AIM:To evaluate the application effec-tiveness of a Bayesian mixture model based on the principal stratum strategy for estimating the com-plier average causal effect(CACE)in clinical trials with non-compliance.METHODS:Using a non-infe-riority randomized controlled trial investigating a novel drug for primary type 2 diabetes mellitus(non-inferiority margin:-0.4)as a case study,the primary analysis applied a Bayesian mixture model under the monotonicity assumption to estimate CACE of between-group differences in glycated he-moglobin(HbA1c)changes within the compliant stratum,followed by non-inferiority testing.Sensi-tivity analyses included a Bayesian mixture model relaxing the monotonicity assumption and compar-ing results with per-protocol set(PPS)analysis.RE-SULTS:In the primary analysis,the posterior mean of CACE for HbA1c change in the compliant stratum was 0.081％,with a one-sided 97.5％credible inter-val lower bound of-0.124,exceeding the non-infe-riority margin(-0.4％),supporting the non-inferiori-ty efficacy of the novel drug in the compliant stra-tum(P(H1|Data)=1).Consistent findings were ob-served in PPS analyses(estimated effect:0.136％;one-sided 97.5％credible interval lower bound:-0.069％),further validating methodological robust-ness.CONCLUSION:In clinical trials with noncom-pliance as an intercurrent event,the Bayesian mix-ture model under the principal stratum strategy ef-fectively adjusts for compliance-related bias and yields conservative,robust estimates of causal ef-fects,supporting its value in efficacy evaluation un-der complex compliance scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Spicy food consumption has been reported to be inversely associated with mortality from multiple diseases. However, the effect of spicy food intake on the incidence of vascular diseases in the Chinese population remains unclear. This study was conducted to explore this association. METHODS: This study was performed using the large-scale China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) prospective cohort of 486,335 participants. The primary outcomes were vascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD), major coronary events (MCEs), cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and non-stroke cerebrovascular disease. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the association between spicy food consumption and incident vascular diseases. Subgroup analysis was also performed to evaluate the heterogeneity of the association between spicy food consumption and the risk of vascular disease stratified by several basic characteristics. In addition, the joint effects of spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of vascular disease were also evaluated, and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the reliability of the association results. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 12.1 years, a total of 136,125 patients with vascular disease, 46,689 patients with IHD, 10,097 patients with MCEs, 80,114 patients with cerebrovascular disease, 56,726 patients with stroke, and 40,098 patients with non-stroke cerebrovascular disease were identified. Participants who consumed spicy food 1-2 days/week (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = [0.93, 0.97], P <0.001), 3-5 days/week (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = [0.94, 0.99], P = 0.003), and 6-7 days/week (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.002) had a significantly lower risk of vascular disease than those who consumed spicy food less than once a week ( Ptrend <0.001), especially in those who were younger and living in rural areas. Notably, the disease-based subgroup analysis indicated that the inverse associations remained in IHD ( Ptrend = 0.011) and MCEs ( Ptrend = 0.002) risk. Intriguingly, there was an interaction effect between spicy food consumption and the healthy lifestyle score on the risk of IHD ( Pinteraction = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS Our findings support an inverse association between spicy food consumption and vascular disease in the Chinese population, which may provide additional dietary guidance for the prevention of vascular diseases.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Prospective Studies ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Vascular Diseases/etiology* ; Risk Factors ; China/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology* ; East Asian People

Objective:Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), this study aims to analyze the epidemiological trends of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) in China from 1990 to 2021 and to assess the projected disease burden.Methods:Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for IBD in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Annual percent change (EAPC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analyses were employed to evaluate these trends. Additionally, predictions for the disease burden over the next 25 years were made.Results:The age-standardized incidence rate of IBD in China rose from 0.74 per 100 000 in 1990 to 1.40 per 100 000 in 2021, an 89.19% increase. The age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 5.59 per 100 000 in 1990 to 9.16 per 100 000 in 2021, marking a 63.86% rise. Conversely, the age-standardized case fatality rate decreased from 0.75 per 100 000 in 1990 to 0.33 per 100 000 in 2021, a reduction of 56.00%. The total DALYs decreased from 162 186 in 1990 to 136 932 in 2021, a decline of 15.57%, while the age-standardized DALY rate fell from 18.38 per 100 000 in 1990 to 7.68 per 100 000 in 2021, a decrease of 58.22%. Analysis by age group revealed that the age-standardized incidence rate for the 35-39 years cohort increased most significantly, with an EAPC of 3.23%. The age-standardized prevalence rate for the 50-54 years cohort increased most significantly, with an EAPC of 2.85%. Gender analysis indicated that from 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rate was higher among females than males, but the age-standardized case fatality rate rate was higher among males. From 2004 to 2021, the age-standardized DALY rate declined for both sexes, though it remained higher in males. By 2046, the number of new cases is projected to be slightly higher in males, while case fatality rate and DALYs are expected to remain low for both genders.Conclusions:Over the past three decades, the disease burden of IBD in China has increased significantly, particularly in terms of incidence and prevalence. Despite a general decrease in case fatality rates, the burden of IBD may increase in the elderly population due to aging demographics. Therefore, effective preventive measures, early screening, and aggressive treatment are crucial, especially for the elderly.

To explore the application of sequential analysis in post-market safety dynamic surveillance of vaccines. Under the dynamic monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, this research introduces the fundamental principles of maximizing sequential probability ratio test (MaxSPRT) and Bayesian sequential analysis, employing R software. Through an example of dynamic safety monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, we analyze using the MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis. The MaxSPRT identified a safety signal in week 4 ( P<0.05), while Bayesian sequential analysis indicated that the 95% highest density interval for the RR value at week 4 is 1.13-3.27, suggesting the first appearance of a safety signal at week 4. The MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis effectively leverage continuously accumulating dynamic monitoring data, thereby serving as a valuable method for post-market safety surveillance of vaccines.

Objective:Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), this study aims to analyze the epidemiological trends of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) in China from 1990 to 2021 and to assess the projected disease burden.Methods:Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for IBD in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Annual percent change (EAPC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analyses were employed to evaluate these trends. Additionally, predictions for the disease burden over the next 25 years were made.Results:The age-standardized incidence rate of IBD in China rose from 0.74 per 100 000 in 1990 to 1.40 per 100 000 in 2021, an 89.19% increase. The age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 5.59 per 100 000 in 1990 to 9.16 per 100 000 in 2021, marking a 63.86% rise. Conversely, the age-standardized case fatality rate decreased from 0.75 per 100 000 in 1990 to 0.33 per 100 000 in 2021, a reduction of 56.00%. The total DALYs decreased from 162 186 in 1990 to 136 932 in 2021, a decline of 15.57%, while the age-standardized DALY rate fell from 18.38 per 100 000 in 1990 to 7.68 per 100 000 in 2021, a decrease of 58.22%. Analysis by age group revealed that the age-standardized incidence rate for the 35-39 years cohort increased most significantly, with an EAPC of 3.23%. The age-standardized prevalence rate for the 50-54 years cohort increased most significantly, with an EAPC of 2.85%. Gender analysis indicated that from 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rate was higher among females than males, but the age-standardized case fatality rate rate was higher among males. From 2004 to 2021, the age-standardized DALY rate declined for both sexes, though it remained higher in males. By 2046, the number of new cases is projected to be slightly higher in males, while case fatality rate and DALYs are expected to remain low for both genders.Conclusions:Over the past three decades, the disease burden of IBD in China has increased significantly, particularly in terms of incidence and prevalence. Despite a general decrease in case fatality rates, the burden of IBD may increase in the elderly population due to aging demographics. Therefore, effective preventive measures, early screening, and aggressive treatment are crucial, especially for the elderly.

Objective:To summarize the surgical strategies and to evaluate the clinical outcomes of up-per urinary tract reconstruction in patients with stone-related ureteral strictures.Methods:This retro-spective study included 71 patients diagnosed with ureteral strictures secondary to urinary stones who un-derwent upper urinary tract reconstructive surgery at Peking University First Hospital between March 2014 and November 2023.Patient data were collected,including demographic characteristics,clinical presen-tation,laboratory results,imaging findings,surgical procedures,and follow-up outcomes.Ureteral stric-tures were classified according to anatomical location into upper,middle,lower,or multiple segments.Surgical procedures were carried out depending on the stricture characteristics.Surgical success was de-fined as resolution or improvement of clinical symptoms,radiographic improvement or stabilization of hy-dronephrosis,and maintenance of normal and stable renal function.Results:Among the 71 patients,36(50.7％)had strictures in the upper ureter,9(12.7％)in the middle ureter,15(21.1％)in the lower ureter,and 11(15.5％)had multifocal ureteral strictures.The median stricture length was 5.0 cm(interquartile range:3.0-15.0 cm).Surgical approach selection was individualized based on the location and extent of the stricture.For upper ureteral strictures,the most frequently employed techniques were oral mucosal graft ureteroplasty(13/36,36.1％)and appendiceal flap ureteroplasty(8/36,22.2％).Other options included ureteroureterostomy and ileal ureter replacement for longer or more complex strictures.In middle ureteral strictures,treatment was stratified by length:balloon dilation(1/9,11.1％)and ureteroureterostomy(1/9,11.1％)were applied in shorter strictures,while oral mucosal graft ureteroplasty(3/9,33.3％)and ileal ureter replacement(4/9,44.4％)were reserved for longer segments.For lower ureteral strictures,ureteral reimplantation into the bladder was the most common approach(10/15,66.7％),often combined with a psoas hitch or Boari flap when necessary.All the patients with multiple segmental strictures underwent ileal ureter replacement due to the extensive nature of the disease.The median follow-up period was 14.2 months(range:6.1-107.1 months).During follow-up,69 of 71 patients(97.2％)achieved surgical success.Conclusion:Stone-related ure-teral strictures present with considerable heterogeneity in terms of anatomical location,length,and com-plexity.Careful preoperative evaluation and individualized surgical planning are critical to successful re-construction.With appropriate selection of surgical methods,favorable long-term clinical outcomes can be achieved in the majority of patients.

Objective:To summarize the surgical strategies and to evaluate the clinical outcomes of up-per urinary tract reconstruction in patients with stone-related ureteral strictures.Methods:This retro-spective study included 71 patients diagnosed with ureteral strictures secondary to urinary stones who un-derwent upper urinary tract reconstructive surgery at Peking University First Hospital between March 2014 and November 2023.Patient data were collected,including demographic characteristics,clinical presen-tation,laboratory results,imaging findings,surgical procedures,and follow-up outcomes.Ureteral stric-tures were classified according to anatomical location into upper,middle,lower,or multiple segments.Surgical procedures were carried out depending on the stricture characteristics.Surgical success was de-fined as resolution or improvement of clinical symptoms,radiographic improvement or stabilization of hy-dronephrosis,and maintenance of normal and stable renal function.Results:Among the 71 patients,36(50.7％)had strictures in the upper ureter,9(12.7％)in the middle ureter,15(21.1％)in the lower ureter,and 11(15.5％)had multifocal ureteral strictures.The median stricture length was 5.0 cm(interquartile range:3.0-15.0 cm).Surgical approach selection was individualized based on the location and extent of the stricture.For upper ureteral strictures,the most frequently employed techniques were oral mucosal graft ureteroplasty(13/36,36.1％)and appendiceal flap ureteroplasty(8/36,22.2％).Other options included ureteroureterostomy and ileal ureter replacement for longer or more complex strictures.In middle ureteral strictures,treatment was stratified by length:balloon dilation(1/9,11.1％)and ureteroureterostomy(1/9,11.1％)were applied in shorter strictures,while oral mucosal graft ureteroplasty(3/9,33.3％)and ileal ureter replacement(4/9,44.4％)were reserved for longer segments.For lower ureteral strictures,ureteral reimplantation into the bladder was the most common approach(10/15,66.7％),often combined with a psoas hitch or Boari flap when necessary.All the patients with multiple segmental strictures underwent ileal ureter replacement due to the extensive nature of the disease.The median follow-up period was 14.2 months(range:6.1-107.1 months).During follow-up,69 of 71 patients(97.2％)achieved surgical success.Conclusion:Stone-related ure-teral strictures present with considerable heterogeneity in terms of anatomical location,length,and com-plexity.Careful preoperative evaluation and individualized surgical planning are critical to successful re-construction.With appropriate selection of surgical methods,favorable long-term clinical outcomes can be achieved in the majority of patients.

To explore the application of sequential analysis in post-market safety dynamic surveillance of vaccines. Under the dynamic monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, this research introduces the fundamental principles of maximizing sequential probability ratio test (MaxSPRT) and Bayesian sequential analysis, employing R software. Through an example of dynamic safety monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, we analyze using the MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis. The MaxSPRT identified a safety signal in week 4 ( P<0.05), while Bayesian sequential analysis indicated that the 95% highest density interval for the RR value at week 4 is 1.13-3.27, suggesting the first appearance of a safety signal at week 4. The MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis effectively leverage continuously accumulating dynamic monitoring data, thereby serving as a valuable method for post-market safety surveillance of vaccines.

AIM:To evaluate the application effec-tiveness of a Bayesian mixture model based on the principal stratum strategy for estimating the com-plier average causal effect(CACE)in clinical trials with non-compliance.METHODS:Using a non-infe-riority randomized controlled trial investigating a novel drug for primary type 2 diabetes mellitus(non-inferiority margin:-0.4)as a case study,the primary analysis applied a Bayesian mixture model under the monotonicity assumption to estimate CACE of between-group differences in glycated he-moglobin(HbA1c)changes within the compliant stratum,followed by non-inferiority testing.Sensi-tivity analyses included a Bayesian mixture model relaxing the monotonicity assumption and compar-ing results with per-protocol set(PPS)analysis.RE-SULTS:In the primary analysis,the posterior mean of CACE for HbA1c change in the compliant stratum was 0.081％,with a one-sided 97.5％credible inter-val lower bound of-0.124,exceeding the non-infe-riority margin(-0.4％),supporting the non-inferiori-ty efficacy of the novel drug in the compliant stra-tum(P(H1|Data)=1).Consistent findings were ob-served in PPS analyses(estimated effect:0.136％;one-sided 97.5％credible interval lower bound:-0.069％),further validating methodological robust-ness.CONCLUSION:In clinical trials with noncom-pliance as an intercurrent event,the Bayesian mix-ture model under the principal stratum strategy ef-fectively adjusts for compliance-related bias and yields conservative,robust estimates of causal ef-fects,supporting its value in efficacy evaluation un-der complex compliance scenarios.

Objective:To investigate the clinical features and therapeutic efficacy of patients with hereditary leiomyomatosis and renal cell carcinoma(RCC) syndrome-associated RCC (HLRCC-RCC) in China.Methods:The clinical data of 119 HLRCC-RCC patients with fumarate hydratase (FH) germline mutation confirmed by genetic diagnosis from 15 medical centers nationwide from January 2008 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Among them, 73 were male and 46 were female. The median age was 38(13, 74) years. The median tumor diameter was 6.5 (1.0, 20.5) cm. There were 38 cases (31.9%) in stage Ⅰ-Ⅱand 81 cases (68.1%) in stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ. In this group, only 11 of 119 HLRCC-RCC patients presented with skin smooth muscle tumors, and 44 of 46 female HLRCC-RCC patients had a history of uterine fibroids. The pathological characteristics, treatment methods, prognosis and survival of the patients were summarized.Results:A total of 86 patients underwent surgical treatment, including 70 cases of radical nephrectomy, 5 cases of partial nephrectomy, and 11 cases of reductive nephrectomy. The other 33 patients with newly diagnosed metastasis underwent renal puncture biopsy. The results of genetic testing showed that 94 patients had FH gene point mutation, 18 had FH gene insertion/deletion mutation, 4 had FH gene splicing mutation, 2 had FH gene large fragment deletion and 1 had FH gene copy number mutation. Immunohistochemical staining showed strong 2-succinocysteine (2-SC) positive and FH negative in 113 patients. A total of 102 patients received systematic treatment, including 44 newly diagnosed patients with metastasis and 58 patients with postoperative metastasis. Among them, 33 patients were treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) combined with immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI), 8 patients were treated with bevacizumab combined with erlotinib, and 61 patients were treated with TKI monotherapy. Survival analysis showed that the median progression-free survival (PFS) of TKI combined with ICI was 18 (5, 38) months, and the median overall survival (OS) was not reached. The median PFS and OS were 12 (5, 14) months and 30 (10, 32) months in the bevacizumab combined with erlotinib treatment group, respectively. The median PFS and OS were 10 (3, 64) months and 44 (10, 74) months in the TKI monotherapy group, respectively. PFS ( P=0.009) and OS ( P=0.006) in TKI combined with ICI group were better than those in bevacizumab combined with erlotinib group. The median PFS ( P=0.003) and median OS ( P=0.028) in TKI combined with ICI group were better than those in TKI monotherapy group. Conclusions:HLRCC-RCC is rare but has a high degree of malignancy, poor prognosis and familial genetic characteristics. Immunohistochemical staining with strong positive 2-SC and negative FH can provide an important basis for clinical diagnosis. Genetic detection of FH gene germ line mutation can confirm the diagnosis. The preliminary study results confirmed that TKI combined with ICI had a good clinical effect, but it needs to be confirmed by the results of a large sample multi-center randomized controlled clinical study.