1.Disease burden and trend prediction of autism spectrum disorder in children and adolescents in China and globally
GAO Yue, LI Hongjie, CHEN Meiqi, ZHOU Yang, YANG Xiaolei
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(2):268-272
Objective:
To analyze the current burden of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children and adolescents in China and globally, and to predict the disease burden from 2024 to 2035, providing a scientific basis for formulating relevant public health policies and intervention measures.
Methods:
Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database in 2023, the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trends of the disease burden of ASD among children and adolescents in China and globally from 1990 to 2023, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed to predict the disease burden trends of ASD among children and adolescents in China and globally from 2024 to 2035.
Results:
The prevalence and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of ASD among children and adolescents in China increased from 452.69/100 000 and 86.67/100 000 in 1990 to 762.84/100 000 and 148.52/ 100 000 in 2023(AAPC=1.60%, 1.65%, both P <0.01). The prevalence and DALYs rate of ASD among children and adolescents globally increased from 648.49/100 000 and 123.47/100 000 to 862.44/100 000 and 167.16/100 000(AAPC=0.87%, 0.93%, both P <0.01). In 2023, the highest ASD prevalence and DALY rates occurred in children under 5 years old, with China reporting 848.14/100 000 and 166.69/100 000, both below the global averages of 928.80/100 000 and 181.34/100 000. Projections indicated that by 2035, the ASD prevalence and DALY rates in China would rise to 906.83/100 000 and 168.71/100 000, still below the global averages of 938.04/100 000 and 184.49/100 000.
Conclusion
The disease burden of ASD among children and adolescents in China and globally has generally increased from 1990 to 2023, with a higher risk of disease at younger ages.
2.Analysis of characteristics of newly reported HIV positive male student cases in Jiangsu Province from 2023 to 2024
LIU Xiaoyan, CHEN Yuheng, SHI Hongjie, NING Xin, ZHANG Ying, YANG Dandan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(3):425-429
Objective:
To investigate the characteristics and potential risk factors associated with HIV infection among newly reported HIV positive male student cases in Jiangsu Province from 2023 to 2024, so as to provide evidence for targeted intervention strategies.
Methods:
Data were obtained from the China CDC Surveillance System on newly reported HIV positive male student cases from 2023 to 2024. A survey was conducted to collect information on demographic characteristics, knowledge of AIDS prevention, education and training history, HIV testing history, behavioral and substance use patterns, and other relevant factors prior to HIV diagnosis among 343 newly reported HIV positive male student cases in Jiangsu Province. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the risk factors of HIV infection among male students.
Results:
Among the HIV positive male student cases, homosexual behavior accounted for 93.88% of transmission routes, while 10.20% involved heterosexual contact, as well as 4.08% for two sexual hehaviors. Awareness of HIV prevention knowledge was 97.08%, and 66.76% had previously undergone HIV testing. Among the respondents, 10.50% had used rush poppers as enhancers, and 72.30% had received HIV prevention education within the past year. Among students cases with homosexual behavior, the median time from first homosexual contact to HIV diagnosis was ≤2 years, with 54.66% of cases falling into this category; the most common way of finding same sex partners was through social software, accounting for 88.20% of cases, while the proportion of those via "Blued" app reached 87.07% ; the proportion of using condoms every time during sexual activity in the past six months was 12.27%. Among the student cases with homosexual behavior, the results of multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that student cases aged 18 to 24 ( OR =4.52) and >24 ( OR = 19.23 ), without receiving education on HIV prevention in the past year ( OR =1.86), having consistent condom use ( OR =2.73) and not using condoms ( OR =2.12) during the last sexual activity were more likely to had the first same sex sexual activity for more than 3 years before being diagnosed as HIV positive cases (all P <0.05). Student cases who were uncertain about their partner s sexual identity ( OR =0.33), and who primarily identified same sex partners through "other" means ( OR = 0.23 ) were more likely to avoid HIV testing; in contrast, student cases with consistent condom use during the last homosexual encounter ( OR =7.20) was significantly associated with increased likelihood of HIV testing (all P <0.05).
Conclusions
Newly reported HIV positive male student cases in Jiangsu Province exhibit serious discrepancies between knowledge and practice regarding HIV prevention. Measures are needed to accelerate the optimization of campus based HIV prevention education content and delivery methods. Simultaneously, enhanced management of extracurricular male populations is essential to effectively control the spread of HIV.
3.Acute effects of air pollution on mortality among residents in Jiading District, Shanghai, in 1994 - 2024
Dongyue MIAO ; Menghao WANG ; Renjie CHEN ; Dongni LIANG ; Yaqing JIN ; Yunjie REN ; Hongjie YU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(3):29-33
Objective To investigate the exposure-response relationships and lag effects between air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, O3, and NO2) and mortality in Jiading District, Shanghai, and to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of environmental health policies. Methods Using an individual-level time-stratified case-crossover design, conditional logistic regression models in conjunction with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) were employed to analyze the exposure-response relationship and temporal lag patterns of ambient air pollution on resident mortality in Jiading District (1994–2024). Results A total of 59 048 death cases were collected, including 18,701 deaths from cardiovascular diseases and 11 731 deaths from respiratory diseases. PM2.5 and NO2 had a significant impact on all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality, and respiratory disease mortality, with the most significant effects observed within a lag of 0–3 days. PM10 also had some impact on these three types of mortality, but its effect was generally weaker than that of PM2.5 and NO2. The exposure-response curves showed that the risk of death increased rapidly with increasing concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10, while the effect of NO2 plateaued at higher levels. No significant differences were found across age or gender subgroups. Conclusion Short-term exposure to PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 significantly increases all-cause mortality risk in Jiading District, with effects persisting up to 7 days, highlighting the need for enhanced air pollution control measures, particularly targeting fine particulate matter.
4.Morphological differences in the psoas major muscle and influencing factors for pain severity in patients with different types of lumbar disc herniation: an analysis based on quantitative computed tomography
Hongjie WANG ; Zhigang CHEN ; Pengfei GUO ; Qinghua ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2026;35(2):235-239
Objective To analyze the difference of psoas major muscle morphology and pain degree in patients with different types of lumbar disc herniation ( LDH ) by quantitative CT, and to further explore the relationship between psoas major muscle morphology and pain degree. Methods A total of 120 patients with LDH admitted to our hospital from January to December 2025 were enrolled as study subjects. Based on clinical symptoms and lesion location, they were divided into a simple lower extremity pain group and a lumbar and leg pain group. All patients underwent lumbar CT examination. The psoas major muscle index was used as a CT quantitative parameter, which was calculated as the mean of the maximum cross-sectional areas of both psoas major muscles divided by the cross-sectional area of the L5 vertebral body. This index was measured to reflect psoas major muscle morphology. Pain severity was assessed using the visual analogue scale (VAS). Differences in psoas major muscle morphology and pain severity between the two groups were compared. A Pearson correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between the psoas major muscle index and pain severity. A linear regression model was used to analyze the independent risk factors affecting pain severity. Results There were no statistically significant differences in sex, age, or body mass index between the two groups (P>0.05). The disease duration was longer and the incidence of anxiety and depression was higher in the lumbar and leg pain group than those in the simple lower extremity pain group (P<0.05). Compared with the simple lower extremity pain group, the lumbar and leg pain group showed lower psoas major muscle index [(0.53 ± 0.05) vs. (0.61 ± 0.07)] and higher VAS score [(4.67 ± 1.10) vs. (3.02 ± 0.89)], and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). Pearson correlation analysis revealed a negative correlation between the psoas major muscle index and the VAS score (r=−0.288, P<0.05). Linear regression model analysis indicated that the independent risk factors affecting the VAS score were age, disease duration, LDH type, and the psoas major muscle index. Conclusion Compared with LDH patients with simple lower extremity pain, those with lumbar and leg pain demonstrate a longer disease duration, a higher incidence of anxiety and depression, and a higher severity of psoas major muscle atrophy and pain. The severity of pain is associated with not only advanced age and prolonged disease duration but also the LDH type and psoas major muscle atrophy.
5.Effect of anxiety symptoms on pain severity in patients with major depressive disorder: the parallel mediating roles of depressive symptoms and pain vigilance and awareness
Songying FANG ; Bingjie ZHOU ; Hongjie CHEN ; Chenjiao ZHANG ; Jingxu CHEN
Sichuan Mental Health 2026;39(3):234-239
BackgroundPain is one of the most common physical symptoms in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). The high comorbidity rate of MDD and pain aggravates patients' physical and psychological distress, undermines their treatment adherence, and contributes to poor clinical outcomes, posing a critical challenge for the clinical management of MDD. Anxiety symptoms are strongly associated with the pain severity in patients with MDD, yet the underlying mechanisms of the association remain poorly elucidated. Accumulating evidence have indicated that depressive symptoms and pain vigilance and awareness are involved in the modulation of pain perception. Nevertheless, few studies have incorporated these variables into an integrated analytical framework to clarify their parallel mediating effects on the relationship between anxiety symptoms and pain severity. ObjectiveTo explore the mediating pathways linking anxiety symptoms to pain severity via depressive symptoms and pain vigilance and awareness in patients with MDD, so as to provide insights for precise intervention for MDD accompanied by pain symptoms. MethodsA total of 249 patients who met the diagnostic criteria for MDD specified in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition (DSM-5) were recruited from Beijing Huilongguan Hospital from May to September 2025. Hamilton Depression Scale-17 item (HAMD-17), Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAMA), Pain Vigilance and Awareness Questionnaire (PVAQ) and Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) were used for assessment. Partial correlation analyses were performed to examine correlations among these variables. Parallel mediating effects were tested using model 4 of the Process macro for SPSS, with depressive symptoms and pain vigilance and awareness as parallel mediators linking anxiety symptoms to pain severity. ResultsA total of 135 patients (54.22%) reported pain, comprising 59 (43.70%) with mild pain, 43 (31.85%) with moderate pain, and 33 (24.45%) with severe pain. Partial correlation analyses revealed significant positive correlations among HAMD-17, HAMA, PVAQ, and NRS scores in patients with MDD (r=0.198–0.424, P<0.05 or 0.01). Anxiety symptoms positively predicted pain severity, with a direct effect of 0.128 (95% CI: 0.065–0.190). Both depressive symptoms and pain vigilance and awareness acted as partial mediators linking anxiety symptoms to pain severity. The indirect effects were 0.057 (95% CI: 0.029–0.089) and 0.042 (95% CI: 0.016–0.079), accounting for 25.22% and 18.58% of the total effect, respectively. ConclusionIn patients with MDD, anxiety symptoms exert a positive predictive effect on pain severity, which is partially mediated through the parallel roles of depressive symptoms and pain vigilance and awareness.
6.Morphological differences in the psoas major muscle and influencing factors for pain severity in patients with different types of lumbar disc herniation: an analysis based on quantitative computed tomography
Hongjie WANG ; Zhigang CHEN ; Pengfei GUO ; Qinghua ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2026;35(2):235-239
Objective To analyze the difference of psoas major muscle morphology and pain degree in patients with different types of lumbar disc herniation ( LDH ) by quantitative CT, and to further explore the relationship between psoas major muscle morphology and pain degree. Methods A total of 120 patients with LDH admitted to our hospital from January to December 2025 were enrolled as study subjects. Based on clinical symptoms and lesion location, they were divided into a simple lower extremity pain group and a lumbar and leg pain group. All patients underwent lumbar CT examination. The psoas major muscle index was used as a CT quantitative parameter, which was calculated as the mean of the maximum cross-sectional areas of both psoas major muscles divided by the cross-sectional area of the L5 vertebral body. This index was measured to reflect psoas major muscle morphology. Pain severity was assessed using the visual analogue scale (VAS). Differences in psoas major muscle morphology and pain severity between the two groups were compared. A Pearson correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between the psoas major muscle index and pain severity. A linear regression model was used to analyze the independent risk factors affecting pain severity. Results There were no statistically significant differences in sex, age, or body mass index between the two groups (P>0.05). The disease duration was longer and the incidence of anxiety and depression was higher in the lumbar and leg pain group than those in the simple lower extremity pain group (P<0.05). Compared with the simple lower extremity pain group, the lumbar and leg pain group showed lower psoas major muscle index [(0.53 ± 0.05) vs. (0.61 ± 0.07)] and higher VAS score [(4.67 ± 1.10) vs. (3.02 ± 0.89)], and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). Pearson correlation analysis revealed a negative correlation between the psoas major muscle index and the VAS score (r=−0.288, P<0.05). Linear regression model analysis indicated that the independent risk factors affecting the VAS score were age, disease duration, LDH type, and the psoas major muscle index. Conclusion Compared with LDH patients with simple lower extremity pain, those with lumbar and leg pain demonstrate a longer disease duration, a higher incidence of anxiety and depression, and a higher severity of psoas major muscle atrophy and pain. The severity of pain is associated with not only advanced age and prolonged disease duration but also the LDH type and psoas major muscle atrophy.
7.Morphological differences in the psoas major muscle and influencing factors for pain severity in patients with different types of lumbar disc herniation: an analysis based on quantitative computed tomography
Hongjie WANG ; Zhigang CHEN ; Pengfei GUO ; Qinghua ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2026;35(2):235-239
Objective To analyze the difference of psoas major muscle morphology and pain degree in patients with different types of lumbar disc herniation ( LDH ) by quantitative CT, and to further explore the relationship between psoas major muscle morphology and pain degree. Methods A total of 120 patients with LDH admitted to our hospital from January to December 2025 were enrolled as study subjects. Based on clinical symptoms and lesion location, they were divided into a simple lower extremity pain group and a lumbar and leg pain group. All patients underwent lumbar CT examination. The psoas major muscle index was used as a CT quantitative parameter, which was calculated as the mean of the maximum cross-sectional areas of both psoas major muscles divided by the cross-sectional area of the L5 vertebral body. This index was measured to reflect psoas major muscle morphology. Pain severity was assessed using the visual analogue scale (VAS). Differences in psoas major muscle morphology and pain severity between the two groups were compared. A Pearson correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between the psoas major muscle index and pain severity. A linear regression model was used to analyze the independent risk factors affecting pain severity. Results There were no statistically significant differences in sex, age, or body mass index between the two groups (P>0.05). The disease duration was longer and the incidence of anxiety and depression was higher in the lumbar and leg pain group than those in the simple lower extremity pain group (P<0.05). Compared with the simple lower extremity pain group, the lumbar and leg pain group showed lower psoas major muscle index [(0.53 ± 0.05) vs. (0.61 ± 0.07)] and higher VAS score [(4.67 ± 1.10) vs. (3.02 ± 0.89)], and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). Pearson correlation analysis revealed a negative correlation between the psoas major muscle index and the VAS score (r=−0.288, P<0.05). Linear regression model analysis indicated that the independent risk factors affecting the VAS score were age, disease duration, LDH type, and the psoas major muscle index. Conclusion Compared with LDH patients with simple lower extremity pain, those with lumbar and leg pain demonstrate a longer disease duration, a higher incidence of anxiety and depression, and a higher severity of psoas major muscle atrophy and pain. The severity of pain is associated with not only advanced age and prolonged disease duration but also the LDH type and psoas major muscle atrophy.
8.Application of CT and DSA multimodal image fusion technique in interventional therapy for arterial occlusive lesions of lower extremities
Zheyu LV ; Shi ZHOU ; Yaping SHEN ; Hongjie CHEN ; Xiyuan YANG
Journal of Interventional Radiology 2025;34(12):1348-1352
Objective To discuss the application value of CT and DSA multimodal image fusion technology in endovascular interventional therapy for arterial occlusive lesions of lower extremities and to evaluate its efficacy and safety so as to provide a scientific basis for clinical decision-making.Methods A total of 283 lower limbs with arterial complete occlusive lesions,who received treatment at Affiliated Baiyun Hospital of Guizhou Medical University hospital from January 2020 to December 2023,were selected for this study.The 283 diseased lower limbs were randomly divided into study group(n=142)and control group(n=141).In the study group the endovascular interventional therapy assisted by CT and DSA multimodal image fusion technology was adopted,while in the control group the traditional DSA-guided endovascular interventional therapy was employed.The imaging parameters,surgical success rates,X-ray exposure doses,time spent for operation,incidence of postoperative complications,changes of ankle-brachial index(ABI),primary patency rate,assisted primary patency rate,and secondary patency rate were compared between the two groups.Results The surgical success rate in the study group was 96.47%,which was significantly higher than 87.94%in the control group(P<0.05).The mean time spent for operation in the study group was(125.42±23.74)minutes,which was shorter than(147.81±29.33)minutes in the control group.The mean X-ray exposure dose in the study group was(2 856.34±427.82)mGy·cm2,which was lower than(3 674.53±512.60)mGy·cm2 in the control group.The incidence of postoperative complications in the study group was 4.23%,which was significantly lower than 12.57%in the control group(P<0.05).The ABI values of the affected limbs in the study group and control group increased from preoperative(0.65±0.15)and(0.60±0.18)respectively to postoperative(1.09±0.32)and(0.90±0.28)respectively.The postoperative ABI value in the study group was higher than that in the control group(P<0.05).The postoperative 12-month primary patency rate,assisted primary patency rate and secondary patency rate in the study group were 78.17%,85.92%and 90.14%respectively,which were better than 67.38%,75.89%and 80.85%respectively in the control group.Conclusion For arterial occlusive lesions of lower extremities,endovascular interventional therapy with the help of CT and DSA multimodal image fusion technology has high surgical success rates,low incidence of complications,and satisfactory revascularization rate.This technology provides new idea and method for the treatment of arterial occlusive lesions of lower extremities with high clinical safety.Therefore,this technology is worthy of clinical promotion and application.
9.Quantitative evaluation on clinical characteristics of haze after transepithelial photorefractive keratectomy for astigmatism using corneal densitometry
Shuaifei LI ; Changtao YOU ; Lingling XU ; Dongdong CHEN ; Hongjie MA ; Geng LI
International Eye Science 2025;25(9):1420-1424
AIM: To quantitatively evaluate the clinical characteristics of haze after transepithelial photorefractive keratectomy(TPRK)for astigmatism using corneal densitometry.METHODS:In this retrospective clinical study, a total of 74 patients(106 eyes)with astigmatism ≥1.25 D who underwent TPRK in our hospital from October 2022 to December 2024 were continuously collected. All of the study subjects were divided into transparent group(65 eyes)and haze group(41 eyes)based on whether haze occurred after surgery. Pentacam examination was performed before and after surgery, and corneal densitometry was recorded at the time points of preoperation, 1 mo postoperation in the transparent group and the most severe haze degree in the haze group. The collected corneal densitometry included the average densitometry of the entire corneal layer in the central 2 mm, 2-6 mm, and 6-10 mm areas, as well as the average densitometry of the entire layer of the corneal section in the center 6 mm of the astigmatism axis(astigmatism expressed in negative cylindrical form)and orthogonal axis(the axis perpendicular to the astigmatism axis), and the average densitometry of the entire layer of the corneal section in the nasal and temporal 2-6 mm areas of the astigmatism axis in the haze group of patients with regular astigmatism. The change in corneal densitometry after surgery compared with that before surgery was calculated.RESULTS:There was no statistically significant difference in baseline data such as gender, age, and spherical equivalent between the transparent group and the haze group(all P>0.05). The change in corneal densitometry in the 2-6 mm area of the haze group was greater than that in the transparent group(Z=-2.226, P=0.026), while there was no significant difference in the change of corneal densitometry in the central 2 mm and 6-10 mm areas between the two groups(both P>0.05). There was no significant difference in the change of corneal densitometry between the transparent group and haze group along the orthogonal axis(all P>0.05), while the change of corneal densitometry in the haze group along the astigmatism axis was greater than that in the transparent group(Z=-2.371, P=0.018). The temporal corneal densitometry of patients with regular astigmatism in the haze group after surgery was higher than that of the nasal side, and the change in corneal densitometry was also greater than that of the nasal side(Z=-4.288, P<0.001; Z=-4.043, P<0.001).CONCLUSION:Unlike spherical correction for myopia and hyperopia, haze after TPRK for astigmatism was mainly manifested in the peripheral cutting area of the astigmatism axis, and patients with regular astigmatism had a higher probability or severity of haze on the temporal side of the astigmatism axis than on the nasal side.
10.Role of fecal calprotectin testing in predicting endoscopic remission in Crohn′s disease treated with infliximab
Qiong GUO ; Chen CHEN ; Xiaojing ZHAO ; Jingjing MA ; Chunhua JIAO ; Nana TANG ; Hongjie ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Digestion 2025;45(7):469-476
Objective:To explore the relationship between early fecal calprotectin (FC) level and the long-term efficacy of infliximab (IFX) in the treatment of Crohn′s disease (CD) and predictive the value.Methods:From January 2018 to December 2023, at the First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University, the clinical data of patients with moderate-to-severe CD who received IFX as first-line therapy were retrospectively collected. The main outcomes were clinical and endoscopic remission at week 52 after IFX treatment, and the secondary outcome was clinical response at week 14 after IFX treatment. The predictive value of FC levels at week 0 (at baseline when first administered) and week 14 of treatment was evaluated for the clinical and endoscopic remission at week 52 after IFX treatment. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the factors predicting endoscopic remission. The optimal cutoff value was calculated, model was established, the data was divided into training set and validation set at a ratio of 7∶3 using the random number table method and the corresponding column chart was drawn. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model, respectively. Mann-Whitney U test was used for statistical comparison. Results:A total of 165 patients with CD were enrolled, of whom 150 cases (90.9%) achieved clinical response after induction therapy, and 15 cases (9.1%) were primary non-response. Among the 150 patients with clinical response, 112 cases (74.7%) achieved clinical remission at week 52 after treatment, while 38 cases (25.3%) did not achieve clinical remission. Endoscopic evaluation was performed at week 52 after treatment in 139 patients, of whom 54 cases (38.8%) achieved endoscopic remission and 85 cases (61.2%) did not. At week 14 of treatment, there was no statistically significant difference in FC level between the patients achieved and did not achieve clinical response (263.24 (93.96, 675.28) μg/g vs. 556.35 (245.77, 953.56) μg/g, P>0.05). At week 52 after treatment, the FC level of patients who achieved clinical remission was lower than that of patients did not achieve(103.20(44.11, 456.57) μg/g vs. 531.26(222.06, 998.40) μg/g) and the decreased value of FC at week 52 and week 0 after treatment of patients achieved clinical remission was more than that of patients did not achieve clinical remission (443.34 (82.25, 788.95) μg/g vs. 269.91 (-79.20, 522.54) μg/g), and the differences were statistically significant ( U=1 078.00, 2 677.00; P<0.001, =0.018). At week 52 after treatment, the FC level of patients achieved endoscopic remission was lower than that of patients did not achieve endoscopic remission (52.80(31.93, 83.47) μg/g vs. 506.18(217.44, 778.02) μg/g), and the decreased value of FC at week 52 and week 0 after treatment of patients achieved endoscopic remission was more than that of patients did not achieve endoscopic remission (428.85(140.20, 863.60) μg/g vs. 309.61(-62.37, 683.82) μg/g), and the differences were statistically significant ( U=500.00, 2 812.00; P<0.001, =0.025). The FC level at week 14 of treatment could predict the clinical and endoscopic remission at week 52 after treatment (area under the curve (AUC) =0.663, 0.773; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.566 to 0.760, 0.694 to 0.852; P=0.006, <0.001). The optimal cutoff value of FC at week 14 of treatment for predicting endoscopic remission at week 52 after treatment was 246.13 μg/g, with a sensitivity of 0.741 and a specificity of 0.671. The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that FC ≤ 246.13 μg/g at week 14 of treatment ( OR=4.576, 95% CI: 2.021 to 10.363, P<0.001), baseline albumin ( OR=1.093, 95% CI: 1.006 to 1.188, P=0.035), and baseline platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) ( OR=0.995, 95% CI: 0.990 to 1.000, P=0.046) were independent influencing factors of endoscopic remission at week 52 after treatment. A predictive model for endoscopic remission at week 52 after IFX treatment was established based on FC ≤ 246.13 μg/g at week 14 of treatment, baseline albumin and PLR. The results of ROC analysis showed that this model had good discriminative ability, with an AUC of 0.780 (95% CI: 0.700 to 0.878) in the validation set, with a sensitivity of 0.812 and a specificity of 0.760. The results of calibration curve analysis demonstrated that the average absolute error of the prediction model in the validation set was 0.038, and the consistency between the predicted probability and the actual probability was good. Conclusion:FC ≤ 246.13 g/g at week 14 of IFX treatment has good predictive value for endoscopic remission at week 52 after treatment in CD patients.


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