1.Association of mixed exposure to lithium, vanadium, uranium, and bismuth in early pregnancy with gestational weight gain
Jiao LI ; Qi LI ; Shuang CHENG ; Jiayi SONG ; Xiaohui GUO ; Xiang WANG ; Di CHENG ; Kefeng FAN ; Ju WANG
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(4):475-484
Background Gestational weight gain is closely related to maternal and infant health outcomes. Pregnant women are simultaneously exposed to four metals—lithium (Li), vanadium (V), uranium (U), and bismuth (Bi)—through inhalation of fine particulate matter and consumption of contaminated food and water. Existing studies suggest that exposure to these metals may be associated with gestational weight gain. However, no study has yet explored the complex relationships between exposure to mixtures of these four metals and weight gain at different stages of pregnancy. Objective To investigate the associations between mixed exposure to Li, V, U, and Bi in early pregnancy and the average weekly gestational weight gain during both early pregnancy and mid-to-late pregnancy. Methods This prospective study recruited eligible women in early pregnancy from an obstetrics clinic of a tertiary hospital in Jinan, China, between September 2021 and July 2023. Pre-pregnancy weight, current weight (at 11+0 to 13+6 weeks of gestation), and spot urine samples (≥5.0 mL) were collected at enrollment. Urinary concentrations of Li, V, Bi, and U were determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Participants were followed up in late pregnancy (≥28 weeks of gestation) to collect information on physical activity via questionnaire; weight measurements at the last antenatal visit (35+0 to 37+6 weeks of gestation) were obtained from the hospital information system. After adjusting for covariates, multiple linear regression and generalized additive models were used to assess the associations of individual metals with weekly weight gain in early pregnancy and in mid-to-late pregnancy. Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and quantile-based g-computation (Qgcomp) were applied to evaluate the joint effects of the metal mixture exposure on weekly weight gain at the two gestational stages. Results A total of 313 pregnant women were included. The geometric means of urinary Li, V, U, and Bi concentrations were 37.07, 0.20, 0.06, and 0.04 μg·L−1, respectively; after creatinine adjustment, the corresponding values were 46.82, 0.25, 0.07, and 0.05 μg·g−1 (Cr). The mean weekly gestational weight gain was (0.19±0.25) kg in early pregnancy and (0.53 ± 0.18) kg in mid-to-late pregnancy. Both multiple linear regression and generalized additive models showed that urinary V concentration was positively associated with average weekly gestational weight gain in early pregnancy, while no significant associations were found for other metals or for gestational weight gain in mid-to-late pregnancy. In the BKMR model with early-pregnancy weight gain as the outcome, V had the strongest association [posterior inclusion probability (PIP)=0.773]. When other metals were fixed at their medians, V showed a positive non-linear association with the outcome. A significant single-metal effect of V and its interaction with Li were observed. Compared with the 50th percentile of the metal mixture, the average weekly weight gain in early pregnancy increased by 0.016 (95%CI: 0.003, 0.029) and 0.018 (95%CI: 0.001, 0.036) at the 60th and 65th percentiles, respectively; conversely, at the 25th percentile, it decreased by 0.026 (95%CI: 0.002, 0.050). Overall, the joint effect of the metal mixture on early- pregnancy weight gain showed an upward trend. In the BKMR model for mid-to-late pregnancy gestational weight gain, all PIPs were<0.5, and no significant single-metal effects, interactions, or joint effects were identified. Qgcomp results confirmed a positive association between the metal mixture and early-pregnancy weight gain (b=0.031, 95%CI: 0.010, 0.051; P<0.01), with V contributing the highest positive weight (0.71). No significant association was found for weight gain in mid-to-late pregnancy (b=0.007, P=0.339). Conclusion Higher levels of co-exposure to the Li, V, Bi, and U metal mixture during early pregnancy may be associated with increased average weekly weight gain in early pregnancy. Among these metals, V exhibits a predominant role and appears to interact with Li. No association is observed between early-pregnancy metal mixture exposure and average weekly gestational weight gain in mid-to-late pregnancy. These findings suggest that monitoring and managing metal exposure during early pregnancy may be crucial for the rational regulation of gestational weight gain.
2.Effect of Oral Sodium Butyrate on Skeletal Muscle Atrophy via The Gut-muscle Axis in Antibiotic-pretreated CT26 Tumor-bearing Mice and Its Mechanism
Shu-Ling ZHANG ; Jun-Wei WANG ; Shi-Liang HU ; Tu-Tu WANG ; Shun-Chang LI ; Jia FAN ; Jun-Zhi SUN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(3):724-739
ObjectiveTo explore the effect of oral sodium butyrate on skeletal muscle atrophy in CT26 tumor mice through the gut microbiota-skeletal muscle axis and its potential mechanism. MethodsSixty SPF BALB/c male mice aged 8 weeks were randomly divided into a normal control group (NC, n=18) and a ABX-depleted group (ABX, n=42). The ABX mice were pretreated with a quadruple antibiotic cocktail via oral gavage (0.2 ml per administration, once daily, 6 d per week, for 2 weeks), whereas NC received an equal volume of sterile water. The quadruple antibiotic cocktail consisted of metronidazole (1 g/L), vancomycin (0.5 g/L), ampicillin (1 g/L), and gentamicin (1 g/L). Following successful pretreatment, six mice from each group were randomly selected for gut microbiota sequencing analysis and designated as the Abx group and the NC0 group, respectively. Theremaining mice in ABX were subcutaneously inoculated in the dorsum with 0.2 ml of CT26 cell suspension (at a cell density of 1×107/ml). Then these mice were randomly allocated into three subgroups: a control tumor bearing model group (0_NaB, n=12), a tumor-bearing model group receiving low-dose oral sodium butyrate (L_NaB, n=12), a tumor-bearing model group receiving high-dose oral sodium butyrate (H_NaB, n=12). And mice in NC were inoculated at the same site with 0.2 ml of normal saline. The administration dose for L_NaB was 0.3 g/(kg·d), that for H_NaB was 0.5 g/(kg·d), while NC and 0_NaB were given the same volume of normal saline (0.2ml per time, once daily, 6 d per week, for 4 weeks). The general condition of mice was monitored, and forelimb grip strength gastrocnemius muscle mass and its muscle fiber cross-sectional area were measured for each group. The structural changes in gut microbiota were assessed by 16S rRNA sequencing of cecal contents. Pathological alterations in the intestinal wall were examined via HE staining. Serum and gastrocnemius muscle levels of TNF‑α, IL-6, IL-1β, and LPS were quantified using ELISA. The protein expression of ZO-1 and occludin in the small intestine, as well as proteins associated with the TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB signaling pathway in the gastrocnemius muscle, were detected by Western blot analysis. Results(1) The alpha-diversity in Abx was significantly lower than that in NC0 (P<0.01), a significant decrease of the mass and muscle fiber cross-sectional area of the gastrocnemius (P<0.01), with the majority of gut microbiota being effectively depleted. (2) Compared with NC, the subcutaneous tumors of mice in 0_NaB were prominent, a significant increase of the mass and muscle fiber cross-sectional area of the gastrocnemius, accompanied by a significant decrease in body weight at the end of the 3th and 4th week (P<0.05), and a significant weakening of the forelimb grasping strength at the 5th and 6th week (P<0.01). Compared with 0_NaB, the tumor mass of mice in L_NaB and H_NaB showed a significant decreasing trend, and the grip strength of the forelimbs significantly increased at the 5th and 6th week (P<0.05, P<0.01). (3) Compared with 0_NaB, the Shannon and Observed species indices in α diversity of L_NaB and H_NaB were significantly increased (P<0.05). At the genus level, compared with 0_NaB, L_NaB exhibited a significant decrease in the relative abundance of Parasutterella (P< 0.01), while H_NaB showed significant reductions in the relative abundances of both Escherichia-Shigella and Parasutterella (P < 0.01). (4) Compared with 0_NaB, the small intestinal tissue structure in L_NaB and H_NaB was more intact, the infiltration of inflammatory cells was significantly reduced, and the capillaries were slightly dilated. The expression levels of ZO-1 and occludin proteins in L_NaB were significantly increased (P<0.01). (5) The LPS concentration in the gastrocnemius muscle and the protein expression levels of TLR4, MyD88, p-IκBα, and p-NF‑κB p65 in L_NaB and H_NaB were significantly lower than those in 0_NaB (P<0.05). The serum TNF‑α concentration in H_NaB and TNF-α concentration in the gastrocnemius muscle of the L_NaB and H_NaB were significantly lower than those in 0_NaB (P<0.05, P<0.01, P<0.01). ConclusionOral administration of NaB can improve gut microbiota α diversity, adjusting its composition, improving intestinal mucosal barrier function, reducing the LPS-induced pro-inflammatory response, and delaying skeletal muscle atrophy. The underlying mechanism may involve down regulation of TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB signaling in skeletal muscle.
3.Efficacy and safety of surgery-assisted transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis
Zhenhua FAN ; Chengbin DONG ; Qimei LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Yifan WU ; Dongfang LIU ; Guangzhong XU ; Dezhong WANG ; Jianfei CHEN ; Zhendong YUE ; Lei WANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(3):586-592
ObjectiveTo investigate the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of surgery-assisted transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (SA-TIPS) in the treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis, including cavernous transformation of the portal vein (CTPV). MethodsAn analysis was performed for the data of 36 patients with portal hypertension and complex portal vein thrombosis who underwent SA-TIPS in Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, from November 2023 to January 2025, including general status, technical data of the surgical process (surgical success rate, puncture times, time of operation, the number of stents used, and the length of shunt), perioperative complications, and surgical recovery. The change in portal pressure gradient (PPG) after shunt was compared, and the rate of reaching the standard for PPG reduction was calculated, as well as stent patency rate within 1 week after surgery. The paired samples t-test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups. ResultsAmong the 36 patients, 34 (94.4%) underwent SA-TIPS successfully. The incidence rate of perioperative complications was 16.7% (6/36), including 3 cases of thoraco-abdominal hemorrhage, 2 cases of intraoperative arrhythmia, and 1 case of incision infection. There was a significant reduction in PPG after SA-TIPS (t=19.85, P<0.01), and the patients achieving a ≥50% reduction in PPG accounted for 76.5% (26/34). Imaging reexamination within 1 week showed a shunt patency rate of 100%. ConclusionSA-TIPS has a high technical success rate, a favorable safety profile, and good efficacy in the treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis (including CTPV), and therefore, it holds promise for clinical application.
4.Single-center analysis of unplanned reoperation case after liver transplantation
Zhi CHEN ; Qingqing DAI ; Fan HUANG ; Guobin WANG ; Xiaojun YU ; Ruolin WU ; Liujin HOU ; Zhenghui YE ; Xinghua ZHANG ; Wei WANG ; Xiaoping GENG ; Hongchuan ZHAO
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(3):452-459
Objective To analyze the main causes and risk factors of unplanned reoperation after liver transplantation. Methods The clinical data of 242 liver transplant recipients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2015 to December 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether unplanned reoperation was performed during the same hospitalization after surgery, the recipients were divided into the reoperation group (n=36) and the non-reoperation group (n=206). The preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative data of the two groups, as well as donor and graft-related data, were compared to analyze the risk factors of unplanned reoperation after liver transplantation and the survival status of the two groups. Results Among the 242 liver transplant recipients, 36 underwent unplanned reoperations, with a total of 54 procedures including various laparotomies, endoscopic and interventional surgeries, among which there were 20 laparotomies, 18 endoscopic surgeries and 16 interventional surgeries. The most common cause of unplanned reoperation was biliary complications (20 times), followed by vascular complications (17 times). Compared with the non-reoperation group, the reoperation group had longer graft cold ischemia time, higher postoperative fatality rate of recipients, longer length of stay in the intensive care unit and postoperative hospital stay, and higher total hospitalization costs (all P<0.05). The incidence of unplanned reoperation was higher in recipients who underwent split liver transplantation (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that intraoperative blood loss ≥1 000 mL, positive culture of graft perfusate and split liver transplantation were independent risk factors for unplanned reoperation (all P<0.05). The postoperative 7-day, 1-month, 3-month and 6-month survival rates of recipients in the reoperation group and the non-reoperation group were 100% vs. 98.1%, 88.9% vs. 94.2%, 69.4% vs. 90.8% and 66.7% vs. 90.8%, respectively, and the postoperative survival rate of recipients in the reoperation group was lower than that in the non-reoperation group (P<0.05). Conclusions The main causes of unplanned reoperation after liver transplantation are biliary complications, vascular complications, abdominal incision infection and intra-abdominal hemorrhage. Intraoperative massive blood loss, positive culture of graft perfusate and split liver transplantation are the risk factors associated with unplanned reoperation after liver transplantation.
5.Research progress on the intervention of sarcopenia with traditional Chinese medicine based on the AMPK signaling pathway
Wenyu FAN ; Bairong HUANG ; Congmin HONG ; Yan CHEN ; Jiayin WANG ; Jing GAO ; Xiaodong FENG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(9):1229-1235
arcopenia is a systemic skeletal muscle disorder characterized by a decrease in skeletal muscle mass and progressive decline in function, with multiple signaling pathways involved in its occurrence and development. Among them, the AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) signaling pathway, as a key pathway regulating cellular energy homeostasis, plays an important role in the regulation of skeletal muscle metabolism and functional maintenance by improving abnormalities in glucose and lipid metabolism, balancing skeletal muscle protein synthesis and degradation, improving mitochondrial function, promoting autophagy, and inhibiting inflammatory responses and oxidative stress. This article reviews the research progress on how various traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) monomers, including polyphenols, flavonoids, and terpenoids; various traditional Chinese medicine extracts, such as those from Lycium barbarum , Asini Corii Colla, and Panax quinquefolium , and TCM compounds, such as Guiqi zhuangjin decoction, Jianpi qiangji granules, and Qigu capsules, intervene in sarcopenia by regulating the AMPK signaling pathway to promote muscle protein synthesis, inhibit protein degradation, improve mitochondrial function, and alleviate inflammation and oxidative stress. Additionally, their molecular mechanisms are explored. The aim is to deeply elucidate the basis of TCM in the prevention and treatment of sarcopenia and to provide theoretical support for the development of related innovative drugs.
6.Quercetin Ameliorates Gouty Arthritis in Rats via ROS/NLRP3/IL-1β Signaling Pathway
Baowei FENG ; Yan WANG ; Chang LI ; Yujing ZHANG ; Dingxing FAN ; Xin LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):145-153
ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of quercetin on acute gouty arthritis (GA) in rats by inhibiting the reactive oxygen species (ROS)/NOD-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3)/interleukin-1β (IL-1β) signaling pathway. MethodsSixty SPF-grade male SD rats were randomized into normal, model, colchicine (0.3 mg·kg-1), and low-, medium-, and high-dose (25, 50, 100 mg·kg-1, respectively) quercetin groups (n=10). The rats in the dosing groups were administrated with the corresponding drugs (10 mL·kg-1) by gavage once a day for one week. An equal volume of normal saline was given by gavage to rats in normal and model groups. One hour after drug administration on day 5, an acute GA model was established in other groups except the control group via intra-articular injection of monosodium urate (MSU) suspension into the right posterior ankle joint cavity. The joint swelling and gait were scored at the time points of 6, 12, 24, 48 h after modeling. Histopathological alterations in the ankle joint tissue from each group were assessed by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Malondialdehyde (MDA), xanthine oxidase (XOD), and total superoxide dismutase (T-SOD) assay kits were used to assess the levels of MDA, XOD, and T-SOD in the serum. The levels of tumor interleukin-6 (IL-6), necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and IL-1β in the rat serum, as well as ROS in the ankle joint tissue, were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Western blot was performed to determine the protein levels of NLRP3, thioredoxin-interacting protein (TXNIP), apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a CARD domain (ASC), precursor cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase-1 (pro-Caspase-1), cleaved Caspase-1 (Caspase-1 p20), and IL-1β in the ankle joint tissue. Real-time PCR was employed to assess the mRNA levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, IL-1β, and TNF-α in the ankle joint tissue. ResultsCompared with the normal group, the model group exhibited decreased spontaneous activity, mental fatigue, increased ankle joint swelling and gait scores (P<0.01), aggravated synovial tissue edema and inflammatory cell infiltration (P<0.01), elevated levels of XOD, MDA, TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 in the serum and ROS in the joint tissue (P<0.01), a declined level of T-SOD (P<0.01), up-regulated protein levels of NLRP3, TXNIP, ASC, pro-Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, and IL-1β in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.01), and up-regulated mRNA levels of NLRP3, TXNIP, ASC, IL-1β, and TNF-α in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the medium- and high-dose quercetin groups showed improved general conditions, decreased gait scores (P<0.05, P<0.01), reduced joint swelling (P<0.01), alleviated synovial tissue edema and inflammatory cell infiltration (P<0.05, P<0.01), lowered levels of XOD, MDA, TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 in the serum and ROS in the joint tissue (P<0.01), increased levels of T-SOD (P<0.01), down-regulated protein levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, pro-Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, and IL-1β in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.05, P<0.01), and down-regulated mRNA levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, IL-1β, and TNF-α in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.01). Low-dose quercetin also ameliorated some of the above parameters (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionQuercetin exerts anti-GA effects by blocking the ROS/NLRP3/IL-1β signaling pathway, downregulating NLRP3 inflammasome activation, and inhibiting the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines including TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6.
7.Sanren Runchang Formula Regulates Brain-gut Axis to Treat IBS-C: A Randomized Controlled Trial
Teng LI ; Xinrong FAN ; He YAN ; Zhuozhi GONG ; Mengxi YAO ; Na YANG ; Yuhan WANG ; Huikai HU ; Wei WEI ; Tao LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):154-161
ObjectiveTo observe the clinical efficacy of Sanren Runchang formula in treating constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS-C) by regulating the brain-gut axis and the effects of the formula on serum levels of 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT), vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP), and substance P (SP). MethodsA randomized controlled design was adopted, and 72 IBS-C patients meeting Rome Ⅳ criteria were randomized into observation and control groups (36 cases).The observation group received Sanren Runchang formula granules twice daily, and the control group received lactulose oral solution daily for 4 weeks. IBS Symptom Severity Scale (IBS-SSS), IBS Quality of Life Scale (IBS-QOL), and Bristol Stool Form Scale (BSFS) were used to assess clinical symptoms, and bowel movement frequency was recorded. The Self-Rating Anxiety Scale (SAS) and Self-Rating Depression Scale (SDS) were employed to evaluate psychological status. ELISA was employed to measure the serum levels of 5-HT, VIP, and SP. ResultsThe total response rate in the observation group was 91.67% (33/36), which was higher than that (77.78%, 28/36) in the control group (χ2=4.50, P<0.05). After treatment, both groups showed increased defecation frequency and BSFS scores, decreased IBS-SSS total score, abdominal pain and bloating scores, IBS-QOL health anxiety, anxiety, food avoidance, and behavioral disorders scores, SAS and SDS scores, serum 5-HT and VIP levels, and increased SP levels (P<0.05, P<0.01). Moreover, the observation group showed more significant changes in the indicators above than the control group (P<0.05, P<0.01). The SP level showed no significant difference between the two groups. During the 4-week follow-up, the recurrence rate was 5.88% in the observation group and 31.25% in the control group. No adverse events occurred in observation group, and 2 cases of mild diarrhea occurred in the control group. ConclusionSanren Runchang formula demonstrated definitive efficacy in alleviating gastrointestinal symptoms and improving the psychological status and quality of life in IBS-C patients, with a low recurrence rate. The formula can regulate serum levels of neurotransmitters such as 5-HT and VIP, suggesting its potential regulatory effect on the brain-gut axis through modulating neurotransmitters and neuropeptides. However, its complete mechanism of action requires further investigation through detection of additional brain-gut axis-related biomarkers.
8.The Philosophical Implications of "Xiang (Manifestation)" and "Xing (Physique)" and Their Theoretical Construction and Future Value in Traditional Chinese Medicine
Yongyan WANG ; Yan MA ; Yipin FAN
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(1):2-9
As a pair of core categories in traditional Chinese philosophy, "xiang (manifestation)" and "xing (physique)" together construct a cognitive paradigm distinct from the western subject-object dichotomy. Both originate from the common ontological foundation of "qi" , exhibiting a dialectical unity between "xiang" which is characterized by change, virtuality, and functionality, and "xing" which is characterized by determinacy, substance, and structure. Their relationship achieves profound unity through shared origins, mutual transformation, and interdependence as substance and function. This dialectical "xiang-xing" paradigm is deeply embedded in the theoretical system of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). It is reflected in the multi-layered construction of visceral manifestation theory, the cognitive approach of "inferring the viscera through manifestation" , the clinical practice of "treating the physique by observing the manifestation", and the academic feature of "emphasizing qi and body, unifying body and qi". Looking to the future, the "xiang-xing" paradigm can not only provide a philosophical foundation and methodological guidance for the modernization of TCM theory and the integration of Chinese and western medicine, but also demonstrate unique practical value in areas such as clinical precision diagnosis and treatment, innovative development and quality control of Chinese herbal medicine. Therefore, it can promote the creative transformation and innovative deve-lopment of TCM, and contribute holistic and dynamic Chinese wisdom to contemporary life sciences.
9.A bibliometric and visual analysis of the literature published in the journal of Organ Transplantation since its inception
Xi CAO ; Tao HUANG ; Qiwei YANG ; Lin YU ; Xiaowen WANG ; Wenfeng ZHU ; Haoqi CHEN ; Ning FAN ; Genshu WANG
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):133-142
Objective To systematically analyze the literature characteristics of Journal of Organ Transplantation since its inception. Methods Using the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) academic journal full-text database as the data source, all articles published in the Journal of Organ Transplantation from January 2010 to August 2025 were retrieved. After excluding non-academic papers, a total of 1 568 research papers were included. R language 4.3.0, Bibliometrix package 3.2.1, and Citespace software were used to analyze the number of publications, publishing institutions, authors, keywords and other aspects. Results The number of publications in Journal of Organ Transplantation increased from an average of 82 articles per year in the early years after its inception to 113 articles per year in recent years, a growth of 37.8%. The geographical distribution of publishing institutions covers 32 provinces, cities and autonomous regions nationwide, mainly concentrated in the South China, East China and North China regions, and has now basically covered the central and western regions in recent years. The author collaboration network includes 45 authors distributed across 7 major collaboration clusters, forming a stable multi-level national research system centered on key university-affiliated hospitals. The high-frequency keywords are dominated by "liver transplantation" (425 times) and "kidney transplantation" (396 times). The theme evolution shows a clear three-stage characteristic: initially focusing on clinical technology application, deepening to immune mechanism exploration in the middle stage, and recently (since 2022) focusing on cutting-edge research areas such as xenotransplantation. Conclusions Journal of Organ Transplantation has witnessed the rapid development of China's organ transplantation cause, fully reflecting the research status and trends in China's organ transplantation field, and has provided an important platform for the future development and international cooperation in China's organ transplantation field.
10.Analysis and prediction of incidence and mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City from 2016 to 2027
ZHOU Fan ; WANG Xiaohon ; CHEN Mengqian ; ZHANG Xiaolan ; XU Zelin
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):26-30
Objective:
To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2024, and to predict the incidence and mortality from 2025 to 2027, so as to provide the evidence for improving regional colorectal cancer prevention and control strategies.
Methods:
Data on incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City from 2016 to 2024 were collected through the Zhejiang Chronic Disease Surveillance Information Management System. The crude incidence and crude mortality were calculated, and standardized using the data from the Sixth National Population Census in 2010. Trends in incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer from 2016 to 2024 were analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC). A grey Markov model was constructed to predict the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027.
Results:
From 2016 to 2024, the crude incidence and standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City were 46.90/100 000 and 30.69/100 000, respectively, showing upward trends (AAPC=4.594% and 2.051%, both P<0.05). The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 17.47/100 000 and 10.36/100 000, respectively, and the trends were not statistically significant (both P>0.05). The standardized incidence and standardized mortality of colorectal cancer in males were higher than those in females (35.38/100 000 vs. 25.68/100 000, 11.96/100 000 vs. 8.57/100 000, both P<0.05). The crude incidence and crude mortality of colorectal cancer in the ≥80 years age group were the highest, at 220.04/100 000 and 186.86/100 000, respectively. From 2016 to 2024, the standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in males and females showed upward trends (AAPC=5.069% and 3.965%, both P<0.05), while the trends in standardized mortality were not statistically significant (all P>0.05). The crude incidence in the 70-<80 years age group showed an upward trend (AAPC=1.320%, P<0.05), and the crude mortality in the 40-<50 years age group showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.756%, P<0.05). Trends in other age groups were not statistically significant (all P>0.05). The prediction results of the grey Markov model showed that the predicted values of crude incidence and crude mortality of colorectal cancer in the whole population would increase from 58.20/100 000 and 20.04/100 000 in 2025 to 61.70/100 000 and 21.26/100 000 in 2027.
Conclusions
From 2016 to 2024, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City showed upward trends, while the mortality trend was stable. Males and the elderly aged ≥80 years are high-risk populations for colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. It is predicted that both crude incidence and crude mortality will increase from 2025 to 2027.


Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail