1.Comparative Study on Effect of Jingui Shenqiwan and Liuwei Dihuangwan on Reproductive Ability and Brain Function of Normal Mice
Hong SUN ; Fan LEI ; Chenggong LI ; Rui LUO ; Shixian HU ; Bin REN ; Juan HAO ; Yi DING ; Lijun DU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):1-14
ObjectiveTo explore the effects of Jingui Shenqiwan (JSW) and Liuwei Dihuangwan (LDW) on the reproductive ability and brain function of normal mice and compare the actions of the two medications. MethodsSeven groups of female and male mice were divided at a ratio of 2∶1. Except for the control group, the other six groups were as follows: a group of both males and females receiving JSW (3.0 g·kg-1), a group of both males and females receiving LDW (4.5 g·kg-1), a group of males receiving water and females receiving JSW, a group of males receiving water while females receiving LDW, a group of females receiving water while males receiving JSW, and a group of females receiving water while males receiving LDW. Each group was administered the drug for 14 days and then caged together at a 2∶1 (female∶male) ratio to detect the number of pregnant mice and calculate the pregnancy rate. Pregnant mice continued receiving the drug until they naturally gave birth, which was followed by the observation of newborn mice, calculation of their average number, and the measurement of the offspring's preference for sugar water and neonatal recognition index. At the end of the experiment, the weights of the thymus and spleen were measured to calculate the organ coefficients, and mRNA or protein expression was analyzed in the brain and testes or ovaries. A 1% sucrose solution was used to examine the euphoria of their brain reward systems, while novel object recognition test (NOR) was applied to assess their memory capabilities. mRNA expression was detected using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) assay, and protein expression was analyzed with Western blot. ResultsCompared with the control group, oral administration of JSW to both male and female mice for 14 days significantly increased the pregnancy rate of female mice on day 2 after being caged together (P<0.05), while LDW showed a trend but no statistical significance. Additionally, compared with the control group, JSW could upregulate the gene expression of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) in the thalamus, as well as reproductive stem cell factor (SCF) and tyrosine kinase receptor (c-Kit) in the testes and reproductive stem cell marker mouse vasa homologue (MVH) in the ovaries, upregulate the expression of proteins influencing neuronal functional activity, such as brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), in hippocampal neurons (P<0.05), and enhance sucrose preference in male mice (P<0.05). Compared with the control group, JSW significantly increased sucrose preference and novel object recognition index in offspring mice (P<0.05), which was related to the upregulation of hippocampal dopamine D1 receptor (D1R) and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (Nmdar) gene expression. Compared with the control group, both JSW and LDW could upregulate the protein expression of glucocorticoid receptor (GR), BDNF, and tyrosine kinase receptor B (TrkB) in the hippocampus of offspring mice (P<0.05). ConclusionJSW significantly enhances the reproductive ability of normal mice, which is not only related to the release of gonadotropin but also associated with its regulation of brain function. Additionally, JSW has a certain regulatory effect on the brain function of the offspring mice.
2.Jingmaiyan Granules Combined with External Application of Jinhuang Ointment in Treatment of Acute Stage Blood Heat Stasis Type Superficial Thrombophlebitis of Lower Extremities: A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Clinical Trial
Qiaoyilan LIANG ; Hong CHEN ; Weijing FAN ; Hongshuo SHI ; Fangfang WU ; Guobin LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(5):196-202
ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of Jingmaiyan granules (composed of Lonicerae Japonicae Flos, Sedi Herba, Paeoniae Radix Rubra, Moutan Cortex, Rhei Radix et Rhizoma Praeparata, and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma) combined with external application of Jinhuang Ointment in treating acute-stage blood heat stasis type superficial thrombophlebitis (ST) of lower extremities, and to explore their effects on hemorheology and serum inflammatory factors. MethodsA randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial was conducted. A total of 124 patients with lower extremity ST were randomized into two groups(62 cases in each group). The control group received external application of Jinhuang ointment and oral placebo treatment, while the observation group received external application of Jinhuang ointment and oral Jingmaiyan granules. Both groups were treated for 2 weeks. The clinical symptom scores, therapeutic efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome, pain visual analog scale (VAS) scores, hemorheological indices [including whole blood high-shear, medium-shear, and low-shear viscosity, as well as plasma viscosity (PV)], and inflammatory factors [C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)] were compared before and after treatment. ResultsAfter 2 weeks of treatment, the total effective rate in the observation group (98.3%, 60/62) was significantly higher than that in the control group (83.8%, 52/62), with a statistically significant difference (Z=3.512 1, P<0.05). Compared with pre-treatment scores, the scores for skin color, skin temperature, swelling, pain, and cord or nodules were significantly reduced in both groups (P<0.05), with more pronounced improvement in the observation group (P<0.05). Additionally, compared with pre-treatment levels, the whole blood viscosity (low-, medium-, and high-shear) significantly improved in both groups after treatment (P<0.05), with more marked improvement in the observation group (P<0.05). Furthermore, the plasma viscosity, CRP, IL-6, and TNF-α levels were significantly reduced in both groups after treatment (P<0.05), with more pronounced improvement observed in the observation group (P<0.05). ConclusionThe combination of external application of Jinhuang ointment and oral Jingmaiyan granules effectively improves clinical symptoms, hemorheological abnormalities, and inflammatory responses in patients with acute stage blood heat stasis type ST of lower extremities. The treatment is safe and holds clinical promotion value.
3.Mechanisms of Yishen Juanbi Pills-containing Bone Marrow Fluid in Improving Kidney-deficiency Rheumatoid Arthritis by Regulating CD4+ T Lymphocyte Differentiation via SDF-1/CXCR4 Signaling Pathway
Jinlin TONG ; Yuyao WANG ; Hong LIU ; Jinghua PAN ; Danping FAN ; Hongyan ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(4):90-99
ObjectiveTo investigate the effects of Yishen Juanbi pills (YSJB)-containing bone marrow fluid on the migration and differentiation phenotypes of CD4⁺T lymphocytes based on the stromal cell-derived factor-1/chemokine receptor 4 (SDF-1/CXCR4) signaling pathway. MethodsPrimary CD4⁺T lymphocytes were isolated from mice using magnetic bead separation and identified for purity by flow cytometry. A CD4⁺T lymphocyte culture system was then established to observe the effects of SDF-1 on CD4⁺T-cell migration and differentiation. On this basis, the experimental groups included the Sham group, the ovariectomy (OVX) group, the Sham+collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) group, the OVX+CIA group, the Sham+CIA+YSJB group (2.16 g·kg-1), the OVX+CIA+YSJB group (2.16 g·kg-1), and the OVX+CIA+methotrexate (MTX) group (1.5 mg·kg-1). Bone marrow fluid from each group was prepared according to previous methods and added to the CD4⁺ T-cell culture system at 5% (v/v). Transwell assays were used to examine CD4⁺T-cell migration in each group. Real-time PCR was used to measure the mRNA expression levels of interleukin (IL)-17, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), retinoic-acid-related orphan receptor γt (RORγt), IL-10, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β), forkhead box P3 (FoxP3), CXCR4, phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K), and protein kinase B (Akt). Western blot was used to detect the expression of helper T (Th)17/regulatory T (Treg) cell signature factors (RORγt, FoxP3), CXCR4, PI3K, phosphorylated (p)-PI3K, Akt, and p-Akt. In a separate set of experiments, cells were divided into the Sham group, OVX+CIA group, OVX+CIA+CXCR4 antagonist AMD3100 group, and OVX+CIA+YSJB+AMD3100 group to observe changes in the above indicators following AMD3100 intervention. ResultsCompared with the Sham group, the number of migrated cells in the lower chamber was significantly increased in the Sham+CIA and OVX+CIA groups (P<0.05, P<0.01). The mRNA expression of RORγt, IL-17, TNF-α, CXCR4, PI3K, and Akt was significantly upregulated, whereas FoxP3, IL-10, and TGF-β mRNA expression was significantly decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). Protein expression of RORγt, CXCR4, p-PI3K/PI3K, and p-Akt/Akt was significantly increased, while FoxP3 protein expression was markedly decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the OVX+CIA group, the OVX+CIA+YSJB group and OVX+CIA+MTX group showed significantly reduced migration (P<0.05), mRNA expression of RORγt, IL-17, TNF-α, CXCR4, PI3K, and Akt was also significantly decreased, while FoxP3, IL-10, and TGF-β mRNA expression was significantly increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). RORγt protein expression was significantly downregulated, and FoxP3 protein expression markedly upregulated (P<0.05). In the OVX+CIA+YSJB group, CXCR4, p-PI3K/PI3K, and p-Akt/Akt protein expression was significantly decreased (P<0.05). Compared with the OVX+CIA group, RORγt, CXCR4, PI3K, and Akt mRNA expression in CD4⁺T cells was significantly decreased in the OVX+CIA+AMD3100 group and the OVX+CIA+YSJB+AMD3100 group, while FoxP3 mRNA and protein expression was significantly upregulated (P<0.05, P<0.01). RORγt, CXCR4, p-PI3K/PI3K, and p-Akt/Akt protein expression was also markedly decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the OVX+CIA+AMD3100 group, the OVX+CIA+YSJB+AMD3100 group showed significantly decreased RORγt and Akt mRNA expression (P<0.05) and significantly lower p-Akt/Akt protein expression (P<0.05). ConclusionYSJB-containing bone marrow fluid suppresses CD4⁺T-cell migration and regulates Th17/Treg balance by downregulating Th17-associated signature factors and upregulating Treg-associated signature factors through inhibition of the SDF-1/CXCR4 signaling pathway and PI3K/Akt signaling pathway. The SDF-1/CXCR4 signaling pathway is one of the targets through which YSJB inhibits CD4⁺T-cell differentiation.
4.Ritual reconstruction: the possibility of a new confucian theory for contemporary bioethics
Chinese Medical Ethics 2026;39(1):1-11
Contemporary bioethics (including medical ethics) encompasses three distinctly different theories: principlism, pluralistic casuistry, and ritual reconstruction. They differ in many respects, but the primary distinction lies in their respective starting points for ethical thinking: principlism begins with principles, pluralistic casuistry starts with cases, while ritual reconstruction is grounded in rituals. In fact, the first two theories have gained popularity worldwide, while the third theory requires us to construct it based on Confucian classical ethics. This paper explores how the characteristics of ritual guidance and the doctrine of the mean in Confucian classical ethics inspire us to propose this new theory, outlining its main points.
5.Association of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes with blood lipid profiles and cardiovascular prognosis in post-percutaneous coronary intervention atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease patients: a prospective cohort study
Huangyu XU ; Qian LI ; Haozhe XIONG ; Weidong HONG ; Xinyi ZHOU ; Xiaoyan LU ; Xiaoli LIU ; Xinrong FAN
Digital Chinese Medicine 2026;9(1):91-102
Objective:
Patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are classified as very-high-risk individuals in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification. The distribution pattern of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndromes in this patient population, as well as its association with blood lipid profiles and clinical prognosis, remains unclear. The present prospective cohort study aims to investigate these correlations, thereby providing insights to enrich the research fields.
Methods:
We enrolled consecutive patients with ASCVD who underwent PCI at the Integrated Cardiology Unit of China-Japan Friendship Hospital between September 1, 2020 and December 31, 2022. Demographics and clinical characteristics, signs and symptoms defining each TCM syndrome, and fasting venous blood samples were collected at baseline and follow up or upon major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). We analyzed the correlation between TCM syndromes, blood lipid profiles, and MACEs, and developed a new joint prognostic model incorporating both TCM syndromes and blood lipids using logistic regression. The analyses were based on detailed baseline and one-year follow-up data.
Results:
A per-protocol analysis was performed on 586 patients with complete data ultimately. During the one-year follow-up, 174 patients (29.69%) experienced a MACE. We performed statistical analyses on comorbidities, medication, and biochemical indicators across groups defined by TCM syndrome differentiation. When comparing different TCM syndromes, no significant differences were found in age, body mass index (BMI), history of revascularization, comorbidities, family history of CVD, smoking or drinking, or statin intensity (P > 0.05). Patients with intertwined phlegm and blood stasis syndrome exhibited significantly higher levels of total cholesterol (TC, 5.27 ± 1.18 mmol/L, P < 0.001), triglyceride (TG, 1.96 ± 1.33 mmol/L, P = 0.008), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, 3.35 ± 0.79 mmol/L, P < 0.001), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, 1.24 ± 0.81 mmol/L, P < 0.001) compared with those with other TCM syndromes combined. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to predict MACEs. The model included TCM syndrome type [with intertwined phlegm and blood stasis as a predictor, adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.413, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.517 – 3.864, P = 0.501], age (adjusted OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.955 – 1.001, P = 0.057), male gender (adjusted OR = 0.698, 95% CI: 0.416 – 1.170, P = 0.173), TC (adjusted OR = 1.004, 95% CI: 0.513 – 1.965, P = 0.990), and LDL-C (adjusted OR = 5.825, 95% CI: 2.214 – 15.326, P < 0.001). This model demonstrated good discriminatory ability for MACEs in post-PCI ASCVD patients [the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) = 0.865, 95% CI: 0.816 – 0.914].
Conclusion
The intertwined phlegm and blood stasis TCM syndrome is associated with a distinct atherogenic lipid profile characterized by elevated levels of TC and LDL-C. The prognostic model that incorporates this TCM syndrome type along with conventional lipid parameters (TC and LDL-C) shows good discriminatory ability for predicting MACEs in ASCVD patients after PCI, underscoring the potential clinical utility of integrating TCM syndrome differentiation into CVD risk assessment.
6.Effect of Shenge Bushen Capsules and Its Polysaccharides and Flavonoids on Precocious Puberty in Young Mice
Hong SUN ; Fan LEI ; Chenggong LI ; Shixian HU ; Weihua WANG ; Bin REN ; Juan HAO ; Rui LUO ; Lijun DU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(1):95-103
ObjectiveTo explore the effect of Shenge Bushen Capsules (SBC) on sexual development in normal 3-week-old mice. MethodsThe experiment consisted of two parts. In the first part, mice were divided into four groups: The control group and the low, medium, and high-dose SBC groups (234.7, 469.4, 938.7 mg·kg-1, respectively). In the second part, mice were divided into four groups: Control group, Pseudostellariae Radix polysaccharide (PRP) group, total flavonoids group, and SBC group, all receiving a dose of 469.4 mg·kg-1. After 7 days of administration, the vaginal opening of female mice and the descent of testes and scrotum in male mice, as well as the ovarian and testicular organ indices, were observed. After 4 weeks of administration, female and male mice were housed together for 2 days, and the pregnancy rate of females was monitored. After delivery, the pregnant female mice continued receiving the treatment for 4 weeks, and the sexual development of their offspring, including vaginal opening, testicular descent, and organ indices of ovaries and testes, was observed. Serum sex hormones were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and the expression of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) and growth hormone (GH) proteins in the hypothalamus was assessed by Western blot. ResultsCompared with the control group, there was no significant effect on the vaginal opening of female mice or the descent of testes in male mice after 7 days of SBC administration. After 4 weeks of administration, the pregnancy rate in the low-dose group was significantly reduced (P<0.05), but no significant effects were observed in the other groups. The three doses of SBC did not significantly affect the ovarian or testicular organ indices, and there was no significant upregulation in the expression of GnRH or GH in the hypothalamus. The primary component of SBC, Pseudostellariae Radix polysaccharide, significantly reduced the vaginal opening in female mice after 7 days of administration (P<0.05). After 4 weeks, the serum estradiol levels of non-pregnant female mice were decreased (P<0.05), but there was no significant effect on the expression of GnRH or GH proteins in the hypothalamus of either male or female mice. Additionally, there were no significant effects on precocious puberty indicators, such as vaginal opening and testicular descent, in the offspring mice. ConclusionSBC does not significantly promote precocious puberty in young mice, and it does not have any noticeable effects on the pregnancy rate of adult mice or the sexual development of their offspring.
7.Mechanisms of Intestinal Microecology in Hyperuricemia and Traditional Chinese Medicine Intervention:A Review
Mingyuan FAN ; Jiuzhu YUAN ; Hongyan XIE ; Sai ZHANG ; Qiyuan YAO ; Luqi HE ; Qingqing FU ; Hong GAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(5):329-338
In recent years, hyperuricemia (HUA) has shown a rapidly increasing incidence and tends to occur in increasingly young people, with a wide range of cardiac, renal, joint, and cancerous hazards and all-cause mortality associations. Western medicine treatment has limitations such as large liver and kidney damage, medication restriction, and easy recurrence. The intestine is the major extra-renal excretion pathway for uric acid (UA), and the intestinal microecology can be regulated to promote UA degradation. It offers great potential to develop UA-lowering strategies that target the intestinal microecology, which are promising to provide safer and more effective therapeutic approaches. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) can treat HUA via multiple targets and multiple pathways from a holistic view, with low toxicity and side effects. Studies have shown that intestinal microecology is a crucial target for TCM in the treatment of HUA. However, its specific mechanism of action has not been fully elucidated. Focusing on the key role of intestinal microecology in HUA, this review explores the relationship between intestinal microecology and HUA in terms of intestinal flora, intestinal metabolites, intestinal UA transporters, and intestinal barriers. Furthermore, we summarize the research progress in TCM treatment of HUA by targeting the intestinal microecology, with the aim of providing references for the development of TCM intervention strategies for HUA and the direction of future research.
8.Changes and Trends in the microbiological-related standards in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2025 Edition
FAN Yiling ; ZHU Ran ; YANG Yan ; JIANG Bo ; SONG Minghui ; WANG Jing ; LI Qiongqiong ; LI Gaomin ; WANG Shujuan ; SHAO Hong ; MA Shihong ; CAO Xiaoyun ; HU Changqin ; MA Shuangcheng, ; YANG Meicheng
Drug Standards of China 2025;26(1):093-098
Objective: To systematically analyze the revisions content and technological development trends of microbiological standards in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia (ChP) 2025 Edition, and explore its novel requirements in risk-based pharmaceutical product lifecycle management.
Methods: A comprehensive review was conducted on 26 microbiological-related standards to summarize the revision directions and scientific implications from perspectives including the revision overview, international harmonization of microbiological standards, risk-based quality management system, and novel tools and methods with Chinese characteristics.
Results: The ChP 2025 edition demonstrates three prominent features in microbiological-related standards: enhanced international harmonization, introduced emerging molecular biological technologies, and established a risk-based microbiological quality control system.
Conclusion: The new edition of the Pharmacopoeia has systematically constructed a microbiological standard system, which significantly improves the scientificity, standardization and applicability of the standards, providing a crucial support for advancing the microbiological quality control in pharmaceutical industries of China.
9.Effects of Huoxue Xiaoyi Formula (活血消异方) on Tfh Cells and the JAK/STAT Pathway in Ectopic Tissues of Ovarian Endometriosis Model Rats
Weisen FAN ; Yongjia ZHANG ; Yaqian WANG ; Hong LEI ; Huiting YAN ; Ruijie HOU ; Xin WANG ; Yu TAO ; Ruihua ZHAO
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(14):1473-1480
ObjectiveTo explore the potential mechanism of Huoxue Xiaoyi Formula (活血消异方, HXF) in treating ovarian endometriosis (OEM) from the perspective of T follicular helper (Tfh) cells and the Janus kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription (JAK/STAT) signaling pathway. MethodsForty-five female SD rats with normal estrous cycles were randomly divided into three groups, HXF group, model group, and normal group, with 15 rats in each group. A rat model of OEM was established by autologous endometrial tissue implantation. After successful modeling, the treatment group received HXF at 5.85 g/(kg·d) by gavage for 14 consecutive days. The model group and normal group received 1 mL/d of normal saline by gavage. RNA-sequencing data from human proliferative-phase endometriotic and normal endometrial tissues were downloaded from the GEO database. Transcriptomic sequencing was used to analyze gene expression in rat ovarian ectopic tissues and normal uterine tissues, and comparisons were made with human data to verify JAK/STAT pathway activation in proliferative-phase ectopic tissues. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the positive expression of CXC chemokine receptor 5 (CXCR5) and interleukin-21 (IL-21) in rat ovarian ectopic and normal uterine tissues. Western Blotting was performed to detect the protein levels of IL-21, IL-21 receptor (IL-21R), Janus kinase 1 (JAK1), signal transducer and activator of transcription 6 (STAT6), and B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2). Tfh cell infiltration was analyzed using immune cell infiltration methods. ResultsGene set enrichment analysis showed that the JAK/STAT pathway was significantly activated in human proliferative-phase endometriotic tissues compared to normal endometrial tissues. Similarly, the JAK/STAT pathway was markedly activated in rat ovarian ectopic tissues in the model group compared to the normal group, but suppressed in the HXF group compared to the model group. Compared with normal uterine tissues, ovarian ectopic tissues in the model group showed increased Tfh cell infiltration scores, higher CXCR5 and IL-21 expression, and elevated levels of IL-21, IL-21R, JAK1, STAT6, and Bcl-2 proteins. Compared with the model group, HXF group showed reduced CXCR5 and IL-21 expression and decreased protein levels of IL-21, IL-21R, JAK1, STAT6, and Bcl-2. ConclusionHXF may suppress activation of the JAK/STAT signaling pathway in ovarian endometriotic tissues by inhibiting IL-21 secretion from Tfh cells.
10.Prediction of suitable habitats of Phlebotomus chinensis in Gansu Province based on the Biomod2 ensemble model
Dawei YU ; Yandong HOU ; Aiwei HE ; Yu FENG ; Guobing YANG ; Chengming YANG ; Hong LIANG ; Hailiang ZHANG ; Fan LI
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(3):276-283
Objective To investigate the suitable habitats of Phlebotomus chinensis in Gansu Province, so as provide insights into effective management of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL). Methods The geographical coordinates of locations where MT-ZVL cases were reported were retrieved in Gansu Province from 2015 to 2023, and data pertaining to 26 environmental variables were captured, including 19 climatic variables (annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter), five geographical variables (elevation, annual normalized difference vegetation index, vegetation type, landform type and land use type), and two population and economic variables (population distribution and gross domestic product). Twelve species distribution models were built using the biomod2 package in R project, including surface range envelope (SRE) model, generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model, generalized boosted model (GBM), classification tree analysis (CTA) model, flexible discriminant analysis (FDA) model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, optimized maximum entropy (MAXNET) model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, random forest (RF) model, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST) model. The performance of 12 models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS), and Kappa coefficient, and single models with high performance was selected to build the optimal ensemble models. Factors affecting the survival of Ph. chinensis were identified based on climatic, geographical, population and economic variables. In addition, the suitable distribution areas of Ph. chinensis were predicted in Gansu Province under shared socioeconomic pathway 126 (SSP126), SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios based on climatic data during the period from 1991 to 2020, from 2041 to 2060 (2050s), and from 2081 to 2100 (2090s) . Results A total of 11 species distribution models were successfully built for prediction of potential distribution areas of Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province, and the RF model had the highest predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.998). The ensemble model built based on the RF model, XGBOOST model, GLM, and MARS model had an increased predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.999) relative to single models. Among the 26 environmental factors, precipitation of the wettest quarter (12.00%), maximum temperature of the warmest month (11.58%), and annual normalized difference vegetation index (11.29%) had the greatest contributions to suitable habitats distribution of Ph. sinensis. Under the climatic conditions from 1991 to 2020, the potential suitable habitat area for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province was approximately 5.80 × 104 km2, of which the highly suitable area was 1.42 × 104 km2, and primarily concentrated in the southernmost region of Gansu Province. By the 2050s, the unsuitable and lowly suitable areas for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province had decreased by varying degrees compared to that of 1991 to 2020 period, while the moderately and highly suitable areas exhibited expansion and migration. By the 2090s, under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitat area for Ph. chinensis increased significantly, and under the SSP585 scenario, the highly suitable areas transformed into extremely suitable areas, also showing substantial growth. Future global warming is conducive to the survival and reproduction of Ph. chinensis. From the 2050s to the 2090s, the highly suitable areas for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province will be projected to expand northward. Under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitat area for Ph. chinensis in Gansu Province is expected to increase by 194.75% and 204.79% in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, compared to that of the 1991 to 2020 period. Under the SSP370 scenario, the moderately and highly suitable areas will be projected to increase by 164.40% and 209.03% in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, while under the SSP585 scenario, they are expected to increase by 195.98% and 211.66%, respectively. Conclusions The distribution of potential suitable habitats of Ph. sinensis gradually shifts with climatic changes. Intensified surveillance and management of Ph. sinensis is recommended in central and eastern parts of Gansu Province to support early warning of MT-ZVL.

Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail