTo identify the primary hemostatic active components in Moutan Cortex Carbonisata（MCC） based on the spectrum-effect relationship between the fingerprint and hemostatic efficacy， thereby providing a basis for characterizing its active constituents. MethodsUltra-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-electrostatic field orbitrap high-resolution mass spectrometry（UPLC-Q-Orbitrap MS/MS） was employed to establish the fingerprint profiles of 16 batches of MCC aqueous extracts and identify the common peaks. Activated partial thromboplastin time（APTT）， an in vitro coagulation activity indicator， was measured for the 16 batches of samples using a semi-automated coagulometer. Grey relational analysis（GRA）， Pearson correlation analysis， and partial least squares regression（PLSR） were comprehensively applied to screen potential hemostatic active components. For the identified active components， multi-dimensional pharmacological validation was conducted through in vitro coagulation assays measuring APTT， prothrombin time（PT）， and thrombin time（TT）， evaluation of hemostasis rate using a zebrafish cerebral hemorrhage model， and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction（Real-time PCR） detection of coagulation factor X（FⅩ） mRNA expression level. ResultsThe UPLC fingerprint of the aqueous extract of MCC was successfully established， identifying 12 common peaks. Among these， 9 chemical components were subsequently characterized using UPLC-Q-Orbitrap MS. Comprehensive application of GRA， Pearson correlation analysis， and PLSR analysis identified 5-hydroxymethylfurfural（5-HMF）， gallic acid， 1-O-galloylglucose， and p-hydroxybenzoic acid as key hemostatic active constituents in MCC. In vitro coagulation assays confirmed that all four active components significantly shortened APTT and PT（P<0.05， P<0.01）. The zebrafish cerebral hemorrhage model further validated their in vivo hemostatic efficacy， with each component significantly reducing hemorrhage area（P<0.05， P<0.01）， yielding hemostasis rates of 31.20% for 5-HMF， 68.85% for gallic acid， 45.45% for 1-O-galloylglucose， and 45.60% for p-hydroxybenzoic acid， and demonstrating overall concentration-dependent effects. Real-time PCR analysis demonstrated that all active components significantly upregulated FⅩ mRNA expression（P<0.05， P<0.01）， synergistically enhancing hemostasis. ConclusionBy integrating spectrum-effect relationship analysis and multi-dimensional efficacy validation， this study identified four hemostatic constituents from MCC， providing a scientific basis for elucidating its hemostatic material basis.

ObjectiveTo investigate the incidence and influencing factors of posttraumatic stress disorder （PTSD） three months after a traffic accident， and to explore the role of social support and coping strategies. MethodsA total of 117 individuals exposed to trauma following road traffic accidents were recruited. General demographic and clinical information was collected within one week， and the hamilton anxiety rating scale （HAMA）， the hamilton depression rating scale-24 （HAMD-24）， the social support rating scale （SSRS）， and the simplified coping style questionnaire （SCSQ） were administered. A 3-month follow-up was subsequently conducted， during which PTSD symptoms were assessed using the post-traumatic stress disorder checklist for DSM-5 （PCL-5）. Participants were divided into a PTSD group and a non-PTSD group according to whether PTSD occurred. Between-group comparisons were performed using the Mann-Whitney U non-parametric test or the χ² test， as appropriate. Spearman correlation analysis was used to examine the associations between general characteristics and PCL-5 scores. Binary Logistic regression was applied to identify factors influencing PTSD， and receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve analysis was conducted to evaluate the diagnostic value of the SCSQ and SSRS. ResultsDuring the 3-month follow-up of the 117 trauma-exposed individuals， 17 cases developed PTSD， with a higher proportion of females （70.59%）. Between-group comparisons showed that， compared with the PTSD group， the non-PTSD group had higher scores for positive coping， objective support， and subjective support （P<0.05）， and lower scores for negative coping， HAMA， HAMD， and PCL-5 （P<0.05）. Correlation analysis indicated that female gender， negative coping， and higher HAMA and HAMD scores were associated with greater PTSD severity. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that educational level （OR=1.715， 95% CI： 1.020-2.883， P=0.042） and negative coping （OR=1.590， 95% CI： 1.003-2.522， P=0.048） were risk factors for PTSD， whereas objective support （OR=0.646， 95% CI： 0.451-0.925， P=0.017） was a protective factor. The ROC analysis showed that the total SCSQ score and its negative and positive coping dimensions， the total SSRS score and its subjective and objective support dimensions， as well as their combined use， all demonstrated good discriminative ability in distinguishing between the PTSD and non-PTSD groups. ConclusionThe results suggest that individuals who are female， with higher HAMA and HAMD scores after a motor vehicle accident， and those with lower social support and negative coping strategies， should be given particular attention. Early interventions for these individuals may reduce the incidence of PTSD.

ObjectiveThe accuracy of Y-chromosome haplogroup assignment is crucial for tracing paternal lineage in male samples. With the advancement of high-throughput sequencing technologies, high-density Y-SNP genotyping from whole-genome or array-based data has become a standard method for determiningY-chromosome haplogroups. This study systematically evaluated the performance of 4 commonly used high-density SNP genotyping systems—namely, the Global Screening Array (GSA), Chinese Genotyping Array (CGA), Affymetrix array, and the 1240K capture panel—for haplogroup assignment. This work provides a reference for data comparison across different systems. MethodsWe extracted genotype data for the 4 Y-SNP panels from 30× whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data of 1 590 male samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. Additionally, GSA array genotype data from 384 relative pairs (spanning 1st- to 12th-degree relationships) from 109 Chinese Han families were collected. Haplogroup assignment was performed using Y-LineageTracker v1.3.0 software. We assessed the concordance and resolution of haplogroup assignments between the four Y-SNP panels and the WGS data. The consistency and resolution of haplogroup assignments were also evaluated for both the 1000 Genomes Project samples and the 109 family samples collected in this study. Furthermore, the impact of varying numbers of Y-SNPs on haplogroup assignment was examined. ResultsThe GSA and CGA panels demonstrated superior resolution and discrimination of haplogroup subclades compared with the other two panels. The haplogroup assignments from the GSA, CGA, and 1240K panels showed high concordance with WGS data, with consistency rates exceeding 88.70%, whereas the Affymetrix platform exhibited a significantly lower consistency rate of 61.89%. Specifically, the GSA and CGA panels consistently demonstrated superior performance compared with the other two panels in the assignment of haplogroups O-M175 and H-L901, achieving complete concordance (100%) for both haplogroups. In contrast, the Affymetrix panel erroneously assigned all individuals belonging to haplogroup O-M175 to haplogroup K2-M526. Furthermore, its accuracy for haplogroup H-L901 was exceedingly low, at merely 1.41%. This poor performance was characterized by the misassignment of 98.59% of H-L901 samples—specifically, 1.41% to J-M304 and a predominant 97.18% to F-M89. For haplogroup R-M207, all four panels exhibited uniformly high levels of consistency, with concordance values exceeding 94.00%. Notably, for haplogroup E-M96, the 1240K and Affymetrix panels outperformed the GSA and CGA panels in terms of concordance, representing the first instance in which these two panels surpassed the latter. Conversely, for haplogroups J-M304, Q-M242, and I-M170, all 4 panels showed relatively elevated misclassification rates, with the Affymetrix array demonstrating the poorest overall performance. None of the four panels showed any discordant haplogroup assignments among the familial relative pairs analyzed. A positive correlation was observed between the number of Y-SNPs (ranging from 1 000 to 10 000) and classification consistency; however, classification consistency plateaued when the number of Y-SNPs exceeded 10 000. Furthermore, a random sampling analysis conducted on the GSA and CGA panels demonstrated that the haplogroup misclassification rate exhibited negligible fluctuation across the Y-SNP range of 500 to 1 000. Conversely, a marked enhancement in classification consistency was observed as the number of markers increased from 1 000 to 5 000, ultimately reaching a plateau within the interval of 5 000 to 8 000 markers. ConclusionThese findings indicate that the GSA and CGA panels provide high resolution and concordance, delivering reliable Y-haplogroup assignment for forensic investigations.

ObjectiveThe accuracy of Y-chromosome haplogroup assignment is crucial for tracing paternal lineage in male samples. With the advancement of high-throughput sequencing technologies, high-density Y-SNP genotyping from whole-genome or array-based data has become a standard method for determiningY-chromosome haplogroups. This study systematically evaluated the performance of 4 commonly used high-density SNP genotyping systems—namely, the Global Screening Array (GSA), Chinese Genotyping Array (CGA), Affymetrix array, and the 1240K capture panel—for haplogroup assignment. This work provides a reference for data comparison across different systems. MethodsWe extracted genotype data for the 4 Y-SNP panels from 30× whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data of 1 590 male samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. Additionally, GSA array genotype data from 384 relative pairs (spanning 1st- to 12th-degree relationships) from 109 Chinese Han families were collected. Haplogroup assignment was performed using Y-LineageTracker v1.3.0 software. We assessed the concordance and resolution of haplogroup assignments between the four Y-SNP panels and the WGS data. The consistency and resolution of haplogroup assignments were also evaluated for both the 1000 Genomes Project samples and the 109 family samples collected in this study. Furthermore, the impact of varying numbers of Y-SNPs on haplogroup assignment was examined. ResultsThe GSA and CGA panels demonstrated superior resolution and discrimination of haplogroup subclades compared with the other two panels. The haplogroup assignments from the GSA, CGA, and 1240K panels showed high concordance with WGS data, with consistency rates exceeding 88.70%, whereas the Affymetrix platform exhibited a significantly lower consistency rate of 61.89%. Specifically, the GSA and CGA panels consistently demonstrated superior performance compared with the other two panels in the assignment of haplogroups O-M175 and H-L901, achieving complete concordance (100%) for both haplogroups. In contrast, the Affymetrix panel erroneously assigned all individuals belonging to haplogroup O-M175 to haplogroup K2-M526. Furthermore, its accuracy for haplogroup H-L901 was exceedingly low, at merely 1.41%. This poor performance was characterized by the misassignment of 98.59% of H-L901 samples—specifically, 1.41% to J-M304 and a predominant 97.18% to F-M89. For haplogroup R-M207, all four panels exhibited uniformly high levels of consistency, with concordance values exceeding 94.00%. Notably, for haplogroup E-M96, the 1240K and Affymetrix panels outperformed the GSA and CGA panels in terms of concordance, representing the first instance in which these two panels surpassed the latter. Conversely, for haplogroups J-M304, Q-M242, and I-M170, all 4 panels showed relatively elevated misclassification rates, with the Affymetrix array demonstrating the poorest overall performance. None of the four panels showed any discordant haplogroup assignments among the familial relative pairs analyzed. A positive correlation was observed between the number of Y-SNPs (ranging from 1 000 to 10 000) and classification consistency; however, classification consistency plateaued when the number of Y-SNPs exceeded 10 000. Furthermore, a random sampling analysis conducted on the GSA and CGA panels demonstrated that the haplogroup misclassification rate exhibited negligible fluctuation across the Y-SNP range of 500 to 1 000. Conversely, a marked enhancement in classification consistency was observed as the number of markers increased from 1 000 to 5 000, ultimately reaching a plateau within the interval of 5 000 to 8 000 markers. ConclusionThese findings indicate that the GSA and CGA panels provide high resolution and concordance, delivering reliable Y-haplogroup assignment for forensic investigations.

ObjectiveThe malaria parasites remodel the host erythrocyte structure by exporting parasite proteins that interact with the membrane skeleton proteins of red blood cells (RBCs), facilitating their intracellular survival and pathogenicity. Skeleton-binding protein 1 (SBP1) is a conserved exported protein across Plasmodium species. In Plasmodium falciparum, SBP1 has been reported to interact with erythrocyte membrane skeleton proteins 4.1R and spectrin, while its contribution to erythrocyte remodeling and parasite virulence in Plasmodium berghei (Pb) remains unclear. This study aims to determine whether PbSBP1 associates with the host cytoskeletal protein 4.1R and to investigate its role in the remodeling of host RBCs and the pathogenicity of Plasmodium berghei. MethodsIn Plasmodium berghei, the relationship between PbSBP1 and the erythrocyte cytoskeletal protein 4.1R was examined using co-immunoprecipitation. A Pbsbp1 gene knockout mutant of Plasmodium berghei (Pbsbp1∆) was generated based on the principle of double crossover homologous recombination. The deformability of erythrocytes infected with Pbsbp1∆ parasites was assessed using microfluidic methods. Microchannels with an array of cylindrical pillars were used to detect modifications in infected RBC deformability. The infected RBCs were squashed between the rows and recovered between the columns and the transit velocity (μm/s) of infected RBCs travelling through the microchannel was recorded. The component of the erythrocyte membrane skeleton junctional complex, tropomodulin (TMOD), was fluorescently labeled, and the cytoskeletal network of infected erythrocytes was imaged using super-resolution stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (STORM) to analyze ultrastructural changes in the cytoskeleton of wild-type (WT) and Pbsbp1∆-infected erythrocytes. Actin-based junctional complexes were displayed as individual clusters by the labeled TMOD in the STORM images, and the cluster densities and distances between adjacent clusters of infected RBCs were calculated. Additionally, rodent malaria models (BALB/c mice) and experimental cerebral malaria models (C57BL/6 mice) were employed to monitor the growth of Pbsbp1∆ and WT parasites during the intraerythrocytic stage and their capacity to induce cerebral malaria in mice. ResultsPbSBP1 may participate in the remodeling of infected erythrocytes through direct or indirect interaction with the erythrocyte cytoskeletal protein 4.1R. Microfluidic assays revealed that the deformability of erythrocytes infected with Pbsbp1∆ parasites was significantly enhanced compared to those infected with WT parasites. STORM imaging further demonstrated that the ultrastructure of the erythrocyte cytoskeleton in Pbsbp1∆-infected cells was altered relative to that in WT-infected erythrocytes. The distances between nearest neighbors of clusters had a tendency to increase while the cluster densities were decreased in Pbsbp1∆-infected RBCs compared to WT-infected RBCs. Subsequent phenotypic analysis indicated that the growth rate of Pbsbp1∆ parasites during the intraerythrocytic stage was significantly slower than that of WT parasites, and their ability to induce cerebral malaria in mice was also attenuated. These findings suggest that PbSBP1 is involved in the remodeling of the erythrocyte membrane skeleton, likely through its direct or indirect interaction with protein 4.1R, thereby regulating the deformability of infected erythrocytes and influencing the pathogenicity of the blood-stage parasites. ConclusionThis study establishes a role for PbSBP1 in host erythrocyte remodeling and parasite virulence, providing new research strategies for the prevention and treatment of malaria.

ObjectiveTo analyze the risk factors for long-term cardiovascular events in patients undergoing long-term peritoneal dialysis （PD）， and to construct and validate a visual nomogram prediction model based on multiple parameters. MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted， consecutively enrolling 248 maintenance PD patients （dialysis duration ≥ 3 months）. Demographic characteristics， clinical indicators， laboratory parameters， and echocardiographic indices （including left ventricular ejection fraction ［LVEF］， ratio of early diastolic mitral inflow velocity to early diastolic mitral annular velocity （E/e’）， etc.） were collected. The composite endpoint was defined as the occurrence of cardiovascular events or cardiovascular death， with non-cardiovascular death as the competing risk and loss to follow-up or the end of follow-up as censoring events. Fine-Gray competing risks model was used to screen independent predictors， based on which a nomogram model was constructed. Internal validation was performed using the Bootstrap method （1 000 resamplings）， and the concordance index （C-index） and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic （time-dependent ROC） curve were calculated to evaluate the model performance. ResultsWith a median follow-up of 29 months （interquartile range： 24–35 months）， 88 patients （35.48%） reached the composite endpoint， including 80 cases of cardiovascular events and 8 cases of cardiovascular death， and 4 patients died of non-cardiovascular causes. Multivariate Fine-Gray analysis revealed that age， diabetes mellitus， hemoglobin （HGB） level and E/e' ratio were independent influencing factors of the composite endpoint. Specifically， each 1-year increase in age was associated with a 3.0% increase in the risk of the composite endpoint （HR=1.030， P=0.006）； patients with diabetes mellitus had a 167.9% higher risk compared with non-diabetic patients （HR=2.679， P=0.007）； each 1g/L increase in HGB level contributed to a 1.5% reduction in the risk （HR=0.985， P=0.003）； and each 0.1 increase in E/e' ratio led to a 7.2% increase in the risk （HR=1.072， P=0.045）. The nomogram model had a C-index of 0.76 （95% CI： 0.698–0.820）， and the AUC of the time-dependent ROC curve reached 0.849 at 23 months of follow-up. ConclusionIncreased age， complicated with diabetes mellitus， decreased HGB， and elevated E/e' ratio are independent risk factors of long-term occurrence of cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in patients undergoing long-term PD. The nomogram model constructed based on the above variables has good predictive value and clinical applicability， which can provide a reference for cardiovascular risk stratification and individualized intervention in long-term PD patients.

ObjectiveTo analyze the clinicopathological features of patients with comorbidities of chronic hepatitis B （CHB） and steatotic liver disease （SLD）， to investigate the impact of hyperglycemia on the risk of liver fibrosis and end-stage liver diseases （ESLD）， and to provide a basis for the clinical management of such population. MethodsA total of 668 adult patients with CHB-SLD confirmed by liver biopsy in The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 2011 to December 2019 were enrolled， and a retrospective cohort was established with the time of liver biopsy as the baseline and the onset of ESLD as the endpoint. All patients were followed up to March 31， 2024. Propensity score matching （PSM） was performed at a ratio of 1∶4 to balance baseline features between groups， resulting in 82 patients in the hyperglycemia group and 281 in the non-hyperglycemia group. The two groups were compared in terms of metabolic profiles， laboratory markers， and histopathological features. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed quantitative data between two groups. The chi-square test or Fisher exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the influencing factors for advanced fibrosis （AF）， and the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional-hazards regression model were used to determine the influencing factors for the development of ESLD. ResultsCompared with the non-hyperglycemia group， the hyperglycemia group had a significantly higher number of factors for metabolic disorders， a significantly higher degree of hepatic steatosis， and a significantly higher detection rate of AF （all P<0.05）. The multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that hyperglycemia was a risk factor for AF （odds ratio = 1.753， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.017　—　3.023， P=0.043）. The survival analysis showed that hyperglycemia increased the risk of ESLD （χ²=4.340， P=0.037）. The multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that hyperglycemia was a significant metabolic risk factor for ESLD in patients with AF （adjusted hazard ratio=3.208， 95%CI： 1.201　—　8.568， P=0.020）. ConclusionHyperglycemia can increase the risk of AF and ESLD in CHB-SLD patients. Clinical monitoring and active management should be strengthened for patients who have already developed AF and hyperglycemia.

Objective:To evaluate the effects of laser moxibustion(LM)on tumor-related immunity in tumor-bearing mice.Methods:Thirty male C57BL/6 mice were randomized into a control group,a model group,and an LM group,with 10 mice in each group.Mice in the control group did not receive any intervention,and mice in the model group and LM group were injected into the right armpit with 1×107 cells/mL Lewis lung carcinoma cells to induce tumor models.From the first day after the injection,the LM group mice were irradiated with LM at Guanyuan(CV4)and bilateral Zusanli(ST36),5 min each point for a total of 15 min,once daily for 15 consecutive days.From the day of visible tumor formation(i.e.,day 8),mice in the model and LM groups were measured every other day with a vernier caliper to calculate the tumor volume.On day 16 after injection,the serum,lung,spleen,and tumors of the mice were harvested.Hematoxylin-eosin staining was used to observe tumor pulmonary metastasis.Changes in the serum levels of programmed death 1(PD-1)and programmed death-ligand 1(PD-L1)were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay;the abundance of PD-1 and PD-L1 proteins in tumors was determined by Western blotting;and the proportions of lymphocyte subsets and myeloid-derived suppressor cells(MDSCs)in tumors and spleen were determined by flow cytometry.Results:Compared to the model group,the tumor volume of mice in the LM group decreased significantly on days 8 and 10(P<0.05);the lung tissues of the LM group showed no apparent tumor atypia;the proportion of monocytic MDSCs(M-MDSCs)in the tumors of LM group mice decreased(P<0.05);the PD-1 and PD-L1 levels in the serum of mice in the LM group declined with statistically significant variation in the reduction of PD-L1(P<0.01);PD-1 and PD-L1 protein expression in the tumor tissues of mice in the LM group reduced significantly(P<0.01).Conclusion:LM intervention can reduce the expression of PD-1 and PD-L1 in the serum of tumor-bearing mice,decrease the expression of PD-1 and PD-L1 proteins and the proportion of M-MDSCs in tumor tissues.These effects may be one of the mechanisms by which LM slows the early-stage growth of Lewis lung carcinoma tumor in mice.

Objective Exploring the components of complex scenarios of healthcare surges triggered by major epidemics to provide a theorical basis for building resilience in healthcare organizations.Methods A hybrid analysis method is used to summarize macro-meso-micro multi-level and multi-source heterogeneous information,extract the elements of complex scenarios of medical surge and evaluate the rationality.Fault Tree Analysis method is used to clarify the logical relationship between various scenario elements and construct scenario reasoning paths.Results 10 scenario states,11 disaster-bearing,24 emergency management and 23 scenario results are summarized and extracted to form the key elements of complex surge scenarios.Among them,M4 expansion and coordinated scheduling of key positions,B2 conventional drug inventory emergency/insufficient core treatment drugs,B emergency medical material transportation breakage,S3 disease symptom spectrum shift to severe disease,R13 prevention and control awareness laxity,and M5 media information dissemination management are the key driving factors that promote a major turning point in the scenario.The most positive scenario result is the orderly operation of the medical service system,and the most negative scenario result is the paralysis of the medical service system.Conclusion Medical institutions need to improve emergency plans based on the complex evolution scenarios of medical surges and agile governance capabilities targeting key turning points,focus on dynamically expanding and scheduling personnel in key positions,strengthen material rotation and reserve mechanisms,maintain smooth emergency logistics channels,and improve efficient management of media and public opinion,so as to comprehensively improve overall resilience.