1.Epidemiological characteristics of category C intestinal infectious diseases among children and adolescents in Shenzhen from 2012 to 2024 and the association with meteorological factors
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(4):553-557
Objective:
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of category C intestinal infectious diseases among children and adolescents in Shenzhen from 2012 to 2024 and the association with meteorological factors, so as to provide a scientific basis for the targeted prevention and control of infectious diseases for children and adolescents.
Methods:
Using data from the "Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System" of the "China Disease Prevention and Control Information System" covering the period from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2024, the study analyzed clinical and confirmed cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease, other infectious diarrhea, and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis among individuals aged 6-19 years old to describe demographic and temporal characteristics. It used Joinpoint regression to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) to analyze incidence trends, and Spearman s correlation was combined to generalize linear models so as to assess the association between category C intestinal infectious diseases and meteorological factors.
Results:
From 2012 to 2024, a cumulative total of 61 019 cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease among children and adolescents, 58 498 cases of other infectious diarrhea, and 6 377 cases of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis were reported. The AAPC in the incidence rates of these three diseases was 19.19%, 31.03% and 31.48 %, respectively(all P <0.05). Notably, the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease increased significantly after 2022 (APC= 133.66 %, P <0.01). The temporal distribution showed that hand,foot,and mouth disease was most prevalent in May,June and July (seasonal index of 2.39,3.64,1.97), other infectious diarrhea was most prevalent in February,March and December (seasonal index of 1.22,1.25,1.47), and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis peaked in September and October (seasonal index of 4.22,2.16). Monthly average temperature could increase the risk of hand,foot,and mouth disease( β = 0.18 ,95% CI =0.11-0.25); as monthly average wind speed increased, the incidence of other infectious diarrhea ( β =-0.86, 95% CI = -1.50 to -0.22) and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis ( β =-1.32, 95% CI =-2.60 to -0.05) both decreased (all P < 0.05 ).
Conclusions
Among children and adolescents in Shenzhen, category C intestinal infectious diseases remain prevalent throughout the year;the number of reported hand, foot, and mouth disease cases has shown an upward trend in recent years.Temperature and wind speed significantly affect the number of reported cases of three types with category C intestinal infectious diseases.
2.Temporal distribution characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Shenzhen, 2011-2023
Lixia SONG ; Wenhai LU ; Zhen ZHANG ; Yanpeng CHENG ; Huawei XIONG ; Yan LU ; Qiuying LYU ; Zhigao CHEN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(9):1610-1616
Objective:To analyze the temporal distribution of other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Shenzhen and provide evidence for the prevention and control of OID.Methods:The incidence data of OID in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023 were collected. The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL), seasonal index method, concentration degree and circular distribution method were used to analyze the incidence trend and temporal distribution of OID.Results:A total of 477 611 cases of OID were reported in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 260.19/100 000 showing a fluctuating upward trend. The seasonal index method indicated that October-January was period with high incidence of OID in Shenzhen and the seasonal intensity began to decrease in 2020. STL revealed an obvious incidence peak in winter. The concentration method showed that OID had a certain seasonality before 2018 except 2016, but the seasonality was not obvious after 2018. The circular distribution results showed that r was 0.05, mean angle ā was 1.92° and angular standard deviation s was 141.93° ( Z=1 033.37, P<0.001), with the peak on January 1 st and the high incidence period from August 11 th to May 25 th. Conclusions:OID had a certain degree of seasonality in Shenzhen, with an obvious incidence peak in winter. Since the seasonal intensity of OID decreased after 2018, the surveillance, early warning and risk assessment of OID should be continued, and prevention and control measures should be adjusted timely according to the change in the characteristics of the epidemic.
3.Epidemiological characteristics of chronic hepatitis B and establishment of prediction model based on socio-demographic index in Shenzhen, 2005-2023
Huawei XIONG ; Liming CAO ; Yanpeng CHEN ; Qiuying LYU ; Zhigao CHEN ; Jing REN ; Yan LU ; Zhen ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(9):1623-1631
Objectives:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of chronic hepatitis B in Shenzhen from 2005 to 2023, develop a prediction models with performance evaluation, explore its associations with social demographic index (SDI) and inform targeted prevention strategy development.Methods:Based on surveillance data of infectious diseases, descriptive epidemiological methods were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal and population distribution characteristics. A multifactorial prediction model integrating the SDI was established, and its predictive performance was evaluated by using data from 2020-2023. Model accuracy was evaluated by using root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). The association between SDI and incidence rates was assessed through generalized linear models. Results:A total of 235 703 chronic hepatitis B cases were reported cumulatively in Shenzhen from 2005-2023, with an annual average incidence rate of 98.84/100 000. Long-term trends revealed a significant increase in the incidence from 2005 to 2019. The incidence rate was 2.48 times higher in men than in women, and the majority of cases occurred in age group 20-50 years. The cases were mainly workers in manufacturing and services. Seasonal incidence peaks were observed in March and during May to November. The overall SDI exhibited a consistent upward trend, and the positive correlation between SDI and incidence rate was observed in central urban districts (Futian and Nanshan). In contrast, industrial zones (Guangming and Bao'an) saw a significant decline in incidence rates due to intensified prevention interventions despite the increase of SDI level. Model predictions indicated that the multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning model integrating SDI parameters outperformed both the spatiotemporal covariate- enhanced model and the augmented Bayesian structural time series model, with MAPE of 4.71%, 7.66% and 10.30%, respectively. Conclusion:SDI is a key social determinant associated with hepatitis B transmission risks, and dynamic thresholds can be established to develop tiered early warning mechanisms. It is suggested to integrate multisource SDI data into the LSTM framework, implement targeted interventions such as "rapid antibody screening in key areas + vaccination boosters for high-risk populations" and improve the timeliness of epidemic response through hybrid models to reduce disease burden level.
4.Development of a postoperative recurrence prediction model for stage Ⅰ non-small cell lung cancer patients using multimodal data based on machine learning
Di ZHANG ; Yi WU ; Yu XU ; Shuai WANG ; Yue HU ; Huawei CHEN ; Nana HU ; Rong HE ; Xueling TONG ; Mengxia LI
Journal of Army Medical University 2025;47(14):1602-1611
Objective To develop a machine learning model integrating preoperative chest CT radiomic features with clinical data for predicting 5-year postoperative recurrence risk in stage Ⅰ non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC)patients undergoing surgical resection.Methods A total of 217 patients with pathologically confirmed stage Ⅰ NSCLC(selected from 778 initially screened cases based on our inclusion and exclusion criteria)treated in Army Medical Center of PLA between January 2014 and December 2019 were retrospectively enrolled,including 53 recurrence cases and 164 non-recurrence cases within 5-year follow-up.They were randomly divided into a training set(n=173)and a validation set(n=44)in a ratio of 8:2.Radiomic models were established based on extracted features from tumor-dominant regions of interest(ROI)on CT images,while clinical models were developed using demographic characteristics and preoperative laboratory examinations.A combined model was further constructed by integrating both feature sets,and model performance was compared to identify the optimal predictive model.Results This study screened the features from non-contrast CT images and ultimately selected 7 radiomic features for constructing radiomic model.Among 6 machine learning algorithms,the adaptive boosting(Adaboost)model demonstrated the best overall predictive performance,with an area under the curve(AUC)of 0.866(95%CI:0.808~0.923;accuracy:0.832,specificity:0.884)in the training set and of 0.806(95%CI:0.630~0.983;accuracy:0.795,specificity:0.971)in the validation set.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified 4 clinical features for clinical model construction.The clinical model achieved an AUC value of 0.874(95%CI:0.821~0.928;accuracy:0.827,specificity:0.891)in the training set and 0.813(95%CI:0.677~0.948;accuracy:0.636,specificity:0.600)in the validation set.By integrating the 7 radiomic features and 4 clinical features using a feature-level fusion strategy,the combined model exhibited further improved predictive performance,with an AUC value of 0.953(95%CI:0.924~0.983;accuracy:0.884,specificity:0.860)and 0.852(95%CI:0.729~0.976;accuracy:0.682,specificity:0.629),respectively in the training set and the validation set.Conclusion The combined model integrating preoperative CT radiomic features with clinical risk factors may provide an evidence-based framework for evaluating 5-year postoperative recurrence risk in stage Ⅰ NSCLC patients.
5.Clinical application of anterolateral femoral myocutaneous flap combined with oral repair membrane in reconstruction of maxillary malignant tumor postoperative defect.
Huawei MING ; Zongyi YUAN ; Xingan ZHANG ; Jiaxin JIA ; Fangyuan CHEN ; Xiaoyao TAN ; Zilong LIU ; Yun HE
Journal of Clinical Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2025;39(12):1177-1181
Objective:To investigate the clinical effect of free anterolateral thigh myocutaneous flap combined with oral repair membrane in the reconstruction of nasal mucosa defect after maxillary malignant tumor surgery. Methods:A total of 12 patients with maxillary gingival squamous cell carcinoma and maxillary sinus cancer who had been treated in Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Beijing Anzhen Nanchong Hospital, Capital Medical University & Nanchong Central Hospital, were selected from November 2020 to November 2023. Free anterolateral thigh musculocutaneous flap transplantation combined with oral repair membrane were used in all patients. Meanwhile, maxillary soft and hard tissue defects and nasal mucosa defects left after tumor operation were repaired and reconstructed. The clinical effect was evaluated after 6-12 months follow-up. Results:Subtotal maxillary resection was performed in 1 case, total maxillary resection in 9 cases and extended maxillary resection in 2 cases. The musculocutaneous flaps of all patients survived, the facial appearance was basically symmetrical, no obvious depression deformity, the swallowing and speech function recovered well, the mouth and nasal cavity were closed completely, the food could be eaten through the mouth, and the lower nasal passage was not blocked. Conclusion:The free anterolateral thigh musculoflap combined with oral repair membrane can be used to repair and reconstruct maxillary malignant tumor complicated with extensive maxillary tissue and nasal mucosa defect after operation, and the appearance and function can be recovered well after operation, which is a choice for maxillary malignant tumor complicated with nasal mucosa defect.
Humans
;
Myocutaneous Flap
;
Plastic Surgery Procedures/methods*
;
Maxillary Neoplasms/surgery*
;
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell/surgery*
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Female
;
Nasal Mucosa/surgery*
;
Maxilla/surgery*
;
Thigh/surgery*
;
Maxillary Sinus Neoplasms/surgery*
6.Evolution-guided design of mini-protein for high-contrast in vivo imaging.
Nongyu HUANG ; Yang CAO ; Guangjun XIONG ; Suwen CHEN ; Juan CHENG ; Yifan ZHOU ; Chengxin ZHANG ; Xiaoqiong WEI ; Wenling WU ; Yawen HU ; Pei ZHOU ; Guolin LI ; Fulei ZHAO ; Fanlian ZENG ; Xiaoyan WANG ; Jiadong YU ; Chengcheng YUE ; Xinai CUI ; Kaijun CUI ; Huawei CAI ; Yuquan WEI ; Yang ZHANG ; Jiong LI
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(10):5327-5345
Traditional development of small protein scaffolds has relied on display technologies and mutation-based engineering, which limit sequence and functional diversity, thereby constraining their therapeutic and application potential. Protein design tools have significantly advanced the creation of novel protein sequences, structures, and functions. However, further improvements in design strategies are still needed to more efficiently optimize the functional performance of protein-based drugs and enhance their druggability. Here, we extended an evolution-based design protocol to create a novel minibinder, BindHer, against the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). It not only exhibits super stability and binding selectivity but also demonstrates remarkable properties in tissue specificity. Radiolabeling experiments with 99mTc, 68Ga, and 18F revealed that BindHer efficiently targets tumors in HER2-positive breast cancer mouse models, with minimal nonspecific liver absorption, outperforming scaffolds designed through traditional engineering. These findings highlight a new rational approach to automated protein design, offering significant potential for large-scale applications in therapeutic mini-protein development.
7.Predictive Value and Model Construction of C-reactive Protein/D-dimer Ratio and Fibrinogen/Albumin Ratio for the Occurrence of MACE after PCI in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease
Shumei QIU ; Haiyan ZHANG ; Huawei WANG
Journal of Kunming Medical University 2025;46(7):92-100
Objective To comprehensively assess the predictive value of C-reactive protein(CRP)/D-dimer(D-D)and albumin/fibrinogen(FAR)in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)after percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI)in patients with coronary heart disease(CHD)and to construct a nomogram model for predicting post-procedural MACE in CHD patients.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 201 CHD patients who underwent PCI at the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University between June 2022 and March 2025.These patients were divided into MACE group(n=77)and non-MACE group(n=124)based on whether MACE occurred or not.84 CHD patients from another medical center were also collected as the validation set.The expression levels of CRP/D-D and FAR were compared between the two groups;independent predictors of postoperative MACE in CHD patients were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses;the predictive value of CRP/D-D and FAR for the occurrence of postoperative MACE in CHD patients was assessed using ROC curves;A nomogram model was established integrating indicators such as CRP/D-D and FAR,and internal and external validations of the nomogram model were conducted using ROC curves,calibration curves,and decision curve analysis(DCA)curves.Results Compared with CHD patients in the non-MACE group,CRP/D-D and FAR levels were significantly higher in the MACE group(P<0.05).Multivariate analysis showed that age,NTproBNP,WBC,CRP/D-D,and FAR were independent risk factors for postoperative MACE in CHD patients(P<0.05).ROC curve analysis indicated that the AUC predicted by CRP/D-D combined with FAR was higher than that of CRP/D-D alone(Z=3.473,P<0.001),and FAR alone(Z=2.812,P<0.05).The Nomogram model constructed based on the aforementioned factors was validated internally and externally,and the results showed that the Nomogram model had good calibration,excellent discriminative ability,and reliable clinical utility,accurately predicting the risk of postoperative MACE.Conclusion The CRP/D-D ratio and FAR,as emerging composite biomarkers,showed significant predictive ability in predicting the risk of MACE after PCI in patients with CHD,providing a new reliable tool for clinical risk stratification.
8.Temporal distribution characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Shenzhen, 2011-2023
Lixia SONG ; Wenhai LU ; Zhen ZHANG ; Yanpeng CHENG ; Huawei XIONG ; Yan LU ; Qiuying LYU ; Zhigao CHEN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(9):1610-1616
Objective:To analyze the temporal distribution of other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Shenzhen and provide evidence for the prevention and control of OID.Methods:The incidence data of OID in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023 were collected. The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL), seasonal index method, concentration degree and circular distribution method were used to analyze the incidence trend and temporal distribution of OID.Results:A total of 477 611 cases of OID were reported in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 260.19/100 000 showing a fluctuating upward trend. The seasonal index method indicated that October-January was period with high incidence of OID in Shenzhen and the seasonal intensity began to decrease in 2020. STL revealed an obvious incidence peak in winter. The concentration method showed that OID had a certain seasonality before 2018 except 2016, but the seasonality was not obvious after 2018. The circular distribution results showed that r was 0.05, mean angle ā was 1.92° and angular standard deviation s was 141.93° ( Z=1 033.37, P<0.001), with the peak on January 1 st and the high incidence period from August 11 th to May 25 th. Conclusions:OID had a certain degree of seasonality in Shenzhen, with an obvious incidence peak in winter. Since the seasonal intensity of OID decreased after 2018, the surveillance, early warning and risk assessment of OID should be continued, and prevention and control measures should be adjusted timely according to the change in the characteristics of the epidemic.
9.Epidemiological characteristics of chronic hepatitis B and establishment of prediction model based on socio-demographic index in Shenzhen, 2005-2023
Huawei XIONG ; Liming CAO ; Yanpeng CHEN ; Qiuying LYU ; Zhigao CHEN ; Jing REN ; Yan LU ; Zhen ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(9):1623-1631
Objectives:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of chronic hepatitis B in Shenzhen from 2005 to 2023, develop a prediction models with performance evaluation, explore its associations with social demographic index (SDI) and inform targeted prevention strategy development.Methods:Based on surveillance data of infectious diseases, descriptive epidemiological methods were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal and population distribution characteristics. A multifactorial prediction model integrating the SDI was established, and its predictive performance was evaluated by using data from 2020-2023. Model accuracy was evaluated by using root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). The association between SDI and incidence rates was assessed through generalized linear models. Results:A total of 235 703 chronic hepatitis B cases were reported cumulatively in Shenzhen from 2005-2023, with an annual average incidence rate of 98.84/100 000. Long-term trends revealed a significant increase in the incidence from 2005 to 2019. The incidence rate was 2.48 times higher in men than in women, and the majority of cases occurred in age group 20-50 years. The cases were mainly workers in manufacturing and services. Seasonal incidence peaks were observed in March and during May to November. The overall SDI exhibited a consistent upward trend, and the positive correlation between SDI and incidence rate was observed in central urban districts (Futian and Nanshan). In contrast, industrial zones (Guangming and Bao'an) saw a significant decline in incidence rates due to intensified prevention interventions despite the increase of SDI level. Model predictions indicated that the multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning model integrating SDI parameters outperformed both the spatiotemporal covariate- enhanced model and the augmented Bayesian structural time series model, with MAPE of 4.71%, 7.66% and 10.30%, respectively. Conclusion:SDI is a key social determinant associated with hepatitis B transmission risks, and dynamic thresholds can be established to develop tiered early warning mechanisms. It is suggested to integrate multisource SDI data into the LSTM framework, implement targeted interventions such as "rapid antibody screening in key areas + vaccination boosters for high-risk populations" and improve the timeliness of epidemic response through hybrid models to reduce disease burden level.
10.Radiomics and deep transfer learning based on gadoxetic acid disodium-enhanced MRI for predicting preoperative microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma
Zhao CHEN ; Yu ZHANG ; Le ZHOU ; Qiang CHEN ; Huawei SU
Chinese Journal of Medical Physics 2025;42(10):1353-1360
Objective To explore the value of radiomics and deep transfer learning(DTL)based on gadoxetic acid disodium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)for preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion(MVI)in hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted using the MRI and clinicopathological data of 369 HCC patients who underwent surgery and had pathologically confirmed MVI at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from January 2019 to September 2024.According to the negative and positive manifestations of MVI,these patients were divided into MVI-group(n=219)and MVI+group(n=150);and they were then randomly assigned into the training set(n=258)and the test set(n=111)in a ratio of 7:3.Based on the hepatobiliary phase images,the optimal features were extracted and screened from radiomics features,DTL features,and the fusion features of the two.Nine machine learning models were constructed using 3 algorithms(random forest,multi-layer perceptron,and support vector machine,separately)and trained on radiomics features,DTL features,and the fusion features of the two.The diagnostic efficacy of each model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve,and the optimal model was identified as the output model.Results Among all the constructed models,those based on fused features outperformed models using individual features.The random forest classifier model in the training set had the best performance,with an AUC of 0.998(95%CI:0.996-1.000),and was therefore selected as the output model in this study.Conclusion Radiomics and DTL models based on gadoxetic acid disodium-enhanced MRI can effectively predict the MVI in HCC.Among these,the random forest classifier model utilizing fused features in the training set exhibits the best performance.


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