1.Study on non-invasive diagnosis of rejection after kidney transplantation using hyperspectral imaging technology
Zhe YANG ; Qilong DUAN ; Yi CHEN ; Tao LIAO ; Xiaoqing SI ; Jianning WANG
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):116-123
Objective To explore a method for rapid and differential diagnosis of rejection after kidney transplantation through urine hyperspectral imaging technology. Methods Hyperspectral data information from urine samples of 118 recipients after kidney transplantation was collected, and a deep learning model was constructed to diagnose and classify the types of rejection. Results A deep learning diagnostic model based on the 34-layer residual network (ResNet-34) was constructed, and 118 patients were included and divided into the training set and the test set. Based on the pathological results of the transplanted kidney puncture, the urine samples of the patients were classified into five groups: the non-rejection group, the T-cell-mediated rejection group, the antibody-mediated rejection group, the mixed rejection group and the nephropathy recurrence group. The results showed that the diagnostic sensitivities of the model for the above five groups were 0.960, 0.980, 0.930, 0.940 and 0.943 respectively, and the diagnostic specificities were 0.983, 0.993, 0.997, 0.989 and 0.989 respectively. The overall diagnostic accuracy rate reached 95.7%. Conclusions The study provides a non-invasive, rapid and accurate auxiliary diagnostic method for the differential diagnosis of rejection after kidney transplantation.
2.Expert consensus on neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitors for locally advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma (2026)
LI Jinsong ; LIAO Guiqing ; LI Longjiang ; ZHANG Chenping ; SHANG Chenping ; ZHANG Jie ; ZHONG Laiping ; LIU Bing ; CHEN Gang ; WEI Jianhua ; JI Tong ; LI Chunjie ; LIN Lisong ; REN Guoxin ; LI Yi ; SHANG Wei ; HAN Bing ; JIANG Canhua ; ZHANG Sheng ; SONG Ming ; LIU Xuekui ; WANG Anxun ; LIU Shuguang ; CHEN Zhanhong ; WANG Youyuan ; LIN Zhaoyu ; LI Haigang ; DUAN Xiaohui ; YE Ling ; ZHENG Jun ; WANG Jun ; LV Xiaozhi ; ZHU Lijun ; CAO Haotian
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2026;34(2):105-118
Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a common head and neck malignancy. Approximately 50% to 60% of patients with OSCC are diagnosed at a locally advanced stage (clinical staging III-IVa). Even with comprehensive and sequential treatment primarily based on surgery, the 5-year overall survival rate remains below 50%, and patients often suffer from postoperative functional impairments such as difficulties with speaking and swallowing. Programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1) inhibitors are increasingly used in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC and have shown encouraging efficacy. However, clinical practice still faces key challenges, including the definition of indications, optimization of combination regimens, and standards for efficacy evaluation. Based on the latest research advances worldwide and the clinical experience of the expert group, this expert consensus systematically evaluates the application of PD-1 inhibitors in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC, covering combination strategies, treatment cycles and surgical timing, efficacy assessment, use of biomarkers, management of special populations and immune related adverse events, principles for immunotherapy rechallenge, and function preservation strategies. After multiple rounds of panel discussion and through anonymous voting using the Delphi method, the following consensus statements have been formulated: 1) Neoadjuvant therapy with PD-1 inhibitors can be used preoperatively in patients with locally advanced OSCC. The preferred regimen is a PD-1 inhibitor combined with platinum based chemotherapy, administered for 2-3 cycles. 2) During the efficacy evaluation of neoadjuvant therapy, radiographic assessment should follow the dual criteria of Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 and immune RECIST (iRECIST). After surgery, systematic pathological evaluation of both the primary lesion and regional lymph nodes is required. For combination chemotherapy regimens, PD-L1 expression and combined positive score need not be used as mandatory inclusion or exclusion criteria. 3) For special populations such as the elderly (≥ 70 years), individuals with stable HIV viral load, and carriers of chronic HBV/HCV, PD-1 inhibitors may be used cautiously under the guidance of a multidisciplinary team (MDT), with close monitoring for adverse events. 4) For patients with a poor response to neoadjuvant therapy, continuation of the original treatment regimen is not recommended; the subsequent treatment plan should be adjusted promptly after MDT assessment. Organ transplant recipients and patients with active autoimmune diseases are not recommended to receive neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor therapy due to the high risk of immune related activation. Rechallenge is generally not advised for patients who have experienced high risk immune related adverse events such as immune mediated myocarditis, neurotoxicity, or pneumonitis. 5) For patients with a good pathological response, individualized de escalation surgery and function preservation strategies can be explored. This consensus aims to promote the standardized, safe, and precise application of neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor strategies in the management of locally advanced OSCC patients.
3.Risk factors for 90-day mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure and establishment of a predictive model
Jing SUN ; Tingji WANG ; Zhijiao DUAN ; Li ZHANG ; Yanmei LI
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(1):151-159
ObjectiveTo investigate the independent predictive factors for 90-day mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), to establish a risk predictive model, and to assess its predictive efficacy in comparison with MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 394 patients with ACLF who were admitted to The Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University and Hohhot Second Hospital from July 2018 to July 2024, and general information and laboratory markers on admission were collected from all patients. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of quantitative data between two groups, and the chi-square test or the adjusted chi-square test was used for comparison of qualitative data between two groups. The LASSO regression analysis was used to identify related variables, and the multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to establish a predictive model and generate a nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), calibration curve, and clinical decision curve were used to assess the performance of the model. ResultsA total of 394 patients with ACLF were included in this study, with 136 patients in the training set, 58 in the internal validation set, and 200 in the external validation set. The cohort had a mean age of 52.9±11.7 years, among whom male patients accounted for 72.84% (287/394), the patients with HBV infection accounted for 22.33% (88/394), the patients with alcohol-related causes accounted for 45.94% (181/394), and the patients with other causes (including drug-induced and autoimmune diseases) accounted for 31.73% (125/394). The overall 90-day mortality rate was 27.41% (108/394). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes (odds ratio [OR]= 5.831, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.587 — 21.424, P=0.008), cystatin C (Cys-C) (OR=2.984, 95%CI: 1.501 — 5.933, P=0.002), and spontaneous peritonitis (SBP) (OR=5.692, 95%CI: 2.150 — 15.071, P<0.001) were independent risk factors, and a nomogram was generated based on these factors. This model had an AUC of 0.836 in the training set, 0.881 in the internal validation set, and 0.878 in the external validation set, showing a good discriminatory ability. The calibration curve showed a good degree of fitting, with a relatively high net clinical benefit. The subgroup analysis based on etiology showed that the model had an AUC of 0.850 in the patients with HBV infection, 0.858 in the patients with alcohol-induced ACLF, and 0.908 in the patients with other etiologies, indicating that the model had a good discriminatory ability across the populations with different etiologies. Compared with traditional scores, the model (AUC=0.836) had a significantly better predictive value than MELD (AUC=0.619, Z=3.197, P=0.001), MELD-Na (AUC=0.651, Z=2.998, P=0.003), MELD 3.0 (AUC=0.601, Z=3.682, P<0.001), and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ (AUC=0.719, Z=2.396, P=0.017) alone. ConclusionDiabetes, SBP, and Cys-C are independent risk factors for 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF. Compared with MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ scores, this model has a higher predictive value for 90-day prognosis in patients with ACLF and is suitable for patients with ACLF caused by various etiologies.
4.Clinical phenotype and genetic analysis of a child with Autosomal dominant intellectual developmental disorder type 5 caused by SYNGAP1 gene variant: A case report and literature review.
Zihao WANG ; Lifen DUAN ; Zhangxiang WANYAN ; Ruixi TAO ; Weitao YE ; Zhaoqing YANG
Chinese Journal of Medical Genetics 2026;43(3):213-219
OBJECTIVE:
To delineate the clinical and genetic features of a Chinese girl harboring a rare de novo variant of SYNGAP1 associated with Mental retardation, autosomal dominant 5 (MRD5), and to conduct a comprehensive genotype-phenotype correlation analysis within the Chinese population through an extensive literature review.
METHODS:
A 5-year-old girl presenting with seizures without an obvious cause was enrolled in September 2020. Genomic DNA was extracted from the patient and her parents. Whole exome sequencing (WES) was performed on the proband to identify suspected pathogenic variants based on her clinical phenotype. Sanger sequencing was used for validation, followed by bioinformatic analysis of the variant. Additionally, data from 54 previously reported Chinese cases with SYNGAP1 variants were integrated to summarize the distribution of variant types and clinical characteristics. Ethical approval was obtained from the Ethics Committee of Kunming Children's Hospital (Ethics No.: 2021-03-055-K01).
RESULTS:
WES identified a heterozygous nonsense variant, SYNGAP1 c.725G>A (p.Trp242*), in the proband. Sanger sequencing confirmed it was a de novo variant. According to the ACMG guidelines, this variant was classified as pathogenic (PVS1+PS2). Based on the clinical manifestations, the patient was diagnosed with MRD5. Bioinformatic analysis suggested that this variant introduces a premature stop codon at tryptophan 242, disrupting the PH domain and leading to the loss of the C2, Ras-GAP, and C-terminal domains. The pooled analysis of Chinese cases revealed that nonsense (38.2%) and frameshift (36.4%) variants were the predominant types. Intellectual disability/developmental delay was present in 100.0% of patients, epilepsy in 83.6%, and autism spectrum disorder in 41.3%. The incidence of epilepsy differed significantly among variant types (P = 0.045). Exons 8 and 15 were identified as mutation hotspots.
CONCLUSION
This study has identified a SYNGAP1 c.725G>A variant in the Chinese population and confirmed it as a potential cause of MRD5, which expanded the mutational spectrum of this disorder.
Humans
;
Female
;
Child, Preschool
;
Intellectual Disability/genetics*
;
ras GTPase-Activating Proteins/genetics*
;
Phenotype
;
Exome Sequencing
;
Genetic Association Studies
5.Genetic disease diagnosis and treatment in Shanghai: Survey and countermeasures for clinical genetics specialist training.
Xiaoju HUANG ; Lin HAN ; Li CAO ; Taosheng HUANG ; Duan MA ; Jian WANG ; Wenjuan QIU ; Fanyi ZENG ; Luming SUN ; Chenming XU ; Songchang CHEN ; Xinyu KUANG ; Hong TIAN
Chinese Journal of Medical Genetics 2026;43(4):241-247
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the current status of clinical genetics specialization development and the diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities for hereditary diseases across medical institutions in Shanghai, and to assess the necessity and feasibility of establishing training bases for clinical genetics specialists.
METHODS:
By employing a cross-sectional survey design, the Clinical Genetics Committee of Shanghai Medical Association has conducted questionnaire surveys from March to April 2025 across 54 healthcare institutions in Shanghai (including 33 tertiary hospitals and 21 secondary hospitals). The survey involved administrative departments and medical personnel from 15 clinical specialties. The survey has covered current genetic disease diagnosis and treatment practices, relevant and specialised disease types, genetic department establishment, testing capabilities, personnel teams, and training requirements.
RESULTS:
The results revealed that 78.0% of clinical departments surveyed had treated patients with hereditary disorders. Shanghai possesses diagnostic and therapeutic expertise for over 95% of hereditary diseases listed in its rare disease catalogue, reflecting both the practical clinical demand for such conditions and the city's overall diagnostic and therapeutic strengths in this field. Nevertheless, significant disparities exist in the development of genetics departments across different tiers of healthcare institutions. Resources for genetic testing capabilities (including molecular, cellular, and biochemical testing) are also unevenly distributed across different tiers of hospitals. The survey further revealed that only 26.0% of departments believe that their current physician structure fully meets the diagnostic and treatment demands. Over 90% of departments consider standard training for clinical genetic specialists necessary, with 74.0% expressing willingness to participate in establishing training bases. Based on above findings and thorough deliberation, the Clinical Genetics Committee of the Shanghai Medical Association proposes advancing specialist training and discipline development through establishing a standard training system. The committee has drafted a three-year training protocol featuring a "joint training"-centered model, recommending a pilot-first, dynamically optimized strategy for steadily advancing training base development.
CONCLUSION
Shanghai faces substantial demand for genetic disease diagnosis and treatment, yet exhibits shortcomings in clinical genetics specialization development, resource allocation, and talent pipeline cultivation. To establish a standard training system holds significant practical importance and is underpinned by a broad demand.
Humans
;
China
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
;
Genetic Diseases, Inborn/genetics*
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Genetics, Medical/education*
;
Genetic Testing
6.Modern Clinical Applications and Mechanism of Zhigancao Tang: A Review
Zhibo CHANG ; Chuhan DUAN ; Xiaoyan WANG ; Jing SHAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(11):361-370
Zhigancao Tang, derived from the Treatise on Cold Damage,is a classic and renowned formula for treating "intermittent and irregular pulse, and palpitations of the heart". It has an exquisite formulation. By replenishing Qi, nourishing Yin, activating Yang, and restoring the pulse, it achieves the dual supplementation of Yin and Yang, and the simultaneous treatment of Qi and blood. With the practical expansion by practitioners over successive dynasties, the application scope of this formula has been continuously expanding, extending from traditional cardiovascular diseases to diseases of multiple systems, fully reflecting the theoretical characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) of "treating different diseases with the same method". Modern research shows that Zhigancao Tang not only has a remarkable curative effect on cardiovascular diseases but is also widely applied to diseases of the respiratory, nervous, digestive, endocrine, oncologic, gynecologic, and otorhinolaryngologic systems, demonstrating its interdisciplinary clinical application value. At the same time, research on the mechanism of action of Zhigancao Tang is also continuously deepening. The mechanisms by which it treats diseases involve multiple aspects, including anti-arrhythmic effects, myocardial protection, anti-fibrosis, antioxidative stress and anti‑inflammatory effects, regulation of glucose and lipid metabolism, enhancing hematopoietic function, and improving hemorheology. These mechanisms work synergistically to jointly regulate the physiological functions of the body and play a role in treating diseases. However, there are still some deficiencies in current research. For example, the sample size of some clinical trials is small, most of the mechanism studies are based on animal models or in vitro experiments, there is insufficient high-quality evidence from clinical trials, the composition of the compound formula is complex, and the pharmacodynamic material basis and the rules of compatibility still need to be deeply analyzed. By consulting relevant literature, this article systematically summarizes the modern clinical application and action mechanism of Zhigancao Tang, aiming to provide new ideas for its subsequent in-depth research and clinical application, promote the integrated development of classic TCM formulas and modern medicine, and further explore its great potential in clinical treatment.
7.Primary Cilium-mediated Mechano-metabolic Coupling: Cross-system Homeostatic Regulation of The Nervous, Bone, Vascular, and Renal Systems
Liang-Chen DUAN ; Hao-Liang HU ; Shu-Zhi WANG ; Jia-Long YAN ; Lin-Xi CHEN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(3):577-592
Primary cilia—those solitary, microtubule-based projections extending from the surface of most eukaryotic cells—are increasingly recognized not merely as cellular appendages, but as sophisticated signaling hubs. By compartmentalizing specific receptors (e.g., GPCRs) and effectors within a microdomain guarded by the transition zone, these organelles function effectively as high-gain sensors capable of integrating mechanical stimuli with metabolic cues. In this review, we examine the pivotal role of primary cilia across the nervous, bone-vascular, and renal landscapes, arguing for a unified “mechano-metabolic coupling” framework. Here, conserved ciliary modules are not static; rather, they are differentially deployed to uphold systemic homeostasis. Within the central nervous system, we position primary cilia as upstream integrators. We highlight how hypothalamic neuronal cilia concentrate metabolic receptors, such as the melanocortin 4 receptor (MC4R), to interpret energy status. Moreover, the recent identification of serotonergic “axon-cilium synapses” points to a direct mode of neurotransmission, wherein 5-HT6 receptors drive nuclear signaling and chromatin accessibility to rapidly modulate gene expression. Through these mechanisms, central cilia modulate sympathetic tone and neuroendocrine output, effectively establishing the mechanical and metabolic “boundary conditions” under which peripheral organs operate. Dysfunction in these central hubs is linked to obesity and neurodevelopmental disorders, including Bardet-Biedl syndrome. In peripheral tissues, cilia serve as versatile mechanotransducers that convert physical forces into biochemical responses. Regarding the bone-vascular system, we discuss the translation of mechanical loads and fluid shear stress into structural remodeling. In osteoblasts, specifically, ciliary integrity is intrinsically linked to cholesterol and glucose metabolism, fine-tuning the balance between Hedgehog and Wnt/β-catenin signaling to govern osteogenesis and bone repair. A similar dynamic exists in the vasculature, where endothelial cilia sense shear stress to modulate KLF4 expression and endothelial-to-mesenchymal transition—processes critical for valvulogenesis and vascular remodeling. Meanwhile, in the kidney, tubular cilia act as terminal effectors within a “shear-cilia-metabolism” axis. Here, fluid shear stress engages ciliary signaling to trigger AMPK-mediated lipophagy and mitochondrial biogenesis, thereby securing the ATP supply required for solute transport. Notably, dysregulation of this axis leads to metabolic reprogramming and aberrant proliferation, acting as a hallmark driver of cystogenesis in polycystic kidney disease (PKD). Crucially, this review attempts to dissect the often-conflated logic of cross-system integration by distinguishing 3 non-equivalent pathways: direct communication via ciliary extracellular vesicles, though this remains largely hypothetical in long-range signaling; “physiology-mediated cascades”, where ciliary dysfunction in a single organ—such as the kidney—precipitates systemic pathology through hemodynamic and metabolic shifts (e.g., altered blood pressure, fluid volume, or uremic toxins); and “parallel molecular defects”, where shared genetic mutations in ubiquitous components like the IFT machinery cause simultaneous, independent failures across multiple organ systems. Building on these distinctions, we propose a nested-loop model that links central set-points with peripheral feedback via physiological variables. Furthermore, we construct a “causality-to-translation” roadmap that pinpoints structural repair (e.g., targeting IFT assembly) and metabolic rescue (e.g., AMPK activation or autophagy induction) as promising therapeutic avenues. Ultimately, this framework provides a theoretical basis for deciphering the shared pathological mechanisms of multisystem ciliopathies, offering a strategic guide for the development of targeted interventions that go beyond symptomatic treatment.
8.Three-dimensional displacement and risk factors of midshaft clavicle fractures treated with titanium elastic intramedullary nailing
Junwei ZHANG ; Lingling CHEN ; Zhenyuan MA ; Weizhi NIE ; Chaohui LI ; Haitao WANG ; Laibao DUAN ; Jinyong HOU ; Hongzheng BI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(2):269-277
BACKGROUND:Titanium elastic intramedullary nailing for the treatment of significantly displaced midshaft clavicle fractures has the characteristics of minimally invasive and elastic fixation.The displacement of the fracture is closely related to the later function.However,there are few studies on the three-dimensional displacement analysis of the fracture ends before surgery and after intramedullary fixation such as titanium elastic intramedullary nailing.OBJECTIVE:To explore the three-dimensional displacement of fracture ends after midshaft clavicle fracture and fixation with titanium elastic intramedullary nails,and to analyze the risk factors.METHODS:A total of 91 patients with midshaft clavicle fracture(fracture end shortening ≥15 mm)admitted to Wendeng Orthopedic Hospital of Shandong Province from April 2019 to April 2024 were selected,including 57 males and 34 females,aged(51.73±10.21)years old.All patients received closed reduction and internal fixation with titanium elastic intramedullary nail.CT scans of the affected clavicle were performed before and on the first day after surgery.The CT data were imported into Mimics software for modeling.The length of the clavicle,lateral displacement of the fracture end,and rotation of the distal end of the fracture along the X,Y,and Z axes were measured and recorded before and after surgery.Pearson correlation coefficient was used for correlation analysis of various parameters,and generalized linear regression was used to evaluate risk factors.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Preoperatively,the variable that increased the risk of lateral displacement was the number of comminuted bone fragments,the variable that increased the risk of shortening displacement was male patients,and the variable that increased the risk of Z-axis rotation was the left limb.Shortening displacement was significantly positively correlated with lateral displacement(r=0.715,P<0.001);shortening displacement was significantly positively correlated with X-axis rotation displacement and Y-axis rotation displacement(r=0.265,P=0.028;r=0.303,P=0.011);lateral displacement was significantly positively correlated with Y-axis rotation and Z-axis rotation(r=0.258,P=0.032;r=0.250,P=0.038);X-axis rotation was significantly positively correlated with Y-axis rotation(r=0.382,P=0.001),and Z-axis rotation was significantly positively correlated with Y-axis rotation(r=0.280,P=0.020).(2)Postoperatively:The number of scapula fractures and comminuted bone fragments were variables that increased the risk of postoperative shortening and lateral displacement:Preoperative X-,Y-,and Z-axis rotation displacements were risk variables that increased postoperative X-,Y-,and Z-axis rotation displacements,respectively.Postoperative lateral displacement was significantly positively correlated with postoperative shortening and displacement(r=0.584,P=0.000),and postoperative lateral displacement was also significantly positively correlated with postoperative Y axis rotation and Z axis rotation(r=0.360,P=0.002;r=0.250,P=0.038).Postoperative Y axis rotation was significantly positively correlated with postoperative Z axis rotation(r=0.248,P=0.040).(3)The results showed that the three-dimensional displacement of the clavicle end before and after surgery was affected by many factors,especially the number of comminuted bone fragments,scapula fractures,gender,and original rotation displacement.At the same time,there were complex correlations between various displacements,especially the correlation between shortening displacement and lateral displacement was the strongest.
9.Standards for the Application of Hemodynamic Monitoring Technology in Critical Care
Hua ZHAO ; Hongmin ZHANG ; Xin DING ; Huan CHEN ; Jun DUAN ; Wei DU ; Bo TANG ; Yuankai ZHOU ; Dongkai LI ; Xinchen WANG ; Cui WANG ; Gaosheng ZHOU ; Xiaoting WANG
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):73-85
With the rapid advancement of hemodynamic indices and monitoring technologies, their classification methods and application processes have become increasingly complex. Currently, no unified standard hasbeen established, making it difficult to fully meet the clinical requirements for hemodynamic management. To assist in hemodynamic monitoring assessment and therapeutic decision-making in critically ill patients, the Critical Hemodynamic Therapy Collaborative Group, in conjunction with the Critical Ultrasound Study Group, has jointly developed the Standard for the Application of Hemodynamic Monitoring Techniques in Critical Care. The first part of this standard systematically categorizes hemodynamic indicators into flow indicators, pressure and its derivative indicators, and tissue perfusion indicators, while elaborating on the clinical application of each. The second part establishes a standardized clinical implementation pathway for hemodynamic monitoring. It proposes a tiered monitoring strategy-comprising basic, advanced, indication-specific, and special scenario monitoring-tailored to different clinical settings. It emphasizes the central role of critical care ultrasound across all levels of monitoring and establishes hemodynamic assessment standards for organs such as the brain, kidneys, and gastrointestinal tract. This standard aims to provide a unified framework for clinical practice, teaching, training, and research in critical care medicine, thereby promoting standardized development within the discipline.
10.Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Malignant Tumors Complicated by Acute Respiratory Failure: Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States
Zihan NAN ; Linan HAN ; Suwei LI ; Ziyi ZHU ; Qinqin ZHU ; Yan DUAN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Lixia LIU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):98-108
To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework. Clinical data of patients with malignant tumors and ARF were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States, including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory test indicators, and major interventions within the first 24 hours after ICU admission.The study outcome was ICU death.Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3.Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression.Five machine learning algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and C5.0 Decision Tree-were employed to construct predictive models.Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other metrics.The optimal model was further interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm. A total of 3196 patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF were included.The training set comprised 2, 261 patients and the validation set 935 patients; 683 patients died during ICU stay, while 2513 survived.LASSO regression ultimately selected 12 variables closely associated with patient ICU outcomes, including sepsis comorbidity, use of vasoactive drugs, and within the first 24 hours after ICU admission: minimum mean arterial pressure, maximum heart rate, maximum respiratory rate, minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum blood urea nitrogen, maximum white blood cell count, maximum mean corpuscular volume, maximum serum potassium, and maximum blood glucose.After model evaluation, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance.The AUCs for predicting ICU mortality risk in the training and validation sets were 0.940 and 0.763, respectively; accuracy was 88.3% and 81.2%;sensitivity was 98.5% and 95.9%.Its predictive performance also remained optimal in sensitivity analyses.SHAP analysis indicated that the top five variables contributing to the model's predictions were minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum mean arterial pressure, use of vasoactive drugs, and maximum white blood cell count. This study successfully developed a mortality risk prediction model for ICU patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF based on a large-scale dataset and performed explainability analysis.The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.


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