BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as the causative agent of COVID-19 has significantly challenged the public health landscape in late 2019. After almost 3 years of the first ever SARS-CoV-2 case, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of this global health emergency in May 2023. Although, despite the subsequent drop of COVID-19 cases, the SARS-CoV-2 infection still exhibited multiple waves of infection, primarily attributed to the appearance of new variants. Five of these variants have been classified as Variants of Concern (VOC): Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and the most recent, Omicron. Therefore, the development of methods for the timely and accurate detection of viral variants remains fundamental, ensuring an ongoing and effective response to the disease. This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of the application of an in-house approach in genomic surveillance for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants using in silico designed primers.

METHODS

The primers used for the study were particularly designed based on conserved regions of certain genes in the virus, targeting distinct mutations found in known variants of SARS-CoV-2. Viral RNA extracts from nasopharyngeal samples (n=14) were subjected to quantitative and qualitative tests (Nanodrop and AGE). Selected samples were then analyzed by RT-PCR and amplicons were submitted for sequencing. Sequence alignment analysis was carried out to identify the prevailing COVID-19 variant present in the sample population.

RESULTS

The study findings demonstrated that the in-house method was able to successfully amplify conserved sequences (spike, envelope, membrane, ORF1ab) and enabled identification of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant among the samples. Majority of the samples were identified as Omicron variant. Three out of four designed primers effectively bound into the conserved sequence of target genes present in the sample, revealing the specific SARSCoV-2 variant. The detected mutations characterized for Omicron found in the identified lineages included K417N, S477N, and P681H which were also identified as mutations of interest. Furthermore, identification of the B.1.448 lineage which was not classified in any known variant also provided the potential of the developed in-house method in detecting unknown variants of COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Among the five VOCs, Omicron is the most prevalent and dominant variant. The in-house direct PCR product sequencing surveillance (DPPSS) method provided an alternative platform for SAR-CoV-2 variant analysis which is accessible and affordable than the conventional diagnostic surveillance methods and the whole genome sequencing. Further evaluation and improvements on the oligonucleotide primers may offer significant contribution to the development of a specific and direct PCRbased detection of new emerging COVID-19 variants.

Sars-cov-2 ; Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Dna Primers ; Oligonucleotide Primers ; Computer Simulation ; Conserved Sequence ; Coronavirus ; Covid-19 ; Disease ; Emergencies ; Evaluation Studies As Topic ; Genes ; Genome ; Global Health ; Health ; Identification (psychology) ; Infection ; Infections ; Membranes ; Methods ; Mutation ; Oligonucleotides ; Organizations ; Population ; Public Health ; Rna ; Rna, Viral ; Sars Virus ; Sequence Alignment ; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ; Syndrome ; Viruses ; Whole Genome Sequencing ; World Health Organization

Congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities (CMLD) seriously affect the physical and mental health of patients, and pose great challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. We explored the specific situation and changes of incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years rates, and mortality of CMLD in under-5 children from 1990 to 2021 in different groups, including different regions, periods, genders and socio-demographic indices (SDI), through corresponding analytical models. Overall, the global disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children has decreased from 1990 to 2021. The disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children varied significantly among different regions and countries, and there was a strong correlation between the corresponding burden of disease and the level of SDI. In addition, cross-country inequality analysis showed that while absolute inequalities in the disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children have improved, relative inequalities have worsened. It is essential to reduce the global health impact of CMLD by implementing targeted interventions to improve health care in underdeveloped areas.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Infant ; Male ; Prevalence ; Limb Deformities, Congenital/mortality* ; Musculoskeletal Abnormalities/mortality* ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Cost of Illness ; Socioeconomic Factors

OBJECTIVE: Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change. RESULTS: In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma. CONCLUSION Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.
Humans ; Asthma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Child ; Adolescent ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Young Adult ; Infant ; Cost of Illness ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Aged, 80 and over ; Risk Factors

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the burden of lower respiratory infections in Chinese elderly people aged 70 and above. METHODS: This study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2050 prediction data to analyze changes in mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for lower respiratory infections in the elderly population (aged 70 and above) in China from 1990 to 2050. It also discusses future trends in the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRI) in China under different scenarios. RESULTS: According to GBD predictions, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly aged 70 years and above in China is lower than the global average. The burden has been decreasing from 1990 to 2020, but is projected to increase from 2020 to 2050. Scenario-based predictions suggest that, under scenarios involving improvements in nutrition and vaccination, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly in China is expected to be the lowest in 2050. CONCLUSION This study indicates that the burden of lower respiratory infections in elderly people aged 70 years and above in China remains a significant public health issue and may worsen. The government should consider strengthening the preventive measures and management strategies for respiratory infections in the elderly population.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Respiratory Tract Infections/mortality* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Male ; Female ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Global Burden of Disease ; Cost of Illness

OBJECTIVE: The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden, but studies on its trends are limited. Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034. METHODS: COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends, and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing, and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories, except for a few Southeastern Asian countries. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034, respectively. Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group. The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen, though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one. CONCLUSION COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk, especially in countries with rising rates. Urgent action on tobacco control, air pollution, and public education is needed.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/mortality* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Incidence ; Asia/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Prevalence ; Cost of Illness ; Aged, 80 and over ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Young Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent

OBJECTIVE: To describe survival trends and global patterns of esophageal cancer (EC) using survival data from population-based cancer registries. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, SEER, and SinoMed databases for articles published up to 31 December 2023. Eligible EC survival estimates were evaluated according to country or region, period, sex, age group, pathology, and disease stage. RESULTS: After 2010, Jordan exhibited the highest age-standardized 5-year relative survival rates (RSRs)/net survival rates (NSRs) at 41.1% between 2010 and 2014, while India had the lowest, at 4.1%. Survival rates generally improved with diagnostic age across most countries, with significant increases in South Korea and China, of 12.7% and 10.5% between 2000 and 2017, respectively. Survival was higher among women compared to men, ranging from 0.4%-10.9%. Survival rates for adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma were similar, differing by about 4%. In China, the highest age-standardized RSRs/NSRs was 33.4% between 2015 and 2017. Meanwhile, the lowest was 5.3%, in Qidong (Jiangsu province) between 1992-1996. CONCLUSION Global EC survival rates have improved significantly in recent decades, but substantial geographical, sex, and age disparities still exist. In Asia, squamous cell carcinoma demonstrated superior survival rates compared to adenocarcinoma, while the opposite trend was observed in Western countries. Future research should clarify the prognostic factors influencing EC survival and tailor prevention and screening strategies to the changing EC survival patterns.
Humans ; Esophageal Neoplasms/mortality* ; Registries ; Male ; Female ; Survival Analysis ; Middle Aged ; Survival Rate ; Aged ; Global Health

Climate and weather significantly influence the duration, timing, and intensity of disease outbreaks, reshaping the global landscape of infectious diseases. Rising temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns driven by climate change can directly impact the survival and reproduction of pathogens and vector organisms. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate extreme weather events, including floods and droughts, which can disrupt infrastructure and increase the risk of water- and foodborne diseases. There are potential shifts in the temporal and spatial patterns of infectious disease transmission owing to climate change. Furthermore, climate change may alter the epidemiology of vaccine-preventable diseases. These climatic variations not only affect the ecological characteristics of pathogens and vectors but also indirectly influence human behaviors and socioeconomic conditions, further amplifying disease transmission risks. Addressing this challenge requires an interdisciplinary collaboration and comprehensive public health strategies. This review aims to synthesize the current evidence on the impact of climate change on climate-sensitive infectious diseases and elucidate the underlying mechanisms and transmission pathways. Additionally, we explored adaptive policy strategies to mitigate the public health burden of infectious diseases in the context of climate change, offering insights for global health governance and disease control efforts.
Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/transmission* ; Humans ; Animals ; Global Health

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the current status and temporal trends of the disease burden of spinal fractures in China from 1990 to 2021 based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), aiming to provide evidence for developing prevention and treatment strategies. METHODS: Epidemiological data on spinal fractures in China, the United States of America (USA), and globally were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Joinpoint regression models were applied to analyze temporal trends. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were calculated, with comparisons of gender- and age-group disparities. RESULTS: In 2021, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs of spinal fractures in China increased by 52.28%, 113.68%, and 106.98%, respectively, compared to 1990. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates rose by 11.80%, 16.11%, and 14.79%, respectively. The disease burden escalated significantly with age, peaking in individuals aged ≥75 years. Males exhibited higher age-standardized incidence and DALYs rates than females. Comparative analysis revealed that the age-standardized DALYs rate in China (4.19/100 000) was lower than that in globally (6.62/100 000) and USA (15.92/100 000). However, China showed an upward trend [annual average percentage change (AAPC)=0.19%], contrasting with a declining trend in the USA (AAPC=-0.08%). CONCLUSION The escalating disease burden of spinal fractures in China is closely linked to population aging, gender disparities, and insufficient targeted prevention policies. Future strategies should integrate age- and gender-specific interventions, including strengthened osteoporosis prevention, trauma risk control, and big data-driven precision measures, to mitigate this burden.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Male ; Female ; Spinal Fractures/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Adult ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Aged, 80 and over ; United States/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child

OBJECTIVE:  To estimate the population attributable disease burden (PAD) of low bone mineral density (LBMD) related fractures (fragility fractures) among Chinese people over 50 years old from 1990 to 2023, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023), and to provide evidence for prevention strategies and health resource allocation. METHODS:   Based on the GBD 2023, the LBMD summary exposure values (SEV), fracture incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and LBMD-related falls YLDs of Chinese people over 50 years old from 1990 to 2023 were extracted. PAD was calculated with population attributable fraction (PAF), and an entropy-weight method was applied to evaluate the contribution of individual fracture sites. Temporal trends and sex differences were examined with Joinpoint regression. RESULTS:  From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized SEV of LBMD in people over 50 years old showed an overall decline [average annual percent change (AAPC)=-0.564%]. Age-standardized fracture incidence, fracture YLDs rate, and LBMD-related falls YLDs rate all exhibited W-shaped upward trends (AAPC=1.045%, 0.296%, and 0.724%, respectively). PAF-based estimates indicated that LBMD-attributable fracture incidence likewise increased in a "W-shaped" manner (AAPC=0.558%), whereas the corresponding YLDs rate showed an overall W-shaped decline (AAPC=-0.193%). In international comparison, China and the global average displayed broadly concordant directions of change, with greater volatility in China and a progressive narrowing of the gap after 2015. Regarding sex differences, fracture YLDs rates were consistently higher in the males, whereas the other burden indicators were higher in the females; the temporal patterns were similar in both sexes. Entropy weight method identified hip fractures as contributing most to incidence (weight 0.133), and pelvic fractures as the largest contributor to YLDs rate (weight 0.115). CONCLUSION Since 1990, the LBMD attributable fracture burden in China's older population has risen, with female and hip or pelvic fractures bearing the heaviest load. Strengthened osteoporosis screening, improved insurance coverage, and targeted health education are urgently needed to curb further increases in disease burden.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Female ; Male ; Bone Density ; Aged ; Incidence ; Osteoporotic Fractures/epidemiology* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Accidental Falls/statistics & numerical data* ; Cost of Illness ; Global Burden of Disease ; Osteoporosis/complications* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Fractures, Bone/epidemiology*

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the disease burden of pelvic fractures at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2023 using data from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), and to predict the disease burden through 2050. METHODS: Leveraging data from the GBD 2023, this study investigated the disease burden of pelvic fractures across 204 countries and regions. Assessment indicators included incidence rate, prevalence rate, and years lived with disability (YLDs). The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze trends in pelvic fracture burden from 1990 to 2023, while the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify this temporal trend. The relationship between the socio-demographic index and pelvic fracture burden was evaluated. Furthermore, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model was applied to predict trends in pelvic fracture burden through 2050. RESULTS: In 2023, the estimated number of new pelvic fracture cases globally was 7 479 884 [95% uncertainty interval ( UI): 5 293 401-10 611 876], representing a 42.74% increase from 1990. In the same year, the number of prevalent pelvic fracture cases and YLDs were 23 007 508 (95% UI: 21 021 518-25 327 165) and 3 909 228 person-years (95% UI: 2 725 498-5 194 385), respectively. Additionally, age-standardized rates exhibited an opposing downward trend. Significant disparities in the disease burden of pelvic fractures were identified across different age groups, genders, and social contexts. According to predictions from the LSTM model, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of pelvic fractures will be approximately 88.44 per 100 000 persons by 2050, while the total number of incident cases will rise to 8 547 095. CONCLUSION Although the overall incidence rate, prevalence rate, and YLDs of pelvic fractures have exhibited an upward trend over the past three decades, the ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized years of life lost rate (ASYR) have shown a downward trend. It is predicted that over the upcoming 26-year period, the age-standardized rate of disease burden due to pelvic fractures will further decrease, while the number of incident cases and prevalent cases will continue to exhibit an upward trend. Formulating more targeted disease prevention strategies is critical to addressing disparities across genders, regions, and other dimensions, and to mitigating the burden of pelvic fractures.
Humans ; Fractures, Bone/epidemiology* ; Pelvic Bones/injuries* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Global Health ; Adolescent ; Cost of Illness ; Young Adult ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Memory, Short-Term