1.Cost-utility analysis of anlotinib combined with penpulimab in first-line treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma
Wenying YAN ; Na YANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Xinyue TAO ; Shengnan GAO ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(3):344-349
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anlotinib combined with penpulimab versus sorafenib as first- line treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS Based on data from the APOLLO study, a partitioned survival model was established with a 21-day model cycle to simulate patient survival status over 10 years under anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen or sorafenib monotherapy. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was used as the core evaluation parameter to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment regimens. Using 3 times China’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, cost-utility analysis was performed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the treatment regimens. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the robustness of the baseline analysis conclusion. Scenario analysis was performed to consider the impact of anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs on the results; the price reduction of penpulimab to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the combination regimen was examined under varying WTP thresholds (specifically, 1, 2, and 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024). RESULTS The baseline analysis revealed that the ICER of anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen relative to the sorafenib regimen was 338 611.20 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold set in this study. Univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the utility value of progression free survival and penpulimab price significantly influenced the baseline analysis results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the baseline results. The results of scenario analysis indicated that when considering the assistance programs for anlotinib and penpulimab, the obtained ICER values were all below the WTP threshold set at 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024. When the price of penpulimab was reduced by 58%, 35%, and 13%, the ICER values were below the WTP threshold, which was 1, 2 and 3 times the per capita GDP of China in 2024, respectively. CONCLUSIONS From the perspective of China’s healthcare system, anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen for first-line treatment of uHCC lacks cost-effectiveness compared to sorafenib regimen. However, this conclusion would be reversed if the anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs are taken into account or if the price of penpulimab is reduced by more than 13% and above.
2.Cost-utility analysis of amivantamab combined with lazertinib in the first-line treatment of EGFR-mutated advanced NSCLC
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Congxin LI ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(5):633-638
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of amivantamab combined with lazertinib (hereinafter referred to as “AL”) regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on updated data from the MARIPOSA study, with a 10-year time horizon and 28-day cycles. The primary outcome index was quality adjusted life year (QALY), and the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at three times China’s per capita GDP in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY). Cost-utility analysis was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AL regimen versus osimertinib monotherapy regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced NSCLC. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test model robustness. Scena rio analyses were conducted to explore the impact of utility values for different health states on the outcomes and determine the required price reductions of amivantamab and lazertinib to achieve cost-effectiveness. RESULTS Compared with the osimertinib monotherapy regimen, the ICER for the AL regimen as first-line treatment for advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC was 2 062 096.15 yuan/QALY, significantly exceeding the WTP threshold established in this study. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the utility value of progression-free survival state and the price of amivantamab were the primary factors influencing the ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the AL regimen only became cost-effective when the WTP threshold was set at 2 050 000 yuan/QALY. Scenario analysis indicated that altering the utility value still rendered the AL regimen non-cost-effective. When amivantamab (350 mg) prices decreased by 80%, 85%, and 90% respectively, lazertinib (80 mg) prices would need to decrease by 95.97%, 40.63%, 5.29%, respectively. This would enable the AL regimen’s ICER to consistently fall within the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS At the WTP threshold established in this study, the AL regimen does not demonstrate cost-effectiveness for first-line treatment of advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC compared to the osimertinib monotherapy regimen. Significant price reductions for both drugs would be required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
3.Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant in the second-line treatment of HR+/HER2− locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Congxin LI ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Yue WANG ; Ziyi LIU ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):1033-1038
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant as second-line treatment for patients with hormone receptor-positive(HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2–) locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, within the context of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on the CULMATE-1 study, with a simulation time horizon set at 15 years and a cycle length of 28 days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant versus fulvestrant monotherapy as second-line treatment for HR+/HER2– breast cancer was calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the robustness of the model. Meanwhile, scenario analysis of culmerciclib price reduction was conducted; the required price reduction and price to reach the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in this study were calculated. RESULTS The results of the base-case analysis indicated that, compared with the fulvestrant monotherapy regimen, culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant yielded an additional 0.823 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with a corresponding ICER of 371 696.26 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold (199 330 yuan/QALY). The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost of culmerciclib, the discount rate, the utility values for progression disease and progression free survival status were significant factors influencing the ICER; both the univariate sensitivity analysis and the probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the model results. Scenario analysis indicated that when the price of culmerciclib was reduced by 30%, 55% and 85% respectively, the corresponding ICER values fell below 3, 2, and 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2025, with the probability of cost-effectiveness being 3.00%, 94.90%, 100%. When the cost of culmerciclib (60 mg) was reduced by 52.6% to 50.96 yuan, the ICER value met the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS When the WTP threshold is set at twice China’s per capita GDP in 2025, second-line treatment with culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant for HR+/HER2– locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer does not exhibit cost-effectiveness advantage over fulvestrant monotherapy. Therefore, a reasonable price reduction is required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
4.Cost-effectiveness analysis of onradivir and oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza A in adults
Yongzan ZHANG ; Shengnan GAO ; Xianying WANG ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(12):1579-1583
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of onradivir versus oseltamivir in the treatment of influenza A in adults from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS Based on data from a phase Ⅲ clinical trial (NCT04683406), a decision tree model was constructed to simulate the efficacy and cost of using onradivir versus oseltamivir in treating adult patients with influenza A, with a cycle length of 5 days and a simulation period of 29 days. The two drug prices correspond to the median listing prices published by Yaozhi Network and the national negotiated prices. Patient characteristics and influenza utility values were derived from the phase Ⅲ clinical trial of onradivir, and medical costs and complication utility values were sourced from published literature. Quality-adjusted life year(QALY) was used as an effect indicator, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio(ICER) of onradivir versus oseltamivir was calculated, using China’s per capita disposable income in 2025 (43 377 yuan) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the results. One-way and probabilistic analyses were performed to verify the robustness of the results. RESULTS Compared with the oseltamivir regimen, the onradivir regimen yielded an incremental 0.000 67 QALY with direct medical cost savings of 12.41 yuan, thus being a dominant strategy. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the utility values on day 15 of oseltamivir treatment, the incidence of influenza pneumonia in the oseltamivir group and the costs of the two drugs significantly affected the results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that at the pre-specified WTP threshold, onradivir had a 70.6% probability of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS At a WTP threshold set at the 2025 per capita disposable income of China, compared with oseltamivir, onradivir can improve the health outcomes of adult patients with influenza A and reduce costs, demonstrating greater cost-effectiveness.
5.Meteorological factor-driven prediction of high-use days of budesonide: construction and comparison of ensemble learning models
Qitao CHEN ; Yue ZHOU ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Jingwen NI ; Guoqiang SUN ; Fenfei GAO ; Lizhen XIA ; Zihao LI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(21):2723-2726
OBJECTIVE To construct ensemble learning models for predicting high-use days of budesonide based on meteorological factors, thereby providing reference for hospital pharmacy management. METHODS Meteorological data for 2024 and outpatient budesonide usage data from the jurisdiction of Sanming Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine were collected. High-use days were defined as the 75th percentile of outpatient budesonide usage, and a corresponding dataset was established. The prediction task was formulated as a classification problem, and three ensemble learning models were developed: Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and log-loss. Model interpretability was analyzed using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). RESULTS The Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier achieved the best performance (accuracy=0.75, F1-score=0.48), followed by XGBoost (accuracy=0.74, F1-score=0.43) and Random Forest (accuracy=0.72, F1-score=0.22). SHAP results suggested that the prediction results of the last two models have the highest correction. CONCLUSIONS Ensemble learning models can effectively predict high-use days of budesonide, with the Histogram- based Gradient Boosting Classifier demonstrating the best predictive performance. Low temperature, high humidity, and low atmospheric pressure show significant positive impacts on the prediction of daily budesonide usage.
6.Disease burden of coal workers' pneumoconiosis in China from 1990 to 2021 and projection of future trends: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study of 2021
Guoqiang DONG ; Ying ZHANG ; Lichun QIAO ; Miaoqian LI ; Ronghui LEI ; Xiangyu FAN ; Ying LIU ; Xinxin WEI ; Jing HAN
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2025;42(10):1162-1169
Background China is a major coal producer and consumer country in the world. Coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) is a primary factor endangering the occupational health of coal miners. Research on the disease burden of CWP and its changing trend is significant for disease prevention & control and associated policies. Objective To analyze the disease burden of CWP in China from 1990 to 2021 and its changing trend, and predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2035. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database of 2021, numbers ofincident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as crude and age-standardized rates of CWP in China were retrieved. Linear regression model was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rates. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and the disease burden of different sexes and age groups, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast the trend of CWP disease burden. Results In 1990, the incident, prevalent, and deaths cases of CWP in China were
7.Mechanisms of SnRK1 in regulating the stress responses, growth, and development of plants.
Jingmin REN ; Guoqiang WU ; Xinmiao ZHANG ; Ming WEI
Chinese Journal of Biotechnology 2025;41(7):2579-2595
Sucrose non-fermenting 1-related protein kinase 1 (SnRK1) is one of the highly conserved Ca2+ non-dependent serine/threonine protein kinases, playing a crucial role in regulating the stress responses, growth, and development of plants. SnRK1 is a three-subunit complex, and it is involved in responding to the signaling transduction induced by low-energy/low-sugar conditions. SnRK1 responds biotic and abiotic stress conditions (such as salt, drought, low/high temperatures, and diseases) through phosphorylation of key metabolic enzymes and regulatory proteins, regulation of transcription, and interactions with other proteins. Furthermore, SnRK1 is not only involved in hormone signaling pathways mediated by abscisic acid (ABA), jasmonic acid (JA) and salicylic acid (SA), but also regulates plant autophagy by inhibiting the activity of target of rapamycin (TOR). In this review, we summarized the current results of research on the discovery, structure, and classification of plant SnRK1 and its roles in the stress responses, growth, and development of plants. Furthermore, this article proposes the directions of future research. This review provides good genetic resources and a theoretical basis for the genetic improvement and biological breeding for enhancing the stress tolerance of crops.
Stress, Physiological/physiology*
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Protein Serine-Threonine Kinases/metabolism*
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Plant Development/genetics*
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Signal Transduction
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Gene Expression Regulation, Plant
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Plant Proteins/physiology*
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Plants/metabolism*
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Arabidopsis Proteins/physiology*
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Plant Growth Regulators/metabolism*
8.Research on the Algorithm of Mining Information of Traditional Chinese Herb System Biology Based on Graph Neural Net-work
Daifeng ZHANG ; Guoqiang BIAN ; Jiayi HE ; Jiadong XIE ; Chenjun HU ; Kongfa HU
Journal of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;41(4):483-493
OBJECTIVE To provide help for further exploring the mechanism of action of traditional Chinese herb by constructing a complex network of traditional Chinese herb-gene-protein,optimizing the mining method of potential associated genes of traditional Chinese herb and improving the mining efficiency of traditional Chinese herb system biology information.METHODS A graph neural network model HERBGAT with an attention mechanism was proposed.A small amount of traditional Chinese herb-related gene data in the public data platform was used as input,and deep mining was performed in the traditional Chinese herb-gene-protein complex net-work to output potential traditional Chinese herb-related genes.The prediction results were analyzed by disease association analysis and KEGG signaling pathway analysis on the bioinformatics platform to clarify their mechanism of action,and the prediction results were verified by the literature retrieval platform.RESULTS The training results showed that the average prediction accuracy of the HERB-GAT model could reach 94%.Compared with the other two advanced complex network mining methods,HERBGAT showed better per-formance in the three indicators of ACC,AUC and AUPR.In the literature verification stage,the model prediction results were verified by TCM clinical literature and modern pharmacology literature,showing the good effect of HERBGAT in practical application.At the end of this paper,taking the HERBGAT model and the improved EMOGI model to explore the mechanism of action of Pinellia ternata in treating lung cancer as an example,199 potential associated genes of Pinellia ternata in treating lung cancer were found,and these potential associated genes were preliminarily analyzed and discussed with the help of bioinformatics methods.CONCLUSION The HERBGAT model can effectively mine potential traditional Chinese herb-associated genes,improve the mining efficiency of traditional Chinese herb-gene-protein complex networks,provide new ideas and references for the optimization of traditional Chinese herb system biology information mining methods,and provide data basis and experimental direction for exploring the mechanism of action of tradi-tional Chinese herb.
9.Study on the Deglycosylation Metabolism of Dioscin and Its Impact on the Proliferation of Human Colon Cancer Cells
Guoqiang ZHANG ; Zhenyao LU ; Huan WANG ; Bing HU ; Hong CAI
Journal of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;41(4):494-500
OBJECTIVE To investigate the deglycosylation metabolism of dioscin in vivo and the changes of its anti-tumor activi-ty of its deglycosylated metabolites.METHODS An LC-MS/MS analysis method for simultaneous determination of dioscin and its deglycosylation metabolites was established to study the cumulative excretion amount of dioscin and its deglycosylated metabolites in rat feces after oral administration.To mimic its deglycosylation metabolism,HPLC method was applied to investigate the time-dependent changes in the prototype components and metabolites of dioscin after incubation in artificial gastric juice.Solid-phase extraction tech-nology was employed to isolate the product of dioscin following hydrolysis by artificial gastric juice.The cytotoxic effects of this product on human colon cancer cells HCT-116 were assessed using the CCK-8 assay across different hydrolysis time periods.Concurrently,the enzymatic activities of caspase-3 and caspase-9,along with the expression levels of cytochrome C,were measured to elucidate the impact of dioscin post-hydrolysis on the cytotoxicity against HCT-116 cells.RESULTS Dioscin and its series of deglycosylated me-tabolites were detected in rat feces,revealing no significant differences in the cumulative excretion amounts of Polyphyllin Ⅴ and Pro-genin Ⅱ.Dioscin was shown to generate a range of deglycosylated metabolites in artificial gastric juice.Furthermore,dioscin and its deglycosylated metabolites inhibited the proliferation of HCT-116 cells,induced morphological changes,and increased the enzymatic activities of caspase-3 and caspase-9,as well as cytochrome C expression.However,it was observed that the antitumor activity of the deglycosylated metabolites diminished with prolonged hydrolysis time.CONCLUSION The deglycosylation metabolism of dioscin sig-nificantly attenuates its inhibitory effect on the proliferation of HCT-116 cells.Suppressing the acid-mediated or gut microbiota-medi-ated deglycosylation metabolism may be a promising strategy to preserve its antitumor activity.
10.Flexion versus extension wound closure position in total knee arthroplasty: a meta-analysis
Ke ZHOU ; Xin ZHI ; Jinyuan XIE ; Ming NI ; Guoqiang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(18):1201-1207
Objective:To analyze the impact of wound closure in knee flexion versus extension on postoperative outcomes after total knee arthroplasty (TKA).Methods:Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the effects of knee flexion versus extension wound closure on TKA outcomes were retrieved from databases including CNKI, WanFang Data, Chinese Medical Journal Full-text Database, PubMed, Medline, Cochrane Library, and Embase, from inception to October 1, 2024. Outcome measures include knee range of motion (ROM), Knee Society score (KSS), visual analogue scale (VAS), and incidence of postoperative complications at different time points. Meta-analysis was performed using Stata 18.0. The methodological quality of included RCTs was assessed using the modified Jadad scale. A fixed-effects model was applied when heterogeneity was low, while a random-effects model was used when heterogeneity was high.Results:A total of 467 patients from 7 RCTs were included (233 in flexion group, 234 in extension group). The mean age was 66.4 years in the flexion group and 66.7 years in the extension group, with a follow-up ranging from 1 to 12 months. All studies were of high quality. The meta-analysis revealed that the flexion group had significantly greater knee ROM at 1 month [ WMD=3.72, 95% CI(3.12, 4.33), P<0.001] and 3 months [ WMD=5.31, 95% CI(0.79, 9.84), P=0.020] postoperatively compared to the extension group. At 6 months postoperatively, the flexion group showed significantly higher KSS [ WMD=-1.25, 95% CI(-1.51, -0.99), P<0.001]. No significant differences were found in ROM at 6 months [ WMD=0.89, 95% CI(-0.99, 2.77), P=0.350], VAS at 3 months [ WMD=-0.28, 95% CI(-1.59, -0.03), P=0.075], or complication rates [ RD=0.03, 95% CI(-0.01,0.07), P=0.198]. Conclusion:Wound closure in knee flexion can improve early knee range of motion within 3 months and functional outcomes at 6 months after TKA.

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